Smoothed stationary bootstrap bandwidth selection for density...

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Smoothed stationary bootstrap bandwidth selection for density estimation with dependent data Ricardo Cao MODES group, University of A Coru˜ na (Spain) Joint work with In´ es Barbeito Cal Galician Seminar of Nonparametric Statistical Inference, June 8, 2016 R. Cao SSB bandwidth selection GSNSI, June 8, 2016 1 / 81

Transcript of Smoothed stationary bootstrap bandwidth selection for density...

Page 1: Smoothed stationary bootstrap bandwidth selection for density …eio.usc.es/pub/gsnsi/descargas/Cao_GSNSI.pdf · 2016-06-08 · Smoothed stationary bootstrap bandwidth selection for

Smoothed stationary bootstrap bandwidth selection fordensity estimation with dependent data

Ricardo CaoMODES group, University of A Coruna (Spain)

Joint work with Ines Barbeito Cal

Galician Seminar of Nonparametric Statistical Inference,June 8, 2016

R. Cao SSB bandwidth selection GSNSI, June 8, 2016 1 / 81

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Index

1 Introduction and BackgroundAimsSmoothed Bootstrap iid caseBootstrap methods for dependent data

2 Already existing smoothing parameter selectors3 Bootstrap bandwidth selector under independence4 Smooth Stationary Bootstrap under dependence5 Smooth Moving Blocks Bootstrap under dependence6 Simulations7 Real data application8 Conclusions9 References

10 Contact info

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Motivation & Background Aims

Setup and aims

General dependent data, {Xt}t∈Z: stationary, α-mixing, φ-mixing, . . .Nonparametric Parzen-Rosenblatt kernel density estimation

fh(x) = 1nh

n∑i=1

K

(x−Xi

h

)= 1n

n∑i=1

Kh(x−Xi)

Smooth bootstrap methodsBandwidth (h) selection

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Motivation & Background Smoothed Bootstrap iid case

Smoothed bootstrap for independent data

Consider some statistic of interest: R(→X,F

)Smoothed bootstrap algorithm

1 Using the sample (X1, . . . , Xn) and the bandwidth h > 0, compute fh2 Draw bootstrap resamples

→X∗= (X∗1 , . . . , X∗n) from fh

3 Obtain the bootstrap version of the statistic: R∗ = R

( →X∗, Fh

)4 Repeat Steps 1-3, B times to obtain R∗(1), . . . , R∗(B)

5 Use the values R∗(1), . . . , R∗(B) to approximate the samplingdistribution of R.

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Motivation & Background Smoothed Bootstrap iid case

How to draw from fh?

Considering two independent random variables: Y ∼ Fn and U withdensity K, it is easy to prove that Y + hU has density fhDrawing resamples from fh

1 Draw naive bootstrap resamples→

XNAIV E∗= (XNAIV E∗1 , . . . , XNAIV E∗

n ) from Fn

2 Draw a sample→U= (U1, . . . , Un) from the density K

3 Obtain the smoothed bootstrap resample→X∗= (X∗1 , . . . , X∗n), where

X∗i = XNAIV E∗i + hUi

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Motivation & Background Dependent data: bootstrap methods

Moving Blocks Bootstrap (MBB)

MBB algorithmKunsch (1989), Liu and Singh (1992)

1 Fix the block lenght, b ∈ N, and define k = min`∈N ` ≥ nb

2 Define:Bi,b = (Xi, Xi+1, . . . , Xi+b−1)

3 Draw ξ1, ξ2, . . . , ξk with uniform discrete distribution on{B1, B2, . . . , Bq}, with q = n− b+ 1

4 Define→X∗ as the vector formed by the first n components of

(ξ1,1, ξ1,2, . . . , ξ1,b, ξ2,1, ξ2,2 . . . , ξ2,b, . . . , ξk,1, ξk,2, . . . , ξk,b)

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Motivation & Background Dependent data: bootstrap methods

Stationary Bootstrap (SB)

SB algorithmPolitis and Romano (1994a)

1 Draw X∗1 from Fn

2 Once obtained X∗i = Xj , for some j ∈ {1, 2, . . . , n− 1}, i < n, defineX∗i+1 as follows:

X∗i+1 = Xj+1 (if j = n, Xj+1 = X1), with probability 1− pX∗i+1 is drawn from Fn with probability p

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Motivation & Background Dependent data: bootstrap methods

SubsamplingSubsampling algorithm (for dependent data)Politis and Romano (1994b)

1 Consider a dependent data sample (X1, . . . , Xn) with marginaldistribution F and θ = θ(F )

2 An estimator Tn = Tn(X1, . . . , Xn) of θ = θ(F ) is considered and

Jn(u, F ) = P (τn(Tn − θ) ≤ u)

3 Fix some b ∈ N such that b < n and define:

Sn,i = Tb(Bi,b), i = 1, 2, . . . , N, where N = n− b+ 1.

