Sixth Northwest Electric Power and Conservation Plan Generating Resource Assessments Jeff King...

Sixth Northwest Electric Power and Conservation Plan

Generating Resource Assessments

Jeff KingNorthwest Power and Conservation Council

Portland, OR

July 17, 2007

July 17, 2008 2Northwest

Power andConservation

Council

NorthwestPower andConservation

Council

Purposes of the Regional Power Plan

• Philosophy: “Convincing Inspiration & guidance”

• Provide a forecast of regional need for electricity

• Identify cost-effective conservation and generating resources - Energy and capacity

• Model for utility planning

• Guide for BPA resource acquisition

• Analysis of regional electric power issues

• Conservation methodology for I-937

• Source of information and data



Council


Council

Statutory elements of the plan

• Energy conservation program including model conservation standards

• Recommendations for research and development• Methodology for determining quantifiable environmental

costs and benefits• Demand forecast of at least 20-years• Forecast of BPA Administrator’s resource obligations by

priority categories• Analysis of reserve and reliability requirements and cost-

effective methods of providing reserves• Fish and Wildlife Program• Optional surcharge methodology



Council


Council

Statutory provisions for resource selectionGive priority to resources determined to be cost-effective:

Reliable and available when needed Meet or reduce demand at incremental system cost no greater than any

alternative All direct costs over the effective life of the resource 10% credit to conservation resources

Give priority to the following resource types, in order:1. Conservation (energy-efficiency)

2. Renewable resources

3. Resources using waste heat or high fuel conversion efficiency

4. “.. all other resources"



Council


Council

Practical elements of the power plan

Description & analyses of key issues affecting the Northwest electric power system: Climate change Energy & capacity resource adequacy Fuel prices

A Resource Plan: The lowest cost/risk mix of efficiency and generating alternatives to meet regional demand growth

5-year Action Plan: Actions that need to be taken by various entities in order to achieve the resource plan

Technical Data: Detailed information on resource characteristics and costs, demand forecasts, fuel prices, and other inputs and assumptions



Council


Council

Sections of the regional plan

• Demand forecast

• Conservation and generating resource assessments

• Fuel price forecast

• Analysis of key regional issues

• Resource portfolio analysis

• 5-year action plan (2010 – 2014)

• Appendices w/supporting data & analyses



Council


Council

Power Planning Analytical Process

Efficiency Levelsand Improvement

Costs (PROCOST Model)

Resource Portfolio (Portfolio Risk Model)

Economic & Demographic

Forecasts

Cons Supply

Optimum Cons

Wholesale Price Forecast (AURORA Model)

Pric

e

Electricity Demand(Short & Long-term Demand

Forecasting Models)

Sale

s

Loa

d/U

nits

Loa

d

Regional Hydro/Adequacy Assessment

(GENESYS Model)H

ydro

New Capacity & Energy Resource Alternatives

Fuel PriceForecasts



Council


Council

Generating Resources Advisory Committee• Assist in the identification of significant generating

resources and technology alternatives

• Assisting in the identification of sources of technical, cost, environmental and other information concerning significant generating resources and technology alternatives

• Reviewing information and assumptions concerning generating resources and technology alternatives.

• Reviewing and interpreting Council analyses concerning generating resources and technology alternatives.



Council


Council

Other advisory committees

Demand forecasting Demand response Generating resources Natural gas Conservation supply curve Northwest Energy Efficiency Task Force Regional Technical Forum (standing) Wind Integration Forum (interim) Resource Adequacy (standing)



Council


Council

Sixth Power Plan Schedule

• Complete assumptions & forecasts: Nov 2008

• Analyize major issues: Dec 08 - Feb 09

• Develop resource portfolio: Sep 08 - Feb 09

• Write draft plan: Sep 08 - May 09

• Release of draft for public comment: May 09

• Public comment period: May - Jul 09

• Final plan development: Jun - Nov 09

• Adoption of final plan: Nov 09



Council


Council

Generating resource options - I

Potential major players (commercial and near-commercial) Natural gas combined-cycle plants Natural gas peaking plants (aero and frame gas turbines, recip. units) Wind plants Coal gasification combined-cycle (prohibited by state CO2 performance

standards w/o CO2 separation & sequestration (CSS)) Coal steam-electric plants (supercritical, ultra supercritical, CFBC, etc.)

(prohibited by state CO2 performance standards w/o CSS) Nuclear plants Solar-thermal plants (decent resources are external to region)

Potential major players (late in planning period) Wave power plants Offshore wind Engineered geothermal



Council


Council

Generating resource options - II

Limited potential Biomass and biogas residue plants “Conventional” geothermal (binary & flash steam) Solar photovoltaics Hydropower (new and expansion) Industrial cogeneration (gas, biomass, etc.) Tidal current plants

Related non-generating technologies CO2 separation – IGCC, conventional coal or combined-cycle CO2 sequestration - depleted oil or gas reservoirs (commercial, limited availability);

geologic, terrestrial, oceanic, biological, etc. (early development, substantial potential) Storage & flexibility technologies (pumped-storage, batteries, etc., etc.)

Far-out (beyond planning period)Space power satellitesNuclear fusion



Council


Council

Resource data & assumptionsCommercial status – Prerequisites & availability for deployment.

Application – Baseload energy, energy storage, load following, spinning reserve, etc.

Project development and construction lead time – Development and construction lead time and cash flow

Costs – Project development & construction, O&M, fuel, emissions, system integration, transmission, construction suspension, project termination and decommissioning.

Technical Performance – Efficiency (heat rate), planned and scheduled outages, seasonal & hourly variability, capacity factor (energy-limited renewables), unit size, emissions.

Potential – Amount of resource available for development in the region.



Council


Council

Tentative GRAC schedule I

• Meeting 1Intro to Sixth Power Plan

Interim power price forecast

Natural gas combined-cycle

Natural gas peaking plants

• Meeting 2 (late August/early September)Nuclear

Wind

Transmission

Solar-thermal

Portfolio risk model



Council


Council

Tentative GRAC schedule II

• Meeting 3 (October)CO2 Sequestration

Advanced steam coal & IGCC

Storage/flexibility augmentation options

Revised fuel price forecast

• Meeting 4 (November)Biomass

CHP

Geothermal

Solar photovoltaics

Offshore wind

Hydro, wave, hydrokinetic



Council


Council

Tentative GRAC schedule III

• Possible Meeting 5 (Q1 2009)Discuss analyses of key issues

Discuss resource portfolio analysis

Discuss 5-yr action plan

Sixth Northwest Electric Power and Conservation Plan Generating Resource Assessments Jeff King...

Documents

Transcript of Sixth Northwest Electric Power and Conservation Plan Generating Resource Assessments Jeff King...