Simulations Working Group

Presenters •  Pacific Engineering (Silva) •  Regional Academy of Natural Science

(Bykovstev) •  San Diego State/ETH (Olsen) •  UCSB (Archuleta) •  URS (Somerville) •  USGS (Zeng*)

Simulation Validation Validation There are seven earthquakes that will be used in the validation. Listed in order to perform the validation study: 2005 Riviere du Loup 1988 Saguenay 2000 Tottori 1994 Northridge 1989 Loma Prieta 1979 Imperial Valley 1999 Chi Chi For each earthquake the fixed parameters and the station locations are given.

The validation has several elements. The first is to determine a faulting model that has minimum bias and standard deviation of the spectral acceleration response spectrum (5% damped) at periods of 10 s, 7.5 s, 5.0 s, 4.0 s, 3.0 s, 2.0 s, 1.5 s, 1.0 s, 0.5 s, 0.3 s, 0.2 s, 0.1 s and 0.05 s. The passband of the data may not allow comparisons at 10 s and 7.5 s.

Simulation Parameters L: Rupture length. W: Rupture width. hTop: Vertical Depth to top of rupture plane. hypoStrike: Horizontal distance along strike from top center of rupture plane to the hypocenter, in local rupture plane coordinates. hypoDip: Vertical distance along dip from top center of rupture plane to the hypocenter, in local rupture plane coordinates. hypoLat: Latitude coordinate of hypocenter. hypoLon: Longitude coordinate of hypocenter. hypoDep: Vertical depth of hypocenter. M0: Seismic moment.

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Saguenay (Mw 5.8) Parameter Value rupL [m] 10000 ddW [m] 9900 hTop [m] 22000 hypoStrike [m] 520

hypoDip [m] 4413.5116

76 hypoLat [deg] 48.12 hypoLon [deg] -71.18 hypo [m] 26000 M0 [N-m] 5.85E+17 strike [deg] 320 dip [deg] 65 rake [deg] 78

Thickness [km] Vp [km/s] Vs [km/s] d[kg/dm^3] Qp Qs 1.44 4.5 2.6 2.3 500 250

6 5.5 3.4 2.5 1000 500 12 6.1 3.5 2.67 4000 2000 14 6.6 3.7 2.85 4000 2000 10 7 4 3.02 4000 2000 0 8.2 4.7 3.335 4000 2000

Stations

Longitude [deg]

Latitude [deg]

Vs30 (Wald & Allen, 2007) [m/s]

BSPQ -70.5057 47.4418 566.365 CHIQ -71.0123 48.4902 656.306 LMBQ -70.1527 47.6553 760 LMQ -70.3267 47.5483 467.178 QCQ -71.2760 46.7791 749.979

ROUQ -69.9966 47.4753 760 SANQ -71.9917 48.3248 760 SFA -70.8266 47.1244 500.744

SLBQ -70.0160 46.7418 760 STPQ -69.8045 47.4257 585.009 TADQ -69.7189 48.1432 760

Tottori (Mw 6.7) Parameter Value rupL [m] 40000 ddW [m] 20000 hTop [m] 500 hypoStrike [m] 0 hypoDip [m] 12000 hypoLat [deg] 133.35 hypoLon [deg] 35.275 hypo [m] 12500 M0 [N-m] 1.70E+19 strike [deg] 150 dip [deg] 90 rake [deg] 180

Thickness [km] Vp [km/s] Vs [km/s]

d[kg/dm^3] Qp Qs

2 5.5 3.179 2600 500 200 14 6.05 3.497 2700 500 200 12 6.6 3.815 2800 500 200 0 8.03 4.624 3100 500 200

