SERBIA, IT’S TIME TO INVEST! Christoph Pircher Head of Corporate Relationship Management...
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SERBIA, IT’S TIME TO INVEST! Christoph Pircher Head of Corporate Relationship Management Department II Raiffeisen banka a.d. Begrade, Serbia
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Transcript of SERBIA, IT’S TIME TO INVEST! Christoph Pircher Head of Corporate Relationship Management...
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SERBIA, ITS TIME TO INVEST!Christoph PircherHead of Corporate Relationship Management Department IIRaiffeisen banka a.d. Begrade, Serbia
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1. SERBIA AT A GLANCE
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ABOUT SERBIA*Source: www.siepa.sr.gov.yuTotal number of inhabitants (last official census taken in 2002)Serbia - 7.498.001Belgrade - 1.576.124
Individual income (2006 statistics):Serbia gross 387 EUR, net 265 EURBelgrade gross 487 EUR, net 337 EUR
Unemployment rate in Belgrade (2006): 18.0%Unemployment rate in Serbia (2006): 28%
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MARKET ACCESS Serbia is in the center of CEFTA duty free access to 30 million people marketDuty free exports to the EU FTA with Russian Federation - market of 150 mil. people. Limited number of exceptions: complete vehicles, confectionery, some alcoholic beveragesCustoms operations have been improved by electronic database, electronic declarations, and imports & exports time drastically shortenedSource: SIEPA
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COMPETITIVE LABOR COST 2006 Average Gross Salary: 387 EUR2006 Average Net Salary: 265 EURSource: SIEPA
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First phase Privatization of cement factories which took place in 2001 onwards:Holcim bought Fabrika Cementa Novi PopovacTitan bougth Fabrika Cementa KosjericLafarge bought Fabrika Cementa Beocin
Second phasePrivatization of breweries and tobacco industry, major deals:Philip Morris (Altria) bought DINBAT bought DIVCarlsberg, INBEV and Efes bought major breweriesPRIVATIZATION
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FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS (in Mill. Of US $)MACROECONOMIC DATA
Chart1
966
1550
4264.38
2195.2978
1. Foreign direct investment, net
Foreign direct investment (net)
Sheet1
USD mio19971998199920002001200220032004200520062007
1. Foreign direct investment, net740.00113.00112.0050.00165.00475.001,365.00966.001,550.004,264.382,195.30
477.419354838772.903225806572.258064516132.2580645161106.4516129032306.4516129032880.6451612903623.225806451610002751.21290322581416.3211612903
2004200520062007
1. Foreign direct investment, net966.001,550.004,264.382,195.30
Sheet1
0
0
0
0
1. Foreign direct investment, net
Foreign direct investment (net)
-
MAJOR FOREIGN INVESTORS
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2. BANKING SECTOR IN SERBIA
-
BANKING AND ECONOMY CONCLUSION:Due to the closure of large banks and restructuring process undergoing in state-owned banks in Serbia the banks asstets participation in Serbian GDP has declined. Nevertheless, result of new entrants into Serbian banking sector, this ratio is expected to increase.BANKS ASSETS - Share in GDP
Chart4
0.8067035932
1.2538
1.216
0.3871
0.3218
0.38
0.43
Total Banks Assets as % of Serbian GDP
Chart13
0.780.420.360.361999
0.810.4150.380.340.21
0.80.490.440.350.23
0.750.520.420.390.3
0.760.570.440.420.35
CEE Banks Assets - Share in GDP
NMC 8
CC 3
SEEC 3
Russia
FSR 2
15 EU Countries' Average - 201%
Sheet1
Total assets of the banking sector, in EUR bn20032004
BANKARSKA AKTIVA4.956.15
NMC 8 (PL, HU, CZ, SK, SL, ES, LT, LI)312.6
Rusija152.5
CC3 (RO, BG, HR)50.6
FSR 2 (UA, BY)18.8
SEEC 3 (SR, BIH, AL)15.0
Share of majority owned state-owned, in % of total assets
NMC 8PL26%
HU0%
CZ3%
SK3%
SL20%
ES0%
LT5%
LI0%
CC 3RO40%
BG2%
HR4%
SEEC 3SR45%
BH6%
AL55%
.RU32%
FSR 2UA9%
BY78%
Share of majority owned state-owned, in % of total assets in Serbia
20022003Sep-04
4649%37%
Share of majority foreign-owned banks, in % of total assets
NMC 8PL72%
HU83%
CZ97%
SK98%
SL33%
ES99%
LT55%
LI88%
CC 3RO51%
BG82%
HR91%
SEEC 3SR20%
BH75%
AL46%
.RU4%
FSR 2UA8%
BY10%
Share of majority foreign owned state-owned, in % of total assets in Serbia
2003Sep-04Sep-04
20%32%50%
200320%
Sep-0432%
Sep-0450%with sales/privatization in Q4 and '05
Market concetration - 5 najvecih igraca na trzistu
NMC 8PL49%
HU52%
CZ66%
SK68%
SL69%
ES99%
LT62%
LI82%
CC 3RO49%
BG57%
HR70%
SEEC 3SR48%
BH64%
AL80%
.RU43%
FSR 2UA38%
BY88%
200348%
Sep-0447%
Total assets of the banking sector in % of GDP
NMC 8CC 3SEEC 3RussiaFSR 2
199978%42%36%36%
200081%42%38%34%21%
200180%49%44%35%23%
200275%52%42%39%30%
200376%57%44%42%35%
2004
Total assets of the banking sector in % of GDP u Srbiji
199981%
2000125%
2001122%
200239%
200332%
200438%
200543%
Total credits of the banking sector in % of GDP
PL, HU, CZ, SK, SL, ES, LT, LIRO, BG, HRSR, BH, AL, RU, KO, MDRusijaUA, BY
199932%18%13%14%
200033%18%13%14%12%
200131%20%17%17%15%
200232%25%19%18%18%
200334%29%22%22%24%
year
199927%
200040%
200132%
200218%
200316%
200421%
Retail credits in % of GDP
PL, HU, CZ, SK, SL, ES, LT, LIRO, BG, HRSR, BH, AL, RU, KO, MDRusijaUA, BY
19997%2%1%
20008%5%3%2%1%
20018%6%4%2%1%
20029%8%6%3%2%
200311%11%9%3%4%
year
19991%
20001%
20011%
20022%
20033%
20045%
Mortage loans in % of GDP
19992000200120022003
Poljska1.95%2.10%2.70%3.70%4.80%
Slovaka0.00%0.40%0.90%1.00%2.00%
Maarska0.00%1.00%2.00%5.20%8.00%
Hrvatska3.20%4.00%4.20%7.00%9.80%
eka0.80%1.20%1.70%2.10%3.80%
Market shares in CEE 6 countries
Raiffeisen Int.11%
Hypo Alpe Adria7%
BACA (HVB Group)2%
Societe Generale2%
Ostali79%
TOTAL ASSETS OF INTERNATIONAL BANK IN CEE, 2003 IN EUR bn
KBC29
Erste27
UniCredito24
HVB/BACA23
Raiffeisen22
SocGen18.5
Banca Intesa13.5
Citibank12.5
OTP12
ING8
Commerzbank7
Allied Irish5
Hypo Alpe Adria3.5
ABN Amro3.3
GE Capital3.2
Volksbank3
Market shares in CEEC 20
Raiffeisen Int4%
HVB/BACA5%
Erste bank4%
KBC5%
UniCredito4%
SocGen6%
Banca Intesa3%
Citigroup2%
OTP3%
ING2%
GE Capital1%
Hypo Alpe1%
Commerzbank1%
Other63%
Sheet1
0
0
0
0
0
Sheet2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Sheet3
0
0
uee banaka u dravnom vlasnitvu u ukupnoj aktivi u Srbiji
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
0
NMC 8
0
0
0
uee banaka u stranom vlasni. u ukupnoj aktivi u Srbiji
sa prodajama/privatizacijom u Q4 i 2005
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Uee 5 najveih banaka u ukupnoj aktivi u Srbiji
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
NMC 8
CC 3
SEEC 3
Russia
FSR 2
Eurozone 201%
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Uee bankarske aktive u BDP Srbije
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
PL, HU, CZ, SK, SL, ES, LT, LI
RO, BG, HR
SR, BH, AL, RU, KO, MD
Rusija
UA, BY
0
0
0
0
0
0
Uee ukupnih kredita u BDP u Srbiji
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
PL, HU, CZ, SK, SL, ES, LT, LI
RO, BG, HR
SR, BH, AL, RU, KO, MD
Rusija
UA, BY
Eurozone 49%
0
0
0
0
0
0
Uee kredita stanovnitva u BDP u Srbiji
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
Poljska
Slovaka
Maarska
Hrvatska
eka
0
0
0
0
0
u % od neto kredita
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
na Rusiju se odnosi 30% neto kredita
PLHUCZSKSLESLTLIBGROHRRUUABYALSRBIHUKUPNO
Raiffeisen Int58504110313371902981463921758773
HVB/BACA51937232410121579823433904
ING3383515N.A.2911401
Citi16020741661205
Volksbank2819349101348125
UniCredit80126689128128651207
SocGen53385563181321666
Erste1946643421181318
KBC35915520873795
OTP4405116316670
Intesa451229200475
Hypo Alpe543259109
Commerzbank4513150
Swedb9266122280
Allied Irish432432
u % od neto kredita
BANKARSKA AKTIVA
Bankarska aktiva Srbije - mld EUR
0
0
0
0
u mil EUR% kapitala prodat/na prodajikupacpotencijalni kupcicena
stanje 30/09/2004
Jubanka a.d. Beograd88.64%Alpha bank152
Izbor kupca u toku
Novosadska banka a.d. Novi Sad82.79%Erste bank, UniCredito, EFG Eurobankn.a.
Continental banka a.d. Novi Sad98.01%GE Capital, Nova Ljubljanska banka, EFG Eurobankn.a.
Tender o prodaji akcija objavljen
Nika banka a.d. Ni100.00%
Izbor privatizacionog savetnika u tokun.a.
Vojvoanska banka a.d. Novi Sad98.65%OTP??
Panonska banka a.d. Novi Sad87.31%
u EUR milKupac% vlasnitvacena
Delta banka a.d. BeogradIntesa BCI75% + 1 akcija277.5
Eksim banka a.d. BoegradBACA98%n.a.
Atlas banka a.d. BeogradPiraeus bank80%n.a.
