SiC, Sapphire, GaN : what is the business evolution of · PDF filesemiconductor industry ... A...
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© 2016 FromTechnologies to Market SiC, Sapphire, GaN… : what is the business evolution of the non-Silicon based semiconductor industry? FromTechnologies to Market
Transcript of SiC, Sapphire, GaN : what is the business evolution of · PDF filesemiconductor industry ... A...
© 2016
From Technologies to Market
SiC, Sapphire, GaN… : what is
the business evolution of the
non-Silicon based semiconductor
industry?
From Technologies to Market
2©2016 | www.yole.fr | About Yole Développement
MEMS &
Sensors
Displays
Compound
Semi – LED
& OLEDs
Imaging Photonics
MedTech
Manufacturing
Advanced Packaging
Batteries / Energy
Management
Power
Electronics
FIELDS OF EXPERTISE
Yole Développement’s 30 analysts operate in the following areas
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A GROUP OF COMPANIES
Market,
technology and
strategy
consulting
www.yole.fr
M&A operations
Due diligences
www.yolefinance.com
Innovation and business maker
www.bmorpho.com
Manufacturing costs analysis
Teardown and reverse engineering
Cost simulation tools
www.systemplus.fr
IP analysis
Patent assessment
www.knowmade.fr
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A LOT OF SYNERGIES IN BETWEEN III-IV MATERIALS
©2016 | www.yole.fr | Semicon West - SiC/Sapphire/GaN
GaN/Sapphire*
LED RF GaN Power Electronics
GaN/SiC GaN/Si** GaN/SiC* GaN/Si**
*: Mainstream
**: Challenger
***:R&D
GaN/Si** SiC/SiC** Si/Si*
Do you see synergies and Business Opportuities?
GaN/GaN***
New
Business
New
Materials
New
Supplier
Integration
Issues
Growing
Markets
New
Entrant
New
Packaging
Supply
Chain
M&A
Due
Dilligences
GaNSiCSiSapphire
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PLAYGROUND
©2016 | www.yole.fr | Semicon West - SiC/Sapphire/GaN
LED RF GaN Power Electronics
GaN / SiC
GaN / SiC Material Related Material Related Equipment
Organisations
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SAPPHIRE INDUSTRY GROWTH DRIVERS: HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE
1892
First artificial
ruby and sapphire
by Auguste
Verneuil
First watch with a
sapphire window
19601929
Development of larger
and shaped sapphire
crystals for industrial and
military applications
First wafers
developed for Silicon
On Sapphire
applications
1970
Gems and Watches
Industry and specialty electronic
©2016 | www.yole.fr | Semicon West - SiC/Sapphire/GaN
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SAPPHIRE INDUSTRY GROWTH DRIVERS: HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE
1992
First blue
LED on
sapphire
substrates
First LED
growth cycle:
mobile
applications
20102000 2014
“LED Era”
Second LED cycle:
LCD TVs
Sapphire shortage
Softer LED growth +
sapphire excess
investment
Sapphire excess capacity
2012
Consumer Electronic
Applications (Camera lens
and fingerprint reader covers,
display covers…)
Consumer Electronic Era?
©2016 | www.yole.fr | Semicon West - SiC/Sapphire/GaN
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SAPPHIRE APPLICATION BREAKDOWN
Non LED applications now represent close to 30% of the total sapphire material consumption and are growing quickly.
©2016 | www.yole.fr | Semicon West - SiC/Sapphire/GaN
LEDOptical Wafers
Smartwatch
Cover Glass
Cell Phone
Cover Glass
Huawei
2015 Material Consumption Breakdown Per Applications.
(Note: excludes traditional watches, aerospace, defense etc…)
Kyocera
Total:
134M mm
of TIE
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SAPPHIRE WAFER FORECAST
• Revenue from wafers increased
17% in 2014 thanks to a
significant volume increase and
relatively stable average selling
prices compared to 2013.
• However, despite an anticipated
16% volume increase in 2015,
the 18% ASP drop will lead to
an overall decrease in revenue
for the year.
• We expect revenue to remain
essentially flat through 2017
and resume moderate growth
only after prices hit bottom
and stabilize around 2018.
Strong price pressure is offsetting volume growth and resulting in essentially flat revenue through the end of the decade.
©2016 | www.yole.fr | Semicon West - SiC/Sapphire/GaN
Volume growth + ASP
increase
(material shortage)
Large ASP
drop
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ALTERNATIVE SUBSTRATES
• GaN-on-Si performance is catching up with
sapphire. But the cost benefits are still not obvious.
• We believe that companies that are committed to
the technology will eventually make it work
(Toshiba or, to a lesser extend, Samsung) but we are
skeptical that it will deliver cost improvements vs.
sapphire that would be significant enough to trigger
a massive industry platform transition from sapphire
to silicon substrate.
