Statewide Land-Use Allocation Model for Florida
description
Transcript of Statewide Land-Use Allocation Model for Florida
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Statewide Land-Use Allocation
Model for Florida
Stephen Lawe, John Lobb & Kevin HathawayResource Systems Group
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Presentation Outline
1. Land Use Allocation Model (LUAM)
• Implementation & Overview
2. Data on Land Use Patterns
• Challenges of Estimation
3. Model Structure & Calibration
4. Results - Sensitivity to Accessibility
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LUAM Process – Turnpike Integrated Model Structure
Truck Trip TableTruck Trip Table
Land Use Allocation
Model (LUAM)
Land Use Allocation
Model (LUAM)
Auto Trip TableAuto Trip Table
Auto Toll TripsAuto Toll Trips Auto Toll-Free TripsAuto Toll-Free Trips Truck Toll TripsTruck Toll Trips Truck Toll-
Free TripsTruck Toll-Free Trips
Network Volumes and Travel Times
Network Volumes and Travel Times
Described in this presentation
As described in a presentation by Songer, et al. on Wednesday and Adler, et al. on Thursday
5-year lag
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LUAM Process – Model Fundamentals
• Written in C++ and integrated with transportation models:
• Currently integrated into Florida’s Turnpike Enterprise State Model
• Built to integrate into MPO models
• Allocates housing and employment growth at TAZ-level
• Growth total inputs at user-defined geography
• State, County, MPO, other.
• LUAM Model runs in 2-4 minutes
St Petersburg
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LUAM Process – Model Development Plan
• Goal: Incremental improvements while always having a model that supports analysis
• 4-step process
1. Estimate and calibrate model using aggregate town & county trends
2. Re-estimate statewide model with parcel-level data from selected counties
3. Complete statewide model estimation with parcel-level data for all counties in state
4. Continue to refine input data and policy control hooks
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Land Use Data – Overview of Process
Legal & Physical Constraints
Total Land Available
GenerateTravel Impedance
Matrix
TAZ Land Use Forecasts
5 YearDynamic Land Use Lag
Florida - Calibrated Parameters
Determine Remaining
Developable Land
Accessibility and Overall
Attractiveness
Forecasting Analysis
Procedures
Base Year Zonal Land Use
• Households• Employment
Future Growth Increment
Allocate new Increment of Land
Use
• Households• Employment
• Households• Employment
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Land Use Data – Development History (parcel level)
Cape Coral
Fort Myers
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Land Use Data – Lumpy by Year 1,132
849
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Vacant
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Land Use Data – Spatial Variability (parcel variability)
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Land Use Data – Urban Growth Boundaries (legal constraints)
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Model Structure – Parameters of Model
Variable Source Effect on Development
Accessibility Travel Model Non-Linear, generally positive
Proximity to Coast GIS Positive
Distance from Arterials & Interchanges GIS/Network Negative
Density of Current Use Parcel Positive
Mix of Land-Uses Parcel Homogeneity is positive
Urban Growth Boundary GIS layer Less development outside UGB
Undeveloped Area Parcel Positive
Res. & Non-Res. Development History Parcel (dependent variable)
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Model Structure – Two Stage Logit / Linear
1. What percent of the available land is consumed?
Logit Model Estimates:
Pij = Probability of TAZ i, land use j, being developed
ePij = Pr(Yij = 1 | Xij)
=
ἀ + β1x1 + β2x2 +…+ βkxk
ἀ + β1x1 + β2x2 +…+ βkxk 1 + e
Densityij = β1x1 + β2x2 +…+ βkxk + ε
2. How many houses & emp. will build on the consumed land?
Tobit Model Estimates:
Densityij = amount of land use j in TAZ i
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Model Structure – Calibration Results (Residential Growth 1980 - 2005)
Pearson’s Correlation
TAZ= .58
ZIP = .81
Observed Growth Modeled Growth
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Statewide Application – 2015 households
• Run model and look for outliers
• Run without controlling and compare to county control totals
• Correlation of .93 with 2015 medium BEBR growth totals
• Bureau of Economic and Business Research
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Model Sensitivity Test - Accessibility
• Approximate Population to Employment Ratio
• Cape Coral: 3 pop to 1 emp
• Fort Myers: 1 pop to 2 emp
• Doubling of bridge capacity during 1990s
• Large subsequent observed increase in development in Cape Coral
• Population increase by 75% between ’95 – ’05
• Twice the rate of growth in ’80s and ’90s
• Modeled removal of new bridge capacity
• Population increase by 55% between ’95 – ’05 (as compared to 75% with the bridges)
Legend
% Difference HH
-0.53 - -0.40
-0.39 - -0.30
-0.29 - -0.25
-0.24 - -0.20
-0.19 - -0.15
-0.14 - -0.10
-0.09 - -0.05
-0.04 - 0.00
0.01 - 0.11
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Summary and Conclusions
• FL TSM v1 completed in 2006, has been used for major planning applications (Doherty, Fennessy & Songer, Wednesday presentation – Session 17)
• Land-use model built on a high-quality, maintained statewide GIS database
• Simplified initial model structure supports focus on critical data quality and maintenance issues
• Work is continuing on estimating one set of land-use models for the State
• Statewide Land Use Model creates growth forecasts in a consistent manner which is important to the Florida’s Turnpike Enterprise