Stations Longitude [deg] Latitude [deg] Vs30 (PEER) [m/s] OKY004 133.5018 34.9579 475.8 OKY005 133.7317 35.0098 293.4 OKY007 133.6121 34.7807 337.9 OKY008 133.9036 34.8701 450.6 OKY009 134.0923 34.9176 371.6 OKY014 133.7876 34.4462 362.2 OKY015 133.9256 35.2793 312.7 OKYH07 133.3169 35.0493 940.2 OKYH08 133.4055 34.9103 694.2 OKYH09 133.6765 35.1809 518.9 OKYH14 133.6205 34.9363 659.6 SMN002 133.0682 35.4714 138.8 SMN003 133.0929 35.1795 344 SMN004 132.9004 35.2881 281.4 SMN015 133.1704 35.3644 616.5 SMNH01 133.2604 35.2963 446.3 SMNH02 133.0856 35.2235 502.7 SMNH10 133.3031 35.5547 424.8 SMNH11 132.8033 35.4228 424.8 TTR005 133.8253 35.429 169.2 TTR006 133.6303 35.5106 352.7 TTR007 133.4902 35.2794 469.8 TTR008 133.3327 35.4227 139.2 TTR009 133.3113 35.1708 420.2 TTRH04 133.6307 35.4668 424.8

Rivière-du-Loup (Mw 4.6)

−70.5 −70.4 −70.3 −70.2 −70.1 −70 −69.9 −69.8 −69.747.2

47.3

47.4

47.5

47.6

47.7

47.8

47.9

48

A11

A54

A61

A64

LMQ

10 km

Riviere du Loup

Lon (deg)

Lat (

deg)

Epicenter

! Parameter Value hypoLat [deg] 47.75 hypoLon [deg] -69.73 hypo [m] 13000 M0 [N-m] 9.02E+15 strike [deg] 170 dip [deg] 60 rake [deg] 80

Saguenay (Mw 5.8)

−72 −71.5 −71 −70.5 −70 −69.546.6

46.8

47

47.2

47.4

47.6

47.8

48

48.2

48.4

48.6

BSPQ

CHIQ

LMBQ

LMQ

QCQ

ROUQ

SANQ

SFA

SLBQ

STPQ

TADQ

30 km

Saguenay

Lon (deg)

Lat (

deg)

EpicenterUpper fault trace

!

Distance Along Strike (km)

Dis

tanc

e D

own

Dip

(km

)

Saguenay

−5 −4 −3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3 4

−9

−8

−7

−6

−5

−4

−3

−2

−1

Fina

l Slip

(cm

)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

!

Tottori (Mw 6.7)

132.8 133 133.2 133.4 133.6 133.8 13434.8

34.9

35

35.1

35.2

35.3

35.4

35.5

35.6

OKY004

OKY005

OKY015

OKYH07

OKYH08

OKYH09

OKYH14

SMN002

SMN003

SMN004

SMN015

SMNH01

SMNH02

SMNH10

SMNH11 TTR005

TTR006

TTR007

TTR008

TTR009

TTRH04

30 km

Tottori

Lon (deg)

Lat (

deg)

EpicenterUpper fault trace

!

Distance Along Strike (km)

Dis

tanc

e D

own

Dip

(km

)

Tottori

−20 −15 −10 −5 0 5 10 15 20−20

−18

−16

−14

−12

−10

−8

−6

−4

−2

Fina

l Slip

(cm

)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

!

Northridge (Mw 6.7)

−118.9 −118.8 −118.7 −118.6 −118.5 −118.4 −118.3 −118.2 −118.134

34.05

34.1

34.15

34.2

34.25

34.3

34.35

34.4

34.45

34.5

BALD

CNPK

ECC

GRIF

HSBF

JENG

KAGC

LAWL

NEWH

NHCC

NORD

NWHP

PACD

PARD

RRS

RSE

SATI

SCRS

SMCH

SPVASSUS

SVSC

SYLM

TMPLTPFS

UCLG

VERM

VNUY

WADS

WOOD

10 km

Northridge

Lon (deg)

Lat (

deg)

EpicenterUpper fault trace

!Distance Along Strike (km)

Dis

tanc

e D

own

Dip

(km

)

Northridge

−10 −8 −6 −4 −2 0 2 4 6 8

−20

−15

−10

−5

Fina

l Slip

(cm

)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

!

