Spectral Decomposition of Demand-Side Flexibility for Reliable Ancillary Services
71
Spectral Decomposition of Demand-Side Flexibility for Reliable Ancillary Services International Conference on System Sciences Kauai — January 5-8, 2015 Sean P. Meyn Prabir Barooah and Ana Buˇ si´ c Yue Chen, Jordan Ehren, He Hao Electrical and Computer Engineering & Florida Institute for Sustainable Energy University of Florida Thanks to NSF, AFOSR, and DOE / TCIPG
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Transcript of Spectral Decomposition of Demand-Side Flexibility for Reliable Ancillary Services
Spectral Decomposition of Demand-Side Flexibilityfor Reliable Ancillary Services
International Conference on System SciencesKauai — January 5-8, 2015
Sean P. Meyn
Prabir Barooah and Ana Busic
Yue Chen, Jordan Ehren, He Hao
Electrical and Computer Engineering & Florida Institute for Sustainable Energy
University of Florida
Thanks to NSF, AFOSR, and DOE / TCIPG
Demand-Side Flexibility for Reliable Ancillary ServicesOutline
1 What Do We Want?
2 Spectral Decomposition
3 Buildings as Batteries
4 Intelligent Pools in Florida
5 Conclusions
Contour Map: Real Time Market - Locational Marginal Pricing Help?
$10/MWh
Nirvana @ ERCOT
What Do We Want From DR?
What Do We Want?
We want: Responsive RegulationPlot of wind generation output in BPA — First week of 2015
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4 GW (t) = Wind generation in BPA, Jan 2015
Scary ramps
1 / 15
What Do We Want?
We want: Responsive RegulationDemand Dispatch the Answer?
A partial list of the needs of the grid operator, and the consumer:
High quality AS?
Reliable?
Cost effective?
Is the incentive to the consumer reliable?
Customer QoS constraints satisfied?
Demand Dispatch can do all of this! (by design)
2 / 15
What Do We Want?
We want: Responsive RegulationDemand Dispatch the Answer?
A partial list of the needs of the grid operator, and the consumer:
High quality AS? (Ancillary Service)Does the deviation in power consumption accurately track the desireddeviation target?
Reliable?
Cost effective?
Is the incentive to the consumer reliable?
Customer QoS constraints satisfied?
Demand Dispatch can do all of this! (by design)
2 / 15
What Do We Want?
We want: Responsive RegulationDemand Dispatch the Answer?
A partial list of the needs of the grid operator, and the consumer:
High quality AS? (Ancillary Service)
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00
Reg
ulat
ion
(MW
)
Gen 'A' Actual Regulation
Gen 'A' Requested Regulation
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
:
Reg
ulat
ion
(MW
)
Gen 'B' Actual Regulation
Gen 'B' Requested Regulation
Fig. 10. Coal-�red generators do not follow regulation signals precisely.... Some do better than others
Reg service from generators is not perfect
Reliable?Cost effective?Is the incentive to the consumer reliable?Customer QoS constraints satisfied?
Demand Dispatch can do all of this! (by design)
2 / 15
What Do We Want?
We want: Responsive RegulationDemand Dispatch the Answer?
A partial list of the needs of the grid operator, and the consumer:
High quality AS?
Reliable?Will AS be available each day?It may vary with time, but capacity must be predictable.
Cost effective?
Is the incentive to the consumer reliable?
Customer QoS constraints satisfied?
Demand Dispatch can do all of this! (by design)
2 / 15
What Do We Want?
We want: Responsive RegulationDemand Dispatch the Answer?
A partial list of the needs of the grid operator, and the consumer:
High quality AS?
Reliable?
Cost effective?This includes installation cost, communication cost, maintenance,and environmental.
Is the incentive to the consumer reliable?
Customer QoS constraints satisfied?
Demand Dispatch can do all of this! (by design)
2 / 15
What Do We Want?
We want: Responsive RegulationDemand Dispatch the Answer?
A partial list of the needs of the grid operator, and the consumer:
High quality AS?
Reliable?
Cost effective?
Is the incentive to the consumer reliable?If a consumer receives a $50 payment for one month, and only $1 thenext, will there be an explanation that is clear to the consumer?
Customer QoS constraints satisfied?
Demand Dispatch can do all of this! (by design)
2 / 15
What Do We Want?
We want: Responsive RegulationDemand Dispatch the Answer?
A partial list of the needs of the grid operator, and the consumer:
High quality AS?
Reliable?
Cost effective?
Is the incentive to the consumer reliable?
Customer QoS constraints satisfied?The pool must be clean, fresh fish stays cold, building climate issubject to strict bounds, farm irrigation is subject to strict constraints,data centers require sufficient power to perform their tasks.
Demand Dispatch can do all of this! (by design)
2 / 15
What Do We Want?
We want: Responsive RegulationDemand Dispatch the Answer?
A partial list of the needs of the grid operator, and the consumer:
High quality AS?
Reliable?
Cost effective?
Is the incentive to the consumer reliable?
Customer QoS constraints satisfied?
Demand Dispatch can do all of this! (by design)
2 / 15
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
G1
Spectral Decomposition
Spectral Decomposition
Taming Scary Ramps – An Example from BPA
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4 GW (t) = Wind generation in BPA, Jan 2015
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4 GW (t) = Wind generation in BPA, Jan 2015
Scary ramps
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4 G
Goal:
W (t) = Wind generation in BPA, Jan 2015
Scary ramps
GW (t) +Gr(t) ≡ 4GW
Sca
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4 G
Goal:
W (t) = Wind generation in BPA, Jan 2015
Scary
Scary Scary
Scary
Scary GW (t) +Gr(t) ≡ 4GW
Can the product be obtained from generation?
Gr(t)
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Goal: GW (t) +Gr(t) ≡ 4GW
Can the product be obtained from generation?
