Sostenibilidad y Vulnerabilidad De La Deuda Pública: La Experiencia Uruguaya
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Sostenibilidad y Vulnerabilidad De La Deuda Pública: La Experiencia Uruguaya Isabel Rial Leonardo Vicente Enero 2004 Banco Central del Uruguay
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Banco Central del Uruguay. Sostenibilidad y Vulnerabilidad De La Deuda Pública: La Experiencia Uruguaya. Isabel Rial Leonardo Vicente Enero 2004. OBJETIVOS Y ESTRUCTURA. Desarrollo de un set de indicadores para evaluar sostenibilidad fiscal más allá del concepto tradicional de solvencia. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Sostenibilidad y Vulnerabilidad De La Deuda Pública: La Experiencia Uruguaya
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Sostenibilidad y Vulnerabilidad De La Deuda Pblica: La Experiencia Uruguaya Isabel Rial Leonardo VicenteEnero 2004Banco Central del Uruguay
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OBJETIVOS Y ESTRUCTURADesarrollo de un set de indicadores para evaluar sostenibilidad fiscal ms all del concepto tradicional de solvencia.Alta volatilidad macro cuantificacin de la vulnerabilidad de la deuda a diversos cambios en el entorno.Anlisis histrico 1988 2002.Simulaciones de largo plazo 2003 2015.
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I. MARCO CONCEPTUAL: DEFINICIONESSolvencia: si el valor descontado de los supervit primarios, presente y futuros, es mayor o igual al stock inicial de endeudamiento.Sostenibilidad: si satisface la condicin de solvencia sin necesidad de un ajuste significativo en la trayectoria planeada de ingresos y egresos futuros, dado el costo de financiamiento en el mercado.Liquidez: si los activos lquidos y el financiamiento disponible son suficientes para enfrentar los vencimientos de los pasivos.Vulnerabilidad: riesgo de que se violen las condiciones de liquidez y/o solvencia ante cambios en las variables macroeconmicas relevantes.
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I. MARCO CONCEPTUAL: INDICADORES Coeficiente deuda-PIB: d = D/YGap primario k. Objetivo: mantener d cte. Brecha tributaria mediano plazo BTLimitaciones de estos indicadores:Se concentran solamente en el nivel de dSon independientes de los valores iniciales.
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EXTENSIONES: ESTRUCTURA DE D/Y VULNERABILIDADGap primario por moneda:Gap primario por tasa de inters:
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Brecha de financiamiento: necesidades y fuentes.
NecesidadesResultado fiscalAmortizaciones: calendario + roll over.FuentesPrstamosTtulos Pblicos MonetizacinVenta de activosAjuste primario.Posibilidades en cada momento cierre de la brecha?Importancia de la estructura por plazo.
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Vulnerabilidad de D/Y
Escenarios:Benchmark (B)4 shocks: , 2 (i)Variables relevantes: PIB, (e-p), i*
Comparacin: Importancia de los shocks y la estructura.
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II. LA EVOLUCIN RECIENTE1988-1990: perodo de reestructuras1991-1998: el dinamismo regional1999-2001: el rpido deterioro2002: la materializacin de los riesgos latentes
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DINMICA D/Y: DETERMINANTES(-) reduce D/Y, (+) aumenta D/Y
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INDICADORESGap primario>5% y creciente desde 1999!Gap tributario similar Necesidad de correcciones.La condicin de solvencia se violara ex-ante en un horizonte tan cercano como el ao 2006! t = 12/2002
Grfico1
306.2037135724
373.7762946165
117.284936855
261.6146015306
774.0067600885
955.23148246
880.7764936215
942.6456228577
771.0448588106
750.4632833502
971.3993009689
834.8897810192
645.8343465537
Brecha de Financiamiento ( - acumula RIN, + desacumula RIN)
Millones de dlares
BRECHA DE FINANCIAMIENTO
G1
G1
0.56975007430.3471473278
0.56234078790.3769791307
0.55550118780.3797797783
0.42279349430.2961272262
0.36150843130.2559032052
0.32337359860.2137997452
0.32737974980.2201687477
0.3133091390.2096311613
0.29876046570.1953278978
0.30857017950.2035994726
0.33119684690.2048488247
0.40767450630.267430983
0.45491380990.3001788253
0.54688469370.359449135
0.92409091080.7665877455
Deuda Bruta
Deuda Neta
1. DEUDA PBLICA BRUTA y NETA / PIB, 1988-2002
G2
0.3471473278
0.3769791307
0.3797797783
0.2961272262
0.2559032052
0.2137997452
0.2201687477
0.2096311613
0.1953278978
0.2035994726
0.2048488247
0.267430983
0.3001788253
0.359449135
0.7665877455
Deuda Neta
DEUDA PBLICA NETA / PIB, 1988-2002
G3
G3
-0.0000870162
0.0161192365
0.0029734837
0.0353880849
0.0793158841
0.0265754611
0.0728134266
-0.0144759898
0.0557795777
0.0504771444
0.045383264
-0.0284653755
-0.014412413
-0.0338520586
-0.1076894741
consolidado
VARIACIN REAL DEL PIB g
G4
0.62191066770.5857413862
0.80445503410.6845926998
1.12527253190.9339895295
1.01971550150.7239315145
0.6845586210.4993535796
0.54098019520.3043004252
0.44742187070.279508612
0.42245742910.2575274671
0.28344204390.255399534
0.19818573960.1844309575
0.10810416770.1086749386
0.05658693720.082886909
0.04763827060.0675655418
0.0436522270.1004766114
0.13967306260.5959903023
inflacin
devaluacin
INFLACIN Y DEVALUACIN NOMINAL p, e
G4b
-0.0223004154
-0.0664257807
-0.0900039875
-0.1464483423
-0.1099427702
-0.1535904035
-0.1160085129
-0.1159472042
-0.0218494555
-0.0114796743
0.0005150877
0.0248914414
0.0190211371
0.0544476243
0.4003931081
DEVALUACIN REAL e - p
G5
0.0427872463
0.0297568365
0.0105709244
0.0188006448
0.0187223386
0.0172429537
0.0127868205
0.0175519473
0.0085808722
0.0099692326
0.0110436021
0.001140836
-0.0089143939
-0.00032477
0.0005497414
SEIGNORAGE / PIB m
G6
0.0811
0.0927
0.0832
0.0608
0.039
0.0341
0.0507
0.0609
0.0557
0.05805
0.0551333333
0.05505
0.0664916667
0.0373083333
0.0189
Libor
TASA DE INTERS LIBOR 6 MESES (US$) i*
G7
0.0048817993
-0.0043469295
0.0295166618
0.0369285433
0.038203802
0.0091298369
-0.0069174177
0.0098101392
0.0070503868
0.0082973724
0.0135343217
-0.017912069
-0.0156568575
-0.0137749538
0.004209611
(+) supervit, (-) dficit
RESULTADO PRIMARIO / PIB s
G8
G8
0.0518170812
0.0227495915
0.0003775133
-0.0888157885
-0.0472984093
-0.1020798085
-0.063914262
-0.049796799
0.0439237297
0.0607028683
0.0724618764
inflacin
TASA DE INTERS REAL PROMEDIO r
G4.1
0.0519040975
0.0066303551
-0.0025959704
-0.1242038734
-0.1266142933
-0.1286552696
-0.1367276886
-0.0353208092
-0.011855848
0.0102257239
0.0270786124
inflacin
LMITES A LA DINMICA DE D/Y: r-g
G4.2
19881989199019911992199319941995199619971998
Deuda Bruta SPG por instrumento100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Titulos Pblicos28%30%31%37%41%41%40%40%40%44%44%
Prstamos45%42%29%27%22%24%29%29%29%28%27%
Depsitos netos13%15%17%13%10%10%10%11%10%8%9%
Resto15%13%23%23%27%25%21%21%20%20%19%
Resultado fiscal1.2%
Pas. Mon.0.7%
Ttulos Pblicos1.6%
Prstamos0.2%
Depsitos netos-0.0%
RIN-1.3%
Otros0.0%
Otros0.0%
-1.3%
Depsitos netos-0.0%
Prstamos0.2%
Ttulos Pblicos1.6%
Pas. Mon.0.7%
Resultado fiscal1.2%
Corresponde a RIN. No le puse leyenda pues se la insert a piacere en el grfico.
Outstanding2004 to
as ofFinal
Dec. 31,1998 (1)199920002001200220032004Maturity
CALENDARIO DE AMORTIZACIONES5,5487595494305267633542,154
Fuente: I:GROUP\DEUDA5\OFFERING\JAPON\JAP0699.wb1.
G4.2
0
0
0
0
c) ESTRUCTURA DEUDA BRUTA 1990
Depsitos 13%
G4.3
0
0
0
0
d) ESTRUCTURA DEUDA BRUTA 1998
Depsitos 9%
G4.4
0
0
0
0
0
0
RIN
a) FUENTES DE FINANCIAMIENTO promedio 1995-1998 (% PIB)
G4.5
0
0
0
0
0
0
b) CALENDARIO AMORTIZACIONES en 1998, mill. US$
G4.6
valores promedios
19951996199719981999200020012002total1995-19981999-2001
Financiamiento1.5%1.4%1.4%0.9%4.0%4.1%4.3%4.0%2.7%1.2%4.1%
Pasivos monetarios1.1%1.1%0.7%0.3%0.1%0.5%-0.1%0.9%0.6%0.7%0.1%
Base monetaria restringida 1/1.0%0.9%0.7%0.5%0.3%-0.2%-0.0%0.0%
Encajes no rem. BROU (deducido Gobierno Central y BPS)-0.2%-0.2%-0.4%0.3%-0.3%0.6%-0.1%-0.1%
Encajes rem. BROU, Banca y BHU0.2%0.3%0.1%-0.1%0.1%-0.2%0.0%0.0%
Instrumentos de liquidez 2/-0.0%0.2%0.4%-0.4%-0.0%0.1%0.0%1.0%
Endeudamiento1.6%0.9%2.3%2.1%4.1%4.6%6.8%1.6%3.0%1.8%5.1%
Ttulos Pblicos1.7%1.0%1.9%1.9%1.5%3.4%4.6%-4.3%1.5%1.6%3.2%
de los cuales: Bonos Brady-0.0%0.1%-0.0%-0.2%-0.7%-0.2%-0.9%-0.2%-0.3%-0.1%-0.6%
Prstamos externos-0.1%-0.2%0.3%0.5%1.2%0.6%0.6%14.4%2.1%0.2%0.8%
Sector financiero 3/0.0%0.2%0.1%-0.4%1.4%0.6%1.6%-8.5%-0.6%-0.0%1.2%
RIN-1.2%-0.8%-1.6%-1.6%-0.1%-0.8%-2.0%15.2%0.9%-1.3%-1.0%
Otros0.1%0.1%-0.1%0.1%-0.1%-0.1%-0.4%-13.6%-1.7%0.0%-0.2%
(+) fuente ( - ) uso
G4.7,8
G4.7,8
0.0000333985-0.0138824480.046139602-0.0427872463-0.0048817993
-0.0050088511-0.03724572090.0500016859-0.02975683650.0043469295
-0.0007844424-0.05046286270.0506745245-0.0105709244-0.0295166618
-0.009400451-0.07857172520.0309207268-0.0188006448-0.0369285433
-0.0184439429-0.04306717680.0245392741-0.0187223386-0.038203802
-0.0060731122-0.05408684310.0181394502-0.0172429537-0.0091298369
-0.0151634037-0.03496795370.015702549-0.01278682050.0069174177
0.0033805985-0.03851632870.0219744044-0.0105247544-0.0098101392
-0.0128972989-0.00648396150.0195186007-0.0110805082-0.0070503868
-0.0119813885-0.00326487150.0205290426-0.0074629125-0.0082973724
-0.01208908830.00015204060.0212368365-0.0028506781-0.0135343217
g
e-p
r
m
s
5. DINMICA DEUDA / PIB: COMPONENTES 1988-1998
series hist.
series hist.
