SteelOrbis Fall 2013 Conference, & 69th Irepas Meeting · 24 Conclusions •Slowdown in export...
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TURKISH LONG STEEL MARKET SteelOrbis Fall 2013 Conference, & 69th Irepas Meeting Dr. Veysel Yayan Secretary General Turkish Steel Producers Association 23 September 2013 İstanbul
Transcript of SteelOrbis Fall 2013 Conference, & 69th Irepas Meeting · 24 Conclusions •Slowdown in export...
TURKISH LONG STEEL MARKET
SteelOrbis Fall 2013 Conference, & 69th IrepasMeeting
Dr. Veysel YayanSecretary General
Turkish Steel Producers Association
23 September 2013İstanbul
2
Development of Turkish Economy, Construction, Manufacturing and Steel Industries (%)
* Steel Industry Growth Jan-Jul 2013
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-H1
GDP 8,4 6,9 4,7 0,7 -4,7 9 8,8 2,2 3,7
Construction 21,5 19,4 5,7 -8,1 -16,3 17,1 11,5 0,6 6,8
Manufacturing 8,2 8,4 5,6 -0,1 -7 13,3 10 1,9 2,5
Steel Industry* 2,4 11,8 9,9 4,1 -5,6 15,2 17 5,2 -4,6
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-H1
GDP Construction Manufacturing Steel Industry*
3
Construction Industry & Long Steel Production Growth (%)
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-H1
Construction Long Steel Production
4
Construction Industry & Long Steel Consumption Growth (%)
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-H1
Construction Long Steel Consumption
5
Crude Steel Production of Turkey (mmt) & yoy Growth (%)
* estimate
14,3 15,016,5
18,3
20,5 21,0
23,4
25,826,8
25,3
29,1
34,135,9
24,122,8
35,5
0,1
4,6
9,911,1
11,9
2,4
11,89,9
4,1
-5,6
15,217,0
5,2
-5,4
-1,1
-10,0
-5,0
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
30,0
35,0
40,0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2012-8m 2013-8m 2013*
Crude Steel Production
yoy Change
6
Crude Steel Production Capacity (mmt) & Capacity Utilisation (%)
* estimate
19,8
25,1 27
,7 32,0 34
,1
38,3
42,7
47,1 49
,0
50,4
35,5
72,2
83,4 84,6
80,578,6
68,071,0
76,073,0
70
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
80,0
90,0
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*
Capacity Production CU %
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Turkey’s Billet Production Capacity (mmt)
22,1
24,5
27,329,1
32,6
35,4 36,0
38,038,9
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
30,0
35,0
40,0
45,0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*
* estimate
8
Turkey's Billet Production (mmt) & Capacity Utilisation (%)
17,9
20,3
22,022,7
20,521,8
24,4
27,126,5
8183
81 78
63 62
6871
68
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
30,0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*
Production CU %
* estimate
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Share of Billet in Total Crude Steel Production (%)
85,286,6
85,584,5
81,1
74,9
71,5
75,4
73,0
60,0
65,0
70,0
75,0
80,0
85,0
90,0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*
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Turkey’s Long Steel Production (mmt) & Share in Total Finished Steel Production (%)
15,8
19,2
21,8 22,1
20,719,7
22,9
25,2
14,9 15,1
26,0
80,8
82,4
83,7 83,0
82,4
74,8
71,6
73,6
74,9
72,6 72,9
64,0
66,0
68,0
70,0
72,0
74,0
76,0
78,0
80,0
82,0
84,0
86,0
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
30,0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2012-7m 2013- 7m 2013*
* estimate
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Turkey’s Long Steel Consumption (mmt) & Share in Total Finished Steel Consumption (%)
9,1
10,5
12,1
10,39,7
11,7
13,7
14,8
8,69,2
16,1
49,249,6
50,9
47,9
53,7
49,4
51,0
52,1
52,6 52,7 52,7
44,0
45,0
46,0
47,0
48,0
49,0
50,0
51,0
52,0
53,0
54,0
55,0
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
12,0
14,0
16,0
18,0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2012-7m 2013- 7m 2013*
* estimate
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Turkey’s Long Steel Consumption (mmt) & Share in Total Finished Steel Consumption (%)
* estimate
15,819,2
21,8 22,1 20,7 19,722,9
25,2
14,9 15,1
26,0
3,84,1
4,3 4,54,4 6,6
9,19,0
5,0 5,7
9,7
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
30,0
35,0
40,0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2012- 7m2013- 7m 2013*
Turkey's Finished Steel Production (Mt)
FlatLong
9,1 10,5 12,1 10,3 9,7 11,7 13,7 14,8
8,6 9,216,1
9,410,7
11,711,2
8,3
11,913,2
13,6
7,7 8,3
14,5
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
30,0
35,0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2012-7m
2013-7m
2013*
Turkey's Apparent Finished Steel Consumption (Mt)
Flat
LongTurkey is expected toconsume 30.6 Mtfinished steel in 2013, 52.3 % of which is expected to be longsteel products.
