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Page | 1 | PHILLIP SECURITIES RESEARCH (SINGAPORE) MCI (P) 019/11/2014 Ref. No.: SG2015_0111

ASEAN Spending Habits

What are consumers buying? REGIONAL | CONSUMER | SECTOR NOTE

8 April 2015

While MNCs court China and India as their next frontier markets, Southeast Asia consists of emerging nations with expanding purse strings. We looked at the spending habits of consumers within the five largest ASEAN countries by GDP: Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines and Thailand. Key takeaways

Singaporeans are eating out more often, at higher price-point establishments, and spending more to beautify their homes.

Malaysians expenditure increased at half the pace of its income, with communication spending posting the fastest growth. The GST implementation impact remains uncertain.

Indonesia is home to the most optimistic consumers in ASEAN. They are eating out more, demanding convenience and increasing discretionary spending.

Filipinos saved more in 2012, compared to 2006. Recreation and culture products and services spending recorded the fastest growth between 2009 and 2012. Food and non-alcoholic beverage maintains the lion share of expenditure.

Thais are buying food prepared outside of home more often now. Debt-financed expenditure is growing. The average household debt was 6.5x of its income in 2013, up from 5.6x in 2000.

SGX-listed consumer companies with exposure to these markets

Singapore: Breadtalk Group Ltd, Courts Asia Ltd. Fraser and Neave, Ltd, Japan Foods Holding Ltd. Q&M Dental Group Singapore Ltd, Sheng Siong Group Ltd, Yeo Hiap Seng Ltd

Malaysia: Parkson Retail Asia

Indonesia: Dairy Farm International Holdings, Japfa Ltd., Jardine Cycle & Carriage Ltd, Petra Foods Ltd

Philippines: Del Monte Pacific Ltd

Thailand: Thai Beverage Pcl

Shane Goh (+65 6531 5440)

Investment Analyst

[email protected]

Page | 2 | PHILLIP SECURITIES RESEARCH (SINGAPORE)

CONSUMER SECTOR NOTE

Figure 1: SGX-listed consumer companies with exposure to ASEAN markets Company Bloomberg

Ticker

Rating Mkt Cap

(SGD mn)

EV

(SGD mn)

EV/EBTIDA EV/EBTIDA

FY1

EV/EBTIDA

FY2

P/E P/E

FY1

P/E

FY2

Net D/E

(%)

ROA

(%)

ROE

(%)

P/B

Singapore

Breadtalk Group Ltd BREAD SP N.R. 379 495 6.8 5.9 5.1 31.1 22.4 19.2 88.4 2.5 12.4 3.7

Courts Asia Ltd. COURTS SP N.R. 242 473 7.7 8.7 7.7 13.3 13.2 10.0 77.5 4.0 9.6 0.8

Fraser and Neave, Ltd FNN SP Reduce 4,050 4,227 11.9 14.1 16.1 95.1 29.6 36.1 Net Cash 1.8 2.9 2.5

Japan Foods Holding Ltd. JFOOD SP N.R. 85 70 6.4 - - 19.1 - - Net Cash 20.1 26.9 3.0

Q&M Dental Group Singapore Ltd QNM SP N.R. 506 519 45.0 22.9 19.3 63.6 40.6 34.2 10.0 8.1 14.0 9.2

Sheng Siong Group Ltd SSG SP Buy 1,203 1,072 14.9 14.4 13.7 24.2 21.7 20.5 Net Cash 16.1 24.7 5.1

Average 15.5 13.2 12.4 41.1 25.5 24.0 58.6 8.8 15.1 4.1

Malaysia

Parkson Retail Asia PRA SP N.R. 406 203 3.9 4.0 3.2 14.6 14.6 11.8 Net Cash 8.2 14.2 1.7

Indonesia

Dairy Farm International Holdings DFI SP N.R. 17,212 16,708 17.8 15.2 13.8 25.0 23.4 21.3 Net Cash 12.3 37.6 8.9

Japfa Ltd. JAP SP N.R. 900 2,283 6.5 5.6 4.0 18.8 10.9 8.6 71.6 1.5 5.9 1.0

Jardine Cycle & Carriage Ltd JCNC SP N.R. 15,010 28,370 8.0 7.8 7.1 13.5 12.2 11.0 36.2 4.1 18.7 2.4

Petra Foods Ltd PETRA SP N.R. 2,280 2,150 19.5 16.8 14.4 33.8 26.5 22.4 Net Cash 10.4 16.6 5.7

Average 13.0 11.4 9.8 22.8 18.3 15.8 53.9 7.1 19.7 4.5

Philippines

Del Monte Pacific Ltd DELM SP N.R. 758 3,420 - 174.2 24.8 25.2 - 9.6 63.4 2.9 6.7 1.8