20032004
ukupni krediti$2,507$3,400
krediti privredi$2,013$2,535
krediti stanovnistvu$418$817
2004/20032004/2003
total credits35.64%$893
corporate credits25.93%$522
retail credits95.45%$399
20032004
ukupni depoziti$2,955$3,530
depoziti privrede$1,473$1,615
depoziti stanovnitva$1,217$1,565
19.46%
9.64%
28.56%
20032004
krediti stanovnistvu$418$817
depoziti stanovnitva$1,217$1,565
191.2%91.5%
MARKET SHARE TOP 10 BANKS
ukupna aktivaukupni krediti
Raiffeisenbank13%15%
Delta banka11%10%
Komercijalna banka10%9%
Vojvodjanska banka8%8%
Soc Gen5%4%
Hypo Alpe adria4%6%
Jubanka4%4%
AIK bank3%3%
HVB bank3%3%
ProCredit bank2%3%
ASSETS
Raiffeisenbank$802
Delta$676
Komercijalna$602
Vojvodjanska$496
SocGen$287
Hypo Alpe adria$265
Jubanka$228
AIK bank Nis$183
HVB bank$179
ProCredit bank$152
LOANS
Raiffeisenbank$521
Delta$341
Komercijalna$303
Vojvodjanska$263
SocGen$209
Hypo Alpe adria$140
Jubanka$139
AIK bank Nis$118
HVB bank$107
ProCredit bank$87
Raiffeisenbank$718
Delta$535
Komercijalna$464
Vojvodjanska$324
SocGen$260
Hypo Alpe adria$203
Jubanka$120
AIK bank Nis$119
HVB bank$97
ProCredit bank$41
00
00
00
35%
26%
95%
2003
2004
in mio of EUR
00
00
00
10%
2003
2004
u mil EUR
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
19%
29%
krediti stanovnistvu
depoziti stanovnitva
u mil EUR
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
ukupni krediti
Hypo Alpe adria4%
SG5%
vojvodjanska8%
Raiffeisenbank 13%
Delta11%
Komercijalna10%
Jubank4%
AIK bank Nis3%
HVB bank3%
ProCredit bank2%
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
HVB bank3%
ProCredit bank3%
AIK bank Nis3%
Jubank4%
Raiffeisenbank15%
Delta10%
Komercijalna9%
Vojvodjanska8%
SG4%
Hypo Alpe adria6%
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
u mil EUR
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
u mil EUR
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
u mil EUR
-
CONCLUSION:Evident decrease of this indicator is a result of assets restructuring of state-owned banks (i.e. Write-offs of bad loans). Following the resructuring of banking sector and presence of foreign banks, participation of total credits in GDP has begun to increaseTOTAL CREDITS - Share in GDPBANKING AND ECONOMY
Chart2
0.2672290868
0.4
0.32
0.18
0.16
0.21
0.23
Total Credits as % Serbian GDP
Chart13
0.320.180.1250.1351999
0.330.1750.130.140.12
0.310.20.170.1650.15
0.3150.250.1850.180.175
0.340.290.220.220.24
Total Credits - Share in GDP
NCM8
CC3
SEEC3
Russia
FSR2
15 EU Countries Average - 110%
Sheet1
Total assets of the banking sector, in EUR bn20032004
BANKARSKA AKTIVA4.956.15
NMC 8 (PL, HU, CZ, SK, SL, ES, LT, LI)312.6
Rusija152.5
CC3 (RO, BG, HR)50.6
FSR 2 (UA, BY)18.8
SEEC 3 (SR, BIH, AL)15.0
Share of majority owned state-owned, in % of total assets
NMC 8PL26%
HU0%
CZ3%
SK3%
SL20%
ES0%
LT5%
LI0%
CC 3RO40%
BG2%
HR4%
SEEC 3SR45%
BH6%
AL55%
.RU32%
FSR 2UA9%
BY78%
Share of majority owned state-owned, in % of total assets in Serbia
20022003Sep-04
4649%37%
Share of majority foreign-owned banks, in % of total assets
NMC 8PL72%
HU83%
CZ97%
SK98%
SL33%
ES99%
LT55%
LI88%
CC 3RO51%
BG82%
HR91%
SEEC 3SR20%
BH75%
AL46%
.RU4%
FSR 2UA8%
BY10%
Share of majority foreign owned state-owned, in % of total assets in Serbia
2003Sep-04Sep-04
20%32%50%
200320%
Sep-0432%
Sep-0450%with sales/privatization in Q4 and '05
Market concetration - 5 najvecih igraca na trzistu
NMC 8PL49%
HU52%
CZ66%
SK68%
SL69%
ES99%
LT62%
LI82%
CC 3RO49%
BG57%
HR70%
SEEC 3SR48%
BH64%
AL80%
.RU43%
FSR 2UA38%
BY88%
200348%
Sep-0447%
Total assets of the banking sector in % of GDP
NMC 8CC 3SEEC 3RusijaFSR 2
199978%42%36%36%
200081%42%38%34%21%
200180%49%44%35%23%
200275%52%42%39%30%
200376%57%44%42%35%
Total assets of the banking sector in % of GDP u Srbiji
199981%
2000125%
2001122%
200239%
200332%
200438%
Total credits of the banking sector in % of GDP
NCM8CC3SEEC3RussiaFSR2
199932%18%13%14%
200033%18%13%14%12%
200131%20%17%17%15%
200232%25%19%18%18%
200334%29%22%22%24%
year
199927%
200040%
200132%
200218%
200316%
200421%
200523%
Retail credits in % of GDP
PL, HU, CZ, SK, SL, ES, LT, LIRO, BG, HRSR, BH, AL, RU, KO, MDRusijaUA, BY
19997%2%1%
20008%5%3%2%1%
20018%6%4%2%1%
20029%8%6%3%2%
200311%11%9%3%4%
year
19991%
20001%
20011%
20022%
20033%
20045%
Mortage loans in % of GDP
19992000200120022003
Poljska1.95%2.10%2.70%3.70%4.80%
Slovaka0.00%0.40%0.90%1.00%2.00%
Maarska0.00%1.00%2.00%5.20%8.00%
Hrvatska3.20%4.00%4.20%7.00%9.80%
eka0.80%1.20%1.70%2.10%3.80%
Market shares in CEE 6 countries
Raiffeisen Int.11%
Hypo Alpe Adria7%
BACA (HVB Group)2%
Societe Generale2%
Ostali79%
TOTAL ASSETS OF INTERNATIONAL BANK IN CEE, 2003 IN EUR bn
KBC29
Erste27
UniCredito24
HVB/BACA23
Raiffeisen22
SocGen18.5
Banca Intesa13.5
Citibank12.5
OTP12
ING8
Commerzbank7
Allied Irish5
Hypo Alpe Adria3.5
ABN Amro3.3
GE Capital3.2
Volksbank3
Market shares in CEEC 20
Raiffeisen Int4%
HVB/BACA5%
Erste bank4%
KBC5%
UniCredito4%
SocGen6%
Banca Intesa3%
Citigroup2%
OTP3%
ING2%
GE Capital1%
Hypo Alpe1%
Commerzbank1%
Other63%
Sheet1
312.6
152.5
50.6
18.8
15
Sheet2
0.26
0
0.03
0.025
0.2
0
0.05
0
0.4
0.015
0.035
0.45
0.06
0.55
0.32
0.085
0.78
Sheet3
0.49
0.37
uee banaka u dravnom vlasnitvu u ukupnoj aktivi u Srbiji
0.72PLNMC 8
0.83HU
0.97CZ
0.98SK
0.33SL
0.99ES
0.55LT
0.880
0.51ROCC 3
0.82BG
0.910
0.2SRSEEC 3
0.75BH
0.460
0.040
0.08UAFSR 2
0.1BY
NMC 8
0.2
0.32
0.5
uee banaka u stranom vlasni. u ukupnoj aktivi u Srbiji
sa prodajama/privatizacijom u Q4 i 2005
0.49
0.52
0.66
0.68
0.69
0.99
0.62
0.82
0.49
0.57
0.7
0.48
0.64
0.8
0.43
0.38
0.88
0
0
Uee 5 najveih banaka u ukupnoj aktivi u Srbiji
0.780.420.360.361999
0.810.4150.380.340.21
0.80.490.440.350.23
0.750.520.420.390.3
0.760.570.440.420.35
NMC 8 (PL, HU, CZ, SK, SL, ES, LT, LI)
CC 3 (RO, BG, HR)
SEEC 3 (SR, BIH, AL
Rusija
FSR 2 (UA, BY))
Eurozone 201%
0
0
0
0
0
0
Uee bankarske aktive u BDP Srbije
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
NCM8
CC3
SEEC3
Russia
FSR2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Uee ukupnih kredita u BDP u Srbiji
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
PL, HU, CZ, SK, SL, ES, LT, LI
RO, BG, HR
SR, BH, AL, RU, KO, MD
Rusija
UA, BY
Eurozone 49%
0.0093339014
0.0051
0.0146
0.0186
0.0272
0.0502
Uee kredita stanovnitva u BDP u Srbiji
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
Poljska
Slovaka
Maarska
Hrvatska
eka
0
0
0
0
0
u % od neto kredita
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
na Rusiju se odnosi 30% neto kredita
PLHUCZSKSLESLTLIBGROHRRUUABYALSRBIHUKUPNO
Raiffeisen Int58504110313371902981463921758773
HVB/BACA51937232410121579823433904
ING3383515N.A.2911401
Citi16020741661205
Volksbank2819349101348125
UniCredit80126689128128651207
SocGen53385563181321666
Erste1946643421181318
KBC35915520873795
OTP4405116316670
Intesa451229200475
Hypo Alpe543259109
Commerzbank4513150
Swedb9266122280
Allied Irish432432
u % od neto kredita
BANKARSKA AKTIVA
Bankarska aktiva Srbije - mld EUR
2003
2004
4.95
6.152
u mil EUR% kapitala prodat/na prodajikupacpotencijalni kupcicena
stanje 30/09/2004
Jubanka a.d. Beograd88.64%Alpha bank152
Izbor kupca u toku
Novosadska banka a.d. Novi Sad82.79%Erste bank, UniCredito, EFG Eurobankn.a.
Continental banka a.d. Novi Sad98.01%GE Capital, Nova Ljubljanska banka, EFG Eurobankn.a.
Tender o prodaji akcija objavljen
Nika banka a.d. Ni100.00%
Izbor privatizacionog savetnika u tokun.a.
Vojvoanska banka a.d. Novi Sad98.65%OTP??
Panonska banka a.d. Novi Sad87.31%
u EUR milKupac% vlasnitvacena
Delta banka a.d. BeogradIntesa BCI75% + 1 akcija277.5
Eksim banka a.d. BoegradBACA98%n.a.
Atlas banka a.d. BeogradPiraeus bank80%n.a.