4 Use:

Ln(x) = 1N

N∑i=1

111{τb(Sn,i−Tn)≤x}

to approximate the sampling distribution of τn(Tn − θ):R. Cao SSB bandwidth selection GSNSI, June 8, 2016 8 / 81

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Already existing bandwidth selectors

Plug-in method under dependence (PI)Hall, Lahiri and Truong (1995)

Minimizing in h the asymptotic MISE:

AMISE(h) = 1nhR(K) + 1

4h4µ2

2R(f ′′)− h6 124µ2µ4R(f ′′′)

+ 1n

(2n−1∑i=1

(1− i

n

)∫gi(x, x)dx−R(f)

).

results in hAMISE =(J1n

)1/5+ J2

(J1n

)3/5, with

gi(x1, x2) = fi(x1, x2)− f(x1)f(x2), fi the density of (Xj , Xi+j),

J1 = R(K)µ2

2R(f ′′)and J2 = µ4R(f ′′′)

20µ2R(f ′′) .

Now hPI =(J1n

)1/5

+ J2

(J1n

)3/5

, with J1 and J2 some estimators

of J1 and J2.R. Cao SSB bandwidth selection GSNSI, June 8, 2016 9 / 81

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Already existing bandwidth selectors

Plug-in method under dependence (PI)

Replace R(f ′′) by I2 and R(f ′′′) by I3, where:

Ik = 2θ1k − θ2k, k = 2, 3,

θ1k = 2(n(n− 1)h2k+1

1

)−1 ∑∑1≤i<j≤n

K(2k)1

(Xi −Xj

h1

),

θ2k = 2(n(n− 1)h2(k+1)

1

)−1 ∑∑1≤i<j≤n

∫K

(k)1

(x−Xi

h1

)K

(k)1

(x−Xj

h1

)dx.

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Already existing bandwidth selectors

Leave-(2l + 1)-out cross validation (CVl)Hart and Vieu (1990)

DefineCVl(h) =

∫f2(x)dx− 2

n

n∑j=1

f jl (Xj),

wheref jl (x) = 1

nl

n∑i:|j−i|>l

1hK

(x−Xi

h

).

Choose nl such that:

nnl = #{(i, j) : |i− j| > l}.

The CVl bandwidth selector is

hCVl= arg min

hCVl(h).

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Already existing bandwidth selectors

Penalized cross validation (PCV)

Estevez, Quintela and Vieu (2002) proposed it for hazard rate estimationThe PCV bandwidth selecctor is

hPCV = hCVl+ λ.

λ is chosen empirically as follows:

λn =(0.8e7.9ρ−1

)n−3/10hCVl

100 ,

where ρ is the estimated autocorrelation

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Already existing bandwidth selectors

Modified cross validation under dependence (SMCV )

Stute (1992) proposed it for independent dataDefine

SMCV (h) =1nh

∫K2(t)dt

+1

n(n− 1)h

∑i6=j

[1h

∫K

(x−Xi

h

)K

(x−Xj

h

)dx

]

−1

nnlh

n∑j=1

n∑i:|j−i|>l

[K

(Xi −Xj

h

)− dK′′

(Xi −Xj

h

)].

The SMCV bandwidth selector is

hSMCV = arg minhSMCV (h)

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Bootstrap bandwidth selector in the iid case

Exact MISE expression for the iid case

MISE (h) = E[∫ (

fh (x)− f (x))2dx

]= B (h) + V (h) ,

where

B (h) =∫ [

E(fh (x)

)− f (x)

]2dx, e

V (h) =∫V ar

(fh (x)

)dx

Exact expression for MISE(h):

B (h) =∫

(Kh ∗ f (x)− f (x))2 dx, and

V (h) = n−1h−1R (K)− n−1∫

(Kh ∗ f (x))2 dx.