-0.0280380426
-0.0103335109
0.0247364479
-0.0323508525
-0.0145046231
-0.0124339513
% PBI
COMPONENTES DEUDA MARGINAL 1991-1998
C1
0.0718959489
0.0100490792
0.0255340855
0.0136446269
0.0157812934
-0.0013666119
% PBI
COMPONENTES DEUDA MARGINAL 1999-2001
C2
0.377206217
0.0579125549
0.0446379148
0.2415448369
-0.004209611
-0.0088628003
% PBI
COMPONENTES DEUDA MARGINAL 2002
C3
-0.0223214487
-0.001919965
0.0524875876
-0.0338636772
-0.0100171772
-0.0277050024
% PBI
COMPONENTES DEUDA MARGINAL 1988-1990
C4
C4
-0.0042630831
0.0165714691
-0.0005740572
-0.0756700785
-0.0683308994
-0.0607942332
-0.0470376329
-0.0215937868
0.0003216606
0.0111622178
0.0130625204
0.045095482
0.0303422833
0.0494916923
0.3139292644
simple
GAP TRIBUTARIO DE MeP/ PIB t*-t
-0.0143301983
-0.0132417305
-0.0354827737
-0.1061934387
-0.0886800408
-0.0645321512
-0.0369441227
-0.0309740064
-0.0164444985
-0.0091908174
-0.0061328434
0.0565374387
0.0497832961
0.0846066844
0.3310228954
simple
GAP PRIMARIO / PIB s*-s
306.2037135724
373.7762946165
117.284936855
261.6146015306
774.0067600885
955.23148246
880.7764936215
942.6456228577
771.0448588106
750.4632833502
971.3993009689
834.8897810192
645.8343465537
Brecha de Financiamiento ( - acumula RIN, + desacumula RIN)
Millones de dlares
BRECHA DE FINANCIAMIENTO
1188.7702742435
1896.8599961296
1307.5642497328
574.7746466175
-285.8535133628
Stock de Activos
Millones de dlares
STOCK DE ACTIVOS
0.40767450630.267430983
0.45491380990.3001788253
0.54688469370.359449135
0.92409091080.7665877455
1.1011853940.9359182254
1.06519273720.9029953368
1.0314597880.8693287144
0.97647543790.8120811242
0.94201286550.7746128965
0.90797499820.7369869003
0.87424070030.6991207496
0.84028700490.6606142586
0.8056683460.6211608249
0.77079557550.580869746
0.73515672740.5394247098
0.69882880620.4967360292
0.6613207230.4525186968
Deuda Bruta
Deuda Neta
1. DEUDA PBLICA BRUTA y NETA / PIB, 1999-2015
0.045095482
0.0303422833
0.0494916923
0.3139292644
0.1708157574
-0.0454231641
-0.0361353452
-0.0560911767
-0.0356819836
-0.0355437362
-0.0356521671
-0.0358948115
-0.0366710779
-0.0369748766
-0.0378390959
-0.0385752823
-0.0398870679
simple
GAP TRIBUTARIO DE MeP/ PIB t*-t
0.0565374387
0.0497832961
0.0846066844
0.3310228954
0.1770944832
-0.0359926568
-0.0337329492
-0.0549843501
-0.0344625724
-0.0340378673
-0.0337342979
-0.0339536955
-0.0346186589
-0.0348727705
-0.0356388481
-0.0363279211
-0.0375080832
simple
GAP PRIMARIO / PIB s*-s
0.00918416320.00815234950.0199477955-0.00055716840.017912069
0.00569041150.00755891810.0204413008-0.00452542880.0156568575
0.0152726630.02522261310.02549773120.00098276140.0137749538
0.05791255490.24154483690.0448738921-0.0088628003-0.004209611
0.02532267060.12513611410.053039843-0.0090554423-0.0173487022
-0.0373457587-0.01370331180.0467300396-0.0090554423-0.0226181837
-0.0316515734-0.01296145920.0503534064-0.0090554423-0.0304178808
-0.0237335432-0.03644980310.0500469482-0.0090554423-0.0357925097
-0.0231227904-0.01775590670.0519604266-0.0090554423-0.0364888597
-0.0223067219-0.01712925060.0520758369-0.0090554423-0.0376222893
-0.0215007104-0.01651031730.0519340547-0.0090554423-0.0386018826
-0.0207018873-0.0158969040.0513662682-0.0090554423-0.0396657301
-0.0198978689-0.01527950120.0503428213-0.0090554423-0.0407286678
-0.0190781043-0.0146500070.049768256-0.0090554423-0.041857473
-0.0182523224-0.0140158920.0486686705-0.0090554423-0.042983862
-0.0174083999-0.0133678470.047676855-0.0090554423-0.0441730869
-0.0165481602-0.01270727210.0461611523-0.0090554423-0.045358361
g
e-p
r
m
s
3. DINMICA DEUDA / PIB: COMPONENTES 1999-2015
0.00918416320.00815234950.0199477955
0.00569041150.00755891810.0204413008
0.0152726630.02522261310.0254977312
0.05791255490.24154483690.0448738921
0.02532267060.12513611410.053039843
-0.0373457587-0.01370331180.0467300396
-0.0316515734-0.01296145920.0503534064
-0.0237335432-0.03644980310.0500469482
-0.0231227904-0.01775590670.0519604266
-0.0223067219-0.01712925060.0520758369
-0.0215007104-0.01651031730.0519340547
-0.0207018873-0.0158969040.0513662682
-0.0198978689-0.01527950120.0503428213
-0.0190781043-0.0146500070.049768256
-0.0182523224-0.0140158920.0486686705
-0.0174083999-0.0133678470.047676855
-0.0165481602-0.01270727210.0461611523
g
e-p
r
3. DINMICA DEUDA/PIB: COMPONENTES MACRO 1999-2015
0.0199477955-0.00055716840.017912069
0.0204413008-0.00452542880.0156568575
0.02549773120.00098276140.0137749538
0.0448738921-0.0088628003-0.004209611
0.053039843-0.0090554423-0.0173487022
0.0467300396-0.0090554423-0.0226181837
0.0503534064-0.0090554423-0.0304178808
0.0500469482-0.0090554423-0.0357925097
0.0519604266-0.0090554423-0.0364888597
0.0520758369-0.0090554423-0.0376222893
0.0519340547-0.0090554423-0.0386018826
0.0513662682-0.0090554423-0.0396657301
0.0503428213-0.0090554423-0.0407286678
0.049768256-0.0090554423-0.041857473
0.0486686705-0.0090554423-0.042983862
0.047676855-0.0090554423-0.0441730869
0.0461611523-0.0090554423-0.045358361
r
m
s
3. DINMICA DEUDA/PIB: COMPONENTES FISCALES 1999-2015
-0.03975809440.0218460255-0.017912069
-0.04105939530.0254025378-0.0156568575
-0.0431286470.0293536932-0.0137749538
-0.04042830380.04463791480.004209611
-0.02886944150.04621814370.0173487022
-0.02411185590.04673003960.0226181837
-0.01993552570.05035340640.0304178808
-0.01425443850.05004694820.0357925097
-0.01547156690.05196042660.0364888597
-0.01445354750.05207583690.0376222893
-0.0133321720.05193405470.0386018826
-0.01170053810.05136626820.0396657301
-0.00961415360.05034282130.0407286678
-0.00791078310.0497682560.041857473
-0.00568480860.04866867050.042983862
-0.0035037680.0476768550.0441730869
-0.00080279130.04616115230.045358361
consolidado
intereses
primario
4. RESULTADO FISCAL / PIB, 1999-2015
-0.0359926568
-0.0373457587
0.0467300396
-0.0137033118
-0.0226181837
-0.0090554423
% PBI
COMPONENTES DEUDA MARGINAL 2004
-0.0337329492
-0.0316515734
0.0503534064
-0.0129614592
-0.0304178808
-0.0090554423
% PBI
COMPONENTES DEUDA MARGINAL 2015
-0.2627701878
-0.2462251704
0.6501245788
-0.0752913578
-0.4736574887
-0.1177207497
% PBI
COMPONENTES DEUDA MARGINAL 2002-2015
0.1770944832
0.0253226706
0.053039843
0.1251361141
-0.0173487022
-0.0090554423
% PBI
COMPONENTES DEUDA MARGINAL 2003
2. ALTERNATIVAS DE AJUSTE FISCAL
20032004200520062007200820092015
Benchmark1.7%2.3%3.0%3.6%3.6%3.8%3.9%4.5%
k=1%2.7%3.3%4.0%4.6%4.6%4.8%4.9%5.5%
k=2%3.7%4.3%5.0%5.6%5.6%5.8%5.9%6.5%
Memo: acuerdo FMI3.2%3.3%3.3%3.5%3.7%3.9%4.0%4.0%
0.40767450630.40767450630.40767450630.4076745063
0.45491380990.45491380990.45491380990.4549138099
0.54688469370.54688469370.54688469370.5468846937
0.92409091080.92409091080.92409091080.9240909108
1.1011853941.0911853941.0811853941.0865340962
1.06519273721.04512842591.02506424161.0400654419
1.0314597881.00108399940.97070833981.0033603623
0.97647543790.9361045250.89573374110.9491733833
0.94201286550.89078536410.83955799440.9136216646
0.90797499820.84557516640.78317546930.8775583173
0.87424070030.80032321990.72640587750.8416885857
0.84028700490.75449943110.66871199890.8065799714
0.8056683460.7076682760.60966835110.7710954914
0.77079557550.66014506040.54949469440.735291846
0.73515672740.61144042930.48772428430.6986740629
0.69882880620.56156124110.42429383350.6613042776
0.6613207230.51005858210.35879660330.6227101106
BENCHMARK
ajuste 1%
ajuste 2%
primario MEF
AJUSTE FISCAL Y DEUDA BRUTA
0.40767450630.40767450630.4076745063
0.45491380990.45491380990.4549138099
0.54688469370.54688469370.5468846937
0.92409091080.92409091080.9240909108
1.1011853941.0911853941.081185394
1.06519273721.04512842591.0250642416
1.0314597881.00108399940.9707083398
0.97647543790.9361045250.8957337411
0.94201286550.89078536410.8395579944
0.90797499820.84557516640.7831754693
0.87424070030.80032321990.7264058775
0.84028700490.75449943110.6687119989
0.8056683460.7076682760.6096683511
0.77079557550.66014506040.5494946944
0.73515672740.61144042930.4877242843
0.69882880620.56156124110.4242938335
0.6613207230.51005858210.3587966033
Benchmark
k=1%
k=2%
6. AJUSTE FISCAL Y DEUDA BRUTA
Deuda Pblica Bruta segn spreads (05/08/03)
19992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
fijos40.8%45.5%54.7%92.4%110.1%106.5%103.1%97.6%94.2%90.8%87.4%84.0%80.6%77.1%73.5%69.9%66.1%
variables - resultado fiscal40.8%45.5%54.7%92.4%112.7%115.1%111.3%105.9%101.5%97.3%93.1%89.8%86.5%83.1%79.6%76.1%72.4%
variables - Deuda Bruta40.8%45.5%54.7%92.4%113.2%116.5%113.6%109.1%105.7%102.4%99.2%96.9%94.6%92.3%90.0%87.6%85.1%
Tasa de inters promedio (US$) segn spreads (05/08/03)
19992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
fijos5.6%5.7%6.1%5.4%5.2%5.5%6.1%6.5%6.8%7.0%7.1%7.2%7.3%7.4%7.5%7.6%7.7%
variables - resultado fiscal5.6%5.7%6.1%5.4%5.4%5.8%6.3%6.7%6.9%7.1%7.2%7.3%7.3%7.4%7.5%7.6%7.6%
variables - Deuda Bruta5.6%5.7%6.1%5.4%6.0%6.8%7.4%7.8%8.0%8.2%8.3%8.4%8.4%8.6%8.6%8.7%8.7%
Intereses segn spreads (05/08/03)
19992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
fijos2.0%2.0%2.5%4.5%5.3%4.7%5.0%5.0%5.2%5.2%5.2%5.1%5.0%5.0%4.9%4.8%4.6%
variables - resultado fiscal2.0%2.0%2.5%4.5%5.6%5.3%5.6%5.5%5.6%5.6%5.5%5.5%5.4%5.3%5.2%5.1%5.0%
variables - Deuda Bruta2.0%2.0%2.5%4.5%6.2%6.1%6.5%6.6%6.7%6.7%6.7%6.8%6.7%6.8%6.7%6.7%6.6%
Deuda Pblica Bruta adicional (05/08/03)
19992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
variables - resultado fiscal2.6%8.6%8.2%8.3%7.3%6.5%5.6%5.8%5.9%6.0%6.1%6.2%6.3%
variables - Deuda Bruta3.1%9.9%10.5%11.5%11.5%11.6%11.7%12.9%14.0%15.2%16.5%17.7%19.0%
Intereses adicionales (05/08/03)
19992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
variables - resultado fiscal0.3%0.6%0.5%0.5%0.4%0.4%0.3%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.4%