20032004
ukupni krediti$2,507$3,400
krediti privredi$2,013$2,535
krediti stanovnistvu$418$817
2004/20032004/2003
total credits35.64%$893
corporate credits25.93%$522
retail credits95.45%$399
20032004
ukupni depoziti$2,955$3,530
depoziti privrede$1,473$1,615
depoziti stanovnitva$1,217$1,565
19.46%
9.64%
28.56%
20032004
krediti stanovnistvu$418$817
depoziti stanovnitva$1,217$1,565
191.2%91.5%
MARKET SHARE TOP 10 BANKS
ukupna aktivaukupni krediti
Raiffeisenbank13%15%
Delta banka11%10%
Komercijalna banka10%9%
Vojvodjanska banka8%8%
Soc Gen5%4%
Hypo Alpe adria4%6%
Jubanka4%4%
AIK bank3%3%
HVB bank3%3%
ProCredit bank2%3%
ASSETS
Raiffeisenbank$802
Delta$676
Komercijalna$602
Vojvodjanska$496
SocGen$287
Hypo Alpe adria$265
Jubanka$228
AIK bank Nis$183
HVB bank$179
ProCredit bank$152
LOANS
Raiffeisenbank$521
Delta$341
Komercijalna$303
Vojvodjanska$263
SocGen$209
Hypo Alpe adria$140
Jubanka$139
AIK bank Nis$118
HVB bank$107
ProCredit bank$87
Raiffeisenbank$718
Delta$535
Komercijalna$464
Vojvodjanska$324
SocGen$260
Hypo Alpe adria$203
Jubanka$120
AIK bank Nis$119
HVB bank$97
ProCredit bank$41
00
00
00
35%
26%
95%
2003
2004
in mio of EUR
00
00
00
10%
2003
2004
u mil EUR
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
19%
29%
krediti stanovnistvu
depoziti stanovnitva
u mil EUR
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
ukupni krediti
Hypo Alpe adria4%
SG5%
vojvodjanska8%
Raiffeisenbank 13%
Delta11%
Komercijalna10%
Jubank4%
AIK bank Nis3%
HVB bank3%
ProCredit bank2%
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
HVB bank3%
ProCredit bank3%
AIK bank Nis3%
Jubank4%
Raiffeisenbank15%
Delta10%
Komercijalna9%
Vojvodjanska8%
SG4%
Hypo Alpe adria6%
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
u mil EUR
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
u mil EUR
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
u mil EUR
-
CONCLUSION:Retail market segment is the most dynamic in term of growth rates. The large increase is primarily generated through much larger supply of retail loans in recent years. There is still enough scope for further growth.RETAIL LOANS - Share in GDPBANKING AND ECONOMY
Chart2
0.0093339014
0.0051
0.0146
0.0186
0.0272
0.0502
0.07
Retail Loans as % of Serbian GDP
Sheet1
Sheet1
0.0093339014
0.0051
0.0146
0.0186
0.0272
0.0502
0.07
Retail Loans as % of Serbian GDP
Sheet2
Sheet3
MBD00006A61.xls
Chart2
0.2672290868
0.4
0.32
0.18
0.16
0.21
0.23
Total Credits as % Serbian GDP
Chart13
0.320.180.1250.1351999
0.330.1750.130.140.12
0.310.20.170.1650.15
0.3150.250.1850.180.175
0.340.290.220.220.24
Total Credits - Share in GDP
NCM8
CC3
SEEC3
Russia
FSR2
15 EU Countries Average - 110%
Sheet1
Total assets of the banking sector, in EUR bn20032004
BANKARSKA AKTIVA4.956.15
NMC 8 (PL, HU, CZ, SK, SL, ES, LT, LI)312.6
Rusija152.5
CC3 (RO, BG, HR)50.6
FSR 2 (UA, BY)18.8
SEEC 3 (SR, BIH, AL)15.0
Share of majority owned state-owned, in % of total assets
NMC 8PL26%
HU0%
CZ3%
SK3%
SL20%
ES0%
LT5%
LI0%
CC 3RO40%
BG2%
HR4%
SEEC 3SR45%
BH6%
AL55%
.RU32%
FSR 2UA9%
BY78%
Share of majority owned state-owned, in % of total assets in Serbia
20022003Sep-04
4649%37%
Share of majority foreign-owned banks, in % of total assets
NMC 8PL72%
HU83%
CZ97%
SK98%
SL33%
ES99%
LT55%
LI88%
CC 3RO51%
BG82%
HR91%
SEEC 3SR20%
BH75%
AL46%
.RU4%
FSR 2UA8%
BY10%
Share of majority foreign owned state-owned, in % of total assets in Serbia
2003Sep-04Sep-04
20%32%50%
200320%
Sep-0432%
Sep-0450%with sales/privatization in Q4 and '05
Market concetration - 5 najvecih igraca na trzistu
NMC 8PL49%
HU52%
CZ66%
SK68%
SL69%
ES99%
LT62%
LI82%
CC 3RO49%
BG57%
HR70%
SEEC 3SR48%
BH64%
AL80%
.RU43%
FSR 2UA38%
BY88%
200348%
Sep-0447%
Total assets of the banking sector in % of GDP
NMC 8CC 3SEEC 3RusijaFSR 2
199978%42%36%36%
200081%42%38%34%21%
200180%49%44%35%23%
200275%52%42%39%30%
200376%57%44%42%35%
Total assets of the banking sector in % of GDP u Srbiji
199981%
2000125%
2001122%
200239%
200332%
200438%
Total credits of the banking sector in % of GDP
NCM8CC3SEEC3RussiaFSR2
199932%18%13%14%
200033%18%13%14%12%
200131%20%17%17%15%
200232%25%19%18%18%
200334%29%22%22%24%
year
199927%
200040%
200132%
200218%
200316%
200421%
200523%
Retail credits in % of GDP
PL, HU, CZ, SK, SL, ES, LT, LIRO, BG, HRSR, BH, AL, RU, KO, MDRusijaUA, BY
19997%2%1%
20008%5%3%2%1%
20018%6%4%2%1%
20029%8%6%3%2%
200311%11%9%3%4%
year
19991%
20001%
20011%
20022%
20033%
20045%
Mortage loans in % of GDP
19992000200120022003
Poljska1.95%2.10%2.70%3.70%4.80%
Slovaka0.00%0.40%0.90%1.00%2.00%
Maarska0.00%1.00%2.00%5.20%8.00%
Hrvatska3.20%4.00%4.20%7.00%9.80%
eka0.80%1.20%1.70%2.10%3.80%
Market shares in CEE 6 countries
Raiffeisen Int.11%
Hypo Alpe Adria7%
BACA (HVB Group)2%
Societe Generale2%
Ostali79%
TOTAL ASSETS OF INTERNATIONAL BANK IN CEE, 2003 IN EUR bn
KBC29
Erste27
UniCredito24
HVB/BACA23
Raiffeisen22
SocGen18.5
Banca Intesa13.5
Citibank12.5
OTP12
ING8
Commerzbank7
Allied Irish5
Hypo Alpe Adria3.5
ABN Amro3.3
GE Capital3.2
Volksbank3
Market shares in CEEC 20
Raiffeisen Int4%
HVB/BACA5%
Erste bank4%
KBC5%
UniCredito4%
SocGen6%
Banca Intesa3%
Citigroup2%
OTP3%
ING2%
GE Capital1%
Hypo Alpe1%
Commerzbank1%
Other63%
Sheet1
312.6
152.5
50.6
18.8
15
Sheet2
0.26
0
0.03
0.025
0.2
0
0.05
0
0.4
0.015
0.035
0.45
0.06
0.55
0.32
0.085
0.78
Sheet3
0.49
0.37
uee banaka u dravnom vlasnitvu u ukupnoj aktivi u Srbiji
0.72PLNMC 8
0.83HU
0.97CZ
0.98SK
0.33SL
0.99ES
0.55LT
0.880
0.51ROCC 3
0.82BG
0.910
0.2SRSEEC 3
0.75BH
0.460
0.040
0.08UAFSR 2
0.1BY
NMC 8
0.2
0.32
0.5
uee banaka u stranom vlasni. u ukupnoj aktivi u Srbiji
sa prodajama/privatizacijom u Q4 i 2005
0.49
0.52
0.66
0.68
0.69
0.99
0.62
0.82
0.49
0.57
0.7
0.48
0.64
0.8
0.43
0.38
0.88
0
0
Uee 5 najveih banaka u ukupnoj aktivi u Srbiji
0.780.420.360.361999
0.810.4150.380.340.21
0.80.490.440.350.23
0.750.520.420.390.3
0.760.570.440.420.35
NMC 8 (PL, HU, CZ, SK, SL, ES, LT, LI)
CC 3 (RO, BG, HR)
SEEC 3 (SR, BIH, AL
Rusija
FSR 2 (UA, BY))
Eurozone 201%
0
0
0
0
0
0
Uee bankarske aktive u BDP Srbije
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
NCM8
CC3
SEEC3
Russia
FSR2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Uee ukupnih kredita u BDP u Srbiji
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
PL, HU, CZ, SK, SL, ES, LT, LI
RO, BG, HR
SR, BH, AL, RU, KO, MD
Rusija
UA, BY
Eurozone 49%
0.0093339014
0.0051
0.0146
0.0186
0.0272
0.0502
Uee kredita stanovnitva u BDP u Srbiji
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
Poljska
Slovaka
Maarska
Hrvatska
eka
0
0
0
0
0
u % od neto kredita
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
na Rusiju se odnosi 30% neto kredita
PLHUCZSKSLESLTLIBGROHRRUUABYALSRBIHUKUPNO
Raiffeisen Int58504110313371902981463921758773
HVB/BACA51937232410121579823433904
ING3383515N.A.2911401
Citi16020741661205
Volksbank2819349101348125
UniCredit80126689128128651207
SocGen53385563181321666
Erste1946643421181318
KBC35915520873795
OTP4405116316670
Intesa451229200475
Hypo Alpe543259109
Commerzbank4513150
Swedb9266122280
Allied Irish432432
u % od neto kredita
BANKARSKA AKTIVA
Bankarska aktiva Srbije - mld EUR
2003
2004
4.95
6.152
u mil EUR% kapitala prodat/na prodajikupacpotencijalni kupcicena
stanje 30/09/2004
Jubanka a.d. Beograd88.64%Alpha bank152
Izbor kupca u toku
Novosadska banka a.d. Novi Sad82.79%Erste bank, UniCredito, EFG Eurobankn.a.
Continental banka a.d. Novi Sad98.01%GE Capital, Nova Ljubljanska banka, EFG Eurobankn.a.
Tender o prodaji akcija objavljen
Nika banka a.d. Ni100.00%
Izbor privatizacionog savetnika u tokun.a.
Vojvoanska banka a.d. Novi Sad98.65%OTP??
Panonska banka a.d. Novi Sad87.31%
u EUR milKupac% vlasnitvacena
Delta banka a.d. BeogradIntesa BCI75% + 1 akcija277.5
Eksim banka a.d. BoegradBACA98%n.a.
Atlas banka a.d. BeogradPiraeus bank80%n.a.