Gr(t)
Gr(t)
Scary
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Proposal:
Gr(t)
Scary
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Proposal:
Gr(t)
Scary
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
H1 : Low pass
H2 : Band pass
H3 : High pass
Gi = HiGr
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Proposal:
Similar to PJM’s RegA/D
Gr(t)
Scary
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
H1 : Low pass
H2 : Band pass
H3 : High pass
Gi = HiGr
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
G1
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
G1
Not at all scary!Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
G1
G2
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
G1
G2
G3
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
Nothing Scary Here!
G1
G2
G3
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
G1
G2
G
Gas-turbine/hydro
3
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
G1
G2
G
Gas-turbine/hydro
Chillers/pool pumps
3
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
G1
G2
G
Gas-turbine/hydro
Chillers/pool pumps
Interior commercial HVAC3
3 / 15
Spectral Decomposition
Taming Scary Ramps – An Example from BPA
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4 GW (t) = Wind generation in BPA, Jan 2015
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4 GW (t) = Wind generation in BPA, Jan 2015
Scary ramps
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4 G
Goal:
W (t) = Wind generation in BPA, Jan 2015
Scary ramps
GW (t) +Gr(t) ≡ 4GW
Sca
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4 G
Goal:
W (t) = Wind generation in BPA, Jan 2015
Scary
Scary Scary
Scary
Scary GW (t) +Gr(t) ≡ 4GW
Can the product be obtained from generation?
Gr(t)
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Goal: GW (t) +Gr(t) ≡ 4GW
Can the product be obtained from generation?
Gr(t)
Gr(t)
Scary
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Proposal:
Gr(t)
Scary
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Proposal:
Gr(t)
Scary
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
H1 : Low pass
H2 : Band pass
H3 : High pass
Gi = HiGr
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Proposal:
Similar to PJM’s RegA/D
Gr(t)
Scary
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
H1 : Low pass
H2 : Band pass
H3 : High pass
Gi = HiGr
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
G1
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
G1
Not at all scary!Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
G1
G2
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
G1
G2
G3
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
Nothing Scary Here!
G1
G2
G3
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
G1
G2
G
Gas-turbine/hydro
3
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
G1
G2
G
Gas-turbine/hydro
Chillers/pool pumps
3
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
G1
G2
G
Gas-turbine/hydro
Chillers/pool pumps
Interior commercial HVAC3
3 / 15
Spectral Decomposition
Taming Scary Ramps – An Example from BPA
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4 GW (t) = Wind generation in BPA, Jan 2015
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4 GW (t) = Wind generation in BPA, Jan 2015
Scary ramps
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4 G
Goal:
W (t) = Wind generation in BPA, Jan 2015
Scary ramps
GW (t) +Gr(t) ≡ 4GW
Sca
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4 G
Goal:
W (t) = Wind generation in BPA, Jan 2015
Scary
Scary Scary
Scary
Scary GW (t) +Gr(t) ≡ 4GW
Can the product be obtained from generation?
Gr(t)
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Goal: GW (t) +Gr(t) ≡ 4GW
Can the product be obtained from generation?
Gr(t)
Gr(t)
Scary
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Proposal:
Gr(t)
Scary
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Proposal:
Gr(t)
Scary
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
H1 : Low pass
H2 : Band pass
H3 : High pass
Gi = HiGr
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Proposal:
Similar to PJM’s RegA/D
Gr(t)
Scary
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
H1 : Low pass
H2 : Band pass
H3 : High pass
Gi = HiGr
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
G1
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
G1
Not at all scary!Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
G1
G2
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
G1
G2
G3
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
Nothing Scary Here!
G1
G2
G3
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
G1
G2
G
Gas-turbine/hydro
3
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
G1
G2
G
Gas-turbine/hydro
Chillers/pool pumps
3
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
G1
G2
G
Gas-turbine/hydro
Chillers/pool pumps
Interior commercial HVAC3
3 / 15
Spectral Decomposition
Taming Scary Ramps – An Example from BPA
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4 GW (t) = Wind generation in BPA, Jan 2015
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4 GW (t) = Wind generation in BPA, Jan 2015
Scary ramps
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4 G
Goal:
W (t) = Wind generation in BPA, Jan 2015
Scary ramps
GW (t) +Gr(t) ≡ 4GW
Sca
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4 G
Goal:
W (t) = Wind generation in BPA, Jan 2015
Scary
Scary Scary
Scary
Scary GW (t) +Gr(t) ≡ 4GW
Can the product be obtained from generation?
Gr(t)
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Goal: GW (t) +Gr(t) ≡ 4GW
Can the product be obtained from generation?
Gr(t)
Gr(t)
Scary
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Proposal:
Gr(t)
Scary
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Proposal:
Gr(t)
Scary
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
H1 : Low pass
H2 : Band pass
H3 : High pass
Gi = HiGr
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Proposal:
Similar to PJM’s RegA/D
Gr(t)
Scary
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
H1 : Low pass
H2 : Band pass
H3 : High pass
Gi = HiGr
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
G1
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
G1
Not at all scary!Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
G1
G2
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
G1
G2
G3
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
Nothing Scary Here!
G1
G2
G3
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
G1
G2
G
Gas-turbine/hydro
3
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
G1
G2
G
Gas-turbine/hydro
Chillers/pool pumps
3
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
G1
G2
G
Gas-turbine/hydro
Chillers/pool pumps
Interior commercial HVAC3
3 / 15
Spectral Decomposition
Taming Scary Ramps – An Example from BPA
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4 GW (t) = Wind generation in BPA, Jan 2015
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4 GW (t) = Wind generation in BPA, Jan 2015
Scary ramps
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4 G
Goal:
W (t) = Wind generation in BPA, Jan 2015
Scary ramps
GW (t) +Gr(t) ≡ 4GW
Sca
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4 G
Goal:
W (t) = Wind generation in BPA, Jan 2015
Scary
Scary Scary
Scary
Scary GW (t) +Gr(t) ≡ 4GW
Can the product be obtained from generation?
