South Africa 2 - An Economic Primer

8/20/2019 South Africa 2 - An Economic Primer

1/49

ARC Financial Services Pvt. Ltd.402, Pearls Business Park,Netaji Subhash Place, PitampuraNew Delhi – 110034

(!" #$1 11 4%&2 212', #$1 11 &%42 212'(e!" in)*arc+sc)m (w!" wwwarc+sc)m

R E S E

ARC H

-n .c)n)mic Primer

/hana


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Preface

DomesticProduct

CountryStatistics

Trade and

Investments

MaorIndustrialSectors

Contents


3/49

Preface

DomesticProduct

CountryStatistics

Trade and

Investments


Inde!


4/49

- esearch Partners May’2013 Ghana – An Economic Primer wwwarc+sc)m

R E S E

ARC Hnestment Destinati)ns in -rica

4

Sout"Africa

#i$eria E$y%t Al$eria &"ana 'am(ia

P)pulati)n (mn! 4'& 154% '%3 3'1 2%2 142

-rea (mn, S6 7m! 122 0$2 101 23' 024 05%

/DP (8S9 bn! 3$1 253 2%% 20& 40 21

/DP /r)wth 2&: 51: 20: 2&: '2: &%:

/DP Per apita 11,300 2,500 &,&00 5,%00 3,300 1,500

n;ati)n %2: 121: '%: '%: $1: &%:

Debt t) /DP 433: 1'': '%0: '': 454: 312:

.


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R E S E

ARC H/hana + Stan>in?s

%

5$th rank in/DP )n PPP

basis

134:

e /DP?r)wth,

hi?hest in-rica

153r> rank in /DP

per capita )nPPP basis

2%1: ) /DPwas spent )n?r)ss @

inestment in2012

5thlar?est

recipient )AD in -rica

%2n> rank ) /hana in ?r)ss

@ inestmenteiture

%tha)rable c)untr t)>) business in sub+

Saharan -rica


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R E S E

ARC H

&

/hana + Cacr)ec)n)mic n>icat)rs

)*+* )*++ )*+) )*+,e

55:

144:

51:'0:

%4:

121:

4':%5:

10':

'5:$2:

'$:

+%$: +3$:+4$:

+3%:

+'2:+$&:

+112:

+144:

eal /DP /r)wth (:! eal /DP per capita ?r)wth (:! P n;ati)n (:!

Bu>?et Balance (: ) /DP! urrent -cc)unt (: ) /DP!


7/49

Preface

DomesticProduct

CountryStatistics

Trade and

Investments


Inde!


8/49 - esearch Partners May’2013 Ghana – An Economic Primer wwwarc+sc)m

R E S E

ARC H

'

/DP /r)wth )mparis)n

)rl> /hana Ni?eria Eambia S)uth -rica -l?eria .?pt

35:

144:

54: &&:

31:24:

1':

31:

'2:

51: &%:

2&: 2&:20:

+0&:

+&2:

+03: +01: +0%:

02: 02:

2011 2012 /r)wth

Countries are arranged in the order of decreasing growth rate

-nnual percenta?e ?r)wth rate ) /DP at market prices base> )n c)nstant l)cal currenc -??re?ates arebase> )n c)nstant 2000 8S9



R E S E

ARC H

$

/DP )mp)nents

)rl> S)uth -rica Ni?eria .?pt -l?eria /hana Eambia

&: 2:

31:

1%:$:

2%:20:

30:32:

43:

35:

&1: 25: 34:

&4: &%:

2&:

4':

30:

4': 4&:

Serice n>ustr -?riculture



R E S E

ARC H

10

/DP /r)wth Fren>

10

2010 2011 2012 2013e 2014p 201%p 201&p 2015p

32 3' 40 43

4$ %4 %$ &%&%

5& '3

$1 100 10$

11$131

/DP /DP + PPP

/r)ss D)mestic Pr)>uct (8S9bn!

