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Sept 2014 Conditions Vs Current Conditions

IMPROVED: Kenya, Uganda, Sudan

DETERIORATED: South Sudan, Djibouti, Burundi, Kenya, Ethiopia, Burundi.

SAME: Rwanda, Eastern DRC, CAR

Sep

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2015 Sept 2014 Sept 2015

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Current Conditions: Regional Highlights

General improvement in food security situation in the region. However, some

deterioration seen in pastoral areas and an estimated 17.9M people in need of

humanitarian assistance.

• Crisis and emergency food insecurity

remains a concern in parts of DRC,

CAR, South Sudan, Ethiopia, Kenya,

parts of Karamoja, Darfur in Sudan,

IDP sites in Somalia;

• An estimated 17.9 people may be

facing food insecurity in the region.

• Dry conditions in pastoral areas of

Ethiopia, Djibouti and Sudan are

expected to continue till Dec

(GHACOF, Aug.).

• Conflicts/political tension remains a key driver for food insecurity in the

region (e.g South Sudan, Burundi, CAR, eastern DRC and Somalia.

• El Nino expected to lead to above average rainfall in some areas leading to

improved food security outcomes but also localised flooding but depressed

rainfalls in others persisting stressed/ food insecurity conditions

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Current Conditions – Burundi

Food security relatively stable due to Season B production though expected to remain stressed

to December. Improvements in food security in some areas unlikely to be sustained beyond

August due to below average overall harvest following disruptions.

Burundi WFP, IPC (priliminary)

•Generally food security conditions is good

due to the season B harvest.

•About 100,000 are considered in food

insecurity crisis.

•Significant number of farming population

have fled to neigboring countries

(UNHCR) due to the political crisis

•The political crisis negatively affected Economic Activities in the

country, particularly the capital Bujumbura. Trade in agricultural

comoditities fell by about 50%.

•The lean period is expected to start in September, is likely be

exacerbated by the negative effects of the current crisis

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Current Conditions – South Sudan

South Sudan - FEWSNET

• In general, the food security has improved in the country. However, the conflict affected states remain in phase 3 & 4.

• In GUN crop conditions are generally favorable, although planted area is well below average

•Cereal prices continue to rise well above the five-year average. Sorghum prices increased by 23 and 67 percent in July in Juba and Wau, respectively.

•A typical livestock migration due to conflict - inadequate extension services. Reported disease outbreaks in Jonglei, Lakes, and EES.

•IPC Analysis has just been concluded awaiting government approval

• Continued decline in acute food insecurity due to improved

access during the harvest period.

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Current Conditions – Sudan

Sudan - FEWSNET

• Below average rainfall (25-80%) countrywide, delayed planting resulting into bellow average area planted. This will most likely lead to below-average production.

• Pasture conditions have not regenerated as expected and this will impact overall livestock production

•An estimated 52,000 people in the South Kordofan and Blue Nile States face food insecurity. This is attributed to insecurity, disruption of market supplies, and poor rainfall performance

•An estimated 211,000 people remained displaced by conflict in Darfur since January 2015.

An estimated 52,000 people in the South Kordofan and Blue Nile States

face food insecurity

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Current Conditions – ETHIOPIA

ETHIOPI – FEWSNET, WFP

• Average rainfall for Jul to Sep. Karan/Karma rains remains below average. This has compounded the poor livestock body conditions and livestock production especially in Afar and Sitti Zones.

•High cereal and low Livestock prices and demand will put pressure on poor households in meetin their food needs

•Unusual livestock deaths and migration has been reported , particularly in Afar and Somali region.

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Current Conditions – Djibouti

Crisis levels of food insecurity to continue in 2015 due to consecutive poor seasons. Lean

season to be more sever in Southeastern pastoral and Obock areas.

Djibouti Fews Net

•About 120,000 are in PC Phase 2 & 3,

and expected to persist until end end of

Sept, especially in the southern pastoral

zone and the Obock region.

• The current elongated lean season,

pasture, browse and water scarcity may

worsen, resulting into sales of livestock

at low prices (GHACOF, prediction)

•The impact of the failed season reduced

household food access, coupled with

limited labour opportunities and

inadequte humanitarian assistance

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5 Current Conditions - Rwanda

Rwanda FEWSNET, WFP

• Overall, food security have improved due to the harvest from B season 2015 (As reported in August).

• Normal rainfall experienced in the first 10 days of September, succeeding drier than normal conditions in August (El Nino event).

