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7/30/2019 seminar politici fiscale
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POLITICI BUGETARE VULNERABILE-
POLITICI BUGETARE SUSTENABILE:
ASEMNRI, DEOSEBIRI,
INTERDEPENDENE
Andreea Stoian, Lect.univ.dr.
Catedra de FinaneGrupul Uniunea Economic i Monetar
Tutor:
Prof.univ.dr. Nicolae Dardac
Aceast prezentare are la baz lucrarea intitulat Vulnerabilitatea vs.sustenabilitatea politicilor bugetare: aspecte teoretice (autor,Stoian Andreea) susinut n
cadrul celei de a XIa Conferine Internaionale Stabilitatea financiar i monetar n rile emergente,
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7/30/2019 seminar politici fiscale
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POLITICI BUGETARE VULNERABILE-POLITICI
BUGETARE SUSTENABILE: ASEMNRI, DEOSEBIRI,
INTERDEPENDENE
Menionare
Aceast lucrare a fost cofinanat din Fondul Social
European, prin Programul Operaional Sectorial
Dezvoltarea Resurselor Umane 2007-2013, proiect
numrul POSDRU/89/1.5/S/59184 Performan i
excelen n cercetarea postdoctoral n domeniultiineloreconomice din Romnia.
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7/30/2019 seminar politici fiscale
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7/30/2019 seminar politici fiscale
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POLITICI BUGETARE VULNERABILE-POLITICI
BUGETARE SUSTENABILE: ASEMNRI, DEOSEBIRI,
INTERDEPENDENE
Criza financiar
Politica fiscal este vulnerabil
Politica fiscal poate deveni nesustenabil pe
termen lung
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7/30/2019 seminar politici fiscale
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CONCEPTUL DE SUSTENABILITATE A
POLITICII BUGETARE Sustenabilitatea politicii bugetareo bun gestionare a resurselor financiare
publice
Blanchard (1990), i Blanchard, Chouraqui, Hageman, i Sartor (1990) acele politici care nu conduc la creterea exploziv a gradului de ndatorare a statului,
sau n urma crora nu se adopt msuri de cretere a impozitrii, de reducere drastica cheltuielilor publice, de monetizare a deficitului bugetar sau de repudiere a datorieipublice sau cnd datoria public converge spre nivelul iniial
Zee (1987), Horne (1991), Buiter (1995), Chalk i Hemming (2000), de Castro Fernandezi Hernandez de Cos (2000)
solvabilitate
Artis, 2000; Croce i Juan-Ramon, 2003 solvabilitatea va fi realizat n condiiile neschimbrii politicii fiscale
Hamilton i Flavin (1986), Chouraqui, Hagemann i Sartor (1990), Blanchard
(1990), Gramlich (1990), Horne (1991), Buiter (1995) politica bugetar este sustenabil n condiiile n care ponderea datoriei publice n
produsul intern brut nu crete mai repede dect ecartul dintre rata real a dobnzii irata real a creterii economice
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CONCEPTUL DE VULNERABILITATE APOLITICII BUGETARE
Vulnerabilitatea politicii bugetare
Furman i Stiglitz (1999) incapacitii acesteia de absorbi ocurile (de exemplu, atacuri speculative asupra
monedei naionale) i de a le transforma n riscuri sistemice
Allen et al (2002), Rial i Vicente (2004) economia este vulnerabil atunci cnd exist un risc de nerespectare a
constrngerilor de lichiditate i/sau solvabilitate bugetare, din perspectiva
modelului de constrngere bugetar intertemporal
Brixi et al (2000)
risc fiscal: orice modificare neprevzut sau care depete un anumit nivelal acestor obligaii induce un anumit grad de risc n ceea ce priveteposibilitatea i modalitatea aleas pentru finanare a acestora i poate aveaca i consecine creterea deficitelorbugetare i contractarea de datorie public
Hemming i Petrie (2000), i Hemming et al (2003) (i) evitarea deficitelor bugetare excesive i acumularea unui stoc foarte ridicat aldatoriei publice care ar putea amenina stabilitatea macroeconomic pe termen scurt i
sustenabilitatea fiscal pe termen lung; (ii) asigurarea de ctre guvern a faptului cpolitica bugetar contribuie activ la gestionarea cererii agregate, avnd un anumit gradde flexibilitate ce permite o reacie imediat i corespunztoare la posibile dezechilibreinterne i externe manifestate la nivel macroeconomic; (iii) meninerea unor rate deimpozitare stabile i acceptabile care s permit colectarea unui nivel suficient alveniturilor fiscale la bugetul public.