variables - Deuda Bruta0.9%1.4%1.5%1.6%1.5%1.5%1.5%1.6%1.7%1.8%1.9%1.9%2.0%
&L&F&C&A&R&D
0.02553007470.0233
0.03354433570.0340614687
0.03387963750.0352152767
0.03441281470.0371274116
0.03371702630.0455307524
0.03073869280.0501422619
0.02951282150.0496072914
0.02843672040.0490901567
0.02697289370.0479748904
0.02728650710.0473873016
0.02702419740.0467942175
0.02673525630.0461927715
0.02631483860.0455680124
0.02577724690.0449072913
0.02533834510.0442236315
0.02476478570.0435023326
0.02420280420.042746347
A. dficit
B. deuda
7. SPREADS ENDGENOS (%)
0.40767450630.40767450630.4076745063
0.45491380990.45491380990.4549138099
0.54688469370.54688469370.5468846937
0.92409091080.92409091080.9240909108
1.1011853941.12712621961.1324058224
1.06519273721.15099770071.1646001212
1.0314597881.11335516611.136153727
0.97647543791.05898648051.0910999301
0.94201286551.01546063961.0573365597
0.90797499820.97275384211.0242011012
0.87424070030.93057873260.9915474275
0.84028700490.89792271850.9691008682
0.8056683460.86456820650.9461579889
0.77079557550.83088336350.9232268719
0.73515672740.79636462650.8997371932
0.69882880620.76107220990.8758212756
0.6613207230.72449499050.8509014933
Benchmark
A. dficit
B. deuda
8. DEUDA BRUTA SEGN SPREADS (% PIB)
0.05630973830.05630973830.0563097383
0.05675577080.05675577080.0567557708
0.06082795170.06082795170.0608279517
0.05404754250.05404754250.0540475425
0.05153269940.05443055920.0603374223
0.05545039280.05783710070.0675403644
0.06132489280.06349398570.0740481507
0.06522239280.06674610210.0777859513
0.06792389280.06872892950.0800869606
0.06978139280.0705660890.0816842241
0.07138689280.0719913730.0830266571
0.07248739280.07288001270.0838596951
0.07304939280.07330150450.0842851601
0.07445639280.07444238720.0855399045
0.07520739280.07497093480.086130908
0.07633039280.0758048250.087077953
0.07678689280.07597547540.0873448539
Benchmark
A. dficit
B. deuda
TASA DE INTERS SEGN SPREADS (US$)
0.01994779550.01994779550.0199477955
0.02044130080.02044130080.0204413008
0.02549773120.02549773120.0254977312
0.04487389210.04487389210.0448738921
0.0530398430.05630110320.061580706
0.04673003960.05285445480.0611646691
0.05035340640.0556447060.065476816
0.05004694820.05544102280.066086156
0.05196042660.05597949070.0673783134
0.05207583690.05571408920.0674192305
0.05193405470.05504923060.0671921796
0.05136626820.05502245780.0677842767
0.05034282130.0540198020.0674112024
0.0497682560.05342193890.0675913002
0.04866867050.05230426790.0671991503
0.0476768550.05127473750.0669787758
0.04616115230.0496977440.0661589807
Benchmark
A. dficit
B. deuda
INTERESES SEGN SPREADS (% PIB)
101.43101.4366.345385314552.2747376489
111.7162807791106.573140389666.345385314552.2747376489
101.85584614105.00070897366.345385314552.2747376489
99.5844184629103.646636345566.345385314552.2747376489
92.9694457239101.511198221266.345385314552.2747376489
84.60182489498.692969333366.345385314552.2747376489
72.21202788694.90997769866.345385314552.2747376489
64.272837495591.080335172766.345385314552.2747376489
54.401146447787.004869758866.345385314552.2747376489
48.09015034983.113397817866.345385314552.2747376489
42.514231867379.422564549666.345385314552.2747376489
41.585319049576.269460757966.345385314552.2747376489
41.107933131373.564727863666.345385314552.2747376489
41.129107323971.24789782566.345385314552.2747376489
42.15287008769.308229309166.345385314552.2747376489
42.95466560767.661131577866.345385314552.2747376489
45.293445102566.345385314566.345385314552.2747376489
63.428628362566.183343261666.345385314552.2747376489
72.084057483966.493907168166.345385314552.2747376489
71.112792335166.724851426466.345385314552.2747376489
70.18153355766.889455337466.345385314552.2747376489
67.533173800166.918715267566.345385314552.2747376489
66.22185003766.888416779266.345385314552.2747376489
64.935988871266.807065616466.345385314552.2747376489
63.675095883466.681786827166.345385314552.2747376489
62.438686254666.518590651266.345385314552.2747376489
61.226284579866.322579315266.345385314552.2747376489
60.03742468566.09810950766.345385314552.2747376489
58.871649448465.848921229166.345385314552.2747376489
57.728510624265.578240875666.345385314552.2747376489
56.607568670365.288864352966.345385314552.2747376489
TCR
media acum.
media perodo
media 90s
TCR 1985-2015; niveles
0.9859016070.9859016071.73599569652.0328636839
0.89512467930.94051314311.73599569652.0328636839
0.98177967970.95426865531.73599569652.0328636839
1.00417315820.96674478111.73599569652.0328636839
1.07562220280.98852026541.73599569652.0328636839
1.18200761.02076815451.73599569652.0328636839
1.38481085391.07277425441.73599569652.0328636839
1.55586720451.13316087321.73599569652.0328636839
1.83819655521.21149817121.73599569652.0328636839
2.07942789271.29829114331.73599569652.0328636839
2.35215351681.39409681371.73599569652.0328636839
2.40469478861.47831331161.73599569652.0328636839
2.43262047941.55172155521.73599569652.0328636839
2.43136811151.61455345211.73599569652.0328636839
2.37231770441.66507106891.73599569652.0328636839
2.32803581611.70650636561.73599569652.0328636839
2.20782499041.73599569651.73599569652.0328636839
1.57657516141.72713900011.73599569652.0328636839
1.38726930051.70925112121.73599569652.0328636839
1.40621675391.69409940281.73599569652.0328636839
1.4248762451.68127925241.73599569652.0328636839
1.48075374481.67216445661.73599569652.0328636839
1.51007560111.66511711511.73599569652.0328636839
1.53997808821.6599029891.73599569652.0328636839
1.57047270391.65632577761.73599569652.0328636839
1.60157117321.65421983121.73599569652.0328636839
1.63328545391.65344448391.73599569652.0328636839
1.66562774011.65387960021.73599569652.0328636839
1.69861046761.65542204391.73599569652.0328636839
1.73224631851.65798285311.73599569652.0328636839
1.76654822581.66148496191.73599569652.0328636839
P/E
media perodo
media 85-01
media 90s
PRECIOS EN US$ 1985-2015; niveles
10053.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
103.820602574253.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
101.865620608253.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
90.227417808253.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
80.826083871253.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
62.8342589453.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
44.499751784853.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
39.472113466353.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
42.645203070253.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
70.974713478953.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
74.252573281153.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
77.924267938253.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
66.203281797653.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
61.914613937753.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
60.657517619253.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
56.048245064753.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
50.197808429453.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
43.210953675153.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
38.599335512453.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
32.49766923853.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
29.041656761753.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
25.641502696553.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
25.174930036153.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
24.933920279953.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
25.027264219753.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
25.678552038253.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
26.110655434553.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
27.707275186553.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
38.829530726953.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
44.128183081653.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
43.533597152353.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
42.963502192453.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
41.342237958753.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
40.539476056653.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
39.752301764253.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
38.980412409653.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
38.223511197853.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
37.481307096853.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
36.75351472653.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
36.039854245953.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
35.340051250853.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
34.653836663453.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
"TCR" (E/P) base 1974=100
197426.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
197526.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
197626.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
31.061953174526.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
31.898756490726.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
30.791636144126.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
25.264635104826.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
20.579713315226.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
17.19938177826.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
26.273798896426.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
28.348255535426.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