Gr(t)
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Goal: GW (t) +Gr(t) ≡ 4GW
Can the product be obtained from generation?
Gr(t)
Gr(t)
Scary
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Proposal:
Gr(t)
Scary
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Proposal:
Gr(t)
Scary
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
H1 : Low pass
H2 : Band pass
H3 : High pass
Gi = HiGr
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Proposal:
Similar to PJM’s RegA/D
Gr(t)
Scary
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
H1 : Low pass
H2 : Band pass
H3 : High pass
Gi = HiGr
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
G1
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
G1
Not at all scary!Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
G1
G2
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
G1
G2
G3
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
Nothing Scary Here!
G1
G2
G3
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
G1
G2
G
Gas-turbine/hydro
3
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
G1
G2
G
Gas-turbine/hydro
Chillers/pool pumps
3
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
G1
G2
G
Gas-turbine/hydro
Chillers/pool pumps
Interior commercial HVAC3
3 / 15
Spectral Decomposition
Taming Scary Ramps – An Example from BPA
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4 GW (t) = Wind generation in BPA, Jan 2015
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4 GW (t) = Wind generation in BPA, Jan 2015
Scary ramps
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4 G
Goal:
W (t) = Wind generation in BPA, Jan 2015
Scary ramps
GW (t) +Gr(t) ≡ 4GW
Sca
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4 G
Goal:
W (t) = Wind generation in BPA, Jan 2015
Scary
Scary Scary
Scary
Scary GW (t) +Gr(t) ≡ 4GW
Can the product be obtained from generation?
Gr(t)
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Goal: GW (t) +Gr(t) ≡ 4GW
Can the product be obtained from generation?
Gr(t)
Gr(t)
Scary
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Proposal:
Gr(t)
Scary
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Proposal:
Gr(t)
Scary
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
H1 : Low pass
H2 : Band pass
H3 : High pass
Gi = HiGr
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Proposal:
Similar to PJM’s RegA/D
Gr(t)
Scary
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
H1 : Low pass
H2 : Band pass
H3 : High pass
Gi = HiGr
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
G1
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
G1
Not at all scary!Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
G1
G2
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
G1
G2
G3
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
Nothing Scary Here!
G1
G2
G3
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
G1
G2
G
Gas-turbine/hydro
3
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
G1
G2
G
Gas-turbine/hydro
Chillers/pool pumps
3
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
G1
G2
G
Gas-turbine/hydro
Chillers/pool pumps
Interior commercial HVAC3
3 / 15
Spectral Decomposition
Taming Scary Ramps – An Example from BPA
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4 GW (t) = Wind generation in BPA, Jan 2015
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4 GW (t) = Wind generation in BPA, Jan 2015
Scary ramps
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4 G
Goal:
W (t) = Wind generation in BPA, Jan 2015
Scary ramps
GW (t) +Gr(t) ≡ 4GW
Sca
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4 G
Goal:
W (t) = Wind generation in BPA, Jan 2015
Scary
Scary Scary
Scary
Scary GW (t) +Gr(t) ≡ 4GW
Can the product be obtained from generation?
Gr(t)
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Goal: GW (t) +Gr(t) ≡ 4GW
Can the product be obtained from generation?
Gr(t)
Gr(t)
Scary
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Proposal:
Gr(t)
Scary
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Proposal:
Gr(t)
Scary
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
H1 : Low pass
H2 : Band pass
H3 : High pass
Gi = HiGr
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Proposal:
Similar to PJM’s RegA/D
Gr(t)
Scary
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
H1 : Low pass
H2 : Band pass
H3 : High pass
Gi = HiGr
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
G1
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
G1
Not at all scary!Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
G1
G2
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
G1
G2
G3
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
Nothing Scary Here!
G1
G2
G3
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
G1
G2
G
Gas-turbine/hydro
3
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
G1
G2
G
Gas-turbine/hydro
Chillers/pool pumps
3
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
G1
G2
G
Gas-turbine/hydro
Chillers/pool pumps
Interior commercial HVAC3
3 / 15
Spectral Decomposition
Taming Scary Ramps – An Example from BPA
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4 GW (t) = Wind generation in BPA, Jan 2015
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4 GW (t) = Wind generation in BPA, Jan 2015
Scary ramps
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4 G
Goal:
W (t) = Wind generation in BPA, Jan 2015
Scary ramps
GW (t) +Gr(t) ≡ 4GW
Sca
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4 G
Goal:
W (t) = Wind generation in BPA, Jan 2015
Scary
Scary Scary
Scary
Scary GW (t) +Gr(t) ≡ 4GW
Can the product be obtained from generation?
Gr(t)
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Goal: GW (t) +Gr(t) ≡ 4GW
Can the product be obtained from generation?
Gr(t)
Gr(t)
Scary
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Proposal:
Gr(t)
Scary
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Proposal:
Gr(t)
Scary
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
H1 : Low pass
H2 : Band pass
H3 : High pass
Gi = HiGr
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Proposal:
Similar to PJM’s RegA/D
Gr(t)
Scary
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
H1 : Low pass
H2 : Band pass
H3 : High pass
Gi = HiGr
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
G1
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
G1
Not at all scary!Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
G1
G2
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
G1
G2
G3
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
Nothing Scary Here!
G1
G2
G3
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
G1
G2
G
Gas-turbine/hydro
3
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
G1
G2
G
Gas-turbine/hydro
Chillers/pool pumps
3
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
G1
G2
G
Gas-turbine/hydro
Chillers/pool pumps
Interior commercial HVAC3
3 / 15
Spectral Decomposition
Taming Scary Ramps – An Example from BPA
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4 GW (t) = Wind generation in BPA, Jan 2015
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4 GW (t) = Wind generation in BPA, Jan 2015
Scary ramps
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4 G
Goal:
W (t) = Wind generation in BPA, Jan 2015
Scary ramps
GW (t) +Gr(t) ≡ 4GW
Sca
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4 G
Goal:
W (t) = Wind generation in BPA, Jan 2015
Scary
Scary Scary
Scary
Scary GW (t) +Gr(t) ≡ 4GW
Can the product be obtained from generation?
