August Market Update Seminar

131
Weichert, Princeton Office August Market Update Seminar Offers analysis of the Princeton & Greater Princeton, NJ real estate markets & effective strategies to

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The presentation from the Weichert Princeton office August Market Seminar.

Transcript of August Market Update Seminar

Page 1: August Market Update Seminar

Weichert, Princeton Office August Market

Update Seminar

Offers analysis of the Princeton & Greater

Princeton, NJ real estate markets & effective

strategies to buy and sell.

Page 2: August Market Update Seminar

Presented by:

Joshua D Wilton

Broker/ Sales Rep.

Weichert Realtors

Princeton, NJ

O 609-921-1900

Page 3: August Market Update Seminar

Agenda

1. The Market

2. Strategies for Buying

3. Strategies for Selling

Page 4: August Market Update Seminar

Agenda

1. The Market:

- The National Economy…

Page 5: August Market Update Seminar

Chrysler in Bankruptcy…GM Next…Over 1000 Chrysler Dealers

to be shuttered…

Source: Autodata

Page 6: August Market Update Seminar

Consumer Sentiment Not This Low Since Early 1980s

Source: University of Michigan

1966Q1 = 100

• U.S. Economy: Consumer Sentiment Falls on Job Losses

• By Shobhana Chandra and Bob Willis

• July 10 (Bloomberg) -- Sentiment among U.S. consumers, whose spending is critical to an economic recovery, dropped in July after four months of gains as unemployment approached 10 percent.

• The Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment fell by more than forecast to 64.6 from 70.8 in the prior month. A separate report from the

Commerce Department showed the trade deficit unexpectedly narrowed in May to the lowest level in almost a decade.

• Unemployment is rising even as economists predict an end to the recession in coming months. Consumers in the survey said they are less likely to buy cars or appliances, suggesting that the recovery may be weaker than anticipated.

www.bloomberg.com

Page 7: August Market Update Seminar

http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet?data_tool=latest_numbers&series_id=LASST34000003

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                                          Thursday, January 1, 2009 

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Page 10: August Market Update Seminar

2009: Foreclosure ForecastWithin Company-Owned Footprint

Over 1800 Foreclosure in Mercer County.

Less than 72 foreclosures in 08540 (3 townships).

Less than 27 foreclosures in West Windsor.

Majority of the 1800 are in Trenton.- foreclosurepoint.com

Page 11: August Market Update Seminar

Home Price Trends in Down Markets: Big Declines in Subprime Neighborhoods

Yellow – Conforming Loans Only (OFHEO)Orange – All Loans including subprime and jumbo loans (Case-Shiller)Red – Subprime Loans (NAR estimate based on subprime weight)

Page 12: August Market Update Seminar

Where is the bottom of the market?“The effects (of foreclosures) are continued declining

prices….probably another 5-8%* to the bottom.  As for the effect of foreclosure pricing, all of these problems are

causing home prices to go lower than is necessary from an affordability perspective.

  That’s because everyone is now worrying about job security. 

As a result, the recovery will take place at a faster pace once it gets started.”

– Jeff Otteau (otteau.com- January 2009)

Page 13: August Market Update Seminar

What about the Real Estate Markets….?

Page 14: August Market Update Seminar

Pending Home Sales Record Fourth Straight Monthly GainWashington, July 01, 2009 Pending home sales show a sustained uptrend, rising for four consecutive months with very favorable housing affordability and a first-time buyer tax credit boosting activity, according to the National Association of Realtors®.The Pending Home Sales Index,1 a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in May, increased 0.1 percent to 90.7 from an upwardly revised reading of 90.6 in April, and is 6.7 percent higher than May 2008 when it was 85.0. The last time there were four consecutive monthly gains was in October 2004.

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August 21, 2009By Lawrence Yun, Chief EconomistThe housing market has decisively turned for the better.  Existing home sales (single-family plus condos and coops) increased 7.2 percent from the prior month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.24 million units from an unrevised 4.89 million unit pace in June.  Compared to the same month one year ago, existing home sales were higher by 5.0 percent.The latest increase of over 7 percent is the highest monthly increase in at least 10 years.  The latest positive gain from one year ago (rather than a decline) was the first occurrence since November 2005 (nearly four years ago).

