State of the Planet

7/26/2019 State of the Planet

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State of the PlanetState of the PlanetExecutive SummaryExecutive Summary

James G. HarrisJames G. Harris

Professor, EE Department and PE Pro!ramProfessor, EE Department and PE Pro!ramEE "#$ Graduate SeminarEE "#$ Graduate Seminar

%cto&er '', '(()%cto&er '', '(()


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*he +lue ar&le -pollo / photo!raph 01-S-2


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%utline%utline

+ac3!round+ac3!round

%vervie4 of State of the Planet%vervie4 of State of the Planet

Summary of each of the ei!ht papersSummary of each of the ei!ht papers

onclusionsonclusions

5eference 4e&sites5eference 4e&sites


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+ac3!round 6 Special Series+ac3!round 6 Special Series

Special report commissioned &y Science toSpecial report commissioned &y Science toassess state of planet no4, and to !ive anassess state of planet no4, and to !ive anestimate for '("(estimate for '("(

*4o articles per issue for four consecutive 4ee3s*4o articles per issue for four consecutive 4ee3s) 1ov. 6 " Dec. '(($ ) 1ov. 6 " Dec. '(($ 7ollo4ed in ' Dec. '(($ 4ith special issue on the7ollo4ed in ' Dec. '(($ 4ith special issue on the

pu&lishin! in Science of *ra!edy of thepu&lishin! in Science of *ra!edy of theommons &y Garret Hardin $" years a!oommons &y Garret Hardin $" years a!o

*his presentation is a &rief summary of the ei!ht*his presentation is a &rief summary of the ei!htarticlesarticles


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+ac3!round 6 *he Ei!ht Papers+ac3!round 6 *he Ei!ht Papers

Human Population8 *he 1ext Half enturyHuman Population8 *he 1ext Half entury

&y Joel E. ohen&y Joel E. ohen

Prospects for +iodiversity &y artinProspects for +iodiversity &y artinJen3insJen3ins

*ropical Soils and 7ood Security &y*ropical Soils and 7ood Security &y

ichael Stoc3in!ichael Stoc3in! *he 7uture for 7isheries &y Daniel Pauly*he 7uture for 7isheries &y Daniel Pauly etet

alal


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+ac3!round 6 *he Ei!ht Papers+ac3!round 6 *he Ei!ht Papers

Glo&al 7resh4ater 5esources8 Soft9PathGlo&al 7resh4ater 5esources8 Soft9PathSolutions for the 'Solutions for the 'ststentury &y Peterentury &y PeterGleic3Gleic3

Ener!y 5esources and Glo&alEner!y 5esources and Glo&alDevelopment &y 5aymond J. ho4Development &y 5aymond J. ho4 et alet al

Glo&al -ir :uality and Pollution Ha;imeGlo&al -ir :uality and Pollution Ha;ime

-3imoto-3imoto odern Glo&al limate han!e &yodern Glo&al limate han!e &y

*homas 5.


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%vervie4 of S%*P%vervie4 of S%*P

Ei!ht areas represent the state of the planetEi!ht areas represent the state of the planet 7ive common resources87ive common resources8

6 -ir-ir

6 7resh =ater7resh =ater6 7isheries7isheries6 7ood and Soil7ood and Soil6 Ener!yEner!y

*hree 3ey trends8*hree 3ey trends86 Human populationHuman population6 +iodiversity+iodiversity6 limatelimate


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%vervie4 of S%*P%vervie4 of S%*P

