European Commission Employment & Social Affairs Employment & European Social Fund The Employment...

European Commission

Employment & Social Affairs

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The Employment Strategy The Employment Strategy and the Lisbon Agendaand the Lisbon Agenda

- - The way towards more and better jobs? -The way towards more and better jobs? -

Luc Tholoniat

European Commission -DG Employment, Social Affairsand Equal Opportunities

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• The EES: a complement to other EU instruments(annual guidelines, recommendations and action plans since 1997)

• A key pillar of the Lisbon Agenda since 2000

• 2002 impact evaluation and 2003 "Kok report"

• 2005: Mid-term review of the Lisbon Agenda

The EES and the Lisbon AgendaThe EES and the Lisbon Agenda

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• observed progress stopped in 2001/2002

• some evidence of structural "improvements"

• impact on national policies: focus on employment growth;

move towards an active and preventive approach; role of human

capital; quality and productivity at work; gender equality; employment-

friendly reforms of tax/benefits; role of public employment services; use

of indicators and targets; monitoring and evaluation; etc.

… but no room for complacency

Main lessons since 1997Main lessons since 1997

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60.0

62.0

64.0

66.0

68.0

70.0

72.0

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

EU25

EU15

70%

DataAutumn forecast

%

Sources: Eurostat and Commission's Autumn forecast.

Necessary path to the 2010 targetNecessary path to the 2010 target

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GDP, employment and labour productivity growthGDP, employment and labour productivity growth

1991-1996 1997-2000 2001-2003 1991-2003

EU15 US EU15 US EU15 US EU15 US

1. GDP 1.5 3.3 3.2 4.1 1.0 2.5 2.0 3.2

2. Employment -0.4 1.6 1.9 2.1 0.4 -0.5 0.6 1.2

3. Labour productivity (31-2)

1.9 1.7 1.3 2.0 0.6 2.9 1.4 2.0

4. Hours worked per employed (a)

-0.3 0.3 -0.6 0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 0.3

5. Hourly labour productivity (53-4)

2.2 1.3 1.9 1.4 1.1 3.3 1.8 1.7

Sources: DG‑ECFIN's Ameco database and the Groningen Growth and Development Centre (GGDC).a) GGDC data are used to calculate average annual hours worked per employee.

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• Why a decline in labour productivity growth compared to the US?

- slowdown in business investment growth- deterioration in total factor productivity growth

• What hampers economic growth in the EU?- domestic demand- global imbalances

more and better jobs: not just a labour market issue

Is the labour market the main culprit?Is the labour market the main culprit?

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nd Pace of progress

since 1997

Rates in 2003 (%)

Low Close to average High

> 70 DK SE, UK NL

65-70 AT, CY, DE, PT FI, IE

< 65CZ, EE, LT, MT,

PL, SI, SKBE, EL, FR, LU,

LVES, HU, IT

Overall employment rates (cont.)Overall employment rates (cont.)

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nd Pace of progress

since 1997

Rates in 2003 (%)


> 60 DK AT, FI, PT, SE, UK CY, NL

55-60 CZ, EE, LT, SI DE, FR, LV IE

< 55 MT, PL, SK BE, EL, HU ES, IT, LU

Female employment rates (cont.)Female employment rates (cont.)

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nd Pace of progress

since 1997

Rates in 2003 (%)


> 50 CY, EE PT, SE DK, UK

40-50 EL CZ, ES, LT FI, IE, LV, NL

< 40AT, DE, PL, SI,

SKBE, IT, LU, MT FR, HU

Employment rate of older workers (55-64) (cont.)Employment rate of older workers (55-64) (cont.)

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Annual growth rate of real GDP per person (1997-2003)

GDP per person employed in ppp in 2003 (EU25=100)

Low Median High

≥ 110 ITAT, FI, BE, FR,

LU, NLIE

75-110 ES DE, DK, SE, UK CY, EL, MT

50-75 PTCZ, HU, PL,

SI, SK

≤ 50 EE, LV, LT

Labour productivity growth and levels

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Areas of reforms (1)Areas of reforms (1)

Areas where policy response is most visible

• "Making work pay" (tax/benefits reforms)

• Reforming public employment services

• Designing and reviewing lifelong learning strategies

• Facilitating business creation and development

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Areas where policy response is mixed

• Ensuring employment-friendly wages and other labour costs

• Promoting flexibility combined with security in the labour market, but risks of segmentation persist

• Promoting childcare to increase female participation

• Strengthening active labour market policies, but efforts seem insufficient with rising unemployment, esp. of young people

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Areas where policy response is weak

• Developing active ageing strategies

• Improving the level, effectiveness and sharing of investment in human capital, including reducing early school-leaving and increasing participation in training of the low-skilled

• Addressing the gender pay gap

• Tackling undeclared work

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The new Lisbon Agenda (1)The new Lisbon Agenda (1)

Key challenges for the EU

(cf. also Commission's Social Agenda of 9/2/2005)

•Anticipating, triggering & absorbing economic change

•Demographic trends and ageing

•Diversity of performances in the enlarged EU

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Three main objectives

• Make Europe a more attractive place to invest and work

• Support knowledge and innovation for growth

• Create more and better jobs (i.e. full employment; quality and productivity at work; social and territorial cohesion)

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Key priorities for action

• attract and retain more people in employment and modernise social protection systems

• improve the adaptability of workers and enterprises and the functioning of the labour market

• invest more in human capital through better education and skills

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Next steps

• Spring European Council (March 2005)

• Integrated Guidelines Package (Broad Economic Policy Guidelines and Employment Guidelines)

• National Lisbon Programmes (Autumn 2005)

• EU Lisbon report (January 2006)

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More informationMore information

Commission's Employment, Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities website:

http://europa.eu.int/comm/employment_social/index_en.htm

European Commission Employment & Social Affairs Employment & European Social Fund The Employment...

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