20032004
ukupni krediti$2,507$3,400
krediti privredi$2,013$2,535
krediti stanovnistvu$418$817
2004/20032004/2003
total credits35.64%$893
corporate credits25.93%$522
retail credits95.45%$399
20032004
ukupni depoziti$2,955$3,530
depoziti privrede$1,473$1,615
depoziti stanovnitva$1,217$1,565
19.46%
9.64%
28.56%
20032004
krediti stanovnistvu$418$817
depoziti stanovnitva$1,217$1,565
191.2%91.5%
MARKET SHARE TOP 10 BANKS
ukupna aktivaukupni krediti
Raiffeisenbank13%15%
Delta banka11%10%
Komercijalna banka10%9%
Vojvodjanska banka8%8%
Soc Gen5%4%
Hypo Alpe adria4%6%
Jubanka4%4%
AIK bank3%3%
HVB bank3%3%
ProCredit bank2%3%
ASSETS
Raiffeisenbank$802
Delta$676
Komercijalna$602
Vojvodjanska$496
SocGen$287
Hypo Alpe adria$265
Jubanka$228
AIK bank Nis$183
HVB bank$179
ProCredit bank$152
LOANS
Raiffeisenbank$521
Delta$341
Komercijalna$303
Vojvodjanska$263
SocGen$209
Hypo Alpe adria$140
Jubanka$139
AIK bank Nis$118
HVB bank$107
ProCredit bank$87
Raiffeisenbank$718
Delta$535
Komercijalna$464
Vojvodjanska$324
SocGen$260
Hypo Alpe adria$203
Jubanka$120
AIK bank Nis$119
HVB bank$97
ProCredit bank$41
00
00
00
35%
26%
95%
2003
2004
in mio of EUR
00
00
00
10%
2003
2004
u mil EUR
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
19%
29%
krediti stanovnistvu
depoziti stanovnitva
u mil EUR
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
ukupni krediti
Hypo Alpe adria4%
SG5%
vojvodjanska8%
Raiffeisenbank 13%
Delta11%
Komercijalna10%
Jubank4%
AIK bank Nis3%
HVB bank3%
ProCredit bank2%
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
HVB bank3%
ProCredit bank3%
AIK bank Nis3%
Jubank4%
Raiffeisenbank15%
Delta10%
Komercijalna9%
Vojvodjanska8%
SG4%
Hypo Alpe adria6%
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
u mil EUR
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
u mil EUR
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
u mil EUR
-
DEVELOPMENT OF SERBIAN BANKING SEKTOR in 2007Concentration level in Serbia banking sectorover 5% of assets2% - 5% of assetsBelow 2% of assetsNumber ofbanks
Chart5
0.5030.5260.51
0.1820.2580.3227
0.3150.2160.1673
30
8
10
6
6
23
20
Broj banaka
5
5
2005
2006
Juni 2007
Sheet1 (2)
Razvoj referentne stopa na RSDRazvoj EURIBOR-a
1M EURIBOR6M EURIBOR
01.09.200618.00%01.01.20062.41%2.64%0.02%0.03%
03.11.200617.50%31.03.20062.65%2.97%0.03%0.03%
15.11.200616.50%30.06.20062.91%3.24%0.03%0.03%
08.12.200615.50%30.09.20063.24%3.56%0.03%0.04%
27.12.200614.00%31.12.20063.63%3.85%0.04%0.04%
31.01.200713.00%31.03.20073.87%4.03%0.04%0.04%
02.03.200711.50%30.06.20074.12%4.30%0.04%0.04%
30.03.200710.50%31.08.20074.42%4.73%0.04%0.05%
04.05.200710.00%
01.06.20079.50%
28.08.20079.75%
Sheet1 (2)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Sheet2 (2)
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
1M EURIBOR
6M EURIBOR
RIEEF
Top 20 by TA
1HAAB2,007
2Banca Intesa1,727
3RBRS1,665
4Komercijalna1,398
5AIK banka1,140
6Eurobank950
7Unicredit869
8SG768
9ProCredit686
10Vojvoanska602
11Alpha582
12Volksbank570
13OTP banka403
14Erste398
15Piraeus bank390
16Agrobanka355
17Meridian338
18Continental294
19NBG291
20Panonska239
Gross loans June 2007khlk
June0.0
1Banca Intesa910
2Komercijalna845
3RBRS836
4HAAB792
5AIK banka512
6Vojvoanska481
7Eurobank468
8SG422
9Unicredit383
10Alpha373
11ProCredit357
12Volksbank273
13Piraeus bank228
14OTP banka223
15Agrobanka203
16Erste199
17Meridian167
18Panonska162
19NBG151
20Continental149
EQUITY
1RBRS302
2Banca Intesa277
3AIK banka231
4Eurobank225
5Komercijalna216
6HAAB194
7Agrobanka168
8Unicredit164
9SG156
10OTP banka132
11Vojvoanska125
12Alpha121
13Volksbank95
14Piraeus bank63
15NBG61
16Erste60
17Meridian49
18ProCredit49
19Continental42
20Panonska34
RIEEF
2006.7058059814HAAB
1727.4217023894Banca Intesa
1665.1270730676553.0259
1398.2098034303Komercijalna
1139.5549152551AIK banka
950.4077043583Eurobank
868.7520594644Unicredit
767.9311335343SG
686.224542995ProCredit
602.2205898357Vojvoanska
581.6229845088Alpha
569.6664743234Volksbank
403.2741877928OTP banka
397.7965185877Erste
390.0761274223Piraeus bank
354.9950395696Agrobanka
337.9692984787Meridian
293.6878522602Continental
291.4362976967NBG
239.2407504423Panonska
Sheet1
909.5843741379Banca Intesa
845.1659339908Komercijalna
836.2113826694550
792.1695303029HAAB
511.941628894AIK banka
481.1365965879Vojvoanska
467.8289132355Eurobank
421.5525134957SG
383.2626345453Unicredit
373.1462542423Alpha
356.5790113052ProCredit
273.3428492611Volksbank
228.0466660086Piraeus bank
223.1494937071OTP banka
202.8459077714Agrobanka
199.4434953825Erste
167.485618548Meridian
162.4763430492Panonska
151.0700483642NBG
148.9173480931Continental
Sheet2
301.863856431
276.6172648288
230.9841013143
224.7418298421
215.8066267301
193.6032085886
168.3521627224
163.8118250588
156.009738641
132.1052218654
124.9736540403
120.9136556095
94.5954844898
62.6127042698
60.8609889985
59.5888157478
49.3691648508
48.7605757136
41.6606053244
34.036411078
Ranking by equity amount as of 30th June 07 (EUR mio)
Sheet3
RIEEFLocal
6/30/0635.095
7/31/0635.095
8/31/0693.043888
9/30/06193.796
10/31/06267.604
11/30/06332.716
12/31/06378.49277.772
1/31/07385.677259.758
2/28/07449.686252.101
3/31/07461.419257.872
4/30/07476.303245.559
5/31/07507.807214.174
6/30/07525.281212.906
7/31/07539.728185.901
8/31/07584.102180.904
ucesce u aktivi
20052006Jun-07
preko 5% aktive50.30%52.60%51.00%
2% do 5% aktive18.20%25.80%32.27%
ispod 2% aktive31.50%21.60%16.73%
ukupno100.00%100.00%100.00%
0.5030.5260.51
0.1820.2580.3227
0.3150.2160.1673
30
8
10
6
6
23
20
Broj banaka
5
5
2005
2006
Juni 2007
5
-
Share of foreign-owned banks in the total assets in Serbia In mid-2007 drop of the share of foreign-owned banks was recorded for the first time since 2004, which primarily results from foreign borrowing and capital increase by local banks. Share of 5 biggest banks in the total assets in Serbia Furthermore, due to the increased competition (and cross-border financing) as well as quality market dispersion, share of 5 biggest banks in the aggregate assets still shows a decreasing trend.Source: Raiffeisen bankDEVELOPMENT OF SERBIAN BANKING SEKTOR in 2007
Chart2
0.47
0.5
0.47
0.45
ucesce 5 najvecih u aktivi
Sheet1 (2)
Razvoj referentne stopa na RSDRazvoj EURIBOR-a
1M EURIBOR6M EURIBOR
01.09.200618.00%01.01.20062.41%2.64%0.02%0.03%
03.11.200617.50%31.03.20062.65%2.97%0.03%0.03%
15.11.200616.50%30.06.20062.91%3.24%0.03%0.03%
08.12.200615.50%30.09.20063.24%3.56%0.03%0.04%
27.12.200614.00%31.12.20063.63%3.85%0.04%0.04%
31.01.200713.00%31.03.20073.87%4.03%0.04%0.04%
02.03.200711.50%30.06.20074.12%4.30%0.04%0.04%
30.03.200710.50%31.08.20074.42%4.73%0.04%0.05%
04.05.200710.00%
01.06.20079.50%
28.08.20079.75%
Sheet1 (2)
0.18
0.175
0.165
0.155
0.14
0.13
0.115
0.105
0.1
0.095
0.0975
Sheet2 (2)
0.024070.02637
0.026470.02968
0.029080.03241
0.032420.035583
0.036340.03851
0.038650.04028
0.041190.043
0.044210.04727
1M EURIBOR
6M EURIBOR
RIEEF
Top 20 by TA
1HAAB2,007
2Banca Intesa1,727
3RBRS1,665
4Komercijalna1,398
5AIK banka1,140
6Eurobank950
7Unicredit869
8SG768
9ProCredit686
10Vojvoanska602
11Alpha582
12Volksbank570
13OTP banka403
14Erste398
15Piraeus bank390
16Agrobanka355
17Meridian338
18Continental294
19NBG291
20Panonska239
Gross loans June 2007khlk
June0.0
1Banca Intesa910
2Komercijalna845
3RBRS836
4HAAB792
5AIK banka512
6Vojvoanska481
7Eurobank468
8SG422
9Unicredit383
10Alpha373
11ProCredit357
12Volksbank273
13Piraeus bank228
14OTP banka223
15Agrobanka203
16Erste199
17Meridian167
18Panonska162
19NBG151
20Continental149
EQUITY
1RBRS302
2Banca Intesa277
3AIK banka231
4Eurobank225
5Komercijalna216
6HAAB194
7Agrobanka168
8Unicredit164
9SG156
10OTP banka132
11Vojvoanska125
12Alpha121
13Volksbank95
14Piraeus bank63
15NBG61
16Erste60
17Meridian49
18ProCredit49
19Continental42
20Panonska34
RIEEF
2006.7058059814HAAB
1727.4217023894Banca Intesa
1665.1270730676553.0259
1398.2098034303Komercijalna
1139.5549152551AIK banka
950.4077043583Eurobank
868.7520594644Unicredit
767.9311335343SG
686.224542995ProCredit
602.2205898357Vojvoanska
581.6229845088Alpha
569.6664743234Volksbank
403.2741877928OTP banka
397.7965185877Erste
390.0761274223Piraeus bank
354.9950395696Agrobanka
337.9692984787Meridian
293.6878522602Continental
291.4362976967NBG
239.2407504423Panonska
Sheet1
909.5843741379Banca Intesa
845.1659339908Komercijalna
836.2113826694550
792.1695303029HAAB
511.941628894AIK banka
481.1365965879Vojvoanska
467.8289132355Eurobank
421.5525134957SG
383.2626345453Unicredit
373.1462542423Alpha
356.5790113052ProCredit