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7/30/2019 seminar politici fiscale
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POLITIC BUGETAR VULNERABIL-POLITIC BUGETAR SUSTENABIL:
ASEMNRI
Capacitatea guvernului de a genera
resurse financiare pentru acoperirea
obligaiilor generate de satisfacereanevoilor colective
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7/30/2019 seminar politici fiscale
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POLITIC BUGETAR VULNERABIL-POLITIC BUGETAR SUSTENABIL:
DEOSEBIRI Demarcaia dintre cele dou concepte este foarte fin
Deosebirea dintre cele dou concepte este reprezentatde orizontul de timp
Sustenabilitatea politicii bugetare concept de tipforward-looking
Vulnerabilitatea politicii bugetare concept de tipbackward-looking
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7/30/2019 seminar politici fiscale
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POLITIC BUGETAR VULNERABIL-POLITIC BUGETAR SUSTENABIL:
INTERDEPENDENE
O politic bugetar vulnerabil promovat
n trecut poate conduce la o politic
bugetar nesustenabil n viitor
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7/30/2019 seminar politici fiscale
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EVIDENE EMPIRICE PENTRU STATELE UE
Soldul bugetar
26%
37%
37%>=0
[-3,0)
>-3
BE
DE
IE
GR
ES
FR IT
CY
NL
LU
MT
AT
PT
SI
SK
FI
BG
CZ
DK
EE
LV
LT
HU
PL
RO
SE
UK
-7.0
-6.0
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
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7/30/2019 seminar politici fiscale
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EVIDENE EMPIRICE PENTRU STATELE UE
Datoria public
LU
NL
MT
CY
IT
FR
ES
GR
IE
DE
BE
PTAT
SI
SKFI
BG
CZ
DK
EE
LV
LT
RO
PL
SEUK
HU
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
19%
11%
40%
30%
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7/30/2019 seminar politici fiscale
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EVIDENE EMPIRICE PENTRU STATELE UE
Soldul primar
BE
DEGR
IE
ES
FR
IT
CY
LUNL
AT
SIPT
SK
FI
BG
CZ
DK
EE
LV
LTHUROPL
UK
SE
MT
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
63%
37%
>=0
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7/30/2019 seminar politici fiscale
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EVIDENE EMPIRICE PENTRU STATELE UE
Gap >0=0
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7/30/2019 seminar politici fiscale
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EVIDENE EMPIRICE PENTRU STATELE UE
Indicator BE DE IE EL ES FR IT CY LU MT NL
d -1.2 -2.3 1.2 -5.1 -1.3 -3.0 -3.4 -2.9 2.5 -6.0 -1.0
b 106.4 61.8 43.2 99.5 53.9 60.4 110.5 61.4 6.8 59.3 57.6
p 5.0 0.7 3.5 1.7 1.8 0.0 3.4 0.2 2.8 -2.7 2.6
gap 1.5 2.8 -6.7 -1.4 -1.8 1.3 1.6 -1.6 -3.1 0.6 0.5
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EVIDENE EMPIRICE PENTRU STATELE UE
Indicator AT PT SI SK FI BG CZ DK EE LV LT HU PL RO SE UK
d -2.2 -3.7 -2.6 -5.6 1.9 0.6 -4.8 1.3 0.7 -1.2 -2.7 -6.5 -4.2 -2.8 0.2 -1.9
b 65.3 57.4 25.1 37.7 45.6 55.7 22.5 50.5 5.6 12.4 18.7 62.8 42.8 19.4 57.6 43.6
p 1.1 -0.4 -0.6 -3.0 4.6 5.9 -3.7 4.8 0.9 -0.4 -1.7 -0.7 -0.8 -0.3 3.5 0.7
gap 1.3 0.1 -1.9 -2.9 -0.2 -101.8 -3.4 1.9 -12.3 -13.1 -15.2 -6.6 -5.6 -42.6 0.4 0.5
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Referine bibliografice: Afonso, A. (2000), Fiscal Policy Sustainability: Some Unpleasant European Evidence, ISEG Working Paper, 12/2000/DE/CISEP, August Afonso, A.; Rault, C. (2008), 3-Step Analysis of Public Finance Sustainability. The Case of the European Union, European Central Bank Working Paper Series
No.908/June
Afonso, A.; Agnello, L.; Furceri, D.; Sousa, R. (2009), Assessing Long Term Fiscal Developments: A New Approach, European Central Bank, Working PaperSeries No.1032/March 2009