29.679973046426.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
27.4983420226.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
26.926698066826.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
29.706245176326.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
25.632302268126.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
32.779741768326.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
31.05462004526.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
29.360326895226.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
26.308672966226.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
25.048645476226.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
24.392028856626.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
24.433993996226.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
23.900692679226.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
23.647405488926.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
21.173731040726.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
22.098401745626.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
21.971743882226.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
21.623584701326.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
25.925912790726.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
26.234389602226.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
26.566406310526.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
26.075178420226.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
26.080241561726.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
26.085305686226.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
26.090370794126.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
26.095436885626.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
26.100503960726.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
26.105572019726.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
26.110641062826.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
26.115711090226.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
26.120782102126.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
9. TCR (EP*/P), 1974-2015
1. INDICADORES DE SOLVENCIA 1991 - 1998; % PIB
19911992199319941995199619971998media
Deuda Pblica Bruta42.3%36.2%32.3%32.7%31.3%29.9%30.9%33.1%33.6%
Deuda Pblica Neta29.6%25.6%21.4%22.0%21.0%19.5%20.4%20.5%22.5%
Gap primario s* - s-10.6%-8.9%-6.5%-3.7%-3.1%-1.6%-0.9%-0.6%-4.5%
Gap tributario mediano plazo t* - t-7.6%-6.8%-6.1%-4.7%-2.2%0.0%1.1%1.3%-3.1%
1974-2003MEDIADESV.EST.M-D.SM+D.SVARcoeficientemedia^2
VAR E/P (devaluacin real)-2.0%18.1%-20.0%16.1%3.3%0.010.038%
VAR P/E4.4%15.4%-11.0%19.8%2.4%0.080.2%
VAR PIB real1.6%5.1%-3.5%6.7%0.3%0.090.025%
VAR Deflactor13%12%1%25%1.4%0.552%
VAR IPM34%30%4%65%9.2%0.5612%
DEVA nominal44%32%12%76%10.1%0.6619%
VAR IPC49%29%20%78%8.4%0.7424%
PIB millones de US$11,1946,2304,96517,42438,806,7320.76125,308,381
LIBOR PROMEDIO ANUAL7.53.63.811.113.30.8155.6
E/P, base 1974=10052.925.227.778.1634.30.822,797.7
PRECIOS/DOL (P/E)4.21.92.36.13.60.8317.7
PETRLEO (BRENT) PROMEDIO ANUAL22.27.115.129.350.90.91493.4
DESEMPLEO10.9%2.8%8.1%13.8%0.1%0.941.2%
IMSR69105979930.984,746
TCR25.53.522.028.912.00.98648.6
2. COEFICIENTE DE VOLATILIDAD, 1974-2003
variablee-pgpei*
CV0.010.090.550.660.81
3. DETERMINANTES DE A D/Y, 1999-2001
199920002001media
Deuda marginal7.6%4.7%9.2%7.2%
Componentes:
var. PIB g0.9%0.6%1.5%1.0%
intereses r2.2%2.5%2.9%2.6%
devaluacin real (e-p)0.8%0.8%2.5%1.4%
resultado primario s1.8%1.6%1.4%1.6%
seignorage m-0.1%-0.5%0.1%-0.1%
ajustes metodolgicos2.0%-0.3%0.7%0.8%
PROMEDIO ANUAL
BONO 2027BONO 2010BONO 2009
1998252.75----
1999224.63--204.69
2000266.08285.52249.53
2001315.99276.09266.70
20021008.961313.651333.82
20031080.341649.181576.59
2. SPREAD BONOS URUGUAYOS. Puntos bsicos, promedio anual
199819992000200120022003
BONO 20272532252663161,0091,080
BONO 2010----2862761,3141,649
BONO 2009--2052502671,3341,577
Grfico4
1188.7702742435
882.5665606711
508.7902660547
391.5053291997
129.890727669
-644.1160324195
Stock de Activos
Millones de dlares
STOCK DE ACTIVOS
G1
G1
0.56975007430.3471473278
0.56234078790.3769791307
0.55550118780.3797797783
0.42279349430.2961272262
0.36150843130.2559032052
0.32337359860.2137997452
0.32737974980.2201687477
0.3133091390.2096311613
0.29876046570.1953278978
0.30857017950.2035994726
0.33119684690.2048488247
0.40767450630.267430983
0.45491380990.3001788253
0.54688469370.359449135
0.92409091080.7665877455
Deuda Bruta
Deuda Neta
1. DEUDA PBLICA BRUTA y NETA / PIB, 1988-2002
G2
0.3471473278
0.3769791307
0.3797797783
0.2961272262
0.2559032052
0.2137997452
0.2201687477
0.2096311613
0.1953278978
0.2035994726
0.2048488247
0.267430983
0.3001788253
0.359449135
0.7665877455
Deuda Neta
DEUDA PBLICA NETA / PIB, 1988-2002
G3
G3
-0.0000870162
0.0161192365
0.0029734837
0.0353880849
0.0793158841
0.0265754611
0.0728134266
-0.0144759898
0.0557795777
0.0504771444
0.045383264
-0.0284653755
-0.014412413
-0.0338520586
-0.1076894741
consolidado
VARIACIN REAL DEL PIB g
G4
0.62191066770.5857413862
0.80445503410.6845926998
1.12527253190.9339895295
1.01971550150.7239315145
0.6845586210.4993535796
0.54098019520.3043004252
0.44742187070.279508612
0.42245742910.2575274671
0.28344204390.255399534
0.19818573960.1844309575
0.10810416770.1086749386
0.05658693720.082886909
0.04763827060.0675655418
0.0436522270.1004766114
0.13967306260.5959903023
inflacin
devaluacin
INFLACIN Y DEVALUACIN NOMINAL p, e
G4b
-0.0223004154
-0.0664257807
-0.0900039875
-0.1464483423
-0.1099427702
-0.1535904035
-0.1160085129
-0.1159472042
-0.0218494555
-0.0114796743
0.0005150877
0.0248914414
0.0190211371
0.0544476243
0.4003931081
DEVALUACIN REAL e - p
G5
0.0427872463
0.0297568365
0.0105709244
0.0188006448
0.0187223386
0.0172429537
0.0127868205
0.0175519473
0.0085808722
0.0099692326
0.0110436021
0.001140836
-0.0089143939
-0.00032477
0.0005497414
SEIGNORAGE / PIB m
G6
0.0811
0.0927
0.0832
0.0608
0.039
0.0341
0.0507
0.0609
0.0557
0.05805
0.0551333333
0.05505
0.0664916667
0.0373083333
0.0189
Libor
TASA DE INTERS LIBOR 6 MESES (US$) i*
G7
0.0048817993
-0.0043469295
0.0295166618
0.0369285433
0.038203802
0.0091298369
-0.0069174177
0.0098101392
0.0070503868
0.0082973724
0.0135343217
-0.017912069
-0.0156568575
-0.0137749538
0.004209611
(+) supervit, (-) dficit
RESULTADO PRIMARIO / PIB s
G8
G8
0.0518170812
0.0227495915
0.0003775133
-0.0888157885
-0.0472984093
-0.1020798085
-0.063914262
-0.049796799
0.0439237297
0.0607028683
0.0724618764
inflacin
TASA DE INTERS REAL PROMEDIO r
G4.1
0.0519040975
0.0066303551
-0.0025959704
-0.1242038734
-0.1266142933
-0.1286552696
-0.1367276886
-0.0353208092
-0.011855848
0.0102257239
0.0270786124
inflacin
LMITES A LA DINMICA DE D/Y: r-g
G4.2
19881989199019911992199319941995199619971998
Deuda Bruta SPG por instrumento100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Titulos Pblicos28%30%31%37%41%41%40%40%40%44%44%
Prstamos45%42%29%27%22%24%29%29%29%28%27%
Depsitos netos13%15%17%13%10%10%10%11%10%8%9%
Resto15%13%23%23%27%25%21%21%20%20%19%
Resultado fiscal1.2%
Pas. Mon.0.7%
Ttulos Pblicos1.6%
Prstamos0.2%
Depsitos netos-0.0%
RIN-1.3%
Otros0.0%
Otros0.0%
-1.3%
Depsitos netos-0.0%
Prstamos0.2%
Ttulos Pblicos1.6%
Pas. Mon.0.7%
Resultado fiscal1.2%
Corresponde a RIN. No le puse leyenda pues se la insert a piacere en el grfico.
Outstanding2004 to
as ofFinal
Dec. 31,1998 (1)199920002001200220032004Maturity
CALENDARIO DE AMORTIZACIONES5,5487595494305267633542,154
Fuente: I:GROUP\DEUDA5\OFFERING\JAPON\JAP0699.wb1.
G4.2
0
0
0
0
c) ESTRUCTURA DEUDA BRUTA 1990
Depsitos 13%
G4.3
0
0
0
0
d) ESTRUCTURA DEUDA BRUTA 1998
Depsitos 9%
G4.4
0
0
0
0
0
0
RIN
a) FUENTES DE FINANCIAMIENTO promedio 1995-1998 (% PIB)
G4.5
0
0
0
0
0
0
b) CALENDARIO AMORTIZACIONES en 1998, mill. US$
G4.6
valores promedios
19951996199719981999200020012002total1995-19981999-2001
Financiamiento1.5%1.4%1.4%0.9%4.0%4.1%4.3%4.0%2.7%1.2%4.1%
Pasivos monetarios1.1%1.1%0.7%0.3%0.1%0.5%-0.1%0.9%0.6%0.7%0.1%
Base monetaria restringida 1/1.0%0.9%0.7%0.5%0.3%-0.2%-0.0%0.0%
Encajes no rem. BROU (deducido Gobierno Central y BPS)-0.2%-0.2%-0.4%0.3%-0.3%0.6%-0.1%-0.1%
Encajes rem. BROU, Banca y BHU0.2%0.3%0.1%-0.1%0.1%-0.2%0.0%0.0%
Instrumentos de liquidez 2/-0.0%0.2%0.4%-0.4%-0.0%0.1%0.0%1.0%
Endeudamiento1.6%0.9%2.3%2.1%4.1%4.6%6.8%1.6%3.0%1.8%5.1%
Ttulos Pblicos1.7%1.0%1.9%1.9%1.5%3.4%4.6%-4.3%1.5%1.6%3.2%
de los cuales: Bonos Brady-0.0%0.1%-0.0%-0.2%-0.7%-0.2%-0.9%-0.2%-0.3%-0.1%-0.6%
Prstamos externos-0.1%-0.2%0.3%0.5%1.2%0.6%0.6%14.4%2.1%0.2%0.8%
Sector financiero 3/0.0%0.2%0.1%-0.4%1.4%0.6%1.6%-8.5%-0.6%-0.0%1.2%
RIN-1.2%-0.8%-1.6%-1.6%-0.1%-0.8%-2.0%15.2%0.9%-1.3%-1.0%
Otros0.1%0.1%-0.1%0.1%-0.1%-0.1%-0.4%-13.6%-1.7%0.0%-0.2%
(+) fuente ( - ) uso
G4.7,8
G4.7,8
0.0000333985-0.0138824480.046139602-0.0427872463-0.0048817993
-0.0050088511-0.03724572090.0500016859-0.02975683650.0043469295
-0.0007844424-0.05046286270.0506745245-0.0105709244-0.0295166618
-0.009400451-0.07857172520.0309207268-0.0188006448-0.0369285433
-0.0184439429-0.04306717680.0245392741-0.0187223386-0.038203802
-0.0060731122-0.05408684310.0181394502-0.0172429537-0.0091298369
-0.0151634037-0.03496795370.015702549-0.01278682050.0069174177
0.0033805985-0.03851632870.0219744044-0.0105247544-0.0098101392
-0.0128972989-0.00648396150.0195186007-0.0110805082-0.0070503868
-0.0119813885-0.00326487150.0205290426-0.0074629125-0.0082973724
-0.01208908830.00015204060.0212368365-0.0028506781-0.0135343217
g
e-p
r
m
s
5. DINMICA DEUDA / PIB: COMPONENTES 1988-1998
series hist.
series hist.