• Annual crops are being planted for season A which normally starts in the second half of September, mainly maize, Beans and roots;

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Current Conditions – DR Congo

An estimated 6.5 million people were under crisis and emergency situation until June 2015.

DRC Preliminary IPC Analysis

• From the preliminary IPC, improved

food Security being observed in

regions where security is not of major

concerns.

•However, large part of the country is

still experiencing chronic food

insecurity, especially the East of the

country.

•The final IPC report will be released

by the end of Sept.

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Food insecurity in Karamoja likely to persist due to delayed harvest until

September/October thereby prolonging the lean season.

Uganda IPC, Info trade Uganda

• Food security situation in Uganda is

generally good due to the first season

harvest. However, there still concerns in

Karamoja.

• Prices of staple food across the country

generally increased in major makers.

• Most areas with Karamoja are in phase 3

(238,575) and 4 phase 4 (56,370).

Though areas cultivated were reported to

have increased, crop production was

generally below normal.

Current Conditions – Uganda

• Pasture and browse condition are still good. However, high

prevalence of diseases is affecting livestock production.

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Current Conditions – Somalia

SOMALIA FAO, WFP, FSNAU, FEWSNET,

• Post Gu (April-June) assessment report

indicates worsening FS conditions. • About 855 000 people in phase 3 & 4,

particularlly in Banadi; South & North

Mudug, Bari, Awdal, Lower Juba, Woqooyi

Galbeed

• Additional 2.3m people are in phase 2.

• 17% Increase in the number in phase 3&4

is attributed to; below average cereal

harvests, poor rainfall; trade disruption,

conflict and displacement

Food security situation likely to worsen following below-average GU performance. Rising risks

of flooding and damage to crops around the Shabelle and Juba regions.

• Off-season harvest expected (3,900 tons) by end of

September in Jowhar and River Rind areas.

• In some agro-pastoral areas, the food security will improve

improved due to Deyr rainfall.

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Current Conditions – Kenya

Food security expected to deteriorate through October as a result of below-average production

over previous two seasons and uneven rainfall in southeastern and coastal areas. Projected

above-average rainfall during October-December could improve food security outcomes over

longer term.

KENYA The 2015 LR Assessment Report

• General improvement in the food security

situation attributed to the on-going harvest,

improved milk production and income as result

of good MAM rains as well as cross-boarder

food (trade) inflow.

• However, about 1.1m people are still in phase 3&4, though the

number has declined by 31% compared to 2015 SR assessment.

• Localized parts northern Isiolo and western Wajir still experiencing

food insecurity . Turkana County still remains at very critical, though

the situation has notably improved.

• Food prices across most urban, pastoral and marginal agricultural

markets remains fairly stable. This is due to supplies from harvest and

imports.

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5 Country Pop in IPC phase 3 & 4 Source

Burundi 100,000 Preliminary IPC, Aug 2015

CAR 1,268,000 IPC April 2015

Djibouti 120,000

DRC 6,500,000 IPC Dec 2014 – June 2015

Ethiopia 4,505,111 HRD, Aug 2015

Kenya 1,074, 000 KFSSG, Feb 2015

Somalia 855 000 FSNAU, August 2015

South Sudan 2,750,000 IPC, Aug-Sept 2015 projection

Uganda 294,945 IPC June 2015

Sudan 1,288,759 IPC, June 2015

TOTAL 17,900,815

Population in Food Insecurity Crisis or Emergency (IPC Phase 3 & 4)

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Sep

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2015

Nutrition Update

FSNWG Nutrition Sub-Group

Eastern and Central African Region

Nutrition Update

24th September 2015

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Sep

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2015

Nutrition Update

Regional Context

In September 2015, 17.9 million people in elevated food insecurity in

East and Central Africa

INCREASED VULNERABILITY TO 3.6 MILLION CHILDREN UNDER

FIVES: SEVERE AND ACUTE MALNUTRITION, FEEDING

PRACTICES, MORBIDITY/MORTALITY

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Sep

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2015

Nutrition Update

Ethiopia

Bi annual nutrition

surveys (June/July

2015)

• Increased GAM

rates

• Children in 56% of

surveyed woredas

with GAM above

15%

Critical situation for

children (based on

WHO standards)