Alesina, A. (2000), The Political Economy of the Budget Surplus in the United States,The J ournal of Economic Perspectives, 14 (3): 3-19 Allen, M. et al (2002), A Balance Sheet Approach to Financial Crisis, IMF Working Paper WP/02/210 Artis, M. (2000), Comment, published in Fiscal Sustainability essays presented at the Bank of Italy workshop held in Perugia, 20-22 January, pp. 245-250 Balassone, F. et al (2009), Fiscal Sustainability and Policy Implications for the Euro Area, European Central Bank Working Paper Series, No. 994/January Balassone, F., Franco, D. (2000), Assessing Fiscal Sustainability: A Review of Methods with a View to EMU, published in Fiscal Sustainability essays
presented at the Bank of Italy workshop held in Perugia, 20-22 January, pp. 21-60
Blanchard, O. (1990), Suggestions for a New Set of Fiscal Indicators, OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No.79 Blanchard, O., Chouraqui, J.C., Hagemann, P.R., Sartor, N. (1990), The Sustainability of Fiscal Policy: New Ansewars to Old Questions, OECD Economic
Studies No.15, Autumn 1990 Brixi, H. P. et al (200), Managing Fiscal Risk in Bulgaria, Policy Research Working Paper 2282, J anuary 2000, The World Bank Buiter, W.H. (1995), Measuring Fiscal Sustainability, www.nber.org/~wbuiter-sustain.pdf Chalk, N., Hemming, R. (2000), Assessing Fiscal Sustainability in Theory and Practice, IMF Working Paper WP/00/81 Corsetti, G.; Roubini, N. (1996), European versus American Perspectives on Balanced Budget-Rules,The American Economic Review, 86, (2): 408-413 Croce E, Juan-Ramon V H (2003): Assessing Fiscal Sustainability: A Cross-Country Comparison, IMF Working Paper WP/03/145, July de Castro Fernandez, F., Hernandez de Cos, P. (2000), On the Sustainability of the Spanish Public Budget Performance, published in Fiscal Sustainability
essays presented at the Bank of Italy workshop held in Perugia, 20-22 January, pp. 135-173
Fatas, A.; Mihov, I. (2009), The Euro and Fiscal Policy, NBER Working Paper No.14722, February 2009 Furman, J.; Stiglitz, J. (1999), Economic Crisis: Evidence and Insights from East Asia, aprut n Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, editat de Brainard,
William i Perry Goerge, The Brookings Institution, 1999 Gramlich, E.M. (1990), Fiscal Indicators, OECD Department of Economics and Statistics Working Paper No.80, April 1990 Hamilton, J.D.; Flavin, M.A. (1986), On the Limitations of Government Borrowing: A Framework for Empirical Testing,The American Economic Review,
Vol.76, No.4 (Sep., 1986), pp.808-819
Hemming, R. et al (2003), Fiscal Vulnerability and Financial Crisis in Emerging Market Economies, Ocasional Paper 218, IMF, 2003 Hemming, R.; Petrie, M. (2000), A Framework for Assessing Fiscal Vulnerability, IMF Working Paper WP/00/52, March Horne, J. (1991), Indicators of Fiscal Sustinability, IMF Working Paper, WP/91/5 Kotlikoff L.; Hagist, C. (2005), Whos Going Broke? Comparing Growth in Healthcare Costs in Ten OECD Countries, NBER Working Paper Series Krejdl, A. (2006), Fiscal Sustainability. Definition, Indicators and Assessment of Czech Public Finance Sustainability, Czech National Bank, Working Paper
Series 3, 3/2006
Rial, I.; Vicente, L. (2004), Fiscal Sustainability and Vulnerability in a Small Open Economy: The Uruguayan Experience, aprut n Public Debt editat de
Banca DItalia, Research Department Public Finance Workshop, 2004 Zee, H.H. (1987), On the Sustainability and Opimality of Government Debt, IMF Working Paper WP/87/83, December 1987
http://www.nber.org/~wbuiter-sustain.pdfhttp://www.nber.org/~wbuiter-sustain.pdfhttp://www.nber.org/~wbuiter-sustain.pdfhttp://www.nber.org/~wbuiter-sustain.pdf