Personal o&servationsPersonal o&servations

6 Helps esta&lish a definin! set of varia&les for aHelps esta&lish a definin! set of varia&les for a

very complex system usin! scientificvery complex system usin! scientific

perspectiveperspective

6 En!ineerin! via computers, o&servationEn!ineerin! via computers, o&servation

systems 0space and senor electronics2, andsystems 0space and senor electronics2, and

communications ma3e S%*P possi&lecommunications ma3e S%*P possi&le6 Span of consideration '(((9'("( covers theSpan of consideration '(((9'("( covers the

expected span of your careersexpected span of your careers


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Human Population8 *he 1ext HalfHuman Population8 *he 1ext Half

enturyentury

Earth>s population !re4 from #(( in /(( to #.$Earth>s population !re4 from #(( in /(( to #.$+ in '(($+ in '(($6 %rder of ma!nitude !ro4th in $(( years%rder of ma!nitude !ro4th in $(( years

?#"9/( !lo&al population !ro4th rate reached its?#"9/( !lo&al population !ro4th rate reached itsall9time hi!h of '.@ per yearall9time hi!h of '.@ per year6 .'@ in '(('.'@ in '(('

Demo!raphics predictions for '("( &ased uponDemo!raphics predictions for '("( &ased upon

t4o A1 sources8t4o A1 sources86 A1 Population Division>s ur&aniBation forecastsA1 Population Division>s ur&aniBation forecasts

6 =orld Population Prospects8 *he '((' 5evision=orld Population Prospects8 *he '((' 5evision


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enturyentury

A1 alternative pro;ections include8 lo4,A1 alternative pro;ections include8 lo4,

median, hi!h, and constant9fertility variantsmedian, hi!h, and constant9fertility variants

-nalysis &ased upon median variant-nalysis &ased upon median variant6 Gro4th from #.$+ to C.?+ in '("(Gro4th from #.$+ to C.?+ in '("(

6 omparison 4ith historical !ro4th rate8omparison 4ith historical !ro4th rate8

+e!innin! to C(( for + !ro4th in population+e!innin! to C(( for + !ro4th in population

$9) years from no4 + !ro4th$9) years from no4 + !ro4th


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enturyentury


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enturyentury

Demo!raphic uncertaintiesDemo!raphic uncertainties6 i!ration and 7amiliesi!ration and 7amilies

i!rationi!ration

6 7rom less to more developed countries7rom less to more developed countries6 '.# no4 declinin! to '.( in '('"9$( and remainin!'.# no4 declinin! to '.( in '('"9$( and remainin!

constantconstant

7amilies7amilies

6 7allin! fertility7allin! fertility6 ncreasin! lon!evityncreasin! lon!evity

6 han!in! mores of marria!e, coha&itation, and divorcehan!in! mores of marria!e, coha&itation, and divorce


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Prospects for +iodiversityProspects for +iodiversity

onsideration for &iodiversity8onsideration for &iodiversity86 *ropical forest*ropical forest6 *emperate forest*emperate forest6

arinearine6 7resh4ater7resh4ater

-ssumptions8-ssumptions86 A1 median population estimates for '("(8 #+ to ?+ &yA1 median population estimates for '("(8 #+ to ?+ &y

'("('("(

6 nter!overnmental Panel on limate han!e scenario8nter!overnmental Panel on limate han!e scenario8avera!e surface temperature increases 9'avera!e surface temperature increases 9'F andF and%%''increases ((9'(( ppmincreases ((9'(( ppm

6 Humanity conducts affairs as a 4hole as currentlyHumanity conducts affairs as a 4hole as currently


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onsidera&le num&er of species extinctions 4illonsidera&le num&er of species extinctions 4illta3e placeta3e place

Existin! lar!e &loc3s of tropical forests reducedExistin! lar!e &loc3s of tropical forests reduced

and fra!mentedand fra!mented *emperate, and some tropical, forests 4ill &e*emperate, and some tropical, forests 4ill &e

sta&le or increasin! in areasta&le or increasin! in area

arine ecosystems very different 4ith fe4 lar!earine ecosystems very different 4ith fe4 lar!e

marine predatorsmarine predators 7resh4ater &iodiversity 4ill &e severely reduced7resh4ater &iodiversity 4ill &e severely reduced

almost every4herealmost every4here


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Ho4 much does it matter to human existenceHo4 much does it matter to human existence