/DP /r)wth ate

2010 2011 2012 2013e 2014p 201%p 201&p 2015p

'0:

144:

'2: 5': '2: 5%: 5%: 53:

2%':

2'5:

245:230:

241:

1'1:1&$: 1&&:

/DP /r)wth at )nstant Prices /DP /r)wth at urrent Prices



R E S E

ARC H/DP per apita

11

2010 2011 2012 2013e 2014p 201%p 201&p 2015p

1,3%'1,%'0 1,&10 1,&&& 1,'%&

1,$$32,131

2,2'&

2010 2011 2012 2013e 2014p 201%p 201&p 2015p

%:

12:

%: %: %: %: %: %:

23:

2&:

22:20:

21:

1%:14: 14:

/DP per apita /r)wth at )nstant Prices /DP per apita /r)wth at urrent Prices

/DP Per apita(8S9!

/DP Per apita /r)wth ate



R E S E

ARC H

12

/DP b Sect)rs

-?riculture, A)restr an> Aishin

Cinin? an> 6uarrin?

Canuacturin?

.lectricit, ?as an> water

)nstructi)n

h)lesale an> retail tra>e, h)tels an> restaurants

Fransp)rt, st)ra?e an> c)mmunicati)n

Ainance, real estate an> business serices

Public a>ministrati)n, e>ucati)n, health

Gther serices

304:

2':

102:

21:

%5:

114:

1%$:

5':

4':

'':

2$$:

1':

&':

1%:

'&:

123:

12%:

$5:

50:

$$:

200&

2010

han?e in /DP b Sect)r (: )/DP!

)ntributi)n ) >iHerentsect)rs in the /DP ) /hanaan> h)w the c)ntributi)n has

chan?e> r)m 200& t) 2010



R E S E

ARC H

13

/DP Structure

2%:

25:

4':

-?riculture n>ustr Serices

/DP c)mp)siti)n b sect)r (2012est!

Maor A$riculturalProducts

)c)a,

ice,assaa(mani)c!,

Peanuts,)rn,

Shea nuts,Bananas, Fimber

Cinin?,

umberin?,i?ht Canuacturin?,-luminum smeltin?,

A))> pr)cessin?,ement,

Small c)mmercial shipbuil>in?

Maor Industries

Caj)r Pr)>ucts an>n>ustries

/DP (2012 est!" 8S94012bn


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Preface

DomesticProduct

CountryStatistics

Trade and

Investments


Inde!



R E S E

ARC H

1%

Dem)?raphics

51:

1':

%:1:%:

hristian Cuslim Fra>iti)nal Gther N)ne

eli?i)n Distributi)n (2010ensus!

0+14 1%+24 2%+%4 %%+&4 &%#

3'5:

1'':

335:

45: 41:

P)pulati)n Distributi)n (IulJ2013est!

P)pulati)n /r)wth ate (2013est!

).)-

iterac ate (2010 census!

5': &%:

Gerall Cale Aemale

205

203

212

Cai>en -?e (ears! (2013 est!



R E S E

ARC HKuman Deel)pment n>e< + )mparis)n with Peers

1&

braLil russia in>ia china s)uth arica

5$

%5

13%

$1

11'

Kuman Deel)pment n>e< (anks!

Fhe KD is a c)mp)site ) seeral in>icat)rs, which measure a c)untrMs achieements in three main arenas )human >eel)pment" l)n?eit, e>ucati)n, an> ec)n)mic stan>ar> ) liin? Fhe l)wer rank in>icates betterhuman c)n>iti)ns

/hana 2013 )untr eiew, wwwc)untrwatchc)m

15



R E S E

ARC H)rrupti)n n>e< – )mparis)n with Peers

15

)rrupti)n Percepti)ns n>e< is a c)mp)site in>e< which ranks c)untries in terms ) the >e?ree t) whichc)rrupti)n is perceie> t) ee< in>icates the iews ) nati)nal an>internati)nal business pe)ple an> analsts ab)ut the leels ) c)rrupti)n in each c)untr Fhe hi?hest (an>best! leel ) transparenc is in>icate> b the number, 10 Fhe l)wer (an> w)rse! leels ) transparenc arein>icate> b l)wer numbers

S)uth -rica /hana Eambia .?pt -l?eria Ni?eria

45

3$

302' 2'

2%

)rrupti)n n>e<


1'