Page 16: August Market Update Seminar

August 21, 2009By Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist The year-over-year increase of 5 percent from one-year ago is the highest year-over-year rise since September of 2005.  The home sales pace of 5.24 million was the highest since August 2007.Regionally, home sales rose in three of four major regions.  From June to July seasonally adjusted sales were:  In the Northeast, existing home sales increased 13.4 percentIn the Midwest, sales increased 10.9 percent  In the South, sales increased 7.1 percent  In the West, sales decreased 1.7 percentCompared to a year ago, sales are higher in all four regions.  The current housing market recovery is broad based, not isolated in few cities.  

Page 17: August Market Update Seminar

August 21, 2009Strong Gain in Existing-Home Sales Maintains UptrendWashington, August 21, 2009 For the first time in five years, existing-home sales have increased for four months in a row, according to the National Association of Realtors®.Existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – rose 7.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate1 of 5.24 million units in July from a level of 4.89 million in June, and are 5.0 percent above the 4.99 million-unit pace in July 2008.  The last time sales rose for four consecutive months was in June 2004, and the last time sales were higher than a year earlier was November 2005. 

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““Everything I am Everything I am seeing tells me we seeing tells me we have arrived at the have arrived at the

bottom of the market, bottom of the market, specifically in the specifically in the

popular and popular and affordable price affordable price

ranges.”ranges.”J. Weichert

6/2009

Page 19: August Market Update Seminar

49.8%49.8%Increase in SalesIncrease in Sales

$300,000 & Under$300,000 & Under

Recovery Has BegunRecovery Has Begun

May YTD reported internal revenue units

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Sales by Price RangeSales by Price Range

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Source: NAR

Positive Indicators Across the Board….1st time in 4 years….!

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The Otteau Report comes from an objective third-party appraisal company that provides regular market updates to developers and consumers.

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Where is the bottom of the market?

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Where is the bottom of the market?

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Less New Construction in Mercer

Source: NAR, November 2008 Forecast

Richardson Commercial

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The Local Inventory and Sales Patterns:

Source: NAR, November 2008 Forecast

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07 Inventory Ct

07 Pending sales

07 Abs. Rate

07 Active w/ Contracts

08 Inventory Ct

08 Pending Sates

08 Abs. Rate

08 Active w/ Contracts

09 Inventory Ct

09 Pendings 09 Abs. Rate

Pton Boro 65 2 32.5 0 50 3 16.7 8 44 8 5.5

Pton Twp 127 14 9.1 1 111 8 13.9 14 138 20 6.9

W. Windsor 165 27 6.1 2 124 19 6.5 27 107 36 2.9

Lawrence 237 22 10.8 0 199 16 12.4 40 186 37 5.0

East Windsor 223 29 7.7 0 217 11 19.7 26 180 30 6.0

Ewing 270 29 9.3 3 256 14 18.3 31 232 36 6.4

Hamilton 596 57 10.5 2 627 50 12.5 20 572 95 6.0

Hopewell Twp. 199 11 18.1 0 144 10 14.4 23 176 18 10.0

Cranbury 27 2 13.5 0 27 3 9.0 0 31 2 15.5

Plainsboro 137 21 6.5 0 98 9 9.8 5 76 18 4.2

South Brunswick 0 0 0.0 0 202 22 9.2 16 211 20 10.0

Montgom. 149 28 5.3 54 135 26 5.2 37 155 34 4.6

Cum. 2195 242 9.1 62 2190 191 11.5 247 2108 354 6.0

Inventory is a combined 20% lower in the above communities than in 2007.

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Lawrence Active Inventory

0

50

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150

200

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300

Lawrence Actives

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Princeton Twp. Inventory

020406080

100120140160180

Twp. Inventory

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Princeton Boro. Active Inventory

01020304050607080

Boro Activities

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West Windsor Active Inventory

0

50

100

150

200

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West Windsor Actives

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Plainsboro Active Inventory

020406080

100120140160180

Plainsboro Actives

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East Windsor Active Inventory

0

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4/1

1/2

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/11

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/11

/20

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/11

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1/2

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1/2

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9

East Windsor Actives

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•With few exceptions (Princeton Township, Hamilton and Ewing, Inventory in Mercer County is down compared to the

last several years.

•Absorption Rates in the majority of towns are lower, suggesting an improved sales performance, specifically in the

lower price ranges in each town and product line (is single family, townhouses, etc.

•The most expensive homes in each Community will have the slowest pace of sales and continued depreciation.

• The 55+ Active Adult market will continue to struggle.

