Sector performance and valuation update; …...Sector performance and valuation update; "squeezed...

September 4th, 2012

Research Report: Sector update

Davy on Food and Beverages

Sector performance and valuation update; "squeezed middle" a big challenge for consumer-facing companies

www.davy.ie Bloomberg: DAVY<GO> Research: +353 1 6148997 Institutional Equity Sales: +353 1 6792816 Davy Research

John O'Reilly john.o'[email protected] / +353 1 6148915

Jack Gorman [email protected] / +353 1 6148926

Aiden O' Donnell [email protected] / +353 1 6724211

Barry Gallagher [email protected] / +353 1 6149194

Beverages outperform again in past week, extending the sector's market-leading performance year-to-date

• Beverages were the best performing sector in European markets in the past week (+2%), as strong results from large-cap Diageo underlined the recent robust operating performances across the sector. The FTSE E300 was -0.5% in the past week.

• Beverages are the best-performing European sector year-to-date. Food producers are +10% year-to-date, also outperforming the wider market (+8.4%).

• In contrast, the beverage sector performed poorly in the US in the past week. The S&P 500 was flat on the week, but beverages were down -1.5% while food products marginally outperformed (+0.3%).

• Year-to-date, beverages (+8.6%) and food products (+5%) are underperforming the overall market (+12.3%). Changing perception of what defines America's middle class

• In this week's commentary, we review the findings of a recent report by the Pew Research Center ('Public says a secure job is the ticket to the middle class ') and discuss the takeouts for consumer-facing companies. Focus on Britvic and Total Produce; forthcoming newsflow

• Our stock focus this week is on Britvic and Total Produce.

• Results season is starting to wind down. Total Produce (September 4th) and Richemont (September 5th) are of most interest this week.

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report.

J&E Davy, trading as Davy is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. Davy is a member of the Irish Stock Exchange, the London Stock Exchange and Euronext. For business in the UK, Davy is authorised by the Central Bank of Ireland and subject to limited regulation by the Financial Services Authority. Details about the extent of our regulation by the Financial Services Authority are available from us on request. All prices are as of close of business August 31st unless otherwise indicated. All authors are Research Analysts unless otherwise stated. For the attention of US clients of Davy Securities, this third-party research report has been produced by our affiliate, J&E Davy.

Table of contents

"Squeezed middle" a big challenge for consumer-facing companies 2

Stock focus: Britvic and Total Produce 4

Sector review 6

Company analysis 13

Important disclosures 37

Ratings

ARYZTA Outperform 14/06/2010 Previously Neutral 30/06/2009 Associated British Foods Outperform 05/07/2011 Previously Neutral 03/11/2010 Britvic Neutral 25/02/2011 Previously Outperform 27/09/2010 C&C Outperform 30/06/2009 Carlsberg Neutral 06/01/2010 Previously Outperform 30/06/2009 Continental Farmers Group Outperform 05/08/2011 CSM Neutral 29/04/2011 Previously Outperform 01/09/2010 Diageo Outperform 11/01/2010 Donegal Creameries Outperform 17/09/2010 Previously Underperform 30/06/2009 Frutarom Outperform 21/06/2012 Fyffes Outperform 27/01/2011 Previously Neutral 18/02/2010 Givaudan Neutral 21/06/2012 Glanbia Outperform 11/05/2010 Greencore Group Neutral 11/02/2010 Previously Underperform 30/06/2009 Heineken Underperform 08/06/2010 Previously Neutral 14/08/2009 Kerry Group Outperform 30/06/2009 Naturex Neutral 21/06/2012 Origin Enterprises Outperform 30/06/2009 Pernod Ricard Outperform 22/03/2011 Previously Neutral 27/04/2010 Robertet Neutral 21/06/2012 Südzucker Outperform 15/02/2010 Symrise Outperform 21/06/2012 Tate & Lyle Neutral 04/04/2011 Previously Underperfrom 13/08/2010 Total Produce Outperform 14/05/2010 Previously Neutral 30/06/2009

For full details of current and previous ratings see www.davy.ie/ratings

mailto:john.o'[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]



Research Report: Davy on Food and Beverages September 4th, 2012

2 Davy Research

"Squeezed middle" a big challenge for consumer-facing companies The modern era of consumerism — the thought system that encourages the consumption of goods and services in ever greater quantities — could not be as it is without the continual expansion of the middle class. If the 20th century was marked by one phenomenon, it was the swelling of the middle class demographic. What may be happening to the middle class therefore, actually or in terms of perception, is of great significance. If it is compressing and if this continues, the behavioural change that will follow will impact negatively on consumer spending. There is no all-encompassing, single definition of 'middle class'. It can be defined by income, occupation or relative social standing (as between 'lower' and 'upper' classes). But as well as objective measurements, there is also individual, subjective measurement based on the possessions considered necessary for middle class status like home ownership, a secure job, health insurance or a college education. In a report issued on August 31st ('Public says a secure job is the ticket to the middle class'), the Pew Research Center1 highlights a substantial change in the ranking of possessions considered a pre-requisite of being middle class over the past two decades. It notes that 20 years ago, home ownership was essential to being considered middle class — 70% of Americans agreed to this. This was revealed in a 1991 Time/CNN/ Yankelovich survey. Other possessions considered essential to being middle class (and the percentage of Americans agreeing) at that time were: two or more cars (48%); a college education (46%); stocks, bonds or other investments (41%); and a white-collar job (33%). Pew notes that there are wording differences between its just completed survey and the previous one. While the latter asked about the significance of a white-collar job, Pew asked about a secure job. These wording differences are significant not because of the words themselves but because the circumstances in which the questions were asked are very different — circumstance, actual and anticipated, informs perception. The context for the Pew survey is persistently high unemployment over the past four years and a now widely acknowledged longer-term decline in the share of the working-age public that is employed. For example in 2011, the male employment-to-population ratio was, at 71%, 10 percentage points lower than a decade previously and was at its lowest level since 1951 (89%) when the data were first collated by the US Bureau of Labour Statistics. In addition, median income has been declining. In an earlier report (August 22nd, 2012), Pew noted that since 2000, the middle class has shrunk in size, fallen backward in income (measured as overall mean family income) and wealth, and shed some — but by no means all — of its characteristic faith in the future.

1 The Pew Research Center is a non-partisan fact tank that provides information on the issues, attitudes and trends shaping America and the world. The centre conducts public opinion polling, demographic studies, media content analysis and other empirical social science research. It does not take positions on policy issues.


3 Davy Research

In light of the unemployment and income trend, it is hardly surprising that in the Pew survey, 86% of respondents said that having a secure job was necessary to be considered middle class. Other possessions believed to be necessary (and the percentage of respondents agreeing to this) were: health insurance (66%); home ownership (45%); college education (37%); and stocks, bonds and other investments (28%). Owning two or more cars is no longer considered a key qualifying possession in the Pew survey and when compared with the survey of two decades ago, there has been a radical change in the ranking of a secure job and home ownership while health insurance — which for many Americans comes through one's job — now features as "an essential ticket to a middle class life". As noted at the outset, the consumerism of the 20th century needed a burgeoning and prosperous middle class. If, as has been observed by many commentators, we are observing a secular squeeze on the middle class demographic, then it is improbable that the consumer expenditure trends in western societies of recent decades will remain unaltered. Part of the evolution of the middle class since the 1950s was the increase in the employment of women. In the US, the female employment-to-population ratio in 1950 was 36%. It rose linearly until 2001 when it reached 68%. But the decade since 2001, according to Pew, was the first in the modern era when women aged 16 to 64 have not made gains in employment rates over the prior decade. In 2011, the level was 62%. To what extent current trends in consumption (i.e. depressed food volume sales) are correlated with the change in the middle class demographic is unknown. But survey results like those of Pew do provide a context in which to measure and assess this. The "squeezed middle" provides a big challenge for consumer-facing companies.

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Stock focus: Britvic

• Britvic has had a difficult FY 2012 to date, with bad summer weather compounded by a recall of the key Fruit Shoot brand in the UK and some exports markets following problems with the new cap design.

• At the time of the second profit warning of the year in July, Britvic announced that it now expects the recall to cost £15-25m at the PBT line across the current and next financial year. The anticipated impact in the year to end-September 2012 is estimated at £10-18m with the remainder in 2013.

• Britvic has decided to re-supply customers with an alternative market-proven sports cap in the short term. If this re-stock has gone to plan, Fruit Shoot should be on shelves in limited supply now. However, the brand will not be back to full historic volume levels for six months.

• The lower profitability this year has called into question Britvic's ability to maintain its traditional dividend payout ratio. In November, the board will have visibility on FY 2012 preliminaries as well as two months' trading of FY 2013. At that point, it will make a call on whether the fruit shoot effects are one-offs or not. If they are, we are likely to see a dividend broadly in line with the progressive high payout ratios of recent years (c.50%). Aside from Fruit Shoot, there have been some bright points in the business recently. The Pepsi relationship in the UK remains excellent, and Pepsi is continuing to take share in this market. In addition, the franchise business in the US is starting to develop, even if the profit contributions will continue to be immaterial in the short term.

• Our stance on Britvic is 'Neutral'. The stock is well supported by a dividend yield of c.5.5% but the upside is constrained by the difficult trading conditions in core markets and persistent input cost pressures. Britvic trades on a P/E of 10.3x, a c.35% discount to the wider beverage sector.

Britvic share price fluctuations since 2005 IPO

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

Dec

05

Jun

06

Dec

06

Jun

07

Dec

07

Jun

08

Dec

08

Jun

09

Dec

09

Jun

10

Dec

10

Jun

11

Dec

11

Jun

12

Dec

12

IMS: 1st profit warning

IMS: 2nd profit warning

Permira bid spec

Buys C&C Irish Soft Drinks

Permira exits stock

Period of market share gains, benign input cost pressures.

carbonates strong

Buys French

11F input guidance

5-6% IMS: 5-6% maintained

IMS:3rd profit warning input guidance 9-11%

Weak trading GB & Ireland

H1: Guides mkt to lower end of range

Fruitshoot £1-5m recall

Product recall guidance £15-25m + 4th trading profit

warning

Source: Factset; Davy

12-month forward P/E — beverage sector

17.0 x

10.3 x12.0 x 12.5 x 12.4 x

16.4 x14.3 x

15.9 x

23.9 x

17.6 x16.4 x 16.4 x

17.3 x16.1 x

10.5 x

16.0 x

0x

5x

10x

15x

20x

25x

30x

ABI

Britv

ic

C&

C

Car

lsbe

rg

CC

E

Cam

pari

Dia

geo

Hei

neke

n

Pern

od

Rem

y

SABM

iller

Euro

pean

Lux

ury

Goo

ds

Glo

bal B

rew

ers

Glo

bal S

pirit

s

Stox

x 60

0 F&

B

FTSE

E30

0

Source: Factset

12-month forward EV/EBITDA — beverage sector

9.7x

8.2x

9.9x

12.6x

8.1x

12.1x

15.5x

12.8x

7.0x 7.7x

7.0x

0x

2x

4x

6x

8x

10x

12x

14x

16x

18x

ABI

Britv

ic

C&

C

Car

lsbe

rg

CC

E

Cam

pari

Dia

geo

Hei

neke

n

Pern

od

Rem

y

SABM

iller

Source: Factset

12-month forward dividend yield % — beverage sector

2.5%

5.5%

2.8%

1.3%

2.3%

1.4%

2.8%

2.2% 2.2%

1.7%

2.4%2.1%

2.4% 2.3%

3.1%

4.3%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

ABI

Britv

ic

C&

C

Car

lsbe

rg

CC

E

Cam

pari

Dia

geo

Hei

neke

n

Pern

od

Rem

y

SABM

iller

Euro

pean

Lux

ury

Goo

ds

Glo

bal B

rew

ers

Glo

bal S

pirit

s

Stox

x 60

0 F&

B

FTSE

E30

0

Source: Factset

12-month forward EV/FCF % — beverage sector

5.8%5.0%

9.9%

6.7%

4.8% 5.1%4.7%

6.1%

4.0%3.6%

4.5%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

ABI

Britv

ic

C&

C

Car

lsbe

rg

CC

E

Cam

pari

Dia

geo

Hei

neke

n

Pern

od

Rem

y

SABM

iller

Source: Factset

Earning growth CAGR 2011-2014f — beverage sector

12.8%

2.6%

5.1%

12.4%

7.8%

11.5% 11.4%9.7%

14.0%

25.4%

11.7%

14.6%

12.1%13.7%

10.3%8.6%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

ABI

Britv

ic

C&

C

Car

lsbe

rg

CC

E

Cam

pari

Dia

geo

Hei

neke

n

Pern

od

Rem

y

SABM

iller

Euro

pean

Lux

ury

Goo

ds

Glo

bal B

rew

ers

Glo

bal S

pirit

s

Stox

x 60

0 F&

B

FTSE

E30

0

Source: Factset

5 Davy Research


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Stock focus: Total Produce

• Total Produce has traded in a tight range between 39c and 45c for most of the last two years. It briefly moved up towards 50c in early 2012 but failed to maintain that level. It has now built a very solid base and should it take out 45c, it can easily move towards 50c and ultimately higher.

• Despite the fact that defensive names have been in vogue for most of 2012, Total Produce has failed to ride this wave. It has underperformed the market this year, which is a surprise as it possesses many of the defensive qualities that investors were looking for.

• At less than 6x on a P/E basis, its valuation is below its long-term and recent average. The stock has de-rated in an absolute and relative sense over the past 18 months. This is despite earnings increasing consistently.

• Revenues have grown consistently on an annual basis since the de-merger. This is encouraging given the difficulties at a macro level since 2007. Profits have followed a similar trend with management always focused on margin delivery.

• One of the reasons for Total Produce's consistency is its broad product and geographic spread. It has leading positions in many key products and markets in Europe.

Total Produce — share price performance

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Jul 06 Jul 07 Jul 08 Jul 09 Jul 10 Jul 11 Jul 12 Source: Datastream

Total Produce — share price relative to the market

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

Jul 06 Jul 07 Jul 08 Jul 09 Jul 10 Jul 11 Jul 12 Source: Datastream

Total Produce — Forward P/E

2x

4x

6x

8x

10x

12x

14x

16x

Dec 06 Jun 07 Dec 07 Jun 08 Dec 08 Jun 09 Dec 09 Jun 10 Dec 10 Jun 11 Dec 11 Jun 12

Source: Factset

Total Produce — revenue growth

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

3000000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Group Fresh Produce Consumer Foods Source: Davy

Total Produce — Forward P/E relative to E300 index

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

Dec 06 Jun 07 Dec 07 Jun 08 Dec 08 Jun 09 Dec 09 Jun 10 Dec 10 Jun 11 Dec 11 Jun 12

Source: Factset

Total Produce — product mix

Stone 16%

Banana14%

Veg/Potato13%Salad

11%

Other10%

Citrus9%

Deciduous9%

Tomato9%

Grape4%

Exotics3%

Pineapple2%

Source: Company Accounts

S E C T O R R E V I E W

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Food and beverage Newsflow

A U G U S T 3 0 T H

Pernod Ricard: Profit a touch behind consensus; succession plans in place

FACTS: Pernod Ricard has reported (August 30th) full-year results to end-June 2012. ANALYSIS: Pernod reported sales of €8,215m (Davy: €8,179m) with organic growth of 8% (Davy: 7.4%). Profit from recurring operations was €2,114m (Davy: €2,128m) with organic growth of 9.2% (Davy: 10.0%). Pernod's guidance for organic profit growth for the FY was "close to 8%" so it beats its target but consensus had expected 9.6%, so it's a touch behind that. As is customary, Pernod will provide guidance at its Q1 results, but it did say that it is confident in its ability to deliver solid growth this year. This assumes a slowdown in the pace of global economic growth in mature as well as emerging markets, ongoing difficult situation in Western Europe (impact of debt and public deficit reduction measures), continued good growth in the US and strong growth in emerging markets. A number of board changes were announced following the passing of former CEO and chairman Patrick Ricard. Alex Ricard is to succeed the current CEO, Pierre Pringuet, in January 2015. He is appointed deputy CEO and COO. He was also co-opted as a director to replace Patrick Ricard. He joined the group in 2003 and was appointed CEO of Irish Distillers in 2008. In 2011, he joined the group general management as managing director in charge of the distribution network. Daniele Ricard is appointed chairman of the board of directors, and Pierre Pringuet is appointed vice-chairman of the board and will continue to act as CEO (until 2015). EPS was 4.53c (Davy: 4.62c). Net debt was €9,363m, a decrease of €385m before translation adjustments (a similar decrease to last year). Net debt-to-EBITDA was 3.8x compared to 4.4x, triggering a further reduction of 15bps in its interest rate. Overall operating margin was 25.7%, up 75 bps. Gross margin rose 8%, expanding to 61.4%, up 111bps. Advertising and promotion (A&P) investment as a percentage of sales increased slightly to 19.1%, with an 11% increase in investment in emerging markets and a -2% decline in European spend. Structure costs as a percentage of sales increased in line with sales, +8%, with spend very much skewed to emerging markets (+63%) whereas structure cost increased below inflation in Western Europe. Emerging markets (39% of group profit) recorded FY sales growth of 17%. Mature market grew sales 2%. Pernod's top-14 brands (60% of group sales) grew 10% in value, reflecting favourable price/mix of six. Thirteen out of the 14 brands reported growth (Ricard declined as it was affected by the duty increase in France). The following brands showed the strongest growth: Martell (25%), Royal Salute (23%), The Glenlivet (19%) and Jameson (18%). Premium brands represented 73% of sales, compared to 71% in the previous year. Q4 organic sales grew rose 4% (Davy: 3.4%). Technical effects from the impact in France from distributor de-stocking continued into Q4. Excluding these technical effects, Q4 growth was +7%, in line with the underlying trend in the year.

Divisionally, Q4 organic sales growth was: Asia +14% (Davy: +16%); Americas +9% (Davy: +7%); Europe 0% (Davy: +2%) ; and France -25% (Davy: -33%). Asia/RoW (39% of group profit), with FY organic sales growth of +15% (Davy: 15.5%) and operating profit growth of 21% (Davy: 22.9%) remained the driving force for group growth. This was primarily due to Asia, particularly China, India, Vietnam, Taiwan and duty-free markets. Americas (29% of group profit) recorded organic sales growth of +6% (Davy: 5.3%) and operating profit growth of 4% (Davy: 4.1%). In the US, sales growth accelerated to 5%, driven by the continued success of Jameson. Absolut did better in the second half in the US. Brazil showed strong growth (+13%) with the top-14 up 26%. Mexico sales declined (-12%) due to the overhaul of the operating model there. Europe (23% of group profit) recorded organic sales growth of +2% (Davy: 4.3%) and operating profit growth of 4% (Davy: 1.5%). In Eastern Europe, sales growth accelerated to 16% (9% in the previous year). Western Europe showed a slight decline (-1%) over the 12 months. This was primarily attributable to Spain (-4%), the UK (-4%), Greece (-13%) and Italy (-13%). France (9% of group profit) saw organic sales growth of -1% (Davy: -2.8%) following the excise duty hike (14% on average) in January. Operating profit growth was down -3% (Davy: -4.5%). DAVY VIEW: We continue to believe that Pernod can deliver growth in the top tier of the consumer sector. Faster growth in its top-14 brands (primarily Cognac, Scotch and Irish) will improve sales mix, cash-flow and operating leverage. Pernod’s model of investing disproportionately in its top-14 brands and cementing leading positions in faster-growing emerging markets (China and India in particular) is driving its high-single-digit to double-digit organic operating profit growth model. We reiterate our 'Outperform' stance. Price rating: Outperform (22/03/11; previously Neutral, issued 27/04/10).

A U G U S T 2 9 T H

Glanbia: Strong H1 led by Global Nutritionals

FACTS: Glanbia has released (August 29th) its first-half results. It notes a solid start to the financial year and as a result, it is raising its full-year outlook to 8-10% growth on a constant currency basis (previously 5-7%). Our own current forecast is for FY EPS growth of 9.4% on a reported basis. Separately, the company has also outlined plans to create a strategic dairy process joint venture in association with the Glanbia Co-operative Society. ANALYSIS: On a constant currency basis, revenues and profits (EBITA) for the group (including JVs) increased by 1.1% and 1.5% respectively. Total group EBITA margin increased by 10bps. The US Cheese and Nutritionals division grew revenues and profits (EBIT) by an impressive 8.6% and 18.4% respectively year-on-year. This resulted in a margin increase of 10.2%, a 90bps improvement

on the previous year. The revenue growth was split 4.1% volume and 4.5% price/mix. Ongoing efficiency measures in US cheese enabled the business to generate a similar EBIT out-turn to last year despite lower revenues. Global Nutritionals performed exceptionally well in the period, accounting as expected for almost all of the underlying EBIT growth in the group. The result was achieved against a backdrop of higher raw material costs, most notably whey. This is a benefit for the Ingredients Technologies division — a seller of value-added whey solutions — but a challenge for the Performance Nutrition division. The company expects some easing in whey costs in Q4 as new supplies come on-stream and this will be welcomed as the company notes that price elasticity appears to creeping into the segment. However, the overall outlook for Global Nutritionals is positive and a strong year-on-year performance is expected. Dairy Ireland failed to repeat the very strong out-turn of H1 2011. Operating profit fell 14.5% as the company faced a very challenging environment especially in its Dairy Ingredients Ireland segment. The lag between falling selling prices and raw material input cost reductions impacted margins. This out-turn is as expected. The severe drought that is impacting the US currently may put upward pressure on global prices in the second half but it is perhaps too early to build this into assumptions. Overall for the division, which includes Consumer Products and Agri, revenues fell 4.7%. Profits are forecast to be lower year-on-year. Operating profit at the JVs and associates fell by 30% year-on-year on a constant currency basis. As with Dairy Ireland, this part of the business faces a difficult comparator given the strong market dynamic that existed in the cheese market in H1 2011. The H1 2012 out-turn is slightly ahead of the three-year average. The full-year performance is expected to be modestly reduced on 2011. The board is recommending a 10% increase in the dividend to 3.66c per share. Net debt at the half-year decreased slightly year-on-year to €561m. This number is higher than the year-end figure, reflecting the seasonal working capital requirements. DAVY VIEW: These results will be overshadowed by the announcement around the Dairy Ingredients Ireland division. However, this is a very strong set of numbers. The increase in guidance should be taken positively, especially given that the group is experiencing significant raw material pressure in its Global Nutritionals division as well as challenges in Dairy Ireland. Revenue and profit growth is very impressive within Global Nutritionals and notwithstanding the fact that raw materials are an issue in the short term, the underlying momentum in this portion of the business is strong and the trend towards healthier living that underpins much of the demand story looks to have no signs of reversing in the medium term. Price rating: Outperform (30/06/09).