6 Gro4in! consensus humans directly or indirectlyGro4in! consensus humans directly or indirectly

responsi&le for extinction of all or most of lar!eresponsi&le for extinction of all or most of lar!e

terrestrial animal speciesterrestrial animal species6 ase of 1e4 ealand8 $C species of fli!htless avifaunaase of 1e4 ealand8 $C species of fli!htless avifauna

reduced to ? 4ith fe4 si!ns overall of terminal crisis toreduced to ? 4ith fe4 si!ns overall of terminal crisis to

humanshumans

6 Some point a threshold may &e crossed, &ut li3elySome point a threshold may &e crossed, &ut li3elyconseIuences from other factors such as a&rupt climateconseIuences from other factors such as a&rupt climate

shiftshift


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*ropical Soils and 7ood Security*ropical Soils and 7ood Security

A1 7ood and -!riculture %r!aniBation definition ofA1 7ood and -!riculture %r!aniBation definition of

food security8 4hen all people, at all times, havefood security8 4hen all people, at all times, have

physical and economic access to sufficient safephysical and economic access to sufficient safe

and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs andand nutritious food to meet their dietary needs andfood preferences for an active and healthy lifefood preferences for an active and healthy life

urrently,+ people 4ithout food security 0 in #2urrently,+ people 4ithout food security 0 in #2

#(@ of rural communities in tropics and su&tropics#(@ of rural communities in tropics and su&tropicsare persistently affected &y decline in householdare persistently affected &y decline in household

food productionfood production


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Soil Iuality defined &y Soil Science Society ofSoil Iuality defined &y Soil Science Society of

-merica8 the capacity of a soil to function 4ithin-merica8 the capacity of a soil to function 4ithin

land use and ecosystem &oundaries, to sustainland use and ecosystem &oundaries, to sustain

&iolo!ical productivity, maintain environmental&iolo!ical productivity, maintain environmentalIuality and promote plant, animal and humanIuality and promote plant, animal and human

healthhealth

ssue is ascri&in! decline in food productionssue is ascri&in! decline in food production

unam&i!uously to soil Iualityunam&i!uously to soil Iuality

6 Evidence of impact of soil Iuality on food productionEvidence of impact of soil Iuality on food production

!ro4in!!ro4in!


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7uture in mana!in! soil Iuality rests in7uture in mana!in! soil Iuality rests in4or3in! 4ith local communities4or3in! 4ith local communities

Evidence of adapta&ility, flexi&ility, andEvidence of adapta&ility, flexi&ility, andresponsiveness to techniIues that &rin!responsiveness to techniIues that &rin!private &enefits to smallholdersprivate &enefits to smallholders

Providin! simple provisions such asProvidin! simple provisions such as

adeIuately resourced extension servicesadeIuately resourced extension servicesand access to technolo!y to smallholdersand access to technolo!y to smallholderscan transform food productioncan transform food production


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*he 7uture for 7isheries*he 7uture for 7isheries

7isheries commonly perceived as local affairs7isheries commonly perceived as local affairsreIuirin! annual reassessments of species9reIuirin! annual reassessments of species9specific catch Iuotaspecific catch Iuota

Past decade esta&lished fisheries components ofPast decade esta&lished fisheries components of!lo&al enterprise on its 4ay to underminin! its!lo&al enterprise on its 4ay to underminin! itssupportin! ecosystemssupportin! ecosystems

7uture of fisheries7uture of fisheries

6 dentification and extrapolation of fundamental trendsdentification and extrapolation of fundamental trends6 Development and exploration 4ith and 4ithout computerDevelopment and exploration 4ith and 4ithout computer

simulation of possi&le futuressimulation of possi&le futures


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Glo&al fisheries landin! declined a&outGlo&al fisheries landin! declined a&out"((,((( metric ton per year from a pea3 of"((,((( metric ton per year from a pea3 ofC(9C" million tons in the late ?C(sC(9C" million tons in the late ?C(s