-0.0280380426
-0.0103335109
0.0247364479
-0.0323508525
-0.0145046231
-0.0124339513
% PBI
COMPONENTES DEUDA MARGINAL 1991-1998
C1
0.0718959489
0.0100490792
0.0255340855
0.0136446269
0.0157812934
-0.0013666119
% PBI
COMPONENTES DEUDA MARGINAL 1999-2001
C2
0.377206217
0.0579125549
0.0446379148
0.2415448369
-0.004209611
-0.0088628003
% PBI
COMPONENTES DEUDA MARGINAL 2002
C3
-0.0223214487
-0.001919965
0.0524875876
-0.0338636772
-0.0100171772
-0.0277050024
% PBI
COMPONENTES DEUDA MARGINAL 1988-1990
C4
C4
-0.0042630831
0.0165714691
-0.0005740572
-0.0756700785
-0.0683308994
-0.0607942332
-0.0470376329
-0.0215937868
0.0003216606
0.0111622178
0.0130625204
0.045095482
0.0303422833
0.0494916923
0.3139292644
simple
GAP TRIBUTARIO DE MeP/ PIB t*-t
-0.0143301983
-0.0132417305
-0.0354827737
-0.1061934387
-0.0886800408
-0.0645321512
-0.0369441227
-0.0309740064
-0.0164444985
-0.0091908174
-0.0061328434
0.0565374387
0.0497832961
0.0846066844
0.3310228954
simple
GAP PRIMARIO / PIB s*-s
306.2037135724
373.7762946165
117.284936855
261.6146015306
774.0067600885
955.23148246
880.7764936215
942.6456228577
771.0448588106
750.4632833502
971.3993009689
834.8897810192
645.8343465537
Brecha de Financiamiento ( - acumula RIN, + desacumula RIN)
Millones de dlares
BRECHA DE FINANCIAMIENTO
1188.7702742435
882.5665606711
508.7902660547
391.5053291997
129.890727669
-644.1160324195
Stock de Activos
Millones de dlares
STOCK DE ACTIVOS
0.40767450630.267430983
0.45491380990.3001788253
0.54688469370.359449135
0.92409091080.7665877455
1.1011853940.9359182254
1.06519273720.9029953368
1.0314597880.8693287144
0.97647543790.8120811242
0.94201286550.7746128965
0.90797499820.7369869003
0.87424070030.6991207496
0.84028700490.6606142586
0.8056683460.6211608249
0.77079557550.580869746
0.73515672740.5394247098
0.69882880620.4967360292
0.6613207230.4525186968
Deuda Bruta
Deuda Neta
1. DEUDA PBLICA BRUTA y NETA / PIB, 1999-2015
0.045095482
0.0303422833
0.0494916923
0.3139292644
0.1708157574
-0.0454231641
-0.0361353452
-0.0560911767
-0.0356819836
-0.0355437362
-0.0356521671
-0.0358948115
-0.0366710779
-0.0369748766
-0.0378390959
-0.0385752823
-0.0398870679
simple
GAP TRIBUTARIO DE MeP/ PIB t*-t
0.0565374387
0.0497832961
0.0846066844
0.3310228954
0.1770944832
-0.0359926568
-0.0337329492
-0.0549843501
-0.0344625724
-0.0340378673
-0.0337342979
-0.0339536955
-0.0346186589
-0.0348727705
-0.0356388481
-0.0363279211
-0.0375080832
simple
GAP PRIMARIO / PIB s*-s
0.00918416320.00815234950.0199477955-0.00055716840.017912069
0.00569041150.00755891810.0204413008-0.00452542880.0156568575
0.0152726630.02522261310.02549773120.00098276140.0137749538
0.05791255490.24154483690.0448738921-0.0088628003-0.004209611
0.02532267060.12513611410.053039843-0.0090554423-0.0173487022
-0.0373457587-0.01370331180.0467300396-0.0090554423-0.0226181837
-0.0316515734-0.01296145920.0503534064-0.0090554423-0.0304178808
-0.0237335432-0.03644980310.0500469482-0.0090554423-0.0357925097
-0.0231227904-0.01775590670.0519604266-0.0090554423-0.0364888597
-0.0223067219-0.01712925060.0520758369-0.0090554423-0.0376222893
-0.0215007104-0.01651031730.0519340547-0.0090554423-0.0386018826
-0.0207018873-0.0158969040.0513662682-0.0090554423-0.0396657301
-0.0198978689-0.01527950120.0503428213-0.0090554423-0.0407286678
-0.0190781043-0.0146500070.049768256-0.0090554423-0.041857473
-0.0182523224-0.0140158920.0486686705-0.0090554423-0.042983862
-0.0174083999-0.0133678470.047676855-0.0090554423-0.0441730869
-0.0165481602-0.01270727210.0461611523-0.0090554423-0.045358361
g
e-p
r
m
s
3. DINMICA DEUDA / PIB: COMPONENTES 1999-2015
0.00918416320.00815234950.0199477955
0.00569041150.00755891810.0204413008
0.0152726630.02522261310.0254977312
0.05791255490.24154483690.0448738921
0.02532267060.12513611410.053039843
-0.0373457587-0.01370331180.0467300396
-0.0316515734-0.01296145920.0503534064
-0.0237335432-0.03644980310.0500469482
-0.0231227904-0.01775590670.0519604266
-0.0223067219-0.01712925060.0520758369
-0.0215007104-0.01651031730.0519340547
-0.0207018873-0.0158969040.0513662682
-0.0198978689-0.01527950120.0503428213
-0.0190781043-0.0146500070.049768256
-0.0182523224-0.0140158920.0486686705
-0.0174083999-0.0133678470.047676855
-0.0165481602-0.01270727210.0461611523
g
e-p
r
3. DINMICA DEUDA/PIB: COMPONENTES MACRO 1999-2015
0.0199477955-0.00055716840.017912069
0.0204413008-0.00452542880.0156568575
0.02549773120.00098276140.0137749538
0.0448738921-0.0088628003-0.004209611
0.053039843-0.0090554423-0.0173487022
0.0467300396-0.0090554423-0.0226181837
0.0503534064-0.0090554423-0.0304178808
0.0500469482-0.0090554423-0.0357925097
0.0519604266-0.0090554423-0.0364888597
0.0520758369-0.0090554423-0.0376222893
0.0519340547-0.0090554423-0.0386018826
0.0513662682-0.0090554423-0.0396657301
0.0503428213-0.0090554423-0.0407286678
0.049768256-0.0090554423-0.041857473
0.0486686705-0.0090554423-0.042983862
0.047676855-0.0090554423-0.0441730869
0.0461611523-0.0090554423-0.045358361
r
m
s
3. DINMICA DEUDA/PIB: COMPONENTES FISCALES 1999-2015
-0.03975809440.0218460255-0.017912069
-0.04105939530.0254025378-0.0156568575
-0.0431286470.0293536932-0.0137749538
-0.04042830380.04463791480.004209611
-0.02886944150.04621814370.0173487022
-0.02411185590.04673003960.0226181837
-0.01993552570.05035340640.0304178808
-0.01425443850.05004694820.0357925097
-0.01547156690.05196042660.0364888597
-0.01445354750.05207583690.0376222893
-0.0133321720.05193405470.0386018826
-0.01170053810.05136626820.0396657301
-0.00961415360.05034282130.0407286678
-0.00791078310.0497682560.041857473
-0.00568480860.04866867050.042983862
-0.0035037680.0476768550.0441730869
-0.00080279130.04616115230.045358361
consolidado
intereses
primario
4. RESULTADO FISCAL / PIB, 1999-2015
-0.0359926568
-0.0373457587
0.0467300396
-0.0137033118
-0.0226181837
-0.0090554423
% PBI
COMPONENTES DEUDA MARGINAL 2004
-0.0337329492
-0.0316515734
0.0503534064
-0.0129614592
-0.0304178808
-0.0090554423
% PBI
COMPONENTES DEUDA MARGINAL 2015
-0.2627701878
-0.2462251704
0.6501245788
-0.0752913578
-0.4736574887
-0.1177207497
% PBI
COMPONENTES DEUDA MARGINAL 2002-2015
0.1770944832
0.0253226706
0.053039843
0.1251361141
-0.0173487022
-0.0090554423
% PBI
COMPONENTES DEUDA MARGINAL 2003
2. ALTERNATIVAS DE AJUSTE FISCAL
20032004200520062007200820092015
Benchmark1.7%2.3%3.0%3.6%3.6%3.8%3.9%4.5%
k=1%2.7%3.3%4.0%4.6%4.6%4.8%4.9%5.5%
k=2%3.7%4.3%5.0%5.6%5.6%5.8%5.9%6.5%
Memo: acuerdo FMI3.2%3.3%3.3%3.5%3.7%3.9%4.0%4.0%
0.40767450630.40767450630.40767450630.4076745063
0.45491380990.45491380990.45491380990.4549138099
0.54688469370.54688469370.54688469370.5468846937
0.92409091080.92409091080.92409091080.9240909108
1.1011853941.0911853941.0811853941.0865340962
1.06519273721.04512842591.02506424161.0400654419
1.0314597881.00108399940.97070833981.0033603623
0.97647543790.9361045250.89573374110.9491733833
0.94201286550.89078536410.83955799440.9136216646
0.90797499820.84557516640.78317546930.8775583173
0.87424070030.80032321990.72640587750.8416885857
0.84028700490.75449943110.66871199890.8065799714
0.8056683460.7076682760.60966835110.7710954914
0.77079557550.66014506040.54949469440.735291846
0.73515672740.61144042930.48772428430.6986740629
0.69882880620.56156124110.42429383350.6613042776
0.6613207230.51005858210.35879660330.6227101106
BENCHMARK
ajuste 1%
ajuste 2%
primario MEF
AJUSTE FISCAL Y DEUDA BRUTA
0.40767450630.40767450630.4076745063
0.45491380990.45491380990.4549138099
0.54688469370.54688469370.5468846937
0.92409091080.92409091080.9240909108
1.1011853941.0911853941.081185394
1.06519273721.04512842591.0250642416
1.0314597881.00108399940.9707083398
0.97647543790.9361045250.8957337411
0.94201286550.89078536410.8395579944
0.90797499820.84557516640.7831754693
0.87424070030.80032321990.7264058775
0.84028700490.75449943110.6687119989
0.8056683460.7076682760.6096683511
0.77079557550.66014506040.5494946944
0.73515672740.61144042930.4877242843
0.69882880620.56156124110.4242938335
0.6613207230.51005858210.3587966033
Benchmark
k=1%
k=2%
6. AJUSTE FISCAL Y DEUDA BRUTA
Deuda Pblica Bruta segn spreads (05/08/03)
19992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
fijos40.8%45.5%54.7%92.4%110.1%106.5%103.1%97.6%94.2%90.8%87.4%84.0%80.6%77.1%73.5%69.9%66.1%
variables - resultado fiscal40.8%45.5%54.7%92.4%112.7%115.1%111.3%105.9%101.5%97.3%93.1%89.8%86.5%83.1%79.6%76.1%72.4%
variables - Deuda Bruta40.8%45.5%54.7%92.4%113.2%116.5%113.6%109.1%105.7%102.4%99.2%96.9%94.6%92.3%90.0%87.6%85.1%
Tasa de inters promedio (US$) segn spreads (05/08/03)
19992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
fijos5.6%5.7%6.1%5.4%5.2%5.5%6.1%6.5%6.8%7.0%7.1%7.2%7.3%7.4%7.5%7.6%7.7%
variables - resultado fiscal5.6%5.7%6.1%5.4%5.4%5.8%6.3%6.7%6.9%7.1%7.2%7.3%7.3%7.4%7.5%7.6%7.6%
variables - Deuda Bruta5.6%5.7%6.1%5.4%6.0%6.8%7.4%7.8%8.0%8.2%8.3%8.4%8.4%8.6%8.6%8.7%8.7%
Intereses segn spreads (05/08/03)
19992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
fijos2.0%2.0%2.5%4.5%5.3%4.7%5.0%5.0%5.2%5.2%5.2%5.1%5.0%5.0%4.9%4.8%4.6%
variables - resultado fiscal2.0%2.0%2.5%4.5%5.6%5.3%5.6%5.5%5.6%5.6%5.5%5.5%5.4%5.3%5.2%5.1%5.0%
variables - Deuda Bruta2.0%2.0%2.5%4.5%6.2%6.1%6.5%6.6%6.7%6.7%6.7%6.8%6.7%6.8%6.7%6.7%6.6%
Deuda Pblica Bruta adicional (05/08/03)
19992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
variables - resultado fiscal2.6%8.6%8.2%8.3%7.3%6.5%5.6%5.8%5.9%6.0%6.1%6.2%6.3%
variables - Deuda Bruta3.1%9.9%10.5%11.5%11.5%11.6%11.7%12.9%14.0%15.2%16.5%17.7%19.0%
Intereses adicionales (05/08/03)
19992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
variables - resultado fiscal0.3%0.6%0.5%0.5%0.4%0.4%0.3%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.4%
variables - Deuda Bruta0.9%1.4%1.5%1.6%1.5%1.5%1.5%1.6%1.7%1.8%1.9%1.9%2.0%
&L&F&C&A&R&D
0.02553007470.0233
0.03354433570.0340614687
0.03387963750.0352152767
0.03441281470.0371274116
0.03371702630.0455307524
0.03073869280.0501422619
0.02951282150.0496072914
0.02843672040.0490901567
0.02697289370.0479748904
0.02728650710.0473873016
0.02702419740.0467942175