Gr(t)
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Goal: GW (t) +Gr(t) ≡ 4GW
Can the product be obtained from generation?
Gr(t)
Gr(t)
Scary
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Proposal:
Gr(t)
Scary
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Proposal:
Gr(t)
Scary
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
H1 : Low pass
H2 : Band pass
H3 : High pass
Gi = HiGr
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Proposal:
Similar to PJM’s RegA/D
Gr(t)
Scary
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
H1 : Low pass
H2 : Band pass
H3 : High pass
Gi = HiGr
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
G1
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
G1
Not at all scary!Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
G1
G2
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
G1
G2
G3
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
Nothing Scary Here!
G1
G2
G3
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
G1
G2
G
Gas-turbine/hydro
3
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
G1
G2
G
Gas-turbine/hydro
Chillers/pool pumps
3
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
G1
G2
G
Gas-turbine/hydro
Chillers/pool pumps
Interior commercial HVAC3
3 / 15
Spectral Decomposition
Taming Scary Ramps – An Example from BPA
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4 GW (t) = Wind generation in BPA, Jan 2015
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4 GW (t) = Wind generation in BPA, Jan 2015
Scary ramps
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4 G
Goal:
W (t) = Wind generation in BPA, Jan 2015
Scary ramps
GW (t) +Gr(t) ≡ 4GW
Sca
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4 G
Goal:
W (t) = Wind generation in BPA, Jan 2015
Scary
Scary Scary
Scary
Scary GW (t) +Gr(t) ≡ 4GW
Can the product be obtained from generation?
Gr(t)
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Goal: GW (t) +Gr(t) ≡ 4GW
Can the product be obtained from generation?
Gr(t)
Gr(t)
Scary
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Proposal:
Gr(t)
Scary
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Proposal:
Gr(t)
Scary
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
H1 : Low pass
H2 : Band pass
H3 : High pass
Gi = HiGr
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Proposal:
Similar to PJM’s RegA/D
Gr(t)
Scary
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
H1 : Low pass
H2 : Band pass
H3 : High pass
Gi = HiGr
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
G1
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
G1
Not at all scary!
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
G1
G2
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
G1
G2
G3
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
Nothing Scary Here!
G1
G2
G3
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
G1
G2
G
Gas-turbine/hydro
3
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
G1
G2
G
Gas-turbine/hydro
Chillers/pool pumps
3
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
G1
G2
G
Gas-turbine/hydro
Chillers/pool pumps
Interior commercial HVAC3
3 / 15
Spectral Decomposition
Taming Scary Ramps – An Example from BPA
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4 GW (t) = Wind generation in BPA, Jan 2015
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4 GW (t) = Wind generation in BPA, Jan 2015
Scary ramps
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4 G
Goal:
W (t) = Wind generation in BPA, Jan 2015
Scary ramps
GW (t) +Gr(t) ≡ 4GW
Sca
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4 G
Goal:
W (t) = Wind generation in BPA, Jan 2015
Scary
Scary Scary
Scary
Scary GW (t) +Gr(t) ≡ 4GW
Can the product be obtained from generation?
Gr(t)
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Goal: GW (t) +Gr(t) ≡ 4GW
Can the product be obtained from generation?
Gr(t)
Gr(t)
Scary
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Proposal:
Gr(t)
Scary
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Proposal:
Gr(t)
Scary
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
H1 : Low pass
H2 : Band pass
H3 : High pass
Gi = HiGr
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Proposal:
Similar to PJM’s RegA/D
Gr(t)
Scary
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
H1 : Low pass
H2 : Band pass
H3 : High pass
Gi = HiGr
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
G1
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
G1
Not at all scary!
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
G1
G2
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
G1
G2
G3
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
Nothing Scary Here!
G1
G2
G3
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
G1
G2
G
Gas-turbine/hydro
3
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
G1
G2
G
Gas-turbine/hydro
Chillers/pool pumps
3
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
G1
G2
G
Gas-turbine/hydro
Chillers/pool pumps
Interior commercial HVAC3
3 / 15
Spectral Decomposition
Taming Scary Ramps – An Example from BPA
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4 GW (t) = Wind generation in BPA, Jan 2015
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4 GW (t) = Wind generation in BPA, Jan 2015
Scary ramps
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4 G
Goal:
W (t) = Wind generation in BPA, Jan 2015
Scary ramps
GW (t) +Gr(t) ≡ 4GW
Sca
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4 G
Goal:
W (t) = Wind generation in BPA, Jan 2015
Scary
Scary Scary
Scary
Scary GW (t) +Gr(t) ≡ 4GW
Can the product be obtained from generation?
Gr(t)
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Goal: GW (t) +Gr(t) ≡ 4GW
Can the product be obtained from generation?
Gr(t)
Gr(t)
Scary
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Proposal:
Gr(t)
Scary
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Proposal:
Gr(t)
Scary
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
H1 : Low pass
H2 : Band pass
H3 : High pass
Gi = HiGr
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Proposal:
Similar to PJM’s RegA/D
Gr(t)
Scary
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
H1 : Low pass
H2 : Band pass
H3 : High pass
Gi = HiGr
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
G1
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
G1
Not at all scary!Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
G1
G2
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
G1
G2
G3
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
Nothing Scary Here!
