Returns to Public Investments in ECEC Oslo, NorwayImplementing Policies for High Quality Early Childhood Education and Care (ECEC)January 24, 2012

Steve Barnett, PhD

Why invest in ECEC?

First 5 years lay foundations for language, academic abilities, habits & socio-emotional development

The window for change does not close after age 5, but “catch up” is costly

Worldwide more than 200 million children under 5 are failing to reach their developmental potential

Preschool interventions can enhance development and yield high economic returns

ECEC programs 0-5 in the US produce long-term gains: 123 studies since 1960

What determines cognitive gains?

Time of Follow-Up Negative Research Design Quality Positive

Intentional Teaching PositiveIndividualization Positive(small groups and 1 on 1)Comprehensive Services Negative

n= 123 Studies

Nores and Barnett, 2009.

Effects of ECD Programs for 4 Outcomes by Type of Program: Global Research

Key Lessons Immediate impact should be twice the size of the desired long-

term impact

Multiple approaches effective

Education is a key component

Comprehensive services negative in the US, positive elsewhere—results depend on context/need

Potential Gains from ECEC InvestmentsEducational Success and Economic Productivity Achievement test scores Special education and grade repetition High school graduation Behavior problems, delinquency, and crime Employment, earnings, and welfare dependency Smoking, drug use, depression Decreased Costs to Government Schooling costs Social services costs Crime costs Health care costs (teen pregnancy and smoking)

Economic Returns to Pre-K for Disadvantaged Children

(In 2006 dollars, 3% discount rate) Cost

Benefits B/C

Perry Pre-K $17,599 $284,086 16

Abecedarian $70,697 $176,284 2.5

Chicago $ 8,224 $ 83,511 10Barnett, W. S., & Masse, L. N. (2007). Early childhood program design and economic returns: Comparative benefit-cost analysis of the Abecedarian program and policy implications, Economics of Education Review, 26, 113-125; Belfield, C., Nores, M., Barnett, W.S., & Schweinhart, L.J. (2006). The High/Scope Perry Preschool Program. Journal of Human Resources, 41(1), 162-190; Temple, J. A., & Reynolds, A. J. (2007). Benefits and costs of investments in preschool education: Evidence from the Child-Parent Centers and related programs. Economics of Education Review, 26(1), 126-144.

Perry Preschool Economic Effects

50%

60%

13%

62%

40%

7%

76%

82%

36%

76%

60%

29%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

Had savings Account at 40

Own Car at 40

Own Home at 27

Employeed at 40

Earned >$20K at 40

Earned >$20K at 27

Program No Program

Perry Preschool Crime Effects

34%

48%

55%

29%

27%

14%

33%

36%

7%

14%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Drug Crime by 40

Violent Crime by 40

Arrested >5X by 40

Arrested >5X by 27

Discipline Problems ages 6-12

Program No Program

Key Lessons

Economic returns can be extremely high Returns generalize across different kinds

of programs but vary with effectiveness

Soft skills matter as much as hard skills

Enhanced Pre-K in Mauritius: Results of a Randomized Trial

Intervention: Nutrition, Education, &Exercise Ages 3-5, teacher-child ratio 1:5.5 v. 1:30

Outcomes: Decreased behavior problems, conduct disorder, crime and mental illness at ages 17-23

Malnourished children gained more

ECEC Investments Around the Globe Argentina: Preschool increased achievement & self-control (e.g., attention and behavior) in 3rd grade

Colombia: Nutrition, preschool education & health care increased school age cognitive ability.

Germany: Preschool increased school success of migrants.

UK: High-quality preschool increased achievement.

Uruguay: Preschool increased educational attainment and decreased dropout.

Economic Returns Globally Estimated returns for middle- and low-income countries are 6:1 to 18:1

from increased earnings alone.

A 25% increase in preschool education would yield an estimated return of US $10.6 billion globally.

The Lancet, Volume 378 (9799), p. 1276, 8 October 2011

Why Universal Public ECEC?

All children gain from better ECEC

Disadvantaged gain more

Peer effects for disadvantaged substantial

Best coverage of disadvantaged

Higher cost, but a larger net benefit

Effects of Universal ECEC OECD test scores higher and more equal as access

approaches 100%

France: Ecole Maternelle increased income

Norway: universal child care increased earnings and employment

Arg. Uru. and UK: universal preschool raised long-term achievement

US states: universal Pre-K improved test scores and executive function for all children

Denmark, Quebec: universal child care null or negative effects on children--quality matters

Universal ECEC Returns Depend on Policy and Practice

Returns to public ECEC investments depend on intensity and quality

Quality depends on teachers, class size, and classroom composition (peers)

Quality depends on leadership and a continuous improvement cycle with reflection & planning

Proven designs, high standards, adequate funding, and evaluation all help

3.9

19.9

34.6

27.7

12.1

1.70.0 0.24.2

32.2

47.4

16.0

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1.00-1.99 2.00-2.99 3.00-3.99 4.00-4.99 5.00-5.99 6.00-7.00

ECERS-R Score (1=minimal, 3=poor 5= good 7=excellent)

Pe

rce

nta

ge

of

Cla

ssro

om

s

00 Total (N = 232) 08 Total (N = 407)

NJ Raised Quality in Public and Private

Conclusions

ECEC can be a strong public investment

Increased achievement

Job and GDP growth

Decreased economic and educational inequality and fewer social problems

Universal ECEC can yield a higher return and greater equality than targeted ECEC

Intensity and quality are the keys to high returns

Continuous improvement cycles can assure quality

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