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Bootstrap bandwidth selector in the iid case

Smoothed bootstrap for the iid caseSmooth bootstrap algorithm for bandwidth selection Cao (1993)

1 Starting from (X1, . . . , Xn) (iid), and using a pilot bandwidth, g,compute fg

2 Draw bootstrap resamples (X∗1 , . . . , X∗n) from fg3 For every h > 0, obtain

f∗h(x) = 1nh

n∑i=1

K

(x−X∗ih

)4 Construct the bootstrap version of MISE:

MISE∗(h) =∫

E∗[(f∗h(x)− fg(x)

)2]dx

5 Obtain the bootstrap selector:

h∗MISE = arg minh>0

MISE∗(h).

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Bootstrap bandwidth selector in the iid case

Smoothed bootstrap for the iid case

Closed expression for the bootstrap MISEAn exact expression for MISE∗(h) can be found:

MISE∗(h) = 1n2

n∑i,j=1

[(Kh ∗Kg −Kg) ∗ (Kh ∗Kg −Kg)] (Xi −Xj)

+R(K)nh

− 1n3

n∑i,j=1

[(Kh ∗Kg) ∗ (Kg ∗Kg)] (Xi −Xj) ,

where ∗ denotes the convolution operator: f ∗ g(x) =∫∞−∞ f(x− y)g(y)dy.

Consequently, there is no need to draw bootstrap resamples by MonteCarlo to approximate MISE∗(h).

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Smooth Stationary Bootstrap (SSB)

Exact MISE expression under dependence and stationarity

Exact expression for MISE(h):

MISE (h) = B (h) + V (h) , where

B (h) =∫

(Kh ∗ f (x)− f (x))2 dx, and

V (h) = n−1h−1R (K)−∫

(Kh ∗ f (x))2 dx

+ 2n−2n−1∑`=1

(n− `)∫ ∫

Kh (x− y) f (y) (Kh ∗ f` (•|y)) (x) dx dy,

where f` (•|y) is the conditional density function of Xt+` given Xt = y.

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Smooth Stationary Bootstrap (SSB)

Smooth Stationary BootstrapSSB resampling plan Barbeito and Cao (2016)

1 Draw X∗(SB)1 from Fn.

2 Draw U∗1 with density K and independently of X∗(SB)1 and define

X∗1 = X∗(SB)1 + gU∗1

3 Assume we have drawn X∗1 , . . . , X∗i and consider the indexj/X

∗(SB)i = Xj . Define I∗i+1, such that

P∗(I∗i+1 = 1

)= 1− p,

P∗(I∗i+1 = 0

)= p.

Assign X∗(SB)i+1 |I∗i+1=1 = X(jmodn)+1 and draw X

∗(SB)i+1 |I∗i+1=0 from

the empirical distribution function4 Define X∗i+1 = X

∗(SB)i+1 + gU∗i+1 (where U∗i+1 has density K). Go to

the previous step if i+ 1 < n.R. Cao SSB bandwidth selection GSNSI, June 8, 2016 18 / 81

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Smooth Stationary Bootstrap (SSB)

MISE closed expression for SSBAn explicit expression for MISE∗(h) can be obtained:

MISE∗(h) = n−1h−1R (K)

+[n− 1n3 −2

1− p− (1− p)n

pn3 + 2(n− 1) (1− p)n+1 − n (1− p)n + 1− p

p2n4

n∑i,j=1

[(Kh ∗Kg) ∗ (Kh ∗Kg)] (Xi −Xj)

−2n−2n∑

i,j=1

(Kh ∗Kg ∗Kg) (Xi −Xj)

+n−2n∑

i,j=1

(Kg ∗Kg) (Xi −Xj) +2n−3n−1∑`=1

(n− `) (1− p)`

·n∑

k=1

[(Kh ∗Kg) ∗ (Kh ∗Kg)](Xk −Xd(k+`−1)modne+1

).