Geo!raphic and depth expansion ofGeo!raphic and depth expansion offisheries easier to extrapolatefisheries easier to extrapolate

%ver past "( years%ver past "( years

6 +ottom fishin! 4ent from '(( m to ((( m+ottom fishin! 4ent from '(( m to ((( m6 %ceanic tuna, &illfishes and relatives covered%ceanic tuna, &illfishes and relatives covered

the 4orld ocean &y the early ?C(sthe 4orld ocean &y the early ?C(s


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7our future scenarios proposed &y A1 Environmental7our future scenarios proposed &y A1 EnvironmentalPro!rammePro!ramme6 ar3et first8 mar3et considerations shape environmental policyar3et first8 mar3et considerations shape environmental policy

6 Security first8 conflicts and ineIuality lead to stron! socioeconomicSecurity first8 conflicts and ineIuality lead to stron! socioeconomic

&oundaries &et4een rich and pool&oundaries &et4een rich and pool6 Policy first8 !overnments &alance social eIuity and environmentalPolicy first8 !overnments &alance social eIuity and environmental

concernsconcerns

6 Sustaina&ility first8 value system chan!e favorin! environmentalSustaina&ility first8 value system chan!e favorin! environmentalsustaina&ilitysustaina&ility

'(9$(@ decrease and redistri&ution of current fishin! effort'(9$(@ decrease and redistri&ution of current fishin! effort Scenarios descri&e 4hat mi!ht happen, not 4hat 4illScenarios descri&e 4hat mi!ht happen, not 4hat 4ill

happenhappen6 *ra!edy of the ommons*ra!edy of the ommons


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Glo&al 7resh4ater 5esources8Glo&al 7resh4ater 5esources8

Soft9Path Solutions for the 'Soft9Path Solutions for the 'ststenturyentury

'('(ththcentury 4ater policies relied on massivecentury 4ater policies relied on massive

infrastructure 0dams, aIueducts, pipelines,infrastructure 0dams, aIueducts, pipelines,

centraliBed treatment plants2 to meet humancentraliBed treatment plants2 to meet human

demandsdemands6 Hard9Path solutionHard9Path solution

Serious unresolved 4ater pro&lems remainSerious unresolved 4ater pro&lems remain

6 + people lac3 safe drin3in! 4ater+ people lac3 safe drin3in! 4ater

6 '.)+ people lac3 access to adeIuate sanitation services'.)+ people lac3 access to adeIuate sanitation services


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Soft9Path approach8Soft9Path approach86 mprove the productivity of 4atermprove the productivity of 4ater

6 Delivers 4ater services and Iuality matched to users>Delivers 4ater services and Iuality matched to users>

needsneeds6 -pplies economic tools 4ith !oal to encoura!e efficient-pplies economic tools 4ith !oal to encoura!e efficientuse and eIuita&le distri&utionuse and eIuita&le distri&ution

6 ncludes local communities in decisions a&out 4aterncludes local communities in decisions a&out 4atermana!ement, allocation, and usemana!ement, allocation, and use

- fallacy of hard9path approach8 usin! less 4ater,- fallacy of hard9path approach8 usin! less 4ater,or failin! to use more 4ater, leads to loss of 4ell9or failin! to use more 4ater, leads to loss of 4ell9&ein!&ein!


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*ransition to soft9path already started*ransition to soft9path already started

Examples in AS8Examples in AS86 ast t4o decades amount of 4ater for toilets declined &yast t4o decades amount of 4ater for toilets declined &y

/"@/"@6 Proposed #/@ reduction 4ater use in alifornia ur&anProposed #/@ reduction 4ater use in alifornia ur&an

areas 4ithout reduction in serviceareas 4ithout reduction in service

6 -!riculture 6 farmers 4ant to !ro4 food and fi&er, not-!riculture 6 farmers 4ant to !ro4 food and fi&er, notuse 4ater8 use of drip irri!ationuse 4ater8 use of drip irri!ation