273.3428492611Volksbank
228.0466660086Piraeus bank
223.1494937071OTP banka
202.8459077714Agrobanka
199.4434953825Erste
167.485618548Meridian
162.4763430492Panonska
151.0700483642NBG
148.9173480931Continental
Sheet2
301.863856431
276.6172648288
230.9841013143
224.7418298421
215.8066267301
193.6032085886
168.3521627224
163.8118250588
156.009738641
132.1052218654
124.9736540403
120.9136556095
94.5954844898
62.6127042698
60.8609889985
59.5888157478
49.3691648508
48.7605757136
41.6606053244
34.036411078
Ranking by equity amount as of 30th June 07 (EUR mio)
Sheet3
RIEEFLocalTotal
6/30/0635.1547.1582.2
7/31/0635.1520.3555.4
8/31/0693.0457.9550.9
9/30/06193.8401.2595.0
10/31/06267.6352.6620.2
11/30/06332.7294.4627.1
12/31/06378.5277.8656.3
1/31/07385.7259.8645.4
2/28/07449.7252.1701.8
3/31/07461.4257.9719.3
4/30/07476.3245.6721.9
5/31/07507.8214.2722.0
6/30/07525.3212.9738.2
7/31/07539.7185.9725.6
8/31/07584.1180.9765.0
ucesce u aktivi
20052006Jun-07
preko 5% aktive50.30%52.60%51.00%
2% do 5% aktive18.20%25.80%32.27%
ispod 2% aktive31.50%21.60%16.73%
ukupno100.00%100.00%100.00%
0.5030.5260.51
0.1820.2580.3227
0.3150.2160.1673
30
8
10
6
6
23
20
Broj banaka
5
5
2005
2006
Juni 2007
1650.332007
retail acc819.67ucesce 5 najvecih u aktivi
equity770.46200447%
other liab535.33200550%
corp deposits380.33200647%
other deposits83.57Juni 200745%
provisions25.99
borrowings-223.51
2006
borrowings1,341
retail acc499
equity476
other deposits337
other liab
corp deposits222
2,875
ucesce str. Banaka u aktivi
200438%
200569%
200679%
Juni 200776.4%
5
0
0
0
0
ucesce str. Banaka u aktivi
0
0
0
0
ucesce 5 najvecih u aktivi
Chart1
0.38
0.69
0.79
0.755
ucesce str. Banaka u aktivi
Sheet1 (2)
Razvoj referentne stopa na RSDRazvoj EURIBOR-a
1M EURIBOR6M EURIBOR
01.09.200618.00%01.01.20062.41%2.64%0.02%0.03%
03.11.200617.50%31.03.20062.65%2.97%0.03%0.03%
15.11.200616.50%30.06.20062.91%3.24%0.03%0.03%
08.12.200615.50%30.09.20063.24%3.56%0.03%0.04%
27.12.200614.00%31.12.20063.63%3.85%0.04%0.04%
31.01.200713.00%31.03.20073.87%4.03%0.04%0.04%
02.03.200711.50%30.06.20074.12%4.30%0.04%0.04%
30.03.200710.50%31.08.20074.42%4.73%0.04%0.05%
04.05.200710.00%
01.06.20079.50%
28.08.20079.75%
Sheet1 (2)
0.18
0.175
0.165
0.155
0.14
0.13
0.115
0.105
0.1
0.095
0.0975
Sheet2 (2)
0.024070.02637
0.026470.02968
0.029080.03241
0.032420.035583
0.036340.03851
0.038650.04028
0.041190.043
0.044210.04727
1M EURIBOR
6M EURIBOR
RIEEF
Top 20 by TA
$1HAAB$2,007
$2Banca Intesa$1,727
$3RBRS$1,665
$4Komercijalna$1,398
$5AIK banka$1,140
$6Eurobank$950
$7Unicredit$869
$8SG$768
$9ProCredit$686
$10Vojvoanska$602
$11Alpha$582
$12Volksbank$570
$13OTP banka$403
$14Erste$398
$15Piraeus bank$390
$16Agrobanka$355
$17Meridian$338
$18Continental$294
$19NBG$291
$20Panonska$239
Gross loans June 2007khlk
June0.0
$1Banca Intesa$910
$2Komercijalna$845
$3RBRS$836
$4HAAB$792
$5AIK banka$512
$6Vojvoanska$481
$7Eurobank$468
$8SG$422
$9Unicredit$383
$10Alpha$373
$11ProCredit$357
$12Volksbank$273
$13Piraeus bank$228
$14OTP banka$223
$15Agrobanka$203
$16Erste$199
$17Meridian$167
$18Panonska$162
$19NBG$151
$20Continental$149
EQUITY
$1RBRS$302
$2Banca Intesa$277
$3AIK banka$231
$4Eurobank$225
$5Komercijalna$216
$6HAAB$194
$7Agrobanka$168
$8Unicredit$164
$9SG$156
$10OTP banka$132
$11Vojvoanska$125
$12Alpha$121
$13Volksbank$95
$14Piraeus bank$63
$15NBG$61
$16Erste$60
$17Meridian$49
$18ProCredit$49
$19Continental$42
$20Panonska$34
RIEEF
2006.7058059814HAAB
1727.4217023894Banca Intesa
1665.1270730676553.0259
1398.2098034303Komercijalna
1139.5549152551AIK banka
950.4077043583Eurobank
868.7520594644Unicredit
767.9311335343SG
686.224542995ProCredit
602.2205898357Vojvoanska
581.6229845088Alpha
569.6664743234Volksbank
403.2741877928OTP banka
397.7965185877Erste
390.0761274223Piraeus bank
354.9950395696Agrobanka
337.9692984787Meridian
293.6878522602Continental
291.4362976967NBG
239.2407504423Panonska
Sheet1
909.5843741379Banca Intesa
845.1659339908Komercijalna
836.2113826694550
792.1695303029HAAB
511.941628894AIK banka
481.1365965879Vojvoanska
467.8289132355Eurobank
421.5525134957SG
383.2626345453Unicredit
373.1462542423Alpha
356.5790113052ProCredit
273.3428492611Volksbank
228.0466660086Piraeus bank
223.1494937071OTP banka
202.8459077714Agrobanka
199.4434953825Erste
167.485618548Meridian
162.4763430492Panonska
151.0700483642NBG
148.9173480931Continental
Sheet2
301.863856431
276.6172648288
230.9841013143
224.7418298421
215.8066267301
193.6032085886
168.3521627224
163.8118250588
156.009738641
132.1052218654
124.9736540403
120.9136556095
94.5954844898
62.6127042698
60.8609889985
59.5888157478
49.3691648508
48.7605757136
41.6606053244
34.036411078
Ranking by equity amount as of 30th June 07 (EUR mio)
Sheet3
RIEEFLocalTotal
6/30/0635.1547.1582.2
7/31/0635.1520.3555.4
8/31/0693.0457.9550.9
9/30/06193.8401.2595.0
10/31/06267.6352.6620.2
11/30/06332.7294.4627.1
12/31/06378.5277.8656.3
1/31/07385.7259.8645.4
2/28/07449.7252.1701.8
3/31/07461.4257.9719.3
4/30/07476.3245.6721.9
5/31/07507.8214.2722.0
6/30/07525.3212.9738.2
7/31/07539.7185.9725.6
8/31/07584.1180.9765.0
ucesce u aktivi
20052006Jun-07
preko 5% aktive50.30%52.60%51.00%
2% do 5% aktive18.20%25.80%32.27%
ispod 2% aktive31.50%21.60%16.73%
ukupno100.00%100.00%100.00%
0.5030.5260.51
0.1820.2580.3227
0.3150.2160.1673
30
8
10
6
6
23
20
Broj banaka
5
5
2005
2006
Juni 2007
1650.332007
retail acc819.67
equity770.46
other liab535.33
corp deposits380.33
other deposits83.57
provisions25.99
borrowings-223.51
2006
borrowings$1,341
retail acc$499
equity$476
other deposits$337
other liab
corp deposits$222
$2,875
ucesce str. Banaka u aktivi
200438%
200569%
200679%
200775.5%
5
ucesce str. Banaka u aktivi
-
In 2006 RSD nominal appreciation towards EUR was 7.66% In 2007 RSD deppreciated against EUR nominally for 0.90% (31.12.2006-17.09.2007) It is expected that the EUR/RSD would be around 79 level at the end March 20092007 CPI was 11.9%BANKING AND ECONOMYEUR/RSD ANALYSIS AND FORECAST
Sheet1
Trend EUR/CSD
HistoryForecast
30.03.2006.30.06.2007.30.09.2007.31.12.2007.30.03.2008.
81.574279.025479.000079.500079.5000
Sheet2
Sheet3
-
MONETARY POLICY and EFFECTS ON INTEREST RATES Development of reference i.r. on dinars (2006 2007)Izvor: NBS16,06%15,25%19,13%18,00%
Chart1
0.1912999916389610.18
0.1920999908389640.18
0.1994000053389650.18
0.2054000092389660.18
0.2045000076389670.18
0.2053000069389680.18
0.2028000069389710.18
0.2043000031389720.18
0.2057999992389730.18
0.2054000092389740.18
0.2056999969389750.18
0.2034000015389780.18
0.2027000046389790.18
0.2019000053389800.18
0.2020000076389810.18
0.2020000076389820.18
0.2011000061389850.18
0.2011000061389860.18
0.2007999992389870.18
0.2013999939389880.18
0.1985000038389890.18
0.2004999924389920.18
0.1995999908389930.18
0.1996999931389940.18
0.2001000023389950.18
0.1993000031389960.18
0.1993000031389990.18
0.2004000092390000.18
0.1972999954390010.18
0.1945999908390020.18
0.1934000015390030.18
0.1976000023390060.18
0.1922999954390070.18
0.1952000046390080.18
0.1904999924390090.18
0.1901000023390100.18
0.1887999916390130.18
0.1888999939390140.18
0.1903000069390150.18
0.1892000008390160.18
0.1890999985390170.18
0.1863999939390200.18
0.1890999985390210.18
0.1879000092390220.18
0.1873999977390230.18
0.1856999969390240.175
0.1832999992390270.175
0.1834000015390280.175
0.1838999939390290.175
0.1829000092390300.175
0.1822999954390310.175
0.1820999908390340.175
0.1830999947390350.175
0.1821999931390360.165
0.1753000069390370.165
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0.1746999931390420.165
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0.1742000008390550.165
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0.1709000015390580.165
0.1620000076390590.155
0.1642000008390620.155
0.1626000023390630.155
0.1637000084390640.155
0.1656999969390650.155
0.1646999931390660.155
0.1686000061390690.155
0.1556000042390700.155
0.1532999992390710.155
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0.1594999981390730.155
0.1535000038390760.155
0.1552000046390770.155
0.1490999985390780.14
0.1521000004390790.14
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0.1492000008390850.14
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0.1492000008390900.14
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0.1501000023390940.14
0.1478999996390970.14
0.1490999985390980.14
0.1505000019390990.14
0.15391000.14
0.1477000046391010.14
0.1431999969391040.14
0.1446000004391050.14
0.1451000023391060.14
0.1439999962391070.14
0.1435000038391080.14
0.1431999969391110.14
