Slide.quản Lý Dự Án - Phan Thế Vinh
Transcript of Slide.quản Lý Dự Án - Phan Thế Vinh
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QUN L D N
Ging vin: Phan Th Vinh B mn Qun l cng nghip KhoaKinh t v Qun l -HBK
VP: Phng 209C9, S 1 i C Vit
T: 868.3661 - 0983.56.67.78
Email: [email protected]/ [email protected]
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected] -
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Chng 1: Tng quan v qun l d n
Khi nim, phn loi u t
Khi nim, c trng d n
Phn loi d n
Ni dung d n u t
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Tng quan v d n (tip)
Khi nim qun l d n
Cc chc nng qun l d n
Cc bn lin quan n d nNhng yu t nh hng n s thnh
cng, tht bi ca d n
Cc quy lut ca qun l d n
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Hot ng b vnti hin ti nhm thu cli chkinh t x hi trong tng lai sau mtthi gian di
L vic nh u t b vn bng cc loi ti sn huhnh hoc v hnh hnh thnh ti sn tin hnh cchot ng u t (iu 3.11 Lut u t 29.11.05)
Phn bit u cv u t?- Thng tin-c quyn
u t di gc ri ro?
Khi nim u t
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Chc nng qun l vn
Ngun vn u t
Theo phm vi u t
Mc ch u t
Ngnh, lnh vc u t
Theo hnh thc u t
Theo c tnh ca dng tin (xem phn loid n)
Phn loi u t
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u t bng ngun vn trong nc
u t bng ngun vn ngoi nc
u t bng vn CSH (vn t c)
u t bng vn vay
Theo ngh nh16 ca Chnh ph ngy 7/2/2005 Vn ngn sch nh nc;
Vn tn dng do Nh nc bo lnh, vn tn dng u tpht trin ca Nh nc;
Vn u t pht trin ca doanh nghip nh nc; Vn khc bao gm c vn t nhn hoc s dng hn
hp nhiu ngun vn.
Theo ngun vn u t
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u t trc tip: Ch u t trc tip thamgia qun l vn. Gm hai loiou t pht trin: gia tng gi tr ti sn
ou t dch chuyn: dch chuyn quyn shu
u t gin tip: Ch u t khng trc tiptham gia qun l vn
Chc nng qun l vn
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u t mi
u t chiu su
u t m rng
u t thay th thit b
Ch
Phn loi mang tnh cht tng i
ri ro gim dn
Theo mc ch u t
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D n l tp hp nhng xut v vic b vn tomi, m rng hay ci to nhng i tng nht nhnhm t c s tng trng v s lng, ci tin
hoc nng cao cht lng ca sn phm hay dch vno trong mt khong thi gian xc nh
(Ngh nh 16/2005/CP v Quy ch qun l u t xy dng cng trnh)
Tp hp cc xut b vn trung v di hn tin hnh u ttrn a bn c th, trong khang thi gian c th - Lut u t
Khi nim d n
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D n l n lc ln v phc tp c to thnh bi
nhiu cng vic c lin quan ln nhau, nhm hon
thnh trong mt thi gian xc nh mt tp hp ccmc tiu nh trc, vi k hoch v ngun lc c xc nh r.
Khi nim d n
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Mang tnh cht tm thi
vng i gii hnTnh duy nht
Cc mc tiu r rng v c th
Tp hp phc tp cc hot ng vi s tham gia canhiu ngi v nhiu t chc v gm nhiu chc nng
L mt thc th c to mi, xut hin ln u
Bao gm nhng thay i v ri ro
Do bn thn d n gy raDo cc yu t bn ngoi gy ra
c trng ca d n
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Phn loi theo quy m: ln-nh
D n ln: c c trng bi tng kinh ph ln, slng cc bn tham gia ng, thi gian d n di vnh hng mnh n mi trng kinh t v sinh thi
D n nh: c c tnh ngc vi d n ln, khngi hi kinh ph nhiu, thi gian thc hin ngn,khng phc tp va nh hng khng mnh n mitrng kinh t v sinh thi
Ti Vit nam: Phn loi theo quy m v tnh chtquan trngA,B,C - phn cp qun l, u i
Phn loi d n
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Phn loi d n
Phn loi theo mc ch u t (u ra)
- D n u t mi
- D n u t chiu su- D n u t m rng
- D n u t thay th thit b
Ch : Mc ri ro gim dn, phn loi mangtnh tng i
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Phn loi d n
Phn loi theo ngnh ngh:
D n trong lnh vc cng nghip
D n trong lnh vc nng nghip
D n trong lnh vc giao thng vn ti
D n trong lnh vc thng mi dch v
D n trong lnh vc xy dng, thD n trong lnh vc y t, gio dc, x hi
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Phn loi d n
Phn loi BOO, BCC BOT, BTO, BT Phn loi theo mi quan h gia cc d n
o D n c lp: Vic quyt nh u t d n nykhng nh hng n quyt nh u t (thu nhp,chi ph) cc d n khc v ngc li
o D n ph thuc
D n b sung: Tng li ch v/hoc gim chi ph
D n thay th : Tng chi ph v/hoc gim li chThay th ln nht: d n loi tr
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Phn loi d n
Phn loi theo c tnh dng tin
o D n u t thng thng: Dng tin idu mt ln
o D n u t khng thng thng: Dng tinkhng i du hoc i du nhiu ln
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Cc giai on d n
Xc nh u t
Phn tch v lp d n
Thm nh v ph duyt
Thc hin u t
Nghim thu, tng kt, gii th
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G1: Xc nh , c hi u t
C nhim v pht hin nhng lnh vc ctim nng, cc u t:
Nhu cu kh nng p ng th trng
Chin lc pht trin kinh t Khai thc v s dng cha c hiu qu
ngun lc
Thiu iu kin vt cht pht trin kinh tx hi
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G2: Phn tch v lp d n
Nghin cu chi tit u t c xuttrn mi phng din: t chc, kinh t, tichnh, k thut, mi trng,
Nghin cu tin kh thi Nghin cu kh thi
=> Bo co u t
Cc bc trong phn tch v lp d n tythuc vo quy m ca d n
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G3: Ph duyt v thm nh
Thm nh v ph duyt d n cphn tch v lp giai on trc
c thc hin bi cc ch th:
Nh nc Ch u t
Ngn hng,
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G4: Trin khai thc hin d n
Trin khai thc hin d n c lp phduyt
Thng c nhng sai lch so vi k hoch
c lp Chim thi gian ch yu trong vng i d
n
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G5: Nghim thu tng kt v gii th
Nghim thu cc thnh qu ca d n
Tng kt, rt ra cc bi hc kinh nghim
Tin hnh gii th d n: Thanh l ti sn,sp xp lao ng ca d n,
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Kim sotBo co
Yu cu Chi ph/ Tnh Mc tiu Ri ro Nhn lcch cht pht trin Li ch kh thi Cc gii php
Xc nh d n
Thc hin X l ngoi l
nh gi
Hon thnh d n
Mc tiu - Kt qu
Nhu cu/C hi
Lp k hoch
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Qun l d n
L qu trnh thc hin cc chc nng caqun l nhm t c mc tiu ca d n
Cc chc nng ca qun l d n:
Lp k hoch d n
T chc d n
iu phi thc hin d n
Kim tra gim st d n
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5 giai on ca chu trnh qun l d n
Thit k
Lp
k hoch
T chcthc hin
Gim stthc hin
Kt thcd n
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Thit k d n
Xc nh nhu cu v cc c hi
Xc nh cc mc tiu ca d n
Lit k cc mc ch ca d n
Xc nh s b cc ngun lc
Xc nh cc gi thit v ri ro gp phi
