September 2010 Market Seminar
-
Upload
linda-twining -
Category
Real Estate
-
view
305 -
download
0
description
Transcript of September 2010 Market Seminar
![Page 1: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Weichert, Princeton Office September
2010 Market Update Seminar
Offers analysis of the Princeton & Greater
Princeton, NJ real estate markets & effective
strategies to buy and sell.
![Page 2: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Presented by:
Joshua D Wilton
Broker/ Sales Rep.
Weichert Realtors
Princeton, NJ
O 609-921-1900
www.weichert-princeton.com
www.facebook.com/weichertprinceton
![Page 3: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Agenda
1. The Market
2. Strategies for Buying
3. Strategies for Selling
![Page 4: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Agenda
1. The Real Estate Market
![Page 5: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
The good news just keeps on coming
![Page 6: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
The good news just keeps on coming
WASHINGTON (AP) -- New homes sold at the second-slowest pace on record in August, signaling that the housing market will remain a drag on the economy.Last month's new home sales were unchanged from a month earlier at a seasonally adjusted annual sales pace of 288,000, the Commerce Department said Friday. Sales were down by 29 percent from the same month a year earlier. – yahoo.com
![Page 7: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
www.otteau.coim
The OTTEAU Report – Market Commentary by Jeffrey Otteau
Recent Housing Slump Extends to 4 Straight Months Purchase contracts to buy a home in New Jersey fell by 25% in August compared to one year ago as the housing market continues to weaken in the aftermath of expired federal homebuyer tax credits. The August decline continues a string of 4 consecutive months of slumping home sales since the tax credits expired on April 30th. The slowdown in sales pace is also causing unsold-inventory to reverse direction and begin rising again. Looking ahead, the combination of fewer sales, rising inventory and the approaching fall and winter months will bring renewed downward pressure on home prices.
![Page 8: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
www.otteau.coim
Washington, September 23, 2010Existing-home sales rose in August following a big correction in July, according to the National Association of Realtors®.Existing-home sales1, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, increased 7.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.13 million in August from an upwardly revised 3.84 million in July, but remain 19.0 percent below the 5.10 million-unit pace in August 2009.
![Page 9: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
A More Balanced MarketA More Balanced Market
$350,000 & Below
Lower inventory
Price stability
3-7 months absorption rates
More Competitive environment
$1,500,000 Plus
Buyer’s Market
Excessive inventory levels
Price instability, reduction
20+ months absorption rates
Highly influenced by finance securitization
![Page 10: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
A long term outlook in NJ & Mercer County
Source: NAR, November 2008 Forecast
![Page 11: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
NJ Housing Permits
Source: CensusSource: Census
RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PERMITS AUTHORIZED 2000-2008
COUNTY 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Total
Atlantic County 1,625 1,685 2,020 2,285 2,075 2,002 1,893 1,136 794 15,515Bergen County 2,847 1,784 1,771 1,289 2,142 2,972 2,164 2,957 1,311 19,237Burlington County 2,775 2,184 2,359 1,805 1,516 1,475 2,784 1,037 976 16,911Camden County 796 757 1,160 1,934 1,413 1,706 1,183 1,191 895 11,035Cape May County 1,242 1,403 1,422 1,693 2,149 2,433 1,580 1,081 485 13,488Cumberland County 255 256 310 374 566 630 737 683 336 4,147Essex County 1,491 1,548 1,588 2,235 2,343 3,128 3,284 1,854 1,314 18,785Gloucester County 1,337 1,635 1,802 1,859 2,050 2,075 1,141 920 788 13,607Hudson County 1,338 1,116 1,534 2,116 3,808 4,498 4,275 3,081 3,229 24,995Hunterdon County 616 685 602 814 648 506 350 316 206 4,743Mercer County 1,283 1,355 1,428 1,188 1,641 1,296 847 700 625 10,363Middlesex County 2,460 1,884 1,999 2,306 2,622 3,206 2,567 1,597 1,020 19,661Monmouth County 2,912 2,194 2,372 2,756 2,628 2,584 2,820 2,060 1,526 21,852Morris County 2,684 1,577 1,914 1,555 1,427 2,503 1,670 1,052 795 15,177Ocean County 5,633 3,830 3,534 4,009 3,818 2,904 2,114 2,160 1,527 29,529Passaic County 457 631 689 829 763 647 850 760 432 6,058Salem County 161 180 170 307 334 297 298 148 198 2,093Somerset County 2,282 1,439 1,530 1,260 1,362 1,220 1,058 926 791 11,868Sussex County 719 808 679 587 612 668 603 360 302 5,338Union County 776 551 681 1,198 1,399 1,278 1,593 1,123 673 9,272Warren County 896 765 877 585 620 560 512 258 146 5,219 New Jersey 34,585 28,267 30,441 32,984 35,936 38,588 34,323 25,400 18,369 278,893