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Smooth Moving Blocks Bootstrap (SMBB)

Smooth Moving Blocks Bootstrap

SMBB resampling plan1 Fix the block lenght, b ∈ N, and define k = min`∈N ` ≥ n

b

2 Define:Bi,b = (Xi, Xi+1, . . . , Xi+b−1)

3 Draw ξ1, ξ2, . . . , ξk with uniform discrete distribution on{B1, B2, . . . , Bq}, with q = n− b+ 1

4 Define X∗(MBB)1 , . . . , X

∗(MBB)n as the first n components of

(ξ1,1, ξ1,2, . . . , ξ1,b, ξ2,1, ξ2,2 . . . , ξ2,b, . . . , ξk,1, ξk,2, . . . , ξk,b)

5 Define X∗i = X∗(MBB)i + gU∗i , where U∗i has been drawn with density

K and independently from X∗(MBB)i , for all i = 1, 2, . . . , n

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Smooth Moving Blocks Bootstrap (SMBB)

MISE closed expression for SMBBAn explicit expression for MISE∗(h) can be obtained, considering n anentire multiple of b.

If b = n,

MISE∗(h) =R(K)nh

+1n2

n∑i=1

n∑j=1

ψ(Xi −Xj)

−2n2

n∑i=1

n∑j=1

[(Kh ∗Kg) ∗Kg ] (Xi −Xj)

+1n2

n∑i=1

n∑j=1

[Kg ∗Kg ] (Xi −Xj)

+ψ(0)n

,

where ψ(Xi −Xj) = [(Kh ∗Kg) ∗ (Kh ∗Kg)] (Xi −Xj).

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Smooth Moving Blocks Bootstrap (SMBB)

MISE closed expression for SMBBIf b < n,

MISE∗(h) =R(K)nh

+n∑

i=1

ai

n∑j=1

aj · ψ(Xi −Xj)

−2n

n∑i=1

ai

n∑j=1

[(Kh ∗Kg) ∗Kg ] (Xi −Xj)

+1n2

n∑i=1

n∑j=1

[Kg ∗Kg ] (Xi −Xj)

−b− 1

n(n− b+ 1)2

n−b+1∑i=b−1

n−b+2∑j=b

ψ(Xi −Xj)

−1

nb · (n− b+ 1)2

[b−1∑i=1

b−1∑j=1

(min{i, j})ψ(Xi −Xj)

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Smooth Moving Blocks Bootstrap (SMBB)

MISE closed expression for SMBB

+b−1∑i=1

i

n−b+1∑j=b

ψ(Xi −Xj) +b−1∑i=1

n∑j=n−b+2

(min{(n− b+ i− j + 1), i})ψ(Xi −Xj)

+n−b+1∑

i=b

b−1∑j=1

j · ψ(Xi −Xj) +n∑

i=n−b+2

(min{(n− i+ 1), b})n−b+1∑

j=b

ψ(Xi −Xj)

+n−b+1∑

i=b

n∑j=n−b+2

(min{(n− j + 1), b}) · ψ(Xi −Xj)

+n∑

i=n−b+2

b−1∑j=1

(min{(n− b+ j − i+ 1), j})ψ(Xi −Xj) + b

n−b+1∑i=b

n−b+1∑j=b

ψ(Xi −Xj)

+n∑

i=n−b+2

n∑j=n−b+2

(n+ 1−max{i, j})ψ(Xi −Xj)

]

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Smooth Moving Blocks Bootstrap (SMBB)

MISE closed expression for SMBB

+2

nb(n− b+ 1)

b−1∑s=1

n−s∑j=1

(min{j, b− s} −max{1, j + b− n}+ 1)ψ(Xj+s −Xj)

−2

nb(n− b+ 1)2

b∑k,`=1k<`

[b−2∑i=k

b−1∑j=`

ψ(Xi −Xj) +n−b+k∑

i=n−b+2

n−b+`∑j=n−b+3

ψ(Xi −Xj)

+b−2∑i=k

n−b+`∑j=n−b+3

ψ(Xi −Xj) +n−b+k∑

i=n−b+2

b−1∑j=`

ψ(Xi −Xj)

]

+b−1∑k=1

(b− k)b−2∑i=k

n−b+2∑j=b

ψ(Xi −Xj) +b∑

`=2

(`− 1)n−b+1∑i=b−1

b−1∑j=`

ψ(Xi −Xj)

+b∑

`=2

(`− 1)n−b+1∑i=b−1

n−b+`∑j=n−b+3

ψ(Xi −Xj) +b−1∑k=1

(b− k)n−b+k∑

i=n−b+2

n−b+2∑j=b

ψ(Xi −Xj)

],

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Smooth Moving Blocks Bootstrap (SMBB)

MISE closed expression for SMBB

considering aj such that:

aj =

j

b(n− b+ 1) , if j = 1, . . . , b− 1

1n− b+ 1 , if j = b, . . . , n− b+ 1

n− j + 1b(n− b+ 1) , if j = n− b+ 2, . . . , n

.