Thailand

Thai Beverage Pcl THBEV SP N.R. 19,586 21,637 18.7 17.1 16.0 21.8 19.3 18.0 45.4 12.2 22.2 4.6

Simple Average 13.9 25.6 12.1 30.7 21.3 18.6 56.1 8.0 16.3 3.9 Source: Bloomberg, Phillip Securities Research (Singapore) Estimates



Singapore Singapore’s GDP per capita has grown remarkably since 2000. Since then, it has overtaken key global markets such as US, UK, Japan and Hong Kong. Currently, it is one of the highest in the world. Figure 2: Singapore boasts one of the highest GDP per capita worldwide

Source: World Bank, Phillip Securities Research (Singapore)

Monthly household income grew faster than expenditure. In the 10 years through 2012/13, income recorded a 5.5% CAGR to hit S$10,503. Expenditure rose 3.5% CAGR to reach S$4,724 over the same period. Income was largely derived from employment, about 78.7% in 2012/13. This has fallen from 85.6% in 2002/03. Non-work income has more than tripled over the same period. Non-work income sources include rental, investment and social welfare assistance. Figure 3: Housing and Food form the bulk of household expenditure in Singapore

Source: Department of Statistics Singapore, Phillip Securities Research (Singapore)



Figure 4: Non-work income contribution has tripled since 2002/03


Singaporeans are eating out more often. The largest increase was seen in the restaurants, cafes and pubs segment. It more than doubled to S$267 per month in 10 years through 2012/13. Figure 5: Singaporeans are eating out more often, at higher price-point establishments


This will benefit restaurant operators such as Breadtalk Group Ltd (BREAD SP, Non-rated) and Japan Foods Holding Ltd. (JFOODS SP, Non-rated). The former runs Din Tai Fung and Toast Box while the latter operates Ajisen Ramen. Singapore residents spent more on beautifying their homes in the five years ended 2012/13, than the five years before. Furnishing, Household Equipment and Routine Household Maintenance expenditure saw a 7.1% CAGR between 2007/08 and 2012/2013 compared to a 10-year 1.9% CAGR. This will benefit home furnishing firms such as Courts Asia Ltd. (COURTS SP, Non-rated) that runs a chain of outlets providing furniture and electronic solutions. According to The Nielsen Company, consumers are sitting on the fence of optimism and pessimism. They had been fairly pessimistic between 3Q2011 and 3Q2013. You can read more about their findings here.

http://viz.nielsen.com/consumerconfidence/tool.php#trended/SG



Malaysia Malaysia median monthly household income grew 6% CAGR between 1999 and 2012 to RM3,626. This is slightly faster than Singapore. The increase was led by urban states such as Labuan, which grew 12.8% CAGR from 2007 to 2012. Monthly expenditure grew 2.7% CAGR from 1999 to 2010. This is less than half its income growth rate. Communication and Miscellaneous goods and services posted the fastest growth among the pack at 7% and 5.5% CAGR. Figure 6: Median monthly household income grew 6% between 1999 and 2012

Source: Department Of Statistics, Malaysia, Phillip Securities Research (Singapore)

Figure 7: Food and household utilities account for 43% of Malaysians monthly spending

Source: Department Of Statistics, Malaysia, Phillip Securities Research (Singapore)



The two largest expenditure items were Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels as well as Food and non-alcoholic beverages, at 22.6% and 20.3% respectively in 2010. Despite an increase in absolute expenditure on restaurants and hotels, it made up a smaller percentage of overall expenditure in 2010 (10.9%), vs 1999 (12.8%). This suggests Malaysians rather spend their money elsewhere. The key beneficiaries were alcoholic beverages and tobacco as well as miscellaneous goods and services. Consumer sentiment has been shaky recently. It hit 83 in 4Q2014. A number below 100 signifies pessimism. Excluding 4Q2013’s 82.4, 83 is the lowest since 1Q2009, during the depths of the financial crisis. Figure 8: Consumer sentiment close to 4Q2013 low; second lowest since 1Q2009

Source: Malaysian Institute of Economic Research, Bloomberg, Phillip Securities Research (Singapore)

One company that may face these industry headwinds is mall-operator Parkson Retail Asia (PRA SP, Non-rated). Another hot topic is GST implementation, which kicked in on 1 Apr-15. How will consumers react?

Best case scenario: Everything remains status-quo

Worst case scenario: Consumers tighten their purse strings

We think the latter is possible. In a bid to reduce its budget deficit, the government has scraped certain subsidies. In Dec-14, it abolished its fuel subsidies. Back in Oct-13, it shelved its sugar subsidies. Both are key items used by Malaysians. The removal of subsidies means that a larger portion of their household budget would have to be set aside for fuel and sugar. This would lower potential discretionary spending.