![Page 12: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
NJ Housing Permits
Source: CensusSource: Census
In thousand units
![Page 13: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Long Term Supply …
Source: NAR, November 2008 Forecast
Richardson Commercial
![Page 14: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Long Term Demand in Mercer County …
Source: NAR, November 2008 ForecastSource: https://edis.commerce.state.nc.us/docs/countyProfile/NJ/34021.pdf
(Mercer County) Population & Growth Population Annual Growth Rate2013 Total Population 383,677 0.6%2008 Total Population 371,963 0.7%2000 Total Population 350,761
![Page 15: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Long Term Demand in Mercer County …
Source: NAR, November 2008 ForecastSource: https://edis.commerce.state.nc.us/docs/countyProfile/NJ/34021.pdf
Estimated Pop. by Age Pop by Age, % Est.2013 Median Age 392008 Median Age 382000 Median Age 362008 Total Pop 0-19 98,816 26.6%2008 Total Pop 20-29 49,307 13.3%2008 Total Pop 30-39 49,497 13.3%2008 Total Pop 40-49 58,288 15.7%2008 Total Pop 50-59 51,605 13.9%2008 Total Pop 60+ 64,450 17.3%
![Page 16: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
• Buffett Says U.S. Housing Will Recover by 2011 on Lower Supply
• March 1 (Bloomberg) -- Billionaire Warren Buffett said the U.S. residential real estate slump will end by about 2011, predicting that’s how long it will take demand for homes to catch up with the supply.
• “Within a year or so, residential housing problems should largely be behind us,” Buffett wrote Feb. 27 in his annual letter to shareholders of his Berkshire Hathaway Inc.”
‘Yoda has spoken…’
![Page 17: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
1. Real Estate is Local
Top Five Rules for Understanding the Real
Estate Market:
2. Real Estate is Local
3. Real Estate is Local
4. Real Estate is Local5. Real Estate is Local
![Page 18: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
1. You Understand the Local Market That You are Buying into or Selling out
of…
![Page 19: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Economics 101:As supply goes up,
prices go _____?
![Page 20: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Hopewell Inventory Trends: All Homes
![Page 21: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Hopewell Inventory Trends: Condos & Townhouses
![Page 22: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Hopewell Inventory Trends: Single Family Homes
![Page 23: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Hopewell Inventory Trends: 55+
![Page 24: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
9/20/10Towns Active
ListingsPending in Last 30 Days
Absorption Rate in Months
New Listings in 30 Days
Net Gain (Loss) to Market
Listings Reduced in 30 Days
% of Invent. Reduced
Expired Listings
W/drawn Listings
Closed Listings
Hopewell Twp.All Styles
178 17 10 31 14 42 24% 6 4 20
Hopewell Twp. Condo/ T.Houses
12 4 3 3 1 3 50% 0 1 2
Hopewell Twp.:55+
12 1 12 1 0 -- -- 0 0 2
Hopewell Twp Single Family 154 12 13 27 15 36 23% 6 3 16
![Page 25: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Princeton Boro Inventory Trend
![Page 26: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Lawrence Inventory Trend
![Page 27: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Princeton Twp. Inventory Trend
![Page 28: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
West Windsor Inventory Trend
![Page 29: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Cranbury Inventory Trend
![Page 30: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Cranbury Inventory Trend
![Page 31: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Plainsboro Inventory Trend
![Page 32: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
East Windsor Inventory Trend
![Page 33: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
East Windsor Inventory Trend
![Page 34: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Market Absorption Scale(Absorption Rate in Months)
5-6 months absorption rate indicates a normal market.