R E S E

ARC HP)litical isk n>e< – )mparis)n with Peers

1'

braLil russia in>ia china s)uth arica

510

%30

&$0 500 &$0

P)litical isk n>e<

Fhe P)litical isk n>e< is calculate> base> )n arie> criteria inclu>in? the )ll)win?" p)litical stabilit, p)liticalrepresentati)n, >em)cratic acc)untabilit, ree>)m ) e crime, risk ) c)n;ict, human>eel)pment, jurispru>ence an> re?ulat)r transparenc, ec)n)mic risk, an> c)rrupti)n - sc)re ) 0 marksthe hi?hest p)litical risk, while a sc)re ) 10 marks the l)west p)litical risk


1$



R E S E

ARC H

1$

200% 200& 2005 200' 200$ 201000

100

200

300

400

%00

&00

500

'00

$00

1000

+100:

00:

100:

200:

300:

400:

%00:

&00:

500:

'00:

414

504

'3''51 '&2 '&%502:

1'$:

40:+10: 04:

F)talnumber ) crimes F)tal crime ?r)wth rate

200% 200& 2005 200' 200$ 2010

1&,&

2%,&

33,2 32,' 32,4 31,&

12,%

1$,222,5

24,%22,5 22,5

3,$&,4 &,$ 5,0

',% ',&

0,% 0,' 0,3 0,4 0,% 0,4

-ssault Stealin? Arau> )bberB

rime tren>s in /hana )er 200&+2010 (-ll @?ures inO000s!

22',&%

3t)tal number )

crimesrep)rte> in

2012

&$:>ecline in rapecases in 2012c)mpare> t)

2011

12$:

ncrease in>e@lement

cases in 2012c)mpare> t)

2011

1:

>ecline in crimecases in 2012c)mpare> t)

2011

rime in /hana

20


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R E S E

ARC HP)pulati)n =s .mpl)ment Fren>s

20

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 200% 200& 2005 200' 200$ 2010 2011

&50:

&&0: &&0:

&50:

&&':

&5%:

&&4: &&4:&&%:

&&&:

&&':&&5:

.mpl)ment t) P)pulati)n ati), t)tal(:!

.mpl)ment t) p)pulati)n rati) is the pr)p)rti)n ) a c)untrMs p)pulati)n that is empl)e> -?es 1% an> )l>er

are ?enerall c)nsi>ere> the w)rkin?+a?e p)pulati)n

21


21/49


R E S E

ARC Hn;ati)n Fren>s

21

40$0$ 40$40 40$&$ 41000 41030 410&1 410$1 41122 411%3 411'3 41214 41244 4125% 4130& 41334 413&%

'&: '5: '&:'':

$1:$3: $4:

$%: $%: $4:$2: $3:

'': '':

100:

104:

n;ati)n Fren> (: chan?e in P!

4%:

11:':

':

5:&:

4:

3:

3: 2: 2: 0:

A))> an> n)n+alc)h)lic beera?es

l)thin? an> ))twear

K)tels, a an> estaurants

Aurnishin? an> K)useh)l e6uipment

8tilities

Fransp)rt

Kealth

ecreati)n an> ulture

Ciscellane)us /))>s an> Serices

-lc)h)lic Beera?es, F)bacc) an> Narc)tics

.>uctai)n

.ner?

)mp)siti)n ) P


22/49

Preface

DomesticProduct

CountryStatistics

Trade and

Investments


Inde!

23


23/49


R E S E

ARC HA)rei?n nestment n>e< – )mparis)n with Peers

23

A)rei?n nestment n>e< is base> )n a ?ien c)untrMs ec)n)mic stabilit, ec)n)mic risk, business an>inestment climate - sc)re ) 0 marks the l)west leel ) )rei?n inestment iabilit, while a sc)re ) 10marks the hi?hest leel ) )rei?n inestment iabilit, acc)r>in? t) this pr)prietar in>e<