Indonesia In 2013, Indonesia’s monthly household expenditure was IDR703,561 (about S$74). It had increased at 14.1% CAGR since 2000. This is faster than its GDP per capita growth of 12.1% CAGR, according to The World Bank. This suggests that consumers are confident that wages will improve in the future. Figure 9: Indonesians’ expenditure is increasing faster than income growth

Source: World Bank, Statistics Indonesia, Phillip Securities Research (Singapore) A glance the nation’s consumer confidence index would support the latter. Indonesians have been fairly optimistic in recent memory. The index has stayed above 100 since Sep-10. Figure 10: Consumer confidence index above 100 since Sep-10

Source: Statistics Indonesia, Bloomberg, Phillip Securities Research (Singapore) The top three expenditure items in 2013 were: 1) Goods and services, 2) Housing and household facility, and 3) Prepared food and alcoholic beverages. All three expanded faster than the overall growth rate.



Figure 11: Citizens eat out more, want convenience and lifting discretionary spending

Source: Statistics Indonesia, Phillip Securities Research (Singapore)

In 1999, cereals took the top spot for consumer spending. By 2013, it dropped to fourth. This means consumers are eating out more, demanding convenience and increasing discretionary spending. Mall operators, food providers and furniture sellers stand to benefit from this shift in expenditure. These include Courts Asia Ltd. (COURTS SP, Non-rated), Petra Foods Ltd (PETRA SP, Non-rated), Parkson Retail Asia (PRA SP, Non-rated) and Dairy Farm International Holdings (DFI SP, Non-rated).



Philippines Filipinos’ average annual family income rose 5.2% CAGR from PHP173,000 in 2006 to PHP235,000 in 2012. Spending grew 4.6% CAGR to PHP193,000 in that time. This means Filipinos saved more in 2012, than 2006. A word of caution: income and spending growth slowed down between 2009 and 2012, compared to 2006 to 2009. This was probably due to the 2008/09 financial crisis. Figure 12: Income rose faster than expenditure; leading to higher savings

Source: Philippine Statistics Authority, Phillip Securities Research (Singapore)

One would expect a slightly negative outlook held by Philippines’ consumers. However, that is not the case. Filipinos seem fairly optimistic with Nielsen consumer confidence index above 100 since 2Q2009. Filipinos have been spending more on recreation and culture products and services. In 2006, the average household spent PHP836 on them. By 2012, that figure rose to PHP3,290. Food and non-alcoholic beverages account for the lion share of household spending, rising from 42.6% in 2006 to 44.4% by 2012. Despite registering a slower-than-overall growth, it made up half of the increase in absolute terms.

http://viz.nielsen.com/consumerconfidence/tool.php#trended/PH



Figure 13: Food and non-alcoholic beverages is the largest component of spending

Source: Philippine Statistics Authority, Phillip Securities Research (Singapore) One firm with an exposure to this segment is Del Monte Pacific Ltd (DELM SP, Non-rated), known for its pineapples and bananas.



Thailand Thais’ income has risen faster than expenditure since 2000. Back then, Thais spent 81.1% of their income. In 2013, they spent 75.7% of it. It means they are saving more. That’s good, right? Maybe not. Over that same period, debt per household grew 6.9% CAGR, faster than income’s 5.8% CAGR. In 2000, the average household’s debt was 5.6x its income. By 2013, it was 6.5x. This implies that the Thais are relying more on credit to fund their spending habits. This paints on ominous picture in the event borrowing costs increase or income source is threatened. Figure 14: Income is rising faster than spending, but debt is up as well

Source: Thailand’s National Statistical Office, Phillip Securities Research (Singapore)

Thais are spending more on F&B (excl. alcohol). It took up 32.7% of their monthly spending in 2013, up from 31% in 2007. And they go out to get it. Figure 15: F&B (excl. alcohol) is rising as a percentage of Thais’ spending

Source: Thailand’s National Statistical Office, Phillip Securities Research (Singapore)



As a percentage of F&B (excl. alcohol) expenditure, prepared food increased 369 basis points to 40.1% from 2007 to 2013. The rise came at the expense of food prepared at home. Figure 16: Thais are heading out to fill their bellies

Source: Thailand’s National Statistical Office, Phillip Securities Research (Singapore) This bodes well for food providers such as Thai Beverage Pcl (THAIBEV SP, Non-rated). Thailand has faced much political turmoil over the years. Despite that, consumers have been rather optimistic since 4Q2010, as shown by Nielsen’s consumer confidence index.

http://viz.nielsen.com/consumerconfidence/tool.php#trended/TH



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[email protected] Shane Goh [email protected]

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