Spectrum for mobile A Swedish perspective for 2020 and …¶r-4G-och-5G.pdf · Outline for this...

Post- och telestyrelsen

Spectrum for mobile

A Swedish perspective

for 2020 and beyond


Jan Boström

Expert Adviser, The Swedish Post and Telecom Authority

Section for Spectrum Analysis


Jan Boström

Expert Adviser

Section for Spectrum Analysis

• Technical studies and internal support

• Strategic planning of future spectrum use


Disclaimer: This is a research seminar

I will discuss things that go beyond the official PTS position to illustrate the kind of assessments and trade-offs we will have to do as a regulator

Analysis and statements should be seen a my personal views

First personal statement !

There is no spectrum shortage for mobile !!!

First personal statement !

There is no spectrum shortage for mobile !!! But there might be sound reasons for allocating more !

Outline for this seminar

• Available 4G spectrum in Sweden

• New 4G spectrum in the pipeline

• Is this enough ?

• Spectrum for 5G ?

Available 4G spectrum in Sweden, low bands

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

800

900 60

60 MHz

70 MHz

450 10 MHz

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

800

900 60

60 MHz

70 MHz

1800 140 MHz

10 MHz

450 10 MHz

Available 4G spectrum in Sweden, high bands

The expanded 1800 MHz exception

Since January 2015, the top 2*4,9 MHz in the 1800 MHz band is licence exempt in Sweden

• 23 GSM channels( expanded from 9 channels)

• LTE with a maximum BW of 3 MHz

• 3G/UMTS

Limited to: indoor use and 200 mW (23dBm) e.i.r.p.

Commission implementing decision (2011/251/EU)

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

800

900 60

60 MHz

70 MHz

1800 140 MHz

10 MHz

”3G” 140 MHz

450 10 MHz


2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

800

900 60

60 MHz

70 MHz

1800 140 MHz

10 MHz

”3G” 120 MHz

450 10 MHz


2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

800

900 60

60 MHz

70 MHz

1800 140 MHz

10 MHz

”3G” 120 MHz

2,6 190 MHz

450 10 MHz


2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

800

900 60

60 MHz

70 MHz

1800 140 MHz

10 MHz

”3G” 120 MHz

2,6 190 MHz

3,4-3,8 368 MHz

450 10 MHz


Statistics from Global mobile Suppliers Association (GSA)

Source:

GSA Chart: Spectrum

used currently in 360

commercially launched

LTE networks January 7, 2015

Source:

GSA REPORT:

Status of the

LTE Ecosystem Feb 16, 2015

Band 42 = 3,4-3,6 GHz

Band 43 = 3,6-3,8 GHz

Statistics from Global mobile Suppliers Association (GSA)

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

800

900 60

60 MHz

70 MHz

1800 140 MHz

10 MHz

”3G” 120 MHz

2,6 190 MHz

3,4-3,8 368 MHz

450 10 MHz

Available 4G spectrum in Sweden

800

900 60

60 MHz

70 MHz

1800 140 MHz

10 MHz

”3G” 120 MHz

2,6 190 MHz

3,4-3,8 368 MHz

Mobile operators = 590 MHz

All users = 10 MHz

450 10 MHz


800

900 60

60 MHz

70 MHz

1800 140 MHz

10 MHz

”3G” 120 MHz

2,6 190 MHz

3,4-3,8 368 MHz


All users = 10 MHz


All users = 10 MHz

450 10 MHz


800

900 60

60 MHz

70 MHz

1800 140 MHz

10 MHz

”3G” 120 MHz

2,6 190 MHz

3,4-3,8 368 MHz

450 10 MHz

2,4 83,5 MHz

5 455 MHz 538 MHz


All users = 10 MHz


All users = 10 MHz


5G available since 2012

800

900 60

60 MHz

70 MHz

1800 140 MHz

10 MHz

”3G” 120 MHz

2,6 190 MHz

3,4-3,8 368 MHz

450 10 MHz

2,4 83,5 MHz

5 455 MHz

All users

= 538 MHz


All users = 10 MHz


All users = 10 MHz


2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

800

900

1800

”3G”

2,6

3,4-3,8

450

31 may 2017

Changes in current licenses until 2020

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

800

900

1800

”3G”

2,6

3,4-3,8

450

1800

1800

New auktion

Licence exempt


2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

800

900

1800

”3G”

2,6

3,4-3,8

450

31 dec 2017


2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

3,7

2021 2022 2023

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

3,5 Regional

3,5 Regional

3,5 National

3,5 National


2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

800

900

1800

”3G”