0.1418000031391120.14
0.1392000008391130.13
0.1385999966391140.13
0.1397000027391150.13
0.1373999977391180.13
0.1364000034391190.13
0.1372999954391200.13
0.1326000023391210.13
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0.1302000046391320.13
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0.1206000042391420.13
0.1186999989391430.115
0.1189999962391460.115
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0.1175391500.115
0.1189999962391530.115
0.1180000019391540.115
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0.1188000011391600.115
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0.1106000042391890.105
0.1106999969391900.105
0.1105000019391910.105
0.1102000046391920.105
0.1105000019391950.105
0.1096000004391960.105
0.1093000031391970.105
0.1081999969391980.105
0.1085000038391990.105
0.1085000038392020.105
0.1055000019392050.105
0.1039999962392060.1
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0.1042000008392120.1
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0.1014000034394230.095
0.1014999962394260.095
0.1013000011394270.095
0.1013000011394280.095
0.1014000034394290.095
0.1010999966394300.095
0.1013000011394330.095
0.1015999985394340.095
0.1014000034394350.095
0.1010999966394360.095
0.1010999966394370.095
0.1014000034394400.095
0.1011999989394410.095
0.1010999966394420.095
0.1009000015394430.095
0.1023999977394440.1
0.1022999954394470.1
0.1031999969394510.1
0.1030000019394550.1
0.1027999973394560.1
0.1023999977394570.1
0.1025394580.1
0.1028999996394610.1
0.1039000034394620.1
0.1043000031394630.1
0.1036999989394640.1
0.1039000034394650.1
0.1038000011394680.1
0.1047000027394690.1
0.1042000008394700.1
0.1044999981394710.1
0.1035000038394720.1
0.1043000031394750.1
0.1043000031394760.1
0.1036999989394770.1
0.1039999962394780.1
0.1047000027394790.1
0.1040999985394820.1
0.105394830.1
0.1053999996394840.1075
0.1085999966394850.1075
0.1093999958394860.1075
0.1109000015394890.1075
0.1114000034394900.1075
0.1118999958394910.1075
0.1110999966394920.1075
0.1132999992394960.1075
0.1147999954394970.1075
0.1138000011394980.1075
0.1147000027394990.1075
0.1151000023395000.1075
0.115395030.1075
0.1152999973395040.1075
0.1159000015395050.1075
0.1164000034395060.1075
0.1214000034395070.115
0.1219999981395100.115
0.1221000004395110.115
0.1227999973395120.115
0.1230000019395130.115
0.1230000019395140.115
0.1234000015395170.115
0.1232999992395180.115
0.1232999992395190.115
0.1235999966395200.115
0.1515999985395210.145
0.1519999981395240.145
0.1518999958395250.145
0.1519999981395260.145
0.1521000004395270.145
0.1518999958395280.145
0.1522000027395310.145
0.1531999969395320.145
0.1531000042395330.145
0.1531999969395340.145
0.1531000042395350.145
0.1535000038395380.145
0.1531000042395390.145
0.1535000038395400.145
0.1534000015395410.145
0.1532999992395420.145
0.1528999996395450.145
0.1528999996395460.145
0.1526000023395470.145
0.1528999996395480.145
0.1523999977395490.145
0.1528999996395520.145
0.1528999996395530.145
0.1527000046395540.145
0.1526000023395550.145
0.1527999973395560.145
0.1531999969395590.145
0.1532999992395600.145
0.1531000042395610.145
0.1566395620.145
0.1531000042395630.145
0.1606395670.1525
1m Belibor
3m Belibor
Ref rate
Ref rate & Belibor
Date1m Belibor3m BeliborRef rate
A-0516.44%
A-0516.54%
A-0516.66%
A-0516.78%
A-0516.83%
A-0516.73%
A-0516.81%
A-0516.78%
S-0516.81%
S-0516.71%
S-0516.80%
S-0516.73%
S-0516.63%
S-0516.54%
S-0516.73%
S-0516.70%
S-0516.91%
S-0516.77%
S-0516.81%
S-0516.97%
S-0517.05%
S-0516.88%
S-0516.86%
S-0516.77%
S-0516.86%
S-0516.72%
S-0516.84%
S-0516.81%
S-0516.96%
S-0517.03%
O-0516.80%
O-0516.98%
O-0517.04%
O-0516.95%
O-0517.13%
O-0516.99%
O-0517.23%
O-0517.18%
O-0517.41%
O-0517.41%
O-0517.25%
O-0517.39%
O-0517.40%
O-0517.39%
O-0517.29%
O-0517.44%
O-0517.61%
O-0517.52%
O-0517.71%
O-0517.50%
O-0517.96%
N-0517.96%
N-0517.88%
N-0518.32%
N-0518.29%
N-0518.52%
N-0518.86%
N-0518.91%
N-0518.87%
N-0519.00%
N-0518.92%
N-0519.08%
N-0518.97%
N-0518.99%
N-0518.94%
N-0518.96%
N-0519.01%
N-0518.99%
N-0518.87%
N-0518.91%
N-0519.14%
N-0519.11%
N-0519.27%
D-0519.31%
D-0519.30%
D-0519.35%
D-0519.33%
D-0519.41%
D-0519.58%
D-0519.61%
D-0519.74%
D-0519.90%
D-0519.86%
D-0519.96%
D-0520.08%
D-0520.27%
D-0520.16%
D-0520.09%
D-0520.14%
D-0521.42%
D-0522.16%
D-0522.54%
D-0523.10%
D-0523.01%
D-0522.85%
J-0622.75%
J-0623.21%
J-0622.98%
J-0623.08%
J-0623.07%
J-0623.05%
J-0623.07%
J-0623.19%
J-0623.19%
J-0623.26%
J-0623.16%
J-0623.15%
J-0623.12%
J-0622.92%
J-0623.03%
J-0623.06%
J-0623.03%
J-0622.99%
J-0623.11%
J-0623.39%
F-0623.49%
F-0623.57%
F-0623.54%
F-0623.31%
F-0623.42%
F-0623.45%
F-0623.54%
F-0623.71%
F-0623.54%
F-0623.46%
F-0623.46%
F-0623.55%
F-0623.46%
F-0623.93%
F-0623.84%
F-0623.81%
F-0623.90%
F-0623.97%
F-0623.63%
F-0623.71%
M-0623.65%
M-0623.68%
M-0623.54%
M-0623.61%
M-0623.70%
M-0623.80%
M-0624.16%
M-0624.38%
M-0624.48%
M-0624.54%
M-0624.72%
M-0624.74%
M-0624.73%
M-0624.57%
M-0624.81%
M-0624.75%
M-0624.68%
M-0624.74%
M-0624.79%
M-0624.76%
M-0624.73%
M-0624.65%
M-0624.58%
A-0624.47%
A-0624.64%
A-0624.58%
A-0624.51%
A-0624.42%
A-0624.59%
A-0624.59%
A-0624.56%
A-0624.55%
A-0624.57%
A-0624.69%
A-0624.64%
A-0624.63%
A-0624.52%
A-0624.58%
A-0624.53%
A-0624.41%
M-0624.41%
M-0624.48%
M-0624.37%
M-0624.44%
M-0624.43%
M-0624.46%
M-0624.54%
M-0624.46%
M-0624.54%
M-0624.39%
M-0624.41%
M-0624.37%
M-0624.49%
M-0624.39%
M-0624.41%
M-0624.49%
M-0624.50%
M-0624.60%
M-0624.45%
M-0624.47%
M-0624.51%
M-0624.52%
J-0624.48%
J-0624.53%
J-0624.44%
J-0624.46%
J-0624.54%
J-0624.30%
J-0624.30%
J-0624.40%
J-0624.03%
J-0624.21%
J-0624.17%
J-0623.81%
J-0623.89%
J-0623.66%
J-0623.69%
J-0623.53%
J-0623.78%
J-0623.64%
J-0622.94%
J-0622.93%
J-0622.87%
J-0623.07%
J-0623.17%
J-0623.19%
J-0622.73%
J-0623.03%
J-0622.99%
J-0623.30%
J-0623.64%
J-0623.40%
J-0623.32%
J-0623.73%
J-0623.33%
J-0623.73%
J-0623.60%
J-0623.63%
J-0623.80%
J-0623.71%
J-0623.34%
J-0623.66%
J-0623.33%
J-0623.53%
J-0622.90%
A-0623.05%
A-0622.90%
A-0622.98%
A-0622.86%
A-0622.87%
A-0622.69%
A-0622.75%
A-0622.81%
A-0622.86%
A-0622.53%
A-0622.68%
A-0622.69%
A-0622.86%
A-0622.35%
A-0622.24%
A-0621.90%
A-0621.39%
A-0620.59%
A-0620.16%
A-0620.09%
A-0619.75%
A-0620.35%
A-0620.16%
S-0619.13%20.10%18.00%
S-0619.21%20.18%18.00%
S-0619.94%21.00%18.00%
S-0620.54%21.46%18.00%
S-0620.45%21.24%18.00%
S-0620.53%21.03%18.00%
S-0620.28%21.23%18.00%
S-0620.43%21.38%18.00%
S-0620.58%21.38%18.00%
S-0620.54%21.43%18.00%
S-0620.57%21.49%18.00%
S-0620.34%21.21%18.00%
S-0620.27%21.11%18.00%
S-0620.19%21.11%18.00%
S-0620.20%21.11%18.00%
S-0620.20%21.11%18.00%
S-0620.11%21.00%18.00%
S-0620.11%21.09%18.00%
S-0620.08%20.96%18.00%
S-0620.14%20.99%18.00%
S-0619.85%20.62%18.00%
O-0620.05%20.94%18.00%
O-0619.96%20.95%18.00%
O-0619.97%20.85%18.00%
O-0620.01%21.02%18.00%
O-0619.93%20.85%18.00%
O-0619.93%20.84%18.00%
O-0620.04%20.94%18.00%
O-0619.73%20.54%18.00%
O-0619.46%20.16%18.00%
O-0619.34%19.89%18.00%
O-0619.76%20.50%18.00%
O-0619.23%19.89%18.00%
O-0619.52%20.28%18.00%
O-0619.05%19.81%18.00%
O-0619.01%19.86%18.00%
O-0618.88%19.66%18.00%
O-0618.89%19.69%18.00%
O-0619.03%19.81%18.00%
O-0618.92%19.58%18.00%
O-0618.91%19.54%18.00%
O-0618.64%19.15%18.00%
O-0618.91%19.64%18.00%
N-0618.79%19.48%18.00%
N-0618.74%19.34%18.00%
N-0618.57%19.26%17.50%
N-0618.33%18.98%17.50%
N-0618.34%18.96%17.50%
N-0618.39%18.99%17.50%
N-0618.29%18.90%17.50%
N-0618.23%18.89%17.50%
N-0618.21%18.78%17.50%
N-0618.31%18.97%17.50%
N-0618.22%18.79%16.50%
N-0617.53%17.99%16.50%
N-0617.64%18.10%16.50%
N-0617.64%18.09%16.50%
N-0617.47%18.03%16.50%
N-0617.53%18.04%16.50%
N-0617.36%17.80%16.50%
N-0617.31%17.75%16.50%
N-0617.39%17.73%16.50%
N-0617.41%17.83%16.50%
N-0617.36%17.69%16.50%
N-0617.41%17.75%16.50%
D-0617.21%17.54%16.50%
D-0617.42%17.81%16.50%
D-0617.33%17.73%16.50%
D-0617.23%17.57%16.50%
D-0617.09%17.47%16.50%
D-0616.20%16.54%15.50%
D-0616.42%16.88%15.50%
D-0616.26%16.59%15.50%
D-0616.37%16.79%15.50%
D-0616.57%16.98%15.50%
D-0616.47%16.88%15.50%
D-0616.86%17.52%15.50%
D-0615.56%15.61%15.50%
D-0615.33%15.37%15.50%
D-0615.58%15.72%15.50%
D-0615.95%16.47%15.50%
D-0615.35%15.43%15.50%
D-0615.52%15.67%15.50%
D-0614.91%15.06%14.00%
D-0615.21%15.50%14.00%
D-0615.34%15.57%14.00%
J-0714.92%15.10%14.00%
J-0714.95%15.24%14.00%
J-0714.66%14.97%14.00%
J-0714.92%15.31%14.00%
J-0714.91%15.27%14.00%
J-0714.77%15.12%14.00%
J-0714.91%15.29%14.00%
J-0715.01%15.33%14.00%
J-0714.79%15.13%14.00%
J-0714.91%15.28%14.00%
J-0715.05%15.40%14.00%
J-0715.00%15.39%14.00%
J-0714.77%15.14%14.00%
J-0714.32%14.47%14.00%