Kt qu: Thit k tng quan ca d n
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Cc mc tiu ca d n cn S.M.A.R.T
C th (Specific)
o c (Measurable)Phn cng c (Assignable)
Thc t (Realistic)
C tnh thi gian (Time-bound)
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Lp k hoch thc hin d n
Xc nh phm vi ca d n, cc cng vic, kt quv cc chi tit k thut
D kin thi gian, chi ph v cc ngun lc khc
Ln tin cc cng vic ca d n
Xc nh cc cng vic cn c bit lu tm
Lp k hoch gim st v kim sot d n
Vit v duyt cng ca d n
Tho thun v k hp ngDanh sch v lch trnh cc cng vic, m t v ngn
sch, cng d n
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T chc d n
Xc nh nhu cu nhn lc
Tuyn dng cc thnh vin d n
T chc nhm thc hin d n
Phn cng cng vic v trch nhim cho cc thnhvin ca nhm
Kt qu: S t chc v nhn lc WBS,
LRC
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Gim st v nh gi d n
Xc nh phng thc qun l ph hp
Thit lp cc cng c gim st v iu khin
Tin hnh gim st v nh gi thng xuyn
Gii quyt cc vn v mu thun
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Kt thc d n
t c s chp nhn ca khch hng v cc bn
lin quan chnh
Cung cp ti liu v d n v a ra bo co cuicng
nh gi cc nhu cu h tr d n trong tng lai
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Cc tiu ch thnh cng ca d n
Cc thng s k thut/
cc mc tiu
S chp thun
ca cc bn lin quan
Chi ph Thi gian
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Cc bn lin quan lin quan ca d n
L nhng c nhn hoc t chc
C quan tm su sc ti s thnh cng (hay thtbi) ca d n
C nh hng quan trng ti kt qu ca d n
(v cc hot ng ca d n)
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Nhng bn lin quan ca mt d n
Ban lnh o v/hoc ch d n
Ban qun l d n
Cc nh ti tr cc nh thu/ nh thu ph/ nhcung cp
Nhng ngi s dng thnh qu ca d n
Cc nhm quan tm khc
T vn v c vn
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iu kin thnh cng quan trng ca d n
mctiu dn qunl dn
nghcacplnh o
cc thnh vin trong nhm dnphnphiyngunlc
cc knh thng tin thch hp
cchkimsot thch ng vi khch hng
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Nguyn nhn tht bi thng gp ca d n
Ch c cc thnh vin ca nhm thc hin d nquan tm n thnh cng ca d n
Thiu phn cng trch nhim
K hoch d n khng hp l v khng chi tit
D n b thiu vn
Cc ngun lc khng c phn b y
Thiu h thng gim st v kim sot hu hiu
Khng c s trao i thng tin
D n i chch mc tiu ra ban u
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Cc quy lut qun l d n (1)
1. Khng c d n ln no c thc hin ng thi hn,trong gii hn v ngn sch, hoc vi cng mt ing nhn vin lc n bt u c. D n ca bn khngphi l d n u tin nh vy.
2. Cc d n tin hnh rt nhanh cho n khi t c
90% cng vic v ri s mi dng li con s 90% 3. Li th ca cc mc tiu khng r rng l gip cho
bn khi cm thy bi ri khi phi c tnh nhng chiph tng ng.
4. Khi mi vic din ra tt p th chc chn c mt cig ang trc trc. Khi mi vic tng nh l tit nht, th n cn c th ti t hn na. Khi mi vicc v c chiu hng tt ln, th c th bn b quamt ci g .
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Cc quy lut qun l d n (2)
5. Nu ni dung ca d n c cho php thay i t do,th tc thay i s vt qu tc tin trin cad n
6. Khng c h thng no hon ton khng c li. Vicc gng g li cho mt h thng chc chn s a vonhng li mi kh tm thy hn.
7. D n c lp k hoch khng cn thn s ko dithi gian hon thnh gp 3 ln so vi d kin. D nc lp k hoch cn thn s ch ko di thi giangp 2 ln thi.
8. Nhng ngi lm d n ght cay ght ng vic boco tin bi iu s lm l ra vic d n ca hthiu s tin trin.
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Cu hi kim tra
Phn bit mt d n v
mt phng chc nng
?
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So snh phng chc nng v d nD n Phng ban chc nng
C chu k hot ng r rng Tn ti lu di, t nm ny sang nm khc
Thi im bt u v kt thc theo ngy lch Khng c c im c th lin quan n ngylch (ngoi tr ngn sch ti chnh hng nm)
D n c th kt thc t ngt khi khng tmc tiu
Tn ti lin tc
Do tnh c o ca d n, cng vic khng blp li Thc hin cc cng vic v chc nng bit
N lc tng hp c hon thnh trong rngbuc v thi gian v ngun lc
Cng vic ti a c thc hin vi ngn schsn / trn hng nm (ceiling budget)
Vic d bo thi gian hon thnh v chi phgp kh khn
Tng i n gin
Lin quan n nhiu k nng v k lut trongnhiu t chc v thay i theo giai on d n
Ch lin quan n mt vi k nng v k luttrong mt t chc
T l v loi chi ph thay i lin tc Tng i n nh
Bn cht nng ng Bn cht n nh
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Chng 2Phn tch, nh gi v la chn d n
1. Ni dung phn tch v lp d n (Nghin cu khthi d n ) Lp bo co u t
2. Phn tch ti chnh d n3. Phn tch nh hng ca khu hao v li vay4. nh gi hiu qu ca d n5. Xc nh dng tin d n6. Phn tch nh hng ca lm pht7. Cc phng php nh gi v la chn d n
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Phn 1: Phn tch v lp d n
Nghin cu kh thi d n (phn tch v lp d n)
Nghin cu kh thi- FS l qu trnh iu tra nghin cumt u t (mt vn ) v pht trin gii php mcchi tit va xc nh rng n kh thi v mt k thutv c th thc hin c v phng din kinh t cng nhxng ng pht trin.
Nghin cukhthi l mtsminh chngvimtbo cothhinttcnhngkhnngcadn
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Ni dung nghin cu kh thi
1. Nghin cu tnh hnh k.t tng qut
2. Nghin cu th trng
3. Nghin cu k thut4. Nghin cu ti chnh
5. Nghin cu t chc qun l
6. Nghin cu kinh t x hi
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1. Nghin cu tnh hnh kinh t tng qut
a. c im chung
iu kin a l, t nhin, a hnh, kh hu...
Dn s v lao ng: D tnh cu v khuynh hng
tiu th sn phm.Chnh tr: Chnh sch kinh t v qun l ca gii
cm quyn
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b. c im kinh t x hiTng sn phm x hi: u t, tiu th v tch lu:
GNP, GDP, I/GDP...
Tnh hnh ngoi hi: Cn cn thanh ton ngoi hi,
d tr ngoi t, n nc ngoi.c. H thng kinh t v cc chnh schC cu t chc h thng kinh tChnh sch pht trin, ci t c cu,..K hoch kinh t quc dnTnh hnh ngoi thng
1. Nghin cu tnh hnh kinh t tng qut
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2. Nghin cu th trng
Mc ch: Lm r 3 vn Nhu cu hng ho ca d n Tnh hnh cung ca hng ha ca d n To ra ch ng ca sn phm trn th trng bng
cnh tranh v khuyn th ra saoNi dung:Nhu cu hng ho, dch v H thng phn phi
Gi c Xc tin bn hng Cnh tranh
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3.Nghin cu k thut d n
Xc nh k thut v quy trnh sn xut, a imsx v nhu cu sx mt cch ti u v ph hpnht vi nhng iu kin hin c trong nc mvn m bo c cc yu cu v cht lng v s
lng sn phm qua nghin cu th trng
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3. Nghin cu k thut d n
c tnh sn phm v Kim tra cht lng. Phng php v k thut sn xut.