![Page 35: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
Absorption Rate by Price Range
Weichert has been studying market conditions for more than 3 decades and has found a direct correlation between market
absorption and property values.
As absorption rates increase beyond a normal market level of 5-6 months, property
values depreciate annually.
![Page 36: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
Sample Market Absorption RateSample Market Absorption Rate
107 current active listings
4 reported sales in last 30 days
=
24.3months absorptionrate
Anytown., NJ
5-6 Months Market Absorption Rate indicates a normal market.
![Page 37: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
2007 thru 2009 Market Activity Comparison: Week of 8/3/09
2006
Active
Inventory
2006 Pendnig
Sales
(previous 30 days)
2007
Active
Inventory
2007
Pending
Sales
(prev. 30 days)
2008
Active
Inventory
2008
Pending Sales
(prev. 30 days)
2009
Active Inventory
2009
Pending Sales
(prev. 30 days)
2010
Active Inventory
2010 Pending
Sales (previous 30 days)
Pton. Boro 56 0 59 3 51 2 43 7 54 5Pton Twp 147 7 120 4 93 4 122 14 130 4
W. Windsor 195 9 159 25 113 12 100 26 123 11Lawrence 212 11 238 12 200 12 2-4 27 240 13
East Windsor 210 21 218 8 210 17 172 34 228 9
Ewing 201 21 276 12 262 11 246 27 307 14Hamilton 535 39 530 39 611 45 530 86 675 89Hopewell
Twp. 198 12 194 4 128 10 164 26 178 17Cranbury 18 0 31 0 32 0 30 1 19 6Plainsboro 152 8 118 21 73 12 70 10 79 5
South Brunswick 314 17 208 16 206 17 196 21 248 8Montgom. 177 9 145 16 129 12 138 24 162 10
Cum. 2415 154 2296 161 2108 142 2015 303 2350 180
![Page 38: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
9/20/10Towns Active
ListingsPending in Last 30 Days
Absorption Rate in Months
New Listings in 30 Days
Net Gain (Loss) to Market
Listings Reduced in 30 Days
% of Invent. Reduced
Expired Listings
W/drawn Listings
Closed Listings
Princeton Boro: All Styles 54 5 10.8 8 3 10 18.5% 3 6 3
Pton -Boro Condo/ Thouses 24 2 12 2 0 7 29.2% 0 4 2
Pton-BoroSingle Family 30 3 10 6 3 3 10% 3 2 1
Pton Twp: All Styles 130 4 32.5 19 15 19 14.6% 2 7 19
Pton Twp: Condo/ Thouses 17 0 17 7 7 4 23.5% 0 1 5
Pton Twp:Single Family 113 4 28.3 12 8 15 13.3% 1 6 14
![Page 39: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
9/20/10Towns Active
ListingsPending in Last 30 Days
Absorption Rate in Months
New Listings in 30 Days
Net Gain (Loss) to Market
Li1stings Reduced in 30 Days
% of Invent. Reduced
Expired Listings
W/drawn Listings
Closed Listings
West Windsor: All Styles
128 11 11.6 26 15 36 28.1%
West Windsor Condo/ T.Houses
28 4 7 11 7 7 25.9%
West Windsor55+
8 0 99 2 2 -- --
West Windsor Single Family
92 7 13.1 13 6 29 31.5%
Lawrence: All Styles
240 13 18.5 31 18 67 27.9%
Lawrence:Condo/THouses
84 1 84 12 11 24 28.6%
Lawrence: 55+
18 3 6 3 0 -- --
Lawrence: Single Family
138 9 15.3 16 7 43 31.1%