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Sep

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2015

Nutrition Sub-Group

Ethiopia

• January to July 2015, 177,748 SAM

cases admissions nationwide

• July 2015 admissions (31,729

cases) are significantly higher than

in 2012-4

• Increase in SAM admissions however,

does not portray the regional and

woreda level deterioration observed in

the Belg affected areas

• GoE revised 2015 SAM target from

264,000 to 302,000

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Sep

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2015

Nutrition Update

Ethiopia

• Increased number (x3) of nutrition hotspot (priority 1 woredas from 49 to 142)

August 2015 nutrition

hotspots:

Oromia (48), Amhara

(35), Somali (19), Afar

(17), SNNP (15), Tigray

(7), Gambella (1)

49

149 140

97

191

60

142

189

84

Priority 1 Woredas Priority 2 Woredas Priority 3 Woredas

Priority Woredas (nutrition hotspot)

Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15

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2015

Nutrition Update

Somalia

Deterioration in the nutrition situation of children in some parts of central and southern regions of

Somalia

Acute malnutrition, Somalia, July

2015

Estimated acute malnutrition

situation, Somalia, Aug-Oct 2015

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Sep

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2015

Nutrition Update

Somalia

Increased in the number of children in need of treatment for acute malnutrition: 214,700 to 343,400.

Critical levels of acute

malnutrition in Hiraan

region (Bulo Burte district)

and deterioration in food

security and nutrition

situation in Bakool region

Nutrition situation

amongst IDPs is of high

concern: 68% of

population in IPC 3 & 4

are IDPs

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Sep

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2015

Nutrition Update

Somalia SAM admissions trends (first three

months, 2014-5):

• Higher SAM admissions in Q1

• Higher SAM admissions higher

in 2015

Admissions to nutrition centers

indicate a worrisome nutrition

situation in:

• Hiraan region (Bulo Burte and

Beled Weyne);

• Banadir region; riverine

livelihood areas in Gedo

• Shabelle regions;

• Bay and Bakool pastoral and

agro-pastoral livelihood areas;

pastoral and agro-pastoral areas

along the Juba valley;

• Addun Hawd livelihood areas in

Central regions;

• IDP populations.

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Sep

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2015

Nutrition Update

Kenya

• Nutrition situation has improved in most areas assessed due to improved food security outcomes.

BUT

• Turkana County still remains at very critical/ critical levels as GAM dropped from 17.4 to 16.7 percent in Turkana

West, from 28.7 to 20.9 percent in Turkana Central and, 27.2 to 22.9 percent in Turkana North. Unchanged in Turkana

South and East at 24.5 percent.

• Critical situation in Mandera County (GAM - 24.7 percent) due to extremely high vulnerabilities in the county.

• Nutrition situation deteriorated in:

• Wajir North from poor to critical with prevalence of GAM increasing from 8.8 percent to 14.3 percent.

• Isiolo County has also deteriorated from serious to critical given this area did suffer from poor rainfall and is

currently classified in IPC Phase 3 - Crisis.

• Nutrition situation improved from very critical to critical in East Pokot (secondary data).

• The total number of children less than five years requiring treatment (total caseloads) in the areas assessed has dropped

to 239,446 in the LRA 2015 compared to 261,120 reported in the 2015 short rains assessment

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Sep

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2015

Nutrition Update

Eritrea

• Trend of acute malnutrition –

based on MUAC screening - in

Southern Red Sea (SRS),

Gash Barka and Anseba

regions has steadily increased

in the last three years.

• April 2015 MUAC screening:

national GAM rate is around 5

%

• Data collection for the

UNICEF and WFP supported

food security and nutrition

assessment completed. Data

analysis to be completed by

end September 2015.

Djibouti

• Admissions of SAM and MAM cases

increased in Obock and Balbala, a peri-

urban area of Djibouti City, when compared

to last year

• Implications of the Yemen crisis: fragile

nutritional status of some of the Yemeni

children arriving to Djibouti in coastline

areas from Hajjah to Abyan with acute

malnutrition above WHO emergency

threshold of 15 per cent.

• 2015 lean season is expected to be more

severe than usual, particularly in the

Southeastern pastoral and Obock areas

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2015

Nutrition Update

Burundi

MUAC Screening in Nyanzalac health

district, Makamba province, July 2015:

• MUAC based GAM @ 8.3%

• MUAC based SAM @ 1%

• MUAC based MAM @ 7.3%

A “Stunting baseline survey conducted in

Aug/Sept in Rutana, Karuzi and Muramya

provinces.