2,6

3,4-3,8

450


800

900 60

60 MHz

70 MHz

1800 140 MHz

10 MHz

”3G” 120 MHz

2,6 190 MHz

3,4-3,8 368 MHz

450 10 MHz

2,4 83,5 MHz

5 455 MHz


All users = 10 MHz


All users = 10 MHz

All users

= 538 MHz

Changes in current licenses up until 2020

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

800

900

1800

”3G”

2,6

3,4-3,8

450

Spectrum release plan until 2020

700 MHz band

Government Decision of 27 February 2014

• 700 MHz band to be released for “services other than broadcasting” from April 1, 2017

• Terrestrial TV broadcast to use Band III (174–230 MHz) and remaining part of Band IV/V (470–694 MHz) after 1 April 2017

• The European harmonised band plan (ECC/CEPT) allows for 2*30 MHz

FDD and up to 20 MHz SDL/DL.

700 MHz band

700 MHz band

• The working assumption is to allocate 80 MHz (2*30+20) as block licenses

• Goal to make the 700 MHz band available to other services from April 1, 2017

• A number of reports relating to the 700 MHz band has ben published by PTS http://www.pts.se/sv/Bransch/Radio/Blocktillstand/700-MHz-bandet-/

•

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

800

900

1800

”3G”

2,6

3,4-3,8

450 700


1452-1492 MHz band (1.5 GHz)

COMMISSION IMPLEMENTING DECISION (EU) 2015/750, of 8 May 2015

• 40 MHz

• DL only

• No later than six months after the date of notification of this Decision, Member States shall designate and make available, on a non-exclusive basis…

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

800

900

1800

”3G”

2,6

3,4-3,8

450 700

1,5


2300-2400 MHz band

COMMISSION IMPLEMENTING DECISION (EU), expected this year

• 100 MHz

• TDD

2300-2400 MHz band

Source:

GSA REPORT:

Status of the

LTE Ecosystem Feb 16, 2015

2300-2400 MHz band

2300-2400 MHz band

Top 10 MHz power restricted

to protect WLAN above 2.4 GHz

License exempt ?

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

800

900

1800

”3G”

2,6

3,4-3,8

450 700

1,5

2,3


2020

800

900

1800

”3G”

2,6

3,4-3,8

450 700

1,5

2,3

Planned 4G spectrum in Sweden 2020


All users = 20 MHz

2020

800

900

1800

”3G”

2,6

3,4-3,8

450 700

1,5

2,3

If you think this outcome is good !

-> Respond to our consultations

and tell us why.



All users = 20 MHz

2020

800

900

1800

”3G”

2,6

3,4-3,8

450 700

1,5

2,3

If you think this outcome is good !


and tell us why.



All users = 20 MHz If you think this outcome is bad !


and tell us why.

What about WRC 15 ?

The World Radiocommunication Conference 2015 (WRC-15) will be held in Geneva, Switzerland, from 2 to 27 November 2015.

• An international UN Conference where nations meet to discuss radio related matters (rights and obligations)

• It is the job of WRC to review, and, if necessary, revise the Radio Regulations (RR)

• RR is an international treaty governing the use of the radio-frequency spectrum and the geostationary-satellite and non-geostationary-satellite orbits

Possible new bands from WRC15

• 1.5 GHz band, possible expansion from 40 to 90 MHz

• 2.7-2.9 GHz sharing with radar, 100-200 MHz

• 3.8-4.2 GHz sharing with satellite, < 400 MHz

What about WRC 15 ?

But WRC is international negotiations

Almost everything can happen

We could be presently surprised by the outcome

2020

800

900

1800

”3G”

2,6

3,4-3,8

450 700

1,5

2,3



All users = 20 MHz

2,4 83,5 MHz

5 455 MHz 538 MHz

5

Up to

320 MHz ?

2020

800

900

1800

”3G”

2,6

3,4-3,8

450 700

1,5

2,3

2,4

5

700 MHz ?



All users = 20 MHz

Will this be enough ?


• Will almost 1.2 GHz of licensed spectrum be sufficient ?



• Taking into account that licensed exempt will add an additional 700 MHz



• Taking into account that licensed exempt will add an additional 700 MHz

• Will 1.9 GHz of sub 6 GHz spectrum be sufficient ?


First take: starting with the wrong question

Could we cope with the forecasted growth in mobile use ?

Forecasts

Cisco VNI Mobile Forecast, 2014 – 2019, Feb 3 2015

• In Sweden, mobile data traffic will grow 4-fold from 2014 to 2019, a compound annual growth rate of 33%.

Ericsson Mobility report, Nov 2014

• In Western Europe, mobile data traffic is expected to multiply 8-fold between 2014 and 2020 (≈ 40 % CAGR).