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Simulations

Simulated models

Six time series models have been considered

Model 1:Xt = −0.9Xt−1 − 0.2Xt−2 + at,

where the atd= N(0, 1) are independent. Thus Xt

d= N(0, 0.42)Model 2:

Xt = at − 0.9at−1 + 0.2at−2,

where atd= N(0, 1) are independent. Thus Xt

d= N(0, 1.85).

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Simulations

Simulated models

Model 3:Xt = φXt−1 + (1− φ2)1/2at,

with atd= N(0, 1), φ = 0,±0.3,±0.6,±0.9. Thus Xt

d= N(0, 1).Model 4:

Xt = φXt−1 + at,

where the distribution of at is given by P(It = 1) = φ,P(It = 2) = 1− φ, with at|It=1

d= 0 (constant), at|It=2d= exp(1),

and φ = 0, 0.3, 0.6, 0.9. We have Xtd= exp(1)

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Simulations

Simulated models

Model 5:Xt = φXt−1 + at,

where the distribution of at is P(It = 1) = φ2, P(It = 2) = 1− φ2,with at|It=1

d= 0 (constant), at|It=2d= Dexp(1), and

φ = 0,±0.3,±0.6,±0.9. Thus Xtd= Dexp(1).

Model 6:

Xt ={X

(1)t with probability 1/2

X(2)t with probability 1/2

,

where X(j)t = (−1)j+1 + 0.5X(j)

t−1 + a(j)t with j = 1, 2, ∀t ∈ Z,

a(j)t

d= N(0, 0.6) independent and Xtd= 1

2N(2, 0.8) + 12N(−2, 0.8)

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Simulations

Performance measures

The following results will be shown for the six models considered in thesimulations

log(

h

hMISE

)

log(

MISE(h)MISE(hMISE)

),

where h = hCVl, hSMCV , hPCV , hPI , h

∗SSB, h

∗SMBB.

R. Cao SSB bandwidth selection GSNSI, June 8, 2016 29 / 81

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Simulations

Approximating the optimal bandwidth

Consider some criterion function Ψ(h) (e.g. MISE∗(h) under SSB orSMBB; CVl(h) for Hart and Vieu’s CV, Stute’s MCV or Estevez, Quintelaand Vieu PCV).

1 Consider a set of five equispaced bandwidths, H1 between 0.01 and 102 Obtain hOPT1 = arg minh∈H1 Ψ(h)3 Consider ha the previous value of hOPT1 within H1 and hb the

following value to hOPT1 within H1

4 Construct a new set, H2, of equispaced bandwidths between ha andhb

5 Repeat Steps 2-4 10 times6 The approximated optimal bandwidth is the value obtained in the

10th repetition

R. Cao SSB bandwidth selection GSNSI, June 8, 2016 30 / 81

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Simulations

Technical aspects

l = 5 for CVlhSMCV is considered as the smallest h for which SMCV (h) attains alocal minimum, not its global onePilot bandwidth for PI: h1 = 1Pilot bandwidth for h∗SSB and h∗SMBB as in the iid case: some normalreference estimator of

g0 =( ∫

K ′′(t)2dt

ndK∫f (3)(x)2dx

)1/7

p = 0.05 for SSBb = 20 for SMBBFor every model, 1000 random samples of size n = 100 were drawn