Page 35: August Market Update Seminar

While continuing economic challenges lie ahead, it’s instructive to remember that the housing market tends to lead

the economy in-to and out-of recession. … Building on last month’s column as to what a housing recovery will look like – more homes selling and fewer to choose from –

the New Jersey market continued in the direction of stabilization last month. In May, Contract-Sales continued to

rise by equaling the pace from one year ago and appear poised to exceed last year’s sales pace soon. Such a break-through above

the prior year’s pace has occurred only 3 times in the past 5 years, in early 2007 and again in July 2007, as the market attempted to stabilize before being swamped by mortgage foreclosures. But different from 2007 when home sales slumped in the critical spring month of April amidst rising foreclosures and falling

consumer confidence, this year’s sales pace has risen steadily in each month and now stands 86% higher than the January pace.

Source- www.otteau.com

Page 36: August Market Update Seminar

1. Real Estate is Local

Top Five Rules for Understanding the Real

Estate Market:

2. Real Estate is Local

3. Real Estate is Local

4. Real Estate is Local5. Real Estate is Local

Page 37: August Market Update Seminar

1. Understand the Local Market That You are Buying into…

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Market Absorption Scale(Absorption Rate in Months)

5-6 months absorption rate indicates a normal market.

Page 39: August Market Update Seminar

8/18/09Towns Active

ListingsPending in Last 30 Days

Absorption Rate in Months

New Listings in 30 Days

Net Gain (Loss) to Market

Listings Reduced in 30 Days

% of Invent. Reduced

Expired Listings

W/drawn Listings

Closed Listings

Princeton Boro:

All Styles 46 4 11.5 6 2 5 11% 1 1 4

Pton -Boro Condo/ Thouses 12 0 99 1 1 2 17% 0 1 0

Pton-Boro

Single Family 34 4 8.5 5 1 3 9% 1 0 4

Pton Twp: All Styles 133 20 6.7 17 (3) 30 15% 10 8 21

Pton Twp: Condo/ Thouses 20 4 5 2 (2) 5 25% 3 1 4

Pton Twp:

Single Family 113 16 7.1 15 (1) 15 14% 7 7 17

Page 40: August Market Update Seminar

Town by Town Analysis 8/11/09Towns Active

ListingsPending in Last 30 Days

Absorption Rate in Months

New Listings in 30 Days

Net Gain (Loss) to Market

Listings Reduced in 30 Days

% of Invent. Reduced

Expired Listings

W/drawn Listings

Closed Listings

West Windsor:

All Styles

101 34 2.9 37 3 22 22% 7 4 43

West Windsor Condo/ T.Houses

18 8 2.2 7 (1) 5 28% 2 0 12

West Windsor

55+

7 0 99 - - - - - - -

West Windsor

Single Family

76 26 29 30 4 17 22% 5 4 31

Lawrence: All Styles

190 35 5.4 50 15 42 22% 13 14 31

Lawrence:

Condo/

THouses

91 15 6.0 25 10 19 21% 3 5 14

Lawrence:

55+26 0 99 - - - - - - -

Lawrence:

Single Family

83 20 4.1 25 25 23 27 10 9 27

Page 41: August Market Update Seminar

Town by Town Analysis 8/18/09Towns Active

ListingsPending in Last 30 Days

Absorption Rate in Months

New Listings in 30 Days

Net Gain (Loss) to Market

Listings Reduced in 30 Days

% of Invent. Reduced

Expired Listings

W/drawn Listings

Closed Listings

Ewing:

All Styles237 30 7.9 44 14 46 19% 19 8 27

Ewing : Condo/ T.Houses

44 3 14.6 10 7 10 23% 6 4 7

Ewing 55+: 1 0 99 - - - - - - -Ewing:

Single Family

172 27 6.3 34 7 36 21 12 4 20

East Windsor:

All Styles

188 28 6.7 45 12 37 19 18 8 25

East Windsor:

Condo/ THouses

99 12 8.2 25 13 19 19 10 5 11

East Windsor:

55+

19 0 99 - - - - - - -

East Windsor: Single Family

70 16 4.3 15 25 18 25 8 3 14

Page 42: August Market Update Seminar

Town by Town Analysis 8/18/09

Towns Active Listings

Pending in Last 30 Days

Absorption Rate in Months

New Listings in 30 Days

Net Gain (Loss) to Market

Listings Reduced in 30 Days

% of Invent. Reduced

Expired Listings

W/drawn Listings

Closed Listings

Hopewell Twp.