6 ndustry 6 semiconductor 4afer 4ater use 4ent from $(ndustry 6 semiconductor 4afer 4ater use 4ent from $(!alKin!alKin''in ?/( to #!alKinin ?/( to #!alKin''in '(($in '(($

onclusion8 can>t follo4 &oth paths, must chooseonclusion8 can>t follo4 &oth paths, must choose


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Ener!y 5esources and Glo&alEner!y 5esources and Glo&al

DevelopmentDevelopmentLL -vaila&ility of !lo&al ener!y resources and their use-vaila&ility of !lo&al ener!y resources and their use


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DevelopmentDevelopment


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urrent rate of consumption 0year '(((2urrent rate of consumption 0year '(((26 oal8 ."@ of reservesoal8 ."@ of reserves

6 1atural !as8 .#@ of reserves1atural !as8 .#@ of reserves

6 %il8 $@ of reserves%il8 $@ of reserves

6 1uclear8 '@ of reserves1uclear8 '@ of reserves

=orld not runnin! out of mineral fuels=orld not runnin! out of mineral fuels6 +ut still finite amounts+ut still finite amounts

Possession of reserves not essential for developmentPossession of reserves not essential for development

6 Japan8 very little ener!y resources, &ut hi!hly developedJapan8 very little ener!y resources, &ut hi!hly developed6 1i!eria8 lar!e oil reserves, &ut developin! status1i!eria8 lar!e oil reserves, &ut developin! status


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?"@ of annual ener!y consumption from fossil fuels?"@ of annual ener!y consumption from fossil fuels6 ))@ petroleum))@ petroleum

6 '#@ natural !as'#@ natural !as

6 '"@ coal'"@ coal

6 '."@ hydroelectric'."@ hydroelectric6 '.)@ nuclear'.)@ nuclear

6 (.'@ nonhydro rene4a&le ener!y(.'@ nonhydro rene4a&le ener!y

Hi!her G1P per capita !enerally implies hi!her efficiencyHi!her G1P per capita !enerally implies hi!her efficiencyof ener!y useof ener!y use

ost of rene4a&le ener!y not competitive at this timeost of rene4a&le ener!y not competitive at this time


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Gro4in! concern for fossil fuel emission ofGro4in! concern for fossil fuel emission of!reenhouse !asses!reenhouse !asses

Given !ro4in! environmental concerns, future useGiven !ro4in! environmental concerns, future use

of fossil resources 4ill chan!e8of fossil resources 4ill chan!e86 Processes 4ith increased efficiencyProcesses 4ith increased efficiency6 o4er localiBed air pollutiono4er localiBed air pollution6 ar&on capture and seIuestrationar&on capture and seIuestration

Electricity !eneration 4ill remain most importantElectricity !eneration 4ill remain most importantuseuse6 Generation flexi&ilityGeneration flexi&ility6 7lexi&ility in use7lexi&ility in use




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=ill 4orld ma3e transition to rene4a&les=ill 4orld ma3e transition to rene4a&les6 Simple ans4er 6 yes, 4hen fossil costs riseSimple ans4er 6 yes, 4hen fossil costs rise

6 1ext '"9"( years, little transition expected1ext '"9"( years, little transition expected

f fossil fuel depletion occurs more rapidlyf fossil fuel depletion occurs more rapidly6 5ene4a&les and alternatives may come online more5ene4a&les and alternatives may come online more

Iuic3lyIuic3ly

5eIuisite political 4ill and financial support5eIuisite political 4ill and financial support

reIuiredreIuired6 +enefits of fossil fuels do not ma3e up for ne!ative+enefits of fossil fuels do not ma3e up for ne!ative

effects on environmental health and human 4elfareeffects on environmental health and human 4elfare


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Global Air Quality and PollutionGlobal Air Quality and Pollution