R. Cao SSB bandwidth selection GSNSI, June 8, 2016 31 / 81

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Simulations

log(h/hMISE). Model 1

CV_l SMCV PCV SSB SMBB PI

−2

02

46

R. Cao SSB bandwidth selection GSNSI, June 8, 2016 32 / 81

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Simulations

log(MISE(h)/MISE(hMISE)). Model 1

CV_l SMCV PCV SSB SMBB PI

01

23

4

R. Cao SSB bandwidth selection GSNSI, June 8, 2016 33 / 81

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Simulations

log(h/hMISE). Model 2

CV_l SMCV PCV SSB SMBB PI

−2

−1

01

23

45

R. Cao SSB bandwidth selection GSNSI, June 8, 2016 34 / 81

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Simulations

log(MISE(h)/MISE(hMISE)). Model 2

CV_l SMCV PCV SSB SMBB PI

01

23

4

R. Cao SSB bandwidth selection GSNSI, June 8, 2016 35 / 81

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Simulations

log(h/hMISE). Model 3, φ = −0.9

CV_l SMCV PCV SSB SMBB PI

−2

02

4

R. Cao SSB bandwidth selection GSNSI, June 8, 2016 36 / 81

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Simulations

log(MISE(h)/MISE(hMISE)). Model 3, φ = −0.9

CV_l SMCV PCV SSB SMBB PI

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

R. Cao SSB bandwidth selection GSNSI, June 8, 2016 37 / 81

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Simulations

log(h/hMISE). Model 3, φ = −0.6

CV_l SMCV PCV SSB SMBB PI

−2

−1

01

R. Cao SSB bandwidth selection GSNSI, June 8, 2016 38 / 81

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Simulations

log(MISE(h)/MISE(hMISE)). Model 3, φ = −0.6

CV_l SMCV PCV SSB SMBB PI

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

R. Cao SSB bandwidth selection GSNSI, June 8, 2016 39 / 81

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Simulations

log(h/hMISE). Model 3, φ = −0.3

CV_l SMCV PCV SSB SMBB PI

−3.

0−

2.5

−2.

0−

1.5

−1.

0−

0.5

0.0

0.5

R. Cao SSB bandwidth selection GSNSI, June 8, 2016 40 / 81

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Simulations

log(MISE(h)/MISE(hMISE)). Model 3, φ = −0.3

CV_l SMCV PCV SSB SMBB PI

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

R. Cao SSB bandwidth selection GSNSI, June 8, 2016 41 / 81

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Simulations

log(h/hMISE). Model 3, φ = 0

CV_l SMCV PCV SSB SMBB PI

−2

−1

01

2

R. Cao SSB bandwidth selection GSNSI, June 8, 2016 42 / 81

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Simulations

log(MISE(h)/MISE(hMISE)). Model 3, φ = 0

CV_l SMCV PCV SSB SMBB PI

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

R. Cao SSB bandwidth selection GSNSI, June 8, 2016 43 / 81

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Simulations

log(h/hMISE). Model 3, φ = 0.3

CV_l SMCV PCV SSB SMBB PI

−3.

0−

2.5

−2.

0−

1.5

−1.

0−

0.5

0.0

0.5

R. Cao SSB bandwidth selection GSNSI, June 8, 2016 44 / 81

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Simulations

log(MISE(h)/MISE(hMISE)). Model 3, φ = 0.3

CV_l SMCV PCV SSB SMBB PI

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

R. Cao SSB bandwidth selection GSNSI, June 8, 2016 45 / 81

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Simulations

log(h/hMISE). Model 3, φ = 0.6

CV_l SMCV PCV SSB SMBB PI

−2.

0−

1.5

−1.

