Interim results IEA technology roadmap - European … · Interim results IEA technology roadmap:...

© OECD/IEA 2010

Dr Milou BeerepootDr Milou Beerepoot

Senior analyst, International Energy Agency Senior analyst, International Energy Agency

Interim resultsInterim resultsIEA technology roadmap: IEA technology roadmap: geothermal heat and power geothermal heat and power

© OECD/IEA 2010 © IEA/OECD 2010

Share of non-hydro renewables in electricity production of IEA countries

Between 1990 and 2009, total electricity production from geothermal remained stable, reaching a 0.3% generation share in 2009

Source: IEA, 2010


Key technologies for reducing global CO2emissions

A wide range of technologies will be necessary to reduce energy-related CO2 emissions

BLUE Map scenario: 50% CO2 reduction by 2050

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Gt C

O2

CCS 19%

Renewables 17%

Nuclear 6%

Power generation efficiency and fuel switching 5%End-use fuel switching 15%

End-use fuel and electricity efficiency 38%

BLUE Map emissions 14 Gt

Baseline emissions 57 Gt

WEO 2009 450 ppmcase ETP2010 analysis Source: IEA, 2010 (ETP 2010)


IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2010: Growth of renewable power generation in the BLUE Map scenario (2050)

Geothermal power generation BLUE Map 2050: 1005 TWh

Source: IEA, 2010


IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2010

6.12%

31.82%

1.13%5.62%

6.47%12.34%

5.47%

7.21%

23.82%

Africa Other Developing Asia India

China Central and South America Economies in Transition

OECD Pacific OECD Europe OECD North America

Geothermal power generation Blue Map 2050: 1005 TWh Geothermal power generation High-REN 2050: 1411 TWh

Blue Map scenario, shares per region


©O

ECD

/IEA

200

9

At the request of G8 Heads of State/Government Based on scenario to halve CO2 emissions by 2050 Create technical, policy, legal, financial, and public

acceptance milestones and priority near-term actions Roadmaps published:

CCS, electric vehicles, wind, cement sector, solar PV, concentrating solar power, nuclear power

Forthcoming roadmaps : smart grids, biofuels, EE buildings , geothermal energy for heat and power, bioenergy for heat and power, solar heating and cooling…

How do we get there from here? Energy Technology Roadmaps


What is an energy technology roadmap?

GW/TWh

2011 20xx

Goals

Gaps and barriers

Action items

Priorities & timelines

Source: Adjusted from (IEA, 2010)


Stakeholders consulted

Three workshops, over 100 participants

Involvement IEA Geothermal Impl. Agreement

Involvement European Geothermal Energy

Council (EGEC)

Involvement International Geothermal

Association

Involvement authors of IPCC Special Report

Renewable Energy, Geothermal chapter


Geothermal heat and power today

121.7

50.1

Total capacity (GWel), (GWth) and produced energy (TWhel), (TWhth) 2009

Source: (W. Weiss, 2010) complemented with geothermal heat from (Lund, 2010)


Geothermal resources, part 1

Least favourable Most favourable

Most well known geothermal resources: high temperature hydrothermal resources, often tectonic plate boundaries

Source: (Hamza et al., 2008) used with kind permission from Springer Science+Business Media B.V.


Geothermal resources, part 2

Deep sedimentary basins: widespread availability & increasing interest to use resources for both heat and power

Source: TNO, 2010


And …. geothermal resources, part 3

Hot rock resources: nearly ubiquitous availability, offering thepromise of a site independent renewable power technology

Source: NREL, 2010


Geothermal roadmap

Technologies included in roadmap:

Hydrothermal: high temperatures (flash plants)

Hydrothermal: low temperatures (binary plants)

Hot rock resources: EGS (mainly binary plants)

Technologies excluded in roadmap:

Ground source heat pumps

Alternative technologies discussed, but not included in projections


Vision for geothermal power 2050

Geothermal electricity capacity could reach 200 gigawatts by 2050, providing 1400 TWh per year (3.5% of electricity production): ETP 2010 Blue Map Hi-REN scenario

Draft IEA geothermal roadmap, March ‘11


Vision for geothermal heat 2050(heat pumps excluded)

Geothermal heat could contribute to 5.8 EJ annually by 2050 (heat demand EU today = 22.5 EJ)



Technological challenges

Geological data & improvement exploration methods needed (potential mapping and risk reduction)

Drilling technology development and costs reduction needed

Geothermal should benefit from its potential to offer both power and heat



Geological data mapping and geosciences exploration methods

Underground temperature in Germany at 2500 m below sea level (screenshot from www.geotis.de)


Technological challenges

Development of advanced technologies exploiting hot rock resources (e.g. EGS) is essential to realize roadmap vision

Improving EGS technology and address environmental issues is crucial

Explore potential alternative hot rock and hydrothermal technologies



Advanced geothermal technology: EGS

Source: animation from Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) , US Department of Energy /www.eere.energy.gov


Advanced geothermal technology : EGS

Projection for 2050 assumes EGS to become commercially viable soon after 2030

In the next 10 years, many more EGS pilot plants of 10 MW needed (currently 10)

In the longer term, up scaling of plants to 50 to 200+ MW at single site

EGS offers the promise of a site independent renewable power base load technology


Status quo geothermal policies

Policies for high enthalpy hydrothermal in place (e.g. renewables obligations) or not needed

Europe (mainly binary): policy incentives not completely developed (FIT in some EU countries)

Insufficient policy incentives for geothermal direct heat, e.g. geothermal district heating

Specific challenges geothermal to be addressed in policies


Policy framework: actions & milestones


Set long-term targets for geothermal electricity and heat

Introduce market facilitation schemes: transparent and predictable framework

Consider introducing market facilitation schemes for geothermal heat use

Introduce streamlined and time-effective permit procedures

Develop and use protocol for community support for EGS


Policy framework: actions & milestonesDraft IEA geothermal roadmap, March ‘11

Consider guarantee schemes for geothermal exploration risks

Enhance training, education and awareness for skilled workforce

Increase and sustain public RD&D funding Expand international R&D collaboration Develop mechanisms to support geothermal

deployment in developing countries Encourage multilateral development banks

(MDBs) to target clean energy deployment


Conclusions

Global geothermal power: 1400 TWh in 2050

Global geothermal heat: 5.8 EJ in 2050

Deployment of hot rock resources is essential for realizing this vision (commercial after 2030)

EGS is still in demonstration phase: in the next 10 years, many more EGS pilot plants needed

In order to do so, substantial more R&D needed

More awareness and information is needed for different types of geothermal resources

More awareness is needed for potential of geothermal heat

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