• Decrease of 4” GaN substrate price closer to the
US$1800 mark could be a trigger point in term of
cost of ownership to start promoting adoption of
GaN-On-GaN. Companies committed to the
technology will be successful in the various niches
that benefit from high lumen density.
• SiC will loose ground as Cree, the only adopter
looses shares in term of global epitaxy capacity.
Announcement in July 2015 that the company is
restructuring its operations indicate that our
forecast might even be too conservative and that
SiC could loose ground faster than anticipated.
We expect sapphire to remain the dominant
substrate in the LED
industry for years to come.
©2016 | www.yole.fr | Semicon West - SiC/Sapphire/GaN
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OTHER WBG MATERIALS
Figure-of-merit
WBG is not limited to
GaN & SiC!
• Besides GaN and SiC, there are other materials that have even larger band gaps than GaN and SiC. These WBGmaterials can potentially further increase the performance of power devices.
0.01
0.10
1.00
10.00
10 100 1000 10000
On
-resi
stan
ce(m
Ω c
m2)
Breakdown voltage(V)
Si
SiC
GaN
Ga2O3
Diamond
AlN
©2016 | www.yole.fr | Semicon West - SiC/Sapphire/GaN
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WBG MATERIALS FOR POWER ELECTRONICS OVERVIEW
Structure of the report
©2016 | www.yole.fr | Semicon West - SiC/Sapphire/GaN
• This report describes the landscape of different WBG materials for power electronics applications.
WBG
SiC Device
GaN DeviceGaN on Si
GaN on GaN FS/Bulk GaN
Ga2O3
Diamond
AlN
SiC epi
Epi on Silicon
SiC wafer
Today
Tomorrow
Alternative solutions
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WBG MARKET SEGMENTATION AS A FUNCTION OF VOLTAGE RANGE
Current status and Yole’s vision for 2020*
While SiC isused for high
voltage applications, GaN-on-Si ismainly used
for lowvoltage. The 600-900V
range will bethe
battlefield.
UPSEV/HEV
Motor
ControlPV Inverter
Wind Mills
600 V
Rail Transport.
Smart Power Grid
<200 V 1.2 kV 3.3kV 6.5 kV+
Ships & VesselsPFC/ Power supply
Audio Amplifier
SiC Transistors 2015GaN –on-Si Transistors 2015
SiC diodes
©2016 | www.yole.fr | Semicon West - SiC/Sapphire/GaN
Medium-Voltage High-VoltageLow-Voltage
GaN-on-Si Transistors 2020
SiC Transistors 2020
900 V 1.7 kV
Battle
fields
Co-existing * Based on current development status
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SIC & GAN POWER DEVICE MARKET
to 2020
The GaN-on-Si devicemarket is
expected to grow muchfaster than
SiC.
GaN-on-Si CAGR 2014-2020: 95% !
SiC CAGR 2014-2020 : 22%
The total WBG device market is estimated at $139M in 2014 and expected to
be $743M in 2020, in a $12.7B overall device market.
* GaN-on-Si nominal scenario is considered.
©2016 | www.yole.fr | Semicon West - SiC/Sapphire/GaN
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CONCLUSION: HOW TO ACCELERATE SIC ADOPTION
©2016 | www.yole.fr | Semicon West - SiC/Sapphire/GaN
Accelerator LimiterScientistDream
Optimistic
Performances are better
Obviously the next
generation
Designer Challenge
Realistic
How do use the device
How do catch the
performance
How Long to develop
Whychanging?
• Propose directly the converter as a « Black Box »
• Propose directly the optimized power module
• Propose new manufacturing processes
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WBG MATERIAL COST AND WAFER SIZE COMPARISON
8-inch Si wafer as reference
GaN on Si is the most
interesting WBG
technology in terms of cost
and wafer size.
©2016 | www.yole.fr | Semicon West - SiC/Sapphire/GaN
* Nominalized with respect to 8-inch silicon wafer
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RF COMPONENTS OVERVIEW (1/2)
RF Devices
Solid State Electronic Devices
Si GaAs GaN SiC InP SiGe
Vacuum Electronic Devices (VEDs)*
* There are numerous vacumm
device types, including Gyotron,
Klystron, and traveling-wave tubes
( TWTs).
The following table lists the pros and cons of solid state electronic devices compared to VEDs.
Pros Cons
• Lower maintenance cost
• Instantaneous operation
• Wider Bandwidth
• Smaller size and lower weight
• Cheaper, lighter power supplies
• Reduced electron velocity in the semiconductor
• Thermal limitation caused by semiconductor
thermal impedance
• Lower bias voltage Lower output power
©2016 | www.yole.fr | Semicon West - SiC/Sapphire/GaN
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Multiple
Competiting
technologies
Few
Competiting
technologies
POWER AND FREQUENCY REGIONS FOR DIFFERENT SEMICONDUCTORS
GaN enables new possibilities for both high-power and high-frequency.
