Solar process heat: the IEA scenarios - Sunti - … · Solar process heat: the IEA scenarios ......

© OECD/IEA 2015

Solar process heat: the IEA scenarios

Cédric Philibert

Renewable Energy Division

International Energy Agency

SHIP 2015 – Montpellier – 15 September 2015

© OECD/IEA 2014 Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report 2014

Renewable electricity projected to scale up by 45% from 2013 to 2020

Strong momentum for renewable electricity

Global renewable electricity production, historical and projected

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

5001 0001 5002 0002 5003 0003 5004 0004 5005 0005 5006 0006 5007 0007 500

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

TW

h

Hydropower Bioenergy Onshore wind

Offshore wind Solar PV Geothermal

STE/CSP Ocean % total generation (right axis)

Historical data and estimates Forecast

Natural gas

2013Nuclear

2013


Renewable heat use grows slowly

World renewable energy use for heat rose ~1.5% per year between 2007 and 2013 – ~2.5% per year for modern technologies.

Global renewable energy use for heat is projected to grow from ~46 EJ in 2013 to ~49 EJ in 2020 (~1% per year).

Use of modern renewable energy technologies for heat continues to grow from ~14 EJ in 2013 to ~18 EJ in 2020 (~3% per year), providing 9% of world final energy use for heat in 2020.

.

World final renewable energy use for heat (including commercial heat) 2007-20

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2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

% r

enew

able h

eat

EJ

Geothermal Solar thermal Bioenergy (modern)

Bioenergy (traditional) RE-H % of total heat (right axis) Modern RE-H % of total heat (right axis)


Policy support still limited

Broader adoption of support policies for renewable heat could reduce energy consumption and enhance energy security

Low oil prices likely more detrimental to renewable heat

Countries with targets and support policies for renewable heat

This map is without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area.

© OECD/IEA 2014

But stakes are high

© OECD/IEA 2015 5

Direct energy-related CO2 emissions from industry

second to power (2014)

© OECD/IEA 2014

Fossil fuels dominate industrial energy use

© OECD/IEA 2015 6

Final energy demand by

sub-sectors

Final industrial energy supply by

sources

© OECD/IEA 2014

Solar heat for industry is not a new concept

1907,

Egypt

(Shuman)

2014,

Morocco

(Italcementi)

http://renewablebook.files.wordpress.com/2010/09/solarengineshuman2.jpeg

http://renewablebook.files.wordpress.com/2010/09/solarengineshuman2.jpeg

© OECD/IEA 2014

Solar heat for industry is not a new concept

1949,

France

(F. Trombe)

© OECD/IEA 2010 © IEA/OECD 2010

Markets: industry

Large heat needs at various temperature levels in industry and services;

Low-temp. solar heat available everywhere, demand all year round

High-temp. solar heat under hot and dry climates

Estimated industrial heat

demand by temperature

range in Europe, 2003

© O

ECD

/IEA

, 20

11

Sou

rce: Wern

er, 20

05

-20

06

PJ

© OECD/IEA 2010 © IEA/OECD 2010

Source: AEE INTEC. Source: Deepak Gadhia

Solar water heaters in a service area (Austria) Cooking with Scheffler dishes (India)

Source: SolarWall.

Solar air drying of coffee beans (Columbia)Experimental mid-size industrial solar oven (France)

Source: Four Solaire Développement.

© OECD/IEA 2015

Solar ovens for artworks Potteries from Safi (Morocco) cooked in the solar oven

at Mont-Louis (French Pyrenees)

© OECD/IEA 2015

Roadmap vision of solar heating and cooling

Solar heating and cooling capacity could produce annually by 2050: - 16.5 EJ solar heat (16% of TFE low temp. heat)

- Of which, >7 EJ of low-temp. solar industrial process heat- 1.5 EJ solar cooling (17% of TFE cooling)

7.2 EJ/a

8.9 EJ/a

1.5 EJ/a

0.4 EJ/a

Source: IEA Technology Roadmap – Solar Heating & Cooling

© OECD/IEA 2014

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2012 2020 2030 2040 2050

Mt

CO

2

6DS

4DS

2DS

Global industrial direct CO2

emissions and final energy use

NOTE: Direct energy related and process CO2 emissions from the industrial sector are included

NOTES: Industrial final energy excludes energy embedded in petrochemical feedstock. Bio & Waste also includes other renewable sources apart from biomass.

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2012 2DS: 2050 2012 2DS: 2050 2012 2DS: 2050

World OECD Developing Asia

EJ

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Non-OECD America Economies inTransition

Africa Middle East

EJ

Bio&Waste

Heat

Electricity

Gas

Oil

Coal

© OECD/IEA 2014

Coal28%

Oil11%

Gas19%

Electricity 29%

Heat4%

Bio&Waste9%

Global industrial final

energy use mix

NOTES: In this presentation,

• Industrial final energy excludes energy embedded in petrochemical feedstock.

• Bio & Waste also includes other renewable sources apart from biomass.