0.02673525630.0461927715
0.02631483860.0455680124
0.02577724690.0449072913
0.02533834510.0442236315
0.02476478570.0435023326
0.02420280420.042746347
A. dficit
B. deuda
7. SPREADS ENDGENOS (%)
0.40767450630.40767450630.4076745063
0.45491380990.45491380990.4549138099
0.54688469370.54688469370.5468846937
0.92409091080.92409091080.9240909108
1.1011853941.12712621961.1324058224
1.06519273721.15099770071.1646001212
1.0314597881.11335516611.136153727
0.97647543791.05898648051.0910999301
0.94201286551.01546063961.0573365597
0.90797499820.97275384211.0242011012
0.87424070030.93057873260.9915474275
0.84028700490.89792271850.9691008682
0.8056683460.86456820650.9461579889
0.77079557550.83088336350.9232268719
0.73515672740.79636462650.8997371932
0.69882880620.76107220990.8758212756
0.6613207230.72449499050.8509014933
Benchmark
A. dficit
B. deuda
8. DEUDA BRUTA SEGN SPREADS (% PIB)
0.05630973830.05630973830.0563097383
0.05675577080.05675577080.0567557708
0.06082795170.06082795170.0608279517
0.05404754250.05404754250.0540475425
0.05153269940.05443055920.0603374223
0.05545039280.05783710070.0675403644
0.06132489280.06349398570.0740481507
0.06522239280.06674610210.0777859513
0.06792389280.06872892950.0800869606
0.06978139280.0705660890.0816842241
0.07138689280.0719913730.0830266571
0.07248739280.07288001270.0838596951
0.07304939280.07330150450.0842851601
0.07445639280.07444238720.0855399045
0.07520739280.07497093480.086130908
0.07633039280.0758048250.087077953
0.07678689280.07597547540.0873448539
Benchmark
A. dficit
B. deuda
TASA DE INTERS SEGN SPREADS (US$)
0.01994779550.01994779550.0199477955
0.02044130080.02044130080.0204413008
0.02549773120.02549773120.0254977312
0.04487389210.04487389210.0448738921
0.0530398430.05630110320.061580706
0.04673003960.05285445480.0611646691
0.05035340640.0556447060.065476816
0.05004694820.05544102280.066086156
0.05196042660.05597949070.0673783134
0.05207583690.05571408920.0674192305
0.05193405470.05504923060.0671921796
0.05136626820.05502245780.0677842767
0.05034282130.0540198020.0674112024
0.0497682560.05342193890.0675913002
0.04866867050.05230426790.0671991503
0.0476768550.05127473750.0669787758
0.04616115230.0496977440.0661589807
Benchmark
A. dficit
B. deuda
INTERESES SEGN SPREADS (% PIB)
101.43101.4366.345385314552.2747376489
111.7162807791106.573140389666.345385314552.2747376489
101.85584614105.00070897366.345385314552.2747376489
99.5844184629103.646636345566.345385314552.2747376489
92.9694457239101.511198221266.345385314552.2747376489
84.60182489498.692969333366.345385314552.2747376489
72.21202788694.90997769866.345385314552.2747376489
64.272837495591.080335172766.345385314552.2747376489
54.401146447787.004869758866.345385314552.2747376489
48.09015034983.113397817866.345385314552.2747376489
42.514231867379.422564549666.345385314552.2747376489
41.585319049576.269460757966.345385314552.2747376489
41.107933131373.564727863666.345385314552.2747376489
41.129107323971.24789782566.345385314552.2747376489
42.15287008769.308229309166.345385314552.2747376489
42.95466560767.661131577866.345385314552.2747376489
45.293445102566.345385314566.345385314552.2747376489
63.428628362566.183343261666.345385314552.2747376489
72.084057483966.493907168166.345385314552.2747376489
71.112792335166.724851426466.345385314552.2747376489
70.18153355766.889455337466.345385314552.2747376489
67.533173800166.918715267566.345385314552.2747376489
66.22185003766.888416779266.345385314552.2747376489
64.935988871266.807065616466.345385314552.2747376489
63.675095883466.681786827166.345385314552.2747376489
62.438686254666.518590651266.345385314552.2747376489
61.226284579866.322579315266.345385314552.2747376489
60.03742468566.09810950766.345385314552.2747376489
58.871649448465.848921229166.345385314552.2747376489
57.728510624265.578240875666.345385314552.2747376489
56.607568670365.288864352966.345385314552.2747376489
TCR
media acum.
media perodo
media 90s
TCR 1985-2015; niveles
0.9859016070.9859016071.73599569652.0328636839
0.89512467930.94051314311.73599569652.0328636839
0.98177967970.95426865531.73599569652.0328636839
1.00417315820.96674478111.73599569652.0328636839
1.07562220280.98852026541.73599569652.0328636839
1.18200761.02076815451.73599569652.0328636839
1.38481085391.07277425441.73599569652.0328636839
1.55586720451.13316087321.73599569652.0328636839
1.83819655521.21149817121.73599569652.0328636839
2.07942789271.29829114331.73599569652.0328636839
2.35215351681.39409681371.73599569652.0328636839
2.40469478861.47831331161.73599569652.0328636839
2.43262047941.55172155521.73599569652.0328636839
2.43136811151.61455345211.73599569652.0328636839
2.37231770441.66507106891.73599569652.0328636839
2.32803581611.70650636561.73599569652.0328636839
2.20782499041.73599569651.73599569652.0328636839
1.57657516141.72713900011.73599569652.0328636839
1.38726930051.70925112121.73599569652.0328636839
1.40621675391.69409940281.73599569652.0328636839
1.4248762451.68127925241.73599569652.0328636839
1.48075374481.67216445661.73599569652.0328636839
1.51007560111.66511711511.73599569652.0328636839
1.53997808821.6599029891.73599569652.0328636839
1.57047270391.65632577761.73599569652.0328636839
1.60157117321.65421983121.73599569652.0328636839
1.63328545391.65344448391.73599569652.0328636839
1.66562774011.65387960021.73599569652.0328636839
1.69861046761.65542204391.73599569652.0328636839
1.73224631851.65798285311.73599569652.0328636839
1.76654822581.66148496191.73599569652.0328636839
P/E
media perodo
media 85-01
media 90s
PRECIOS EN US$ 1985-2015; niveles
10053.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
103.820602574253.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
101.865620608253.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
90.227417808253.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
80.826083871253.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
62.8342589453.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
44.499751784853.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
39.472113466353.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
42.645203070253.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
70.974713478953.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
74.252573281153.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
77.924267938253.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
66.203281797653.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
61.914613937753.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
60.657517619253.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
56.048245064753.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
50.197808429453.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
43.210953675153.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
38.599335512453.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
32.49766923853.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
29.041656761753.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
25.641502696553.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
25.174930036153.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
24.933920279953.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
25.027264219753.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
25.678552038253.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
26.110655434553.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
27.707275186553.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
38.829530726953.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
44.128183081653.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
43.533597152353.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
42.963502192453.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
41.342237958753.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
40.539476056653.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
39.752301764253.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
38.980412409653.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
38.223511197853.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
37.481307096853.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
36.75351472653.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
36.039854245953.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
35.340051250853.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
34.653836663453.031516751927.908604194678.1544293092
"TCR" (E/P) base 1974=100
197426.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
197526.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
197626.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
31.061953174526.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
31.898756490726.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
30.791636144126.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
25.264635104826.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
20.579713315226.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
17.19938177826.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
26.273798896426.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
28.348255535426.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
29.679973046426.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
27.4983420226.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
26.926698066826.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
29.706245176326.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
25.632302268126.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
32.779741768326.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
31.05462004526.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
29.360326895226.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
26.308672966226.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
25.048645476226.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
24.392028856626.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