J-0714.46%14.88%14.00%
J-0714.51%14.90%14.00%
J-0714.40%14.70%14.00%
J-0714.35%14.70%14.00%
J-0714.32%14.61%14.00%
J-0714.18%14.32%14.00%
J-0713.92%14.38%13.00%
F-0713.86%14.21%13.00%
F-0713.97%14.52%13.00%
F-0713.74%14.11%13.00%
F-0713.64%14.09%13.00%
F-0713.73%14.19%13.00%
F-0713.26%13.66%13.00%
F-0713.17%13.54%13.00%
F-0713.10%13.45%13.00%
F-0713.09%13.53%13.00%
F-0713.03%13.45%13.00%
F-0713.11%13.58%13.00%
F-0713.02%13.41%13.00%
F-0713.09%13.44%13.00%
F-0713.19%13.55%13.00%
F-0713.03%13.58%13.00%
F-0713.07%13.37%13.00%
F-0713.19%13.39%13.00%
F-0713.19%13.48%13.00%
F-0713.19%13.40%13.00%
M-0712.06%12.48%13.00%
M-0711.87%12.39%11.50%
M-0711.90%12.45%11.50%
M-0711.90%12.53%11.50%
M-0711.90%12.39%11.50%
M-0711.81%12.32%11.50%
M-0711.75%12.16%11.50%
M-0711.90%12.30%11.50%
M-0711.80%12.20%11.50%
M-0711.86%12.31%11.50%
M-0711.84%12.34%11.50%
M-0711.91%12.40%11.50%
M-0711.88%12.26%11.50%
M-0711.95%12.38%11.50%
M-0711.94%12.37%11.50%
M-0711.97%12.42%11.50%
M-0711.92%12.32%11.50%
M-0711.91%12.30%11.50%
M-0711.94%12.33%11.50%
M-0711.96%12.35%11.50%
M-0711.28%11.65%11.50%
M-0711.10%11.68%10.50%
A-0711.12%11.85%10.50%
A-0711.12%11.50%10.50%
A-0711.05%11.65%10.50%
A-0711.08%11.63%10.50%
A-0711.06%11.45%10.50%
A-0711.07%11.38%10.50%
A-0711.11%11.40%10.50%
A-0711.11%11.40%10.50%
A-0711.10%11.38%10.50%
A-0711.06%11.39%10.50%
A-0711.07%11.38%10.50%
A-0711.05%11.48%10.50%
A-0711.02%11.38%10.50%
A-0711.05%11.45%10.50%
A-0710.96%11.29%10.50%
A-0710.93%11.13%10.50%
A-0710.82%11.02%10.50%
A-0710.85%11.13%10.50%
A-0710.85%11.13%10.50%
M-0710.55%10.88%10.50%
M-0710.40%10.82%10.00%
M-0710.47%10.86%10.00%
M-0710.63%10.87%10.00%
M-0710.63%10.87%10.00%
M-0710.42%10.80%10.00%
M-0710.43%10.88%10.00%
M-0710.43%10.88%10.00%
M-0710.46%10.89%10.00%
M-0710.63%10.98%10.00%
M-0710.42%10.79%10.00%
M-0710.47%10.93%10.00%
M-0710.57%10.86%10.00%
M-0710.44%10.78%10.00%
M-0710.44%10.80%10.00%
M-0710.43%10.79%10.00%
M-0710.46%10.79%10.00%
M-0710.40%10.68%10.00%
M-0710.40%10.68%10.00%
M-0710.38%10.63%10.00%
M-079.95%10.21%10.00%
J-079.86%10.15%9.50%
J-079.88%10.10%9.50%
J-079.88%10.09%9.50%
J-079.91%10.07%9.50%
J-079.95%10.20%9.50%
J-079.86%10.08%9.50%
J-079.84%9.98%9.50%
J-079.91%10.03%9.50%
J-079.93%10.12%9.50%
J-079.85%10.13%9.50%
J-079.86%10.16%9.50%
J-079.82%10.01%9.50%
J-079.92%10.15%9.50%
J-079.85%10.09%9.50%
J-079.85%10.03%9.50%
J-079.81%9.97%9.50%
J-079.92%10.32%9.50%
J-079.98%10.20%9.50%
J-079.90%10.24%9.50%
J-079.93%10.35%9.50%
J-079.94%10.30%9.50%
J-079.91%10.25%9.50%
J-0710.02%10.43%9.50%
J-079.92%10.23%9.50%
J-079.94%10.30%9.50%
J-079.87%10.33%9.50%
J-079.92%10.24%9.50%
J-079.91%10.29%9.50%
J-079.89%10.26%9.50%
J-079.91%10.26%9.50%
J-079.90%10.20%9.50%
J-079.91%10.21%9.50%
J-0710.03%10.32%9.50%
J-079.98%10.38%9.50%
J-0710.06%10.36%9.50%
J-0710.02%10.36%9.50%
J-0710.02%10.37%9.50%
J-0710.14%10.41%9.50%
J-0710.10%10.43%9.50%
J-0710.10%10.43%9.50%
J-0710.15%10.44%9.50%
J-0710.03%10.43%9.50%
J-0710.05%10.31%9.50%
A-0710.06%10.31%9.50%
A-0710.06%10.34%9.50%
A-0710.03%10.28%9.50%
A-0710.08%10.30%9.50%
A-0710.02%10.30%9.50%
A-0710.08%10.29%9.50%
A-0710.08%10.28%9.50%
A-0710.03%10.23%9.50%
A-0710.03%10.20%9.50%
A-0710.03%10.20%9.50%
A-0710.03%10.20%9.50%
A-0710.03%10.20%9.50%
A-0710.05%10.28%9.50%
A-0710.05%10.26%9.50%
A-0710.05%10.28%9.50%
A-0710.04%10.25%9.50%
A-0710.06%10.28%9.50%
A-0710.06%10.28%9.50%
A-0710.09%10.33%9.50%
A-0710.06%10.26%9.50%
A-0710.16%10.30%9.75%
A-0710.15%10.30%9.75%
A-0710.15%10.33%9.75%
S-0710.15%10.33%9.75%
S-0710.15%10.35%9.75%
S-0710.15%10.35%9.75%
S-0710.14%10.30%9.75%
S-0710.14%10.30%9.75%
S-0710.15%10.30%9.75%
S-0710.15%10.30%9.75%
S-0710.12%10.30%9.75%
S-0710.12%10.30%9.75%
S-0710.13%10.32%9.75%
S-0710.12%10.35%9.75%
S-0710.12%10.35%9.75%
S-0710.12%10.30%9.75%
S-0710.10%10.30%9.75%
S-0710.10%10.30%9.75%
S-0710.12%10.33%9.75%
S-0710.13%10.33%9.75%
S-0710.13%10.33%9.75%
S-0710.16%10.32%9.75%
S-0710.11%10.33%9.75%
O-0710.16%10.37%9.75%
O-0710.13%10.38%9.75%
O-0710.14%10.35%9.75%
O-0710.14%10.33%9.75%
O-0710.15%10.33%9.75%
O-0710.10%10.35%9.75%
O-0710.13%10.32%9.75%
O-0710.11%10.33%9.75%
O-0710.15%10.35%9.75%
O-0710.14%10.33%9.75%
O-0710.22%10.41%9.75%
O-0710.15%10.35%9.75%
O-0710.15%10.37%9.75%
O-0710.19%10.34%9.75%
O-0710.17%10.38%9.75%
O-0710.18%10.38%9.75%
O-0710.18%10.34%9.75%
O-0710.12%10.33%9.75%
O-0710.17%10.39%9.75%
O-0710.16%10.36%9.75%
O-0710.17%10.38%9.75%
O-0710.09%10.30%9.75%
O-0710.12%10.33%9.50%
N-0710.09%10.30%9.50%
N-0710.08%10.28%9.50%
N-0710.08%10.26%9.50%
N-0710.09%10.27%9.50%
N-0710.04%10.25%9.50%
N-0710.06%10.27%9.50%
N-0710.04%10.29%9.50%
N-0710.08%10.27%9.50%
N-0710.09%10.28%9.50%
N-0710.08%10.27%9.50%
N-0710.08%10.29%9.50%
N-0710.04%10.28%9.50%
N-0710.03%10.28%9.50%
N-0710.13%10.31%9.50%
N-0710.09%10.29%9.50%
N-0710.10%10.31%9.50%
N-0710.09%10.28%9.50%
N-0710.14%10.30%9.50%
N-0710.13%10.28%9.50%
N-0710.08%10.31%9.50%
N-0710.08%10.28%9.50%
N-0710.08%10.26%9.50%
D-0710.07%10.31%9.50%
D-0710.12%10.29%9.50%
D-0710.11%10.32%9.50%
D-0710.13%10.33%9.50%
D-0710.14%10.33%9.50%
D-0710.15%10.33%9.50%
D-0710.13%10.33%9.50%
D-0710.13%10.32%9.50%
D-0710.14%10.33%9.50%
D-0710.11%10.30%9.50%
D-0710.13%10.31%9.50%
D-0710.16%10.34%9.50%
D-0710.14%10.31%9.50%
D-0710.11%10.29%9.50%
D-0710.11%10.31%9.50%
D-0710.14%10.33%9.50%
D-0710.12%10.28%9.50%
D-0710.11%10.29%9.50%
D-0710.09%10.27%9.50%
D-0710.24%10.35%10.00%
D-0710.23%10.32%10.00%
J-0810.32%10.42%10.00%
J-0810.30%10.44%10.00%
J-0810.28%10.42%10.00%
J-0810.24%10.39%10.00%
J-0810.25%10.41%10.00%
J-0810.29%10.42%10.00%
J-0810.39%10.51%10.00%
J-0810.43%10.52%10.00%
J-0810.37%10.49%10.00%
J-0810.39%10.53%10.00%
J-0810.38%10.53%10.00%
J-0810.47%10.59%10.00%
J-0810.42%10.55%10.00%
J-0810.45%10.55%10.00%
J-0810.35%10.50%10.00%
J-0810.43%10.55%10.00%
J-0810.43%10.56%10.00%
J-0810.37%10.55%10.00%
J-0810.40%10.56%10.00%
F-0810.47%10.63%10.00%
F-0810.41%10.54%10.00%
F-0810.50%10.63%10.00%
F-0810.54%10.68%10.75%
F-0810.86%10.99%10.75%
F-0810.94%11.08%10.75%
F-0811.09%11.23%10.75%
F-0811.14%11.31%10.75%
F-0811.19%11.39%10.75%
F-0811.11%11.38%10.75%
F-0811.33%11.53%10.75%
F-0811.48%11.66%10.75%
F-0811.38%11.56%10.75%
F-0811.47%11.64%10.75%
F-0811.51%11.67%10.75%
F-0811.50%11.64%10.75%
F-0811.53%11.66%10.75%
F-0811.59%11.69%10.75%
F-0811.64%11.78%10.75%
F-0812.14%12.29%11.50%
M-0812.20%12.39%11.50%
M-0812.21%12.40%11.50%
M-0812.28%12.39%11.50%
M-0812.30%12.39%11.50%
M-0812.30%12.38%11.50%
M-0812.34%12.48%11.50%
M-0812.33%12.41%11.50%
M-0812.33%12.42%11.50%
M-0812.36%12.46%11.50%
M-0815.16%15.30%14.50%
M-0815.20%15.32%14.50%
M-0815.19%15.33%14.50%
M-0815.20%15.36%14.50%
M-0815.21%15.34%14.50%
M-0815.19%15.32%14.50%
M-0815.22%15.40%14.50%
M-0815.32%15.50%14.50%
M-0815.31%15.50%14.50%
M-0815.32%15.49%14.50%
M-0815.31%15.44%14.50%
M-0815.35%15.48%14.50%
A-0815.31%15.44%14.50%
A-0815.35%15.49%14.50%
A-0815.34%15.46%14.50%
A-0815.33%15.44%14.50%
A-0815.29%15.44%14.50%
A-0815.29%15.45%14.50%
A-0815.26%15.41%14.50%
A-0815.29%15.42%14.50%
A-0815.24%15.41%14.50%
A-0815.29%15.44%14.50%
A-0815.29%15.43%14.50%
A-0815.27%15.39%14.50%
A-0815.26%15.41%14.50%
A-0815.28%15.42%14.50%
A-0815.32%15.46%14.50%
A-0815.33%15.47%14.50%
A-0815.31%15.44%14.50%
A-0815.66%15.44%14.50%
A-0815.31%15.44%14.50%
A-0816.06%15.44%15.25%
Ref rate & Belibor
1m Belibor
Referentna stopa
Referentna stopa i 1m Belibor
18%
17,5%
16,5%
15,5%
14%
13%
11,5%
10,5%
10%
9,5%
9,5%
9,75%
10%
10,75%
11,5%
14,5%
-
Growth of EURIBOR (2006 2007)Source: ReutersMONETARY POLICY and EFFECTS ON INTEREST RATES
Chart1
0.024070.02637
0.026470.02968
0.029080.03241
0.032420.035583
0.036340.03851
0.038650.04028
0.041190.043
0.044080.0475
0.044380.04768
0.043790.04731
1M EURIBOR
6M EURIBOR
Sheet1
Razvoj referentne stopa na RSDRazvoj EURIBOR-a
1M EURIBOR6M EURIBOR
01.09.200618.00%01.01.20062.41%2.64%0.02%0.03%
03.11.200617.50%31.03.20062.65%2.97%0.03%0.03%
15.11.200616.50%30.06.20062.91%3.24%0.03%0.03%
08.12.200615.50%30.09.20063.24%3.56%0.03%0.04%
27.12.200614.00%31.12.20063.63%3.85%0.04%0.04%
31.01.200713.00%31.03.20073.87%4.03%0.04%0.04%
02.03.200711.50%30.06.20074.12%4.30%0.04%0.04%
30.03.200710.50%30.09.20074.41%4.75%0.04%0.05%
04.05.200710.00%31.12.20074.44%4.77%0.04%0.05%
01.06.20079.50%31.03.20084.38%4.73%0.04%0.05%
28.08.20079.75%
Sheet1
Sheet2
1M EURIBOR
6M EURIBOR
Sheet3
-
3. MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW
-
REAL GDP GROWTH - in SERBIA (% yoy)
the economic activity continues to deliver strong numbers. GDP growth yoy in H1/07 was 7.6% with financial intermediation and trade contributing close to 20%.