All Styles

174 19 9 25 6 35 20% 12 6 22

Hopewell Twp. Condo/ T.Houses

26 6 4 6 0 9 35% 3 1 5

Hopewell Twp.:

55+

6 0 99 - - - - - - -

Hopewell Twp:

Single Family

142 13 11 19 6 26 18% 9 5 17

Hamilton: All Styles 561 96 6 121 25 118 21% 36 19 91

Hamilton:

Condo/ THouses 95 22 4 27 5 27 28% 7 5 21

Hamilton:

Single Family 425 71 6 94 23 91 21% 29 14 70

Hamilton: 55+41 3 14 - - - - - - -

Page 43: August Market Update Seminar

Town by Town Analysis 8/18/09Towns Active

ListingsPending in Last 30 Days

Absorption Rate in Months

New Listings in 30 Days

Net Gain (Loss) to Market

Listings Reduced in 30 Days

% of Invent. Reduced

Expired Listings

W/drawn Listings

Closed Listings

Robbinsville

All Styles 108 17 6 27 10 19 18% 8 8 22

Robbinsville

Condo/ T.Houses

51 11 5 20 9 10 20% 4 3 13

Robbinsville

55+ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Single Family57 6 9.5 7 1 9 16% 4 5 9

Hightstown Boro: All Styles 59 2 29.5 13 11 17 29% 4 3 7

Pennington25 3 8 3 0 8 32% 3 2 6

Hopewell Boro:

All Styles 9 3 3 0 (3) 2 22% 0 0 3

Page 44: August Market Update Seminar

Market Activity: Town by Town Analysis 8/18/09Towns Active

ListingsPending in Last 30 Days

Absorption Rate in Months

New Listings in 30 Days

Net Gain (Loss) to Market

Listings Reduced in 30 Days

% of Invent. Reduced

Expired Listings

W/drawn Listings

Closed Listings

PlainsboroAll Styles

70 16 4.3 17 1 14 2% 9 0 22

Plainsboro

Condo/ THouses

41 10 4.1 11 1 9 21% 5 0 7

Plainsboro

55+11 0 99 3 3 1 9% 2 0 0

Plainsboro

Single Family

18 6 3 3 (3) 4 22% 2 0 15

Cranbury:

All Styles31 1 31 9 8 3 9% 1 0 0

Cranbury:

55+3 0 99 1 1 2 66% 0 0 0

Cranbury: Single Family

28 1 28 8 7 1 3% 1 0 0

Page 45: August Market Update Seminar

Town by Town Analysis 8/18/09Towns Active

ListingsPending in Last 30 Days

Absorption Rate in Months

New Listings in 30 Days

Net Gain (Loss) to Market

Listings Reduced in 30 Days

% of Invent. Reduced

Expired Listings

W/drawn Listings

Closed Listings

South

Brunswick

All Styles

208 24 8 43 19 35 16% 27 6 4

South Brunswick

Condo/ T.Houses

70 9 7 21 12 19 14 6 3 1

South Brunswick

55+

31 6 5 2 (4) 4 12 4 0 0

South Brunswick

Single Family

109 9 12 20 11 21 19 17 3 0

Monroe:

All Styles487 39 12 92 53 105 21% 41 7 9

Monroe:

55+312 29 10 53 24 68 21% 22 6 1

Monroe:

Single Family

175 10 21 39 29 37 21% 19 1 0

Page 46: August Market Update Seminar

8/18/09

Towns Active Listings

Pending in Last 30 Days

Absorption Rate in Months

New Listings in 30 Days

Net Gain (Loss) to Market

Listings Reduced in 30 Days

% of Invent. Reduced

Expired Listings

W/drawn Listings

Closed Listings

Montgom.140 43 3.3 33 (10) 38 28% 6 9 39

Hillsboro262 31 8.5 56 25 46 18% 18 8 46

Rocky Hill4 0 99 2 2 1 25% 0 1 0

Franklin406 65 6.2 90 25 79 20% 22 17 57

Page 47: August Market Update Seminar

Market Absorption Scale(Absorption Rate in Months)

5-6 months absorption rate indicates a normal market.

Page 48: August Market Update Seminar

Absorption Rate by Price Range

Weichert has been studying market conditions for more than 3 decades and has found a direct correlation between market

absorption and property values.

As absorption rates increase beyond a normal market level of 5-6 months, property

values depreciate annually.

Page 49: August Market Update Seminar

Sample Market Absorption RateSample Market Absorption Rate

107 current active listings

4 reported sales in last 30 days

=

24.3months absorptionrate

Anytown., NJ

5-6 Months Market Absorption Rate indicates a normal market.