Courtesy of RFMD
©2016 | www.yole.fr | Semicon West - SiC/Sapphire/GaN
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GAN HEMT DEVICE STRUCTURE
2DEG electron confinement makes GaNHEMT capable of a drain current density about ten times higher than that of Si devices.
Energy
2DEG: In 2DEG, or “two-
dimensional electron gas”,
the gas is free to move in a
two-dimensional plane
parallel to the AlGaN and
GaN hetero-interface, but
not perpendicular to it
because of the two potential
barriers confining the
potential well.
Source Drain
AlGaN
GaN
Buffer
Substrate: Si/SiC…
Gate
2DEG
The concentration of 2DEG is about 1 × 1013 cm-2 , making GaN HEMT capable
of a drain current density about ten times higher than that of Si devices.
©2016 | www.yole.fr | Semicon West - SiC/Sapphire/GaN
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GAN’S ADDED VALUES
GaN offersvariousbenefits at system level.
High voltage
operation
High current
density
High
Frequency
GaN material properties HEMT benefits RF System benefits
High power
Wide band
gap
High charge
density
High electron
mobility
Higher
impedanceTemperature
tolerance
Smaller size
Wider
bandwidth
High efficiency
Lower
capacitance
Ruggedness
Low Noise
PA
LNA
Switch
VCO
Mixer
Gain Block
Phase shifters
Var. Attenuators
Possible applications
©2016 | www.yole.fr | Semicon West - SiC/Sapphire/GaN
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VHF UHF
Data broadcastDefenseWireless Communication
APPLICATIONS FOR GAN DEVICES IN RF ELECTRONIC SYSTEMS
Today, power amplifiers are the main area of GaNadoption for these applications.
5G BTS
(25 – 60 GHz)
Long-Term
Evolution
0.7 – 2.6 GHz
Radar, guided missiles,
countermeasure, …
(2-4 to 8-12 GHz)
V-SAT
(12 – 40 GHz)
Si LDMOS GaAs pHEMT, HBT, SiGe, or vacuum tubes
CATV
(< 1GHz)
SatCom
(13 – 14 GHz)
2.3 – 5 GHz
L S C X Ku K Ka
Throughput
Antenna Size
Band Spectrum
Susceptibility to Rain Fade
Higher
Smaller
Larger
MoreLess
Narrow
Larger
Lower
Band
700 MHz 5 GHz 8 GHz 40 GHz2 GHz 12 GHz
GaNGaNGaN
©2016 | www.yole.fr | Semicon West - SiC/Sapphire/GaN
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GAN RF DEVICES: MARKET BREAKDOWN
Comparison by application: 2015 - 2022
TOTAL
~ $298M
©2016
Yole Développement
TOTAL
~ $755M
©2016
Yole Développement
CAGR + 14%
©2016 | www.yole.fr | Semicon West - SiC/Sapphire/GaN
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GAN-ON-SIC AND GAN-ON-SILICON MARKET STRATEGIES
GaN-on-SiCand GaN-on-Silicon have begun targeting different markets.
Volu
me
©2016 | www.yole.fr | Semicon West - SiC/Sapphire/GaN
Device Cost
Mobilehandset?
WirelessInfrastructure
VSAT
Defense
RF Energy
Cost-
drivenPerformance-
driven
GaN-on-SiC
GaN-on-Silicon
GaN-on-Silicon will be a good
candidate for high-volume, cost-
sensitive applications with a
sufficient performance
amelioration.
GaN-on-SiC will be dedicated to
improving performance, and an
acceptable price would be satisfying.
Fiber-optic
CATV
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GAN-ON-SIC AND GAN-ON-SILICON: FUTURE DEVELOPMENT SCHEME
GaN-on-Silicon will become
cost-driven and GaN-on-SiC will be more
performance-driven.
• Based on the current situation and available information, GaN-on-SiC will likely continue dominating the GaN RFindustry over the next five years.
©2016 | www.yole.fr | Semicon West - SiC/Sapphire/GaN
GaN-on-SiC
First device
2000 2005 2010 2015
LTE
GaN-on-Silicon
Defense
5G
CATV
RF Energy
CATVVSAT
Mobile
Handset?
Fiber
optic
2020 2030
Fiber
optic
VSAT
5G
Scenario 2: The first 5G implantations are realized with
GaN-on-SiC. GaN-on-Silicon eventually catches up and
takes over the market share, making it possible to
penetrate RF energy and other applications, even
mobile handsets.
LTE
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CONCLUSIONS & OUTLOOK
From research level to market volume
Compound Semiconductors are catching up in large volume market or fast growing market:
LED
Power Electronics
RF
Sapphire, GaN, SiC and even GaAs, InP provide intrinsec properties fitting with applicationrequirements and new challenges
High Frequency
High Power
Lower Losses
Smaller System size
…
Even though there market size may be small compare to Silicon based device market, (Power &RF), their capability to catch double growth make these material really attractive for futuretechnologies.
©2016 | www.yole.fr | Semicon West - MEMS Presentation