Thit b, my mc.
Cng sut ca d n.c tnh v nhu cu nguyn vt liu.
Lao ng
C s h tng, t ai v a im ca nh my,xy dng
X l cht thi nhim mi trng
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3.1. c tnh v cht lng sn phm
Xc nh c tnh k thut, cc tiu chun cn phit c. So snh vi cc sp, tiu chun trong vngoi nc.
Xc nh phng php v phng tin kim tra
cht lng sp. D tr kinh ph cho b phn kimtra cht lng sp
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3.2. K thut v pp sn xut
a. Nghin cu k thut v phng php sx:+ Bn cht ca k thut sn xut.
+ Tay ngh ca ngi lao ng, kh nng tip thu kthut.
+ Yu cu NVL, nng lng s dng.
+ Kh nng chuyn sang sx cc mt hng khc.
+ Nh cung cp, cch cung cp v quyn SHCN.
+ Yu cu v vn v ngoi t
b. La chn k thut v pp sn xut:
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3.3. My mc v thit b
My mc c la chn theo cc tiu chun: Ph hp vi quy trnh cng ngh Cht lng tt.
Gi c phi chng, hp vi vn u t. Tui th v cng sut ph hp. Ph tng thay th (10-20% chi ph TB), chi ph sa
cha.
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3.4. Cng sut ca d n
Khi nim: L s sn phm sx c trong mt nv thi gian.Vic xc nh cng sut da vo:Nhu cu tiu th sn phm
K thut sn xut v my mc thit bKh nng cung ng nguyn vt liuChi ph u t v sn xut
o Phn bit cc loi cng sut: thc t, danh ngha,..
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3.5. Nguyn vt liu
Bao gm cc nguyn vt liu chnh, ph, vt liu baob ng gi. c nghin cu:
Loi NVL c s dng trong d n.
c tnh v cht lng.Ngun v nhu cu cung cp.
Gi mua
K hoch cung ng v chuyn ch
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3.6. C s h tng
Nng lng.Nc.H thng giao thng, thng tin lin lc.H thng x l cht thi, kh thi bo v mi
trng.H thng an ton lao ng, phng chy cha chy.> nh hng n vn u t v chi ph sn xut ca
d n
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3.7. Lao ng, tr gip k thut n.ngoi
Lao ng:
Nhu cu v ngun lao ng.
Lng, ch lao ng, tin lng p.
iu kin sng, BHXH.
Trnh , tay ngh ca ngi lao ng.
S tr gip ca chuyn gia nc ngoi khi tip
nhn k thut, thit k, thi cng lp t, chy thmy, o to CN
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3.8. a im thc hin d n
Cn c vo 4 yu t sau:
Chnh sch nh nc.
Vn cung cp nguyn vt liu v tiu th snphm.
C s h tng.
Mi trng t nhin, kinh t x hi.
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3.9. t ai v xy dng nh xng
Xy dng cc cng trnh nhm to iu kin vm bo cho dy chuyn thit b sn xut, cngnhn hot ng c hiu qu v an ton
3.10. X l cht thi gy nhim mi trngNghin cu ngun gc cht thi.
Kh nng thu hi, iu ho lu lng
PP x l thch hpChi ph thc hin x l cht thi
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4. Nghin cu v tnh hnh ti chnh
Thng qua phn tch ti chnh, ta xc nh quy mu t, c cu cc loi cc loi vn, ngun ti trcho d n; tnh ton thu chi l li, nhng li chmang li cho ch u t.
Phn tch ti chnh l qu trnh nghin cu nh gi
d n trn gc li ch ca ch u t cho d n
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4. Nghin cu v tnh hnh ti chnh
1. Xc nh tng vn u t,c cu vn u t,ngun ti tr v chi ph vn.
2. Xc nh cc khon thu, chi, li nhun
3. Xc nh cc ch tiu hiu qu u t4. Phn tch kh nng huy ng vn v thanh ton
ca d n
5. Phn tch nhy ca d n
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5. Nghin cu t chc v qun l
Quy ch php l ca nh u t
C cu t chc
Kh nng ca ban gim c d n
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6. Nghin cu kinh t x hi
Khi nim: Phn tch Kinh t d n l vic xem xtnh gi chi ph v li ch m d n mang li choton b nn kinh t ( hay chnh l vic nh gihiu qu ca d n trn quan im ton b nn kinht ).
Ging nh phn tch ti chnh, phn tch kinh tcng l vic so snh li ch v chi ph ca d n,
nhng trn c s ng gp cho cc mc tiu phttrin ca nn kinh t
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Phn tch kinh t x hi
Mcch:Nhmthuytphccc cpchnh quyn,cc tchcti trquytnhti trhay cho phpthchindn
Mctiu caphn tch kinh tx hil xc nhvtr cthcadn trong tngthKH pht trinnnkinh tqucdn
Trong tng giai on, cc mc tiu c th thay
i,do vycc tiu chunnhgi kinh tx hicngthay i
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Phm vi p dng:
Phn tch kinh tthngcsdngnhgiv lachncc dn sau:Cc dn mang mcchcng chCc d n c lin quan ns ti trca nh
nc, hay ca cc t chc vin tr pht trincaquct.V vy nh nc cng nh cc c quan c thm
quyn cng s dng phn tch kinh t thm
nhcc dn ut.
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Ni dung phn tch KT-XH
Ni dung nghin cu (phn tch) kinh t x hi thng cp n cc ND sau:
K hoch v chin lc pht trin nn KT.
Tng sn phm x hi.Ngoi thng.
Vic s dng cc yu t sn xut
Ci thin c cu kinh t.
Pht trin a phng, x hi
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Cc ch tiu nh gi s ng gp ca d n vis pht trin nn KT
Gi tr sn phm gia tng (trc tip v gin tip).
Hiu qu kinh t vn u t.
Mc s dng nhn cng trong ncng gp cho ngn sch nh nc.
Tit kim ngoi t v tng thu ngoi t.
nh hng ca d n i vi mi trng sinh thi.
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Phn 2
Ni dung phn tch ti chnh
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Phn tch ti chnh
Thng qua phn tch ti chnh, ta xc nh quy mu t, c cu cc loi cc loi vn, ngun ti trcho d n; tnh ton thu chi l li, nhng li ch
mang li cho ch u t.
Phn tch ti chnh l qu trnh nghin cu nh gi
d n trn gc li ch ca ch u t cho d n
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Phn tch ti chnh
1. Xc nh tng vn u t,c cu vn u t,ngun ti tr v chi ph vn.
2. Xc nh cc khon thu, chi, li nhun
3. Xc nh cc ch tiu hiu qu u t4. Phn tch kh nng huy ng vn v thanh ton
ca d n
5. Phn tch nhy ca d n
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Phn tch ti chnh
Xc nh tng vn u t,c cu vn u t, ngunti tr v chi ph vn.
Tng mc u t ca d n:
- Vn c nh- Vn lu ng
- D phng vn u t
- Li trong thi gian xy dng- Thu VAT
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Phn tch ti chnh
Xc nh tng vn u t,c cu vn u t, ngunti tr v chi ph vn.
