Steve Colt Institute of Social and Economic Research University of Alaska Anchorage
description
Transcript of Steve Colt Institute of Social and Economic Research University of Alaska Anchorage
Steve ColtInstitute of Social and Economic Research
University of Alaska [email protected]
Rev. 3 Feb 2003
Tourism and Alaska’s Future:An Economics Perspective
2
Our Fragile Economy:per capita income is down from
1990 to 2000
Alaska -2% (total change)
Anchorage -1%
Mat Su Borough +2%
Rest of coastal AK
-5%
Kodiak Island -15%
Ketchikan Borough
-2%
3
Our Fragile Economy: Real Income Growth Since 1990
$813
$251
$78
- $500 $0 $500 $1,000$1,500$2,000$2,500$3,000
Millions of 1998 $
LABORINCOME
INVESTMENTINCOME
GOVTTRANSFERS
(INC PFD)
4
Our Fragile Economy:Federal Aid per Person
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
98 $
Alaska
Wyoming
New York
North Dakota
Montana
US Average
1990 GROWTH 1990 TO 1995 GROWTH 1995 TO 1999
5
Our Fragile Economy:Farmed salmon dominates world
marketsWorld Salmon Supply
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
thou
sand
s of
met
ric
tons
Other Wild
Alaska
Farmed
6
Value of Alaska salmon is down
Wholesale Value, Ex-Vessel Value, & Processing Margin After Adjusting for Inflation: All Alaska Salmon
0.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
800.0
1000.0
1200.0
1400.0
1600.0
1800.0
Note: "Processing Margin" = First Wholesale Value - Ex Vessel Value
FirstwholesalevalueEx-vesselvalue
Processingmargin
7
AK Economy looks like US
Employment Mix by Industry (2000)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%M
ilitar
y
Extr
act
Infr
astr
uctu
re
Man
ufac
ture
Trad
e
Prof
essi
onal
Hos
pita
lity
Ed/H
ealth
/Gov
Alaska
Anc-MatSu
US
8
Alaska looks more like US over time
Employment Mix by Census Class of Worker
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
AK 1990 AK 2000 ANC-MatSu
US 2000
Self
Govt
Private Wage
9
84,000 Alaska Jobs Depend on Healthy Ecosystems (circa 1998)
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
Indirect
Direct
10
Tourism Industry (nonresidents)
• Marine environment is a major attraction
• “Soft adventure” is fastest growing segment, but…
• Many residents dislike the associated impacts (e.g., helicopters)
17,000 direct jobs
26,000 total jobs
11
Overall Tourism Growth has Slowed
Summer Visitor Arrivals 1989-2001(May - September)
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2001
tho
usa
nd
s o
f a
rriv
als
Cruise
Domestic Air
Highway
Ferry
12
What About Soft Adventure?…guided rafting on Chugach National Forest
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
Cli
en
t d
ays
Sixmile
Granite/Portage
Kenai
Copper River
Year
13
Guided and Charter-Supported Kayak Trips in PWS
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
Ind
ex (
1987
-88=
1.0)
Blackstone (P22)
Harriman (P09)
Culross Perry (P26)
Nellie Juan (P25)
Knight Island (P27)
Eshamy (P30)
Year
14
Recreation Industry (residents)
• Hard/impossible to measure - overlaps with tourism and sport fishing
• Important to many residents as a key benefit of living in Alaska (“permanent tourists”)
7,200 direct jobs 9,800 total jobs
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Nonresidents want Alaska Fish!
-
50
100
150
200
250
30019
89
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
Nu
mb
er
of
Lic
en
ses
(000
)
Non-resident
Resident
Source: CNF calculations using data from ADFG (1989-98)
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(circa 2000)
Endeavor to position Alaska as a year round destination, i.e., winter tourism
Increase total visitor expenditures statewide; endeavor to maintain or increase per trip expenditures. Attract a diverse mixture of visitors who travel to and within Alaska by a variety of travel modes. Increase independent visitation to Alaska. Increase visitation to non-urban Alaska. Maintain or Increase the average length of stay in Alaska. Maintain or increase the rate of new and repeat visitation.
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The Challenge of Capturing Value….
•From Drive-Through visitors•From Virtual visitors
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Disposition of Alaska Lands
104
44
152
736
State
ANCSA
Conservation
Other Fed
Other Private
Total 375 million acres
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Chugach National Forest Visitation
Total RVDs = 2.5 million
Viewing from railroads
1%
Viewing - other 4%
Viewing from cruise Ships 47%
Viewing from autos/buses
49%
Winter use 2%
Other 11%
Fishing 8%
Hiking 7%
Camping 21%
Viewing scenery, wildlife, fish
51%
RVD = recreation visitor day.
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Kenai NWR:
• $21 million on-site expenditures• PLUS, $28 million additional sport
fishing expenditures depend on refuge habitat
• $49 million total 950 jobs
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Kenai National Wildlife Refuge:292,000 visits (1997)
sportfish sport hunting
incidental nonconsumptive
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Kenai National Wildlife Refuge:$21 million visitor expenditure
(1997)
sportfish sport hunting
incidental nonconsumptive
23
sportfi sh
sport hunting
incidental
nonconsumptive
Visits
Expenditures
Kenai NWR
24
Bristol Bay NWRs:
• $21 million on-site expenditures• PLUS, $28 million additional sport
fishing expenditures depend on refuge habitat
• $49 million total 950 jobs
25
Bristol Bay Wildlife Refuges:20,453 visits (1996)
fishing hunting vis. Ctrs other
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Bristol Bay Wildlife Refuges:$2.4 million visitor expenditure
(1997)
sportfish sport hunting
incidental nonconsumptive
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Visits
Expenditures
fishing hunting vis. Ctrs other
sportfish sport hunting
incidental nonconsumptive
Bristol Bay NWRs
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The Challenge of Capturing Value….
•Use value–Consumptive–Nonconsumptive
•Option value•Existence Value
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Capturing the Value• The Potential:
– Average AK $ per person per trip?– $1,258 in 2001– Of which, how much on gifts/souvenirs?– $119– how much on Alaska Native arts/crafts?– $92– How much on clothing?– $58
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Why do People Visit Alaska
Why do People Live in Alaska?
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32
Reactions:
• Overall Numbers?• Numbers by Mode?
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Reactions:
• Where do people derive value?
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Reactions:
• Who are our “visitors?”