G1
G2
G3
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
G1
G2
G
Gas-turbine/hydro
3
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
G1
G2
G
Gas-turbine/hydro
Chillers/pool pumps
3
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
G1
G2
G
Gas-turbine/hydro
Chillers/pool pumps
Interior commercial HVAC3
3 / 15
Spectral Decomposition
Taming Scary Ramps – An Example from BPA
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4 GW (t) = Wind generation in BPA, Jan 2015
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4 GW (t) = Wind generation in BPA, Jan 2015
Scary ramps
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4 G
Goal:
W (t) = Wind generation in BPA, Jan 2015
Scary ramps
GW (t) +Gr(t) ≡ 4GW
Sca
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4 G
Goal:
W (t) = Wind generation in BPA, Jan 2015
Scary
Scary Scary
Scary
Scary GW (t) +Gr(t) ≡ 4GW
Can the product be obtained from generation?
Gr(t)
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Goal: GW (t) +Gr(t) ≡ 4GW
Can the product be obtained from generation?
Gr(t)
Gr(t)
Scary
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Proposal:
Gr(t)
Scary
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Proposal:
Gr(t)
Scary
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
H1 : Low pass
H2 : Band pass
H3 : High pass
Gi = HiGr
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Proposal:
Similar to PJM’s RegA/D
Gr(t)
Scary
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
H1 : Low pass
H2 : Band pass
H3 : High pass
Gi = HiGr
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
G1
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
G1
Not at all scary!Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
G1
G2
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
G1
G2
G3
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
Nothing Scary Here!
G1
G2
G3
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
G1
G2
G
Gas-turbine/hydro
3
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
G1
G2
G
Gas-turbine/hydro
Chillers/pool pumps
3
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
G1
G2
G
Gas-turbine/hydro
Chillers/pool pumps
Interior commercial HVAC3
3 / 15
Spectral Decomposition
Taming Scary Ramps – An Example from BPA
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4 GW (t) = Wind generation in BPA, Jan 2015
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4 GW (t) = Wind generation in BPA, Jan 2015
Scary ramps
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4 G
Goal:
W (t) = Wind generation in BPA, Jan 2015
Scary ramps
GW (t) +Gr(t) ≡ 4GW
Sca
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4 G
Goal:
W (t) = Wind generation in BPA, Jan 2015
Scary
Scary Scary
Scary
Scary GW (t) +Gr(t) ≡ 4GW
Can the product be obtained from generation?
Gr(t)
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Goal: GW (t) +Gr(t) ≡ 4GW
Can the product be obtained from generation?
Gr(t)
Gr(t)
Scary
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Proposal:
Gr(t)
Scary
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Proposal:
Gr(t)
Scary
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
H1 : Low pass
H2 : Band pass
H3 : High pass
Gi = HiGr
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Proposal:
Similar to PJM’s RegA/D
Gr(t)
Scary
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
H1 : Low pass
H2 : Band pass
H3 : High pass
Gi = HiGr
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
G1
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
G1
Not at all scary!Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
G1
G2
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
G1
G2
G3
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
Nothing Scary Here!
G1
G2
G3
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
G1
G2
G
Gas-turbine/hydro
3
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
G1
G2
G
Gas-turbine/hydro
Chillers/pool pumps
3
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
G1
G2
G
Gas-turbine/hydro
Chillers/pool pumps
Interior commercial HVAC3
3 / 15
Spectral Decomposition
Taming Scary Ramps – An Example from BPA
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4 GW (t) = Wind generation in BPA, Jan 2015
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4 GW (t) = Wind generation in BPA, Jan 2015
Scary ramps
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4 G
Goal:
W (t) = Wind generation in BPA, Jan 2015
Scary ramps
GW (t) +Gr(t) ≡ 4GW
Sca
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4 G
Goal:
W (t) = Wind generation in BPA, Jan 2015
Scary
Scary Scary
Scary
Scary GW (t) +Gr(t) ≡ 4GW
Can the product be obtained from generation?
Gr(t)
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Goal: GW (t) +Gr(t) ≡ 4GW
Can the product be obtained from generation?
Gr(t)
Gr(t)
Scary
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Proposal:
Gr(t)
Scary
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Proposal:
Gr(t)
Scary
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
H1 : Low pass
H2 : Band pass
H3 : High pass
Gi = HiGr
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Proposal:
Similar to PJM’s RegA/D
Gr(t)
Scary
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
H1 : Low pass
H2 : Band pass
H3 : High pass
Gi = HiGr
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
G1
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
G1
Not at all scary!Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
G1
G2
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
G1
G2
G3
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
Nothing Scary Here!
G1
G2
G3
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
G1
G2
G
Gas-turbine/hydro
3
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
G1
G2
G
Gas-turbine/hydro
Chillers/pool pumps
3
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
G1
G2
G
Gas-turbine/hydro
Chillers/pool pumps
Interior commercial HVAC3
3 / 15
Spectral Decomposition
Taming Scary Ramps – An Example from BPA
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4 GW (t) = Wind generation in BPA, Jan 2015
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4 GW (t) = Wind generation in BPA, Jan 2015
Scary ramps
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4 G
Goal:
W (t) = Wind generation in BPA, Jan 2015
Scary ramps
GW (t) +Gr(t) ≡ 4GW
Sca
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4 G
Goal:
W (t) = Wind generation in BPA, Jan 2015
Scary
Scary Scary
Scary
Scary GW (t) +Gr(t) ≡ 4GW
Can the product be obtained from generation?
Gr(t)
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Goal: GW (t) +Gr(t) ≡ 4GW
Can the product be obtained from generation?
Gr(t)
Gr(t)
Scary
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Proposal:
Gr(t)
Scary
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Proposal:
Gr(t)
Scary
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
H1 : Low pass
H2 : Band pass
H3 : High pass
Gi = HiGr
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Proposal:
Similar to PJM’s RegA/D
Gr(t)
Scary
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
H1 : Low pass
H2 : Band pass
H3 : High pass
Gi = HiGr
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
G1
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
G1
Not at all scary!Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
G1
G2
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
Gr = G1 +G2 +G3
G1
G2
G3
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
Nothing Scary Here!