Ngun ti tr:
- Ngun vn ch s hu. Chi ph vn ch shu l chi ph c hi
- Ngun vn vay. Chi ph l li vay
Ch trc v sau thu
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Phn 3.
Cc phng php khu hao v tr n
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Cc phng php khu hao
Khi nim c bn v khu hao:
Nguyn gi P
Gi tr cn li SV
Gi tr cn tnh khu hao = P - SV Khu hao nm D
Gi tr cn li theo s sch Bx
Khu hao ly k
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Cc phng php khu hao
Phng php khu hao u (tuyn tnh,ng thng)
Phng php khu hao theo tng s nm hotng
Phng php khu hao theo kt s (gi tr
cn li) Phng php khu hao gia tc Phng php khu hao theo mc s dng
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Khu hao tuyn tnh KH u
Tin khu hao hng nm l khng i Cng thc tnh
Dx= (P-SV)/N = const Tx= DxBx = P - Tx= P - (P-SV)*x / N
K hiu:P: Nguyn gi tr TSC d nSV: Gi tr thu hi khi thanh lN: Thi hn khu haoDx: chi ph khu hao nm xBx: Gi tr TSC cn li cui nm (Bn= SV)Tx: Tng gi tr khu hao n nm t (khu hao lu k) (Tn=
P-SV)
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Khu hao theo tng s th t cc nm (SYD)
Tin khu hao nhiu cc nm u v gim dn ccnm sau
Tng s th t cc nm
Z = 1 + 2 ++ N = N(N+1)/2
Tin khu hao nm x
)()1(
)()1(
)12(
)(
)1(
)12(
)())1(...)1((
)()1(*
)1(*2
)(
)1(
1 SPZ
xNBB
SVPNN
xxNPB
SVP
NN
xxNT
SVPZ
tNNNT
SVPNN
xN
SVPZ
tN
D
xx
x
x
x
x
1 - 75Mt TSC c nguyn gi l 15.000$, gi tr cn li l 0$.
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Thi gian s dng d kin l 5 nm. Hy tnh chi ph khu haonm, khu hao lu k v gi tr cn li theo phng php khu
hao u.
Nm Khu hao nm KH lu k G.tr cn li
1 3000 3000 12000
2 3000 6000 9000
3 3000 9000 6000
4 3000 12000 3000
5 3000 15000 0
1 - 76Hy tnh chi ph khu hao nm, khu hao lu k v gi tr
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Hy tnh chi ph khu hao nm, khu hao lu k v gi trcn li theo phng php khu hao theo tng s nm
hot ng
Nm S nm Hcn li
Khu hao KH lu k Gi tr cnli
1 5a 5000 5000 10000
2 4a 4000 9000 6000
3 3a 3000 12000 3000
4 2a 2000 14000 1000
5 1a 1000 15000 0
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H tnh chi ph kh hao nm kh hao l k gi tr cn
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Hy tnh chi ph khu hao nm, khu hao lu k v gi tr cnli theo phng php s d gim dn c iu chnh.ACRS
Nm Khu hao KH lu k Gi tr cn li
1 6000 6000 9000
2 3600 9600 5400
3 2160 11760 3240
4 1620 13380 1620
5 1620 15000 0
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Kh h th kt l i ti DB
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Khu hao theo kt s cn li ca ti sn DB
Chi ph khu hao cc nm ln v sau nh dn, c xcnh bng tch s gia gi tr cn li cha khu hao cui mi nm vi mt h s khng i dx. Phng phpkhu hao ny l phng php kt s gim nhanh
Chi ph khu hao nm x
Dx= Bx-1. dxD1= B0. dx; D2= B1. dx; . Dn= Bn-1. dx; B0= PB1= B0- D1= P - P. dx= P (1 - dx)
B2= B1- D2= B1- B1. dx= P (1 - dx)2
.
Bx-1= P (1 - dx)x-1
Dx= P. (1 - dx)
x-1
Bx= Bx-1- Dx= P (1 - dx)x
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Khu hao theo kt s cn li ca ti sn
Ti cui nm N ta c:
Bn= P (1 - dx)N = SV
H s dxc xc nh
N
P
SV1dx
Vi phng php khu hao ny, nh u t thu vnnhanh hn ngay t u
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V d
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V d
Mt TSC c nguyn gi l 9.000$, gi tr cn li l 1.000$.Thi gian s dng d kin l 2 nm. Hy tnh chi ph khuhao v gi tr cn li cc nm theo phng php khu haotheo kt s
Mt thit b in, chi ph u t ban u: 16.000 USD, gi trthu hi d kin: 2.000 USD, tui th: 7 nm. Tnh chi phkhu hao v gi tr cn li qua cc nm vi 4 phng php.
Mt TSC c nguyn gi l 25000$,c chi ph khu hao l
mt hm tuyn tnh ca s sp sx. Sau khi sx c 100.000sp,gi tr cn li ca TSC l 5000$. n ht nm th 3 TSCny sx c 60.000sp, trong nm th t sx c 10.000sp.Hy tnh chi ph Khu hao nm th t, v gi tr cn li ca
TSC cui nm
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V d
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V d
Mt TSC c nguyn gi l 25000$,c chi ph khu hao lmt hm tuyn tnh ca s sp sx. Sau khi sx c 100.000sp,gi tr cn li ca TSC l 5000$. n ht nm th 3 TSCny sx c 60.000sp, trong nm th t sx c 10.000sp.Hy tnh chi ph Khu hao nm th t, v gi tr cn li ca
TSC cui nm .
Gii:
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C h th t & t li
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Cc phng thc tr vn gc & tr li
Tr vn gc u hng nm, tr li hng nm tnh theovn vay cn li
Tr vn gc cui thi hn vay, tr li u hng nm
Tr vn gc v li vo cui thi hn vay
Tr vn gc v li u hng nm Tr li vo u k hn vay, gc vo cui k hn vay
VD: Mt doanh nghip vay vn u t. Vn vay: 10.000triu ng. Li sut vay: 10%/nm. Thi hn vay: 5nm. Lp bng tr vn gc, tr li vay theo 5 phngthc. Nhn xt cc phng thc trn quan im ngivay v cho vay. Hnh thc no c li nht?
1 - 83
Li t
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Li sut l chi ph s dng vn ca vn vayLi kp: L cch tnh li m li ca k ny c tnhvo vn gc tnh li cho k tip theo.
Li n: Thng nhng khon vay c thi hn tnh li
t mt nm tr xung.Li sut danh ngha: Tnh theo tin t
Li sut thc t: Tnh theo sc mua
Li vay trc thu
Li vay sau thu
Li sut
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PHN 4 CC TIU CHUN
NH GI HIU QU D N
1 - 85
nh gi hiu qu d n
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nh gi hiu qu d n
Cc phng php la chn nh lng
Cc phng php gi tr tng ng
Sut thu li ni ti
Phn tch li ch - chi ph
Phn tch ho vn nh gi phn tch kinh t k thut.
Cc phng php la chn khc:
- Phng php lit k.