![Page 40: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
9/20/10Towns Active
ListingsPending in Last 30 Days
Absorption Rate in Months
New Listings in 30 Days
Net Gain (Loss) to Market
Listings Reduced in 30 Days
% of Invent. Reduced
Expired Listings
W/drawn Listings
Closed Listings
PlainsboroAll Styles
79 5 15.8 21 16 24 30% 9 3 20
PlainsboroCondo/ THouses
42 1 42 14 13 12 28% 4 3 9
Plainsboro55+
13 0 99 1 1 0 0 2 0 2
PlainsboroSingle Family
24 4 6 6 2 12 50% 3 0 9
Cranbury:All Styles
19 6 3.1 5 (1) 5 26% 2 0 5
Cranbury:55+
2 1 2 1 0 0 0 1 0 0
Cranbury: Single Family
17 5 3.4 4 (1) 0 0 1 0 5
![Page 41: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
9/20/10Towns Active
ListingsPending in Last 30 Days
Absorption Rate in Months
New Listings in 30 Days
Net Gain (Loss) to Market
Listings Reduced in 30 Days
% of Invent. Reduced
Expired Listings
W/drawn Listings
Closed Listings
Ewing: All Styles
307 14 21.9 37 23 62 20.2%
Ewing : Condo/ T.Houses
44 1 44 3 2 8 18.2%
Ewing 55+:
5 1 5 0 -1 -- --
Ewing:Single Family
258 12 21.5 34 22 54 20.9%
East Windsor:All Styles
228 9 25.3 38 29 56 24.6%
East Windsor:Condo/ THouses
133 5 26.6 27 22 26 19.5%
East Windsor:55+
22 0 99 2 2 -- --
East Windsor: Single Family
73 4 18.3 9 5 30 40.1%
![Page 42: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
9/20/10Towns Active
ListingsPending in Last 30 Days
Absorption Rate in Months
New Listings in 30 Days
Net Gain (Loss) to Market
Listings Reduced in 30 Days
% of Invent. Reduced
Expired Listings
W/drawn Listings
Closed Listings
Hopewell Twp.All Styles
178 17 10 31 14 42 24% 6 4 20
Hopewell Twp. Condo/ T.Houses
12 4 3 3 1 3 50% 0 1 2
Hopewell Twp.:55+
12 1 12 1 0 -- -- 0 0 2
Hopewell Twp Single Family 154 12 13 27 15 36 23% 6 3 16
Hamilton: All Styles 675 89 8 138 49 174 26% 42 14 35
Hamilton:Condo/ THouses 113 18 6 18 0 38 34% 13 3 5
Hamilton:Single Family 51 5 10 15 10 -- -- 1 0 2
Hamilton: 55+511 66 8 10 39 136 27% 28 11 28
![Page 43: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
9/20/10Towns Active
ListingsPending in Last 30 Days
Absorption Rate in Months
New Listings in 30 Days
Net Gain (Loss) to Market
Listings Reduced in 30 Days
% of Invent. Reduced
Expired Listings
W/drawn Listings
Closed Listings
RobbinsvilleAll Styles 146 13 11 22 9 54 37% 10 5 14
RobbinsvilleCondo/ T.Houses
64 9 7 9 0 22 34% 6 2 8
Single Family82 4 20.5 13 9 32 39% 4 3 6
Hightstown Boro: All Styles
69 5 14 5 0 16 23% 6 7 3
Pennington17 1 17 6 5 7 41% 4 5 4
Hopewell Boro20 0 99 5 5 5 25% 1 1 1
![Page 44: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
9/20/10Towns Active
ListingsPending in Last 30 Days
Absorption Rate in Months
New Listings in 30 Days
Net Gain (Loss) to Market
Listings Reduced in 30 Days
% of Invent. Reduced
Expired Listings
W/drawn Listings
Closed Listings
South
Brunswick
All Styles
245 8 30 38 30 32 13% 18 5 30
South BrunswickCondo/ T.Houses
75 3 25 19 16 13 17% 11 3 14
