SPMP-MED A Sustainable Pest Management technological

Platform for the MEDiterranean basin

Gilioli G.(1,4), Caroli A.(1), Memo M.(1),

Castelli F.(1), Ponti L. (2,4), Gutierrez A.P. (3,4)

1. University of Brescia, Italy gianni.gilioli@unibs.it

2. ENEA, UTAGRI-ECO, Roma, Italy

3. College of Natural Resources, University of California, Berkeley, California, USA

4. Center for the Analysis of Sustainable Agro-ecological Systems, Kensington, California, USA

2nd SDSN for Mediterranean Conference "Solutions for Agri-Food Sustainability in the

Mediterranean" Siena 5-6 March, 2015

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2

Food production: a factor 2 from now to 2050 Food accessibility:

a factor 1.15 from now to 2050

Environmental impact: we start from almost 0

1. Introduction

• Major challenges in agri-food from now to 2050

• Different meanings and different contexts – Different methods/techniques

• Comparative assessment

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• The case of pest

management – The failure of the

classical approach based on chemical control only

– The issue of the environmental pollution and health impact

Sustainability in agriculture

Main areas of innovation for sustainable pest management

• Management options – Managing agro-ecosystem structure and dynamics

• Acting on ecosystem resistance and resilience • E.g.: habitat and community diversity

– New pesticides • Minimizing the impact of the environment and human health

• Decision support systems and decision making (rational

pest management schemes how, when and where) – Knowledge – Technologies – Processes of implementation

• Implication for many SDGs

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The proposed solution (Unibs, ENEA, UC-Berkeley, CASAS)

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Knowledge

Technology

Process

SPMP-MED A Sustainable Pest Management

technological Platform for the MEDiterranean basin

• Damage caused by pest is related to a set of processes and conditions that are knowable in advance

• Population dynamics of abundance or prevalence are the key elements of knowledge driving force

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Environmental Management

Pesticide Management

Population Abundance/ prevalence

Impact on cultivated plants

Impact on the environment

2. The knowledge

• Pest is a player in a trophic network

• Each level supplies resource to the next

• The dynamics of system abundance can be described using the same model in all trophic levels

Sun

Plant

Growth

Respiration

Wastage

Reproduction

Minerals,

CO2, H2O Herbivore

Gr.

Resp.

Egestion

Repr.

Carnivore

Gr.

Resp.

Egestion

Repr.

Sun

Plant

Growth

Respiration

Egestion

Reproduction

Herbivory Minerals,

CO2, H2O

Temperature

Respiration

Photosynthate

• The processes are based on the supply/demand ratio for resources

• Inflow/outflow processes have similar shapes described by the same functions

• The functions depend on environmental forcing variables

1( )t )(2 t i t( ) k t( )

N1(t) x0(t) y(t) N2(t) Ni(t) Nk(t)

Birth

Death

…

2 ( )r t1( )ir t 1( )kr t1( )r t

k = 30

k = 10

k = 5

k = 1

Developmental time

Frequency

of maturation

times

• Temporal population dynamics is described by Physiologically-Based Demographic Models

2

2

02

2

21

11exp

2exp

2

1y

y

yy

yxx d

AN

NN

KrN

t

ttt

• Add the spatial dimension

+

x,y

Individual

Population

Area

Region

Biology

Geographic distribution

• The consideration of the spatial scale (GIS integration occurs at the population level)

• Background – Common structure of knowledge for rational and

sustainable pest management schemes

– The importance of tools to select, organize and generate knowledge to establish a scientifically-based procedure for the PM, in order

– To make the procedure of decision making in PM increasingly standardized by means of decision support tools

– The development of a platform

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3. The technology

Meteo stations

Input data

Model

GIS analysis

Maps

N (t) = N (0) + f (t) - g (t)

Plant and pests

High resolution simulation

Bio-ecology database

• Components of a sustainable pest management technological platform

• An application: ecosystem and bio-economic assessments of olive production under climate change

Ecosystem and bio-economic assessments of olive

production under climate change

Climate level

Ecosystem and bio-economic assessments of olive

production under climate change

Global (coarse topography)

Climate level

Dell’Aquila et al. 2012

Ecosystem and bio-economic assessments of olive

production under climate change

Global (coarse topography)

Regional (greater detail)

Climate level

Dell’Aquila et al. 2012

Ecosystem and bio-economic assessments of olive

production under climate change

Plant level

Climate level

Ponti et al. 2014

Ecosystem and bio-economic assessments of olive

production under climate change

Plant level

Climate level

Ponti et al. 2014

Ecosystem and bio-economic assessments of olive

production under climate change

Plant level

Pest level

Climate level

Ponti et al. 2014

Ecosystem and bio-economic assessments of olive

production under climate change

Plant level

Pest level

Climate level

Ponti et al. 2014

Ecosystem and bio-economic assessments of olive

production under climate change

Plant level

Pest level

Climate level

Economic level

Ponti et al. 2014

Ecosystem and bio-economic assessments of olive

production under climate change

Plant level

Pest level

Climate level

Economic level Change in profit (€ ha-1)

-256 0 431

Ponti et al. 2014

• Common presumptions in many traditional (top-down) management schemes – Exists a linear chain causes-effects

– Consider necessary and sufficient intervention on a single level (often relying on a single technology)

– Complexity of interaction between social and ecological sub-systems and between these and management are often disregarded

PEST ABUNDANCE

SOCIO- ECONOMICS

YIELD PEST

CONTROL

4. The process

• Management: complexity and non linearity – Neither simple approaches nor silver bullet technologies – Rational management schemes are needed

Decision making

Env. data Experts in modelling

Extension service

Experts in IPM

Data gathering

Information to the stakeholders

Actions (at farm level)

Bio. data

Model output

• A classical scheme of a top-down approach in Integrated Pest Management

DATA GATHERING, ANALYSIS AND MODELLING

AGRO-ECOSYSTEM

PLANT HOSTS

- Phenology

- Status

ENVIRONMENT

- Ecosystem

properties

- Land use

- Weather

PESTS

- Population

dynamics

- Status

MONITORING

DATA

PROCESSING

- Database

- GIS

SYSTEM

ANALYSIS AND

MODELLING

OPERATIONS

DECISION

MAKING

ACTORSS

Individual end-users

and organizations

Research team

and facilitators

Institutions and

NGOs

- Agronomic

- Pests control

- Habitat

management

• The adaptive management approach and the technological innovation systems

5. CONCLUDING REMARKS

• Since the 1970 the approach has been successfully implemented – Different contexts: crop pests (open field and protected

crops), invasive alien species, arthropod-transmitted diseases (humans and animals)

– Many systems: cotton, cassava, coffee, olive, vineyard, etc. – Many regions: USA, South America, Sub-Saharan Africa,

Mediterranean area

• Technology use has to be considered as part of

innovation system implementation – Focus on the technology – Link innovation and application – Considering the institutional, organizational and cultural

dimensions 27

• Implications for the good governance – Flexibility of the technology (different scales) – Assessment: exploration of scenarios for sustainable pest

management scheme – Analysis of agricultural resilience and adaptability (e.g., climate

change) – Bio-economic analysis (risk and opportunity) – Decision support for different stakeholder communities and

interests

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• What is the remaining work to do – Improving the architecture of the system and database – Improving generality and developing a user interface

• What we look for

– Opportunities for cooperation and involvement in projects

– Resources for developing new solutions for the Mediterranean area

– Contribute to the design the sustainable development agenda for the Mediterranean region in the area of pest management

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Thank you!

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