- Phng php cho im
- Phn tch chi ph
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Cc phng php nh gi hiu qu
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Cc phng php nh gi hiu qud n u t
Hai nhm phng php:
1. Cc phng php tnh: khng tnh n gi tr ca tin ttheo thi gian.
2. Cc phng php ng: tnh n gi tr ca tin t theothi gian:
Gi tr hin ti thun
T s li ch/chi ph
H s hon vn ni ti
Thi gian hon vn
1 - 87
Y khi h d
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Yu cu khi so snh cc d n
1. Cng mc tiu u t
2. Cng mi trng u t
3. Cng thi gian u t. - Phng php gia s thi gian
u t4. Cng vn u t. -Phng php gia s vn u t
1 - 88
1 Gi t hi t i th NPV
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1. Gi tr hin ti thun - NPV
NPV?
Chnh lch gia thu nhp
v chi ph ca d n quy v thiim hin ti vi t sut chit
khu thch hp
1 - 89
NPV (tip)
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NPV (tip)
Trong :
At dng tin mt nm t Btdng thu nm t
Ct dng chi nm t
i: t sut chit khu
Thng thng
C0 Chi ph u t
C1,2n Chi ph khai thc
n
t
tt
n
t
t CBA
00
)(
n
t
t
tt
n
t
t
t iCBiANPV
00
)1)(()1(
1 - 90
NPV (tip)
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( p)
La chn phng n u t theo tiu chun NPV
Phng n c lpNPV >= 0 Chp nhn
NPV < 0 Loi b
Phng n loi trNPV = Max v >=0 Ti u
Ch :Cng c th s dng gi tr tng lai thun NFV,gi tr u hng nm, gi tr hin ti doanh thu, gi tr
hin ti chi ph nh gi d n. Cc phng php u cho kt qu tng t
1 - 91
Cc phng php gi tr tng ng
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Gi tr hin ti thun (rng) - NPVGi tr u hng nm - AV
Gi tr tng lai - FV
mt kt qu ging nhau (nht qun).
Gi tr hin ti rng thun (NPV)
Gi tr tng ng hng nm AV
n)i,(A/P,*NPVAV
k)i,(P/F,*CFNPVn
0k k
Cc phng php gi tr tng ng
1 - 92
Gi tr hin ti thun - NPV
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Gi tr hin ti thun NPV
Nhn xt Tiu chun cho bit gi tr tuyt i ca li qui i
v hin ti Tiu chun NPV l hiu s ca PVB v PVC;
NPV = PVB - PVC Tiu chun NPV c s dng rng ri trong phn
tch v nh gi d n u t Tiu chun NPV ph thuc vo h s chit khu i
tnh n c thu, chi trong sut i d n L ch tiu c CSH quan tm nht
1 - 93
T sut chit khu
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T sut chit khuSut thu li ti thiu chp nhn c (MARR)
Sutthu litithiuchpnhnc(MARR) l mcli suttithiu(thpnht)cadn hay cavnchshum nhutchpnhnc.
Tlchitkhucsdngxc nhgi tri hintica
dng tinkvngphai tngxngvimcriro cadn ut L chi ph chicavnut(gc ti chnh) Khi quytnh, c tha ra MARR trc v sau thu,cn
cncvo dng sau thucaCSH.
Cnxc nhchnh xc MARR trckhi tnh ton cc chtiuhiuqudn Can cxc nhMARR
1 - 94
2 H s hon vn ni ti - IRR
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2. H s hon vn ni ti - IRR
IRR?
L mc li m d n to ratrn vn u t trong thigian hot ng
1 - 95
IRR (tip)
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IRR (tip)
Cng thc
Hay chnh l gi tr chit khu NPV = 0
IRR biu din t l thu hi ca mi d n
Nu d n ch c t l hon vn (IRR) l bng i, th cckhonthu nhptdn chhon trphnvngcutban uvo dn v trli.
Mtkhc, sut thu liniti IRR cn phnnh chi ph sdngvntiam nh utc thchpnhnc.
n
t
t
ttIRRCBNPV
0
0)1)((
1 - 96
IRR (ti )
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IRR (tip)
Cng thc tnh gn ng
21
1
121)(
NPVNPV
NPViiiIRR
i1: L h s chit khu ng viNPV1 > 0
i2: L h s chit khu ng viNPV2 < 0
ii2
i1
IRRNPV1
NPV2
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2006-PTVinh, HBK/KTQL Qun l d n
-Gi s:
NPV (I) = a >0NPV (I+5%) = -b
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2006-PTVinh, HBK/KTQL Qun l d n
Sut thu li ni ti IRR
nh gi phng n- D n c lp
IRR >MARR chp nhn phng n, phng n
ng gi IRR < MARR phng n s b bc b
IRR = MARR chp nhn phng n
- So snh ccphngn loitrnhau
Nuchnphngn viIRRmax th sc thcligiikhc viphngphp NPV.
1 - 99
Sut thu li ni ti IRR
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2006-PTVinh, HBK/KTQL Qun l d n
Nguyn tc so snh Phngn utlnhnchso snh viphngn c u
tb hn khi phng n c u t b hn l nggi theoIRR (IRR MARR)
Phngn c utlnhncchnkhi sutthu licagia s vn u t ln hn sut thu li ti thiu chp nhnc v ngc liphng n u t b hncchn khisutthu liniticagia svnutnhhnMARR.
1 - 100
Sut thu li ni ti IRR
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2006-PTVinh, HBK/KTQL Qun l d n
So snh cc d n loi tr nhau1. Sp xp cc d n theo th t tng dn v vn u t.
2. Chn phng n khng u t l p.n c th.
3. So snh phng n u tin vi p.n c th nu IRR (AI)MARR Th p.n so snh vi phng n c th c chn l
phng n c th
NuIRR (AI ) < MARR ginguynphngn cth
4. Lp li bc 3 n phng n cui cng. Phng n c th cui cng l PA tt nht.
1 - 101
Sut thu li ni ti IRR
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2006-PTVinh, HBK/KTQL Qun l d n
u im:Chobithiusutsdngvnutcadn. Hay tl
li trn vnutKhng gpkh khnkhi xc nhtsutchitkhu.
Thun li khi so snh cc d n c thi gian thc hin, vnu t khc nhau
Nhc im:Kh khn trong vic tnh tonKhng ph thuc vo chi ph vn =>nhn nh sai v kh
nng sinh li ca d n.Gp kh khn trong cc trng hp u t khng thng
thng.
Sut thu li ni ti IRR
1 - 102
3 2 T s li ch v chi ph B/C
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2006-PTVinh, HBK/KTQL Qun l d n
3.2 T s li ch v chi ph B/C
B/C?
L t sgia tng gi trhin ti ca thu nhpv
tng gi tr hin ti ca chiphd n
1 - 103
B/C (ti )
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2006-PTVinh, HBK/KTQL Qun l d n
B/C (tip)
Cng thc
n
t
t
t
n
t
t
t
iC
iB
PVC
PVB
C
B
0
0
)1(
)1(
1 - 104
B/C (tip)
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2006-PTVinh, HBK/KTQL Qun l d n
/C ( p)
nh gi phng n theo tiu chun B/C
Cc phng n c lp:B/C >= 1 Chp nhn
B/C < 1 Loi b
Cc phng n loi tr nhau:nh gi nh ch tiu IRR
Tiu chun B/C mang tnh tng i
B/C c p dng rng ri trong vic phn tch vnh gi cc d n c qui m khc nhau.