0−

0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

R. Cao SSB bandwidth selection GSNSI, June 8, 2016 46 / 81

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Simulations

log(MISE(h)/MISE(hMISE)). Model 3, φ = 0.6

CV_l SMCV PCV SSB SMBB PI

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

R. Cao SSB bandwidth selection GSNSI, June 8, 2016 47 / 81

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Simulations

log(h/hMISE). Model 3, φ = 0.9

CV_l SMCV PCV SSB SMBB PI

−3

−2

−1

01

2

R. Cao SSB bandwidth selection GSNSI, June 8, 2016 48 / 81

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Simulations

log(MISE(h)/MISE(hMISE)). Model 3, φ = 0.9

CV_l SMCV PCV SSB SMBB PI

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

R. Cao SSB bandwidth selection GSNSI, June 8, 2016 49 / 81

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Simulations

log(h/hMISE). Model 4, φ = 0

CV_l SMCV PCV SSB SMBB PI

−2

−1

01

2

R. Cao SSB bandwidth selection GSNSI, June 8, 2016 50 / 81

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Simulations

log(MISE(h)/MISE(hMISE)). Model 4, φ = 0

CV_l SMCV PCV SSB SMBB PI

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

R. Cao SSB bandwidth selection GSNSI, June 8, 2016 51 / 81

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Simulations

log(h/hMISE). Model 4, φ = 0.3

CV_l SMCV PCV SSB SMBB PI

−2

−1

01

23

R. Cao SSB bandwidth selection GSNSI, June 8, 2016 52 / 81

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Simulations

log(MISE(h)/MISE(hMISE)). Model 4, φ = 0.3

CV_l SMCV PCV SSB SMBB PI

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

R. Cao SSB bandwidth selection GSNSI, June 8, 2016 53 / 81

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Simulations

log(h/hMISE). Model 4, φ = 0.6

CV_l SMCV PCV SSB SMBB PI

−2

−1

01

23

R. Cao SSB bandwidth selection GSNSI, June 8, 2016 54 / 81

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Simulations

log(MISE(h)/MISE(hMISE)). Model 4, φ = 0.6

CV_l SMCV PCV SSB SMBB PI

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

R. Cao SSB bandwidth selection GSNSI, June 8, 2016 55 / 81

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Simulations

log(h/hMISE). Model 4, φ = 0.9

CV_l SMCV PCV SSB SMBB PI

−3

−2

−1

01

23

R. Cao SSB bandwidth selection GSNSI, June 8, 2016 56 / 81

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Simulations

log(MISE(h)/MISE(hMISE)). Model 4, φ = 0.9

CV_l SMCV PCV SSB SMBB PI

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

R. Cao SSB bandwidth selection GSNSI, June 8, 2016 57 / 81

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Simulations

log(h/hMISE). Model 5, φ = −0.9

CV_l SMCV PCV SSB SMBB PI

−4

−2

02

46

R. Cao SSB bandwidth selection GSNSI, June 8, 2016 58 / 81

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Simulations

log(MISE(h)/MISE(hMISE)). Model 5, φ = −0.9

CV_l SMCV PCV SSB SMBB PI

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

R. Cao SSB bandwidth selection GSNSI, June 8, 2016 59 / 81

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Simulations

log(h/hMISE). Model 5, φ = −0.6

CV_l SMCV PCV SSB SMBB PI

−3

−2

−1

01

23

R. Cao SSB bandwidth selection GSNSI, June 8, 2016 60 / 81

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Simulations

log(MISE(h)/MISE(hMISE)). Model 5, φ = −0.6

CV_l SMCV PCV SSB SMBB PI

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

R. Cao SSB bandwidth selection GSNSI, June 8, 2016 61 / 81

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Simulations

log(h/hMISE). Model 5, φ = −0.3

CV_l SMCV PCV SSB SMBB PI

−4

−2

02

46

R. Cao SSB bandwidth selection GSNSI, June 8, 2016 62 / 81

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Simulations

log(MISE(h)/MISE(hMISE)). Model 5, φ = −0.3

CV_l SMCV PCV SSB SMBB PI

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

R. Cao SSB bandwidth selection GSNSI, June 8, 2016 63 / 81

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Simulations

log(h/hMISE). Model 5, φ = 0

CV_l SMCV PCV SSB SMBB PI

−2

−1

01

2

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Simulations

log(MISE(h)/MISE(hMISE)). Model 5, φ = 0

CV_l SMCV PCV SSB SMBB PI

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

R. Cao SSB bandwidth selection GSNSI, June 8, 2016 65 / 81

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Simulations

log(h/hMISE). Model 5, φ = 0.3

CV_l SMCV PCV SSB SMBB PI

−2

02

4

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Simulations

log(MISE(h)/MISE(hMISE)). Model 5, φ = 0.3

CV_l SMCV PCV SSB SMBB PI

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

R. Cao SSB bandwidth selection GSNSI, June 8, 2016 67 / 81

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Simulations

log(h/hMISE). Model 5, φ = 0.6

CV_l SMCV PCV SSB SMBB PI

−2

02

4

R. Cao SSB bandwidth selection GSNSI, June 8, 2016 68 / 81

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Simulations

log(MISE(h)/MISE(hMISE)). Model 5, φ = 0.6

CV_l SMCV PCV SSB SMBB PI

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

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Simulations

log(h/hMISE). Model 5, φ = 0.9

CV_l SMCV PCV SSB SMBB PI

−4

−2

02

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Simulations

log(MISE(h)/MISE(hMISE)). Model 5, φ = 0.9

CV_l SMCV PCV SSB SMBB PI

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

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Simulations

log(h/hMISE). Model 6

CV_l SMCV PCV SSB SMBB PI

−4

−3

−2

−1

01

23

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Simulations

log(MISE(h)/MISE(hMISE)). Model 6

CV_l SMCV PCV SSB SMBB PI

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

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Real data application

Real data application: Data sets considered

1 lynx data set: Number of Canadian lynxes trapped (114 observations).