South Brunswick
55+
29 1 29 1 0 1 3% 0 0 3
South Brunswick
Single Family
141 4 35 22 18 18 13% 7 2 13
Monroe:
All Styles 483 19 25 90 71 77 16% 51 7 43
Monroe:
55+ 297 15 20 58 43 56 19% 34 2 34
Monroe:
Single Family 186 4 47 32 26 21 12% 17 5 9
![Page 45: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
9/20/10Towns Active
ListingsPending in Last 30 Days
Absorption Rate in Months
New Listings in 30 Days
Net Gain (Loss) to Market
Listings Reduced in 30 Days
% of Invent. Reduced
Expired Listings
W/drawn Listings
Closed Listings
Montgomery
All Styles 162 10 16.2 29 0 44 27% 10 6 13
Montgomery
Condo/Twnhms 20 1 20 5 -2 10 50% 1 3 3
Single Family142 9 16 24 2 34 24% 9 3 10
Hillsborough
All Styles 272 16 17 47 -13 52 19% 20 14 26
Hillsborough
Condo/Twnhms 72 4 18 10 -7 18 25% 4 8 5
Hillsborough
Single Family 200 12 17 37 -6 34 17% 16 6 21
![Page 46: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
46Market Scale for Supply & Market Scale for Supply & DemandDemand
High Supply/Low Demand Low Supply/High DemandNormal
Ma
rke
t A
bso
rpti
on
in M
on
ths 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
No
rma
l
Weichert has been studying market conditions for more than 3 decades and has found a direct correlation between market absorption and property values.
As absorption rates increase beyond a normal market level of 5-6 months, property values depreciate annually.
Note: This Market Scale is valid only for absorption rates between 1 and 12 months.
![Page 47: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
Understand the Market That You are Buying/ Selling in…
I want to live/ sell in West Windsor…..
![Page 48: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
Sample Market Absorption RateSample Market Absorption Rate
107 current active listings
4 reported sales in last 30 days
=
24.3months absorptionrate
Anytown., NJ
5-6 Months Market Absorption Rate indicates a normal market.
![Page 49: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
West Windsor, Single FamiliesWest Windsor, Single Families
128 current active listings
11 reported sales in last 30 days
=
11months absorptionrate
West Windsor, NJ
5-6 Months Market Absorption Rate indicates a normal market.
![Page 50: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
West Windsor Colonials By Price
5-6 months absorption rate indicates a normal market.
Price Actives Pendings Ab. Rate
$300-$500 14 1 14
500-$650 20 9 2.2
$650-$799 19 4 3
$800-$999 13 3 4.3
$1 million + 5 0 99*
![Page 51: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
West Windsor Colonials By Price
5-6 months absorption rate indicates a normal market.
Price Actives Pendings Ab. Rate
$300-$500 14 1 14
500-$650 20 9 2.2
$650-$799 19 4 3
$800-$999 13 3 4.3
$1 million + 5 0 99*
![Page 52: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
‘I don’t want to buy a house and then watch it drop in value!’