7 Davy Research

Food and beverage Food

S H A R E P R I C E A N D P E R F O R M A N C E Price 12 Month Mkt. Cap Change % (€) Rel to E300 sector % Pr/Bk Debt/EBITDA Local High Low €m Wk 1 Mth YTD Wk 1 Mth YTD 2011 2011 2012

I N G R E D I E N T S Kerry Group (KYG ID) 3809 3900 2485 6691 1.0 3.1 34.7 2.3 4.2 23.0 3.62 2.1 1.7 Frutarom (FRUT IT) 918 987 797 418 2.4 0.7 5.6 3.7 1.8 -3.6 1.34 1.3 1.2 Givaudan (GIVN VX) 90100 96300 70350 6927 -0.3 -5.2 1.9 1.0 -4.2 -7.0 2.36 1.9 1.6 Naturex (NRX FP) 5300 5500 4300 369 4.7 15.2 2.1 6.1 16.5 -6.8 1.73 1.7 2.0 Robertet (RBT FP) 12200 12600 10820 259 -0.8 1.5 1.7 0.4 2.6 -7.2 1.33 1.0 0.5 Symrise (SY1 GY) 2692 2692 1643 3181 2.0 5.3 30.5 3.2 6.4 19.2 3.48 1.5 1.2 CHR Hansen (CHR DC) 17680 17840 11150 3277 2.0 2.2 41.3 3.3 3.3 29.0 5.06 1.7 1.5 IFF (IFF US) 6052 6301 5131 3920 -1.4 6.2 19.0 -0.1 7.4 8.6 4.41 1.5 1.3 McCormick (MKC US) 6144 6169 4493 6482 0.0 -1.3 25.6 1.3 -0.2 14.6 5.10 1.9 1.4 Sensient Tech (SXT US) 3585 4092 3155 1423 -1.4 -1.1 -2.5 -0.1 0.0 -11.0 N/A 1.3 1.4 Ingredients (12) 2145 2181 1599 33050 0.4 0.7 17.5 1.6 1.7 7.3 3.37 1.8 1.5

D A I R Y P R O C E S S I N G Donegal Creameries (DCP ID) 330 390 300 33 -2.6 0.9 6.3 -1.4 2.0 -2.9 0.66 415.2 2.3 Glanbia (GLB ID) 632 638 430 1861 6.9 3.6 36.7 8.3 4.7 24.8 3.60 2.2 1.7 Dairy Crest (DCG LN) 342 355 290 575 -0.6 0.3 7.3 0.6 1.4 -2.1 1.66 2.4 2.5 Danone (BN FP) 4955 5470 4275 32105 -2.9 0.1 2.0 -1.7 1.2 -6.9 2.45 2.0 1.7 Koninklijke DSM (DSM NA) 3729 4414 3054 6764 -2.4 -6.9 4.0 -1.2 -5.9 -5.0 1.06 0.2 0.8 Nestle SA (NESN VX) 5935 6105 4798 159351 -1.6 -1.2 11.2 -0.3 -0.1 1.5 3.34 0.9 0.7 Saputo (SAP CN) 4156 4617 3617 6637 -5.1 -3.2 13.6 -3.9 -2.2 3.7 4.04 0.5 0.3 Dairy processing (13) 2461 2528 1995 216478 -1.8 -0.8 10.3 -0.5 0.3 0.7 2.82 1.1 1.0

F R U I T D I S T R I B U T I O N Fyffes (FFY ID) 47 47 36 140 4.0 4.7 30.5 5.3 5.8 19.1 1.03 0.7 0.4 Total Produce (TOT ID) 41 50 35 135 -4.4 3.8 10.8 -3.2 4.9 1.2 0.76 1.7 1.3 Chiquita (CQB US) 600 1037 466 219 -2.2 13.3 -25.9 -0.9 14.5 -32.3 N/A N/A N/AFDP (FDP US) 2470 2672 2208 1139 2.0 -1.4 1.8 3.3 -0.3 -7.1 0.87 N/A N/AFruit distribution (4) 4069 4293 3663 1633 1.0 1.2 -0.7 2.3 2.3 -9.3 0.87 0.2 0.2

S P E C I A L I T Y B A K I N G ARYZTA (YZA ID) 3845 4060 3139 3385 0.5 -4.7 2.6 1.7 -3.7 -6.4 1.72 2.2 1.8 Canada Bread (CBY CN) 4405 4988 4200 902 0.4 1.3 8.2 1.6 2.4 -1.3 N/A N/A N/ACSM NV (CSM NA) 1340 1567 925 977 0.3 10.2 11.0 1.6 11.4 1.3 0.94 3.0 2.9 Panera Bread (PNRA US) 15490 16471 10117 3651 0.0 -3.8 12.8 1.3 -2.7 3.0 7.07 -0.7 -0.9 Ralcorp Holdings (RAH US) 7096 7671 5939 3118 0.8 16.3 0.8 2.1 17.6 -7.9 1.50 2.6 2.8 Speciality baking (6) 6768 6850 5278 12424 0.3 2.3 6.4 1.6 3.4 -2.9 1.98 1.9 1.6

F O O D M A N U F A C T U R E R S Greencore Group (GNC LN) 79 84 49 390 -1.4 3.9 61.3 -0.2 5.0 47.3 1.14 3.7 3.0 Associated British Foods (ABF LN) 1324 1332 1038 13221 -0.6 4.4 26.1 0.7 5.6 15.1 1.82 1.1 0.9 Cranswick (CWK LN) 834 858 589 506 -1.0 -3.5 18.4 0.3 -2.5 8.1 1.62 0.4 0.3 Premier Foods (PFD LN) 59 180 33 177 -11.2 -19.6 6.1 -10.1 -18.7 -3.1 0.24 4.6 5.7 UK food manufacturers (3) 1285 1294 931 13904 -0.7 3.7 25.5 0.5 4.8 14.6 1.67 1.5 1.5 Conagra Foods (CAG US) 2511 2718 2299 8139 0.5 -0.5 -2.0 1.8 0.6 -10.5 2.29 1.7 1.5 General Mills (GIS US) 3933 4105 3689 20281 0.2 -0.6 0.3 1.5 0.5 -8.4 3.74 2.1 2.2 PZ Cussons (PZC LN) 304 374 285 1644 -0.5 -1.9 -8.5 0.8 -0.9 -16.4 2.40 0.2 -0.1 Unilever NV (UNIA NA) 2773 2879 2208 95099 -0.2 -1.9 4.4 1.1 -0.8 -4.7 5.47 1.2 1.0 Food manufacturers (10) 1500 1525 1235 157967 0.0 -0.9 3.2 1.3 0.2 -5.8 2.90 1.5 1.4

A G R I B U S I N E S S A N D P R I M A R Y P R O D U C E R S Continental Farmers Group (CFGP ID) 30 36 24 49 13.2 15.4 7.1 14.6 16.6 -2.2 0.70 -0.5 0.3 Origin Enterprises (OGN ID) 386 400 300 533 1.6 5.8 26.6 2.9 6.9 15.6 2.36 1.3 0.9 Austevoll (AUSS NO) 2480 2670 1870 689 4.2 0.8 25.4 5.5 1.9 14.5 0.63 1.6 2.1 Carrs Milling (CRM LN) 935 950 724 105 1.0 4.9 24.8 2.2 6.0 13.9 1.46 -0.3 0.0 K+S (SDF GY) 3890 4768 3040 7445 -2.3 -3.3 11.4 -1.1 -2.2 1.7 2.42 0.2 0.1 Nutreco (NUO NA) 5812 5899 4488 2041 -0.6 -0.4 14.3 0.7 0.7 4.4 2.31 0.9 0.8 Agribusiness (9) 2757 2873 2080 36169 -2.7 -3.0 16.9 -1.5 -2.0 6.7 3.07 0.5 0.4

S W E E T E N E R S Associated British Foods (ABF LN) 1324 1332 1038 13221 -0.6 4.4 26.1 0.7 5.6 15.1 1.82 1.1 0.9 ADM (ADM US) 2675 3350 2416 14005 0.9 0.3 -3.6 2.1 1.4 -12.0 0.93 1.9 1.9 Agrana Beteiligungs (AGR AV) 9000 9185 7230 1278 1.7 -1.1 12.5 3.0 0.0 2.7 1.20 1.5 1.1 Ingredion Inc (INGR US) 5383 5819 3774 3260 -1.4 1.4 5.5 -0.2 2.5 -3.7 1.96 1.9 1.6 Illovo Sugar (ILV SJ) 3010 3015 2295 1312 -0.7 0.5 21.4 0.6 1.5 10.8 2.49 0.5 0.3 Südzucker (SZU GY) 2666 2867 1923 5048 1.3 -5.0 8.2 2.5 -4.0 -1.3 1.53 0.8 0.7 Tate & Lyle (TATE LN) 656 721 570 3857 0.9 -1.6 -1.9 2.2 -0.5 -10.4 2.97 1.1 0.9 Tongaat Hulett (TON SJ) 13974 14040 8949 1391 2.2 -1.6 37.0 3.5 -0.5 25.0 2.19 2.0 1.4 Sweeteners (8) 2204 2253 1777 43372 0.3 0.6 8.5 1.6 1.7 -0.9 1.40 1.5 1.3 FTSE E300 Food Producers (E3FOOD) 1889 1933 1516 -1.2 -1.1 9.5


8 Davy Research

Food and beverage Food

V A L U A T I O N EPS (c) EPS Gth % Div Yield % Div Cover EV/EBITDA P/E 2011 2012 2013 11-13 2011 2012 2011 2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 2013

I N G R E D I E N T S Kerry Group (KYG ID) 213 235 256 20.2 0.8 0.9 6.6 13.2 11.3 10.3 17.8 16.2 14.9 Frutarom (FRUT IT) 73 93 102 39.7 0.6 0.8 12.4 7.8 6.4 5.7 12.5 9.9 9.0 Givaudan (GIVN VX) 4953 5386 6204 25.3 2.4 2.6 2.3 12.9 12.0 9.9 18.2 16.7 14.5 Naturex (NRX FP) 247 267 296 19.6 0.2 0.2 24.7 12.0 9.8 8.8 21.4 19.9 17.9 Robertet (RBT FP) 1035 1133 1177 13.7 2.2 2.3 3.8 6.5 5.3 4.9 11.8 10.8 10.4 Symrise (SY1 GY) 159 179 192 21.0 2.3 2.5 2.6 11.5 10.4 9.6 17.0 15.1 14.0 CHR Hansen (CHR DC) 617 703 808 31.0 2.0 2.0 1.7 18.0 15.6 14.0 28.6 25.2 21.9 IFF (IFF US) 374 399 433 15.6 1.9 2.1 3.2 10.4 10.0 9.0 16.2 15.2 14.0 McCormick (MKC US) 279 305 335 20.1 1.8 2.0 2.5 14.6 12.9 11.9 22.0 20.1 18.3 Sensient Tech (SXT US) 248 252 270 8.9 2.3 2.4 3.0 8.8 8.6 7.9 14.5 14.2 13.3 Ingredients (12) 1.8 2.0 2.9 12.5 11.4 10.2 18.4 17.0 15.4

D A I R Y P R O C E S S I N G Donegal Creameries (DCP ID) -76 49 54 N/A 4.8 4.8 N/A N/A 0.9 0.5 N/A 6.7 6.1 Glanbia (GLB ID) 46 51 54 16.1 1.3 1.4 5.6 10.6 9.3 8.5 13.6 12.5 11.7 Dairy Crest (DCG LN) 49 47 47 -4.0 6.0 6.2 2.4 5.6 5.9 5.6 7.1 7.3 7.3 Danone (BN FP) 289 308 340 17.6 2.8 3.0 2.1 11.2 10.5 9.5 17.1 16.1 14.6 Koninklijke DSM (DSM NA) 364 308 368 1.0 3.9 4.0 2.5 5.4 6.5 5.5 10.2 12.1 10.1 Nestle SA (NESN VX) 307 343 368 19.7 3.3 3.5 1.6 13.2 11.7 11.0 19.3 17.3 16.1 Saputo (SAP CN) 247 260 287 16.2 0.0 0.0 N/A 10.4 10.0 9.4 16.8 16.0 14.5 Dairy processing (13) 3.2 3.4 1.8 11.7 10.7 9.9 18.2 16.6 15.3

F R U I T D I S T R I B U T I O N Fyffes (FFY ID) 6 8 7 18.7 4.1 5.2 3.1 4.4 3.4 3.4 7.8 6.2 6.5 Total Produce (TOT ID) 7 8 8 10.0 4.6 4.8 3.8 4.7 4.0 3.6 5.7 5.4 5.1 Chiquita (CQB US) 83 -17 67 -19.9 0.0 0.0 N/A 2.0 3.1 2.1 7.2 N/A 9.0 FDP (FDP US) 182 239 253 39.0 0.6 1.6 12.1 7.1 6.2 5.7 13.6 10.3 9.8 Fruit distribution (4) 1.4 2.3 8.2 4.9 4.9 4.2 10.4 8.9 8.7

S P E C I A L I T Y B A K I N G ARYZTA (YZA ID) 310 338 380 22.7 1.2 1.3 6.7 9.1 8.7 7.7 12.4 11.4 10.1 Canada Bread (CBY CN) 343 322 369 7.6 0.0 0.0 N/A 7.1 6.8 6.1 12.8 13.7 11.9 CSM NV (CSM NA) -237 98 150 N/A 5.2 5.4 N/A 7.5 7.7 5.9 N/A 13.6 8.9 Panera Bread (PNRA US) 455 578 680 49.5 0.0 0.0 N/A 14.3 11.6 9.6 34.0 26.8 22.8 Ralcorp Holdings (RAH US) 522 312 388 -25.7 0.0 0.0 N/A 7.5 9.5 8.2 13.6 22.7 18.3 Speciality baking (6) 2.1 2.2 5.5 9.0 9.1 7.7 23.9 17.0 14.2

F O O D M A N U F A C T U R E R S Greencore Group (GNC LN) 10 11 13 26.3 6.8 5.4 1.9 6.9 6.2 5.8 7.6 6.9 6.0 Associated British Foods (ABF LN) 74 86 93 26.0 1.9 2.0 3.0 9.9 8.7 8.3 17.9 15.3 14.2 Cranswick (CWK LN) 72 77 80 11.3 3.4 3.6 2.5 7.0 6.7 6.3 11.6 10.9 10.4 Premier Foods (PFD LN) 18 28 33 83.1 0.0 0.0 N/A 5.3 6.4 5.6 3.3 2.1 1.8 UK food manufacturers (3) 1.9 2.1 3.2 8.9 8.2 7.8 16.6 14.0 12.9 Conagra Foods (CAG US) 184 197 211 14.4 3.7 4.0 2.0 7.7 7.3 6.9 13.6 12.7 11.9 General Mills (GIS US) 256 266 290 13.3 3.1 3.4 2.1 9.8 9.5 9.0 15.4 14.8 13.6 PZ Cussons (PZC LN) 15 16 18 23.6 2.2 2.4 2.2 11.4 10.0 8.7 20.7 19.0 16.8 Unilever NV (UNIA NA) 144 159 175 21.5 3.2 3.4 1.6 13.7 12.4 11.3 19.2 17.4 15.8 Food manufacturers (10) 3.0 3.2 2.1 10.1 9.8 9.3 15.9 15.4 14.1

A G R I B U S I N E S S A N D P R I M A R Y P R O D U C E R S Continental Farmers Group (CFGP ID) 2 3 4 85.7 0.0 0.0 N/A 7.0 5.9 5.1 13.5 9.8 7.3 Origin Enterprises (OGN ID) 40 44 47 16.6 2.4 2.6 4.3 6.9 6.2 5.8 9.6 8.7 8.2 Austevoll (AUSS NO) 393 249 372 -5.3 4.0 4.0 3.9 4.1 5.3 4.0 6.3 10.0 6.7 Carrs Milling (CRM LN) 76 93 97 27.3 2.8 3.1 2.9 5.6 5.0 6.0 12.3 10.1 9.6 K+S (SDF GY) 350 304 348 -0.7 3.3 3.6 2.7 6.3 6.8 6.3 11.1 12.8 11.2 Nutreco (NUO NA) 424 490 525 23.9 3.1 3.7 2.4 8.0 7.2 6.6 13.7 11.9 11.1 Agribusiness (9) 2.7 2.9 2.5 9.2 8.7 7.9 15.0 14.2 13.0

S W E E T E N E R S Associated British Foods (ABF LN) 74 86 93 26.0 1.9 2.0 3.0 9.9 8.7 8.3 17.9 15.3 14.2 ADM (ADM US) 305 225 250 -18.0 2.3 2.6 5.0 6.3 7.6 8.0 8.8 11.9 10.7 Agrana Beteiligungs (AGR AV) 1067 1142 1045 -2.1 3.9 4.0 3.0 5.5 5.1 5.0 8.4 7.9 8.6 Ingredion Inc (INGR US) 468 520 562 20.1 1.2 1.3 7.3 6.8 6.2 5.3 11.5 10.4 9.6 Illovo Sugar (ILV SJ) 133 220 274 106.5 2.2 3.1 2.0 9.2 6.8 5.8 22.7 13.7 11.0 Südzucker (SZU GY) 186 273 224 20.5 2.6 2.7 2.7 7.1 6.2 6.2 14.4 9.8 11.9 Tate & Lyle (TATE LN) 56 57 60 6.2 3.8 4.0 2.3 8.1 7.5 6.9 11.6 11.6 10.9 Tongaat Hulett (TON SJ) 819 1129 1381 68.6 2.1 2.8 2.8 8.5 6.6 5.6 17.1 12.4 10.1 Sweeteners (8) 2.3 2.5 3.6 7.2 7.1 7.0 12.1 12.1 11.5


9 Davy Research

Food and beverage Beverage

S H A R E P R I C E A N D P E R F O R M A N C E Price 12 Month Mkt. Cap Change % (€) Rel to E300 sector % Pr/Bk Debt/EBITDA Local High Low €m Wk 1 Mth YTD Wk 1 Mth YTD 2011 2011 2012

C&C (GCC ID) 361 393 270 1219 1.0 1.0 25.6 -0.5 0.0 -3.3 1.70 -0.5 -1.0 Global Sector Anheuser-Busch InBev (ABI BB) 6678 6678 3627 107270 2.1 4.1 41.2 0.7 3.1 8.7 3.69 2.3 1.9 Carlsberg (CARLB DC) 51300 52000 32220 10508 0.9 4.5 26.4 -0.5 3.5 -2.7 1.19 2.4 2.0 Constellation Brands (STZ US) 3294 3294 1754 4644 0.1 14.2 64.2 -1.3 13.1 26.4 2.56 3.5 3.4 Davide Campari (CPR IM) 547 575 491 3174 -0.1 -2.6 6.2 -1.5 -3.5 -18.2 2.33 1.9 1.6 Diageo (DGE LN) 1725 1743 1188 54532 0.5 0.0 29.3 -0.9 -1.0 -0.5 7.70 2.2 1.7 Heineken (HEIA NA) 4408 4598 3205 25387 -1.2 0.1 23.2 -2.6 -0.9 -5.1 2.64 2.4 2.1 Molson Coors Brewing (TAP US) 4454 4566 3800 6213 0.1 3.0 5.4 -1.3 1.9 -18.9 1.08 0.8 3.2 Pernod Ricard (RI FP) 8567 8879 5788 22729 -2.2 -2.1 19.6 -3.5 -3.1 -8.0 2.10 3.8 3.1 Remy Cointreau (RCO FP) 9081 9744 5043 4507 -1.3 -5.4 46.3 -2.7 -6.3 12.6 4.57 0.8 0.6 SABMiller (SAB LN) 2780 2869 2005 55883 0.0 -0.2 29.3 -1.4 -1.2 -0.5 2.75 3.3 2.5 Beverage (10) 7438 7474 4692 291559 0.6 1.9 31.8 -0.8 0.9 1.5 3.05 2.5 2.1 Britvic plc (BVIC LN) 320 398 260 976 3.0 5.1 4.7 1.5 4.1 -19.4 N/A 2.4 2.7 FTSE E300 Beverages (E3BEVG) 2755 2788 1764 1.4 1.0 29.9

V A L U A T I O N EPS (c) EPS Gth % Div Yield % Div Cover EV/EBITDA P/E 2011 2012 2013 11-13 2011 2012 2011 2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 2013

C&C (GCC ID) 28 28 31 10.3 2.0 2.3 3.8 8.6 7.9 6.9 13.0 13.0 11.8 Global Sector Anheuser-Busch InBev (ABI BB) 308 370 400 29.7 1.8 2.2 2.6 11.3 10.5 9.3 21.7 18.0 16.7 Carlsberg (CARLB DC) 3369 3763 4098 21.6 1.1 1.1 6.1 8.3 7.6 6.8 15.2 13.6 12.5 Constellation Brands (STZ US) 234 198 264 12.9 0.0 0.0 N/A 10.1 10.0 8.6 14.1 16.6 12.5 Davide Campari (CPR IM) 29 32 36 23.4 1.3 1.4 4.1 11.6 10.7 9.6 19.0 17.3 15.4 Diageo (DGE LN) 94 104 116 23.6 2.5 2.7 2.2 13.8 12.4 11.2 18.3 16.5 14.8 Heineken (HEIA NA) 270 280 308 14.4 1.8 2.0 3.4 8.8 8.1 7.4 16.3 15.7 14.3 Molson Coors Brewing (TAP US) 376 390 406 8.0 2.7 3.1 3.1 7.6 9.3 8.6 11.8 11.4 11.0 Pernod Ricard (RI FP) 453 532 635 40.3 1.8 2.0 3.0 13.1 11.4 10.0 18.9 16.1 13.5 Remy Cointreau (RCO FP) 250 356 418 67.1 2.5 1.6 1.1 21.1 16.6 14.2 36.3 25.5 21.7 SABMiller (SAB LN) 137 150 169 23.3 2.1 2.3 2.3 15.9 13.5 11.8 20.3 18.5 16.5 Beverage (10) 2.0 2.2 2.7 11.9 11.0 9.8 19.1 17.0 15.3 Britvic plc (BVIC LN) 33 27 32 -4.1 5.5 3.6 1.9 6.7 7.3 6.6 9.7 12.0 10.1