G1
G2
G3
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
G1
G2
G
Gas-turbine/hydro
3
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
G1
G2
G
Gas-turbine/hydro
Chillers/pool pumps
3
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06
GW
0
1
2
3
4
Gr(t)
G1
G2
G
Gas-turbine/hydro
Chillers/pool pumps
Interior commercial HVAC3
3 / 15
Spectral Decomposition
Control ArchitectureFrequency Decomposition
Power GridControl FlywheelsBatteries
CoalGas Turbine
BP
BP
BP C
BP
BP
Voltage Frequency Phase
HCΣ
−
Actuator feedback loop
A
LOAD
Today: PJM decomposes regulation signal based on bandwidth,R = RegA + RegD
Proposal: Each class of DR (and other) resources will have its ownbandwidth of service, based on QoS constraints and costs.
4 / 15
Spectral Decomposition
Control ArchitectureFrequency Decomposition
Power GridControl FlywheelsBatteries
CoalGas Turbine
BP
BP
BP C
BP
BP
Voltage Frequency Phase
HCΣ
−
Actuator feedback loop
A
LOAD
Today: PJM decomposes regulation signal based on bandwidth,R = RegA + RegD
Proposal: Each class of DR (and other) resources will have its ownbandwidth of service, based on QoS constraints and costs.
4 / 15
Spectral Decomposition
Control ArchitectureExample from BPA
Balancing Reserves from Bonneville Power Authority:
−800−600
-1000
−400−200
0200400600800
BPA Reg signal(one week)
MW
= HVAC + Pool Pumps ?
5 / 15
Spectral Decomposition
Control ArchitectureExample from BPA
Balancing Reserves from Bonneville Power Authority:
−800−600
-1000
−400−200
0200400600800
BPA Reg signal(one week)
MW
0
−800−600
-1000
−400−200
200400600800
MW
−800−600
-1000
−400−200
0200400600800
= +
= HVAC + Pool Pumps ?
5 / 15
Spectral Decomposition
Control ArchitectureExample from BPA
Balancing Reserves from Bonneville Power Authority:
−800−600
-1000
−400−200
0200400600800
BPA Reg signal(one week)
MW
0
−800−600
-1000
−400−200
200400600800
MW
−800−600
-1000
−400−200
0200400600800
= +
= HVAC + Pool Pumps ?
5 / 15
0
−800−600
-1000
−400−200
200400600800
MW
=
Buildings as Batteries
Buildings as Batteries
Buildings as BatteriesHVAC flexibility to provide additional ancillary service
◦ Buildings consume 70% of electricity in the USHVAC contributes to 40% of the consumption.
◦ Buildings have large thermal capacity
◦ Modern buildings have fast-responding equipment:VFDs (variable frequency drive)
6 / 15
Buildings as Batteries
Buildings as BatteriesHVAC flexibility to provide additional ancillary service
◦ Buildings consume 70% of electricity in the USHVAC contributes to 40% of the consumption.
◦ Buildings have large thermal capacity
◦ Modern buildings have fast-responding equipment:VFDs (variable frequency drive)
6 / 15
Buildings as Batteries
Buildings as BatteriesHVAC flexibility to provide additional ancillary service
◦ Buildings consume 70% of electricity in the USHVAC contributes to 40% of the consumption.
◦ Buildings have large thermal capacity
◦ Modern buildings have fast-responding equipment:VFDs (variable frequency drive)
6 / 15
Buildings as Batteries
Buildings as BatteriesHVAC flexibility to provide additional ancillary service
◦ Buildings consume 70% of electricity in the USHVAC contributes to 40% of the consumption.
◦ Buildings have large thermal capacity
◦ Modern buildings have fast-responding equipment:VFDs (variable frequency drive)
6 / 15
Buildings as Batteries
Buildings as BatteriesTracking RegD at Pugh Hall — ignore the measurement noise
In one sentence:
Ramp up and down power consumption, just 10%, totrack regulation signal.Result:
PJM RegD Measured
Power
(kW
)
0
1
-1
0 10 20 30 40Time (minute)
7 / 15
Buildings as Batteries
Buildings as BatteriesTracking RegD at Pugh Hall — ignore the measurement noise
In one sentence: Ramp up and down power consumption, just 10%, totrack regulation signal.
Result:
PJM RegD Measured
Power
(kW
)
0
1
-1
0 10 20 30 40Time (minute)
7 / 15
Buildings as Batteries
Buildings as BatteriesTracking RegD at Pugh Hall — ignore the measurement noise
In one sentence: Ramp up and down power consumption, just 10%, totrack regulation signal.Result:
PJM RegD Measured
Power
(kW
)
0
1
-1
0 10 20 30 40Time (minute)
7 / 15
Buildings as Batteries
Buildings as BatteriesTracking RegD at Pugh Hall — ignore the measurement noise
In one sentence: Ramp up and down power consumption, just 10%, totrack regulation signal.Result:
PJM RegD Measured
Power
(kW
)
0
1
-1
0 10 20 30 40Time (minute)
7 / 15
Buildings as Batteries
Pugh Hall @ UFHow much?
−4
−2
0
2
4
−10
0
10
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500−0.2
0
0.2
Time (s)
Fan Power Deviation (kW )Regulation Signal (kW )
Input (%)
Temperature Deviation (◦C)
. One AHU fan with 25 kW motor:> 3 kW of regulation reserve
. Pugh Hall (40k sq ft, 3 AHUs):> 10 kW
Indoor air quality is not affected
. 100 buildings:> 1 MW
That’s just using the fans!
8 / 15
Buildings as Batteries
Pugh Hall @ UFHow much?
−4
−2
0
2
4
−10
0
10
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500−0.2
0
0.2
Time (s)
Fan Power Deviation (kW )Regulation Signal (kW )
Input (%)
Temperature Deviation (◦C)
. One AHU fan with 25 kW motor:> 3 kW of regulation reserve
. Pugh Hall (40k sq ft, 3 AHUs):> 10 kW
Indoor air quality is not affected
. 100 buildings:> 1 MW
That’s just using the fans!