![Page 53: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
Purchase Price $329,000 Loan Amount $317400
Down Payment $11,515 Monthly P&I $1802
Appreciation/Depreciation Home Value1st Year -3% $319,1302nd Year 0% $319,1303rd Year 1% $322,3214th Year 3% $331,9905th Year 5% $348,5905 Year Appreciation/Depreciation $19,500
Tax Benefit Vs Paying Rent @
$1600/mo1st Year $5,000 $19,2002nd Year $5,000 $19,2003rd Year $5,000 $19,2004th Year $5,000 $19,2005th Year $5,000 $19,2005 Year Total $25,000 $96,000
Total Gain $44,200Create Equity
v Pay Rent
![Page 54: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/54.jpg)
Purchase Price $329,000 Loan Amount $317400
Down Payment $11,515 Monthly P&I $1802
Appreciation/Depreciation Home Value1st Year 5 $319,1302nd Year 3% $319,1303rd Year 2% $322,3214th Year 2% $331,9905th Year 2% $348,5905 Year Appreciation/Depreciation $48,590
Tax Benefit Vs Paying Rent @
$1600/mo1st Year $5,000 $19,2002nd Year $5,000 $19,2003rd Year $5,000 $19,2004th Year $5,000 $19,2005th Year $5,000 $19,2005 Year Total $25,000 $96,000
Total Gain $73,529Create Equity
v Pay Rent
![Page 55: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/55.jpg)
+ The Amortization Schedule on a Loan
Yearly Schedule of Balances and PaymentsYear
Beginning Balance
Payment Principal InterestCumulative
PrincipalCumulative Interest
Ending Balance
2010 $315,646.96 $21,625.92 $4,374.96 $17,250.96 $6,128.00 $24,508.72$311,272.0
0
2011 $311,272.00 $21,625.92 $4,621.30 $17,004.62 $10,749.30 $41,513.34$306,650.7
0
2012 $306,650.70 $21,625.92 $4,881.98 $16,743.94 $15,631.28 $58,257.28$301,768.7
2
2013 $301,768.72 $21,625.92 $5,157.36 $16,468.56 $20,788.64 $74,725.84$296,611.3
6
2014 $296,611.36 $21,625.92 $5,448.28 $16,177.64 $26,236.92 $90,903.48$291,163.0
8
![Page 56: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/56.jpg)
Appreciation (conservitive): $19,500
+Amortization: $20,109
+ Tax Benefit of Home Ownership
$25,000+
Low Interest Rates: $5000___________________
total 5 year gain = $69,609
![Page 57: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/57.jpg)
1 Source: Freddie Mac 2 As reported in the Washington Post 12/26/09 3 As reported on CNBC 12/22/09
• “It's hard to imagine that the rates can go much lower than they are.” ~ Amy Crews Cutts, deputy chief economist at Freddie Mac2
Average annual rate (30-year fixed-rate mortgage)1
How Long Will Interest RatesRemain Low?
![Page 58: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/58.jpg)
Market Absorption Scale(Absorption Rate in Months)
5-6 months absorption rate indicates a normal market.
![Page 59: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/59.jpg)
Buying/ Selling Strategies
Source: MLS
![Page 60: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/60.jpg)
1. ‘I am going to time the Market and buy/ sell at the time when
inventory & buyer count is in my favor…’
Source: MLS
![Page 61: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/61.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1/7/2007 4/1/2007 6/24/2007 9/23/2007 12/16/2007
Gross # of Guests 2009
Weekly Guests Thru the Weichert Princeton Open Houses, 2009
![Page 62: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/62.jpg)
Source: MLS
Inventory Levels, Princeton Twp. New Jersey, 2009
![Page 63: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/63.jpg)
3. ‘I am going to wait until the price comes down further and then make an offer/ if I lower my
price I will get lower bids…
Source: MLS
![Page 64: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/64.jpg)
Source: trend mls
Relationship of Price Reductions to ‘Pending Sales’
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Princeton Pendings
Princeton Price Reductions
![Page 65: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/65.jpg)
3/16/10Towns Active
ListingsPending in Last 30 Days
Absorption Rate in Months
New Listings in 30 Days
Net Gain (Loss) to Market
Listings Reduced in 30 Days
% of Invent. Reduced
Expired Listings
W/drawn Listings
Closed Listings
PlainsboroAll Styles
74 18 4.1 36 17 9 12.2% 0 1 7
PlainsboroCondo/ THouses
36 7 5.1 22 15 2 5.6% 0 0 5
Plainsboro55+
17 3 5.7 3 0 - - 0 0 1
PlainsboroSingle Family