24.433993996226.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
23.900692679226.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
23.647405488926.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
21.173731040726.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
22.098401745626.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
21.971743882226.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
21.623584701326.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
25.925912790726.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
26.234389602226.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
26.566406310526.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
26.075178420226.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
26.080241561726.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
26.085305686226.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
26.090370794126.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
26.095436885626.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
26.100503960726.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
26.105572019726.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
26.110641062826.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
26.115711090226.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
26.120782102126.095599753722.176728996430.0144705109
9. TCR (EP*/P), 1974-2015
1. INDICADORES DE SOLVENCIA 1991 - 1998; % PIB
19911992199319941995199619971998media
Deuda Pblica Bruta42.3%36.2%32.3%32.7%31.3%29.9%30.9%33.1%33.6%
Deuda Pblica Neta29.6%25.6%21.4%22.0%21.0%19.5%20.4%20.5%22.5%
Gap primario s* - s-10.6%-8.9%-6.5%-3.7%-3.1%-1.6%-0.9%-0.6%-4.5%
Gap tributario mediano plazo t* - t-7.6%-6.8%-6.1%-4.7%-2.2%0.0%1.1%1.3%-3.1%
1974-2003MEDIADESV.EST.M-D.SM+D.SVARcoeficientemedia^2
VAR E/P (devaluacin real)-2.0%18.1%-20.0%16.1%3.3%0.010.038%
VAR P/E4.4%15.4%-11.0%19.8%2.4%0.080.2%
VAR PIB real1.6%5.1%-3.5%6.7%0.3%0.090.025%
VAR Deflactor13%12%1%25%1.4%0.552%
VAR IPM34%30%4%65%9.2%0.5612%
DEVA nominal44%32%12%76%10.1%0.6619%
VAR IPC49%29%20%78%8.4%0.7424%
PIB millones de US$11,1946,2304,96517,42438,806,7320.76125,308,381
LIBOR PROMEDIO ANUAL7.53.63.811.113.30.8155.6
E/P, base 1974=10052.925.227.778.1634.30.822,797.7
PRECIOS/DOL (P/E)4.21.92.36.13.60.8317.7
PETRLEO (BRENT) PROMEDIO ANUAL22.27.115.129.350.90.91493.4
DESEMPLEO10.9%2.8%8.1%13.8%0.1%0.941.2%
IMSR69105979930.984,746
TCR25.53.522.028.912.00.98648.6
2. COEFICIENTE DE VOLATILIDAD, 1974-2003
variablee-pgpei*
CV0.010.090.550.660.81
3. DETERMINANTES DE A D/Y, 1999-2001
199920002001media
Deuda marginal7.6%4.7%9.2%7.2%
Componentes:
var. PIB g0.9%0.6%1.5%1.0%
intereses r2.2%2.5%2.9%2.6%
devaluacin real (e-p)0.8%0.8%2.5%1.4%
resultado primario s1.8%1.6%1.4%1.6%
seignorage m-0.1%-0.5%0.1%-0.1%
ajustes metodolgicos2.0%-0.3%0.7%0.8%
PROMEDIO ANUAL
BONO 2027BONO 2010BONO 2009
1998252.75----
1999224.63--204.69
2000266.08285.52249.53
2001315.99276.09266.70
20021008.961313.651333.82
20031080.341649.181576.59
2. SPREAD BONOS URUGUAYOS. Puntos bsicos, promedio anual
199819992000200120022003
BONO 20272532252663161,0091,080
BONO 2010----2862761,3141,649
BONO 2009--2052502671,3341,577
-
INDICADORES (2)Alta volatilidad (e-p)RecesinVulnerabilidad: riesgo creciente desde 1999 Sin embargo, el sector privado mantena una percepcin de Sostenibilidad:
SPREAD BONO 2027, pb199819992000200120022532252663161.009
-
III. SIMULACIONES DE LARGO PLAZO Escenario Benchmark (inercial)
PRINCIPALES SUPUESTOS
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
> 2006
( PIB real
-10.8
0.8
6.1
4.2
2.5
2.5
Inflacin promedio
14.0
19.4
13.6
14.2
6.0
3.0
Devaluacin promedio
59.6
32.7
10.0
10.0
2.0
1.0
( precios en dlares
-28.6
-12.0
1.4
1.3
3.9
2.0
Tasa Libor (US$)
1.9
1.3
2.2
3.4
4.2
Creciente
Supervit fiscal primario
0.4
2.0
2.0
3.1
3.8
Creciente
-
Incorporacin de spreads endgenos
Grfico2
0.40767450630.40767450630.4076745063
0.45491380990.45491380990.4549138099
0.54688469370.54688469370.5468846937
0.92409091080.92409091080.9240909108
1.1011853941.12712621961.1324058224
1.06519273721.15099770071.1646001212
1.0314597881.11335516611.136153727
0.97647543791.05898648051.0910999301
0.94201286551.01546063961.0573365597
0.90797499820.97275384211.0242011012
0.87424070030.93057873260.9915474275
0.84028700490.89792271850.9691008682
0.8056683460.86456820650.9461579889
0.77079557550.83088336350.9232268719
0.73515672740.79636462650.8997371932
0.69882880620.76107220990.8758212756
0.6613207230.72449499050.8509014933
Benchmark
A. dficit
B. deuda
DEUDA BRUTA SEGN SPREADS (% PIB)
G1
G1
0.56975007430.3471473278
0.56234078790.3769791307
0.55550118780.3797797783
0.42279349430.2961272262
0.36150843130.2559032052
0.32337359860.2137997452
0.32737974980.2201687477
0.3133091390.2096311613
0.29876046570.1953278978
0.30857017950.2035994726
0.33119684690.2048488247
0.41774098410.2674309831
0.46403973180.3001788253
0.55601446040.359449135
0.92409086480.7631950565
Deuda Bruta
Deuda Neta
1. DEUDA PBLICA BRUTA y NETA / PIB, 1988-2002
G2
0.3471473278
0.3769791307
0.3797797783
0.2961272262
0.2559032052
0.2137997452
0.2201687477
0.2096311613
0.1953278978
0.2035994726
0.2048488247
0.2674309831
0.3001788253
0.359449135
0.7631950565
Deuda Neta
DEUDA PBLICA NETA / PIB, 1988-2002
G3
G3
-0.0000870162
0.0161192365
0.0029734837
0.0353880849
0.0793158841
0.0265754611
0.0728134266
-0.0144759898
0.0557795777
0.0504771444
0.045383264
-0.0284653755
-0.014412413
-0.0338520586
-0.1076894741
consolidado
VARIACIN REAL DEL PIB g
G4
0.62191066770.5857413862
0.80445503410.6845926998
1.12527253190.9339895295
1.01971550150.7239315145
0.6845586210.4993535796
0.54098019520.3043004252
0.44742187070.279508612
0.42245742910.2575274671
0.28344204390.255399534
0.19818573960.1844309575
0.10810416770.1086749386
0.05658693720.082886909
0.04763827060.0675655418
0.0436522270.1004766114
0.13967306260.5959903023
inflacin
devaluacin
INFLACIN Y DEVALUACIN NOMINAL p, e
G4b
-0.0223004154
-0.0664257807
-0.0900039875
-0.1464483423
-0.1099427702
-0.1535904035
-0.1160085129
-0.1159472042
-0.0218494555
-0.0114796743
0.0005150877
0.0248914414
0.0190211371
0.0544476243
0.4003931081
DEVALUACIN REAL e - p
G5
0.0427872463
0.0297568365
0.0105709244
0.0188006448
0.0187223386
0.0172429537
0.0127868205
0.0175519473
0.0085808722
0.0099692326
0.0110436021
0.001140836
-0.0089143939
-0.00032477
0.0005497414
SEIGNORAGE / PIB m
G6
0.0811
0.0927
0.0832
0.0608
0.039
0.0341
0.0507
0.0609
0.0557
0.05805
0.0551333333
0.05505
0.0664916667
0.0373083333
0.0189
Libor
TASA DE INTERS LIBOR 6 MESES (US$) i*
G7
0.0048817993
-0.0043469295
0.0295166618
0.0369285433
0.038203802
0.0091298369
-0.0069174177
0.0098101392
0.0070503868
0.0082973724
0.0135261771
-0.0179190268
-0.0156652422
-0.0137960135
0.0041771071
(+) supervit, (-) dficit
RESULTADO PRIMARIO / PIB s
G8
G8
0.0518170812
0.0227495915
0.0003775133
-0.0888157885
-0.0472984093
-0.1020798085
-0.063914262
-0.049796799
0.0439237297
0.0607028683
0.0724354683
inflacin
TASA DE INTERS REAL PROMEDIO r
G4.1
0.0519040975
0.0066303551
-0.0025959704
-0.1242038734
-0.1266142933
-0.1286552696
-0.1367276886
-0.0353208092
-0.011855848
0.0102257239
0.0270522043
inflacin
LMITES A LA DINMICA DE D/Y: r-g
G4.2
19881989199019911992199319941995199619971998
Deuda Bruta SPG por instrumento100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Titulos Pblicos28%30%31%37%41%41%40%40%40%44%44%
Prstamos45%42%29%27%22%24%29%29%29%28%27%
Depsitos netos13%15%17%13%10%10%10%11%10%8%9%
Resto15%13%23%23%27%25%21%21%20%20%19%
Resultado fiscal1.2%
Pas. Mon.0.7%
Ttulos Pblicos1.6%
Prstamos0.2%
Depsitos netos-0.0%
RIN-1.3%
Otros0.0%
Otros0.0%
-1.3%
Depsitos netos-0.0%
Prstamos0.2%
Ttulos Pblicos1.6%
Pas. Mon.0.7%
Resultado fiscal1.2%
Corresponde a RIN. No le puse leyenda pues se la insert a piacere en el grfico.
Outstanding2004 to
as ofFinal
Dec. 31,1998 (1)199920002001200220032004Maturity
CALENDARIO DE AMORTIZACIONES5,5487595494305267633542,154
Fuente: I:GROUP\DEUDA5\OFFERING\JAPON\JAP0699.wb1.
G4.2
0
0
0
0
c) ESTRUCTURA DEUDA BRUTA 1990
Depsitos 13%
G4.3
0
0
0
0
d) ESTRUCTURA DEUDA BRUTA 1998
Depsitos 9%
G4.4
0
0
0
0
0
0
RIN
a) FUENTES DE FINANCIAMIENTO promedio 1995-1998 (% PIB)
G4.5
0
0
0
0
0
0
b) CALENDARIO AMORTIZACIONES en 1998, mill. US$
G4.6
valores promedios
19951996199719981999200020012002total1995-19981999-2001
Financiamiento1.5%1.4%1.4%0.9%4.0%4.1%4.3%4.0%2.7%1.2%4.1%
Pasivos monetarios1.1%1.1%0.7%0.3%0.1%0.5%-0.1%0.9%0.6%0.7%0.1%
Base monetaria restringida 1/1.0%0.9%0.7%0.5%0.3%-0.2%-0.0%0.0%
Encajes no rem. BROU (deducido Gobierno Central y BPS)-0.2%-0.2%-0.4%0.3%-0.3%0.6%-0.1%-0.1%
Encajes rem. BROU, Banca y BHU0.2%0.3%0.1%-0.1%0.1%-0.2%0.0%0.0%
Instrumentos de liquidez 2/-0.0%0.2%0.4%-0.4%-0.0%0.1%0.0%1.0%
Endeudamiento1.6%0.9%2.3%2.1%4.1%4.6%6.8%3.3%3.2%1.8%5.1%
Ttulos Pblicos1.7%1.0%1.9%1.9%1.5%3.4%4.6%-4.3%1.5%1.6%3.2%
de los cuales: Bonos Brady-0.0%0.1%-0.0%-0.2%-0.7%-0.2%-0.9%-0.2%-0.3%-0.1%-0.6%
Prstamos externos-0.1%-0.2%0.3%0.5%1.2%0.6%0.6%14.4%2.1%0.2%0.8%
Sector financiero 3/0.0%0.2%0.1%-0.4%1.4%0.6%1.6%-6.8%-0.4%-0.0%1.2%
RIN-1.2%-0.8%-1.6%-1.6%-0.1%-0.8%-2.0%15.2%0.9%-1.3%-1.0%
Otros0.1%0.1%-0.1%0.1%-0.1%-0.1%-0.4%-15.3%-2.0%0.0%-0.2%
(+) fuente ( - ) uso
G4.7,8
G4.7,8
0.0000333985-0.0138824480.046139602-0.0427872463-0.0048817993
-0.0050088511-0.03724572090.0500016859-0.02975683650.0043469295
-0.0007844424-0.05046286270.0506745245-0.0105709244-0.0295166618
-0.009400451-0.07857172520.0309207268-0.0188006448-0.0369285433
-0.0184439429-0.04306717680.0245392741-0.0187223386-0.038203802
-0.0060731122-0.05408684310.0181394502-0.0172429537-0.0091298369
-0.0151634037-0.03496795370.015702549-0.01278682050.0069174177
0.0033805985-0.03851632870.0219744044-0.0105247544-0.0098101392
-0.0128972989-0.00648396150.0195186007-0.0110805082-0.0070503868
-0.0119813885-0.00326487150.0205290426-0.0074629125-0.0082973724
-0.01208908830.00015204060.0212290415-0.0028506781-0.0135261771
g
e-p
r
m
s
5. DINMICA DEUDA / PIB: COMPONENTES 1988-1998
series hist.
series hist.