Loma Prieta (Mw 7.0)

−122.5 −122 −121.5 −12136.2

36.4

36.6

36.8

37

37.2

37.4

37.6

COR

CAPUCS

GGC

SAR

ADLADDCLD

HVL

SAG

SAL

MCH

WFS

FMS

20 km

Loma Prieta

Lon (deg)

Lat (

deg)

EpicenterUpper fault trace

!

Distance Along Strike (km)

Dis

tanc

e D

own

Dip

(km

)

Loma Prieta

−15 −10 −5 0 5 10 15

−14

−12

−10

−8

−6

−4

−2

Fina

l Slip

(cm

)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

!

Imperial Valley (Mw 6.6)

−115.9 −115.8 −115.7 −115.6 −115.5 −115.4 −115.332.6

32.7

32.8

32.9

33

33.1

33.2

33.3

Mexicali

Agrarias

BondsCorner

Brawley

Calexico

Calipatria

Meloland

ECA1

ECA10

ECA11

ECA12ECA13

ECA2ECA3

ECA4ECA5ECA6ECA7

ECA8ECDA

Holtville

Parachute

Plaster

SAHOP

Superstition

Westmorland

10 km

Imperial Valley

Lon (deg)

Lat (

deg)

EpicenterUpper fault trace

!

Distance Along Strike (km)

Dis

tanc

e D

own

Dip

(km

)

Imperial Valley

−15 −10 −5 0 5 10 15

−12

−10

−8

−6

−4

−2

Fina

l Slip

(cm

)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

!

Chi Chi (Mw 7.6)

120.5 120.6 120.7 120.8 120.9 121 121.1 121.2 121.323.4

23.5

23.6

23.7

23.8

23.9

24

24.1

24.2

24.3

24.4

Fault 2

Fault 1

Fault 3

30 km

Lon (deg)

Lat (

deg)

Chi−Chi

Fina

l Slip

(cm

)

0

500

1000

1500

!

Bias, Confidence, Stdev

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Bias as a Function of Distance, T=1.0 s

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PGV as a Function of Distance

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101100

101

102

PGV

for F

ault

Para

llel (

cm/s

)

Observed DataSynthetic Data

101100

101

102

Epicentral Distance (km)

PGV

for F

ault

Norm

al (c

m/s

)

Observed DataSynthetic Data

132.8 133 133.2 133.4 133.6 133.8 13434.8

34.9

35

35.1

35.2

35.3

35.4

35.5

35.6

OKY004

OKY005

OKY015

OKYH07

OKYH08

OKYH09

OKYH14

SMN002

SMN003

SMN004

SMN015

SMNH01

SMNH02

SMNH10

SMNH11 TTR005

TTR006

TTR007

TTR008

TTR009

TTRH04

30 km

Tottori

Lon (deg)

Lat (

deg)

EpicenterUpper fault trace

!132.8 133 133.2 133.4 133.6 133.8 134

34.8

34.9

35

35.1

35.2

35.3

35.4

35.5

35.6

OKY004

OKY005

OKY015

OKYH07

OKYH08

OKYH09

OKYH14

SMN002

SMN003

SMN004

SMN015

SMNH01

SMNH02

SMNH10

SMNH11 TTR005

TTR006

TTR007

TTR008

TTR009

TTRH04

30 km

Tottori

Lon (deg)

Lat (

deg)

EpicenterUpper fault trace

!

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50−6

−4

−2

0

2

4

6

8

Velo

city

(cm

/s)

Observed Data, Fault Normal SMN003

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50−4

−3

−2

−1

0

1

2

Time (s)

Velo

city

(cm

/s)

Synthetic Data, Fault Normal SMN003

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50−15

−10

−5

0

5

10

15

20

Velo

city

(cm

/s)

Observed Data, Fault Parallel SMN003

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50−10

−5

0

5

10

15

20

Time (s)

Velo

city

(cm

/s)

Synthetic Data, Fault Parallel SMN003

Data and Synthetics$