S)uth -rica Ni?eria /hana .?pt -l?eria Eambia

'0

&0%%

%0 %0 %0

A)rei?n nestment n>e<


24


24/49


R E S E

ARC H

24

AD -ttractieness ) /hanaQ

ha>, iberia, Ca>a?ascar,Ni?er

-lbania, Bahamas, )n?),eban)n,

C)Lambi6ue, Eambia&"ana, Ni?eria,

-rmenia

Calta,

Namibia, Sechelles,Su>an, FanLania

.?pt

-nti?ua an> Barbu>a,entral -rican epublic,Djib)uti, D)minica, Aiji,

/rena>a,

Cali

Barba>)s, B)tswana,amer))n,

Cauritius, 8?an>a,Eimbabwe

-l?eria

Kaiti, 7iribati, es)th),wan>a,

Sam)a, Sierra e)ne,SwaLilan>, F)?), F)n?a

-n?)la, .l Sala>)r,.thi)pia,

7ena, Sene?al

AD P)tential n>e<

A D 3 - t t r a c t i ) n

3 n > e

<

-b)e .


25/49


R E S E

ARC H

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 200% 200& 2005 200' 200$ 2010 2011 +

%00

1,000

1,%00

2,000

2,%00

3,000

3,%00

00:

10:

20:

30:

40:

%0:

&0:

50:

'0:

$0:

100:

1&&'$ %$

135 13$ 14%

&3&

'%%

1,212

1,&5'

2,%25

3,222

33:

15:

10:

1':1&:

14:

31:3%:

42:

&%:

5$:'2:

AD in /hana

2%

Rears 200$ t) 2011 has seen si?ni@cantincrease in AD t) /DP rati) with minin?sect)r receiin? m)re than 8S9 2 bn AD

AD tren>s in /hana (8S9 mn!

2&


26/49


R E S E

ARC Heseres ) A)re<

2&

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 200% 200& 2005 200' 200$ 2010 2011

0,31 0,3'

0,&4

1,45

1,5% 1,$

2,25 2,222,01

3,&$

%,1&

%,$1

Gwin? t) tremen>)us in;)w ) AD in the last threeears the )re< reseres ) /hana hae ?)ne upsi?ni@cantl

A)rei?n .


27/49


R E S E

ARC H

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 200% 200& 2005 200' 200$ 2010 2011 2012

12%,4:

103,2:

'',0: '3,$:

%',2:4',&:

2&,2: 31,%: 33,&: 3&,2:

4&,0: 43,4: 44,$:

Debt

25

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 200% 200& 2005 200' 200$ 2010 2011 2012

&2 %% %4&4

%2 %2 %3

5'$& $4

14'

1501'0

/r)ss /)ernment Debt (8S9bn!

Debt as : )/DP

2'


28/49


R E S E

ARC HSt)ck n>e< Per)rmance

2'

41030 410&1 410$1 41122 411%3 411'3 41214 41244 4125% 4130& 41334 413&%

1,023 1,04% 1,031 1,02& 1,044

1,131 1,1331,200

1,2'1

1,4'2

1,5351,'01

N)te" Data here represents st)ck leels at the en> ) respectie m)nths

R+)+R return )r/S. is 513:at the en> )

-PJ13

/S. (/hana St)ck .es

Be)re 2011 in>e< was calle> /S. all share in>e< an> was chan?e> t)/S.S in 2011 with base >ate an> alue bein? 31 Dec 2010 an> 1000respectiel

2$


29/49


R E S E

ARC H

$

St)ck n>e< Per)rmance

410&1 410$1 41122 411%3 411'3 41214 41244 4125% 4130& 41334 413&%

2,2:

+1,4:

+0,%:

1,':

',3:

0,2:

%,':

&,':

1%,5:

15,2:

3,5:

/S. m)nthlreturns

30


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R E S E

ARC H Fra>e Balance

2003 2004 200% 200& 2005 200' 200$ 2010 2011 2012

2,%&3 2,532 2,'013,534

4,223

%,2&'%,'3'

5,$%$

12,55313,%00

3,231

4,4$3%,25$

&,%23

',051

$,53%

',04&

10,$22

1%,503

15,500

+&&'

+1,5&1+2,45' +2,5'$

+3,'4'+4,4&5

+2,20'+2,$&3 +2,$30

+4,200

.e (in 8S9 Cn!