10 Davy Research

Food and beverage Sector screens

F O O D - L O W P / E S T O C K S ( X ) F O O D - L O W E V / E B I T D A S T O C K S ( X ) 2012 2013 2012 2013Premier Foods 2.1 Premier Foods 1.8 Chiquita 3.1 Chiquita 2.1 Total Produce 5.4 Total Produce 5.1 Fyffes 3.4 Fyffes 3.4 Fyffes 6.2 Greencore Group 6.0 Total Produce 4.0 Total Produce 3.6 Greencore Group 6.9 Fyffes 6.5 Tyson Foods 4.2 Austevoll 4.0 Dairy Crest 7.3 Austevoll 6.7 Carrs Milling 5.0 Parmalat SpA 4.4 Origin Enterprises 8.7 Continental Farmers Group 7.3 Parmalat SpA 5.2 Tyson Foods 4.6 Tyson Foods 8.8 Dairy Crest 7.3 Austevoll 5.3 Robertet 4.9 Continental Farmers Group 9.8 Origin Enterprises 8.2 Robertet 5.3 Emmi 5.1 Frutarom 9.9 CSM NV 8.9 Emmi 5.5 Continental Farmers Group 5.1 Austevoll 10.0 Frutarom 9.0 Dairy Crest 5.9 Koninklijke DSM 5.5

F O O D - H I G H Y I E L D I N G S T O C K S ( % ) F O O D - L O W P R I C E / B O O K ( X ) 2012 2013 2012 2013Dairy Crest 6.2 Dairy Crest 6.4 Premier Foods 0.23 Premier Foods 0.21 CSM NV 5.4 Greencore Group 6.2 Continental Farmers Group 0.65 Continental Farmers Group 0.60 Greencore Group 5.4 Austevoll 5.8 Austevoll 0.73 Austevoll 0.69 Fyffes 5.2 CSM NV 5.7 Total Produce 0.74 Total Produce 0.71 Total Produce 4.8 Total Produce 5.0 FDP 0.81 FDP 0.78 Austevoll 4.0 Fyffes 4.9 Parmalat SpA 0.83 Parmalat SpA 0.81 Koninklijke DSM 4.0 Conagra Foods 4.2 ADM 0.93 Fyffes 0.87 Conagra Foods 4.0 Koninklijke DSM 4.2 Fyffes 0.94 ADM 0.88 Tate & Lyle 4.0 Tate & Lyle 4.0 Tyson Foods 0.96 Tyson Foods 0.90 Nutreco 3.7 Nutreco 3.9 CSM NV 0.98 CSM NV 0.94

F O O D - L O W P E G S T O C K S ( X ) F O O D - S H A R E P R I C E M O M E N T U M ( % ) 2012 2013 1 Month 3 MonthsTyson Foods 0.1 K+S 0.2 Dean Foods 29.9 Austevoll 22.4 K+S 0.2 Koninklijke DSM 0.4 Krispy Kreme 18.4 K+S 20.6 Koninklijke DSM 0.5 Carrs Milling 0.5 Ralcorp Holdings 16.3 Symrise 18.5 Carrs Milling 0.6 Frutarom 0.6 Continental Farmers Group 15.4 Krispy Kreme 15.3 Frutarom 0.7 Nutreco 0.6 Naturex 15.2 Associated British Foods 12.8 Robertet 0.7 Robertet 0.6 Chiquita 13.3 Carrs Milling 12.7 Nutreco 0.7 Fyffes 0.8 Parmalat SpA 12.6 Origin Enterprises 11.9 Fyffes 0.7 Glanbia 0.8 CSM NV 10.2 Continental Farmers Group 11.1 Glanbia 0.8 ARYZTA 0.8 IFF 6.2 Naturex 11.0 ARYZTA 0.9 Panera Bread 0.9 Origin Enterprises 5.8 Dairy Crest 10.2

F O O D - L O W D E B T / E B I T D A ( X ) F O O D - L O W D E B T / M A R K E T C A P ( % ) 2012 2013 2012 2013

Parmalat SpA -2.0 Parmalat SpA -1.8 Parmalat SpA -27.7 Parmalat SpA -28.6 Panera Bread -0.9 Panera Bread -1.1 Panera Bread -7.2 Panera Bread -10.4 PZ Cussons -0.1 PZ Cussons -0.3 PZ Cussons -1.2 PZ Cussons -3.0 Carrs Milling 0.0 Syngenta AG 0.1 Carrs Milling 0.8 Syngenta AG 1.0 K+S 0.1 Saputo 0.2 K+S 1.3 Saputo 1.7 Continental Farmers Group 0.3 Fyffes 0.2 Syngenta AG 3.3 Cranswick 3.7 Syngenta AG 0.3 Cranswick 0.2 Saputo 3.4 Fyffes 3.9 Saputo 0.3 K+S 0.3 Continental Farmers Group 4.6 K+S 4.4 Cranswick 0.3 Robertet 0.3 Cranswick 5.4 Robertet 6.3 Fyffes 0.4 Origin Enterprises 0.5 Nestle SA 6.8 Origin Enterprises 6.4

B E V E R A G E - L O W P / E S T O C K S ( X ) B E V E R A G E - L O W P R I C E / B O O K ( X ) 2012 2013 2012 2013Molson Coors Brewing 11.4 Britvic plc 10.1 Molson Coors Brewing 1.00 Molson Coors Brewing 0.95 Britvic plc 12.0 Molson Coors Brewing 11.0 Carlsberg 1.06 Carlsberg 0.97 C&C 13.0 C&C 11.8 C&C 1.56 C&C 1.43 Carlsberg 13.6 Constellation Brands 12.5 Pernod Ricard 1.93 Pernod Ricard 1.76 Heineken 15.7 Carlsberg 12.5 Davide Campari 2.11 Davide Campari 1.92 Pernod Ricard 16.1 Pernod Ricard 13.5 Heineken 2.33 Constellation Brands 2.00 Diageo 16.5 Heineken 14.3 Constellation Brands 2.38 Heineken 2.08 Constellation Brands 16.6 Diageo 14.8 SABMiller 2.61 SABMiller 2.40 Davide Campari 17.3 Davide Campari 15.4 Anheuser-Busch InBev 3.16 Anheuser-Busch InBev 2.80 Anheuser-Busch InBev 18.0 SABMiller 16.5 Diageo 5.23 Diageo 3.90


11 Davy Research

Beverage charts

U S D I S T I L L E D S P I R I T S V O L U M E S G R O W T H M A T Y O Y ( % ) U S D I S T I L L E D S P I R I T S V O L U M E S G R O W T H Y O Y ( % )

D I A G E O A N D P E R N O D U S S P I R I T S V O L G T H M A T Y O Y ( % ) D I A G E O A N D P E R N O D U S S P I R I T S V O L G T H Y O Y ( % )

T O P S I X P R O D U C E R S V O L G T H M A T Y O Y ( % ) T O P S I X P R O D U C E R S V O L G T H Y O Y ( % )

U S C O N S U M E R S P E N D I N G Y O Y ( % ) U S S A V I N G S R A T E A S A % O F D I S P O S A B L E I N C O M E


12 Davy Research

Beverage charts

L U X U R Y I N D E X ( D J L U X ) R E L S & P 5 0 0 I N D E X C H I N E S E C O G N A C S H I P M E N T S Y O Y ( % )

N O R T H A M E R I C A I A T A R P K Y O Y G R O W T H ( % ) E U R O P E I A T A R P K Y O Y G R O W T H ( % )

E U R O P E A N B E E R C P I Y O Y ( % ) E U R O P E A N M A L T E D B A R L E Y P R I C E S Y O Y ( % )

R U S S I A N I N D U S T R I A L P R O D U C T I O N F O R B E E R Y O Y ( % ) U K R P I O F F - T R A D E B E E R V S R P I X Y O Y ( % )

C O M P A N Y A N A L Y S I S

13 Davy Research

ARYZTA

Analyst: John O'Reilly Xetra: YZA Email: john.o'[email protected] Bloomberg: YZA ID Phone: +353 1 6148915 RIC: ARYN.I Sector: Speciality baking www.aryzta.com

Price (c) Shares (m) Mkt. Cap (€m) E.V. (€m) Mkt. Cap. / EV (%) Mkt. Weight (%) Free Float (%) Daily No. Shares Traded (m) Daily Value Traded (€m) 3845 88.0 3384.6 4661.5 72.6 7.1 98.3 0.254 9.819

SUMMARY ACCOUNTS Jul09 Jul10 Jul11 Jul12F Jul13F I N C O M E S T A T E M E N T ( € M )

Revenue 3220.5 3009.7 3876.9 4068.6 4234.9 EBITDA 340.6 339.9 485.1 514.9 557.7 Depreciation 60.2 66.9 88.4 87.1 88.7 Amortisation of intangibles 46.3 50.7 94.2 99.4 103.3 Operating profit 234.2 222.2 302.5 328.4 365.7 Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 17.5 31.6 19.5 16.9 18.9 PBIT before exceptionals 251.7 253.9 322.0 345.3 384.6 Group net interest -50.7 -51.5 -67.9 -65.1 -56.0 Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total finance costs -50.7 -51.5 -67.9 -65.1 -56.0 Exceptionals -157.2 -4.6 -10.0 -50.0 -50.0 PBT 43.9 197.7 244.0 230.2 278.6 Tax -2.9 -29.6 -15.6 -36.5 -42.8 Minorities (incl. pref. divs.) 13.0 -16.4 -15.8 -16.2 -17.2 Earnings (basic) 54.0 151.7 212.7 177.4 218.6 Average no. of shares (m) - basic 78.4 78.9 82.8 86.3 88.4 Average no. of shares (m) - diluted 78.6 79.4 83.9 86.3 88.4 P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )

EPS Basic 68.9 192.2 256.8 205.6 247.3 EPS Diluted (Adj) 234.7 244.0 310.1 338.3 380.3 Cash EPS (Diluted) 311.2 328.2 415.4 439.2 480.6 Dividend 35.2 37.0 46.5 49.5 52.8 NBV 1672.6 2044.8 2235.8 2287.2 2427.3 NBV (incl. amortisation of intangibles) 1807.0 2243.5 2541.0 2693.3 2940.6 C A S H F L O W ( € M )

EBITDA 340.6 339.9 485.1 514.9 557.7 Change in working capital 27.0 11.5 -27.1 -26.7 -26.0 Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other operating cashflows -57.8 14.8 0.4 -49.8 -49.6 Cash generated from operations 309.8 366.2 458.3 438.4 482.1 Net capital expenditure -79.0 -45.9 -73.8 -150.1 -150.6 Operating cashflow 230.8 320.2 384.5 288.3 331.5 Net interest -51.6 -45.2 -72.1 -80.0 -74.0 Tax -33.4 -30.4 -55.1 -35.5 -41.6 Dividends from associates 23.0 22.4 11.6 18.1 18.6 Dividends to minorities 0.0 -5.8 0.0 -5.6 -5.6 Free cash flow 168.8 261.2 268.9 185.3 228.9 Dividends to shareholders 0.0 -27.9 -30.8 -41.3 -41.7 Acquisitions & investments -137.8 -872.7 -346.0 -92.0 0.0 Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share Issues / (Buybacks) -47.2 115.0 285.1 140.9 0.0 Translation differences -0.9 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other 72.9 -39.2 2.8 -52.9 -5.0 Change in net cash / debt 55.9 -555.8 179.9 139.9 182.2 B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )

Property, plant & equipment 664.5 945.1 939.9 983.2 1026.8 Intangible assets 1498.4 2264.4 2651.0 2581.7 2508.6 Investments in associates / jv's 202.3 183.5 156.2 191.9 191.9 Working capital -59.3 -124.4 -128.2 -101.7 -76.2 Other 0.0 0.0 35.6 0.0 0.0 Capital Employed 2305.9 3268.7 3654.6 3655.1 3651.0 Financed by Equity capital & reserves 1320.4 1614.2 1839.1 1973.8 2145.7 Minority interests 47.6 59.6 72.4 84.2 96.8 Preference shares 0.0 0.0 285.0 285.0 285.0 Net Debt/(Cash) 671.7 1227.5 1047.6 907.7 725.4 Deferred consideration/debt-related 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Retirement benefit obligations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net deferred tax 176.5 294.1 309.4 309.4 309.4 Other long-term liabilities 89.8 73.2 101.1 94.9 88.7 Capital Employed 2305.9 3268.7 3654.6 3655.1 3651.0 Intangibles amortised 106.1 156.8 251.1 350.5 453.8 Capital employed inc. intangibles 2412.0 3425.5 3905.6 4005.5 4104.8 Invested capital inc. intangibles 2145.8 3058.2 3495.2 3601.2 3706.7

DIVISIONAL ANALYSIS Jul11 Jul12F Jul13F Jul11 Jul12F Jul13F Revenue (€m) Operating Profits (€m)

Origin 1299.5 1244.9 1257.4 71.0 65.1 65.8 IAWS Food 2577.4 2823.7 2977.5 322.3 362.7 403.1 Total 3876.9 4068.6 4234.9 393.3 427.8 468.9

CALENDAR Date Ex-Div Interims 12-03-12 Finals 24-09-12 27-01-12 AGM 11-12-12 Updated 22-03-12

VALUATION Jul11 Jul12F Jul13F Dec11 Dec12F Dec13F Rel to Sector

P/E 12.4 11.4 10.1 0.5 0.7 0.7 Dividend Yield (%) 1.2 1.3 1.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 Free Cash Flow Yield (pre divs) (%) 7.9 5.5 6.8 Price / Book 1.72 1.68 1.58 0.9 0.9 0.9 EV / Revenue 1.14 1.10 1.02 EV / EBITDA 9.1 8.7 7.7 EV / EBITA 11.1 10.4 9.2 EV / Operating Cashflow 11.5 15.5 13.0 EV / Invested Capital 1.31 1.29 1.21 PEG (Hist P/E/4yr gwth) 0.97

PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 Yr Absolute 0.5 -4.7 2.4 4.2 2.6 17.9 Rel to ISEQ 0.1 -4.5 -0.3 4.9 -5.9 -3.9 Rel to E300 1.2 -6.5 -8.0 3.5 -5.2 5.3 Rel to E300 Food Producers 1.7 -3.7 -4.4 -4.0 -6.4 2.0

PRICE AND P/E HISTORY Price Hist P/E High Low Yr End High Low Average

2012 4060 3350 13.1 10.8 12.1 2011 3895 3132 3749 16.0 10.7 13.7 2010 3500 2582 3499 14.5 11.0 12.9 2009 2790 1617 2570 13.7 8.0 10.9 2008 3800 1879 2300 20.8 9.3 15.1 2007 3920 2790 3010 24.0 15.3 19.7

KEY RATIOS Jul09 Jul10 Jul11 Jul12F Jul13F G R O W T H

EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 16.1 4.0 27.1 9.1 12.4 Dividend (%) N/A 5.1 25.7 6.5 6.7 Revenue (%) 2.8 -6.5 28.8 4.9 4.1 EBITDA (%) 12.4 -0.2 42.7 6.1 8.3 P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y

EBITDA margin (%) 10.6 11.3 12.5 12.7 13.2 EBITA margin (%) 8.7 9.1 10.2 10.5 11.1 Revenue / Capital Employed (x) 1.49 1.10 1.11 1.08 1.10 R E T U R N

ROCE (before tax, ex. invs) (%) 13.0 10.0 11.3 11.3 12.1 ROE (after tax) (%) 13.7 12.1 14.1 13.9 14.3 Ret. on Inv. Cap. (after tax) (%) 9.8 10.3 11.5 11.3 12.0 WACC (%) 6.7 6.0 5.7 5.3 4.7 F I N A N C I A L / G E N E R A L

EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 6.7 6.6 7.1 7.9 10.0 Group Interest Cover (x) 5.0 4.9 4.7 5.3 6.9 Debt / EBITDA (x) 2.0 3.6 2.2 1.8 1.3 Debt / Equity (%) 49.1 73.3 54.8 44.1 32.4 Debt / Free Cash Flow (x) 4.0 4.7 3.9 4.9 3.2 Avg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) 7.2 5.4 4.8 5.2 5.1 Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Dividend Cover (x) 6.7 6.6 6.7 6.8 7.2 Working Capital / Revenue (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Net Capex / Depreciation (%) 131.3 68.7 83.5 172.3 169.8 Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) 6.5 15.0 6.4 15.9 15.4

CAGR(%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS % Revenue (%) 20.0 11.9 Invesco 10.0 EBITDA (%) 28.3 18.2 Fidelity International Limited 4.8 EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 13.7 15.0 Och-Ziff Capital Management Group 3.1 Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 15.0 13.9 Blackrock 3.0 Dividend (%) 11.5 13.0 Fidelity Management and Research 3.0 TSR 6.7 10.1


14 Davy Research

Associated British Foods

Analyst: Jack Gorman/John O'Reilly Email: [email protected]/[email protected] Bloomberg: ABF LN Phone: +353 1 6148926/+353 1 6148915 RIC: ABF.L Sector: Sweeteners www.abf.co.uk

Price (p) Shares (m) Mkt. Cap (£m) E.V. (£m) Mkt. Cap. / EV (%) Free Float (%) Daily No. Shares Traded (m) Daily Value Traded (£m) 1324 791.7 10481.8 12195.8 85.9 44.4 0.939 11.805

SUMMARY ACCOUNTS Sep09 Sep10 Sep11 Sep12F Sep13F I N C O M E S T A T E M E N T ( £ M )

Revenue 9255.0 10167.0 11065.0 12087.0 12823.0 EBITDA 1003.0 1225.0 1213.0 1372.0 1444.0 Depreciation 290.0 324.0 317.0 325.0 330.0 Amortisation of intangibles 85.0 89.0 96.0 99.0 99.0 Operating profit 628.0 812.0 800.0 948.0 1015.0 Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 10.0 16.0 37.0 40.0 40.0 PBIT before exceptionals 638.0 828.0 837.0 988.0 1055.0 Group net interest -78.0 -76.0 -92.0 -104.0 -95.0 Other finance costs 13.0 -8.0 7.0 0.0 0.0 Total finance costs -65.0 -84.0 -85.0 -104.0 -95.0 Exceptionals -78.0 19.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 PBT 495.0 763.0 757.0 884.0 960.0 Tax -112.0 -194.0 -180.0 -222.6 -240.0 Minorities (incl. pref. divs.) -24.0 -23.0 -36.0 -32.6 -36.6 Earnings (basic) 359.0 546.0 541.0 628.8 683.4 Average no. of shares (m) - basic 789.0 788.0 788.0 788.0 788.0 Average no. of shares (m) - diluted 789.0 788.0 788.0 788.0 788.0 P E R S H A R E D A T A ( P )

EPS Basic 45.5 69.3 68.7 79.8 86.7 EPS Diluted (Adj) 57.7 72.2 74.0 86.3 93.2 Cash EPS (Diluted) 94.4 113.3 114.2 127.5 135.1 Dividend 21.0 23.8 24.8 26.8 28.1 NBV 601.8 671.7 729.4 783.9 843.4 NBV (incl. amortisation of intangibles) 645.9 727.2 797.1 864.1 936.2 C A S H F L O W ( £ M )

EBITDA 1003.0 1225.0 1213.0 1372.0 1444.0 Change in working capital 117.0 193.0 -199.0 -67.0 -68.0 Share-based payments 0.0 11.0 8.0 12.0 12.0 Other operating cashflows -152.0 -102.0 -116.0 -31.0 -31.0 Cash generated from operations 968.0 1327.0 906.0 1286.0 1357.0 Net capital expenditure -526.0 -667.0 -776.0 -725.0 -769.0 Operating cashflow 442.0 660.0 130.0 561.0 588.0 Net interest -77.0 -73.0 -88.0 -115.0 -105.0 Tax -135.0 -155.0 -156.0 -221.0 -240.0 Dividends from associates 4.0 6.0 9.0 6.0 6.0 Dividends to minorities -23.0 -29.0 -22.0 -24.0 -27.0 Free cash flow 211.0 409.0 -127.0 207.0 222.0 Dividends to shareholders -161.0 -171.0 -190.0 -200.0 -214.0 Acquisitions & investments -306.0 -82.0 -101.0 0.0 0.0 Business disposals 145.0 4.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 Share Issues / (Buybacks) 9.0 109.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Translation differences -31.0 -19.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 Other -75.0 -67.0 -57.0 0.0 0.0 Change in net cash / debt -208.0 183.0 -469.0 7.0 8.0 B A L A N C E S H E E T ( £ M )

Property, plant & equipment 3519.0 3941.0 4465.0 4865.0 5305.0 Intangible assets 1913.0 1925.0 1893.0 1807.0 1722.0 Investments in associates / jv's 154.0 159.0 194.0 194.0 194.0 Working capital 970.0 826.0 1057.0 1123.0 1190.0 Other 10.0 152.0 254.0 305.0 354.0 Capital Employed 6566.0 7003.0 7863.0 8294.0 8765.0 Financed by Equity capital & reserves 4748.0 5293.0 5748.0 6177.0 6646.0 Minority interests 328.0 451.0 427.0 436.0 446.0 Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net Debt/(Cash) 999.0 816.0 1285.0 1278.0 1270.0 Deferred consideration/debt-related 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Retirement benefit obligations 106.0 99.0 44.0 44.0 44.0 Net deferred tax 212.0 238.0 254.0 254.0 254.0 Other long-term liabilities 173.0 106.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 Capital Employed 6566.0 7003.0 7863.0 8294.0 8765.0 Intangibles amortised 348.0 437.0 533.0 632.0 731.0 Capital employed inc. intangibles 6914.0 7440.0 8396.0 8926.0 9496.0 Invested capital inc. intangibles 6423.0 6997.0 7993.0 8523.0 9093.0

DIVISIONAL ANALYSIS Sep11 Sep12F Sep13F Sep11 Sep12F Sep13F Revenue (£m) Adj. Operating Profits (£m)

