SPICOSA Science and Policy Integration for COastal System Assesment

Science and Policy Integration for COastal Systems Assessment

SPICOSA

Science and Policy Integration

for COastal System Assesment

<Lecturer’s name here>


SPICOSA – using the Systems Approach in the Coastal Zone


• Coastal zones and the system approach• An overview of SPICOSA• Working with stakeholders• Identifying problems and solutions• Causal chains, the SPICOSA loop• Models, conceptual and functional• Selecting and using scenarios• Reporting findings

Course structure


The

SPICOSA

loopImpact

How response influences HAs

System State

The state at a given time

Response

How the state is changing

Policy Change

Society’s reaction to the impact

Forcing

What an HA does to the system

Human Activity

What humans do


Example:

<Insert site name and issue>

INSERT PICTURE


Human Activity <insert example

of HA>

<Insert example> is an Human Activity (HA). The term HA refers to human intervention in the function and structure of natural systems.

INSERT PICTURE


Forcing <insert example>

Physical pressure is a force per unit area. `Nutrient loading' implies an increase in nutrients over what was a `normal' level.

INSERT PICTURE


System state <insert example>

where `State' or `Status' represent the situation at a specific time.

INSERT PICTURE


Response <insert example>

A forced rate of change in the ecosystem. Eutrophication would be seen as part of this.

INSERT PICTURE


Impact <insert example>

SPICOSA takes `Impact' as the end-result in a cause-&-effect chain, with direct consequences for ecosystem users, such as those involving harm to a fishery from deep-water anoxia.

INSERT PICTURE


Policy change <insert example>

SPICOSA does not pre-suppose what type of Policy decision should be made. It provides scenarios to show policy makers what will occur, given certain management choices.

INSERT PICTURE


The

SPICOSA

loopImpact

<Insert example here>

System State


Response


Policy Change


Forcing


Human Activity



Course structure

• Coastal zones and the system approach

• An overview of SPICOSA

• Working with stakeholders

• Identifying problems and solutions

• Causal chains, the SPICOSA loop

• Models, conceptual and functional

• Selecting and using scenarios

• Reporting findings


Models

• A tool to represent the real world in a way that can be used to understand how the system works and make forecasts.

• Can be used to give an idea of the effect of different management options.

• Models may be conceptual, mathematical or numerical.


Types of models

• Conceptual Model- a pictorial or verbal description of selected features of a system, usually made inductively and capable of qualitative predictions by deduction

• Mathematical Model- a formal mathematical representation of selected features of a system

• Numerical Model- a tool based on a mathematical model; a transformation machine that takes data from an input and converts it to a prognostic or diagnostic output; often implemented as, or using, a computer program.


Data requirements• What metric will you

use for each variable?

• Clear link with your issue of interest.

• Time series

• Common collection method throughout

• Apples with apples

• Same time steps

• Modelled data

Year

P fertilizer application

[MT]

N fertiliser application

[MT]1992 2827187 7983891993 2710551 7286091994 2928473 7467211995 2896038 7246711996 2964283 7306621997 2907004 7105561998 2916792 6879741999 2972749 6584342000 2743716 5769832001 2763493 555800

FAO North Sea fertilizer use data http://faostat.fao.org


Nitrate fertiliser use

Nitrate concentration

Verification

Calibration

X 2

X 1.6

SensitivitySewage discharge X 1.1

X 2

X 7

Is the response logical?Make the model realisticDo input parameters balance correctly?

?


Build ESE

component modelsA set of simple ESE models Associated with fishereies


Linking variables

A variable which can be linked to components of components to allow them to interact


Modelling – ESE componentsA simple example building a linked ESE model


Conceptual models

Rain and riverine inputsRain and riverine inputs

Water level

Pollution level

IndustryIndustry

WeirWeir

EvaporationEvaporation

TourismTourism

HydroelectricityHydroelectricityIrrigationIrrigation

€

Water treatmentWater treatment


Water levels in the Bay

o Influence:

Rainfall

Evaporation - 0.003 m-3/day.

Water loss from the weirs in the barrage which takes 100000m3 water/day when the bay level is greater than 500 000 000 m3.


Pollution inputs

o Industry – 200 businesses in the area abstract water from the bay as coolant; these return with heavy metals at a rate of 0.0001 Kg/day.

o Pollution amount is reduced by outflow from the weir into the Bristol Channel at concentration level.

oAmount not reduced by evaporation.


Economics

o The port authority is paid £0.15 per factory/day abstracting coolant from the bay.

o Tourists visit the Bay and spend an average of £20 a day.

o Tourists will only come if the concentration of heavy metals is below 3 x 10-7 kgm-3 where signs will be posted on the beaches warning of pollution.

o Money is available to develop a treatment plant to remove heavy metals at a cost of £0.01 per m3 of water.


Model created for

<case study name>

Rain and riverine inputs

Rain and riverine inputs

Water level

Pollution level

IndustryIndustry

WeirWeir

EvaporationEvaporation

TourismTourism

HydroelectricityHydroelectricity

IrrigationIrrigation

€

Water treatmentWater treatment

INSERT MODEL DIAGRAM

INSERT MODEL DIAGRAM


Exercise 3Conceptual

model


Tomorrow:Scenarios and

reporting to stakeholders

SPICOSA Science and Policy Integration for COastal System Assesment

Documents

Transcript of SPICOSA Science and Policy Integration for COastal System Assesment