SFFES- Ecological Sensitivity Workshop

CWHmm1(5% of District)

CWHmm1 – C-main to Memekay

CWHmm1 – C-main to Memekay - Current BEC

CWHmm1- Bookend Climate Scenarios

CWHmm1 – C-main to Memekay – PCM-B1 2050

CWHmm1– PCM-B1 2050

CWHxm temp

CWHmmPrecip

So warmer version of CWHmm

CWHmm1 – C-main to Memekay – HAD-A1FI 2050

CWHmm1– HAD-A1F1 2050

CDFmmtemp

CWHmm2Precip

CWHmm1 – HAD-A1F1 2050

Summer heat: moisture index

At the CWHxm level

CONSIDER CWHmm1 STAND / ECOSYSTEMS – In a changing climate

CWHmm1 STAND / ECOSYSTEMS- 2050(PCM & HAD)

SUMMARY OF DISCUSSION:

Vulnerability ClassesLow – Stands will suffer minor losses due to climate

change.Mod – likely will suffer significant but manageable

losses and or secondary risks (fire etc.)High – likely will suffer major losses or incur high

secondary risks, but catastrophic losses unlikely.Very High – likelihood for catastrophic losses are high.

Opportunity ClassesNil – No opportunity to enhance growth.Minor – Minor growth enhancement likely.Significant – significant growth enhancement

likely.

Species Vuln. Class

Opp. Class

Reasoning (e.g. drought stress/

Ba Mod Nil Under PCM OK, Had, summer drought could be an issue.

Needs early growing season moisture usually from snowmelt

GGD up – BWA could be an issue, is in Mem.

Hw Low Ok, PCM remains suited. Had, summer drought an issue.

Hemlock looper? Could be triggered by heat – couple of years after hot

CWHmm1 STAND / ECOSYSTEMS- 2050(PCM & HAD)

SUMMARY OF DISCUSSION:Species Sens.

ClassOpp. Class

Reasoning (e.g. drought stress/

Ba Mod Nil Under PCM OK, Had, summer drought could be an issue.

Needs early growing season moisture usually from snowmelt

GGD up – BWA could be an issue, is in Mem.

Hw Low Mod to Low

Ok, PCM remains suited. Had, summer drought an issue.

Hemlock looper? Could be triggered by heat – couple of years after hot – PhD.

Fd Low Had - minor

Fd potentially the best adapted for the Had scenarios.

Frost could be an issue at regen.

CWHmm1 STAND / ECOSYSTEMS- 2050(PCM & HAD)

SUMMARY OF DISCUSSION:Species Sens. Class Opp.

ClassReasoning (e.g. drought stress/

Cw Vary by site

Had = mod to height

Nil Ok on receiving sites – Had DS

Yc Mod Nil Near upper end – similar to SE Alaska? Ground needs to freeze.

CWHmm1Ecologically Suitable Regen – Now and Future

MESIC SITE DISCUSSION : 1. What are the vulnerabilities and why? (drought / insects /

disease?) 2. What are the opportunities – where / when?3. What are the outstanding questions?

% of orig area Ba Bg Bl Bp Cw Fd Hm Hw Lw Pl Pw Py Se Ss Sx Yc Act Dr Ep Mb Qg Ra

Present CWHmm1 (ha) 70518 10 b 7,a b

CWHmm1 87 10 b 7,a b

CWHdm 12 24 31 b 7,42 a 18 a b b

CWHdm 38 24 31 b 7,42 a 18 a b b

CWHxm1 57 24 31 7,42 a 18 a b b

Green Primary Footnotes in cells - see listYellow Secondary Orange Tertiary

Preliminary Sensitivity InterpretationCWHmm1 With both scenarios Fd remains suited, Cw will become less suited, more so at lower portions of the variant. Hw will remain a candidate following the caveats of north facing and in wetter portions of the unit.

Footnotes7 restricted to nutrient-medium sites

10 restricted to northerly aspects18 restricted to eastern portion of biogeoclimatic unit in region24 suitable (as a major species) in wetter portion of BEC unit31 risk of white pine blister rust42 restricted to fresh soil moisture regimesa productive, reliable, and feasible regeneration optionb limited in productivity, reliability and/or feasibility

MESIC SITES

PCM-B1 2050

HAD-A1F1 2050

Possible species to add in?

CWHmm1 Regeneration Vulnerabilities & Opportunities

Added Comments:

Mesic Sites

Ba Bg Bl Bp Cw Fd Hm Hw Lw Pl Pw Py Se Ss Sx Yc Act Dr Ep Mb Qg Ra

Present CWHmm1 (ha) 70518 10 b 7,a b

CWHmm1 87 10 b 7,a b

CWHdm 12 24 31 b 7,42 a 18 a b b

CWHdm 38 24 31 b 7,42 a 18 a b b

CWHxm1 57 24 31 7,42 a 18 a b b

Green Primary Footnotes in cells - see listYellow Secondary Orange Tertiary

Preliminary Sensitivity InterpretationCWHmm1 With both scenarios Fd remains suited, Cw will become less suited, more so at lower portions of the variant. Hw will remain a candidate following the caveats of north facing and in wetter portions of the unit.

Footnotes7 restricted to nutrient-medium sites

10 restricted to northerly aspects18 restricted to eastern portion of biogeoclimatic unit in region24 suitable (as a major species) in wetter portion of BEC unit31 risk of white pine blister rust42 restricted to fresh soil moisture regimesa productive, reliable, and feasible regeneration optionb limited in productivity, reliability and/or feasibility

PEEK FURTHER INTO THE FUTURE

CWHmm1 – C-main to Memekay – PCM-B1 2080

CWHdm

CWHxm1

CWHxm1

CWHdm

CWHmm1

Dominant Subzone Climate

% of the CWHmm1

CWHdm 88%

CWHmm1/xm1 13%

PEEK FURTHER INTO THE FUTURE

CWHmm1 – C-main to Memekay – HAD-A1F1 2080

CWHxm

-hot

CWHxm1

CWHxm - hot

CW

Hxm

1

CWHxm - hot

Dominant Subzone Climate

% of the CWHmm1

CWHxm1 42%

CWHxm-hot 36%

CWHdm-hot 12%

CWHxm

-hot

CWHxm1

CWHxm - hot

CW

Hxm

1

CWHxm - hot

PEEK FURTHER INTO THE FUTURE

CWHmm1 – C-main to Memekay – HAD-A1F1 2080

CWHxm-hot

mean annual temperature 7.5 11.4 3.9 mean warmest month temperature 15.8 21.0 5.2 mean coldest month temperature 0.5 3.2 2.7 extreme minimum temperature (19.9) (13.7) 6.2 Continentality (MWMT - MCMT) 15.3 17.8 16.5%frost free period 154.4 244.7 58.5%number of frost free days 257.1 329.9 28.3%degree-days above 18 degrees C 25.3 245.0 219.7degree-days below 0 degrees C 93.2 26.0 -67.1mean annual precipitation 2,036.9 2,488.7 22.2%mean annual summer precipitation 379.0 313.8 -17.2%precipitation as snow 241.6 92.4 -61.7%Summer heat:moisture index 43.9 70.3 60.3%Annual heat:moisture index 8.8 8.8 -0.1%

ANNUAL CLIMATE VARIABLES Now 2080 change

Dominant Subzone Climate

% of the CWHmm1

CWHxm1 42%

CWHxm-hot 36%

CWHdm-hot 12%