Coal36%

Oil11%

Gas18%

Electricity 24%

Heat4%

Bio&Waste7%

2012

6DS: 2050

2DS: 2050

Coal22%

Oil9%

Gas15%

Electricity

33%

Heat4%

Bio&Waste

17%

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100%

Pchem feedstock

Biomass

Gas

Oil

Coal

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100%

Pchem feedstock

Biomass

Gas

Oil

Coal

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Pchem feedstock

Biomass

Gas

Oil

Coal

© OECD/IEA 2014

Iron & Steel sector:

Renewable main options

Charcoal based Blast Furnaces

Electric Arc Furnaces based on renewable electricity

Iron ore reduction supported with hydrogen from renewable sources

Renewable based captive utilities

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2012 2020 2030 2040 2050

GtC

O2

Energy efficiency

Natural gas - DRI

Recycling (increased scrap use)

Innovative processes

Direct CO2 emission savings 2DS vs 6DS

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100%

2012 2DS: 2050 2012 2DS: 2050 2012 2DS: 2050 2012 2DS: 2050 2012 2DS: 2050 2012 2DS: 2050 2012 2DS: 2050

World OECD Developing Asia Non-OECD America Economies inTransition

Africa Middle East

Biomass&Waste

Heat

Electricity

Gas

Oil

Coal

© OECD/IEA 2014

Cement sector: Renewable

main options

Fuel switching


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GtC

O2

Energy efficiency

Fuel switching

Clinker substitutes

Innovative processes

Direct CO2 emission savings 2DS vs 6DS

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2012 2DS: 2050 2012 2DS: 2050 2012 2DS: 2050 2012 2DS: 2050 2012 2DS: 2050 2012 2DS: 2050 2012 2DS: 2050


Africa Middle East

Biomass&Waste

Heat

Electricity

Gas

Oil

Coal

© OECD/IEA 2014

Chemicals/Petrochemicals sector:


Biomass based routes for olefins production (e.g. bioethanol route, MTO route)

Biomass based routes for ammonia and methanol production

Ammonia and methanol productions supported by renewable based hydrogen


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2012 2DS: 2050 2012 2DS: 2050 2012 2DS: 2050 2012 2DS: 2050 2012 2DS: 2050 2012 2DS: 2050 2012 2DS: 2050


Africa Middle East

Biomass&Waste

Heat

Electricity

Gas

Oil

Coal

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100%

2012 2DS: 2050 2012 2DS: 2050 2012 2DS: 2050 2012 2DS: 2050 2012 2DS: 2050 2012 2DS: 2050 2012 2DS: 2050


Africa Middle East

Biomass

Gas

Oil

Coal

Final energy use mix in Chemicals/Petrochemicals sector (excl. feedstocks)

Petrochemicals feedstocks mix

© OECD/IEA 2014

Pulp & Paper sector:


Bio-refinery developments: biomass based routes for chemicals and fuels production


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2012 2DS: 2050 2012 2DS: 2050 2012 2DS: 2050 2012 2DS: 2050 2012 2DS: 2050 2012 2DS: 2050 2012 2DS: 2050


Africa Middle East

Biomass&Waste

Heat

Electricity

Gas

Oil

Coal

© OECD/IEA 2014

Non-energy intensive industrial

sector: Renewable main options

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g C

O2

/kW

h

6DS

4DS

2DS

Industrial operations based on renewable electricity

Renewable based captive utilities (e.g. opportunities for solar thermal for lower temperature heat demand applications and possible upgrade through heat pumps)

© OECD/IEA 2014

Manufacting industries use ~ 30% of global energy

40% including feedstock, blast furnace and coke oven

Fossil fuels energy sources, feedstock, processing agents…

Some CO2 emissions linked to processes (e.g. steel, cement)

Demand would grow until 2050

by 83% in the 6DS scenario (ETP 2014)

By 40% in the 2DS scenario

Some substitution would occur

Biomass would grow from 6% to day to 13% in 2050 (2DS)

Electricity would grow from 24% today to 32% in 2050 (2DS)

A new in-depth technology study

© OECD/IEA 2015 21

© OECD/IEA 2014

How to increase the use of RE in industry?

© OECD/IEA 2015 22

How to increase the use of RE as in 2DS or beyond?

For energy, feedstock, process agents…

Using biomass, solar heat, geothermal…

Hydrogen from renewables

(mostly) Renewable power, self-generated or from the grid

Electrification of industry help integrate more variable RE


To conclude – where are the largest solar thermal systems

2011-12: University buildings, Riyadh, KSA, 25 MWth, 36 000 m2

2013: Copper recovery, Pampa Elvira, Chile, 27 MWth, 39 300 m2

2014: District heating, Vojens, Denmark, 37 MWth, 52 500 m2

2017: Industry, Mirrah, Oman, 1021 MWth, 3 million m2

Princess Nora Bint Abdul Rahman University in Riyadh


Mirrah, Oman, forthcoming

Parabolic

troughs

protected

from

soiling

…in a greenhouse

(Glasspoint technology)


Mirrah, Oman, forthcoming

…saving 1600 GWhth gas, and 300 000 tCO2 a year

6000 t steam per day for enhanced oil recovery


The IEA Technology roadmap for solar

heating and cooling: http://goo.gl/EtNX2J

The IEA Solar Heating and Cooling Initiative:

http://www.iea-shc.org/

Task 49 of the Solar Heating and Cooling

Initiative (common with the SolarPACES

Initiative): http://task49.iea-shc.org/

The Solar Heat for Industrial Processes

database: http://ship-plants.info/

Renewable Energies for Manufacturing

Industries: https://goo.gl/zqodvI

For more information

http://goo.gl/EtNX2J

http://www.iea-shc.org/

http://task49.iea-shc.org/

http://ship-plants.info/

https://goo.gl/zqodvI

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