Forecasts

Cisco VNI Mobile Forecast, 2014 – 2019, Feb 3 2015

• In Sweden, mobile data traffic will grow 4-fold from 2014 to 2019, a compound annual growth rate of 33%.

(2015 -> 2020 ≈ 4 times)

Ericsson Mobility report, Nov 2014

• In Western Europe, mobile data traffic is expected to multiply 8-fold between 2014 and 2020 (≈ 40 % CAGR).

(2015 -> 2020 ≈ 5.4 times)

The starting point

• A high estimate is that 380 MHz is used for mobile broadband today

• Limited use of operator indoor networks

• Limited use of small cells

• 2x2 MIMO

2020

800

900

1800

”3G”

2,6

3,4-3,8

450 700

1,5

2,3 Mobiloperatörerna = 1168 MHz

Alla användare = 20 MHz

2,4

5

700 MHz ?

WRC 19


≈ 380 MHz used for

mobile broadband

today

2020

800

900

1800

”3G”

2,6

3,4-3,8

450 700

1,5

2,3

2,4

5

700 MHz ?

WRC 19


≈ 380 MHz used for

mobile broadband

today

≈ Three (3) times

Remaining 1.33-1.8 times (2020)

Would have to be solved by implementing:

• Technology improvements, increased spectral efficiency

• Small cells outdoor densification

• Indoor offloading to indoor mobile networks(including LAA) and carrier WiFi

• …

Second take: the correct question

Can we allocate the amount of spectrum that maximise the societal benefit


To allocating a certain spectrum band for mobile broadband the analysis need to show that this use would maximise the societal benefit in Sweden


To allocating a certain spectrum band for mobile broadband the analysis need to show that this use would maximise the societal benefit in Sweden

Mobile broadband needs to be a better use of the spectrum band than other alternatives


• The spectrum release plan becomes an option list.

• Before each release of new spectrum an assessment will be made


• The spectrum release plan becomes an option list.

• Before each release of new spectrum an assessment will be made

• Taking into account the current available spectrum and the declining marginal utility of adding more spectrum


800

900 60

60 MHz

70 MHz

1800 140 MHz

10 MHz

”3G” 120 MHz

2,6 190 MHz

3,4-3,8 368 MHz

450 10 MHz

2,4 83,5 MHz

5 455 MHz 538 MHz


All users = 10 MHz


All users = 10 MHz


Taking into account the current available spectrum and the declining marginal utility of adding more spectrum

A simplified example, 700 MHz band:




The value proposition: more sub 1 GHz spectrum suitable for facilitating indoor and rural mobile broadband coverage





80 MHz is an 62% increase on top of 800 and 900 MHz, similar properties





80 MHz is an 62% increase on top of 800 and 900 MHz, similar properties

(80 MHz is an 8% increase on the total amount)





-> More indoor and rural capacity at a lower production cost





-> More indoor and rural capacity at a lower production cost

-> Some of the value of the band could be used to fulfil political policy targets (for example by adding coverage requirements)




The value proposition: more “high” band spectrum suitable for boosting capacity in urban areas

100 MHz is an 10% increase on the total amount




The value proposition: more “high” band spectrum suitable for boosting capacity in urban areas

100 MHz is an 10% increase on the total amount

-> more capacity in urban areas at a lower production cost




Urban areas <-> national licenses ?





Combined area coverage, outdoor, mobile held to head.

GSM (900 MHz) ≈ 83% (90%)

LTE (800 & 900 MHz) ≈ 48% (62%) -> (90%)





LTE (2.6 GHz) ≈ 1% ( 3%) , allocated 2008





LTE (2.6 GHz) ≈ 1% ( 3%) , allocated 2008

The opportunity cost for allowing geographically orthogonal services in the remaining up to 90 % of the country could be extremely low !





For high bands geographical restrictions and/or secondary use will be important issues


PTS statistics Mobile data traffic, year on year growth (%)

+89 %

+73 %

+54 %

+31 %

PTS statistics Subscriptions, year on year growth (%)

+ 9 %

+ 2%

0 %

”Smartphone” subscriptions

Data only subscriptions

All mobile subscriptions

PTS statistics Number of Subscriptions (millions)

42 %

16%




PTS statistics Number of Subscriptions (millions)

42 %

16%




* Swedish population 9 767 357 , SCB 31 March 2015

*

Actual figures in Sweden

Ericsson 40 % CAGR until 2020

Doubling each year (1000 times)

Mobile data traffic increase (base 2010)

70 times

PTS statistics

Spectrum crunch ?