8 / 15
Buildings as Batteries
Pugh Hall @ UFHow much?
−4
−2
0
2
4
−10
0
10
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500−0.2
0
0.2
Time (s)
Fan Power Deviation (kW )Regulation Signal (kW )
Input (%)
Temperature Deviation (◦C)
. One AHU fan with 25 kW motor:> 3 kW of regulation reserve
. Pugh Hall (40k sq ft, 3 AHUs):> 10 kW
Indoor air quality is not affected
. 100 buildings:> 1 MW
That’s just using the fans!
8 / 15
Buildings as Batteries
Buildings as BatteriesWhat do you think?
Questions:
Capacity?
Tens of Gigawatts from commercial buildings in the US
Can we obtain a resource as effective as today’s spinning reserves?
Yes!! Buildings are well-suited to balancing reserves,and other high-frequency regulation resources
much better than any generator
How to compute baselines?
Who cares? The utility or aggregator is responsible for the equipment –the consumer cannot ‘play games’ in a real time market!
What open issues do you see?
9 / 15
Buildings as Batteries
Buildings as BatteriesWhat do you think?
Questions:
Capacity? Tens of Gigawatts from commercial buildings in the US
Can we obtain a resource as effective as today’s spinning reserves?
Yes!! Buildings are well-suited to balancing reserves,and other high-frequency regulation resources
much better than any generator
How to compute baselines?
Who cares? The utility or aggregator is responsible for the equipment –the consumer cannot ‘play games’ in a real time market!
What open issues do you see?
9 / 15
Buildings as Batteries
Buildings as BatteriesWhat do you think?
Questions:
Capacity? Tens of Gigawatts from commercial buildings in the US
Can we obtain a resource as effective as today’s spinning reserves?
Yes!! Buildings are well-suited to balancing reserves,and other high-frequency regulation resources
much better than any generator
How to compute baselines?
Who cares? The utility or aggregator is responsible for the equipment –the consumer cannot ‘play games’ in a real time market!
What open issues do you see?
9 / 15
Buildings as Batteries
Buildings as BatteriesWhat do you think?
Questions:
Capacity? Tens of Gigawatts from commercial buildings in the US
Can we obtain a resource as effective as today’s spinning reserves?
Yes!! Buildings are well-suited to balancing reserves,and other high-frequency regulation resources
much better than any generator
How to compute baselines?
Who cares? The utility or aggregator is responsible for the equipment –the consumer cannot ‘play games’ in a real time market!
What open issues do you see?
9 / 15
Buildings as Batteries
Buildings as BatteriesWhat do you think?
Questions:
Capacity? Tens of Gigawatts from commercial buildings in the US
Can we obtain a resource as effective as today’s spinning reserves?
Yes!! Buildings are well-suited to balancing reserves,and other high-frequency regulation resources
much better than any generator
How to compute baselines?
Who cares? The utility or aggregator is responsible for the equipment –the consumer cannot ‘play games’ in a real time market!
What open issues do you see?
9 / 15
Buildings as Batteries
Buildings as BatteriesWhat do you think?
Questions:
Capacity? Tens of Gigawatts from commercial buildings in the US
Can we obtain a resource as effective as today’s spinning reserves?
Yes!! Buildings are well-suited to balancing reserves,and other high-frequency regulation resources
much better than any generator
How to compute baselines?
Who cares? The utility or aggregator is responsible for the equipment –the consumer cannot ‘play games’ in a real time market!
What open issues do you see?
9 / 15
Buildings as Batteries
Buildings as BatteriesWhat do you think?
Questions:
Capacity? Tens of Gigawatts from commercial buildings in the US
Can we obtain a resource as effective as today’s spinning reserves?
Yes!! Buildings are well-suited to balancing reserves,and other high-frequency regulation resources
much better than any generator
How to compute baselines?
Who cares? The utility or aggregator is responsible for the equipment –the consumer cannot ‘play games’ in a real time market!
What open issues do you see?
9 / 15
Buildings as Batteries
Buildings as BatteriesWhat do you think?
Questions:
Capacity? Tens of Gigawatts from commercial buildings in the US
Can we obtain a resource as effective as today’s spinning reserves?
Yes!! Buildings are well-suited to balancing reserves,and other high-frequency regulation resources
much better than any generator
How to compute baselines?
Who cares? The utility or aggregator is responsible for the equipment –the consumer cannot ‘play games’ in a real time market!
What open issues do you see?
9 / 15
−600−400−200
0200400600
Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7
MW
Intelligent Pools in Florida
Intelligent Pools in Florida
Example: One Million Pools in FloridaHow Pools Can Help Regulate The Grid
1,5KW 400V
Needs of a single pool
. Filtration system circulates and cleans: Average pool pump uses1.3kW and runs 6-12 hours per day, 7 days per week
. Pool owners are oblivious, until they see frogs and algae
. Pool owners do not trust anyone: Privacy is a big concern
Randomized control strategy is needed.
10 / 15
Intelligent Pools in Florida
Example: One Million Pools in FloridaHow Pools Can Help Regulate The Grid
1,5KW 400V
Needs of a single pool
. Filtration system circulates and cleans: Average pool pump uses1.3kW and runs 6-12 hours per day, 7 days per week
. Pool owners are oblivious, until they see frogs and algae
. Pool owners do not trust anyone: Privacy is a big concern
Randomized control strategy is needed.
10 / 15
Intelligent Pools in Florida
Example: One Million Pools in FloridaHow Pools Can Help Regulate The Grid
1,5KW 400V
Needs of a single pool
. Filtration system circulates and cleans: Average pool pump uses1.3kW and runs 6-12 hours per day, 7 days per week
. Pool owners are oblivious, until they see frogs and algae
. Pool owners do not trust anyone: Privacy is a big concern
Randomized control strategy is needed.