?C# report usin! -PS satellite data esta&lished?C# report usin! -PS satellite data esta&lishedthat air pollution 4as an international issuethat air pollution 4as an international issue6 -ffected re!ional and !lo&al air Iuality-ffected re!ional and !lo&al air Iuality

6 ndustrial fossil fuel &urnin! from developed countriesndustrial fossil fuel &urnin! from developed countries6 +iomass &urnin! emissions from developin! countries+iomass &urnin! emissions from developin! countries

5ecent satellite data confirms8 G%E,5ecent satellite data confirms8 G%E,SH--HM, %P**, *%S, *E55-SH--HM, %P**, *%S, *E55-

-erosol distri&ution also !lo&al in extent-erosol distri&ution also !lo&al in extent Surface oBone increasin!Surface oBone increasin!


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Pollutant atmospheric lifetimes lon! enou!hPollutant atmospheric lifetimes lon! enou!h

to transport to other continentsto transport to other continents

6 %rder of 4ee3 for intercontinental transport%rder of 4ee3 for intercontinental transport

6 %Bone8 9' 4ee3s summer, 9' months 4inter%Bone8 9' 4ee3s summer, 9' months 4inter

6 % 9' months% 9' months

6-erosols impact climate8 9' 4ee3s-erosols impact climate8 9' 4ee3s


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e!acities of !reater than ( people aree!acities of !reater than ( people aresources of re!ional and !lo&al pollutionsources of re!ional and !lo&al pollution6 n '((, / me!acities accordin! to A1n '((, / me!acities accordin! to A1

6 Population !ro4th and ur&aniBation in futurePopulation !ro4th and ur&aniBation in future

ocal, re!ional, and !lo&al air9Iuality issuesocal, re!ional, and !lo&al air9Iuality issuesshould &e vie4ed in inte!rated mannershould &e vie4ed in inte!rated manner

6 5e!ional and !lo&al environmental impacts5e!ional and !lo&al environmental impacts6 limate chan!elimate chan!e


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odern Glo&al limate han!eodern Glo&al limate han!e

Planet Earth ha&ita&le &ecausePlanet Earth ha&ita&le &ecause6 relative location to sunrelative location to sun

6 1atural !reenhouse effect of its atmosphere1atural !reenhouse effect of its atmosphere

Ener!y flo4 from sunEner!y flo4 from sun6 -vera!e ener!y at top of atmosphere /" P=-vera!e ener!y at top of atmosphere /" P=

6 $@ reflected from clouds and surface$@ reflected from clouds and surface

6 '( P= a&sor&ed &y atmosphere, land, or ocean'( P= a&sor&ed &y atmosphere, land, or ocean

Altimately emitted &ac3 to space as infrared radiationAltimately emitted &ac3 to space as infrared radiation6 nfreIuent volcanic eruptions have pertur&ed flo4nfreIuent volcanic eruptions have pertur&ed flo4

6 nferred chan!es in total solar irradiance are small 0(.'nferred chan!es in total solar irradiance are small 0(.' oo in first half of '( in first half of '(ththcenturyN smaller later part2centuryN smaller later part2


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Human influences on climate dominateHuman influences on climate dominate

detecta&le influence for past "( yearsdetecta&le influence for past "( years

6 ain impact on chan!es in atmosphericain impact on chan!es in atmospheric

composition 0not actual heat !eneration2composition 0not actual heat !eneration2

6 Estimated @ chan!e in ener!y flo4 to dateEstimated @ chan!e in ener!y flo4 to date

dominates all other human influencesdominates all other human influences

P= O million ((( = po4er stations P= O million ((( = po4er stations

6-tmospheric composition chan!es due to-tmospheric composition chan!es due to

anthropo!enic emissions of !reenhouse !asesanthropo!enic emissions of !reenhouse !ases