Mobile data traffic increase (base 2010)

70 times

The role of the operators




Mobile data traffic increase (base year 2010)

Price and usage caps

800

900 60

60 MHz

70 MHz

1800 140 MHz

10 MHz

”3G” 120 MHz

2,6 190 MHz

3,4-3,8 368 MHz

450 10 MHz

2,4 83,5 MHz

5 455 MHz 538 MHz


All users = 10 MHz


All users = 10 MHz


The role of the regulator





Production cost relating

to spectrum scarcity

2020

800

900

1800

”3G”

2,6

3,4-3,8

450 700

1,5

2,3

2,4

5

700 MHz ?



All users = 20 MHz

Then what about 5G

Then what about 5G

• Harmonisation and repurposing spectrum normally has a lead-time of about 10 year

Then what about 5G


• ITU-R will not allocate spectrum recourses for 5G, countries will

Then what about 5G


• ITU-R will not allocate spectrum recourses for 5G, countries will

• If the target is 2020 we are already late

Then what about 5G

5G is supposed to be the solution for 2020-2030

• That is 5-15 years from now

Then what about 5G



• Forecasts of user behaviour and technology development more than 5 years into the future are normally unreliable

Then what about 5G



• Forecasts of user behaviour and technology development more than 5 years into the future are normally unreliable

• 15 years…extremely…

Then what about 5G

With lead-times of about 10 year and forecasts unreliable at best

Then what about 5G


• We as an regulator needs to guarantee that we have the need flexibility for the 2020-2030 timeframe

• Planning for different future outcomes

Then what about 5G

40 % CAGR

20 % CAGR

60 % CAGR


≈18 times

difference

Then what about 5G




M2M subscriptions

Number of Subscriptions (millions)

5.6 million

Then what about 5G

10 Giga User Experience, 1000x Capacity

Then what about 5G

2020

800

900

1800

”3G”

2,6

3,4-3,8

450 700

1,5

2,3 Mobiloperatörerna = 1168 MHz

Alla användare = 20 MHz

2,4

5

700 MHz ?

WRC 19


Cost efficient use of 1.9 GHz

Then what about 5G

Likely new agenda item for WRC 19

• New mobile allocations and/or IMT identification of frequency bands in the 6 GHz to100 GHz range

• How much ? Hundreds of MHz lower bands A few GHz in higher bands

• Need for outdoor, indoor and short haul backhaul

20 GHz

20 GHz 30 GHz

30 GHz 40 GHz

40 GHz 50 GHz

50 GHz 60 GHz

60 GHz 70 GHz

70 GHz 80 GHz

80 GHz 90 GHz

18 GHz

23 GHz 26 GHz 28 GHz

38 GHz 32 GHz

70/80 GHz

70/80 GHz

90 GHz 100 GHz

10 GHz

42 GHz 50 GHz

52 GHz 55 GHz

95 GHz

60 GHz 65 GHz

60 GHz

31 GHz

15 GHz 13 GHz 11 GHz 10 GHz

95 GHz

P-P/P-MP

Mobile Reg1

Then what about 5G

Using radio link bands can be:

• A problem, while the current users need to move out of the band in high density areas.

Then what about 5G

Using radio link bands can be:

• A problem, while the current users need to move out of the band in high density areas.

• A possibility, the majority of p-p radio links in Sweden is operated by the mobile operators -> internal sharing (by design ?)

20 GHz

20 GHz 30 GHz

30 GHz 40 GHz

40 GHz 50 GHz

50 GHz 60 GHz

60 GHz 70 GHz

70 GHz 80 GHz

80 GHz 90 GHz

18 GHz

23 GHz 26 GHz 28 GHz

38 GHz 32 GHz

70/80 GHz

70/80 GHz

90 GHz 100 GHz

10 GHz

42 GHz 50 GHz

52 GHz 55 GHz

95 GHz

60 GHz 65 GHz

60 GHz

31 GHz

15 GHz 13 GHz 11 GHz 10 GHz

95 GHz

P-P/P-MP

Mobile Reg1

The 60 GHz band

• 9 GHz wide, RLAN indoor use !

• Harmonised by EU decision

• Addressed by existing WLAN standard, 802.11ad Up to 6,75 Gbit/s In room communication

Then what about 5G

60 GHz band

Picture from Agilent Application Note: Wireless LAN at 60 GHz - IEEE 802.11ad Explained

Then what about 5G

Then what about 5G


• We as an regulator needs to guarantee that we have the need flexibility for the 2020-2030 timeframe

• Planning for different future outcomes

Invitation

The spectrum department is Always interested in new developments:

• In technology

• In usage

• In business cases

• Anything of relevance for future spectrum use

If you have information come and visit us !

[email protected]

+46 8 678 5886

mailto:[email protected]

Spectrum for mobile A Swedish perspective for 2020 and …¶r-4G-och-5G.pdf · Outline for this...

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