21 8 2.6 11 2 7 3.3% 0 1 1
Cranbury:All Styles
24 1 24 5 2 5 20.8% 1 1 2
Cranbury:55+
1 0 99 0 -1 - - 0 1 0
Cranbury: Single Family
23 1 24 5 3 5 21.7% 1 0 2
![Page 66: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/66.jpg)
3/16/10Towns Active
ListingsPending in Last 30 Days
Absorption Rate in Months
New Listings in 30 Days
Net Gain (Loss) to Market
Listings Reduced in 30 Days
% of Invent. Reduced
Expired Listings
W/drawn Listings
Closed Listings
Princeton Boro: All Styles 31 1 31 10 6 4 12.9 2 1 3
Pton -Boro Condo/ Thouses 10 1 10 4 1 1 10 2 0 1
Pton-BoroSingle Family 21 0 99 6 5 3 14.3 0 1 2
Pton Twp: All Styles 102 8 12.8 30 21 10 9.8 1 0 6
Pton Twp: Condo/ Thouses 13 2 6.5 4 2 2 15.4 0 0 3
Pton Twp:Single Family 89 6 14.8 26 19 8 9 1 0 3
![Page 67: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/67.jpg)
Source: trend mls
Relationship of Price Reductions to ‘Pending Sales’
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Princeton Pendings
Princeton Price Reductions
![Page 68: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/68.jpg)
Source: trend mls
Relationship of Price Reductions to ‘Pending Sales’
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
West Windsor Pendings
West Windsor Reductions
![Page 69: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/69.jpg)
Source: trend mls
Relationship of Price Reductions to ‘Pending Sales’
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Lawrence Pendings
Lawrence Reductions
![Page 70: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/70.jpg)
Jeff Smith,
Loan Officer
Weichert Financial Services
Financial Benefits and Financial Benefits and Process of Home-Process of Home-
Ownership.Ownership.
![Page 71: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/71.jpg)
Monthly Payment Savings
• Interest rates have dipped to 50-year lows, increasing buyer affordability.
One Year Ago Today
Mortgage Amount $300,000 $300,000
Monthly Payment (P&I) $1,704 $1,476
Savings $228/month
Monthly payments are based on interest rates of 5.5% on 9/13/2009 vs. 4.25% on 9/13/2010.
![Page 72: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/72.jpg)
The interest rate assumption is based on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage.
Today’s rate:
$200,000
5% down payment
$1,019.96
After increase:
$200,000
5% downpayment
$1,139.15$119 difference per month –or nearly $43,000 over 30
years.
Assuming a 1% increase in interest rates.
![Page 73: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/73.jpg)
• The first step is to meet with, me, Jeff
Smith!
Establish Establish YourYour Buying Buying PowerPower
![Page 74: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/74.jpg)
The Impact of Pricing on the Salability of Your Home..…
![Page 75: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/75.jpg)
‘Great speech but does it really work?
![Page 76: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/76.jpg)
We know the best way to evaluate pricing
Does this really work?
![Page 77: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/77.jpg)
We know the best way to evaluate pricing
Does this really work?
![Page 78: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/78.jpg)
22. . The Effect of The Effect of StagingStaging on the on the
Value of a HomeValue of a Home..
![Page 79: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/79.jpg)
The process of preparing homes for sale regardless of
Price, Location, or Condition
To achieve the maximum sales price in the minimum marketing time.
The GOAL is to appeal to the broadest range of BUYERS.
![Page 80: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/80.jpg)
The Way You Live In Your Home…
![Page 81: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/81.jpg)
… And The Way We Market And Sell A House Are Two Different
Things.
![Page 82: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/82.jpg)
“The Investment in Home Staging
is Always Less than Your First Price Reduction!”
![Page 83: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/83.jpg)
Buyers Only Know What They See …
![Page 84: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/84.jpg)
… Not The Way It Is Going To Be.