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-&sence of climate miti!ation policies, ./-&sence of climate miti!ation policies, ./ooto ).?to ).?oo is ?(@ pro&a&ility interval for 4armin! from ??( is ?(@ pro&a&ility interval for 4armin! from ??(to '((to '((6 ore freIuent heat 4aves, drou!hts, extremeore freIuent heat 4aves, drou!hts, extreme

precipitation eventsprecipitation events6 5elated re!ional impacts8 4ild fires, ve!etation chan!es,5elated re!ional impacts8 4ild fires, ve!etation chan!es,

sea level risesea level rise

5ate of human9induced climate chan!e pro;ected5ate of human9induced climate chan!e pro;ected

to &e faster than natural processes, e.!., (,(((to &e faster than natural processes, e.!., (,(((year cycle ice a!esyear cycle ice a!es6 rreversi&le thresholds li3ely existrreversi&le thresholds li3ely exist

limate chan!e !uaranteed in futurelimate chan!e !uaranteed in future


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onclusionsonclusions

7ive common resources87ive common resources86 -ir8 pollution is !lo&al, not local, pro&lem-ir8 pollution is !lo&al, not local, pro&lem

6 7resh =ater8 efficient use of 4ater, not produce more 4ater7resh =ater8 efficient use of 4ater, not produce more 4ater

6 7isheries8 tra!edy of the commons pro&lem7isheries8 tra!edy of the commons pro&lem

6 7ood and Soil8 local solutions to efficiently produce food and fi&er7ood and Soil8 local solutions to efficiently produce food and fi&er6 Ener!y8 mar3et forces 4ill most li3ely cause chan!e from fossil fuelEner!y8 mar3et forces 4ill most li3ely cause chan!e from fossil fuel

dependencydependency

*hree 3ey trends8*hree 3ey trends86 Human population8 "(@ more people &y '("( 0#+ to ?+2Human population8 "(@ more people &y '("( 0#+ to ?+2

6 +iodiversity8 less diversity, &ut impact to human life on the planet+iodiversity8 less diversity, &ut impact to human life on the planetless than other factorsless than other factors

6 limate8 human impact on atmosphere !ro4in! in si!nificance 4ithlimate8 human impact on atmosphere !ro4in! in si!nificance 4ithun3no4n conseIuencesun3no4n conseIuences


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A5 for State of the PlanetA5 for State of the Planet

=e& site availa&le for all articles comprisin!=e& site availa&le for all articles comprisin!the State of the Planet, and the *ra!edythe State of the Planet, and the *ra!edyof the ommonsof the ommons

6 http8KK444.sciencema!.or!KsciextKsotpKhttp8KK444.sciencema!.or!KsciextKsotpK6 1ot complete access 0---S mem&ers21ot complete access 0---S mem&ers2

EE "#$ student Po4erPoint presentationsEE "#$ student Po4erPoint presentations

for the ei!ht articles are availa&le8for the ei!ht articles are availa&le86 http8KK444.calpoly.eduK;harrisKcourseshttp8KK444.calpoly.eduK;harrisKcoursesunderunder

EE "#$ =inter '(($EE "#$ =inter '(($
http://www.sciencemag.org/sciext/sotp/http://www.sciencemag.org/sciext/sotp/http://www.calpoly.edu/~jharris/courseshttp://www.calpoly.edu/~jharris/courseshttp://www.calpoly.edu/~jharris/courseshttp://www.sciencemag.org/sciext/sotp/


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Ase A1 Environmental Pro!ramme fourAse A1 Environmental Pro!ramme four

scenarios to investi!ate future of fisheriesscenarios to investi!ate future of fisheries

6 ar3et firstar3et first

6 Security firstSecurity first

6 Policy firstPolicy first

6 Sustaina&ility firstSustaina&ility first


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Gl & l 7 h t 5Gl & l 7 h t 5


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E 5 d Gl & lE 5 d Gl & l


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onseIuences of the !lo&al distri&ution andonseIuences of the !lo&al distri&ution anduse of ener!y resourcesuse of ener!y resources

Estimate of futureEstimate of future

State of the Planet

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