31


31/49


R E S E

ARC HFra>e Balance

2003 2004 200% 200& 2005 200' 200$ 2010 2011 2012

+11:

+2%:

+%1:

+&%:

+14&:

+10':

+40:

+'2:

+11&:

+'0:

urrent -cc)unt t) /DP rati) (in :!

32


32/49


R E S E

ARC H.s 8S talB 87 n>ia

1$,1:

10,2:

',&:',1:

4,5:4,2:

hina Ni?eria 8S n>ia Netherlan>s 87

20,4:

12,4:

5,':

%,&:

%,1: 4,2:

F)p .


33/49


R E S E

ARC HD)in? Business in /hanaankin? ) /hana )n ease ) >)in?

Business

ankin? ) /hana )n ease ) per)rmin? >iHerent actiities in business ankin? is )ut ) 1'3 c)untries, the

lesser the alue the better

Startin? a Business

Dealin? with )nstructi)n Permits

e?isterin? Pr)pert

/ettin? re>it

Pr)tectin? nest)rs

Pain? Fain? -cr)ss B)r>ers

.n)rcin? )ntracts

es)lin? ns)lenc

/ettin? .lectricit

112 1&2

4%

23

4$

'$$$

4'

114

&3

104

1&0

35

3'4&

'0$'

4511%

&&

2013e

2012

)he g!o*a! Com%etiti#eness $e%ort& 2012+13& or!d Economic ,oru

R E S E34


34/49


R E S E

ARC HD)in? Business = )mpetitieness

S)uth -rica /hana Eambia .?pt Ni?eria -l?eria

3$&4

$4 10$131

1%2

S)uth -rica .?pt /hana -l?eria Eambia Ni?eria

&0'5 $0 $2 $4

120

1-most *usiness+friend!y regu!ations

.ase ) D)in? Businessankin?

nrastructure Tualitankin?

)he g!o*a! Com%etiti#eness $e%ort& 2012+13& or!d Economic ,oru


35/49

R E S E3&


36/49


R E S E

ARC H7e Sect)rs an> Gpp)rtunities

A$riculture

Caj)r a?ricultural pr)>ucts are )c)a, ice,assaa(mani)c!, Peanuts, Shea nuts an> )rn

/hana is sec)n> lar?est pr)>ucer ) c)c)a in thew)rl> ater )r )ast, it was the sec)n> lar?est)rei?n e till2012

-?ricultural actiities c)nstitute ar)un> 30: ) the

t)tal /DP ) /hana

Minin$

Caj)r mine> c)mm)>ities inclu>e /)l>, Diam)n>,Bau Can?anese

Cinin? an> 6uarrin? c)ntribute ar)un> %: )/hanaJs /DP

/hana is sec)n> lar?est pr)>ucer ) ?)l> in -rica)nl behin> S)uth -rica

/)l> pr)>ucti)n has ?r)wn alm)st & times r)m

%2 mn )unces in 1$$0 t) 2$2 mn )unces in2011

Petroleum and &as

/hana is ranke> 4% in terms ) )il reseres in thew)rl>, it ha> an estimate> &&0 mn barrels ) )ilreseres in 2012

Gil an> ?as eerwa an>?)ernment claim that reseres ) ar)un> % bnbarrels will s))n be )un>

n 2012, )il replace> c)c)a as sec)n> lar?est )re<?enerat)r

Te!tile

-n imp)rtant s)urce ) )rei?n n 200$ e


37/49


R E S E

ARC H

Fra>iti)nall a?riculture has c)nstitute> ar)un> )ne+thir> ) the /DP ) the c)untr, but in the resentears ?r)wth rate ) a?riculture pales in c)ntrast withnewer sect)rs like manuacturin?, inrastructure,st)ra?e an> telec)mmunicati)n

Suppl an> installati)n ) c)l> chain e6uipment an>

c)l> ans an> )ther serices in transp)rt an>packa?in? hae helpe> /hana in increasin? ita?ricultural eustrial cr)ps are palm )il, c)tt)n, rubber,su?ar cane, t)bacc), an> kena, but n)ne ) them arec)nsi>ere> ) an strate?ic ec)n)mic imp)rtance bthe ?)ernment

