Steel Long Products Market 85th IREPAS Meeting

Alex Gordienko

Export Director

CELSA Group

Steel Long Products Market85th IREPAS Meeting

October 18th , 2021

• Macroeconomics and steel use

• Construction sector overview

• Steel industry overview

• Long products consumption

• Rebars consumption

• International Market price situation

• Summary & Outlook

2

TABLE OF CONTENTS

3

The global economy is performing better than expected in 2021.

The outlook for the emerging economies have been downgraded because of the COVID impact.

By contrast, the forecast for advanced economies for 2022 has been revised up by 0,5%. These revisions reflect uneven pandemic developments.

GDP Growth Projections

The 0.5 % increase derives mainly from the American economy.

GDP Growth Projections








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Table of Contents

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EU Construction sector overview

The recovery of the European construction industry is proceeding faster than initially expected. It is expected that a large part of the losses due to the Corona pandemic can be recovered in 2021.

SOURCE: 91st EUROCONSTRUCT, June 2021

SOURCE: 91st EUROCONSTRUCT, June 2021





• Rebars market



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Table of Contents

Global Steel output is expected to increase by 2.7% in 2021.

World Steel Production

157

37

100120

41 14 40

1.001

111

99

153

6

1.880

139

39102 101

38 17 45

1.053

100 83141

6

1.864

149

48103 113

43 13 42

1.067

112 92 126

7

1.914

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

EU Other Europe C.I.S North America South Amercia Africa Middle East China India Japan Other Asia Oceania TOTAL

World Crude Steel Production by Regions (Millions of TN)

2019 2020 2021E

Steel demand will grow by 5.8% in 2021 to reach 1.874 Mt, after declining by 2.6% in 2020

In 2022 steel demand will see further growth of 2.7% to reach 1,924.6 Mt.

CELSA GROUPTM Strictly Private & Confidential

Global Steel Market Analysis

2019

1.766 Mt

2020

1.725 Mt

2021

1.874 Mt

2022

1.924 Mt

Progression of China’s Steel Exports and ImportsGlobal Steel Market Analysis








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Table of Contents

Source: CRU OCT’21

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Global Long Products Consumption (Mt)

It is estimated that Long products consumption in 2021 will increase 6,8 % vs 2020

577 571 584651

713 764826 839 813 804 824 864 898 914

976

0

200

400

600

800

1.000

1.200

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 E

Long Products Consumption

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Long Products Consumption, by Product (Mt)


Consumption of all products is estimated to increase by 6,8% in 2021 vs 2020 . WireRod 3,9%, Rebar 6,4%, Mbars 10% , Sections 9,7%

147 146 154 171 191 205 220 222 216 210 211 224 232 236 245

233 234 247 260289

322354 371 366 370 375 388 412 416 443143 142 144

175185

187200 193 178 170 182

194197 206

227

54 49 3945

4850

52 54 54 54 5658

58 5661

0

200

400

600

800

1.000

1.200

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 E

Long Products Consumption by Product

WR Rebar Bars Sections








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Table of Contents

Source: CRU

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Rebars Consumption, by Regions (Mt)

Rebar consumption is estimated to reach 443 Mtons in 2021, the highest numbers ever.Source: CRU OCT’21

8 9 9 10 11 12 12 13 12 13 13 12 1313 10 10 9 8 8 9 9 10 11 10 9 11

152 162183

209237 250 242 240 246 251

289 301 3081618

21

22

2526 26 24 26 26

2425

29

5860

63

69

7071 74 72 70 73

76 6981

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E

Rebar Consumption by Regions

North America Western Europe E & SE Asia CIS/Eastern Europe RoW


Rebar by Regions Apparent Consumption 2021 E (%)

3,0%

2,5% 1,6%

60,7%

3,2%

6,5%

18,4%

Rebar Consumption by Regions

North America Western Europe Japan China

Other E & SE Asia CIS/Eastern Europe RoW








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Table of Contents

Source: Platts

Reinforcing bars, wire rod and billet FOB price

19

Año 01/01/2012 01/01/2013 01/01/2014 01/01/2015 01/01/2016 01/01/2017 01/01/2018 01/01/2019 01/01/2020 01/01/2021 11/10/2021

Billet FOB Black Sea ($/tn) 600 525 507 395 249 398 515 405 408 580 610

Rebar FOB Turkey ($/tn) 668 600 580 505 325 433 570 450 449 640 695

Wire Rod Mesh FOB Turkey ($/tn) 681 613 585 520 360 450 605 478 458 735 790

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Reinforcing bars spread evolution

Source: CRU

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

150

250

350

450

550

650

750

850

Spread Scrap Rebar Turkey ($ / Tn)

Rebar FOB Turkey ($/tn) Scrap CFR Turkey ($/tn) Spread Scrap Rebar Turkey ($/tn)

42 42 42 52 59

87 9279

133

216

288

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

01-ene 01-feb 01-mar 01-abr 01-may 01-jun 01-jul 01-ago 01-sep 01-oct

Spanish Electricity price (EUR/Mwh)

Energy price evolution

Direct energy cost effect on EAF – EUR120-130 per mt.

Indirect effect on input costs – ferroalloys, lime etc








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Table of Contents

• 2021 - Uneven economic recovery after COVID. V shaped recovery invaccinated countries.

• Disruption of supply chains and shipping.

• Energy price increases.

• China construction industry update. USA infrastructure spending.

• Unprecedented economic situation.

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Summary & Outlook

Thank you for your attention !

Steel Long Products Market 85th IREPAS Meeting

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