1 - 105
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2006-PTVinh, HBK/KTQL Qun l d n
Thng
B Thu nhp hin ti hng nm
I Vn u tO Chi ph vn hnh
M Chi ph bo dng
M)+(O+I
B=B/C
orM)]+(O+[IP
[B]P=
CostTotal
BenefitTotal=B/C
T sut li ch / chi ph (B/C)
1 - 106
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2006-PTVinh, HBK/KTQL Qun l d n
Thng
B Thu nhp hin ti hng nm
CR Vn u tO Chi ph vn hnh
M Chi ph bo dng
M)+(O+CRB=B/C
orM)+(O+[CRP
[B]P=
CostTotal
BenefitTotal=B/C
T sut li ch / chi ph (B/C)
1 - 107
3.4 Thi gian hon vn - Tp
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2006-PTVinh, HBK/KTQL Qun l d n
3.4 Thi gian hon vn Tp
Tp?
L thi gian cn thit thuhi vn u t ban u cho
d n
1 - 108
Phng php thi gian hon vn
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2006-PTVinh, HBK/KTQL Qun l d n
Phng php thi gian hon vn
Bao gm2 loil thigian hon vnginnvthigian hon vnc chitkhu.
Thi gian hon vn Tp l khong thi gian k
vng thu hi vn u t ca d n, bng cckhontch luvnhng nm.
Hay khongthigian cnthitthu hitonbvnutban ucadn.
1 - 109
T (ti )
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2006-PTVinh, HBK/KTQL Qun l d n
Thn(tip)
Cng thc
pT
t
t
tt iCBCF0
0)1)((
nh gi phng n theo tiu chun ThnTp< Tp* Chp nhn
Tp> Tp* Loi b
Tp= Tp* Xem xt
Tp= Min Ti u
Tp* l thi gian hon vn qui nh hoc mongmun
1 - 110
T (ti )
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2006-PTVinh, HBK/KTQL Qun l d n
Tp(tip)
Cng thc tnh gn ng
21
2121 )(
CFCF
CFtttTP
t1: L thi Im ng vi < 0
t2: L thi Im ng vi > 0
Thv t2tt1
NPV2
NPV1
1CF
2CF
1 - 111
TP (tip)
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2006-PTVinh, HBK/KTQL Qun l d n
TP(tip)
Tiu chun TPcho nh u t bit d n ny s honvn trong bao nhiu nm.
Tiu chun TPkhng xt dng tin sau khi hon vn.Khng nh gi ng mc sinh li ca d n C
trng hp d n A th c thi gian hon vn sm hnd n B, nhng NPV d n B li ln hn NPV d n A
Tiu chun TPo lng mc ri ro, c p dngrng ri trong phn tch v nh gi d n mang tnh riro cao
1 - 112
Phng php thi gian hon vn
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2006-PTVinh, HBK/KTQL Qun l d n
Thi gian han vn gin n ca d n
Nm 0 Nm1 Nm2 Nm3
CFt -100 30 30 60
CF tch ly -100 -70 -40 +20
nampT 67.2)23(4020
402
1 - 113
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2006-PTVinh, HBK/KTQL Qun l d n
Mi quan h gia cc phng n
Mt d n ng gi theo ch tiu NPV th c nh githeo cc ch tiu khc hay khng v ngc li?
Cc ch tiu NPV, IRR v B/C l tng ngMt phng n ng gi theo Tp th ng gi theo
NPV, IRR v B/C nhng khng c iu ngc li
1 - 114
Phn 4 Phn tch ti chnh
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2006-PTVinh, HBK/KTQL Qun l d n
Phn 4 Phn tch ti chnh
1. Xc nh dng tin d n, ch s hu
2. Phn tch nh hng ca khu hao
3. Phn tch nh hng ca lI vay
4. Phn tch nh hng ca lm pht
1 - 115
Dng tin d n
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2006-PTVinh, HBK/KTQL Qun l d n
Dng tin trc thu - CFBT
CFBT : (Cash flow befor tax)
CFBT = Doanh thu - Chi ph vn hnh - chi phu t
CFBTx = Rx - Cvhx - Ix
x = 0 CFBTo = Io
x 0 thng thng CFBTx = Rx Cvhx
Ch khi c thanh l TSC v thu hi VL Chi ph vn hnh: cc chi ph ca d n khng k
chi ph khu hao v li vay
1 - 116
Dng tin d n
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2006-PTVinh, HBK/KTQL Qun l d n
Dng tin sau thu - CFAT
CFAT = CFBT - thu thu nhp (TI) (1)TI =Thu nhp chu thu *Thu sut thu thu nhp(t)
(Li nhun trc thu)
TN chu thu =Doanh thu - Chi ph hp l hp l
(CP vn hnh + CP khu hao)
Thu nhp chu thu = CFBTx - Dx
Thu thu nhp = (CFBTx - Dx) . t
g
1 - 117
Dng tin d n
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2006-PTVinh, HBK/KTQL Qun l d n
g
CFATx = CFBTx - (CFBTx - Dx ) . t CFATx = CFBTx (1-t) + Dx . t (2)Dx . t :phn gim thu do khu hao
LN sau thu = (CFBTx - Dx ) - (CFBTx - Dx ) . t
= CFBTx (1 - t) + Dx. t - Dx
Li sau thu = CFATx - Dx
CFATx = LN sau thu + Dx (3)
Ch :dng tin sau thu khng phi l li sau thu
1 - 118
V d p dng
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2006-PTVinh, HBK/KTQL Qun l d n
Mt d n u t, u t 500 tr mua mt thit b dkin thc hin trong 5 nm, gi tr cn li cui nm T5l 0.Thu sut thu TN l 30%.TSC c khu haou trong 5 nm . Xc nh CFAT ca d n.D kindoanh thu hng nm v chi ph vn hnh hng nm nhsau :
Nam 1 2 3 4 5
Rx 270 260 250 240 230
CVHx 100 105 110 115 120
1 - 119Gii
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2006-PTVinh, HBK/KTQL Qun l d n
Khon mc 0 1 2 3 4 5
1 Chi ph u t ban u 500
2 Doanh thu 270 260 250 240 230
3 Chi ph vn hnh 100 105 110 115 120
4 CFBT (2-3-1) -500 170 155 140 125 110
5 Khu hao 100 100 100 100 100
6 Thu nhp chu thu (2-3-5) 70 55 40 25 10
7 Thu thu nhp (6xt) 21 16,5 12 7,5 3
8 Li sau thu (6-7) 49 38,5 28 17,5 7
9 CFAT (4-7) -500 149 138,5 128 117,5 107
1 - 120
Dng tin ch s hu
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2006-PTVinh, HBK/KTQL Qun l d n
Dng tin sau thu ca CSH CFATcsh CFATcsh = CFBT - tr vn gc - tr li vay - thu thunhp (1)
Thu thu nhp = Thu nhp chu thu x thu sut
TNCT = CFBT - D - Tr li vay
Thu thu nhp = (CFBT - Dtr li) . t
= (CFBT - D) . ttr li . t
Tr li . t = Phn gim thu do li vay
CFATcsh = LN sau thu Tr gc + Khu hao (2)
1 - 121
Dng tin n
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2006-PTVinh, HBK/KTQL Qun l d n
Dng tin vay n trc thu CFBTnCFBTn = Tr gc + Tr li vay
Dng tin vay n sau thu - CFATn
CFATn = CFBTn + Phn gim thu do tr lI
CFATcsh = CFATda + CFATn
1 - 122
V d p dng
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2006-PTVinh, HBK/KTQL Qun l d n
Mt d n u t, u t 500 tr mua mt thit b d kin
thc hin trong 5 nm, gi tr cn li cui nm T5 l 0.Thusut thu TN l 30%.TSC c khu hao u trong 5 nm .Xc nh CFAT ca d n, ch s hu, n. Bit rng d n
phi huy ng 200 tr vn vay , r = 10% /nm, tr u vn gc
trong 5 nm. D kin doanh thu hng nm v chi ph vn hnhhng nm nh sau :
Nam 1 2 3 4 5
Rt 270 260 250 240 230
CVHt 100 105 110 115 120
1 - 123Gii
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2006-PTVinh, HBK/KTQL Qun l d n
0 1 2 3 4 5
1 CFBT -500 170 155 140 125 110
2 Khu hao 100 100 100 100 100
3 Tr vn gc
4 Tr li vay
5 Tng tr n (CFBT n)
6 T.Nhp chu thu = 1-2-4
7 Thu thu nhp (6xt)
8 Li sau thu (6-7)
9 CFATCSH= 1-3-4-7
10 Gim thu do tr li vay
11 CFAT n = 5+10
12 CFATda = 9 - 11
1 - 124Gii
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2006-PTVinh, HBK/KTQL Qun l d n
0 1 2 3 4 5
1 CFBT -500 170 155 140 125 110
2 Khu hao 100 100 100 100 100
3 Tr vn gc (200/5) 40 40 40 40 40
4 Tr li vay
5 Tng tr n (CFBT n)
6 T.Nhp chu thu = 1-2-4
7 Thu thu nhp (6xt)
8 Li sau thu (6-7)
9 CFATCSH= 1-3-4-7
10 Gim thu do tr li vay
11 CFAT n = 5+10
12 CFATda = 9 - 11
1 - 125Ch
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2006-PTVinh, HBK/KTQL Qun l d n
Nu phng n huy ng c vn vay th CFAT ca d nkhc vi li sau thu + khu hao.
