State of the Economy Measured Optimism. Noteworthy events since last Symposium Obamacare A...
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Transcript of State of the Economy Measured Optimism. Noteworthy events since last Symposium Obamacare A...
![Page 1: State of the Economy Measured Optimism. Noteworthy events since last Symposium Obamacare A Republican Senate ISIS Alibaba public offering Ebola Ukraine.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070409/56649e975503460f94b9acd3/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
State of the Economy
Measured Optimism
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Noteworthy events since last Symposium
• Obamacare• A Republican Senate• ISIS• Alibaba public offering• Ebola• Ukraine• Malaysia Airlines’ misfortune• Germany wins the World Cup, Brazil humiliated• A college football playoff
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Energy Prices Plunge
Note: Prices shown are through end of day January 11, 2015.
Comment: Oil prices have declined by 60% over the past 6 months and by 50% in just the past three months.
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Comment:It has taken 5 years but we have achieved neutral.
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Comment: Real GDP growth has been solid four of the last five quarters. The poor first quarter of 2014 is usually attributed to bad weather.
Comment: The weakness of the hosing market in 2014 is reflected in the contribution to GDP growth by Residential Fixed Investment.
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Comment: Prices have remained quite stable for the last three years.
Comment:Disposable Personal Income has shown little growth over the past two years.
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Comments: With the exception of Q1 in 2014, retail sales have been steady for the past three years.
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Comment: Unemployment rate has shown a steady decline for 2014.
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Comment:Nov 2014 and Nov 2013 numbers are very similar. 2014 was disappointing.
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Comment:The index remains positive though not strongly positive.
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Comment:Long-term unemployment showed significant improvement in 2014. Median Duration (weeks, not seasonally adjusted) declined from 17.5 to13.0.
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Comment:Wells Fargo forecasts modest GDP, retail sales and disposable income growth. Prices and interest rates projected to remain low.