Session1B Overheads
Transcript of Session1B Overheads
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The PIRAMID Technology
Overview
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Background to the PIRAMID Project
● A multi-year Joint Industry Program
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Sponsored by● BC Gas
● ConocoPhillips
● Enbridge
●
Foothills Pipe Lines● Kinder Morgan
● PEMEX Exploration and Production
● Saudi Arabian Oil Company
●
Sempra Energy Utilities● Tubular Goods Research Center of CNPC
● Canadian Geological Survey
● U.S. Minerals Management Service
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Project Goal
Develop Models and Software
● Make optimal maintenance decisions● Ensure acceptable risk levels
● At the lowest possible cost
● Explain rationale behind decisions● Internally within company
● Externally to regulators and the public
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Development Focus
● Quantitative model-based approach● probability estimation
● consequence estimation
● Account for the impact of preventative maintenance● in-line inspection | hydrostatic pressure testing
● damage prevention measures
● Comprehensive treatment of risk● life safety impact
● environmental impact
● economic impact
● Formal decision analysis approach● weigh benefits (risk reduction) against costs (preventative maintenance)
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PIRAMID Function
Divide system into segments
Rank line segmentsaccording to risk level
RiskRanking
Determine optimal strategyfor targeted segment
Implement optimal actionsin order of refined ranking
Repeat for eachtargeted segment
Maintenance
Optimization
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Risk Ranking
For each Segment in System
EstimateTotal Operating Risk
R e
p e a t f o r A l l H
a z a r d s
Estimate
Probability of Failure
EstimateConsequences of Failure
Identify Hazards
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Ranking Results - Identify High Risk Segments
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Maintenance Optimization
For each Targeted Segment
Identify IntegrityMaintenance Options
Estimate Effect of Maintenance Strategy
on the Probability of Failure
Re-calculate Risk
Select Optimal IntegrityMaintenance Strategy
R e
p e a t f o r A l l O p t i o n s
DecisionAnalysis
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Analysis Results - Identify Preferred Option
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PIRAMID Technology Summary
● Comprehensive framework for maintenance planning
● Quantitative and objective approach● Historical incident data
● Analytical models
● pipeline failure prediction
● release hazard characterization● Pipeline condition data
● Benefits●
Generates line-specific risk estimates● Quantifies the impact of maintenance actions
● Identifies minimum cost solutions
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The PIRAMID Technology
Model Components
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PIRAMID Model Components
SegmentAnalysis
SiteAnalysis
DecisionAnalysis
Pipeline Definition and SegmentationScenarioDefinition
Risk Estimation
ProbabilityEstimation
ConsequenceEstimation
StructuralReliability Models
Historical FailureRate Models
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PIRAMID Model Components
SegmentAnalysis
SiteAnalysis
DecisionAnalysis
Pipeline Definition and SegmentationScenarioDefinition
ConsequenceEstimation
Historical FailureRate Models
Risk Estimation
ProbabilityEstimation
StructuralReliability Models
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Probability Estimation
● Quantify the annual chance of line failure
for each significant failure cause● Corrosion mechanisms
● Cracking mechanisms
● Outside forces
● Failure modes considered● Small leak
pinhole
● Large leak
significant hole
● Rupture full-bore release
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Available Methods
Historicalfailure rates
Adjustmentfactors
Failureprobabilities
Conditiondata
Structuralmodels
Failureprobabilities
Historical-based Method
Reliability-based Method
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Historical-based Method
● Approach● Use historical failure rates and failure mode splits
● Adjust to reflect line attributes and effect of maintenance
● Adjustments based on statistical data, simple models, judgment
● Strengths●
Simple and fast
● Limitations● Variable accuracy (more to work with for some failure causes)
●
Involves subjective judgment● Recommended use
● Segment ranking and prioritization
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Historical-based Models
Failure causes addressed by HB models
●
Time-dependent failure● External metal loss corrosion
● Internal metal loss corrosion
● Stress corrosion cracking
●
Manufacturing cracks● seam weld fatigue - onshore
● girth weld fatigue – offshore
● Geotechnical hazard (e.g., slope movement)
● Time-independent failure
● Equipment impact● excavators - onshore
● net gear/anchors/vessel hulls - offshore
● Geotechnical hazard (e.g., river scour)
● Seismic hazard (liquefaction, fault movement)
● Other causes
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Reliability-based Method
● Approach● Use line and ROW condition data
● Calculate failure probability using structural behaviour models
● Strengths● Gives line-specific probability estimates