Page 50: August Market Update Seminar

Princeton Borough Absorption Rate By Price

Towns Active Listings Pending in Last 30 Days

Absorption Rate in Months

0-$5009 0 99

$500-999k 14 2 7

$1 million - $2 million

15 0 99

$2- $5 million 7 0 99

Page 51: August Market Update Seminar

Princeton Township Absorption Rate By Price

Towns Active Listings Pending in Last 30 Days

Absorption Rate in Months

0-$5006 3 2

$500-999k 49 4 12.2

$1 million - $2 million

43 3 14.3

$2- $4 million 26 1 26

$4 + 2 0 99

Page 52: August Market Update Seminar

West Windsor Absorption Rate By Price

Towns Active Listings Pending in Last 30 Days

Absorption Rate in Months

0-$500

46 12 3.83

$500-750k 36 11 3.27

$750-999 20 3 6.6

$999 + 6 0 99

Page 53: August Market Update Seminar

Lawrence Absorption Rate By Price

Towns Active Listings Pending in Last 30 Days

Absorption Rate in Months

0-$400

134 16 8.3

$400-650 44 7 6.2

$650-999 11 1 11

$999 + 8 0 99

Page 54: August Market Update Seminar

Ewing Absorption Rate By Price

Towns Active Listings Pending in Last 30 Days

Absorption Rate in Months

0-$150

30 3 10

$150-250 126 12 10.5

$250-450 80 4 20

450+ 9 0 99

Page 55: August Market Update Seminar

Hopewell Absorption Rate By Price

Towns Active Listings Pending in Last 30 Days

Absorption Rate in Months

0-$400

63 4 15.7

$400-$650 46 1 46

$650-999 39 1 39

$999+ 33 0 99

Page 56: August Market Update Seminar

Lawrence Single Family Absorption Rate

0

5

10

15

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25

30

12

/29

/20

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91

/19

/20

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1/2

6/2

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92

/2/2

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92

/9/2

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92

/16

/20

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2/2

3/2

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93

/2/2

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93

/9/2

00

93

/16

/20

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3/2

3/2

00

93

/30

/20

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4/6

/20

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4/1

3/2

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94

/20

/20

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4/2

7/2

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95

/4/2

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95

/11

/20

09

5/1

8/2

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95

/25

/20

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6/1

/20

09

6/8

/20

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6/1

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00

96

/22

/20

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6/2

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97

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97

/13

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97

/27

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/20

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Lawrence Single Family Abs. Rate

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Princeton Twp. Single Family Absorption Rate

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90

Princeton Township Single Family Abs. Rate

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Princeton Boro. Single Family Absorption Rate

0

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40

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80

100

120

Princeton Boro Single Family Abs. Rate

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West Windsor Condo/Townhouses Absorption Rate

0

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20

25

30

West Windsor C/T Abs. Rate

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West Windsor Single Family Absorption Rate

0

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20

30

40

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60

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80

West Windsor Single Family Abs. Rate

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East Windsor Condo/Townhouse Absorption Rate

05

101520253035404550

East Windsor C/T Abs. Rate

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East Windsor Single Family Absorption Rate

0102030405060708090

East Windsor Single Family Abs. Rate

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Understand the Market That You are Buying into…

I want to live in West Windsor…

Page 64: August Market Update Seminar

Town by Town Analysis 8/11/09Towns Active

ListingsPending in Last 30 Days

Absorption Rate in Months

New Listings in 30 Days

Net Gain (Loss) to Market

Listings Reduced in 30 Days

% of Invent. Reduced

Expired Listings

W/drawn Listings

Closed Listings

West Windsor:

All Styles

101 34 2.9 37 3 22 22% 7 4 43

West Windsor Condo/ T.Houses

18 8 2.2 7 (1) 5 28% 2 0 12

West Windsor

55+

7 0 99 - - - - - - -

West Windsor

Single Family

76 26 29 30 4 17 22% 5 4 31

Lawrence: All Styles

190 35 5.4 50 15 42 22% 13 14 31

Lawrence:

Condo/

THouses

91 15 6.0 25 10 19 21% 3 5 14

Lawrence:

55+26 0 99 - - - - - - -

Lawrence:

Single Family

83 20 4.1 25 25 23 27 10 9 27

Page 65: August Market Update Seminar

Market Absorption RateWest Windsor Twp.