Long products areexpected to account for72.9 % of the total finished steelproduction in 2013, while share of flatproducts is expected tobe 27.1 %.
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Turkey’s Finished Long Steel Production and Consumption (mmt)
15,8
19,2
21,8 22,1
20,719,7
22,9
25,2
14,9 15,1
26,027,0
16,117,0
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
30,0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2012-7m 2013- 7m 2013* 2014*
Production Consumption
* estimate
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Turkey’s Surplus Finished Long Steel Production (mmt)
6,7
8,7
9,7
11,9
11,0
8,0
9,1
10,4
6,35,9
9,9 10,0
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
12,0
14,0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2012-7m 2013- 7m 2013* 2014*
* estimate
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Price Difference Between Turkey’s Average Scrap Import Price and Rebar Export Price ($/t)
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
240
250Ja
n11 Fe
b
Mar
Ap
r
May Jun
Jul
Au
g
Sep
Oct
No
v
Dec
Jan
.12
Feb
Mar
Ap
r
May Jun
Jul
Au
g
Sep
Oct
No
v
Dec
Jan
.13
Feb
Mar
Ap
r
May Jun
Jul
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Turkey’s Finished Long Steel Export (mmt) and Share in Total Steel Export (%)
7,7
9,6
10,9
12,9
11,8
9,2
10,5
11,7
7,16,7
58
6365 65
63
52
57 5860
57
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
12,0
14,0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2012-7m 2013- 7m
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Turkey’s Billet and Finished Long Steel Import (mmt)
3,4
2,42,0
2,4
1,3
1,8
0,8
1,2
1,3
1,3
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
Long
Billet
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Turkey’s Long Steel Export By Regions (mmt)
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
12,0
14,0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2012-7m 2013-7m
Middle East & Gulf Region N. Africa USA EU-27 Others
19
Turkey’s Long Steel Import By Regions (mmt)
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
1,2
1,4
1,6
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2012-7m 2013-7m
EU27 CIS Others
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Turkey’s Finished Long Steel Import (mmt) and Share in Total Steel Import (%)
0,9 0,9
1,2
1,1
0,8
1,2
1,31,3
0,80,8
9,1
7,6
8,57,8
7,4
10,8
12,6
11,0
12,1
9,6
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
12,0
14,0
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
1,2
1,4
1,6
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2012-7m 2013- 7m
21
Turkey’s Net Finished Long Steel Export (mmt)
6,8
8,7
9,7
11,9
11,0
8,0
9,1
10,4
6,35,9
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
12,0
14,0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2012-7m 2013- 7m
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Turkey’s Finished Long Steel Export (Jan-Jul 2013, mmt)
Reinforcing Bar; 4,9 ;
73%
Sections; 1,0 ; 14%
Wire Rod; 0,6 ; 9%
Others; 0,3 ; 4%
Iraq15%
UAE10%
Saudi Arabia7%
Israel6%
USA6%Yemen
6%Libya
5%Peru3%
Brazil2%
Ethiopia2%
Others38%
Products
Markets
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Conclusions
• Turkey’s steel consumption has been the driving force in Turkey’s steel production growth inthe recent years.
• Especially the growth of the construction industry has been at the core of the Turkey’s steelconsumption.
• Long steel accounts for around 53 % of Turkey’s total finished steel consumption.
• Although Turkey’s billet production dropped by 3.8 %, finished steel production increased by1.2%, with the support of 36 % growth in billet import.
• Despite increasing domestic demand, Turkish steel industry has some surplus productionwhich needs to find its way in export markets.
• However, recent investments by some Turkish steelmakers to be able to produce slab in theirbillet production facilities has taken some of the export pressure on billet producers.
• Despite that Turkish steel industry is expected to keep exporting around 10 mmt long steelannually.
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Conclusions
• Slowdown in export markets, access capacities in the world steel industry and squeezingmargins especially between scrap and billet have negatively affected the production of Turkishsteel industry.
• Demand conditions in the main export markets such as EU, Middle East & Gulf and NorthAfrica has not improved satisfactorily due to the political instability.
• Huge infrastructure investments, urban transformation projects and low interest rates havestarted to positively affect the local demand for steel in the second half of this year.
• Turkish steel industry is anxious about the increasing tendency in the global markets to restrictraw materials export, especially ferrous scrap might threaten free trade in finished steelproducts.
• Recent increase in AD and CVD trade cases in some countries against finished steel products(especially against rebar and wire rod) to provide protection from the internationalcompetition is threatening free market conditions.
• Turkish steel industry will continue to target shifting its production to higher value addedproducts in the long term.