-?riculture Cinin?Petr)leum an>

/as Fe ba?riculture>irectl )rin>irectl

1mn mtc)c)a waspr)>uce> in 2011,

hi?hest eer inhist)r

$0:

) arm h)l>in?sin /hana areless than 2hectares

5:) the /DP in2011 was r)ma?riculture an>

relate>actiities

A)un>e> in 1$45, /hana )c)a B)ar> (c)c)b)>!c)ntr)ls the price ) the c)c)a pr)>uce> in /hana

ts main )bjectie is t) c)ntr)l price s) that

armers are pr)tecte> r)m the price ;uctuati)nsan> euce ) /hana is c)ntr)lle> b c)c)b)>

R E S E3'


38/49


R E S E

ARC H

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 200% 200& 2005 200' 200$ 2010

21%2%3

2'023$ 242 235 2%0

1'%

302

3$1

4$2

Pr)>ucti)n ) ice (pa>>! (M000 mt!

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 200% 200& 2005 200' 200$ 2010 2011 2012

43&&03'$&0

340&0

4$&'0

53&$0

%$$30

540%0

&14%0&'0'0 510&0

$03&0

1,024%0

'&440

Pr)>ucti)n ) )c)a (M000 mt!


/as Fe


39/49


R E S E

ARC H

/)l> has been the m)st imp)rtant e Pr)>ucti)n in -rica (2011!

(F)nnes!

R E S E40


40/49


R E S E

ARC H

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 200% 200& 2005 200' 200$ 2010 2011 201

23 22 21 22

1'22 22 2%

2&2$ 30

3&

42/)l> Pr)>ucti)n Fren> (mn )unces!

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 200% 200& 2005 200' 200$ 2010 2011

231'25%%

3135 3304

%%&4

&&2

5$$%

&502

5&%3 5&23 550 5'0

nestment in Cinin? n>ustr (8S9 mn!


/as Fe


41/49


R E S E

ARC H

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 200% 200& 2005 200' 200$ 2010 2011 2012

%03'

51%4&452

4$45 4$'1

52&&

''%'

54'2&$3$

4$04 %122

410$

&&2

Sales Fren> ) Bau


42/49


R E S E

ARC H2

2011 2012 2013(.!0

100

200

300

400

%00

&00

444

%41%'1

21': 54:

Gil eenues Gil eenue /r)wth

8S93bn w)rth ) e

Gil eenues an> /r)wth tren> Caj)r Plaers ) Petr)leum an> /as sect)r

Ghana (ationa!Petro!eum Cor%oration


/as Fea ise ?as

pr)>ucti)n b Dec2014, current leelis &0 mncu=t=>a

R E S E43

43


43/49


R E S E

ARC H3

Aanc prints,

wa< prints, jaaprints, calic)sm)ck, la>ies

>resses, menJswear, etc aremain ee+in+/hanatees

.8 c)untries,8S- an>.G-S

)w c)st imp)rts,pirate> >esi?nsan> hi?h c)st )capital are the

main challen?esace> b this

sect)r

n>i?en)us

teuctslike 7ente,->inkra (han>+

prints! sm)ck )rAu?u are als)

e

Caj)r Plaers ) Feii>e> int) the )ll)win?>iHerent ?r)ups"

. rea>ma>e ?arments

Fra>iti)nal te wa< prints

ust)m+ma>e ?arments

ea>+t)+wear ?arments )r the >)mesticmarket

n>ustr Se?mentati)n

Ghana )e.ti!e PrintingCom%any /imited

Aosom*o )e.ti!e

/imited

/hana Fe

Printe< imite> an> /l)bal/arments U Fe


/as Fe


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Fhank R)uCA. Tapan [email protected]

+91 11 6542 2128

Manoj [email protected]

+91 11 4562 2128

Copyright © by ARC Research Partners

No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a

retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any

means — electronic, mechanical, photocopying,

Ashwani [email protected]

+91 11 4562 2128

Disclaimer

he information contained herein has been obtained form various public sources.

he above information is believed to be correct but is not necessarily complete

and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. ARC Research Partners is not responsible

for any error or any decision ta!en by the reader based on this information. ARC

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South Africa 2 - An Economic Primer

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