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Employment and labour mobility of youth and older age groups in the EU

Jan Behrens European Commission, DG Employment, Social Affairs and InclusionVilnius, 12 May 2015

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The EU Economy recovers modestly reaching pre-crisis levels

Employment levels still below pre-crisis

Source: Eurostat, National AccountsNote: DG EMPL calculations for GDHI

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Source: Eurostat, LFS, data non-seasonally adjusted.

Change in employment in the EU, by age

Recent labour market trends Age group trends in employment show increases for all - still mainly the older workers

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EU

28

EA

19 SE

DE

NL

UK

DK EE

CZ

AT

LU FI LT LV FR CY

PT SI

IE BE

HU PL

SK

MT

BG

RO ES IT HR EL

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

7069

8078

77777675

7474737272

7170

6868686868686767666665

616059

53

EU Target

% o

f popula

tion 2

0-6

4

Employment rates in EU member states, 2014 q 4

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Employment rate in EU; by age, gender and education 2014 Q 4

15-6

4

20-6

4

15-1

9

20-2

4

25-2

9

30-3

4

35-3

9

40-4

4

45-4

9

50-5

4

55-5

9

60-6

4

65-6

9

70-7

4

Men

Wom

en

Low

Mediu

m

Hig

h

Total Age Gender (20-64)

Education level (25-64)

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

6570

15

49

7278 80 80 80 77

66

38

126

75

64

53

74

84

0.9 0.90.5

0.9 1.0 0.90.6

0.3 0.3

0.9 1.0

2.2

0.30.1

0.8 0.90.6

0.80.4

2008Q4 2013Q4 2014Q4 change 2013Q4-2014Q4Employment rate (%)

Year-on-year change (pp)

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Employment rate by age and educational attainment level in 2013, %

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

All ISCED 2011levels

Low MEDIUM HIGH

20 to 64 years

55 to 64 years

Educationalprogression

EU28

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Working age Active population Active Population, Active Population, Past em-popul. (age 20-64) Low activity scenario High activity scenario Education Effect ployment

Source: Own calculations based on Eurostat EU LFS and Eurostat Europop 2013 population projection

186

206

226

246

266

286

306

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

2032

2034

2036

2038

2040

millions

65.0

70.0

75.0

80.0

85.0

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

2032

2034

2036

2038

2040

% of Working Age Population (20-64 years)

EU28

Active pop, LOW scen.

Active pop, HIGH scen.

Shrinking working age population- potential employment paths

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Source: Eurostat, series on unemployment, seasonally-adjusted data

Unemployment rates - total (left axis) and youth (right axis), EU and EA

UnemploymentUnemployment in the EU slowly recedes from high levels followed for the first time by a mild reduction in long-term unemployment

Long-term unemployment in the EU

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EU citizens working in other EU Member States

Around 8 million econ. active EU citizens living in another MS in 2013 (3.3% of the labour force)

But remains below number of econ. active third-country nationals (10.6 millions or 4.3%) …and ten times lower than in the USA

Sharp increase in mobility since 2004 (enlargement), but falling since crisis

Mainly driven by job opportunities/ higher wages in host country

Shifting age patterns

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Labour mobility

• Economic benefits of freedom of movement of workers: broader economic opportunities, matching labour supply with demand, job creation, dissemination of knowledge and innovation

• Some risks: If geographically or sectorally concentrated (eg health professionals leaving)

• Mobility package (expected by end 2015): • Analyse and report objectively on mobility flows• Prevent errors, abuse and fraud• Adapt current provisions (eg coordination of social security)

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European Employment Strategy

• TFEU Title IX: Employment

• -The European Employment Strategy (EES)• - Europe 2020 and the European Semester

for economic policy coordination• • - The 2012 Employment Package

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The Open Method of Coordination

Joint Employment Report

EmploymentGuidelines

Country specific recommendations

2. European Council'sConclusions approves JER

1. Commission drafts:

3. Council of Ministers of Employment (EPSCO) issues:

4. Member States draw:

6. Commission evaluates NRPs and proposes recommendations

7. Council adopts:

National reform programmes

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Employment Guidelines 2010-2014

GL 7 Increasing labour market participation of women and men, reducing structural unemployment and promoting job quality

GL 8 Developing a skilled workforce responding to labour market needs and promoting lifelong learning

GL 9 Improving the quality and performance of education and training systems at all levels and increasing participation in tertiary or

equivalent education GL 10 Promoting social inclusion and combating

poverty

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Youth unemployment rate, EU MS, February 2015

Situation for youth (15-24 y)Unemployment declined, but remains high,considerable differences across the EU prevail

Youth unemployment rate, February 2015 and lowest and highest rates since 2008

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Key challenges for youth

Both cyclical and structural factors

• Performance of education and training

• Availability of quality work experience

• Labour market segmentation

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Youth Guarantee Council Recommendation of 22 April 2013: Member

States

ensure that all young people up to 25 receive a good-quality offer of

employment, continued education, an apprenticeship or a traineeship

within four months of becoming unemployed or leaving formal education

PES: Central YG provider

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Council Declaration on a European Alliance for Apprenticeships

Council Recommendation: Quality Framework for Traineeships

Mobility for young people

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Youth

2014 CSRs target mainly:

1.Youth Guarantee reference:BG, ES, HR, IE, IT, PL, PT, SK

2.Youth Guarantee related reformsBE, BG, CZ, ES, FR, HR, HU, IE, IT, LT, PL, PT, RO, SE, SI, SK

3.Reach out to NEETs: BG, ES, HU, HR,

IT, LV, PL, PT, RO, SE, SI, SK

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Older workers: challenges Labour supply- Declining working-age population calls for

higher employment rates ('productivity squeeze')

Sustainability and adequacy of pensions –

Duration of working lives, gender gaps

Eurobarometer 2011: barriers to employment

Active Ageing and creating an age friendly work environment

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Active ageing –Guiding principles EMCO/ SPC

a) Removing disincentives in tax-benefit structures and remuneration

b) Age management in work places and labour markets• -Providing access to life-long learning and career

counselling• - Promoting healthy ageing at workc) Work life balances-Broad range of policy domains. Key role of social partners

Active Ageing Index

20

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Extending working lifesDuration of working life (years, 2012) and employment rate of older workers (%, 2013)

Source: Eurostat

2014 CSRs target mainly on:

1. Keeping people longer in labour market:AT, BE, BG, CZ, DE, FI, HR, LT, LU, MT, NL, PL, SI

2. Enhancing older workers' employability:AT, BE, BG, CZ, FI, FR, LT, LU, NL, PL, RO, SI

3. Sustainability/adequacy pension system:AT, CZ, DE, HR, PT

4. Harmonisation of retirement age men and women:AT, BG, HR, RO

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Thank you ! For more details….

Please consult DG EMPL websitehttp://ec.europa.eu/social/home.jsp?langId=en

On Europe 2020

http://ec.europa.eu/europe2020/making-it-happen/country-specific-recommendations/index_en.htm