18 current active listings

7 reported ‘pending’ sales in last 30 days=2.5 month absorptionrate

Townhouses All Prices

Market Absorption Rate is the number of months it will take to sell the current inventory of homes if nothing new comes on the market and the rate of sales stays the same

5-6 Months Absorption Rate indicates a Normal Market

Page 66: August Market Update Seminar

Market Absorption Scale(Absorption Rate in Months)

5-6 months absorption rate indicates a normal market.

Page 67: August Market Update Seminar

Market Absorption RateWest Windsor Twp.

16 current active listings

3 reported ‘pending’ sales in last 30 days=5.5 month absorptionrate

Townhouses $0-500

Market Absorption Rate is the number of months it will take to sell the current inventory of homes if nothing new comes on the market and the rate of sales stays the same

5-6 Months Absorption Rate indicates a Normal Market

Page 68: August Market Update Seminar

Market Absorption RateWest Windsor Twp.

current active listings

0 reported ‘pending’ sales in last 30 days=4.25 month absorptionrate

Townhouses $500k+

Market Absorption Rate is the number of months it will take to sell the current inventory of homes if nothing new comes on the market and the rate of sales stays the same

5-6 Months Absorption Rate indicates a Normal Market

Page 69: August Market Update Seminar

Market Absorption RateWest Windsor Twp.

2 current active listings

0 reported ‘pending’ sales in last 30 days=99 month absorptionrate

Townhouses $500 +

Market Absorption Rate is the number of months it will take to sell the current inventory of homes if nothing new comes on the market and the rate of sales stays the same

5-6 Months Absorption Rate indicates a Normal Market

Page 70: August Market Update Seminar

2. ‘I am going to time the Market and buy at

the peak inventory level and when no one else

buys…’Source: MLS

Page 71: August Market Update Seminar

Source: MLS0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1/7/2007 4/1/2007 6/24/2007 9/23/2007 12/16/2007

Gross # of Guests 2007

Gross # ofGuests 2007

Weekly Guests Thru the Weichert Princeton Open Houses, 2007

Page 72: August Market Update Seminar

Source: MLS

Inventory Levels, Princeton, New Jersey, 2007

0

50

100

150

200

250

1/8/07 3/5/07 4/30/07 6/24/07 8/20/07 10/16/07 12/11/07

Page 73: August Market Update Seminar

3. ‘I am going to wait until the price comes down further and then make an

offer…’Source: MLS

Page 74: August Market Update Seminar

Source: trend mls

Relationship of Price Reductions to ‘Pending Sales’

0

10

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30

40

50

60

70

Princeton Pendings

Princeton Price Reductions

Page 75: August Market Update Seminar

Town by Town Analysis 8/18/09Towns Active

ListingsPending in Last 30 Days

Absorption Rate in Months

New Listings in 30 Days

Net Gain (Loss) to Market

Listings Reduced in 30 Days

% of Invent. Reduced

Expired Listings

W/drawn Listings

Closed Listings

South

Brunswick

All Styles

208 24 8 43 19 35 16% 27 6 4

South Brunswick

Condo/ T.Houses

70 9 7 21 12 19 14 6 3 1

South Brunswick

55+

31 6 5 2 (4) 4 12 4 0 0

South Brunswick

Single Family

109 9 12 20 11 21 19 17 3 0

Monroe:

All Styles487 39 12 92 53 105 21% 41 7 9

Monroe:

55+312 29 10 53 24 68 21% 22 6 1

Monroe:

Single Family

175 10 21 39 29 37 21% 19 1 0

Page 76: August Market Update Seminar

Source: trend mls

Relationship of Price Reductions to ‘Pending Sales’

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Princeton Pendings

Princeton Price Reductions

Page 77: August Market Update Seminar

Source: trend mls

Relationship of Price Reductions to ‘Pending Sales’

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

West Windsor Pendings

West Windsor Reductions

Page 78: August Market Update Seminar

Source: trend mls

Relationship of Price Reductions to ‘Pending Sales’

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Lawrence Pendings

Lawrence Reductions

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Seeing the Opportunity.Seeing the Opportunity.

Page 80: August Market Update Seminar

Seeing the Opportunity.Seeing the Opportunity.

Q. If this were 2005, where would you place the Price and Rate dots?

Prices Rates

High

Mid-Range

Low

A. In 2005, the V would look somewhat like this one, where prices were on the high end of the scale and rates were in the lower range.

Page 81: August Market Update Seminar

Seizing the Opportunity.Seizing the Opportunity.

In recent history, there has never been an opportunity like this, with low prices and low rates. In real estate, this circular area at the bottom of the V is called the “Buying Zone” – it’s an unbelievable time to buy.