Chi ph u t ban u bao gm TSC v TSL (vn L)
Gi tr TSC nm cui cng c cng vo dng tin trcthu v cng thm vo dng tin sau thu ca d n thu thunhp (Thu nhp hot ng bt thng)
Vn lu ng : a dng gia tng VL vo dng tin ca dn.
Ch tiu Nm 0 1 2 3 4 5
Doanh thu 500 550 600 700 700
Nhu cu VLD 200 220 240 280 280
Gia tang vn -200 -20 -20 -40 0 +280
1 - 126BI tp p dng
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2006-PTVinh, HBK/KTQL Qun l d n
Mt d n u t c tng s vn u t ban u l 150 triu ng.
Trong vn u t cho TSC l 120 triu ng, cn li l vn lung. D kin d n thc hin trong nm nm. Doanh thu hng nm l80 triu ng v chi ph vn hnh hng nm l 30 triu ng. TSCc php tnh khu hao u vi thi gian tnh khu hao l 5 nm (gitr cn li bng 0). Cui nm th nm d n thanh l ti sn c nh vigi tr l 20 triu ng v thu hi vn lu ng l 30 triu ng.Thusut thu thu nhp l 20%.
a. Ch u t c u t d n hay khng khi chi ph s dng vn sauthu l 10%
b. Nu c NH cho vay 40% vn u t vi li sut 10%/nm, tr uvn gc trong 5 nm. Nh u t c nn vay hay khng?
1 - 127Gii NPV = 48.39
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2006-PTVinh, HBK/KTQL Qun l d n
0 1 2 3 4 5
1 Tng vn u t
2 Doanh thu
3 Chi ph vn hnh
4 Khu hao
5 Thanh l TSC
6 Thu hi Vn L
7 CFBT
8 Thu nhp chu thu
9 Thu TN
10 CFAT
11 B
12 C
1 - 128Gii
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2006-PTVinh, HBK/KTQL Qun l d n
0 1 2 3 4 5
1 CFBT -150 50 50 50 50 100
2 Tr gc (40%x150=60) 12 12 12 12 12
3 Tr li 6 4,8 3,6 2,4 1,2
4 Thu nhp chu thu 20 21.2 22,4 23,6 44.8
5 Thu thu nhp 4 4,24 4,48 4,72 8,96
6 CFATcsh -90 28 28,96 29,92 30,88 77,84
7
8
9
10
11
12
1 - 129
Phn 6: Phn tch nh hng khu hao
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2006-PTVinh, HBK/KTQL Qun l d n
CFATx = CFBTx (1-t) + Dx . t
1.nh hng ca thi gian tnh khu hao trong m
hnh khu hao u.
2.nh hng ca m hnh khu hao
1 - 130VD
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2006-PTVinh, HBK/KTQL Qun l d n
VD : Mt d n u t, u t vo thit b cng nghip l 1.200tr , c tnh dng trong 10 nm v gi tr cn li ca ti sn cnh cui nm th 10 l 200 tr nh thit b mi ny hng nmc th gim c 240 tr chi ph vn hnh.a) Xc nh dng tin sau thu ca d n trong trng hp lutquy dnh thi gian tnh khu hao l 10 nm v gi tr cn li = 0,
thu sut thu thu nhp 20%.b) Xc nh CFAT ca d n trong trng hp lut quy nh khoch trong 4 nm.c) Xc nh CFAT ca d n trong trng hp lut quy nh k
hoch trong 15 nmd) Xc nh NPV khi MARR = 10%
1 - 131
a, Thi gian khu hao l 10 nm
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2006-PTVinh, HBK/KTQL Qun l d n
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
CFBT -1200 +240 +240 +240 +240 +240 +240 +240 +240 +240 +240
DKH 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120
TN chuthu 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 320
ThuTN 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 64
Li sau thu 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 256
CFAT -1200 216 216 216 216 216 216 216 216 216 376
200
1 - 132Thi gian tnh l 4 nm: Hot ng khc c LN
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2006-PTVinh, HBK/KTQL Qun l d n
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 - 9 10
CFBT -1200 240 240 240 240 240 240 440
Khuhao 300 300 300 300 0 0 0
LN trcthu -60 -60 -60 -60 240 240 440
T.N chuthu 0 0 0 0 0 240 440
ThuTN 0 0 0 0 0 48 88
Li sau thu -60 -60 -60 -60 240 192 352
CFAT 240 240 240 240 240 192 352
1 - 133Thi gian tnh l 4 nm: Hot ng khc c LN>= 60
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2006-PTVinh, HBK/KTQL Qun l d n
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 - 9 10
CFBT -1200 240 240 240 240 240 240 440
Khuhao 300 300 300 300 0 0 0
LN trcthu -60 -60 -60 -60 240 240 440
T.N chuthu 240 440
ThuTN 48 88
Li sau thu 192 352
CFAT 192 352
1 - 134
Thi gian KH l 15 nm
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2006-PTVinh, HBK/KTQL Qun l d n
0 19 10
CFBT -1200 240 440
D 80 80 + 400
TNCT 160 -40
Thu TN 32 -8
Li sau thu 128 -32
CFAT -1200 208 448
1 - 135
Phn tch nh hng ca khu hao
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2006-PTVinh, HBK/KTQL Qun l d n
nh hng ca m hnh khu hao
D n tng kinh ph u t ban u l 10.000 v trong
gi tr ca TSC l 9000, VL 1000 d n tin hnh trong
2 nm gi tr cn li cui nm th 2 l 2000 trong gi
tr cn li ca TSC l 1000
D tnh doanh thu thun hng nm l 10.000, CPVH
hng nm 3000 xc nh dng tin sau thu ca d n khi
s dng m hnh khu hao u, theo kt s gi tr cn li,SYD thu sut thu thu nhp l 25%.
