Should We Legalize Marijuana? Prashant Foneska Ana Kostioukova Dominic Lo Prashant Foneska Ana...
-
Upload
brianne-hester-chambers -
Category
Documents
-
view
219 -
download
0
Transcript of Should We Legalize Marijuana? Prashant Foneska Ana Kostioukova Dominic Lo Prashant Foneska Ana...
Should We Legalize
Marijuana?
Should We Legalize
Marijuana?
Prashant FoneskaAna Kostioukova
Dominic Lo
Prashant FoneskaAna Kostioukova
Dominic Lo
Debate Over LegalizationDebate Over Legalization“After generations of defending capital punishment and marijuana possession laws on moral, ethical and religious grounds, after years of declaring that the death penalty acted as a deterrent against violent crime and that pot smokers were more dangerous to society than, say, alcohol consumers, all of a sudden thanks to our economic crisis more and more mainstream powerbrokers are considering dramatic changes to our criminal justice system.” -CBSNews, Feb 25, 2009 by Andrew Cohen
“After generations of defending capital punishment and marijuana possession laws on moral, ethical and religious grounds, after years of declaring that the death penalty acted as a deterrent against violent crime and that pot smokers were more dangerous to society than, say, alcohol consumers, all of a sudden thanks to our economic crisis more and more mainstream powerbrokers are considering dramatic changes to our criminal justice system.” -CBSNews, Feb 25, 2009 by Andrew Cohen
$68 billion per year on corrections, 1/3 nonviolent drug crimes.
$150 billion on policing and courts, and 47.5% of all drug arrests are marijuana-related.
Potential for thousands of new jobs in agriculture, packaging, marketing and advertising.
$68 billion per year on corrections, 1/3 nonviolent drug crimes.
$150 billion on policing and courts, and 47.5% of all drug arrests are marijuana-related.
Potential for thousands of new jobs in agriculture, packaging, marketing and advertising.
Marijuana in California Marijuana in California Currently only legal for
medical use Marijuana Control,
Regulation, and Education Act (AB 390) could legalize Marijuana for people under 21
Largest cash crop in California, with annual revenues approaching $14 billion.
A 10% “pot tax” would yield $1.4 billion in California alone.
Currently only legal for medical use
Marijuana Control, Regulation, and Education Act (AB 390) could legalize Marijuana for people under 21
Largest cash crop in California, with annual revenues approaching $14 billion.
A 10% “pot tax” would yield $1.4 billion in California alone.
Does a link between marijuana use and crime/unemployment exist?
What is marijuana’s impact versus substitutes, alcohol and other illicit
drugs?
Does a link between marijuana use and crime/unemployment exist?
What is marijuana’s impact versus substitutes, alcohol and other illicit
drugs? Factors we
considered: Population Density Median income Education Median age Population age 18 -24 Children in low
income families Marijuana use Alcohol use Other Illicit drug use
Factors we considered:
Population Density Median income Education Median age Population age 18 -24 Children in low
income families Marijuana use Alcohol use Other Illicit drug use
15 California Regions Included in the Analysis
15 California Regions Included in the Analysis
PredictionsPredictionsType of Variables Expected Sign for
CrimeExpected Sign for Unemployment
Population per square mile (2005 estimate)
+ +
Median Family Income – –% High School
Graduates – –
Median Age – +% population age 18-24
+ +
Children ( age 0-17) in low income families
+ +
Marijuana + +Alcohol + +Other Illicit Drugs + +
Crime RegressionCrime RegressionCoefficients Standard Error t Stat
Intercept 4798.39725 1996.93817 2.40287
Pop./sq mi (2005 estimates)*
0.02348 0.04218 0.55670
Median Family Income
-0.016595 0.01026 -1.61707
% of HS Graduates 2000 Census
-10.31613 15.06715 -0.68467
Median Age -33.49329 29.31520 -1.14252
% Population 18-24 -56.77881 35.50606 -1.59913
Children 0-17 in Low Income Families
-1063.10066 1385.77276 -0.76715
Marijuana Use (Past Month)
-902.18498 4231.57732 -0.21320
Alcohol Use (Past Month)
344.06654 2218.29846 0.15510
Illicit Drug Use 12087.98125 24232.66805 0.49882
Crime FindingsCrime Findings 1% increase in Marijuana use leads
to 9 less felonies per 100,000 people
1% increase in Alcohol use leads to 3-4 more felonies per 100,000 people
1% increase in Other Illicit Drug use leads to 120 more felonies per 100,000 people.
1% increase in Marijuana use leads to 9 less felonies per 100,000 people
1% increase in Alcohol use leads to 3-4 more felonies per 100,000 people
1% increase in Other Illicit Drug use leads to 120 more felonies per 100,000 people.