Grocery 3638.0 3763.0 3895.0 248.0 192.0 252.0 Sugar 2134.0 2488.0 2669.0 315.0 495.0 441.0 Agriculture 1127.0 1247.0 1279.0 40.0 37.0 40.0 Ingredients 1123.0 1160.0 1197.0 56.0 46.0 60.0 Retail 3043.0 3429.0 3783.0 309.0 348.0 394.0 Central costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 -48.0 -44.0 -46.0 Total 11065.0 12087.0 12823.0 920.0 1074.0 1141.0

CALENDAR Date Ex-Div Interims 24-04-12 06-06-12 Finals 06-11-12 07-12-11 AGM 09-12-11 Updated 12-07-12

VALUATION Sep11 Sep12F Sep13F Dec11 Dec12F Dec13F Rel to Sector

P/E 17.9 15.3 14.2 1.5 1.3 1.2 Dividend Yield (%) 1.9 2.0 2.1 0.8 0.8 0.8 Free Cash Flow Yield (pre divs) (%) N/A 2.0 2.1 Price / Book 1.82 1.69 1.57 1.3 1.3 1.3 EV / Revenue 1.08 0.99 0.94 EV / EBITDA 9.9 8.7 8.3 EV / EBITA 13.3 11.5 10.8 EV / Operating Cashflow N/A 21.4 20.4 EV / Invested Capital 1.52 1.43 1.34 PEG (Hist P/E/4yr gwth) 1.40

PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 Yr Absolute -0.4 5.5 11.5 10.0 19.6 23.6 Rel to FTSE 100 0.8 4.1 3.8 14.1 16.7 16.8 Rel to E300 0.1 2.5 1.4 16.7 16.6 23.3 Rel to Sector -0.9 3.8 14.3 11.9 16.2 14.6


2012 1332 1105 18.0 14.9 16.5 2011 1164 940 1107 16.1 13.0 14.7 2010 1182 820 1181 18.9 14.2 16.8 2009 866 613 822 15.8 11.2 13.6 2008 904 612 730 17.1 11.2 14.5 2007 949 773 900 18.6 15.2 16.9

KEY RATIOS Sep09 Sep10 Sep11 Sep12F Sep13F G R O W T H

EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 5.0 25.2 2.5 16.6 8.0 Dividend (%) 3.7 13.3 4.0 8.1 5.0 Revenue (%) 12.4 9.9 8.8 9.2 6.1 EBITDA (%) 13.3 22.1 -1.0 13.1 5.2 P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y



EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 12.9 16.1 13.2 13.2 15.2 Group Interest Cover (x) 8.2 10.9 9.1 9.5 11.1 Debt / EBITDA (x) 1.0 0.7 1.1 0.9 0.9 Debt / Equity (%) 19.7 14.2 20.8 19.3 17.9 Debt / Free Cash Flow (x) 4.7 2.0 N/A 6.2 5.7 Avg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) 8.7 8.4 8.8 8.1 7.5 Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 1.6 1.2 0.5 0.4 0.4 Dividend Cover (x) 2.7 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.3 Working Capital / Revenue (%) 10.5 8.1 9.6 9.3 9.3 Net Capex / Depreciation (%) 181.4 205.9 244.8 223.1 233.0 Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) 22.6 25.4 23.8 25.2 25.0

CAGR(%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS % Revenue (%) 13.0 N/A Wittington Investments 54.5 EBITDA (%) 10.8 N/A Howard Investments 3.6 EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 7.8 N/A Capital Research & Mgmt 3.1 Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 9.3 N/A Dividend (%) 5.7 N/A TSR 11.3 9.7


15 Davy Research

Britvic plc

Analyst: Barry Gallagher Email: [email protected] Bloomberg: BVIC LN Phone: +353 1 6149194 RIC: BVIC.L Sector: Beverage www.britvic.com


SUMMARY ACCOUNTS Sep09 Sep10 Sep11 Sep12F Sep13F I N C O M E S T A T E M E N T ( £ M )

Revenue 978.8 1121.4 1290.4 1269.6 1316.6 EBITDA 150.5 181.4 185.7 166.6 179.9 Depreciation 31.8 40.0 35.6 35.6 35.6 Amortisation of intangibles 8.6 9.0 15.1 15.1 15.1 Operating profit 110.1 132.4 135.0 115.9 129.2 Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 PBIT before exceptionals 110.1 132.4 135.0 115.9 129.2 Group net interest -23.6 -23.5 -29.9 -31.0 -27.9 Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total finance costs -23.6 -23.5 -29.9 -31.0 -27.9 Exceptionals -17.4 0.0 -19.5 0.0 0.0 PBT 69.1 108.9 85.6 84.9 101.3 Tax -22.3 -28.2 -27.2 -21.6 -25.8 Minorities (incl. pref. divs.) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Earnings (basic) 46.8 80.7 58.4 63.3 75.5 Average no. of shares (m) - basic 214.9 225.3 240.4 241.4 241.4 Average no. of shares (m) - diluted 220.9 231.3 246.4 249.0 249.0 P E R S H A R E D A T A ( P )

EPS Basic 21.8 35.8 24.3 26.2 31.3 EPS Diluted (Adj) 29.1 38.8 32.9 26.6 31.5 Cash EPS (Diluted) 43.5 56.1 47.3 40.9 45.8 Dividend 15.0 17.6 17.7 11.4 15.2 NBV N/A 16.9 9.1 25.3 42.7 NBV (incl. amortisation of intangibles) 19.5 39.9 36.9 60.0 83.6 C A S H F L O W ( £ M )

EBITDA 150.5 181.4 185.7 166.6 179.9 Change in working capital 13.8 -15.0 -13.5 -12.5 6.1 Share-based payments 6.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other operating cashflows -21.4 0.0 0.0 -7.5 -7.5 Cash generated from operations 149.8 166.4 172.2 146.6 178.5 Net capital expenditure -40.1 -57.2 -49.0 -50.0 -55.0 Operating cashflow 109.7 109.2 123.2 96.6 123.5 Net interest -32.5 -23.5 -26.9 -29.5 -26.5 Tax -18.9 -28.2 -25.6 -20.5 -24.6 Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Free cash flow 58.3 57.5 70.7 46.6 72.4 Dividends to shareholders -27.8 -39.7 -40.3 -27.6 -36.6 Acquisitions & investments -2.4 -200.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share Issues / (Buybacks) -3.3 94.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Translation differences -4.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other 1.8 -1.5 -25.7 -17.0 -6.8 Change in net cash / debt 22.0 -90.3 4.7 2.0 29.0 B A L A N C E S H E E T ( £ M )

Property, plant & equipment 226.0 276.0 243.8 275.2 301.4 Intangible assets 293.1 453.1 439.4 424.3 409.2 Investments in associates / jv's 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Working capital -58.4 -44.0 -30.9 -9.7 -6.4 Other 58.8 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Capital Employed 519.5 695.1 652.3 689.8 704.2 Financed by Equity capital & reserves -2.5 39.0 22.5 61.2 103.1 Minority interests 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net Debt/(Cash) 366.4 456.7 452.0 450.0 421.0 Deferred consideration/debt-related 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Retirement benefit obligations 85.1 85.1 45.1 45.1 45.1 Net deferred tax 25.6 25.6 23.0 23.0 23.0 Other long-term liabilities 44.9 88.7 109.7 110.6 112.0 Capital Employed 519.5 695.1 652.3 689.8 704.2 Intangibles amortised 44.4 53.4 68.5 83.6 98.7 Capital employed inc. intangibles 563.9 748.5 720.8 773.4 802.9 Invested capital inc. intangibles 408.3 549.1 543.0 594.8 622.8

GEOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS Sep11 Sep12F Sep13F Sep11 Sep12F Sep13F Revenue (£m) Operating Profits (£m)

GB and International 882.9 870.1 914.9 112.0 94.9 106.9 Ireland 162.8 142.6 134.4 6.0 5.0 5.5 France 244.7 256.9 267.3 17.0 16.0 17.5 Total 1290.4 1269.6 1316.6 135.0 115.9 129.9




PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 Yr Absolute 3.1 6.2 -3.6 -15.2 -0.7 0.5 Rel to FTSE 250 3.5 3.7 -10.8 -14.3 -12.0 -7.3 Rel to E300 3.7 3.2 -12.3 -10.0 -3.2 0.2 Rel to E300 Beverages 1.5 4.1 -15.7 -25.0 -19.4 -24.6


2012 398 260 12.1 7.9 10.5 2011 477 290 322 16.4 7.5 9.9 2010 518 398 473 17.3 12.7 15.9 2009 408 207 408 N/A N/A N/A 2008 354 166 264 N/A N/A N/A 2007 399 285 346 N/A N/A N/A

KEY RATIOS Sep09 Sep10 Sep11 Sep12F Sep13F G R O W T H

EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 19.5 33.4 -15.2 -19.0 18.4 Dividend (%) 19.0 17.3 0.6 -35.6 33.3 Revenue (%) 5.6 14.6 15.1 -1.6 3.7 EBITDA (%) 5.3 20.5 2.4 -10.3 8.0 P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y



EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 6.4 7.7 6.2 5.4 6.4 Group Interest Cover (x) 4.7 5.6 4.5 3.7 4.6 Debt / EBITDA (x) 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.7 2.3 Debt / Equity (%) N/A N/A N/A 735.6 408.4 Debt / Free Cash Flow (x) 6.3 7.9 6.4 9.7 5.8 Avg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) 6.3 5.7 6.6 6.9 6.4 Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 11.2 7.6 5.8 5.8 5.8 Dividend Cover (x) 1.9 2.2 1.9 2.3 2.1 Working Capital / Revenue (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Net Capex / Depreciation (%) 126.1 143.0 137.6 140.4 154.5 Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) 32.3 25.9 31.8 25.4 25.5

CAGR(%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS % Revenue (%) 13.7 N/A Route One Fund 6.2 EBITDA (%) 8.9 N/A Standard Life Investment 4.9 EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 12.5 N/A Pepsico 4.4 Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 5.2 N/A Dividend (%) 12.1 N/A TSR 4.4 N/A


16 Davy Research

C&C

Analyst: Barry Gallagher Xetra: GCC Email: [email protected] Bloomberg: GCC ID Phone: +353 1 6149194 RIC: GCC.I Sector: Beverage www.candcgroupplc.com


SUMMARY ACCOUNTS Feb10 Feb11 Feb12 Feb13F Feb14F I N C O M E S T A T E M E N T ( € M )

Revenue 568.7 529.6 480.8 488.4 514.4 EBITDA 104.5 121.8 131.6 133.8 141.0 Depreciation 15.0 21.3 20.3 21.8 21.8 Amortisation of intangibles 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Operating profit 89.5 100.5 111.3 112.0 119.2 Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 PBIT before exceptionals 89.5 100.5 111.3 112.0 119.2 Group net interest -7.2 -9.4 -5.1 -4.0 0.0 Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total finance costs -7.2 -9.4 -5.1 -4.0 0.0 Exceptionals -3.5 -9.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 PBT 78.8 82.0 106.2 108.0 119.2 Tax -8.9 -11.1 -13.8 -15.1 -17.3 Minorities (incl. pref. divs.) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Earnings (basic) 69.9 70.9 92.4 92.8 102.0 Average no. of shares (m) - basic 316.8 321.6 323.0 321.3 321.3 Average no. of shares (m) - diluted 323.8 330.1 333.6 333.8 333.8 P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )


EBITDA 104.5 121.8 131.6 133.8 141.0 Change in working capital 33.7 31.5 8.0 0.0 2.0 Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other operating cashflows 1.8 4.5 -0.2 0.0 0.0 Cash generated from operations 140.0 157.8 139.4 133.8 143.0 Net capital expenditure -5.4 -21.1 -17.7 -15.0 -15.0 Operating cashflow 134.6 136.7 121.7 118.8 128.0 Net interest -7.0 -8.0 -6.0 -4.0 0.0 Tax -4.7 -8.4 -5.5 -12.1 -13.8 Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Free cash flow 122.9 120.3 110.2 102.7 114.2 Dividends to shareholders -22.0 -12.1 -18.5 -27.9 -30.6 Acquisitions & investments -224.5 263.9 -11.9 -4.0 0.0 Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share Issues / (Buybacks) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Translation differences 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other -15.1 -13.5 -5.2 0.0 -0.0 Change in net cash / debt -138.7 358.6 74.6 70.8 83.6 B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )

Property, plant & equipment 187.2 187.2 181.8 175.0 168.2 Intangible assets 507.7 466.3 484.9 488.5 483.9 Investments in associates / jv's 32.1 20.0 19.5 19.5 19.5 Working capital 16.5 7.1 -2.4 -1.1 0.3 Other 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 Capital Employed 743.5 681.0 683.9 681.9 671.9 Financed by Equity capital & reserves 329.4 643.7 714.2 779.2 850.6 Minority interests 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net Debt/(Cash) 364.9 6.3 -68.3 -139.1 -222.7 Deferred consideration/debt-related 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Retirement benefit obligations 21.2 15.3 15.1 15.1 15.1 Net deferred tax 0.0 -2.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 Other long-term liabilities 28.0 18.5 22.2 26.0 28.3 Capital Employed 743.5 681.0 683.9 681.8 671.9 Intangibles amortised 63.1 63.1 63.1 63.1 63.1 Capital employed inc. intangibles 806.6 744.1 747.0 744.9 735.0 Invested capital inc. intangibles 757.4 713.1 709.0 703.2 690.9

DIVISIONAL ANALYSIS Feb12 Feb13F Feb14F Feb12 Feb13F Feb14F Revenue (€m) Op. Profit (pre am.) (€m)

Irish Cider 91.5 82.3 80.7 42.2 39.3 37.0 UK and International Cider 215.0 216.9 235.0 39.6 38.8 45.1 Distribution 74.0 80.0 85.0 7.1 8.0 8.5 Tennent's 100.0 109.2 113.7 22.3 25.9 28.6 Total 480.5 488.4 514.4 111.2 112.0 119.3


VALUATION Feb12 Feb13F Feb14F Dec11 Dec12F Dec13F Rel to Sector


PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 Yr Absolute 1.0 1.0 5.1 -0.1 25.6 18.2 Rel to ISEQ 0.6 1.3 2.3 0.5 15.3 -3.6 Rel to E300 1.7 -0.9 -5.6 -0.8 16.2 5.6 Rel to E300 Beverages -0.5 0.0 -9.2 -17.3 -3.3 -20.6


2012 393 281 16.2 11.4 13.7 2011 369 270 287 15.9 11.1 13.8 2010 360 266 338 16.3 12.1 14.1 2009 320 78 301 14.5 2.6 8.4 2008 540 102 145 17.7 3.4 8.4 2007 1390 367 410 46.7 6.8 22.5

KEY RATIOS Feb10 Feb11 Feb12 Feb13F Feb14F G R O W T H

EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 2.3 6.9 14.3 0.4 9.8 Dividend (%) -33.3 10.0 9.1 15.8 9.8 Revenue (%) 10.5 -6.9 -9.2 1.6 5.3 EBITDA (%) -4.7 16.6 8.0 1.6 5.5 P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y


ROCE (before tax, ex. invs) (%) 13.0 13.4 15.3 15.4 16.6 ROE (after tax) (%) 20.8 14.6 12.5 11.5 11.6 Ret. on Inv. Cap. (after tax) (%) 12.3 12.0 13.6 13.6 14.6 WACC (%) 7.3 8.7 N/A N/A N/A F I N A N C I A L / G E N E R A L

EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 14.5 13.0 25.8 33.4 N/A Group Interest Cover (x) 12.4 10.7 21.8 28.0 N/A Debt / EBITDA (x) 3.5 0.1 N/A N/A N/A Debt / Equity (%) 110.8 1.0 N/A N/A N/A Debt / Free Cash Flow (x) 3.0 0.1 N/A N/A N/A Avg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) 2.4 5.1 N/A N/A N/A Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 2.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 Dividend Cover (x) 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.3 3.3 Working Capital / Revenue (%) 2.9 1.3 N/A N/A 0.1 Net Capex / Depreciation (%) 36.0 99.1 87.2 68.8 68.8 Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) 11.3 13.5 13.0 14.0 14.5

CAGR(%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS % Revenue (%) -13.3 -4.6 Invesco 9.0 EBITDA (%) -10.6 -1.5 Independent Franchise Partners 7.0 EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) -12.5 6.7 MassMutual 6.0 Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) -10.7 5.5 Southeastern Asset Management 5.4 Dividend (%) -23.2 N/A F&C Asset Management 4.4


17 Davy Research

Carlsberg

Analyst: Barry Gallagher Email: [email protected] Bloomberg: CARLB DC Phone: +353 1 6149194 RIC: CARLb.CO Sector: Beverage www.carlsberggroup.com

Price (dkk) Shares (m) Mkt. Cap (DKK) E.V. (DKK) Mkt. Cap. / EV (%) Free Float (%) Daily No. Shares Traded (m) Daily Value Traded (DKK) 51300 152.6 78261.2 111371 70.3 82.0 0.422 201.550

SUMMARY ACCOUNTS Dec09 Dec10 Dec11P Dec12F Dec13F I N C O M E S T A T E M E N T ( D K K )

Revenue 59382.0 60054.0 63561.0 66238.2 68940.0 EBITDA 13169.0 14214.9 13600.0 13988.7 14914.0 Depreciation 3779.0 3966.0 3784.0 3850.0 3900.0 Amortisation of intangibles 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Operating profit 9390.0 10248.9 9816.0 10138.7 11014.0 Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 PBIT before exceptionals 9390.0 10248.9 9816.0 10138.7 11014.0 Group net interest -2990.0 -2155.0 -2018.0 -1623.0 -1543.5 Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 -300.0 -100.0 Total finance costs -2990.0 -2155.0 -2018.0 -1923.0 -1643.5 Exceptionals -695.0 -249.0 -268.0 1270.0 -200.0 PBT 5705.0 7844.9 7530.0 9485.7 9170.5 Tax -1538.0 -1885.0 -1837.3 -2243.7 -2292.6 Minorities (incl. pref. divs.) -565.0 -609.0 -543.0 -586.0 -765.0 Earnings (basic) 3602.0 5350.9 5149.7 6656.0 6112.9 Average no. of shares (m) - basic 152.5 152.5 152.8 152.8 152.8 Average no. of shares (m) - diluted 152.5 152.5 152.8 152.8 152.8 P E R S H A R E D A T A ( D K K )

EPS Basic 2362.0 3507.7 3369.4 4355.0 3999.6 EPS Diluted (Adj) 2729.2 3507.7 3369.4 3762.8 4097.8 Cash EPS (Diluted) 5207.2 6107.5 5845.2 6281.9 6649.5 Dividend 350.0 543.0 550.0 573.2 630.0 NBV 35953.4 42119.1 43095.6 48183.2 52968.7 NBV (incl. amortisation of intangibles) 35953.4 42119.1 43095.6 48183.2 52968.7 C A S H F L O W ( D K K )

EBITDA 13169.0 14214.9 13600.0 13988.7 14914.0 Change in working capital 3675.0 716.0 -992.0 -62.6 -254.9 Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other operating cashflows -9.0 514.0 315.0 3.1 -267.6 Cash generated from operations 16835.0 15444.9 12923.0 13929.3 14391.5 Net capital expenditure -2923.0 -3326.0 -4571.0 -4288.5 -4451.7 Operating cashflow 13912.0 12118.9 8352.0 9640.8 9939.8 Net interest -1597.0 -1947.0 -2070.0 -1923.0 -1643.5 Tax -1374.0 -2329.8 -1592.0 -2131.5 -2178.0 Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Dividends to minorities -591.0 -604.0 -1876.0 -936.0 -994.5 Free cash flow 10350.0 7238.1 2814.0 4650.3 5123.8 Dividends to shareholders -540.0 -746.0 -812.0 -1070.5 -1006.9 Acquisitions & investments -159.0 -2535.0 -312.0 1950.0 50.0 Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share Issues / (Buybacks) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Translation differences 0.0 0.0 -5.0 0.0 0.0 Other -2158.0 -1105.2 -968.0 1.7 465.1 Change in net cash / debt 7493.0 2852.0 717.0 5531.5 4632.0 B A L A N C E S H E E T ( D K K )

Property, plant & equipment 31825.0 32420.0 31848.0 33141.2 35192.4 Intangible assets 81611.0 87813.0 89041.0 89363.0 91120.0 Investments in associates / jv's 2667.0 4877.0 5051.0 5051.0 5051.0 Working capital -9531.0 -10300.0 -8769.0 -9106.0 -9202.0 Other 337.0 241.0 -258.0 -258.0 -258.0 Capital Employed 106909 115051 116913 118191 121903 Financed by Equity capital & reserves 54829.0 64248.0 65866.0 73641.7 80955.8 Minority interests 4660.0 5381.0 5763.0 5547.0 5317.5 Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net Debt/(Cash) 36663.0 33811.0 33094.0 27562.5 22930.5 Deferred consideration/debt-related 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Retirement benefit obligations 2153.0 2434.0 3263.0 3263.0 3263.0 Net deferred tax 6505.0 6749.0 6664.0 5914.0 7173.6 Other long-term liabilities 2099.0 2428.0 2263.0 2263.0 2263.0 Capital Employed 106909 115051 116913 118191 121903 Intangibles amortised 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Capital employed inc. intangibles 106909 115051 116913 118191 121903 Invested capital inc. intangibles 96152.0 103440 104723 106751 109204

GEOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS Dec11P Dec12F Dec13F Dec11P Dec12F Dec13F Revenue (DKK) Operating Profits (DKK)

Northern & Western Europe 36879.0 36828.1 36962.9 5419.0 5394.4 5560.7 Eastern Europe 19719.0 20174.5 21602.0 4286.0 4130.0 4667.2 Asia 6838.0 9102.5 10250.1 1286.0 1727.3 1946.2 Not allocated 125.0 133.0 125.0 -1114.0 -1113.0 -1160.0 Total 63561.0 66238.2 68940.0 9877.0 10138.7 11014.0


VALUATION Dec11P Dec12F Dec13F Dec11P Dec12F Dec13F Rel to Sector


PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 Yr Absolute 0.9 4.6 14.6 17.9 26.7 31.9 Rel to OMX Copenhagen 0.5 3.8 3.0 12.0 3.9 2.7 Rel to E300 1.6 2.7 2.7 16.9 16.9 18.1 Rel to E300 Beverages -0.5 3.5 -1.2 -2.7 -2.7 -11.2