• To estimate the prevalence of stunting,

food consumption scores, level of

minimum acceptable diet among

children 6-23 months

• Preliminary results will be out in

October

Planned EFSA in October

Rwanda

• CFSVA conducted by WFP in may 2015

in all districts (30) > Draft report to be

released soon

• Nutrition survey planned in Mahama

refugee camp in October 2015

Karamoja region:

• Serious GAM was at 14.1 % in June 2015

with 4 (Moroto, Napak, Nakapiripirit and

Kaabong) out of the 7 districts having a

critical GAM level.

• SAM at 3.7%, above SAM emergency

• Worst off situation in Moroto and Napak

where SAM was at 6% and 5.5%

respectively.

Uganda

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2015

Nutrition Update

South Sudan

Dire nutrition situation.

Deterioration is likely because of:

• Few or no planting and no harvesting in Greater Upper Nile area

• The planted crops in the Greater Equatorial will likely not give a huge bumper harvest due to the erratic

rains the planting period

• The high prices of basic foods mostly affecting the vulnerable

• The unstable currency causing prices of basic foods being imported to be expensive

• High morbidity, compounded by poor health seeking behaviors, WASH and other factors

Sep

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2015

Nutrition Update

South Sudan

Revised MAM

Target

344,255

Reached

July 2015

49.5%

(170,567)

Revised SAM

Target

143,442

Reached

July 2015

60%

(86,023)

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2015

Nutrition Update

South Sudan

Bentiu POC updates:

• GAM: 34.1% (95%CI: 31.1 - 37.2)

• SAM: 10.5 %% (95%CI: 8.5 - 12.9)

• Significantly Higher GAM among newly

arrived children when compared to other

children in the POC

GAM rates above critical level as per WHO

standards.

• Crude mortality rate: 1.29 (0.75-2.20) (95%

CI)

• Under five mortality rate: 0.17 (0.02-1.34)

(95% CI)

CMR and U5MR under WHO emergency

threshold (2/10,000 persons/day for crude

mortality rate and 4/10,000 U5 children/day

for U5MR)

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2015

Nutrition Update

Regional nutritional synthesis

Critical nutrition situation for young children in several countries –

various scale- due to a deterioration of household food security:

• Ethiopia, Somalia, Uganda, South Sudan, Kenya

Concern over the nutrition situation of IDP children especially in

Somalia

Food security forecast and upcoming development to influence

ongoing observations for child nutrition and other vulnerable

population, in the coming months

Absence of up to date information on child nutrition status limits

national and regional analysis remains a concern for some

countries.

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Regional refugee update

Sep

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South Sudan situation

• The security situation in Upper Nile remains volatile and tense. In

the South of Malakal, there has been intermittent fighting this month.

• IGAD-sponsored ceasefire and transitional security workshop

started in Addis Ababa on 12th September to discuss mechanisms to

ensure the peace deal holds.

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Burundi situation (as of 13th September)

• The situation in Burundi remains volatile with continued incidents of

sporadic violence in the capital. UNHCR is anticipating that the situation

will not improve and will prepare an updated regional response plan for

2016.

• The overall arrival trend in Tanzania and Uganda has reduced. The

government of Tanzania has officially announced new camp sites.

Sep

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5 Nutrition and food security updates

• South Sudan: 30% food ration reduction until the end of the year. Recent MUAC screening results in Upper Nile Doro camp show 14.2% MUAC malnutrition among children under five and 29.8% MUAC malnutrition among pregnant and lactating women.

• Sudan: UNHCR and UNICEF signed a letter of understanding to coordinate the nutrition interventions to South Sudanese refugees in West Nile State. The planning of a nutrition survey is under discussion.

• Kenya: 30% food ration reduction until the end of the year. Annual SENS conducted in Dadaab in August 2015 shows that the GAM prevalence in all 5 camps is between 5 and 10%, while the prevalence of SAM varies between 1 and 1.4%. However anaemia prevalence among children under five is above 40% in 4 of the 5 camps. The results for IYCF show low levels of exclusive breastfeeding (below 25% in 4 of the 5 camps).

Sep

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Nutrition and food security updates

• Tanzania (Nyarugusu):

Rapid Joint Assessment Mission conducted between 1st – 4th September.

Participation from WFP, UNHCR, UNICEF, FAO and partners.

Objectives:

1) Update the food security and nutrition situation in Nyarugusu refugee operation, with particular attention to the Burundi new arrivals.

2) Review the quality and appropriateness of the ongoing food security and nutrition program identifying good practices, principle constraints, lessons learned and areas requiring improvement.