10 / 15
Intelligent Pools in Florida
Example: One Million Pools in FloridaHow Pools Can Help Regulate The Grid
1,5KW 400V
Needs of a single pool
. Filtration system circulates and cleans: Average pool pump uses1.3kW and runs 6-12 hours per day, 7 days per week
. Pool owners are oblivious, until they see frogs and algae
. Pool owners do not trust anyone: Privacy is a big concern
Randomized control strategy is needed.
10 / 15
Intelligent Pools in Florida
Pools in Florida Supply G2 – BPA regulation signal∗Stochastic simulation using N = 105 pools
Reference Output deviation (MW)
−300
−200
−100
0
100
200
300
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160t/hour
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
∗transmission.bpa.gov/Business/Operations/Wind/reserves.aspx
11 / 15
Intelligent Pools in Florida
Pools in Florida Supply G2 – BPA regulation signal∗Stochastic simulation using N = 105 pools
Reference Output deviation (MW)
−300
−200
−100
0
100
200
300
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160t/hour
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
Each pool pump turns on/off with probability depending on1) its internal state, and 2) the BPA reg signal
11 / 15
Power GridControl Water PumpBatteries
CoalGas Turbine
BP
BP
BP C
BP
BP
Voltage Frequency Phase
HCΣ
−
Actuator feedback loop
A
LOAD
Conclusions
Conclusions
ConclusionsWhat we want: Responsive Regulation and Happy Consumers
High quality Ancillary Service
Reliable on many time scales
Cost effective? marginal cost zero?
Is the incentive to the consumer reliable?
Customer QoS constraints satisfied? damn straight!
Demand Dispatch can do all of this!Need for Research in Engineering and Economics
12 / 15
Conclusions
ConclusionsWhat we want: Responsive Regulation and Happy Consumers
We got it!
High quality Ancillary Service
Reliable on many time scales
Cost effective? marginal cost zero?
Is the incentive to the consumer reliable?
Customer QoS constraints satisfied? damn straight!
Demand Dispatch can do all of this!Need for Research in Engineering and Economics
12 / 15
Conclusions
ConclusionsWhat we want: Responsive Regulation and Happy Consumers
High quality Ancillary Service
Reliable on many time scales
Cost effective? marginal cost zero?
Is the incentive to the consumer reliable?
Customer QoS constraints satisfied? damn straight!
Demand Dispatch can do all of this!Need for Research in Engineering and Economics
12 / 15
Conclusions
ConclusionsWhat we want: Responsive Regulation and Happy Consumers
High quality Ancillary Service
Reliable on many time scales
Cost effective? marginal cost zero?
Is the incentive to the consumer reliable?
Customer QoS constraints satisfied? damn straight!
Demand Dispatch can do all of this!
Need for Research in Engineering and Economics
12 / 15
Conclusions
ConclusionsWhat we want: Responsive Regulation and Happy Consumers
High quality Ancillary Service
Reliable on many time scales
Cost effective? marginal cost zero?
Is the incentive to the consumer reliable?A caveat: There is the “tragedy of the commons”
– perhaps not so in Hawaii?
Customer QoS constraints satisfied? damn straight!
Demand Dispatch can do all of this!Need for Research in Engineering and Economics
12 / 15
Conclusions
ConclusionsWhat we want: Responsive Regulation and Happy Consumers
High quality Ancillary Service
Reliable on many time scales
Cost effective? marginal cost zero?
Is the incentive to the consumer reliable?A caveat: There is the “tragedy of the commons”
– perhaps not so in Hawaii?
Customer QoS constraints satisfied? damn straight!
Demand Dispatch can do all of this!
Need for Research in Engineering and Economics
12 / 15
Conclusions
Conclusions
Thank You!
13 / 15
Conclusions
Control TechniquesFOR
Complex Networks
Sean Meyn
Pre-publication version for on-line viewing. Monograph available for purchase at your favorite retailer More information available at http://www.cambridge.org/us/catalogue/catalogue.asp?isbn=9780521884419
Markov Chainsand
Stochastic Stability
S. P. Meyn and R. L. Tweedie
August 2008 Pre-publication version for on-line viewing. Monograph to appear Februrary 2009
π(f)<
∞
∆V (x) ≤ −f(x) + bIC(x)
‖Pn(x, · )− π‖f → 0
sup
CEx [S
τC(f)]<
∞
References
14 / 15
Conclusions
References: Demand Response
A. Brooks, E. Lu, D. Reicher, C. Spirakis, and B. Weihl. Demand dispatch. IEEE Powerand Energy Magazine, 8(3):20–29, May 2010.
H. Hao, T. Middelkoop, P. Barooah, and S. Meyn. How demand response from commercialbuildings will provide the regulation needs of the grid. In 50th Allerton Conference onCommunication, Control, and Computing, pages 1908–1913, 2012.
H. Hao, Y. Lin, A. Kowli, P. Barooah, and S. Meyn. Ancillary service to the grid throughcontrol of fans in commercial building HVAC systems. IEEE Trans. on Smart Grid,5(4):2066–2074, July 2014.
S. Meyn, P. Barooah, A. Busic, Y. Chen, and J. Ehren. Ancillary service to the grid usingintelligent deferrable loads. ArXiv e-prints: arXiv:1402.4600 and to appear, IEEE Trans. onAuto. Control, 2014.
D. Callaway and I. Hiskens, Achieving controllability of electric loads. Proceedings of theIEEE, vol. 99, no. 1, pp. 184–199, 2011.
P. Xu, P. Haves, M. Piette, and J. Braun, Peak demand reduction from pre-cooling withzone temperature reset in an office building, 2004.
D. Watson, S. Kiliccote, N. Motegi, and M. Piette, Strategies for demand response incommercial buildings. In Proceedings of the 2006 ACEEE Summer Study on EnergyEfficiency in Buildings, August 2006.
15 / 15