![Page 85: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/85.jpg)
Based on a StagedHomes.com survey of over 400 homes across Canada & the Continental US prepared for sale by an
Accredited Staging Professional (ASP™) from June 2007 through November 2007.
![Page 86: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/86.jpg)
3.3.The Effect of ‘The Effect of ‘Pre-Pre-Inspection’Inspection’ on the Sale of on the Sale of
YourYour Home. Home.
![Page 87: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/87.jpg)
The average increase in sales price of an ASP Staged vs. non-Staged home is
6.9%.That is an additional
$31,050 on a $450,000 sale.
![Page 88: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/88.jpg)
The average marketing
time of an ASP Staged vs. non-Staged home is 80%
less.
![Page 89: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/89.jpg)
What is
‘Pre-Inspection?’
![Page 90: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/90.jpg)
Home Inspection
WHAT DOES PRE-INSPECTION INCLUDE? The standard home inspector's report will review the condition of the home's heating system, central air
conditioning system (temperature permitting), interior plumbing and electrical systems; the roof, attic, and visible insulation; walls, ceilings, floors, windows and doors; the
foundation, basement, and visible structure.
![Page 91: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/91.jpg)
PRE-LISTING Home Inspection
DOESN’T THE BUYER DO THE HOME INSPECTION?
![Page 92: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/92.jpg)
All Negotiations, including real estate, are all about negotiation and control.
Who is in control?
Right Price
Right Staging
All Repairs are done in advance.
Offer a Home Warranty to the buyer..
![Page 93: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/93.jpg)
PRE-LISTING Home Inspection
Data on where most sales fall apart: attorney review, home inspection.
Fall Thru Percentage 2007: 26%Fall Thru Percentage 2010: 6%.
![Page 94: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/94.jpg)
Home Improvements
I am moving out of the house, I do not want spend too much money to move.
Or
I just spent $$ on a new kitchen, I want $$$$$$ back on that investment when I move.
![Page 95: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/95.jpg)
![Page 96: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/96.jpg)
![Page 97: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/97.jpg)
Reality of today’s market is that you will see the return on your investment not in an inflated sales price but in retaining the highest percentage of your list price and staying on the market the fewest # of days.
Please consult with your Realtor & staging professional as to which improvements you should finish to make your home the most salable.
![Page 98: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/98.jpg)
Weichert Family of Companies
What will a real estate company
do for me?
![Page 99: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/99.jpg)
Making Your Purchase as Making Your Purchase as Smooth as PossibleSmooth as Possible
Buying a home involves the careful coordination of many people.
Choosing a real estate team you can count on will make the process smoother
and easier.
![Page 100: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/100.jpg)
• Time is money.
The Weichert The Weichert DifferenceDifference
• Stress kills.
• Time is life.
![Page 101: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/101.jpg)
Educate You.
Negotiate on your behalf.
Offer advice on due diligence.
Manage all aspects of the transaction
process.
What Will a Weichert Agent Do for Me?
![Page 102: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/102.jpg)
We’re Here to HelpWe’re Here to Help
The Entire Process is reviewed by Legal Council.
![Page 103: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/103.jpg)
Become a Fan!
www.facbook.com/weichertprinceton
www.weichert-princeton.com
We post a ton of great market data on these two sites.
![Page 104: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/104.jpg)
Resource and website list:
Realtor.org
http://www.facebook.com/pages/
NAR-Research/73888294183#
Remodeling.com
![Page 105: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/105.jpg)
Resource and Website Resource and Website ListList
http://www.realtor.org/research/research/housinginx
Remodeling.com
www.Otteau.com
www.Pre-listing-inspection.com
![Page 106: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/106.jpg)
Resource and Website Resource and Website List:List:
www.Housemaster.com
www.Stagingshoppingcenter.com
![Page 107: September 2010 Market Seminar](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062513/554e0e33b4c90597278b5715/html5/thumbnails/107.jpg)
Resource and website Resource and website list:list:
www.Stagedhomes.com
www.realestatestagingassociation.com
www.realtytrac.com