State of the Ecosystem Report:Georges Bank and Gulf of Maine

Sean Lucey, reporting on behalf of many

Northeast Fisheries Science Center

contributors

Northeast Fisheries Science Center

New England Fishery Management Council

17 April 2017

State of the Ecosystem reports, 2014-2016

• Shorter, targeted at fishery

management councils

• Similar docs in other regions

• Presented to NEFMC 2014-

2016

• Presented to MAFMC SSC

September 2016

• To both Councils April 2017

2

Current revision:

new outline

3

Big picture

Humans

Resource species

Protected species

Ecosystem base

Physics

Climate

Start with an ecosystem conceptual model

• Highlight

linkages

• Understand

how human

well-being is

affected by

changing

conditions

4

4/18/2017 5

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Summary: performance relative to objectives

3

Single

species

objectives:

• Only 40% of stocks

managed by the

NEFMC are meeting

objectives

• 15 are within target

ranges

• 9 exceed F rates

and/or below B

reference points

• 14 have unknown

status

How to read the plots

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5 A

12141618202224

B

1980 1990 2000 2010

Year

Re

cre

atio

nal p

art

icip

ation

, 1

06n

Most recent

10 years

Significant long term trend

Significant

short term

trend

Standard

deviation

Functional groups of species

Proportion managed by NEFMC

• All plots include totals for the region including species not

managed by the NEFMC

• Table below shows the average proportion of managed

stocks over the past 5 years

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Seafood production: Landings

• Seafood production

increasingly relies

on benthos and

benthivores

(scallops, lobsters)

• Other groups are

stable or decreasing

in landings

Seafood production: Landings

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• Seafood production

increasingly relies

on benthos and

benthivores

(scallops, lobsters)

• Other groups are

stable or decreasing

in landings

Seafood production: Mariculture

• Collected state by state

• Able to gather information

from the state of Maine

and Rhode Island

14

RI Oysters

ME Salmon

ME Trout

ME Blue Mussels

ME Oysters

Profits objective

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• Majority of Gulf of

Maine revenue is

from a single

species not

managed by the

council (Lobster)

• Majority of Georges

Bank revenue is

from a single

species (scallops)

Profits objective

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• Majority of Gulf of

Maine revenue is

from a single

species not

managed by the

council (Lobster)

• Majority of Georges

Bank revenue is

from a single

species (scallops)

Recreational opportunities objective

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• Recreational opportunitiesfrom fishing have also increased over the long term, according to numbers of anglers (A) and angler trips (B).

• However, there has been a significant decline over the past 10 years which may have started with the 2008 economic collapse, though recovery of recreational indices has not matched recovery in the wider economy.

Human community characteristics and risk

• New England

communities have

a higher reliance

on commercial

activities than the

Mid Atlantic

• Downeast Maine

has a stronger

reliance than other

parts of the region

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Commercial

engagement

Recreational

engagement

Commercial

relianceRecreational

reliance

Human community characteristics and risk

• New England region has relatively low risk from sea level rise

• Moderate to high reliance on species vulnerable to climate

• Generally low catch diversity especially in the Gulf of Maine

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Sea level

rise risk

Climate

vulnerability

Catch

diversity

Stability objective

• Stability is addressed with

indices of commercial fleet

and species revenue

diversity.

• These show long term

declines in the New

England, which may raise a

caution flag for stability

within the industry, but

requires further investigation

into mechanisms.

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Number of fleets

Fleet revenue diversity

Species revenue diversity

Biomass and trophic structure: survey trends

• Biomass trends for aggregated trophic levels are similar

across seasons

• Forage fish and benthos show long term increases

• Higher trophic levels have stable or increasing trends

• Largely driven by non-commercial species

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Biomass and trophic structure: survey trends

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FallSpring

Biomass and trophic structure: survey trends

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Spring Fall

Biomass and trophic structure: diversity

• Diversity has

increased in the

Gulf of Maine

• Remained stable or

decreased on

Georges Bank

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Fish productivity: condition, reproduction

• Additional indicators in this report suggest a note of caution

for the aggregate productivity of commercial fish species

in the region

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Fish weight per length dropped in 2000,

recovering recently?Aggregate numbers of small fish per large

fish biomass on the survey declining?

Protected species productivity

• While there are few time series for protected species, the North Atlantic right whale may be declining over the most recent few years after a slow but steady increase.

• Common terns have a longtermincrease while Artic terns have decreased

• Further, signals from the wider northwest Atlantic suggest a decrease in forage fish energy content.

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

250300350400450500

Year

Min

imum

n a

live

Base of the food web

• Smaller less energy

dense zooplankton

have been

increasing

• Primary production

has been average

27

Temperature and Climate conditions• Temperature is increasing in long term sea surface records as

well as surface and bottom measurements from surveys. The

seasonal temperature signal also shows sustained warming.

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Temperature and Climate conditions

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Georges Bank

Gulf of Maine

Bottom Temperature (A: April, B: October) 2016 Seasonal Surface Temperature

Temperature and Climate conditions

• Warming waters have impacts on the ecosystem that can be

complex due to differential impacts at the species level,

including observed shifts in species distribution and

changes in productivity as thermal habitats shift30

Temperature and Climate conditions

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Temperature and Climate conditions

• Regional climate indices show a northward movement of the Gulf Stream north wall which can be a local mechanism for increased temperature and species redistribution.

• Daily variation in sea surface temperature is increasing.

• Deep ocean circulation is weakening, leading to the northward Gulf Stream shift and enhancing sea level rise.

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

38.6

38.8

39.0

39.2

39.4

YearG

ulf S

trea

m N

ort

h W

all,

°la

titu

de

Gulf of Maine

Georges Bank

Website: http://www.nefsc.noaa.gov/ecosys/

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Questions

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 34