1 - 136Gii -m hnh khu hao u
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2006-PTVinh, HBK/KTQL Qun l d n
0 1 2ut -10.000
Khuhao D 4000 4.000
Doanh thu 10.000 10.000
CFVH 3.000 3.000
CFBT -10.000 7.000 7.000 + 2000
TNCT 3.000 3.000
ThuTN 750 750Li sau thu 2.250 2.250 + 2000
CFAT -10000 6.250 8.250
1 - 137Gii -m hnh khu hao nhanh
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2006-PTVinh, HBK/KTQL Qun l d n
0 1 2
ut -10000
Doanh thu 10000 10000
CFVH 3000 3000
CFBT 7000 7000 + 2000
K.h 6000 2000
TNCT 1000 5000
ThuTN 250 1250Li sau thu 750 5750
CFAT -10000 6750 7750
1 - 138
Gii -m hnh khu hao SYD
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2006-PTVinh, HBK/KTQL Qun l d n
0 1 2
ut -10000
Doanh thu 10000 10000
CFVH 3000 3000
CFBT 7000 7000 + 2000
K.H 5333 2667
TNCT 1667 4333
ThuTN 417 1083Li sau thu 1250 3250 + 2000
CFAT -10000 6583 7917
1 - 139
Phn tch nh hng khu hao
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2006-PTVinh, HBK/KTQL Qun l d n
Kt lun
1.nh hng ca thi gian tnh khu hao: Thi
gian tnh khu hao cng ngn cng c tt
2.nh hng ca m hnh khu hao: M hnh khu
hao cng nhanh cng tt
1 - 140
Phn 6: Phn tch nh hng ca lI vay
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2006-PTVinh, HBK/KTQL Qun l d n
Mt d n u t i hi doanh nghip b ra 1000$ v cho thunhp 1120$ cui mt nm. s tin l 1000$ l s tin chi mua1 ti sn s tin 1120$ l s tin thu c do hot ng v thuhi ti sn cui nm. nh gi d n ny nh u t sdng chi ph s dng vn l 10%.
+ t = 0%/ t = 20%
- 100% vn ch u t
- 100% vn vay vi li vay 10%
-50% vn vay vi li vay 10%
-Xc nh NPV, IRR ca CSH, DA v N
1 - 141
Phn tch nh hng ca lI vay
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2006-PTVinh, HBK/KTQL Qun l d n
g y
Nam 0 1 NPV (10%) IRR
CFBTDA -1000 1120 18,18 12%
CFBTn +1000 -1100 0 10%
CFBTCSH 0 20 18,18 Vo cung
1. Thu sut thu thu nhp = 0
2. Vay 100%
1 - 142
Phn tch nh hng ca lI vay
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2006-PTVinh, HBK/KTQL Qun l d n
1. Thu sut thu thu nhp = 0
2. Vay 50%
t 0 1 NPV (10%) IRR NPV (13%)
CFBTDA -1000 1120 18,18 12% -8,85
CFBTn +500 -550 0 10% +13,27
CFBTCSH -500 +570 18,18 14% 4,42
1 - 143
Phn tch nh hng ca lI vay
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2006-PTVinh, HBK/KTQL Qun l d n
+ MARR = rvay NPVn = 0
CFATcsh = CFATda + CFATn
NPVcsh = NPVda + NPVn
NPVcsh = NPVda
+ IRRda > rvay IRRcsh > IRRda
+ MARR > rvay
NPVn (MARR) > 0NPVcsh > NPVda
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Phn tch nh hng ca lI vay
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1. Vi thu sut thu thu nhp = 20%
2. D n huy ng 50% vn vay
t 0 1 NPV (8%) IRR NPV (10%)
CFATDA -1000 1096 14,81 9,6% -3,64
CFATn +500 -540 0 8% 9,091
CFATCSH -500 556 14,81 11,2% 5,455
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Phn tch nh hng ca lI vay
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2006-PTVinh, HBK/KTQL Qun l d n
1. Vi thu sut thu thu nhp = 20%
2. D n huy ng 100% vn vay
t 0 1 NPV (8%) IRR NPV (10%)
CFATDA -1000 1096 14,81 9,6% -3,64
CFATn +1000 -1080 0 8% 18,18
CFATCSH 0 16 14,81 V
cng
14,54
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Phn 7: Phn tch lm pht v phn tch gi
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2006-PTVinh, HBK/KTQL Qun l d n
Phn 7: Phn tch lm pht v phn tch gi
c bit trong phn tch d n
Hai trng hp:1. Khng c thu sut thu nhp doanh nghip
2. C thu sut thu nhp doanh nghip
1 - 147Khng c thu sut thu nhp doanh nghip
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2006-PTVinh, HBK/KTQL Qun l d n
Mt doanh nghip u t vo mua thit b mi vi gi 10000$
d kin s dng trong 5 nm v gi tr cn li = 0. c tnhmi nm DA bn 1600 sp, sn xut s sn phm ny ngita phi dng 2000 kg NV theo gi hin hnh 2$/1kg NVL. Gi
bn 10$/1SP, chi ph tin cng 8000$/1 nm. Gi s khng c
thu thu nhp, TSC c khu hao u trong 5 nm1. Gi tr trong 5 nm thc hin DA gi c u trn thc tkhng bin ng v gi ca cc hng ho v dch v s dngtrong DA cng khng bin ng. MARR = 10%.
2. Gi s mc tng gi khung trn TT l 5% (lp = 5%) v cchng ho v dch v trong DA cng tng theo 5%.
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2006-PTVinh, HBK/KTQL Qun l d n
0 1 2 5
1 Chi ph u t -10.000
2 Doanh thu 16.000 16.000 16.000
3 CVH 12.000 12.000 12.000
4 CFBT -10.000 4.000 4.000 4.000
C lm pht
1 Chi ph ut -10.000
2 Doanh thu 16.000.1,05 16.000. 1,055
3 CVH 12.000.1,05 12.000. 1,055
4 CFBT -10.000 4000.1,05 4000.1,052 4000.1,055
1 - 149Khng c thu sut thu nhp doanh nghip
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2006-PTVinh, HBK/KTQL Qun l d n
Khi khng c lmpht:
NPV= -10.000+4.000 (P/A,10%,5)=5163,16Khi c lmpht R = 15,5 %
NPV = 5163,168
Nhn xt
Trong trng hp khng phi ng thu thu nhp cc hng ho vdch v ca DA cng tng theo ng t l lm pht.
NPV trong trng hp c lm pht v khng c lm pht cng nhnhau.
Trong phn tch DA c th dng dng tin thc vi li sut thccng ging nh dng tin danh ngha vi li sut danh ngha.
1 - 150Trong trng hp thu sut 030%
0 1 5
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2006-PTVinh, HBK/KTQL Qun l d n
0 1 ..... 5
1 CFBT -10.000 4000 4000
2 Khuhao (D) 2000 2000
3 CFBT (1-t) 2800 2800
4 Dt 600 600
5 CFAT -10.000 3400 3400
C lm pht1 CFBT -10.000 4000.1,05 ........ 4000.1,055
2 Khuhao (D) 2000 ........ 2000
3 CFBT (1-t) 2800.1,05 ........ 2800. 1,055
4 Dt 600 ........ 600
5 CFAT -10.000 2800.1,05 + 600 ........ 2800. 1,055+600
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Trong trng hp thu sut 0,30%
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NPV = -10.000 + 3400 (P/A, 10%, 5) = 2888,2NPVlf = 2601,9
Nhn xt:
Lm pht lm cho li nhun DA gim
Lm pht nh hng n kh nng thanh ton caDA
Gi tr thc ca ng i vay s gim khi c lm
pht.