Prices Rates

High

Mid-Range

Low

Page 82: August Market Update Seminar

Jeff Smith,

Gold Services Manager/ Loan Officer

Financial Benefits and Financial Benefits and Process of Home-Process of Home-

Ownership.Ownership.

Page 83: August Market Update Seminar

‘I don’t want to buy a house and then watch it drop in value!’

Page 84: August Market Update Seminar

 Purchase Price $329,000 Loan Amount $317400

Down Payment $11,515 Monthly P&I $1802

Appreciation/Depreciation Home Value1st Year -3% $319,1302nd Year 0% $319,1303rd Year 1% $322,3214th Year 3% $331,9905th Year 5% $348,5905 Year Appreciation/Depreciation $19,500

Tax Benefit  Vs Paying Rent @

$1600/mo1st Year $5,000 $19,2002nd Year $5,000 $19,2003rd Year $5,000 $19,2004th Year $5,000 $19,2005th Year $5,000 $19,2005 Year Total $25,000 $96,000

Total Gain $44,200Create Equity

v Pay Rent

Page 85: August Market Update Seminar

+ The Amortization Schedule on a Loan

Yearly Schedule of Balances and PaymentsYear

Beginning Balance

Payment Principal InterestCumulative

PrincipalCumulative Interest

Ending Balance

2010 $315,646.96 $21,625.92 $4,374.96 $17,250.96 $6,128.00 $24,508.72$311,272.0

0

2011 $311,272.00 $21,625.92 $4,621.30 $17,004.62 $10,749.30 $41,513.34$306,650.7

0

2012 $306,650.70 $21,625.92 $4,881.98 $16,743.94 $15,631.28 $58,257.28$301,768.7

2

2013 $301,768.72 $21,625.92 $5,157.36 $16,468.56 $20,788.64 $74,725.84$296,611.3

6

2014 $296,611.36 $21,625.92 $5,448.28 $16,177.64 $26,236.92 $90,903.48$291,163.0

8

= Total 5 Year Gain: $59,922

Page 86: August Market Update Seminar

Incentive From the Government

First-time homebuyers can receive a

tax credit up to $8000!

Page 87: August Market Update Seminar

Tax Credit OverviewAmount Ten percent of the cost of home, not to exceed

$8,000

Property Any single family residence that will be used as a principal residence

Refundable

Reduces income tax liability for the year of purchase

Income Limit

Adjusted gross income of $75,000 single or $150,000 joint tax returns

First-Time Must not have owned a principal residence in 3 years prior to purchase

Distribute NAR Tax Credit Overview handout

Page 88: August Market Update Seminar

Tax Credit FAQs

• Can individuals with incomes higher than the income limits still benefit from the tax credit?

• How does a tax credit work?

• How do I apply for the credit?

• Is there a way to get the credit before I file my tax return?

• How does the repayment work? Distribute NAR Frequently Asked Question handout

Page 89: August Market Update Seminar

How much house can I really afford?

Page 90: August Market Update Seminar

• The first step is to meet with me!

Establish Establish YourYour Buying Buying PowerPower

Page 91: August Market Update Seminar

Factors to consider Factors to consider when buying and when buying and

selling…selling…

Source: MLS

Inventory(supply and Inventory(supply and demand)demand)

Interest RatesInterest Rates

Page 92: August Market Update Seminar

Interest Rates Remain Interest Rates Remain LowLowAverage Annual Rate (30-year fixed rate mortgage)

5%

7%

9%

11%

13%

15%

17%

19%

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007

Year

Percent

Source: Freddie Mac

Page 93: August Market Update Seminar

Joshua D. Wilton, Manager

Strategies for Strategies for SellingSelling

Page 94: August Market Update Seminar

The Impact of Pricing on the Salability of Your Home..…

Page 95: August Market Update Seminar

‘Great speech but does it really work?

Page 96: August Market Update Seminar

We know the best way to evaluate pricing

Does this really work?

Page 97: August Market Update Seminar

We know the best way to evaluate pricing

Does this really work?

Page 98: August Market Update Seminar

22. . The Effect of The Effect of StagingStaging on the on the Value of a Value of a YourYour

HomeHome..

Page 99: August Market Update Seminar

The process of preparing homes for sale regardless of

Price, Location, or Condition

To achieve the maximum sales price in the minimum marketing time.

The GOAL is to appeal to the broadest range of BUYERS.