Crime RegressionCrime Regression
SUMMARY OUTPUT FELONY (per 100,000)
Regression StatisticsMultiple R 0.5911135R Square 0.3494152Adjusted R Square 0.2274305Standard Error 369.31737Observations 58
ANOVAdf SS MS F Significance F
Regression 9 3516240.441 390693.4 2.864419 0.008695677Residual 48 6546975.249 136395.3Total 57 10063215.69
Unemployment RegressionUnemployment RegressionCoefficients Standard
Errort Stat
Intercept 0.13457 0.07516 1.79033
Pop./sq mi (2005 estimates)*
2.12572E-06 1.58781E-06 1.33877
Median Family Income -3.51997E-07 3.86263E-07 -0.91128
% of HS Graduates 2000 Census
-0.00246 0.00057 -4.33176
Median Age 0.00158 0.00111 1.43563
% Population 18-24 -0.00029 0.00134 -0.22113
Children 0-17 in Low Income Families
0.00212 0.05216 0.04059
Marijuana Use (Past Month)
-0.06984 0.15927 -0.43848
Alcohol Use (Past Month)
0.09322 0.08349 1.11642
Illicit Drug Use 0.97717 0.91210 1.07134
Unemployment FindingsUnemployment Findings 1% increase in Marijuana use leads
to .07% decrease in unemployment
1% increase in Alcohol use leads to .09% increase in unemployment
1% increase in Other Illicit Drug use leads to .97% increase in unemployment
1% increase in Marijuana use leads to .07% decrease in unemployment
1% increase in Alcohol use leads to .09% increase in unemployment
1% increase in Other Illicit Drug use leads to .97% increase in unemployment
Unemployment Regression
Unemployment Regression
SUMMARY OUTPUT UNEMPLOYMENT
Regression StatisticsMultiple R 0.8271888R Square 0.6842412Adjusted R Square 0.6250365Standard Error 0.0139009Observations 58
ANOVAdf SS MS F Significance F
Regression 9 0.020099327 0.002233 11.5572 2.16981E-09Residual 48 0.009275294 0.000193Total 57 0.029374621
ConclusionConclusion According to our model marijuana does
not increase serious crime or unemployment rates.
Alcohol and especially other illicit drugs (hard drugs) pose a much worse problem
Marijuana slightly decreases serious crime and unemployment rates
Our findings show that marijuana use does not pose a threat to society and supports the case for the legalization of marijuana
According to our model marijuana does not increase serious crime or unemployment rates.
Alcohol and especially other illicit drugs (hard drugs) pose a much worse problem
Marijuana slightly decreases serious crime and unemployment rates
Our findings show that marijuana use does not pose a threat to society and supports the case for the legalization of marijuana
Descriptive StatisticsDescriptive StatisticsPopulati
on%
Unemp.Pop./sq
miMed. Inc
% HS Grad
Med. Age % 18-24
0-17 Low Mj. Use Alc. Use Illicit Use
Mean 656025.2069
0.062758621
498.5517241
53158.7069
78.73965517
36.11551724
9.143103448
0.444482759
0.082775862
0.524944828
0.041625862
Std. Error 194799.6796
0.002980813
169.8759577
2236.353696
1.053364212
0.608041503
0.325114453
0.015614403
0.002683146
0.005951243
0.000512821
Median 180979 0.057 98.5 50525.5
80.9 35.4 9.2 0.43 0.0823 0.5323 0.0421
Mode #N/A 0.08 2 48489 82.3 36.4 10.3 0.43 0.1143 0.5323 0.046
Std. Dev. 1483550.161
0.022701194
1293.73675
17031.56233
8.022182834
4.630706123
2.475997908
0.118915751
0.020434227
0.045323319
0.003905532
S. Variance
2.20092E+12
0.000515344
1673754.778
290074115.5
64.35541742
21.4434392
6.130565638
0.014140956
0.000417558
0.002054203
1.52532E-05
Kurtosis 32.93717297
3.581056355
29.59782899
1.344590518
-0.51438
2955
-1.0314828
06
2.073173024
-0.557338
498
-1.0606293
47
0.036769299
-0.283866
649
Skewness 5.270688787
1.465061916
5.053458472
1.010867219
-0.62281
6024
0.375424346
0.776584806
-0.030547
283
0.488204307
-0.75261005
6
-0.641289
2
Range 10362628
0.12 8712 81799 32.2 15.6 13.5 0.49 0.0619 0.1717 0.0145
Minimum 1222 0.034 2 30356 59 29 4.8 0.16 0.0524 0.4274 0.0315
Maximum 10363850
0.154 8714 112155 91.2 44.6 18.3 0.65 0.1143 0.5991 0.046
Sum 38049462
3.64 28916 3083205
4566.9 2094.7 530.3 25.78 4.801 30.4468 2.4143
Count 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58
Sources of DataSources of DataBackground:
http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1889021,00.html (Time Magazine, CNN News) http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/02/25/opinion/courtwatch/main4828659.shtml (CBS News)
http://www.oas.samhsa.gov/ (Office of Applied Studies: National Study on Drug Use and Health)
Independent Variables: http://www.csac.countries.org/ (California State Association of
Counties) http://www.labormarketinfo.edd.ca.gov/?pageid=1008 (California
Employment Development Department) http://publications.childrennow.org/ (Children Now)
http://censtats.census.gov/cgi-bin/usac/usacomp.pl(US Census) http://ca.rand.org/stats/ (Rand California Statistics)
Background: http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1889021,00.html (Time Magazine, CNN News) http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/02/25/opinion/courtwatch/main4828659.shtml (CBS News)
http://www.oas.samhsa.gov/ (Office of Applied Studies: National Study on Drug Use and Health)
Independent Variables: http://www.csac.countries.org/ (California State Association of
Counties) http://www.labormarketinfo.edd.ca.gov/?pageid=1008 (California
Employment Development Department) http://publications.childrennow.org/ (Children Now)
http://censtats.census.gov/cgi-bin/usac/usacomp.pl(US Census) http://ca.rand.org/stats/ (Rand California Statistics)