2012 52000 40600 15.4 11.6 13.6 2011 62000 32220 40500 21.6 9.2 15.1 2010 60750 36700 55850 22.3 14.2 18.2 2009 39375 16875 38400 15.3 6.9 12.5 2008 55052 15100 17125 25.0 6.2 17.2 2007 62156 44801 49725 43.0 22.9 28.5

KEY RATIOS Dec09 Dec10 Dec11P Dec12F Dec13F G R O W T H

EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 5.9 28.5 -3.9 11.7 8.9 Dividend (%) 0.0 55.1 1.3 4.2 9.9 Revenue (%) -0.9 1.1 5.8 4.2 4.1 EBITDA (%) 13.4 7.9 -4.3 2.9 6.6 P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y



EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 4.4 6.6 6.7 8.6 9.7 Group Interest Cover (x) 3.1 4.8 4.9 6.2 7.1 Debt / EBITDA (x) 2.8 2.4 2.4 2.0 1.5 Debt / Equity (%) 61.6 48.6 46.2 34.8 26.6 Debt / Free Cash Flow (x) 3.5 4.7 11.8 5.9 4.5 Avg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) 7.4 6.1 6.0 5.4 6.1 Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 3.7 2.9 5.3 4.2 4.2 Dividend Cover (x) 7.8 6.5 6.1 6.6 6.5 Working Capital / Revenue (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Net Capex / Depreciation (%) 77.3 83.9 120.8 111.4 114.1 Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) 27.0 24.0 24.4 23.7 25.0

CAGR(%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS % Revenue (%) 9.1 N/A Carlsberg Foundation 12.2 EBITDA (%) 14.7 N/A OppenheimerFunds 6.2 EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 9.9 N/A Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 3.0 N/A Dividend (%) 12.1 N/A TSR -2.4 6.5


18 Davy Research

Continental Farmers Group

Analyst: John O'Reilly Xetra: CT3 Email: john.o'[email protected] Bloomberg: CFGP ID Phone: +353 1 6148915 RIC: CFGP.I Sector: Agribusiness www.continentalfarmersgroup.com

Price (c) Shares (m) Mkt. Cap (€m) E.V. (€m) Mkt. Cap. / EV (%) Free Float (%) Daily No. Shares Traded (m) Daily Value Traded (€m) 30 163.5 49.0 52.6 93.2 35.0 0.023 0.006

SUMMARY ACCOUNTS Dec09 Dec10 Dec11E Dec12F Dec13F I N C O M E S T A T E M E N T ( € M )

Revenue 12.3 21.1 24.9 32.1 39.9 EBITDA 0.3 6.3 6.8 8.9 11.1 Depreciation 1.4 1.8 1.9 2.2 2.6 Amortisation of intangibles 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Operating profit -1.0 4.6 4.8 6.7 8.5 Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 PBIT before exceptionals -1.0 4.6 4.8 6.7 8.5 Group net interest -0.9 -1.4 -1.4 -1.4 -1.4 Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total finance costs -0.9 -1.4 -1.4 -1.4 -1.4 Exceptionals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 PBT -1.9 3.2 3.4 5.3 7.1 Tax 0.0 -0.6 -0.7 -0.3 -0.4 Minorities (incl. pref. divs.) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Earnings (basic) -1.9 2.7 2.7 5.0 6.7 Average no. of shares (m) - basic 82.9 82.9 123.2 163.5 163.5 Average no. of shares (m) - diluted 82.9 82.9 123.2 163.5 163.5 P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )

EPS Basic -2.2 3.2 2.2 3.1 4.1 EPS Diluted (Adj) -2.2 3.2 2.2 3.1 4.1 Cash EPS (Diluted) -0.6 5.4 3.8 4.4 5.7 Dividend 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 NBV 56.6 60.8 43.0 46.1 50.2 NBV (incl. amortisation of intangibles) 56.6 60.8 43.0 46.1 50.2 C A S H F L O W ( € M )

EBITDA 0.3 6.3 6.8 8.9 11.1 Change in working capital -0.8 -2.1 -0.2 -3.0 -3.2 Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other operating cashflows 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 Cash generated from operations 0.4 4.2 6.6 5.9 7.9 Net capital expenditure -6.0 -3.1 -5.7 -9.6 -10.7 Operating cashflow -5.5 1.1 0.9 -3.7 -2.8 Net interest -0.7 -0.9 -1.4 -1.4 -1.4 Tax 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Free cash flow -6.2 0.2 -0.7 -5.4 -4.6 Dividends to shareholders 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Acquisitions & investments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share Issues / (Buybacks) 4.0 0.0 14.5 0.0 0.0 Translation differences 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other -0.7 -0.6 -0.0 0.0 -0.1 Change in net cash / debt -2.8 -0.2 13.8 -5.4 -4.7 B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )

Property, plant & equipment 30.7 32.4 36.1 43.6 51.8 Intangible assets 22.1 22.1 22.1 22.1 22.1 Investments in associates / jv's 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Working capital 8.4 11.1 10.8 13.7 16.9 Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Capital Employed 61.3 65.6 69.0 79.5 90.9 Financed by Equity capital & reserves 46.9 50.4 70.4 75.4 82.1 Minority interests 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 Preference shares 2.5 2.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net Debt/(Cash) 10.4 10.6 -3.2 2.2 6.9 Deferred consideration/debt-related 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Retirement benefit obligations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net deferred tax 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Other long-term liabilities 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.0 Capital Employed 61.3 65.6 69.0 79.5 90.9 Intangibles amortised 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Capital employed inc. intangibles 61.3 65.6 69.0 79.5 90.9 Invested capital inc. intangibles 61.3 65.0 68.5 78.9 90.3

CALENDAR Date Ex-Div Interims 17-09-12 Finals 27-03-12 AGM 29-05-12 Updated 28-10-11

VALUATION Dec11E Dec12F Dec13F Dec11E Dec12F Dec13F Rel to Sector

P/E 13.5 9.8 7.3 0.9 0.7 0.6 Dividend Yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 Free Cash Flow Yield (pre divs) (%) N/A N/A N/A Price / Book 0.70 0.65 0.60 0.2 0.2 0.2 EV / Revenue 1.90 1.64 1.44 EV / EBITDA 7.0 5.9 5.1 EV / EBITA 9.8 7.8 6.7 EV / Operating Cashflow N/A N/A N/A EV / Invested Capital 0.69 0.67 0.63 PEG (Hist P/E/4yr gwth) N/A

PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 Yr Absolute 13.2 15.4 11.1 25.0 7.1 -9.1 Rel to ISEQ 12.8 15.7 8.2 25.8 -1.6 -25.9 Rel to E300 14.0 13.3 -0.2 24.2 -0.9 -18.8 Rel to E300 Food Producers 14.6 16.6 3.8 15.2 -2.2 -21.4


2012 30 24 12.2 7.4 8.5 2011 36 26 28 11.0 8.0 9.3

KEY RATIOS Dec09 Dec10 Dec11E Dec12F Dec13F G R O W T H

EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) N/A N/A -31.4 38.2 34.4 Dividend (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Revenue (%) 102.2 71.3 17.8 29.2 24.2 EBITDA (%) -83.2 N/A 6.8 31.4 25.1 P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y

EBITDA margin (%) 2.8 30.0 27.2 27.7 27.9 EBITA margin (%) N/A 21.6 19.4 20.9 21.4 Revenue / Capital Employed (x) 0.20 0.33 0.37 0.43 0.47 R E T U R N

ROCE (before tax, ex. invs) (%) N/A 7.2 7.2 9.1 10.0 ROE (after tax) (%) N/A 5.5 4.5 6.9 8.6 Ret. on Inv. Cap. (after tax) (%) N/A 5.9 5.8 8.7 9.6 WACC (%) N/A N/A 5.4 N/A 7.7 F I N A N C I A L / G E N E R A L

EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 0.4 4.5 4.7 6.2 7.7 Group Interest Cover (x) N/A 3.3 3.3 4.7 5.9 Debt / EBITDA (x) 29.9 1.7 N/A 0.3 0.6 Debt / Equity (%) 21.5 20.5 N/A 2.9 8.3 Debt / Free Cash Flow (x) N/A 56.7 N/A N/A N/A Avg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) 7.6 10.7 22.5 N/A N/A Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Dividend Cover (x) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Working Capital / Revenue (%) 68.1 52.5 43.2 42.7 42.4 Net Capex / Depreciation (%) 432.7 176.0 294.2 443.4 412.4 Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) N/A 18.5 19.2 5.0 4.9

CAGR(%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS % Revenue (%) N/A N/A Origin International 24.3 EBITDA (%) N/A N/A Artemis 8.2 EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) N/A N/A Mark Laird 7.1 Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) N/A N/A F&C Asset Management 5.6 Dividend (%) N/A N/A Thomas O' Connor 4.5 TSR N/A N/A


19 Davy Research

CSM NV

Analyst: John O'Reilly Email: john.o'[email protected] Bloomberg: CSM NA Phone: +353 1 6148915 RIC: /CSMNc.AS Sector: Speciality baking www.csmglobal.com


SUMMARY ACCOUNTS Dec09 Dec10 Dec11P Dec12F Dec13F I N C O M E S T A T E M E N T ( € M )

Revenue 2555.9 2990.1 3112.6 3335.6 3315.1 EBITDA 211.5 265.5 202.2 204.0 254.9 Depreciation 60.9 71.6 72.0 72.2 76.4 Amortisation of intangibles 7.8 35.7 30.7 25.1 25.1 Operating profit 142.8 158.2 99.5 106.7 153.4 Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 PBIT before exceptionals 142.8 158.2 99.5 106.7 153.4 Group net interest -28.9 -27.6 -29.8 -34.0 -33.0 Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total finance costs -28.9 -27.6 -29.8 -34.0 -33.0 Exceptionals 0.0 0.0 -249.0 0.0 0.0 PBT 113.9 130.6 -179.3 72.7 120.4 Tax -27.1 -31.2 5.0 -17.4 -28.9 Minorities (incl. pref. divs.) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Earnings (basic) 86.8 99.4 -174.3 55.3 91.5 Average no. of shares (m) - basic 64.8 66.0 66.1 69.9 69.9 Average no. of shares (m) - diluted 65.0 66.2 66.3 69.9 69.9 P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )

EPS Basic 134.0 150.6 -263.5 79.2 131.0 EPS Diluted (Adj) 135.4 181.4 -236.8 98.2 150.0 Cash EPS (Diluted) 229.1 289.6 -128.3 201.6 259.4 Dividend 88.0 88.0 70.0 73.0 76.0 NBV 1530.4 1682.5 1425.2 1368.8 1429.2 NBV (incl. amortisation of intangibles) 1563.8 1769.1 1557.7 1531.0 1627.3 C A S H F L O W ( € M )

EBITDA 211.5 265.5 202.2 204.0 254.9 Change in working capital 103.5 -13.3 1.2 -11.9 1.7 Share-based payments 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 Other operating cashflows -6.7 1.9 -10.5 0.5 -3.5 Cash generated from operations 309.3 255.1 193.9 193.6 254.1 Net capital expenditure -47.1 -69.6 -93.2 -80.1 -76.2 Operating cashflow 262.2 185.5 100.7 113.5 177.9 Net interest -32.0 -32.4 -29.4 -34.0 -33.0 Tax -0.1 -34.1 -19.6 -17.4 -28.9 Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Free cash flow 230.1 119.0 51.7 62.1 116.0 Dividends to shareholders -31.5 -36.2 -23.2 -47.4 -49.3 Acquisitions & investments 0.0 -384.7 -20.5 0.0 0.0 Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share Issues / (Buybacks) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Translation differences 0.0 7.4 1.6 0.0 0.0 Other 1.2 -8.2 5.8 -0.4 3.4 Change in net cash / debt 199.8 -302.7 15.4 14.3 70.1 B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )


DIVISIONAL ANALYSIS Dec11P Dec12F Dec13F Dec11P Dec12F Dec13F Revenue (€m) EBITA (€m)

BSNA 1627.6 1801.4 1753.0 94.9 115.9 110.5 BSEU 1077.8 1111.9 1122.4 38.4 20.7 42.7 PURAC 407.2 422.3 438.8 46.1 45.0 54.9 Total 3112.6 3335.6 3314.2 179.4 181.6 208.1



P/E N/A 13.6 8.9 N/A 0.8 0.6 Dividend Yield (%) 5.2 5.4 5.7 2.5 2.5 2.4 Free Cash Flow Yield (pre divs) (%) 5.3 6.4 11.9 Price / Book 0.94 0.98 0.94 0.5 0.5 0.5 EV / Revenue 0.48 0.47 0.45 EV / EBITDA 7.5 7.7 5.9 EV / EBITA 11.6 12.0 8.4 EV / Operating Cashflow 15.0 13.9 8.5 EV / Invested Capital 0.91 0.94 0.90 PEG (Hist P/E/4yr gwth) N/A

PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 Yr Absolute 0.3 10.2 -0.5 -5.3 11.0 -20.4 Rel to Amsterdam Exchange 0.4 9.3 -12.3 -6.4 5.3 -29.2 Rel to E300 1.0 8.3 -10.6 -5.9 2.6 -28.9 Rel to E300 Food Producers 1.6 11.4 -7.0 -12.7 1.3 -31.1


2012 1528 1049 8.4 N/A N/A 2011 2688 925 1208 19.9 5.1 11.3 2010 2627 1855 2619 23.5 13.6 18.5 2009 1868 761 1838 21.0 5.8 12.1 2008 2472 900 1098 31.6 6.9 19.8 2007 2837 2133 2205 35.0 15.6 20.6


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) -2.9 34.0 N/A N/A 52.8 Dividend (%) 100.0 0.0 -20.5 4.3 4.1 Revenue (%) -1.7 17.0 4.1 7.2 -0.6 EBITDA (%) 22.9 25.5 -23.8 0.9 25.0 P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y



EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 7.3 9.6 6.8 6.0 7.7 Group Interest Cover (x) 4.9 5.7 N/A 3.1 4.6 Debt / EBITDA (x) 1.6 2.4 3.0 2.9 2.1 Debt / Equity (%) 32.9 56.5 64.9 62.9 53.2 Debt / Free Cash Flow (x) 1.4 5.3 11.9 9.7 4.6 Avg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) 6.7 5.8 4.8 5.6 5.8 Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Dividend Cover (x) 1.5 2.1 N/A 1.3 2.0 Working Capital / Revenue (%) 7.8 8.4 8.3 8.1 8.1 Net Capex / Depreciation (%) 77.3 97.2 129.4 110.9 99.7 Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) 23.8 23.9 N/A 23.9 24.0

CAGR(%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS % Revenue (%) 5.2 N/A ING Groep 10.7 EBITDA (%) 1.1 N/A Lansdowne Partners 10.3 EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) N/A N/A ASR Nederland 6.3 Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) N/A N/A Dividend (%) -4.5 N/A TSR -6.0 -2.7


20 Davy Research

Diageo

Analyst: Barry Gallagher Email: [email protected] Bloomberg: DGE LN Phone: +353 1 6149194 RIC: DGE.L Sector: Beverage www.diageo.com


SUMMARY ACCOUNTS Jun10 Jun11 Jun12P Jun13F Jun14F I N C O M E S T A T E M E N T ( £ M )

Revenue 9780.5 9936.0 10762.0 11374.6 12297.1 EBITDA 3123.2 3235.5 3609.0 3915.8 4213.2 Depreciation 338.0 352.0 411.0 420.0 430.0 Amortisation of intangibles 34.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Operating profit 2751.2 2883.5 3198.0 3495.8 3783.2 Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 147.0 0.0 0.0 Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 141.7 176.0 213.0 227.8 243.9 PBIT before exceptionals 2892.9 3059.5 3558.0 3723.6 4027.1 Group net interest -462.0 -411.0 -397.0 -400.0 -335.0 Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total finance costs -462.0 -411.0 -397.0 -400.0 -335.0 Exceptionals -192.0 -289.0 -40.0 -50.0 -50.0 PBT 2238.9 2359.5 3121.0 3273.6 3642.1 Tax -476.9 -343.0 -1038.0 -589.3 -655.6 Minorities (incl. pref. divs.) -114.0 -117.0 -130.0 -130.0 -130.0 Earnings (basic) 1629.0 1899.5 1942.0 2554.3 2856.5 Average no. of shares (m) - basic 2460.0 2493.0 2495.0 2495.0 2495.0 Average no. of shares (m) - diluted 2477.0 2493.0 2495.0 2495.0 2495.0 P E R S H A R E D A T A ( P )


EBITDA 3123.2 3235.5 3609.0 3915.8 4213.2 Change in working capital 320.9 -112.0 -529.0 -106.0 -107.0 Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other operating cashflows -259.9 -244.0 -32.1 86.2 89.8 Cash generated from operations 3184.2 2879.5 3047.9 3896.0 4196.0 Net capital expenditure -231.0 -372.0 -445.0 -512.0 -543.0 Operating cashflow 2953.2 2507.5 2602.9 3384.0 3653.0 Net interest -305.0 -311.0 -391.0 -400.0 -335.0 Tax -474.0 -365.0 -563.0 -589.0 -656.0 Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Dividends to minorities -107.4 -111.0 -118.0 -120.0 -120.0 Free cash flow 2066.8 1720.5 1530.9 2275.0 2542.0 Dividends to shareholders -914.0 -973.0 -1036.0 -1258.0 -1400.0 Acquisitions & investments -248.0 -117.0 -1420.0 0.0 0.0 Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share Issues / (Buybacks) 85.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Translation differences 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other -901.8 231.0 -195.4 240.0 78.0 Change in net cash / debt 88.0 861.5 -1120.5 1257.0 1220.0 B A L A N C E S H E E T ( £ M )



VALUATION Jun12P Jun13F Jun14F Dec11P Dec12F Dec13F Rel to Sector


PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 Yr Absolute 0.7 1.1 11.5 14.4 22.6 39.1 Rel to FTSE 100 1.8 -0.3 3.9 18.8 19.7 31.4 Rel to E300 1.2 -1.8 1.4 21.4 19.5 38.7 Rel to E300 Beverages -0.9 -1.0 -2.4 1.1 -0.5 4.3


2012 1743 1381 20.8 16.5 18.7 2011 1408 1112 1407 18.1 14.4 16.6 2010 1215 1000 1185 18.0 15.1 16.5 2009 1090 733 1084 18.1 11.4 15.0 2008 1081 794 961 19.7 13.4 16.7 2007 1122 966 1080 20.5 17.6 19.3

KEY RATIOS Jun10 Jun11 Jun12P Jun13F Jun14F G R O W T H

EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 9.1 15.9 12.8 10.8 11.6 Dividend (%) 6.0 5.5 7.7 6.9 7.1 Revenue (%) 5.0 1.6 8.3 5.7 8.1 EBITDA (%) 9.1 3.6 11.5 8.5 7.6 P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y



EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 6.8 7.9 9.1 9.8 12.6 Group Interest Cover (x) 6.3 7.4 9.0 9.3 12.0 Debt / EBITDA (x) 2.4 2.1 2.2 1.7 1.3 Debt / Equity (%) 159.4 112.2 115.2 69.7 43.8 Debt / Free Cash Flow (x) 3.7 3.9 5.1 2.9 2.1 Avg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) 6.3 6.0 5.7 5.8 5.9 Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) N/A N/A 2.7 2.6 2.6 Dividend Cover (x) 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.3 Working Capital / Revenue (%) 29.5 27.6 37.3 36.2 34.3 Net Capex / Depreciation (%) 68.3 105.7 108.3 121.9 126.3 Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) 21.3 14.5 33.3 18.0 18.0

CAGR(%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS % Revenue (%) 7.5 N/A Blackrock 5.8 EBITDA (%) 8.8 N/A Capital Research & Mgmt 5.0 EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 11.6 N/A Legal & General Group 4.0 Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 12.6 N/A Dividend (%) 5.9 N/A TSR 14.0 10.4


21 Davy Research

Donegal Creameries

Analyst: John O'Reilly Xetra: DQ7 Email: john.o'[email protected] Bloomberg: DCP ID Phone: +353 1 6148915 RIC: DQ7.I Sector: Dairy processing www.donegal-creameries.ie



Revenue 113.3 126.2 69.6 74.5 78.2 EBITDA 3.2 5.5 0.1 8.0 8.6 Depreciation 2.5 2.3 2.3 1.5 1.6 Amortisation of intangibles 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 Operating profit -2.0 -0.8 -4.0 4.5 4.8 Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 PBIT before exceptionals 0.7 3.0 -2.3 6.5 7.0 Group net interest -0.6 -0.3 -1.7 -0.6 -0.5 Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total finance costs -0.6 -0.3 -1.7 -0.6 -0.5 Exceptionals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 PBT 0.0 2.7 -4.1 5.9 6.5 Tax -0.0 0.4 1.1 -0.9 -1.0 Minorities (incl. pref. divs.) -0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Earnings (basic) 0.0 3.1 -7.9 5.0 5.5 Average no. of shares (m) - basic 10.2 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.1 Average no. of shares (m) - diluted 10.5 10.2 10.3 10.3 10.3 P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )

EPS Basic 0.0 30.2 -77.4 49.0 54.2 EPS Diluted (Adj) 0.7 31.5 -75.5 49.1 54.2 Cash EPS (Diluted) 24.5 54.3 -52.7 63.6 69.4 Dividend 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.0 17.0 NBV 567.9 594.4 502.3 534.6 569.1 NBV (incl. amortisation of intangibles) 580.8 609.1 517.7 550.8 586.1 C A S H F L O W ( € M )

EBITDA 3.2 5.5 0.1 8.0 8.6 Change in working capital 4.7 -4.0 -0.6 -1.0 0.7 Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other operating cashflows 2.5 0.7 -0.2 -2.0 -2.2 Cash generated from operations 10.4 2.2 -0.7 5.0 7.1 Net capital expenditure -2.1 -2.3 -2.3 -1.0 -1.0 Operating cashflow 8.3 -0.1 -3.0 4.0 6.1 Net interest -0.9 -0.3 -1.0 -0.6 -0.5 Tax -0.3 0.4 -0.3 -0.9 -1.0 Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Dividends to minorities -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 Free cash flow 7.1 -0.0 -4.3 2.5 4.6 Dividends to shareholders -1.6 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6 -1.7 Acquisitions & investments -0.2 -0.7 -4.4 0.0 0.0 Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.5 0.0 Share Issues / (Buybacks) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Translation differences 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other -1.3 -0.8 0.4 -0.0 0.0 Change in net cash / debt 3.9 -3.0 -10.0 14.4 2.8 B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )



VALUATION Dec11P Dec12F Dec13F Dec11 Dec12F Dec13F Rel to Sector

P/E N/A 6.7 6.1 N/A 0.4 0.4 Dividend Yield (%) 4.8 4.8 5.2 1.5 1.4 1.4 Free Cash Flow Yield (pre divs) (%) N/A 7.5 13.7 Price / Book 0.66 0.62 0.58 0.2 0.2 0.2 EV / Revenue 0.32 0.10 0.06 EV / EBITDA N/A 0.9 0.5 EV / EBITA N/A 1.1 0.7 EV / Operating Cashflow N/A 1.9 0.8 EV / Invested Capital 0.78 0.70 0.65 PEG (Hist P/E/4yr gwth) N/A

PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 Yr Absolute -2.6 0.9 1.5 -13.2 6.3 -8.3 Rel to ISEQ -3.0 1.2 -1.2 -12.6 -2.4 -25.3 Rel to E300 -2.0 -0.9 -8.8 -13.7 -1.7 -18.1 Rel to E300 Food Producers -1.4 2.0 -5.2 -20.0 -2.9 -20.7


2012 390 310 12.4 N/A 4.2 2011 465 300 310 15.8 9.5 12.5 2010 470 190 400 16.0 N/A N/A 2009 290 150 215 5.1 N/A N/A 2008 644 271 271 21.4 4.8 12.5 2007 716 470 630 58.3 N/A N/A


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A 10.3 Dividend (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.3 Revenue (%) -12.8 11.4 -44.8 7.0 5.0 EBITDA (%) -29.3 70.0 -98.5 N/A 7.8 P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y

EBITDA margin (%) 2.9 4.4 0.1 10.8 11.1 EBITA margin (%) N/A N/A N/A 6.1 6.2 Revenue / Capital Employed (x) 2.95 3.01 1.38 1.56 2.00 R E T U R N

ROCE (before tax, ex. invs) (%) 1.9 7.5 N/A 13.6 18.1 ROE (after tax) (%) 0.1 5.2 N/A 9.2 9.5 Ret. on Inv. Cap. (after tax) (%) N/A N/A N/A 4.7 5.4 WACC (%) 4.8 4.7 5.3 4.2 4.0 F I N A N C I A L / G E N E R A L

EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 5.2 16.3 0.0 13.4 17.3 Group Interest Cover (x) 1.1 8.9 N/A 10.8 14.0 Debt / EBITDA (x) 6.2 4.2 415.2 2.3 1.9 Debt / Equity (%) 33.6 37.6 63.3 33.8 27.0 Debt / Free Cash Flow (x) 2.8 N/A N/A 7.5 3.5 Avg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) 2.8 1.6 6.1 2.3 2.9 Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 3.3 1.3 0.8 0.8 0.8 Dividend Cover (x) 0.0 2.0 N/A 3.1 3.2 Working Capital / Revenue (%) 14.4 16.6 24.2 24.0 22.0 Net Capex / Depreciation (%) 86.3 96.7 97.3 67.1 63.9 Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) 63.0 N/A N/A 15.0 15.5

CAGR(%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS % Revenue (%) -10.1 -6.7 Goodbody Nominees 4.3 EBITDA (%) -58.1 -37.2 Bank of Ireland Nominees 4.0 EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) N/A N/A Irish Life Investment Mgrs 3.8 Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) N/A N/A Bank of New York Nominee 3.4 Dividend (%) 3.9 4.0 TSR -9.0 8.6


22 Davy Research

Frutarom

Analyst: Aiden O'Donnell/Jack Gorman Email: [email protected]/[email protected] Bloomberg: FRUT IT Phone: +353 1 6724211/+353 1 6148926 RIC: FRUT.TA Sector: Ingredients www.frutarom.com

ILs Price Price (c) Shares (m) Mkt. Cap ($m) E.V. ($m) Mkt. Cap. / EV (%) Free Float (%) Daily No. Shares Traded (m) Daily Value Traded ($m) 3690 918 57.3 525.6 647.6 81.2 56.1 0.062 0.580

SUMMARY ACCOUNTS Dec09 Dec10 Dec11 Dec12F Dec13F I N C O M E S T A T E M E N T ( $ M )

Revenue 425.2 451.1 518.4 624.7 641.8 EBITDA 65.3 80.7 81.3 100.7 103.4 Depreciation 18.2 18.1 20.6 26.9 25.0 Amortisation of intangibles 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Operating profit 47.1 62.7 60.7 73.8 78.4 Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 PBIT before exceptionals 47.1 62.7 60.7 73.8 78.4 Group net interest -3.8 -2.1 -2.5 -5.6 -3.9 Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total finance costs -3.8 -2.1 -2.5 -5.6 -3.9 Exceptionals 0.0 0.0 -5.3 0.0 0.0 PBT 43.3 60.6 52.9 68.2 74.6 Tax -9.7 -15.7 -10.8 -15.0 -15.8 Minorities (incl. pref. divs.) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Earnings (basic) 33.5 44.9 42.0 53.2 58.7 Average no. of shares (m) - basic 57.8 57.8 57.3 57.3 57.3 Average no. of shares (m) - diluted 57.8 57.8 57.5 57.5 57.5 P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )

EPS Basic 58.0 77.6 73.4 92.9 102.5 EPS Diluted (Adj) 58.0 77.6 73.1 92.6 102.2 Cash EPS (Diluted) 89.5 108.9 109.0 139.3 145.7 Dividend 4.3 4.7 5.9 7.4 8.1 NBV 550.9 622.2 687.3 774.3 868.4 NBV (incl. amortisation of intangibles) 550.9 622.2 687.3 774.3 868.4 C A S H F L O W ( $ M )

EBITDA 65.3 80.7 81.3 100.7 103.4 Change in working capital 31.9 -10.2 -29.1 -30.4 -11.5 Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other operating cashflows -0.9 -0.8 -4.8 0.0 1.9 Cash generated from operations 96.3 69.7 47.4 70.3 93.8 Net capital expenditure -3.7 -7.7 -7.5 -10.6 -10.9 Operating cashflow 92.6 62.0 39.9 59.7 82.9 Net interest -3.5 -1.7 -1.6 -5.6 -3.9 Tax -11.4 -7.6 -11.8 -15.0 -16.4 Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Free cash flow 77.7 52.7 26.5 39.1 62.6 Dividends to shareholders -2.5 -2.7 -3.4 -4.3 -4.5 Acquisitions & investments -37.4 -2.2 -99.7 -51.6 0.0 Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share Issues / (Buybacks) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Translation differences 0.0 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 Other -7.0 7.0 -7.9 0.7 0.6 Change in net cash / debt 30.8 54.2 -85.2 -16.8 58.0 B A L A N C E S H E E T ( $ M )


DIVISIONAL ANALYSIS Dec11 Dec12F Dec13F Dec11 Dec12F Dec13F Revenue ($m) Operating Profits ($m)

Food Flavours 369.9 466.1 480.1 48.8 58.1 62.3 Fine Ingredients 145.0 155.2 158.3 11.7 15.6 16.0 Sales & Marketing 3.5 3.4 3.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 Total 518.4 624.7 641.8 60.7 73.8 78.4


VALUATION Dec11 Dec12F Dec13F Dec11 Dec12F Dec13F Rel to Sector


PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 Yr Absolute 3.0 4.0 1.8 4.6 7.8 12.3 Rel to Ingredients 2.0 0.0 -8.4 -9.7 -10.5 -11.0 Rel to E300 3.1 -1.2 -12.9 4.5 -2.7 1.7 Rel to E300 Food Producers 3.7 1.8 -9.5 -3.1 -3.9 -1.5


2012 3762 3264 14.4 11.5 13.1 2011 3877 2968 3422 14.1 11.4 12.8 2010 3809 2861 3764 15.9 11.1 13.5 2009 3474 2526 3150 15.2 11.8 13.1 2008 3550 2140 2362 21.2 10.0 17.1 2007 4057 3120 3120 22.2 14.6 17.5

KEY RATIOS Dec09 Dec10 Dec11 Dec12F Dec13F G R O W T H

EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) -27.8 33.9 -5.8 26.6 10.4 Dividend (%) -17.3 9.3 25.5 25.4 9.5 Revenue (%) -10.2 6.1 14.9 20.5 2.7 EBITDA (%) -12.5 23.6 0.7 23.8 2.7 P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y



EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 17.0 38.7 32.0 17.9 26.9 Group Interest Cover (x) 12.3 30.0 23.9 13.1 20.4 Debt / EBITDA (x) 1.1 0.2 1.3 1.2 0.6 Debt / Equity (%) 23.3 5.5 26.7 27.5 12.9 Debt / Free Cash Flow (x) 1.0 0.4 4.0 3.1 1.0 Avg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) 4.3 4.4 4.1 4.9 4.1 Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 2.4 1.8 2.2 2.2 2.2 Dividend Cover (x) 13.5 16.5 12.4 12.5 12.6 Working Capital / Revenue (%) 27.3 27.9 30.3 30.0 31.0 Net Capex / Depreciation (%) 20.3 42.6 36.4 39.5 43.5 Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) 22.5 25.9 20.5 22.0 21.2

CAGR(%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS % Revenue (%) 12.5 N/A ICC Industries Inc 37.3 EBITDA (%) 12.6 N/A Gudman Invest 5.7 EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 8.6 N/A Goodman & Co Investment 5.1 Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 10.7 N/A CLAL Insurance 4.2 Dividend (%) 10.4 N/A TSR 3.3 22.7


23 Davy Research

Fyffes

Analyst: John O'Reilly Xetra: FQ3 Email: john.o'[email protected] Bloomberg: FFY ID Phone: +353 1 6148915 RIC: FFY.I Sector: Fruit distribution www.fyffes.com



Revenue 598.1 623.1 659.0 692.0 712.7 EBITDA 23.7 26.0 25.8 31.7 30.0 Depreciation 5.0 5.6 6.5 6.9 7.1 Amortisation of intangibles 3.4 4.4 2.9 2.9 2.9 Operating profit 15.4 16.0 16.4 21.8 20.0 Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 2.2 1.0 2.7 2.5 2.5 PBIT before exceptionals 17.6 17.0 19.1 24.3 22.5 Group net interest 0.6 0.1 -0.7 -1.0 -1.0 Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total finance costs 0.6 0.1 -0.7 -1.0 -1.0 Exceptionals -29.4 -8.2 -5.9 0.0 0.0 PBT -11.2 8.8 12.5 23.3 21.5 Tax 1.3 -1.5 -1.3 -3.7 -3.2 Minorities (incl. pref. divs.) -0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 Earnings (basic) -10.5 7.7 11.4 19.8 18.4 Average no. of shares (m) - basic 345.3 343.8 322.9 297.4 297.4 Average no. of shares (m) - diluted 346.4 344.6 323.0 297.4 297.4 P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )

EPS Basic -3.0 2.2 3.5 6.6 6.2 EPS Diluted (Adj) 5.2 5.5 6.1 7.6 7.2 Cash EPS (Diluted) 6.6 7.1 8.0 10.0 9.6 Dividend 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.4 2.3 NBV 43.9 45.0 45.7 49.9 53.8 NBV (incl. amortisation of intangibles) 46.6 49.1 51.2 56.4 61.3 C A S H F L O W ( € M )

EBITDA 23.7 26.0 25.8 31.7 30.0 Change in working capital -1.1 -3.4 -17.7 -4.7 -4.1 Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other operating cashflows -12.3 -2.5 -3.1 -2.0 -2.0 Cash generated from operations 10.4 20.0 5.0 24.9 24.0 Net capital expenditure -4.8 -5.8 -5.3 -6.9 -6.8 Operating cashflow 5.6 14.3 -0.3 18.0 17.1 Net interest 2.1 0.2 0.7 -1.0 -1.0 Tax -2.0 -1.4 -2.5 -3.7 -3.2 Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Free cash flow 5.7 13.1 -2.2 13.3 12.9 Dividends to shareholders -5.4 -5.7 -5.9 -7.3 -6.8 Acquisitions & investments -3.0 -0.9 -15.8 0.0 0.0 Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share Issues / (Buybacks) 0.0 -5.3 -12.7 0.0 0.0 Translation differences 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other 6.3 -1.3 -1.8 0.0 -0.3 Change in net cash / debt 3.7 0.5 -38.4 6.0 5.8 B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )

Property, plant & equipment 64.2 69.9 75.4 75.4 75.4 Intangible assets 16.6 20.9 22.4 22.4 22.4 Investments in associates / jv's 56.3 43.0 45.4 45.4 45.4 Working capital 19.6 22.1 35.4 40.1 44.2 Other 3.6 5.5 7.6 7.6 7.6 Capital Employed 160.4 161.3 186.2 191.0 195.0 Financed by Equity capital & reserves 151.7 148.1 135.8 148.3 159.9 Minority interests 2.1 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net Debt/(Cash) -36.6 -37.1 1.3 -4.7 -10.5 Deferred consideration/debt-related 14.8 21.7 16.0 16.0 16.0 Retirement benefit obligations 14.5 13.8 21.7 21.7 21.7 Net deferred tax -3.5 -3.4 -4.7 -4.7 -4.7 Other long-term liabilities 17.4 17.4 15.5 13.8 12.0 Capital Employed 160.4 161.3 186.2 191.0 195.0 Intangibles amortised 9.2 13.5 16.5 19.4 22.4 Capital employed inc. intangibles 169.5 174.9 202.7 210.4 217.4 Invested capital inc. intangibles 141.1 147.1 170.3 179.7 188.4



P/E 7.8 6.2 6.5 0.7 0.7 0.8 Dividend Yield (%) 4.1 5.2 4.9 3.0 2.3 2.2 Free Cash Flow Yield (pre divs) (%) N/A 9.5 9.2 Price / Book 1.03 0.94 0.87 1.2 1.2 1.1 EV / Revenue 0.17 0.15 0.14 EV / EBITDA 4.4 3.4 3.4 EV / EBITA 5.8 4.3 4.4 EV / Operating Cashflow N/A 5.9 5.9 EV / Invested Capital 0.93 0.84 0.77 PEG (Hist P/E/4yr gwth) 0.92

PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 Yr Absolute 4.0 4.7 9.3 17.5 30.5 38.2 Rel to ISEQ 3.6 5.0 6.4 18.3 19.8 12.7 Rel to E300 4.7 2.8 -1.8 16.8 20.6 23.5 Rel to E300 Food Producers 5.3 5.8 2.1 8.3 19.1 19.6


2012 47 37 7.8 6.7 7.2 2011 44 34 36 8.4 6.2 7.3 2010 47 30 37 11.9 5.8 7.5 2009 49 17 46 12.4 3.7 8.4 2008 101 21 25 21.2 4.7 13.4 2007 123 74 94 20.2 4.0 14.0


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 31.8 6.1 9.8 26.2 -5.9 Dividend (%) 10.0 6.1 10.3 26.4 -5.7 Revenue (%) -1.4 4.2 5.8 5.0 3.0 EBITDA (%) 51.9 9.4 -0.7 22.7 -5.2 P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y


ROCE (before tax, ex. invs) (%) 16.7 16.6 13.4 15.3 13.6 ROE (after tax) (%) 9.7 11.8 12.4 14.2 12.2 Ret. on Inv. Cap. (after tax) (%) 11.0 12.8 12.6 13.3 12.0 Cost of Equity (%) 8.4 8.0 7.7 5.7 5.7 F I N A N C I A L / G E N E R A L

EBITDA Int. Cover (x) N/A N/A 35.6 31.7 30.0 Group Interest Cover (x) N/A N/A 26.3 24.3 22.5 Debt / EBITDA (x) N/A N/A 0.7 0.4 0.2 Debt / Equity (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Debt / Free Cash Flow (x) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Avg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 9.1 11.3 20.2 15.5 15.5 Dividend Cover (x) 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 Working Capital / Revenue (%) 3.3 3.5 5.4 5.8 6.2 Net Capex / Depreciation (%) 96.1 102.2 82.2 100.0 95.9 Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) N/A 17.3 10.2 16.0 15.0

CAGR(%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS % Revenue (%) 3.5 -10.3 Balken Investment Co 12.1 EBITDA (%) 4.4 -8.7 Fidelity Management and Research 10.5 EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 1.2 -7.0 Sparinvest Holding A/S 6.3 Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 5.0 -6.8 Farringdon Capital Management 4.8 Dividend (%) -10.7 -8.6 Gartmore Investment Ltd. 3.8 TSR -5.6 2.8


24 Davy Research

Givaudan

Analyst: Aiden O'Donnell/Jack Gorman Email: [email protected]/[email protected] Bloomberg: GIVN VX Phone: +353 1 6724211/+353 1 6148926 RIC: GIVN.VX Sector: Ingredients www.givaudan.com

Price (chf) Shares (m) Mkt. Cap (CHF) E.V. (CHF) Mkt. Cap. / EV (%) Free Float (%) Daily No. Shares Traded (m) Daily Value Traded (CHF) 90100 9.2 8319.8 9573.0 86.9 77.1 0.026 24.233

SUMMARY ACCOUNTS Dec09 Dec10 Dec11 Dec12F Dec13F I N C O M E S T A T E M E N T ( C H F )

Revenue 3959.0 4239.0 3915.0 4158.2 4333.2 EBITDA 756.0 865.0 754.0 796.7 938.5 Depreciation 119.0 115.0 105.0 112.3 117.0 Amortisation of intangibles 176.0 194.0 205.0 163.0 177.0 Operating profit 461.0 556.0 444.0 521.4 644.5 Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share of associate / JV after-tax profits -1.0 0.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0 PBIT before exceptionals 460.0 556.0 443.0 521.4 644.5 Group net interest -193.0 -119.0 -125.0 -111.3 -112.3 Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total finance costs -193.0 -119.0 -125.0 -111.3 -112.3 Exceptionals -65.0 -99.0 -37.0 -30.0 0.0 PBT 202.0 338.0 281.0 380.1 532.2 Tax -67.0 -97.0 -66.0 -77.9 -106.4 Minorities (incl. pref. divs.) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Earnings (basic) 135.0 241.0 215.0 302.2 425.8 Average no. of shares (m) - basic 7.9 9.0 9.1 9.1 9.1 Average no. of shares (m) - diluted 8.0 9.0 9.1 9.1 9.1 P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C H F )

EPS Basic 1701.1 2684.6 2364.6 3323.6 4682.9 EPS Diluted (Adj) 5080.0 6577.1 4953.0 5386.0 6203.8 Cash EPS (Diluted) 6573.4 7850.0 6101.0 6613.8 7483.1 Dividend 2150.0 2200.0 2200.0 2359.0 2587.0 NBV 35288.8 38143.3 38213.5 39446.8 41361.3 NBV (incl. amortisation of intangibles) 43458.5 47496.5 49693.9 52709.5 56559.3 C A S H F L O W ( C H F )

EBITDA 756.0 865.0 754.0 796.7 938.5 Change in working capital 58.0 -113.0 -213.0 -29.5 -7.9 Share-based payments 0.0 13.0 10.0 -13.0 -10.0 Other operating cashflows -25.0 23.0 -22.0 29.9 -3.0 Cash generated from operations 789.0 788.0 529.0 784.1 917.6 Net capital expenditure -149.0 -177.0 -262.0 -213.3 -198.9 Operating cashflow 640.0 611.0 267.0 570.8 718.7 Net interest -125.0 -116.0 -77.0 -87.3 -82.3 Tax -50.0 -59.0 -73.0 -77.9 -106.4 Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Free cash flow 465.0 436.0 117.0 405.6 530.0 Dividends to shareholders -71.0 -188.0 -196.0 -206.3 -237.6 Acquisitions & investments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share Issues / (Buybacks) 477.0 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Translation differences -2.0 -110.0 -9.0 0.0 0.0 Other 65.0 748.0 -12.0 0.5 -0.1 Change in net cash / debt 934.0 895.0 -100.0 199.8 292.3 B A L A N C E S H E E T ( C H F )


DIVISIONAL ANALYSIS Dec11 Dec12F Dec13F Dec11 Dec12F Dec13F Revenue (CHF) EBITDA (CHF)

Fragrance 1833.0 1958.3 2035.4 360.0 404.9 432.9 Flavour 2082.0 2199.8 2297.8 431.0 451.8 505.5 Total 3915.0 4158.1 4333.2 791.0 856.7 938.4




PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 Yr Absolute -0.2 -5.2 0.1 4.0 0.7 15.7 Rel to SMI 1.2 -5.0 -8.4 -0.2 -6.5 0.1 Rel to E300 0.4 -6.9 -10.1 3.7 -5.8 -0.2 Rel to E300 Food Producers 1.0 -4.2 -6.5 -3.8 -7.0 -3.3


2012 96300 83400 19.8 13.7 18.1 2011 99214 70350 89500 19.4 14.0 15.9 2010 102241 80709 98530 20.0 17.0 18.1 2009 83346 53600 80709 18.0 10.9 14.3 2008 105816 68545 76617 18.5 11.6 14.7 2007 114580 94745 100649 19.9 16.6 17.9


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) -6.0 29.5 -24.7 8.7 15.2 Dividend (%) 7.5 2.3 0.0 7.2 9.7 Revenue (%) -3.1 7.1 -7.6 6.2 4.2 EBITDA (%) 2.9 14.4 -12.8 5.7 17.8 P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y




CAGR(%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS % Revenue (%) 6.1 N/A William Gates 10.3 EBITDA (%) 3.9 N/A Nestle SA 10.0 EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) -5.4 N/A Harris Associates 5.2 Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) -4.9 N/A Dividend (%) 4.6 N/A TSR 0.0 5.6


25 Davy Research

Glanbia

Analyst: John O'Reilly Xetra: GL9 Email: john.o'[email protected] Bloomberg: GLB ID Phone: +353 1 6148915 RIC: GL9.I Sector: Dairy processing www.glanbia.com