Page 100: August Market Update Seminar

The Way You Live In Your Home…

Page 101: August Market Update Seminar

… And The Way We Market And Sell A House Are Two Different

Things.

Page 102: August Market Update Seminar

“The Investment in Home Staging

is Always Less than Your First Price Reduction!”

Page 103: August Market Update Seminar

Buyers Only Know What They See …

Page 104: August Market Update Seminar

… Not The Way It Is Going To Be.

Page 105: August Market Update Seminar

Based on a StagedHomes.com survey of over 400 homes across Canada & the Continental US prepared for sale by an

Accredited Staging Professional (ASP™) from June 2007 through November 2007.

Page 106: August Market Update Seminar

The average increase in sales price of an ASP Staged vs. non-Staged home is

6.9%.That is an additional

$31,050 on a $450,000 sale.

Page 107: August Market Update Seminar

The average marketing

time of an ASP Staged vs. non-Staged home is 80%

less.

Page 108: August Market Update Seminar

3.3.The Effect of ‘The Effect of ‘Pre-Pre-Inspection’Inspection’ on the Sale of on the Sale of

YourYour Home. Home.

Page 109: August Market Update Seminar

What is

‘Pre-Inspection?’

Page 110: August Market Update Seminar

Home Inspection

WHAT DOES PRE-INSPECTION INCLUDE? The standard home inspector's report will review the condition of the home's heating system, central air

conditioning system (temperature permitting), interior plumbing and electrical systems; the roof, attic, and visible insulation; walls, ceilings, floors, windows and doors; the

foundation, basement, and visible structure.  

Page 111: August Market Update Seminar

PRE-LISTING Home Inspection

DOESN’T THE BUYER DO THE HOME INSPECTION?

Page 112: August Market Update Seminar

All Negotiations, including real estate, are all about negotiation and control.

Who is in control?

Right Price

Right Staging

All Repairs are done in advance.

Offer a Home Warranty to the buyer..

Page 113: August Market Update Seminar

PRE-LISTING Home Inspection

Data on where most sales fall apart: attorney review, home inspection.

Fall Thru Percentage 2007: 26%Fall Thru Percentage 2008: 10.2%.

Page 114: August Market Update Seminar

Home Improvements

I am moving out of the house, I do not want spend too much money to move.

Or

I just spent $$ on a new kitchen, I want $$$$$$ back on that investment when I move.

Page 115: August Market Update Seminar
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Reality of today’s market is that you will see the return on your investment not in an inflated sales price but in retaining the highest percentage of your list price and staying on the market the fewest # of days.

Please consult with your Realtor & staging professional as to which improvements you should finish to make your home the most salable.

Page 118: August Market Update Seminar

Weichert Family of Companies

What will a real estate company

do for me?

Page 119: August Market Update Seminar

Making Your Purchase as Making Your Purchase as Smooth as PossibleSmooth as Possible

Buying a home involves the careful coordination of many people.

Choosing a real estate team you can count on will make the process smoother

and easier.

Page 120: August Market Update Seminar

• Time is money.

The Weichert The Weichert DifferenceDifference

• Stress kills.

• Time is life.

Page 121: August Market Update Seminar

Educate You.

Negotiate on your behalf.

Offer advice on due diligence.

Manage all aspects of the transaction

process.

What Will a Weichert Agent Do for Me?

Page 122: August Market Update Seminar

We’re Here to HelpWe’re Here to Help

The Entire Process is reviewed by Legal Council.

Page 123: August Market Update Seminar

Weichert Princeton on Facebook

Page 124: August Market Update Seminar

Search ‘Weichert Realtors Princeton’

Page 125: August Market Update Seminar

Click ‘Become a Fan’

Page 126: August Market Update Seminar

Download seminar & read other market data

Page 127: August Market Update Seminar

Resource and website list:

Realtor.org

http://www.facebook.com/pages/

NAR-Research/73888294183#

Remodeling.com

Page 128: August Market Update Seminar

Resource and Website Resource and Website ListList

http://www.realtor.org/research/research/housinginx Remodeling.com

www.Otteau.com

www.Pre-listing-inspection.com

Page 129: August Market Update Seminar

Resource and Website Resource and Website List:List:

www.Housemaster.com

www.Stagingshoppingcenter.com

Page 130: August Market Update Seminar

Resource and website Resource and website list:list:

www.Stagedhomes.com

www.realestatestagingassociation.com

www.foreclosurepoint.com

www.realtytrac.com

Page 131: August Market Update Seminar

Good Luck with your Good Luck with your Move!Move!