-0.021780556
0.0099963454
-0.0070782733
0.0247354298
-0.0224965016
-0.014503605
-0.0124339513
% PBI
Grrfico 5. COMPONENTES DEUDA MARGINAL 1991-1998
C1
0.0506665271
-0.0047060938
0.0065210944
0.0255219514
0.0089027594
0.0157934275
-0.0013666119
% PBI
COMPONENTES DEUDA MARGINAL 1999-2001
C2
0.2953845419
0.0669957504
0.0380639978
0.0446053069
0.1587593942
-0.0041771071
-0.0088628003
% PBI
COMPONENTES DEUDA MARGINAL 2002
C3
0.0032196327
0.0118878251
-0.0012556631
0.0524875876
-0.0221779374
-0.0100171772
-0.0277050024
% PBI
COMPONENTES DEUDA MARGINAL 1988-1990
C4
C4
0.0013086687
0.0313390845
0.0161367007
-0.0468228847
-0.048408341
-0.0407194785
-0.0264442728
-0.0060076472
0.0099689805
0.0189701474
0.0192809378
-0.0455719377
-0.1241994703
-0.1666820023
-0.0389122206
simple
GAP TRIBUTARIO DE MeP/ PIB t*-t
-0.0087584465
0.0015258849
-0.0187720158
-0.0786683915
-0.0710325462
-0.0476532079
-0.0206428647
-0.0198388956
-0.0102057641
-0.0040233632
-0.0021501784
0.0500598816
0.0452254132
0.0708325677
0.2283887915
simple
GAP PRIMARIO / PIB s*-s
456.0746879839
517.8923963627
262.7733384122
407.8141085851
852.1580670019
965.2712894298
891.9789171369
955.0826801704
784.7683949088
765.7413691334
988.2904511634
853.6362362596
666.4972984696
Brecha de Financiamiento ( - acumula RIN, + desacumula RIN)
Millones de dlares
BRECHA DE FINANCIAMIENTO
1120.184265428
664.1095774441
146.2171810814
-116.5561573308
-524.3702659159
-1376.5283329178
Stock de Activos
Millones de dlares
STOCK DE ACTIVOS
0.41774098410.2674309831
0.46403973180.3001788253
0.55601446040.359449135
0.92409086480.7631950565
1.0973332030.9282489988
1.14658609670.9817588921
1.11895551880.9549570058
1.07579126050.9094801911
1.04366950120.8740338026
1.01244750840.8387033309
0.98097038360.8028052514
0.95905880190.7758687794
0.936572050.7480466259
0.91381004590.7193797629
0.89001209120.6894274175
0.86479088990.6578869218
0.83867972530.6249280173
Deuda Bruta
Deuda Neta
1. DEUDA PBLICA BRUTA y NETA / PIB, 1999-2015
0.2674309831
0.3001788253
0.359449135
0.7631950565
0.9282489988
0.9817588921
0.9549570058
0.9094801911
0.8740338026
0.8387033309
0.8028052514
0.7758687794
0.7480466259
0.7193797629
0.6894274175
0.6578869218
0.6249280173
Deuda Neta
1. DEUDA PBLICA NETA / PIB, 1999-2015
-0.0455719377
-0.1241994703
-0.1666820023
-0.0389122206
0.2557899874
0.1041097883
-0.0029143724
-0.0372228199
-0.0240719991
-0.0263348213
-0.0296955538
-0.0145708401
-0.0158695492
-0.016838151
-0.0185385212
-0.0205300935
-0.0216157923
simple
GAP TRIBUTARIO DE MeP/ PIB t*-t
0.0500598816
0.0452254132
0.0708325677
0.2283887915
0.1353427445
0.0486302874
-0.0142120551
-0.0278106669
-0.0199927911
-0.0202160095
-0.021537138
-0.0145708401
-0.0158695492
-0.016838151
-0.0185385212
-0.0205300935
-0.0216157923
simple
GAP PRIMARIO / PIB s*-s
0.00918416320.00815234950.0199477955
0.00583092160.00774556620.0221718454
0.01557904440.02572859820.0286829207
0.05887935490.24557721890.04507297
0.02807563630.1019957970.0702275612
-0.03937798580.04167713070.0737143297
-0.0346191454-0.01884365390.0639100346
-0.0257467906-0.03924008210.0668727569
-0.025474574-0.02911890240.0680930206
-0.0247139356-0.0282494490.0684257409
-0.0239746036-0.02740434990.0674943297
-0.02322923-0.01770156340.0676229616
-0.0227103671-0.017306170.0671449535
-0.0221778842-0.01690039760.0670197988
-0.0216388834-0.01648965840.0661207995
-0.0210753514-0.01606022540.06486463
-0.0204781172-0.015605110.0640788373
g
e-p
r
3. DINMICA DEUDA/PIB: COMPONENTES MACRO 1999-2015
0.0199477955-0.00055716840.0179190268
0.0221718454-0.00452542880.0156652422
0.02868292070.00098276140.0137960135
0.04507297-0.0088628003-0.0041771071
0.0702275612-0.007-0.0200566563
0.0737143297-0.007-0.019760581
0.0639100346-0.007-0.0310778131
0.0668727569-0.007-0.0380501426
0.0680930206-0.007-0.0386213035
0.0684257409-0.007-0.0396843491
0.0674943297-0.007-0.040592501
0.0676229616-0.007-0.0416037499
0.0671449535-0.007-0.0426151683
0.0670197988-0.007-0.0437035211
0.0661207995-0.007-0.0447902125
0.06486463-0.007-0.0459502545
0.0640788373-0.007-0.0471067746
r
m
s
3. DINMICA DEUDA/PIB: COMPONENTES FISCALES 1999-2015
0.00575262280.00510633260.0199477955-0.00055716840.0179190268
0.00373286120.00495858550.0221718454-0.00452542880.0156652422
0.01007779920.01664336010.02868292070.00098276140.0137960135
0.03806399780.15875939420.04507297-0.0088628003-0.0041771071
0.01989509130.07227674830.0702275612-0.007-0.0200566563
-0.02871446490.03039100360.0737143297-0.007-0.019760581
-0.0259301543-0.01411412230.0639100346-0.007-0.0310778131
-0.0196639359-0.02996934540.0668727569-0.007-0.0380501426
-0.019814918-0.02264959020.0680930206-0.007-0.0386213035
-0.0195782902-0.02237911110.0684257409-0.007-0.0396843491
-0.0193363767-0.022102590.0674943297-0.007-0.040592501
-0.019063179-0.01452687290.0676229616-0.007-0.0416037499
-0.0189549422-0.01444439230.0671449535-0.007-0.0426151683
-0.0188159521-0.01433847660.0670197988-0.007-0.0437035211
-0.0186540258-0.01421508250.0661207995-0.007-0.0447902125
-0.0184130326-0.01403143640.06486463-0.007-0.0459502545
-0.0179268831-0.01366097190.0640788373-0.007-0.0471067746
g
e-p
r
m
s
Grfico 13. DINMICA DEUDA / PIB: COMPONENTES 1999-2015
-0.03975809440.0218390676-0.0179190268
-0.04105939530.0253941532-0.0156652422
-0.0431286470.0293326335-0.0137960135
-0.04042819980.04460530690.0041771071
-0.04090358560.06096024190.0200566563
-0.03923517240.05899575350.019760581
-0.03283222150.06391003460.0310778131
-0.02882261430.06687275690.0380501426
-0.02947171710.06809302060.0386213035
-0.02874139180.06842574090.0396843491
-0.02690182870.06749432970.040592501
-0.02601921170.06762296160.0416037499
-0.02452978520.06714495350.0426151683
-0.02331627770.06701979880.0437035211
-0.0213305870.06612079950.0447902125
-0.01891437560.064864630.0459502545
-0.01697206270.06407883730.0471067746
consolidado
intereses
primario
4. RESULTADO FISCAL / PIB, 1999-2015
0.0586302874
0.01
-0.0287144649
0.0737143297
0.0303910036
-0.019760581
-0.007
% PBI
COMPONENTES DEUDA MARGINAL 2004
-0.0216157923
0
-0.0179268831
0.0640788373
-0.0136609719
-0.0471067746
-0.007
% PBI
COMPONENTES DEUDA MARGINAL 2015
0.0806028036
0.1083613796
-0.2249710633
0.8755897543
-0.0937642396
-0.4936130274
-0.091
% PBI
COMPONENTES DEUDA MARGINAL 2002-2015
0.1453427445
0.01
0.0198950913
0.0702275612
0.0722767483
-0.0200566563
-0.007
% PBI
COMPONENTES DEUDA MARGINAL 2003
2. ALTERNATIVAS DE AJUSTE FISCAL
20032004200520062007200820092015
Benchmark1.7%2.3%3.0%3.6%3.6%3.8%3.9%4.5%
k=1%2.7%3.3%4.0%4.6%4.6%4.8%4.9%5.5%
k=2%3.7%4.3%5.0%5.6%5.6%5.8%5.9%6.5%
Memo: acuerdo FMI3.2%3.3%3.3%3.5%3.7%3.9%4.0%4.0%
0.41774098410.41774098410.41774098410.4177409841
0.46403973180.46403973180.46403973180.4640397318
0.55601446040.55601446040.55601446040.5560144604
0.92409086480.92409086480.92409086480.9240908648
1.1011853941.0911853941.0811853941.0865340962
1.06519273721.04512842591.02506424161.0400654419
1.0314597881.00108399940.97070833981.0033603623
0.97647543790.9361045250.89573374110.9491733833
0.94201286550.89078536410.83955799440.9136216646
0.90797499820.84557516640.78317546930.8775583173
0.87424070030.80032321990.72640587750.8416885857
0.84028700490.75449943110.66871199890.8065799714
0.8056683460.7076682760.60966835110.7710954914
0.77079557550.66014506040.54949469440.735291846
0.73515672740.61144042930.48772428430.6986740629
0.69882880620.56156124110.42429383350.6613042776
0.6613207230.51005858210.35879660330.6227101106
BENCHMARK
ajuste 1%
ajuste 2%
primario MEF
AJUSTE FISCAL Y DEUDA BRUTA
0.41774098410.41774098410.4177409841
0.46403973180.46403973180.4640397318
0.55601446040.55601446040.5560144604
0.92409086480.92409086480.9240908648
1.1011853941.0911853941.081185394
1.06519273721.04512842591.0250642416
1.0314597881.00108399940.9707083398
0.97647543790.9361045250.8957337411
0.94201286550.89078536410.8395579944
0.90797499820.84557516640.7831754693
0.87424070030.80032321990.7264058775
0.84028700490.75449943110.6687119989
0.8056683460.7076682760.6096683511
0.77079557550.66014506040.5494946944
0.73515672740.61144042930.4877242843
0.69882880620.56156124110.4242938335
0.6613207230.51005858210.3587966033
Benchmark
k=1%
k=2%
6. AJUSTE FISCAL Y DEUDA BRUTA
Deuda Pblica Bruta segn spreads (05/08/03)
19992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
fijos40.8%45.5%54.7%92.4%110.1%106.5%103.1%97.6%94.2%90.8%87.4%84.0%80.6%77.1%73.5%69.9%66.1%
variables - resultado fiscal40.8%45.5%54.7%92.4%112.7%115.1%111.3%105.9%101.5%97.3%93.1%89.8%86.5%83.1%79.6%76.1%72.4%
variables - Deuda Bruta40.8%45.5%54.7%92.4%113.2%116.5%113.6%109.1%105.7%102.4%99.2%96.9%94.6%92.3%90.0%87.6%85.1%
Tasa de inters promedio (US$) segn spreads (05/08/03)
19992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
fijos5.6%5.7%6.1%5.4%5.2%5.5%6.1%6.5%6.8%7.0%7.1%7.2%7.3%7.4%7.5%7.6%7.7%
variables - resultado fiscal5.6%5.7%6.1%5.4%5.4%5.8%6.3%6.7%6.9%7.1%7.2%7.3%7.3%7.4%7.5%7.6%7.6%
variables - Deuda Bruta5.6%5.7%6.1%5.4%6.0%6.8%7.4%7.8%8.0%8.2%8.3%8.4%8.4%8.6%8.6%8.7%8.7%
Intereses segn spreads (05/08/03)
19992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
fijos2.0%2.0%2.5%4.5%5.3%4.7%5.0%5.0%5.2%5.2%5.2%5.1%5.0%5.0%4.9%4.8%4.6%
variables - resultado fiscal2.0%2.0%2.5%4.5%5.6%5.3%5.6%5.5%5.6%5.6%5.5%5.5%5.4%5.3%5.2%5.1%5.0%
variables - Deuda Bruta2.0%2.0%2.5%4.5%6.2%6.1%6.5%6.6%6.7%6.7%6.7%6.8%6.7%6.8%6.7%6.7%6.6%
Deuda Pblica Bruta adicional (05/08/03)
19992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
variables - resultado fiscal2.6%8.6%8.2%8.3%7.3%6.5%5.6%5.8%5.9%6.0%6.1%6.2%6.3%
variables - Deuda Bruta3.1%9.9%10.5%11.5%11.5%11.6%11.7%12.9%14.0%15.2%16.5%17.7%19.0%
Intereses adicionales (05/08/03)
19992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
variables - resultado fiscal0.3%0.6%0.5%0.5%0.4%0.4%0.3%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.4%
variables - Deuda Bruta0.9%1.4%1.5%1.6%1.5%1.5%1.5%1.6%1.7%1.8%1.9%1.9%2.0%
&L&F&C&A&R&D
0.02553007470.0233
0.03354433570.0340614637
0.03387963750.0352149398
0.03441281470.0372201527
0.03371699950.0455819749
0.03383949050.0499461227
0.03340959610.0512294224
0.03175976910.0508892353
0.0307266270.0501033842
0.03089387910.0495911956
0.03070569860.04908378
0.03023170450.0485476116
0.03000428360.0482520407
0.0296205080.0479243852
0.02930782760.0475742905
0.02879618130.0471795474
0.02817360410.0467291433
A. dficit
B. deuda
SPREADS ENDGENOS (%)
0.40767450630.40767450630.4076745063
0.4549138099