Revenue 1830.3 2167.0 2671.2 2688.5 2728.8 EBITDA 152.5 184.2 213.6 237.5 248.1 Depreciation 28.7 32.6 34.1 35.5 39.3 Amortisation of intangibles 13.9 15.1 18.5 23.4 22.2 Operating profit 111.2 136.5 161.0 178.6 186.6 Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 10.2 10.1 14.3 14.1 14.8 PBIT before exceptionals 121.4 146.6 175.4 192.8 201.4 Group net interest -24.0 -22.1 -27.9 -30.3 -26.1 Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total finance costs -24.0 -22.1 -27.9 -30.3 -26.1 Exceptionals 34.9 9.7 -7.6 0.0 0.0 PBT 132.3 134.2 139.8 162.5 175.3 Tax -19.1 -25.5 -27.0 -32.6 -35.3 Minorities (incl. pref. divs.) -0.5 -0.6 -0.6 -0.5 -0.5 Earnings (basic) 112.7 108.0 112.2 129.3 139.5 Average no. of shares (m) - basic 293.0 293.1 293.5 293.5 293.5 Average no. of shares (m) - diluted 293.0 293.1 293.5 293.5 293.5 P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )


EBITDA 152.5 184.2 213.6 237.5 248.1 Change in working capital -32.9 -63.4 -49.0 0.3 -3.6 Share-based payments -15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other operating cashflows 0.0 -13.6 -19.2 -17.0 -17.0 Cash generated from operations 104.7 107.2 145.4 220.8 227.5 Net capital expenditure -51.2 -36.0 -48.5 -78.1 -47.2 Operating cashflow 53.5 71.3 96.9 142.7 180.3 Net interest -25.1 -22.6 -26.6 -30.3 -26.1 Tax -5.5 -12.0 -12.7 -32.6 -35.3 Dividends from associates 17.9 11.2 14.8 12.0 12.6 Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Free cash flow 40.8 47.9 72.3 91.8 131.5 Dividends to shareholders -19.5 -20.5 -22.9 -25.5 -26.8 Acquisitions & investments 0.3 0.0 -115.4 0.0 0.0 Business disposals 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share Issues / (Buybacks) 0.0 0.5 -0.9 0.0 0.0 Translation differences 3.5 -14.9 -6.6 0.0 0.0 Other -15.7 20.9 1.3 -0.0 0.0 Change in net cash / debt 9.5 34.5 -72.2 66.3 104.8 B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )


GEOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS Dec11P Dec12F Dec13F Dec11P Dec12F Dec13F Revenue (€m) Operating Profits (€m)

US cheese & global nutrition 1316.9 1402.6 1443.2 108.0 127.2 135.5 Dairy Ireland 1353.3 1284.6 1284.6 53.6 51.4 50.1 Other 1.0 1.0 1.0 -0.7 0.0 1.0 Total 2671.2 2688.2 2728.8 160.9 178.6 186.6

HALF YEARLY DATA Jun08 Dec08 Jun09 CALENDAR Date Ex-Div Sales (€m) 1106.2 1126.0 944.9 Interims 29-08-12 05-09-12 Pretax Profit (€m) 53.1 67.2 38.0 Finals 29-02-12 28-03-12 EPS adjusted (c) 15.7 20.2 12.3 AGM 09-05-12 DPS (c) 2.8 3.8 2.9 Updated 16-07-12





2012 638 468 14.7 11.1 12.7 2011 502 355 463 14.0 9.9 12.0 2010 368 243 368 12.0 6.8 9.9 2009 300 184 289 9.9 5.7 7.3 2008 531 180 214 22.6 6.0 15.1 2007 508 312 464 22.6 15.0 17.7


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) -14.4 24.1 21.7 9.4 6.2 Dividend (%) 6.9 2.3 18.1 5.0 5.1 Revenue (%) -18.0 18.4 23.3 0.6 1.5 EBITDA (%) -9.3 20.8 16.0 11.2 4.5 P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y



EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 6.3 8.3 7.6 7.8 9.5 Group Interest Cover (x) 5.1 6.6 6.3 6.4 7.7 Debt / EBITDA (x) 2.9 2.2 2.2 1.7 1.2 Debt / Equity (%) 148.8 96.2 91.9 66.2 41.2 Debt / Free Cash Flow (x) 10.9 8.5 6.6 4.5 2.4 Avg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) 5.4 5.2 6.3 6.8 7.2 Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) N/A 4.5 3.6 2.6 2.6 Dividend Cover (x) 4.5 5.4 5.6 5.8 5.9 Working Capital / Revenue (%) 7.0 8.5 9.0 8.9 8.9 Net Capex / Depreciation (%) 178.1 110.4 142.0 220.0 120.0 Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) 14.4 19.0 19.3 20.1 20.1

CAGR(%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS % Revenue (%) 7.6 -0.1 Glanbia Co-op Society Ltd 54.6 EBITDA (%) 14.0 4.0 Prudential 4.1 EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 15.5 11.3 F&C Asset Management 3.1 Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 13.2 5.5 Dividend (%) 7.4 6.2 TSR 11.3 17.4


26 Davy Research

Greencore Group

Analyst: John O' Reilly/Aiden O' Donnell Xetra: GC6 Email: john.o'[email protected]/[email protected] Bloomberg: GNC LN Phone: +353 1 6148915/+353 1 6724211 RIC: GNC.L Sector: Food manufacturers www.greencore.ie


SUMMARY ACCOUNTS N/A Sep10 Sep11 Sep12F Sep13F I N C O M E S T A T E M E N T ( £ M )

Revenue N/A 739.9 804.2 1187.5 1197.4 EBITDA N/A 68.8 68.6 95.7 100.4 Depreciation N/A 16.8 17.1 24.0 24.0 Amortisation of intangibles N/A 2.0 2.6 9.5 9.5 Operating profit N/A 50.0 48.9 62.2 66.9 Other income from operations N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share of associate / JV after-tax profits N/A 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 PBIT before exceptionals N/A 50.4 49.3 62.7 67.4 Group net interest N/A -23.8 -13.9 -22.0 -19.0 Other finance costs N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total finance costs N/A -23.8 -13.9 -22.0 -19.0 Exceptionals N/A 2.3 -24.3 -7.0 0.0 PBT N/A 29.0 11.2 33.7 48.4 Tax N/A -4.7 8.7 -2.7 -3.9 Minorities (incl. pref. divs.) N/A -0.5 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 Earnings (basic) N/A 29.7 19.1 30.3 43.8 Average no. of shares (m) - basic N/A 259.3 273.9 383.4 383.4 Average no. of shares (m) - diluted N/A 262.5 276.3 383.4 383.4 P E R S H A R E D A T A ( P )

EPS Basic N/A 11.4 7.0 7.9 11.4 EPS Diluted (Adj) N/A 11.3 10.4 11.5 13.2 Cash EPS (Diluted) N/A 17.7 16.6 17.7 19.4 Dividend N/A 7.5 5.4 4.3 4.9 NBV N/A 56.9 69.4 53.3 59.5 NBV (incl. amortisation of intangibles) N/A 57.7 71.0 57.0 65.6 C A S H F L O W ( £ M )

EBITDA N/A 68.8 68.6 95.7 100.4 Change in working capital N/A 21.3 -1.6 6.3 -0.3 Share-based payments N/A 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.7 Other operating cashflows N/A -13.4 -34.9 -19.0 -10.7 Cash generated from operations N/A 78.2 33.9 84.7 91.1 Net capital expenditure N/A -21.3 -23.0 -38.0 -31.1 Operating cashflow N/A 56.9 10.9 46.7 60.0 Net interest N/A -24.1 -19.8 -22.0 -19.0 Tax N/A -1.1 -2.4 -2.7 -3.9 Dividends from associates N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Dividends to minorities N/A 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0 Free cash flow N/A 31.7 -11.6 22.0 37.1 Dividends to shareholders N/A -11.4 -10.8 -17.6 -20.2 Acquisitions & investments N/A 90.1 -3.2 -134.7 0.0 Business disposals N/A 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 Share Issues / (Buybacks) N/A -1.7 67.0 0.0 0.0 Translation differences N/A -1.8 -0.8 0.0 0.0 Other N/A -271.0 -17.2 -16.4 -3.0 Change in net cash / debt N/A -164.1 24.3 -146.6 13.9 B A L A N C E S H E E T ( £ M )

Property, plant & equipment N/A 184.5 214.8 244.8 252.0 Intangible assets N/A 343.2 472.2 468.7 459.2 Investments in associates / jv's N/A 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 Working capital N/A -96.7 -101.8 -108.1 -107.8 Other N/A 37.5 27.5 49.3 49.3 Capital Employed N/A 469.1 613.3 655.3 653.2 Financed by Equity capital & reserves N/A 149.3 191.6 204.4 228.0 Minority interests N/A 2.4 3.0 3.0 3.0 Preference shares N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net Debt/(Cash) N/A 164.1 139.8 286.4 272.5 Deferred consideration/debt-related N/A 0.0 113.3 0.0 0.0 Retirement benefit obligations N/A 100.5 130.2 118.2 106.2 Net deferred tax N/A -2.1 -22.4 -22.4 -22.4 Other long-term liabilities N/A 54.9 57.7 65.8 66.0 Capital Employed N/A 469.1 613.3 655.3 653.2 Intangibles amortised N/A 2.0 4.7 14.2 23.7 Capital employed inc. intangibles N/A 471.1 617.9 669.5 676.9 Invested capital inc. intangibles N/A 317.9 452.4 507.9 527.1

DIVISIONAL ANALYSIS Sep11 Sep12F Sep13F Sep11 Sep12F Sep13F Revenue (£m) Op. Profit (pre am.) (£m)

Ingredients & Agribusiness 72.0 73.0 74.0 2.2 2.2 2.2 Food Manufacturers 732.2 1114.5 1123.0 49.3 69.5 74.2 Total 804.2 1187.5 1197.0 51.5 71.7 76.4



P/E 7.6 6.9 6.0 0.5 0.5 0.4 Dividend Yield (%) 6.8 5.4 6.2 2.3 1.7 1.8 Free Cash Flow Yield (pre divs) (%) N/A 7.1 12.0 Price / Book 1.14 1.49 1.33 0.4 0.6 0.5 EV / Revenue 0.59 0.50 0.49 EV / EBITDA 6.9 6.2 5.8 EV / EBITA 9.2 8.3 7.6 EV / Operating Cashflow 43.6 12.8 9.7 EV / Invested Capital 1.05 1.18 1.11 PEG (Hist P/E/4yr gwth) N/A

PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 Yr Absolute -1.3 5.0 2.9 14.0 53.0 48.4 Rel to FTSE All Share Index -0.3 3.4 -4.4 17.8 47.1 39.8 Rel to E300 -0.7 2.0 -6.4 21.0 49.1 48.0 Rel to E300 Food Producers -0.2 5.0 -2.7 12.2 47.3 43.4


2012 84 51 8.1 4.9 6.9 2011 91 47 52 8.1 4.1 6.0 2010 100 69 86 8.8 6.0 7.4 2009 121 48 97 8.5 3.3 5.8 2008 274 58 72 15.1 3.4 9.1 2007 297 218 274 18.0 13.3 15.0

KEY RATIOS N/A Sep10 Sep11 Sep12F Sep13F G R O W T H

EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) N/A N/A -7.4 10.0 14.8 Dividend (%) N/A N/A -28.0 -21.3 16.2 Revenue (%) N/A N/A 8.7 47.7 0.8 EBITDA (%) N/A N/A -0.3 39.5 4.9 P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y

EBITDA margin (%) N/A 9.3 8.5 8.1 8.4 EBITA margin (%) N/A 7.0 6.4 6.0 6.4 Revenue / Capital Employed (x) N/A 1.57 1.48 1.85 1.78 R E T U R N

ROCE (before tax, ex. invs) (%) N/A 12.3 9.5 11.1 11.4 ROE (after tax) (%) N/A 23.4 16.6 21.2 21.5 Ret. on Inv. Cap. (after tax) (%) N/A 15.6 12.1 14.2 13.9 WACC (%) N/A 5.9 8.3 8.6 6.5 F I N A N C I A L / G E N E R A L

EBITDA Int. Cover (x) N/A 2.9 4.9 4.4 5.3 Group Interest Cover (x) N/A 2.1 3.6 2.8 3.5 Debt / EBITDA (x) N/A 2.4 3.7 3.0 2.7 Debt / Equity (%) N/A 108.1 130.1 138.2 118.0 Debt / Free Cash Flow (x) N/A 5.2 N/A 13.0 7.3 Avg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) N/A 14.5 9.1 10.3 6.8 Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) N/A 47.9 84.1 38.3 34.4 Dividend Cover (x) N/A 1.5 1.9 2.7 2.7 Working Capital / Revenue (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Net Capex / Depreciation (%) N/A 126.9 134.6 158.3 129.7 Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) N/A 16.2 N/A 8.0 8.0

CAGR(%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS % Revenue (%) N/A N/A Polaris Capital Mgmt 15.0 EBITDA (%) N/A N/A Letko Brosseau & Assoc 11.9 EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) N/A N/A Sheffield Asset Management 7.2 Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) N/A N/A Gartmore 3.7 Dividend (%) N/A N/A Artemis 3.0 TSR -18.9 -4.4


27 Davy Research

Heineken

Analyst: Barry Gallagher Email: [email protected] Bloomberg: HEIA NA Phone: +353 1 6149194 RIC: HEIN.AS Sector: Beverage www.heinekeninternational.com



Revenue 14701.0 16133.0 17123.0 17638.6 18285.4 EBITDA 2713.0 3559.0 3620.0 3749.0 3932.7 Depreciation 1000.0 1050.0 998.0 1018.0 1043.4 Amortisation of intangibles 83.0 79.0 170.0 190.0 200.0 Operating profit 1630.0 2430.0 2452.0 2541.0 2689.3 Other income from operations 127.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.0 193.0 241.0 226.0 260.0 PBIT before exceptionals 1757.0 2623.0 2693.0 2767.0 2949.3 Group net interest -329.0 -509.0 -430.0 -446.0 -407.0 Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total finance costs -329.0 -509.0 -430.0 -446.0 -407.0 Exceptionals 0.0 -132.0 -242.0 -190.0 -170.0 PBT 1428.0 1982.0 2021.0 2131.0 2372.3 Tax -286.0 -403.0 -465.0 -560.2 -616.2 Minorities (incl. pref. divs.) -124.0 -132.0 -130.0 -140.0 -150.0 Earnings (basic) 1018.0 1447.0 1426.0 1430.7 1606.0 Average no. of shares (m) - basic 488.7 562.2 586.0 576.0 576.0 Average no. of shares (m) - diluted 490.0 563.4 586.0 576.0 576.0 P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )


EBITDA 2713.0 3559.0 3620.0 3749.0 3932.7 Change in working capital 220.0 454.0 251.0 91.2 36.7 Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other operating cashflows 96.0 -465.0 -151.0 -16.0 4.0 Cash generated from operations 3029.0 3548.0 3720.0 3824.2 3973.4 Net capital expenditure -894.0 -648.0 -755.0 -1250.0 -1100.0 Operating cashflow 2135.0 2900.0 2965.0 2574.2 2873.4 Net interest -467.0 -539.0 -420.0 -446.0 -407.0 Tax -245.0 -443.0 -526.0 -560.2 -616.2 Dividends from associates 62.0 91.0 137.0 0.0 0.0 Dividends to minorities -70.0 -80.0 -91.0 -91.0 -91.0 Free cash flow 1415.0 1929.0 2065.0 1476.9 1759.2 Dividends to shareholders -322.0 -403.0 -489.0 -508.0 -530.0 Acquisitions & investments 1466.0 -1448.0 -899.0 0.0 0.0 Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share Issues / (Buybacks) -13.0 -381.0 -687.0 -250.0 -250.0 Translation differences 5.0 0.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 Other -1268.0 -95.0 -114.0 0.4 0.2 Change in net cash / debt 1283.0 -398.0 -118.0 719.3 979.4 B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )

Property, plant & equipment 6017.0 7687.0 7860.0 8014.0 7963.6 Intangible assets 7135.0 10890.0 10835.0 11048.6 11041.6 Investments in associates / jv's 1995.0 2776.0 2893.0 3054.0 3474.0 Working capital -376.0 -769.0 -1012.0 -1103.2 -1140.0 Other 319.0 655.0 293.0 293.0 293.0 Capital Employed 15090.0 21239.0 20869.0 21306.4 21632.2 Financed by Equity capital & reserves 5351.0 10228.0 9774.0 10902.7 12178.0 Minority interests 296.0 289.0 318.0 346.0 376.0 Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net Debt/(Cash) 8058.0 8456.0 8574.0 7854.7 6875.2 Deferred consideration/debt-related 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Retirement benefit obligations 634.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net deferred tax 225.0 740.0 580.0 580.0 580.0 Other long-term liabilities 525.6 1526.0 1623.0 1623.0 1623.0 Capital Employed 15090.0 21239.0 20869.0 21306.4 21632.2 Intangibles amortised 265.0 344.0 514.0 704.0 904.0 Capital employed inc. intangibles 15355.0 21583.0 21383.0 22010.4 22536.2 Invested capital inc. intangibles 13970.0 19317.0 19180.0 19807.4 20333.2 * EBIT BEIA - company definition

GEOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS Dec11P Dec12F Dec13F Dec11P Dec12F Dec13F Revenue (€m) Operating Profits (€m)*

Western Europe 7752.0 7695.0 7778.0 961.0 948.6 980.0 Central & Eastern Europe 3229.0 3370.0 3497.0 329.0 343.6 360.0 Americas 4029.0 4193.0 4359.0 576.0 607.8 641.0 Africa & Middle East 2223.0 2466.0 2712.0 534.0 587.0 651.0 Asia Pacific 216.0 240.0 264.0 65.0 84.0 92.0 Head Office/eliminations -326.0 -325.0 -325.0 -13.0 -30.0 -35.0 Total 17123.0 17639.0 18285.0 2452.0 2541.0 2689.0




PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 Yr Absolute -1.2 0.1 14.4 11.6 23.2 26.5 Rel to Amsterdam Exchange -1.1 -0.8 0.7 10.4 16.9 12.5 Rel to E300 -0.5 -1.8 2.7 10.9 13.9 13.0 Rel to E300 Beverages -2.6 -0.9 -1.2 -7.6 -5.1 -15.1


2012 4598 3502 17.1 13.8 15.2 2011 4313 3205 3577 17.7 12.7 15.3 2010 3855 3290 3669 18.6 15.5 17.0 2009 3425 1997 3327 16.6 9.4 12.7 2008 4403 1968 2190 23.2 8.4 15.9 2007 4830 3579 4422 25.4 18.7 22.3


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 4.1 20.0 4.3 4.0 9.9 Dividend (%) 11.3 10.1 3.9 10.1 10.3 Revenue (%) 2.7 9.7 6.1 3.0 3.7 EBITDA (%) -4.0 31.2 1.7 3.6 4.9 P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y



EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 8.2 7.0 8.4 8.4 9.7 Group Interest Cover (x) 5.3 5.2 6.3 6.2 7.2 Debt / EBITDA (x) 3.0 2.4 2.4 2.1 1.7 Debt / Equity (%) 142.7 80.4 85.0 69.8 54.8 Debt / Free Cash Flow (x) 5.7 4.4 4.2 5.3 3.9 Avg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) 3.8 6.2 5.0 5.4 5.5 Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 3.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A Dividend Cover (x) 3.1 3.4 3.4 3.2 3.2 Working Capital / Revenue (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Net Capex / Depreciation (%) 89.4 61.7 75.7 122.8 105.4 Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) 20.0 20.3 23.0 26.3 26.0

CAGR(%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS % Revenue (%) 10.2 N/A Heineken Holding NV 50.0 EBITDA (%) 11.4 N/A FEMSA 10.1 EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 7.3 N/A Credit Suisse 3.4 Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 5.0 N/A Dividend (%) 5.7 N/A TSR 0.8 3.7


28 Davy Research

Kerry Group

Analyst: John O'Reilly Xetra: KRZ Email: john.o'[email protected] Bloomberg: KYG ID Phone: +353 1 6148915 RIC: KYGa.I Sector: Ingredients www.kerrygroup.com



Revenue 4520.7 4960.0 5302.2 5851.3 6094.9 EBITDA 519.6 618.6 601.6 694.0 739.7 Depreciation 97.2 148.4 100.8 133.0 136.0 Amortisation of intangibles 16.8 16.1 19.3 25.7 30.9 Operating profit 405.6 454.2 481.5 535.4 572.8 Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 PBIT before exceptionals 405.6 454.2 481.5 535.4 572.8 Group net interest -69.8 -60.5 -46.0 -55.5 -46.5 Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total finance costs -69.8 -60.5 -46.0 -55.5 -46.5 Exceptionals -83.9 -0.8 -1.8 -125.0 -75.0 PBT 251.9 392.8 433.7 354.9 451.3 Tax -50.6 -68.6 -72.7 -81.6 -89.5 Minorities (incl. pref. divs.) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Earnings (basic) 201.2 324.2 361.0 273.3 361.9 Average no. of shares (m) - basic 175.0 175.3 175.5 175.6 175.7 Average no. of shares (m) - diluted 175.0 175.3 175.6 175.7 175.8 P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )


EBITDA 519.6 618.6 601.6 694.0 739.7 Change in working capital 132.4 -21.5 -3.8 -48.1 -37.4 Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other operating cashflows -42.3 -68.9 -50.7 -100.7 -100.7 Cash generated from operations 609.8 528.2 547.1 545.3 601.6 Net capital expenditure -108.7 -151.0 -164.1 -199.9 -207.2 Operating cashflow 501.0 377.2 383.0 345.3 394.4 Net interest -78.0 -57.6 -46.6 -55.5 -46.5 Tax -57.1 -54.2 -75.9 -81.6 -89.5 Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Free cash flow 366.0 265.3 260.5 208.2 258.4 Dividends to shareholders -40.8 -45.8 -52.4 -62.2 -68.5 Acquisitions & investments -291.1 -150.7 -359.2 -15.0 0.0 Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share Issues / (Buybacks) 3.0 3.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 Translation differences 4.2 -40.5 -20.3 0.0 0.0 Other -37.3 15.6 -4.4 1.0 0.0 Change in net cash / debt 4.0 47.6 -175.8 132.0 189.9 B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )


DIVISIONAL ANALYSIS Dec11P Dec12F Dec13F Dec11P Dec12F Dec13F Revenue (€m) Op. Profit (pre am.) (€m)