● Can accurately account for the impact of maintenance● Based on more readily available data
● Limitations●
Detailed analysis required● Recommended use
● Analyzing maintenance options
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Reliability-based Models
Failure causes addressed by RB models
●
Time-dependent failure● External metal loss corrosion
● Internal metal loss corrosion
● Stress corrosion cracking
● Manufacturing cracks (axial defects)
● Dent-gouges (mechanical damage)
● Wrinkling or rupture due to ground movement
● Time-independent failure● Equipment impact
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PIRAMID Model Components
SegmentAnalysis
SiteAnalysis
DecisionAnalysis
Pipeline Definition and SegmentationScenarioDefinition
ConsequenceEstimation
Historical FailureRate Models
Risk Estimation
ProbabilityEstimation
StructuralReliability Models
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Consequence Estimation
● Quantify the impact of failure should it occur
● A model-based approach with distinct models for ● Onshore pipelines
● Offshore pipelines
● Consequence measures● Financial impact
Dollars
● Public safety impact
Number of people at risk
● Environmental impact Effective residual spill volume
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Consequence Estimation Model
Failure
HazardModels
Damage
Thresholds
Human Impact
Thresholds
Effective
Residual SpillVolume
Number of
People at Risk
Spill Clean-upModel
Line Repair Cost
Lost ProductCost
Service InterruptCost
Spill ImpactFactor
Property
DamageCost
Onshore Pipeline Systems
FinancialCost
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Consequence Estimation Model
Failure
HazardModels
Damage
Thresholds
Human Impact
Thresholds
Effective
Shoreline ImpactVolume
Number of
People at Risk
Spill Decay &Clean-up Models
Line Repair Cost
Lost ProductCost
Service InterruptCost
ShorelineImpact Model
OffshoreDamage
Cost
Offshore Pipeline Systems
FinancialCost
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PIRAMID Model Components
SegmentAnalysis
SiteAnalysis
DecisionAnalysis
Pipeline Definition and Segmentation
Risk Estimation
ScenarioDefinition
ProbabilityEstimation
ConsequenceEstimation
StructuralReliability Models
Historical FailureRate Models
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Risk Estimation
Recall
Risk = Probability x Consequences
Where consequences have three components:
Financial Cost ($) C
Life Safety Number of fatalities N
Environmental Spill volume (m3) V
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Risk Measures
● Financial
● Life safety
● Environmental
Expected Cost C* = pf x C ($/year or $/km yr)
Expected Number of Fatalities N* = pf x N (fatalities/year or fatalities/km yr)
Expected Residual Spill volume V* = pf x V (m3 /year or m3 /km yr)
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Combined Risk Measures - Option 1
The equivalent dollar approacho
R = pf x (C + N + V)where
R = Risk ($/year or $/km yr)
pf = Probability of failureC = Failure cost
N = Number of fatalities
V = Spill volume
= Constant converting fatalities to equivalent dollars
= Constant converting residual spill volume to equivalent dollars
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Combined Risk Measures - Option 2
The combined impact approacho
R = pf x ( α C + N + V)where
R = Risk (severity points/yr or severity points/km yr)
pf = Probability of failureC = Failure cost
N = Number of fatalities
V = Spill volume
α
= Constant converting dollars into severity points
= Constant converting fatalities into severity points
= Constant converting residual spill volume into severity points
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Life Safety Risk Estimation
A complimentary approach - Individual Risk
●
The annual probability of a person living or working ata particular location near the pipeline becoming a fatalitydue to a pipeline incident
● Example
An individual risk of 1 x 10-5
means a 1 in 100,000 chance offatality per year
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Individual Risk
1.00E-08
1.00E-07
1.00E-06
1.00E-05
1.00E-04
1.00E-03
-1600 -1200 -800 -400 0 400 800 1200 1600
Distance from Pipeline (m)
A n n u a l F a t a l i t y R i s k
Distance from Pipeline
OffsetIndividual
risk atoffset
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Individual Risk Ratio
1.00E-08
1.00E-07
1.00E-06
1.00E-05
1.00E-04
1.00E-03
-1600 -1200 -800 -400 0 400 800 1200 1600
Distance from Pipeline (m)
A n n u a l F a t a l i t y R i s k
Distance from Pipeline
Minimum offsetto development
IRT - Maximum tolerable risk level*
IR - risk atminimum
offset
* Tolerable risk level depends on land use
IRR = IR / IRT
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S i D fi iti
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Scenario Definition
● A scenario is a ‘modified’ copy of base-case System
● Modifications can include● preventative maintenance actions
● changes in operating procedures
● pipe replacement
● Analysis of a scenario quantifies the effect ofperforming proposed actions
● Comparing scenarios is the basis for decision-making
PIRAMID M d l C t
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PIRAMID Model Components
SegmentAnalysis
SiteAnalysis
DecisionAnalysis
Pipeline Definition and Segmentation
Risk
EvaluationScenarioDefinition
Risk Estimation
ProbabilityEstimation