due to the estimated decrease in the agricultural production (8%-10% yoy) forecast for the GDP growth in 2007 is revised to the level of 6.5%.
Chart1
4.980.1
4.21.8
2.5-3
8.47.1
6.20.8
5.44.7
74.7
GDP (%yoy)
Industrial output (%yoy)
Sheet1
Serbia
Population (in 1000): 7,450
Territory (1000 km): 88.420002001200220032004200520062007f2008f200120022003200420052006Jul-07Aug-07Forecast year end
GDP, EUR bn26.013.216.818.019.721.025.232.734.918.679.7210.6316.4419.16149.59.569.75
GDP, % yoy4.54.84.22.58.46.25.45.55.55.3
GDP per capita in EUR3,3921,7492,2372,4002,6342,8233,3814,3964,6872001200220032004200520062007f
Industrial Production, % yoy11.40.11.8-3.07.10.84.74.06.04.984.22.58.46.25.47
Employment, avg, % yoy-2.60.2-1.7-1.20.50.9n.a.n.a.n.a.0.11.8-3.07.10.84.74.7
Unemployment rate %, avg25.621.723.526.025.025.025.025.024.0
Average gross monthly wages % yoy90.7130.051.725.323.724.124.419.718.4
PPI avg, % yoy102.687.78.84.69.113.112.09.09.0
CPI avg, % yoy70.091.819.511.710.116.512.76.36.8
CPI eop, % yoy111.940.714.87.813.717.76.65.96.3812.1
base inflation20.54.46.111.014.55.92.43.04.3
General budget balance, % GDP-0.9-1.0-4.6-3.30.00.7-1.6-0.5-0.1
Public debt, % GDP209.0102.369.564.353.650.247.547.045.0
Trade Balance, EUR bn-1.9-2.8-3.7-4.1-5.7-4.5-5.0-5.2-5.3
Trade Balance, % GDP-7.4-21.5-22.3-22.8-28.8-21.3-19.8-16.0-15.2
C/A Balance, % GDP-0.6-2.4-7.8-7.0-12.4-11.9-13.0-13.0-12.5
Net Foreign Direct Investment, % GDP0.21.43.06.84.05.913.87.07.2
Off. FX-Reserves, EUR bn0.61.32.22.83.15.09.210.311.4
Foreign Debt, % GDP45.194.370.767.257.759.262.145.647.7
USD/RSD, year average16.666.464.258.058.566.967.054.959.2
EUR/RSD, year average15.359.560.865.372.883.284.473.678.2
USD/RSD, year end63.267.759.054.658.372.560.457.659.8
EUR/RSD, year end58.759.761.568.379.285.579.879.579.0
GDP
USA2.0
HUNGARY2.5
EU-133.1
SLOVENIA4.3
CROATIA4.6
CZECH5.0
POLAND5.7
ALBANIA6.0
BH6.0
BULGARIA6.0
ROMANIA6.0
SERBIA6.5
SLOVAKIA7.1
RUSSIA7.5
CPI
EU-131.9
SLOVAKIA2.2
BH2.3
POLAND2.7
SLOVENIA2.7
ALBANIA3
USA3
CZECH3.2
CROATIA3.2
BULGARIA4.5
ROMANIA4.5
HUNGARY5.2
SERBIA8
3.5692307692
BULGARIA-18
ROMANIA-14
BIH-13.9
SERBIA-13
CROATIA-7.8
ALBANIA-7.5
USA-6
HUNGARY-4.1
POLAND-4
CZECH-3.3
SLOVAKIA-3
SLOVENIA-2.3
EU-13-0.3
-7.4769230769
SLOVENIA95.5
CROATIA86.5
HUNGARY80.5
BULGARIA78.5
SERBIA45.6
POLAND44.6
ROMANIA27.2
BIH20.6
ALBANIA18.0
SLOVAKIA0.0
49.7
20032004200520062007f
10.912.411.91313
67.257.55962.145.6
Sheet1
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
consumer price in %yoy
NBS interest rates*
Base inflation
NBS interest rates
Base inflation(%yoy)
Consumer prices (%yoy)
Sheet2
4.980.1
4.21.8
2.5-3
8.47.1
6.20.8
5.44.7
74.7
&A
Page &P
GDP (%yoy)
Industrial output (%yoy)
Sheet3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
REAL GDP growth 2007f
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
CPI 2007 forecast
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
C/A BALANCE, % GDP, 2007f
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
FOREIGN DEBT,%GDP, 2007f
00
00
00
00
0
C/A BALANCE, %GDP (before grants)
0
0
0
0
0
FOREIGN DEBT, %GDP
40.718.6720.5
14.89.724.4
7.810.636.1
13.716.4411
17.719.1614.5
6.6145.9
5.99.52.4
6.39.563
89.754.3
consumer price in %yoy
NBS interest rates*
Base inflation
NBS interest rates
Base inflation(%yoy)
Consumer prices (%yoy)
-
REAL GDP GROWTH comparision to other countries
Chart5
2
2.5
3.1
4.3
4.6
5
5.7
6
6
6
6
6.5
7.1
7.5
REAL GDP growth 2007, forecast
Sheet1
Serbia
Population (in 1000): 7,450
Territory (1000 km): 88.420002001200220032004200520062007f2008f200120022003200420052006Mar-07Apr-07Forecast year end
GDP, EUR bn26.013.216.818.019.721.124.930.834.818.679.7210.6316.4419.161410.5109
GDP, % yoy4.54.84.22.58.46.25.45.56.55.3
GDP per capita in EUR3,3921,7492,2372,4002,6432,8333,3434,1304,6762001200220032004200520062007f
Industrial Production, % yoy11.40.11.8-3.07.10.84.74.06.04.984.22.58.46.25.46.5
Employment, avg, % yoy-2.60.2-1.7-1.20.50.9n.a.n.a.n.a.0.11.8-3.07.10.84.74.7
Unemployment rate %, avg25.621.723.526.025.025.025.025.024.0
Average gross monthly wages % yoy90.7130.051.725.523.724.221.312.911.4
PPI avg, % yoy102.687.78.84.69.113.112.09.09.0
CPI avg, % yoy70.091.819.511.710.116.512.67.07.0
CPI eop, % yoy111.940.714.87.813.717.76.65.64.66.712.1
base inflation20.54.46.111.014.55.94.03.44.7
General budget balance, % GDP-0.9-1.0-4.6-3.30.00.7-1.60.50.1
Public debt, % GDP209.0102.369.564.353.350.247.547.045.0
Trade Balance, EUR bn-1.9-2.8-3.7-4.1-5.7-4.5-4.6-4.5-4.7
Trade Balance, % GDP-7.4-21.5-22.3-22.8-28.7-21.2-18.5-14.7-13.6
C/A Balance, % GDP-0.6-2.4-7.8-7.3-12.4-11.9-13.0-8.5-7.5
Net Foreign Direct Investment, % GDP0.21.63.26.73.95.910.57.57.2
Off. FX-Reserves, EUR bn0.61.32.22.83.15.09.210.811.4
Foreign Debt, % GDP45.194.370.767.257.558.862.139.636.8
USD/RSD, year average16.666.464.258.058.366.766.958.658.3
EUR/RSD, year average15.359.560.865.372.682.984.378.077.5
USD/RSD, year end63.267.759.054.658.172.559.860.859.8
EUR/RSD, year end58.759.761.568.378.985.579.079.079.0
GDP
USA2.0
HUNGARY2.5
EU-133.1
SLOVENIA4.3
CROATIA4.6
CZECH5.0
POLAND5.7
ALBANIA6.0
BH6.0
BULGARIA6.0
ROMANIA6.0
SERBIA6.5
SLOVAKIA7.1
RUSSIA7.5
CPI
POLAND1.9
CZECH1.94
EU-132.16
ALBANIA2.35
CROATIA2.36
BH2.44
USA2.64
SLOVENIA4
SLOVAKIA4
BULGARIA5.1
HUNGARY5.2
ROMANIA10.94
RUSSIA11.74
SERBIA12.1
BIH-17
BULGARIA-14.5
SERBIA-13
ROMANIA-10.3
CROATIA-7.7
ALBANIA-7.5
USA-6.5
SLOVAKIA-6.2
HUNGARY-5.9
CZECH-2.3
SLOVENIA-1.9
POLAND-1.6
EU-13-0.2
ALBANIA18.0
BIH25.2
ROMANIA31.3
POLAND43.7
SLOVENIA58.1
SLOVAKIA60.0
SERBIA62.1
BULGARIA68.5
HUNGARY75.6
CROATIA88.4
2003200420052006
10.912.411.913
67.257.55962.1
Sheet1
40.718.6720.5
14.89.724.4
7.810.636.1
13.716.4411
17.719.1614.5
6.6145.9
5.610.54
4.6103.4
6.794.7
consumer price in %yoy
NBS interest rates*
Base inflation
NBS interest rates (%yoy)*
Base inflation(%yoy)
Consumer prices (%yoy)
Sheet2
4.980.1
4.21.8
2.5-3
8.47.1
6.20.8
5.44.7
6.54.7
&A
Page &P
GDP (%yoy)
Industrial output (%yoy)
Sheet3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
REAL GDP growth 2002-2006
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
CPI 2002-2006
-17
-14.5
-13
-10.3
-7.7
-7.5
-6.5
-6.2
-5.9
-2.3
-1.9
-1.6
-0.2
C/A BALANCE, % GDP, 2006
18
25.2
31.3
43.7270843297
58.1
60
62.1
68.5
75.6
88.4
FOREIGN DEBT,%GDP, 2006
00
00
00
00