Time

serie

1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 19200

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

Time

serie

1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920

45

67

89

(1− φ1B − φ2B2)Yt = c+ (1 + θ1B + θ2B

2 + θ3B3)(1 + Θ1B

12)at.

2 sunspot.year data set: Yearly number of sunspots from 1700 to 1988(289 observations).

Time

serie

1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950

050

100

150

Time

serie

1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950

12

34

5

(1− φ1B − φ2B2 − φ2B3 − φ4B

4)(1−B)(1−B12)Yt =

c+ (1 + θ1B + θ2B2 + θ3B

3 + θ4B4) · (1 +B12Θ1)at.

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Real data application

Real data application: lynx data set

4 6 8 10

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

Den

sity

h_SSBh_SMBBh_CV_lh_PCVh_SMCVh_PI

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Real data application

Real data application: sunspot.year data set

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

Den

sity

h_SSBh_SMBBh_CV_lh_PCVh_SMCVh_PI

R. Cao SSB bandwidth selection GSNSI, June 8, 2016 76 / 81

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Real data application

Real data application: Bandwidth parameters

h∗SSB h∗SMBB hCVlhPCV hSMCV hPI

0.4345 0.4246 0.3173 0.6194 0.2585 0.4152

Table: Bandwidth parameters for lynx data set.

h∗SSB h∗SMBB hCVlhPCV hSMCV hPI

0.3173 0.3295 0.3002 0.5065 0.196 0.3392

Table: Bandwidth parameters for sunspot.year data set.

R. Cao SSB bandwidth selection GSNSI, June 8, 2016 77 / 81

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Conclusions

Main conclusions

New SSB and SMBB bootstrap resampling plans under dependence.Closed expressions for MISE∗ under SSB and SMBB. Monte Carlo isnot needed.Bandwidth selection for the KDE with dependent data:

Plug-inLeave-(2l + 1)-out cross validationPenalized cross validationModified cross validationSmooth Stationary BootstrapSmooth Moving Blocks Bootstrap

Good empirical behaviour of hPI , but sometimes it producesextremely large banwdidthsh∗SSB and h∗SMBB display the overall best performance.

R. Cao SSB bandwidth selection GSNSI, June 8, 2016 78 / 81

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Conclusions

References

Barbeito, I. and Cao, R. (2016). Smoothed stationary bootstrapbandwidth selection for density estimation with dependent data.Unpublished manuscript.

Cao, R. (1993). Bootstrapping the mean integrated squared error. J.Mult. Anal. 45, 137-160.Efron, B. and Tibishirani, R. (1986). An Introduction to theBootstrap. Chapman and Hall.

Estevez-Perez, G., Quintela-del-Rıo, A. and Vieu, P. (2002).Convergence rate for cross-validatory bandwidth in kernel hazardestimation from dependent samples. J. Statist. Planning andInference, 104, 1-30.Hall, P., Lahiri, S.N. and Truong, Y.K.(1995). On bandwidth choicefor density estimation with dependent data. Ann. Statist., 23, 6,2241-2263.

R. Cao SSB bandwidth selection GSNSI, June 8, 2016 79 / 81

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Conclusions

References (continued)

Hart, J. and Vieu, P. (1990). Data-driven bandwidth choice for densityestimation based on dependent data. Ann. Statist., 18, 873-890.

Kunsch, H.R. (1989). The jackknife and the bootstrap for generalstationary observations. Ann. Statist., 17, 1217-1241.

Liu, R.Y., and Singh, K. (1992). Moving blocks jackknife andbootstrap capture weak dependence, in Exploring the Limits of theBootstrap, ed. by R. LePage and L. Billiard. New York: Wiley.

Politis, D.N. and Romano, J.R. (1994a). The stationary bootstrap. J.Amer. Statist. Assoc., 89, 1303-1313.Politis, D.N. and Romano, J.R. (1994b). Large Sample ConfidenceRegions Based on Subsamples under Minimal Assumptions. Ann.Statist., 22, 2031-2050 .Stute, W. (1992). Modified cross-validation in density estimation. J.Statist. Planning and Inference, 3, 293-305.

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