3) Identify effective food security, nutrition and livelihood interventions that will protect and ensure continued food and nutrition security in sustainable manner.

Methodology: review of secondary data and collection of primary data through focus group discussions, key informant interviews, observation.

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MARKET UPDATE

Sep

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0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

USD

/MT

for

Jub

a, S

ou

th S

ud

an

USD

/MT

Figure 1: Maize Price Projections for Selected Markets in East Africa (TSP, MAD + or – USD 40/MT) Source: FEWSNET

Mombasa, Kenya Mbeya, Tanzania

Masindi, Uganda Qorioley, Somalia

Juba, South Sudan

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0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

May

-13

Jul-

13

Sep

-13

No

v-1

3

Jan

-14

Mar

-14

May

-14

Jul-

14

Sep

-14

No

v-1

4

Jan

-15

Mar

-15

May

-15

Jul-

15

Sep

-15

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Mar

-16

May

-16

Jul-

16

USD

/MT

for

Jub

a, S

ou

th S

ud

an

USD

/MT

Figure 1: Sorghum Price Projections (dotted) for Selected Markets in East Africa (TSP, MAD = 10%). Source: FEWSNET

Baidoa, Somalia Gulu, Uganda (retail)Kisumu, Kenya Gadarif, SudanJuba, South Sudan (retail)

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Climate Update By

Zachary Atheru

IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE (ICPAC)

Sep

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GHACOF 41 consensus climate outlook for September to December 2015

Tuesday, September 29, 2015 INTERGOVERNMENTAL AUTHORITY ON

DEVELOPMENT 38

Analogue years

Sep

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FORECAST IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS

Tuesday, September 29, 2015

INTERGOVERNMENTAL AUTHORITY ON DEVELOPMENT 39

SOND LTM DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SOND

FORECAST AND LTM

Sep

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CLIMATE UPDATE

Tuesday, September 29, 2015 INTERGOVERNMENTAL AUTHORITY ON

DEVELOPMENT 40

There is

95% chance

that El Niño

will

continue

through

Northern

Hemisphere

winter 2015-

16,

gradually

weakening

through

spring 2016

Sep

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CURRENT SST ANOMALIES

Tuesday, September 29, 2015 INTERGOVERNMENTAL AUTHORITY ON

DEVELOPMENT 41

Sep

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INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE

Tuesday, September 29, 2015 INTERGOVERNMENTAL AUTHORITY ON

DEVELOPMENT 42

Sep

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Thank you

Tuesday, September 29, 2015 INTERGOVERNMENTAL AUTHORITY ON

DEVELOPMENT 43

Sep

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5 El Nino Update

Status of regional and national preparedness actions

At the regional level, countries likely to be affected by El

Nino events (exceptionally heavy or flash floods or

unexpected major droughts) should quickly test their

respective early warning systems, response capacity and

ensure that they are fully operational. OCHA Regional

office is following up especially in countries where

impact of El Nino may be highest.

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Country El Nino preparedness actions as of mid-September 2015

Country Early warning actions Response activities

Eritrea There is no national or UN El Nino contingency plan for multiple hazards in Eritrea

Kenya The 2014 El Nino contingency plan is updated with 2015 action plan by sector by 22 September 2015. Kenya Red Cross has preparedness plan and are working to harmonise with national contingency plan

There is a NDOC-led El Nino preparedness and response taskforce with KRCS has started regular meetings with response actors (line ministries)

Ethiopia Sub-national preparedness plans in place for every region Based on national disaster management structure

National DRM taskforce has action plans for every ministry Safety net for drought-affected

Somalia El Nino contingency plan being finalised by humanitarian partners Access may be a problem

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Country El Nino preparedness actions as of mid-September 2015

Country Early warning actions Response activities

Rwanda There is a national El Nino-focused contingency plan

Burundi There is a national multi hazard contingency plan including floods.

Burundi Red Cross has flood response experience.

Djibouti There is a national contingency plan inclusive of floods.

External support (first responders French, US armies) needed to support increased number of vulnerable groups (vulnerable Djiboutians, Yemeni refugees in camps or host communities)

Uganda There is a national contingency plan inclusive of floods. NECOC is coordinating, collecting and sharing forecast information with district officials and other relevant stakeholders.

The Government-led DRR taskforce has met to discuss and sectoral, district contingency plans are being developed

Sudan Humanitarian partners working on multi-hazard early warning plan.

South Sudan

Humanitarian partners working on multi-hazard contingency plan