ConsequenceEstimation
StructuralReliability Models
Historical FailureRate Models
Sit A l i
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Site Analysis
● Individual risk●
Individual risk estimates and contours at a specific location● Attribute sensitivity
● Effect of attribute variations on risk measures at a location
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Risk trends● Risk vs. time at a specific location
● Probability of failure
● Expected cost
●
Expected fatalities● Expected volume
● Combined impact
● Individual risk ratio
S t A l i
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Segment Analysis
● Segment risk estimation* and ranking●
Available measures● Expected combined impact (equivalent dollars or severity points)
● Probability of failure
● Expected cost
●
Expected volume● Expected fatalities
● Individual risk ratio
● Results available for ● Individual failure causes or ‘all causes combined’
*Note segment risk is the sum of the risks from each component section
D i i A l i
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Decision Analysis
● A framework for comparing maintenance options
● Formalized decision analysis approach● Weighs benefits of maintenance against costs of implementation
● Preferred option yields tolerable level of risk at lowest cost
● Available analysis methods● Risk Optimization
● Cost optimization
● Combined impact optimization
● Utility optimization
● Benefit-cost ratios
Decision Analysis
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Decision Analysis
Risk Optimization Methods●
Cost optimization● minimize total “real dollar” impact of operation
● option to treat safety and/or environmental risks as constraints
● Combined Impact optimization*
●
minimize combined impact severity of operation● consider financial, safety and environmental impacts together
● Utility optimization*
● maximize “value” associated with all possible outcomes
●
consider financial, safety and environmental impacts together ● reflects risk attitudes and variable trade-off
*can also treat safety and/or environmental risks as constraints
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Pipeline Definition and Segmentation
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Pipeline Definition and Segmentation
System● set of pipelines to be considered
● represents the base-case or ‘do-nothing’ scenario
Pipeline● basis for pipeline system definition
● lengths of line along which stationing is continuous
● all necessary line attributes defined over entire length
Segment● basic unit for risk ranking and maintenance planning
● can be repeatedly modified by user (Dynamic Segmentation)
Section● basic unit of risk analysis
● established by program based on line attributes
● new section generated every time an attribute changes
Pipeline vs Segment vs Section
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Pipeline vs. Segment vs. Section
Section - consistent attribute set
Dynamic Segmentation
fixed sections
original segmentation
revised segmentation
Segmented by user
Sectioned automatically by line attributesPipeline
KP / MPStart
KP / MPEnd
Segment - basis for system rankingand maintenance planning
Line Attributes
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Line Attributes
● Attribute types●
Range attributes constant along a distance of line● Coordinate attributes measured at discrete points along line
● Numeric input enter a real (floating point) number
● Choice input select from a choice list
● Date input YYYY/MM/DD
● Methods of data entry● direct entry through program interface (attribute spreadsheet)
●
cut and paste to/from attribute spreadsheet● import from a formatted text file (PIRAMID model data file .mdl)
● import data from an external data source
The Software
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The Software
User Interface
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Menu Bar
Display Area
Tree DiagramWorkspace
Status Bar
Message Area
Tool Bar
User Interface
Demo Guidance Notes
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Demo Guidance Notes
Menu Bar command reference→ Settings / Consequences
Demo 1
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Demo 1
● Metric (SI) example
Liquid pipeline -X:\Program Files\C-FER\PIRAMID\2002 Training Seminar\Level1\Demo 1\SI
● Imperial (US) example
Liquid pipeline -X:\Program Files\C-FER\PIRAMID\2002 Training Seminar\Level1\Demo 1\IMP
Demo 1 (metric) – Segment Analysis Results
for All Segments in System
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for All Segments in System
Demo 1 (metric) – Segment Analysis Results
for All Maintenance Scenarios on North Lateral
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for All Maintenance Scenarios on North Lateral
Demo 1 (metric) – Site Analysis Results for
All Maintenance Scenarios on North Lateral
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All Maintenance Scenarios on North Lateral
Demo 1 (metric) – Decision Analysis Results
for All Maintenance Scenarios on North Lateral
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for All Maintenance Scenarios on North Lateral
Demo 1 (metric) – Decision Analysis Results for
All Maintenance Scenarios on North Lateral
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All Maintenance Scenarios on North Lateral
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