Ingredients 3706.4 4215.2 4435.1 439.0 506.7 543.3 Foods 1673.5 1718.8 1752.6 130.0 132.5 137.6 Other -77.7 -82.7 -92.8 -68.2 -78.2 -77.2 Total 5302.2 5851.3 6094.9 500.8 561.0 603.7






2012 3900 2745 18.3 14.3 16.1 2011 3011 2367 2829 15.9 12.8 14.3 2010 2703 2050 2497 16.2 12.6 14.5 2009 2200 1320 2058 14.3 9.0 11.3 2008 2245 1310 1310 16.8 9.1 13.1 2007 2275 1778 2170 17.0 13.3 15.4


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 8.2 15.4 11.1 10.2 9.0 Dividend (%) 11.1 15.2 11.8 10.0 10.0 Revenue (%) -5.6 9.7 6.9 10.4 4.2 EBITDA (%) 3.3 19.0 -2.7 15.4 6.6 P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y




CAGR(%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS % Revenue (%) 2.7 5.9 Kerry Co-Op Creameries 17.1 EBITDA (%) 4.3 6.2 Prudential 3.0 EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 9.8 9.3 Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 7.4 7.8 Dividend (%) 12.3 12.4 TSR 17.4 10.9


29 Davy Research

Naturex

Analyst: Jack Gorman/Aiden O'Donnell Email: [email protected]/[email protected] Bloomberg: NRX FP Phone: +353 1 6148926/+353 1 6724211 RIC: NATU.PA Sector: Ingredients www.naturex.com



Revenue 101.9 226.3 253.6 292.0 315.2 EBITDA 18.0 36.9 39.7 47.0 51.4 Depreciation 4.6 9.8 10.9 12.0 13.0 Amortisation of intangibles 0.7 1.5 1.8 3.0 3.0 Operating profit 13.1 27.3 30.1 35.0 38.4 Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share of associate / JV after-tax profits -1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 PBIT before exceptionals 11.9 27.3 30.1 35.0 38.4 Group net interest -4.1 -5.6 -4.8 -4.5 -4.0 Other finance costs -0.5 -0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total finance costs -4.7 -6.2 -4.6 -4.4 -4.0 Exceptionals 0.0 0.0 -1.6 -1.4 0.0 PBT 7.2 21.1 23.9 29.2 34.4 Tax -1.9 -6.2 -8.3 -9.5 -11.0 Minorities (incl. pref. divs.) 0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Earnings (basic) 5.2 14.8 15.6 19.7 23.4 Average no. of shares (m) - basic 3.0 6.4 6.7 7.7 7.7 Average no. of shares (m) - diluted 3.2 6.6 7.0 7.9 7.9 P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )


EBITDA 18.0 36.9 39.7 47.0 51.4 Change in working capital 0.0 -10.1 -11.9 -15.5 -10.0 Share-based payments 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 Other operating cashflows 0.5 -3.6 2.3 1.4 0.0 Cash generated from operations 18.7 23.4 30.2 33.1 41.6 Net capital expenditure -8.2 -10.8 -21.0 -20.0 -20.0 Operating cashflow 10.5 12.5 9.1 13.1 21.6 Net interest -4.1 -6.1 -4.7 -4.5 -4.0 Tax -0.6 -6.3 -4.5 -9.5 -11.0 Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Free cash flow 5.7 0.1 -0.1 -0.9 6.6 Dividends to shareholders -0.4 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 Acquisitions & investments -91.1 -5.0 -4.6 -25.0 0.0 Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share Issues / (Buybacks) 82.2 0.6 47.6 0.0 0.0 Translation differences -1.2 -0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Other -4.4 -8.8 -8.9 -0.0 0.9 Change in net cash / debt -9.2 -13.3 34.0 -26.0 7.4 B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )


DIVISIONAL ANALYSIS Dec11P Dec12F Dec13F Revenue (€m)

Food & Beverage 153.4 177.7 191.6 Nutrition & Health 84.5 95.8 103.2 Personal Care 3.0 6.6 8.2 Miscellaneous 12.7 11.9 12.2 Total 253.6 292.0 315.2



P/E 21.4 19.9 17.9 1.2 1.2 1.2 Dividend Yield (%) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 Free Cash Flow Yield (pre divs) (%) N/A N/A 1.8 Price / Book 1.73 1.61 1.47 0.5 0.5 0.5 EV / Revenue 1.87 1.58 1.44 EV / EBITDA 12.0 9.8 8.8 EV / EBITA 16.5 13.2 11.8 EV / Operating Cashflow N/A 35.2 21.0 EV / Invested Capital 1.54 1.30 1.21 PEG (Hist P/E/4yr gwth) 1.36

PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 Yr Absolute 4.7 15.2 11.0 5.6 2.1 1.3 Rel to CAC 40 5.4 11.1 -1.9 6.9 -5.5 -3.3 Rel to E300 5.5 13.1 -0.3 4.9 -5.6 -9.5 Rel to E300 Food Producers 6.1 16.5 3.6 -2.7 -6.8 -12.3


2012 5400 4300 24.0 18.1 20.7 2011 6005 4025 5190 34.0 18.8 24.9 2010 4420 2679 4073 38.2 17.2 28.9 2009 3155 1950 2785 20.2 11.7 16.9 2008 3625 1993 2518 22.9 12.5 17.2 2007 5365 3098 3625 30.5 19.4 26.3


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 22.0 36.5 9.9 7.8 10.9 Dividend (%) 10.0 -9.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Revenue (%) 9.4 122.0 12.0 15.2 7.9 EBITDA (%) 14.6 104.6 7.5 18.4 9.4 P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y



EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 4.4 6.6 8.3 10.4 12.9 Group Interest Cover (x) 2.9 4.9 6.3 7.8 9.6 Debt / EBITDA (x) 4.9 2.8 1.7 2.0 1.7 Debt / Equity (%) 61.3 60.5 28.9 37.0 31.2 Debt / Free Cash Flow (x) 15.6 804.1 N/A N/A 13.2 Avg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) 4.9 5.8 5.6 5.5 4.4 Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 1.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 Dividend Cover (x) 15.0 22.5 24.7 26.7 29.6 Working Capital / Revenue (%) 77.6 42.1 43.4 43.0 43.0 Net Capex / Depreciation (%) 179.2 110.1 193.9 166.7 153.8 Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) 27.0 29.6 34.6 32.5 32.0

CAGR(%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS % Revenue (%) 30.8 N/A SGD 23.1 EBITDA (%) 32.9 N/A NATRA Group 22.9 EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 7.4 N/A Odyssee Venture 4.6 Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 9.4 N/A Dividend (%) N/A N/A TSR 2.5 14.0


30 Davy Research

Origin Enterprises

Analyst: John O'Reilly Xetra: OIZ Email: john.o'[email protected] Bloomberg: OGN ID Phone: +353 1 6148915 RIC: OGN.I Sector: Food & Beverage www.originenterprises.ie


SUMMARY ACCOUNTS Jul09 Jul10 Jul11 Jul12F Jul13F I N C O M E S T A T E M E N T ( € M )

Revenue 1507.8 1337.1 1257.5 1244.9 1257.4 EBITDA 83.3 72.4 71.2 74.4 75.0 Depreciation 7.6 6.5 5.3 5.3 5.3 Amortisation of intangibles 3.3 3.9 4.3 6.3 6.3 Operating profit 72.4 61.9 61.7 62.9 63.5 Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 3.7 11.6 14.9 12.9 14.9 PBIT before exceptionals 76.1 73.5 76.5 75.7 78.4 Group net interest -17.4 -15.2 -10.5 -7.8 -6.5 Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total finance costs -17.4 -15.2 -10.5 -7.8 -6.5 Exceptionals -103.6 0.0 -11.4 0.0 0.0 PBT -44.8 58.3 54.6 68.0 71.9 Tax -11.9 -10.3 -13.0 -11.5 -11.9 Minorities (incl. pref. divs.) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Earnings (basic) -56.8 48.0 45.8 56.4 60.0 Average no. of shares (m) - basic 133.1 133.0 133.0 133.0 133.0 Average no. of shares (m) - diluted 137.4 137.3 138.4 138.3 138.8 P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )

EPS Basic -42.7 36.1 34.4 42.4 45.1 EPS Diluted (Adj) 36.2 37.3 40.2 44.4 46.8 Cash EPS (Diluted) 41.7 42.0 44.0 48.2 50.6 Dividend 8.0 9.0 9.4 9.9 10.3 NBV 108.2 136.7 163.8 196.5 215.8 NBV (incl. amortisation of intangibles) 114.1 145.5 175.7 213.1 237.2 C A S H F L O W ( € M )

EBITDA 83.3 72.4 71.2 74.4 75.0 Change in working capital 2.3 9.9 -2.3 -1.3 -0.9 Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other operating cashflows 5.3 -2.8 -6.0 -5.5 -8.0 Cash generated from operations 90.9 79.4 63.0 67.5 66.1 Net capital expenditure -7.7 -5.0 -8.2 -7.0 -7.0 Operating cashflow 83.2 74.4 54.8 60.5 59.1 Net interest -17.9 -13.5 -13.0 -7.5 -6.5 Tax -13.5 -7.9 -12.2 -11.5 -11.9 Dividends from associates 0.0 5.8 7.0 7.5 7.5 Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Free cash flow 51.8 58.9 36.5 49.0 48.3 Dividends to shareholders 0.0 -10.7 -12.0 -15.4 -16.1 Acquisitions & investments -32.9 -0.1 -4.6 -5.0 0.0 Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share Issues / (Buybacks) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Translation differences -1.6 -1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other 4.2 -5.1 -0.1 0.0 -2.8 Change in net cash / debt 21.4 41.9 19.8 28.7 29.4 B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )

Property, plant & equipment 86.8 129.2 94.3 96.0 97.7 Intangible assets 116.0 114.6 130.5 124.3 118.0 Investments in associates / jv's 142.8 105.7 135.1 135.1 135.1 Working capital 6.7 4.0 -35.0 -33.6 -32.7 Other 0.0 0.0 35.3 35.3 35.3 Capital Employed 352.3 353.5 360.2 357.0 353.4 Financed by Equity capital & reserves 144.0 181.8 217.8 261.3 287.1 Minority interests 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net Debt/(Cash) 153.8 111.9 92.1 63.5 34.1 Deferred consideration/debt-related 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Retirement benefit obligations 0.0 20.6 8.5 8.5 8.5 Net deferred tax 14.1 13.4 16.4 16.4 16.4 Other long-term liabilities 40.5 25.8 25.3 7.3 7.3 Capital Employed 352.3 353.5 360.2 357.0 353.4 Intangibles amortised 7.7 11.7 16.0 22.2 28.5 Capital employed inc. intangibles 360.1 365.2 376.2 379.2 381.9 Invested capital inc. intangibles 305.5 305.4 325.9 347.0 349.6

DIVISIONAL ANALYSIS Jul11 Jul12F Jul13F Jul11 Jul12F Jul13F Revenue (€m) Op. Profit (pre am.) (€m)

Food 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Agri-Nutrition 1257.5 1244.9 1257.4 66.0 65.1 65.8 Total 1257.5 1244.9 1257.4 66.0 65.1 65.8


VALUATION Jul11 Jul12F Jul13F Dec11 Dec12F Dec13F Rel to Sector


PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 Yr Absolute 1.6 5.8 11.9 0.3 26.6 20.6 Rel to ISEQ 1.2 6.0 8.9 0.9 16.2 -1.7 Rel to E300 2.3 3.8 0.5 -0.4 17.0 7.7 Rel to E300 Food Producers 2.9 6.9 4.5 -7.6 15.6 4.4


2012 400 306 9.7 7.8 9.0 2011 400 295 305 10.7 7.9 9.4 2010 340 210 320 9.1 5.8 7.1 2009 290 131 213 8.5 3.8 6.2 2008 539 136 140 22.5 4.0 15.4 2007 404 310 380 16.6 12.7 15.5

KEY RATIOS Jul09 Jul10 Jul11 Jul12F Jul13F G R O W T H

EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 6.2 3.1 7.7 10.6 5.4 Dividend (%) N/A 12.5 5.0 5.0 4.0 Revenue (%) 0.2 -11.3 -6.0 -1.0 1.0 EBITDA (%) 4.2 -13.1 -1.6 4.4 0.9 P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y



EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 4.8 4.8 6.8 9.6 11.5 Group Interest Cover (x) N/A 4.8 7.3 9.8 12.1 Debt / EBITDA (x) 1.8 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.5 Debt / Equity (%) N/A 61.5 42.3 24.3 11.9 Debt / Free Cash Flow (x) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Avg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) 10.6 11.5 10.3 10.0 13.3 Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) N/A 6.0 1.7 1.7 1.6 Dividend Cover (x) 4.5 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.5 Working Capital / Revenue (%) 0.4 0.3 N/A N/A N/A Net Capex / Depreciation (%) 102.0 76.5 155.8 132.7 132.7 Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) N/A 17.6 23.8 17.0 16.5

CAGR(%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS % Revenue (%) 9.0 N/A ARYZTA AG 68.8 EBITDA (%) 11.1 N/A W&R Barnett 3.7 EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 11.1 N/A Capital Group 2.3 Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 8.5 N/A Origin LTIP Trustee 0.0 Dividend (%) N/A N/A TSR 1.6 1.1


31 Davy Research

Pernod Ricard

Analyst: Barry Gallagher Email: [email protected] Bloomberg: RI FP Phone: +353 1 6149194 RIC: PERP.PA Sector: Beverage www.pernod-ricard.com


SUMMARY ACCOUNTS Jun10 Jun11 Jun12P Jun13F Jun14F I N C O M E S T A T E M E N T ( € M )

Revenue 7080.9 7643.0 8215.0 9131.3 9924.7 EBITDA 1951.7 2084.0 2464.0 2752.7 3031.6 Depreciation 127.0 141.0 318.0 318.0 318.0 Amortisation of intangibles 30.0 33.0 33.0 33.0 33.0 Operating profit 1794.7 1910.0 2113.0 2401.7 2680.6 Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 PBIT before exceptionals 1794.7 1910.0 2113.0 2401.7 2680.6 Group net interest -507.0 -469.0 -509.0 -499.0 -419.0 Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total finance costs -507.0 -469.0 -509.0 -499.0 -419.0 Exceptionals -88.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 PBT 1199.7 1441.0 1604.0 1902.7 2261.6 Tax -223.0 -317.0 -376.9 -456.6 -542.8 Minorities (incl. pref. divs.) -26.0 -31.0 -27.0 -35.0 -35.0 Earnings (basic) 950.7 1093.0 1200.1 1411.0 1683.8 Average no. of shares (m) - basic 258.0 258.7 258.8 258.8 258.8 Average no. of shares (m) - diluted 263.9 265.1 265.1 265.1 265.1 P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )


EBITDA 1951.7 2084.0 2464.0 2752.7 3031.6 Change in working capital -48.0 15.0 -55.0 -200.0 -150.0 Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other operating cashflows -127.1 -189.0 -296.0 -151.0 -201.0 Cash generated from operations 1776.6 1910.0 2113.0 2401.7 2680.6 Net capital expenditure -184.0 -183.0 -251.0 -228.3 -248.1 Operating cashflow 1592.6 1727.0 1862.0 2173.4 2432.5 Net interest -493.0 -469.0 -509.0 -499.0 -419.0 Tax -79.0 -255.0 -294.0 -433.8 -515.7 Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Free cash flow 1020.6 1003.0 1059.0 1240.6 1497.9 Dividends to shareholders -136.0 -389.0 -395.0 -465.6 -555.7 Acquisitions & investments 21.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share Issues / (Buybacks) -27.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Translation differences -755.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other 116.0 931.0 -989.8 151.0 201.0 Change in net cash / debt 239.0 1545.0 -325.8 925.9 1143.2 B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )


GEOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS Jun12P Jun13F Jun14F Jun12P Jun13F Jun14F Revenue (€m) Operating Profits (€m)

Asia/ROW 3165.0 3782.2 4349.5 880.0 1082.2 1226.6 Americas 2167.0 2465.0 2662.2 582.0 675.4 766.7 Europe 2137.0 2190.4 2212.3 470.0 479.7 519.9 France 746.0 693.8 700.7 181.0 164.4 167.5 Total 8215.0 9131.3 9924.7 2113.0 2401.7 2680.6


VALUATION Jun12P Jun13F Jun14F Dec11P Dec12F Dec13F Rel to Sector


PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 Yr Absolute -2.2 -2.1 8.4 10.9 19.6 37.1 Rel to CAC 40 -1.6 -5.6 -4.1 12.3 10.7 30.8 Rel to E300 -1.5 -3.9 -2.6 10.2 10.6 22.4 Rel to E300 Beverages -3.5 -3.1 -6.3 -8.2 -8.0 -8.0


2012 8879 7153 21.5 17.3 19.3 2011 7191 5682 7166 19.0 14.3 17.1 2010 7207 5533 7036 19.1 14.4 16.3 2009 6043 3665 5991 15.8 9.9 12.8 2008 7341 3699 4898 20.2 10.2 15.1 2007 7615 6461 7310 25.7 18.9 23.1

KEY RATIOS Jun10 Jun11 Jun12P Jun13F Jun14F G R O W T H

EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) -1.1 8.7 9.8 17.6 19.3 Dividend (%) 159.0 10.6 5.6 13.2 16.3 Revenue (%) -1.7 7.9 7.5 11.2 8.7 EBITDA (%) -3.1 6.8 18.2 11.7 10.1 P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y



EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 3.8 4.4 4.8 5.5 7.2 Group Interest Cover (x) 3.5 4.1 4.2 4.8 6.4 Debt / EBITDA (x) 5.4 4.3 3.8 3.1 2.4 Debt / Equity (%) 113.3 95.4 85.3 70.8 55.9 Debt / Free Cash Flow (x) 10.4 9.0 8.8 6.8 4.9 Avg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) 4.7 4.8 5.5 5.6 5.3 Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Dividend Cover (x) 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 Working Capital / Revenue (%) 44.9 39.4 35.8 34.0 33.0 Net Capex / Depreciation (%) 144.9 129.8 78.9 71.8 78.0 Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) 18.6 22.0 23.5 24.0 24.0

CAGR(%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS % Revenue (%) 5.0 N/A Societe Paul Ricard 13.8 EBITDA (%) 8.5 N/A Groupe Bruxelles Lambert 7.5 EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 4.8 N/A Capital Research & Mgmt 5.6 Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 6.6 N/A Franklin Resources 3.7 Dividend (%) 5.4 N/A TSR 5.4 12.9


32 Davy Research

Robertet

Analyst: Aiden O'Donnell/Jack Gorman Email: [email protected]/[email protected] Bloomberg: RBT FP Phone: +353 1 6724211/+353 1 6148926 RIC: ROBF.PA Sector: Ingredients www.robertet.com


SUMMARY ACCOUNTS Dec09 Dec10 Dec11 Dec12F Dec13F I N C O M E S T A T E M E N T ( € M )

Revenue 305.1 362.3 373.3 385.4 397.0 EBITDA 32.1 49.5 50.0 54.3 56.0 Depreciation 8.8 9.4 12.3 12.7 13.1 Amortisation of intangibles 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Operating profit 23.3 40.1 37.7 41.6 42.9 Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 PBIT before exceptionals 23.3 40.1 37.7 41.6 42.9 Group net interest -2.4 -2.0 -2.5 -2.3 -2.2 Other finance costs 2.4 -0.2 0.7 0.0 0.0 Total finance costs 0.0 -2.2 -1.8 -2.3 -2.2 Exceptionals -1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 PBT 22.0 37.9 35.9 39.3 40.7 Tax -8.9 -13.7 -12.3 -13.8 -14.2 Minorities (incl. pref. divs.) -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 0.0 Earnings (basic) 13.0 24.0 23.3 25.5 26.5 Average no. of shares (m) - basic 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 Average no. of shares (m) - diluted 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )


EBITDA 32.1 49.5 50.0 54.3 56.0 Change in working capital 8.4 -7.4 -22.0 6.0 -4.0 Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other operating cashflows 1.2 1.7 -2.0 -1.0 0.1 Cash generated from operations 41.7 43.8 26.0 59.3 52.1 Net capital expenditure -12.1 -19.1 -10.1 -17.3 -17.9 Operating cashflow 29.6 24.7 15.9 42.0 34.2 Net interest -2.0 -1.5 -1.9 -2.3 -2.2 Tax -7.2 -9.2 -13.5 -13.8 -14.2 Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Free cash flow 20.4 14.0 0.5 25.9 17.8 Dividends to shareholders -4.0 -4.4 -6.1 -6.4 -6.6 Acquisitions & investments 0.0 -0.6 -1.6 0.0 0.0 Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share Issues / (Buybacks) 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 Translation differences 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other -1.4 -2.9 -3.3 0.7 0.1 Change in net cash / debt 15.0 7.0 -10.5 20.2 11.3 B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )


DIVISIONAL ANALYSIS Dec11 Dec12F Dec13F Dec11 Dec12F Dec13F Revenue (€m) Operating Profits (€m)

Flavour Additives 143.3 147.6 152.1 16.8 19.3 19.8 Perfumes 137.2 141.3 145.6 11.5 12.7 13.1 Natural Raw Materials 92.8 96.5 99.4 9.4 9.6 9.9 Total 373.3 385.4 397.1 37.7 41.6 42.9




PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 Yr Absolute -0.8 1.5 1.7 -1.2 1.7 7.1 Rel to CAC 40 -0.2 -2.2 -10.1 0.0 -5.9 2.2 Rel to E300 -0.1 -0.4 -8.7 -1.8 -6.0 -4.4 Rel to E300 Food Producers 0.4 2.6 -5.1 -8.9 -7.2 -7.3


2012 12600 11700 12.2 10.3 11.1 2011 13250 10666 12000 14.0 9.5 11.3 2010 11200 7700 10800 16.9 10.6 13.9 2009 8500 6000 8499 15.6 9.4 12.6 2008 10500 6810 7200 16.5 9.0 12.0 2007 14350 10185 10600 22.4 15.9 19.9


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 8.2 66.3 -3.4 9.4 3.9 Dividend (%) 11.1 35.0 0.0 3.7 3.6 Revenue (%) 0.6 18.8 3.0 3.2 3.0 EBITDA (%) 9.5 54.2 1.0 8.6 3.1 P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y




CAGR(%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS % Revenue (%) 11.0 N/A Maubert 50.6 EBITDA (%) 10.2 N/A First Eagle Funds 25.2 EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 10.1 N/A International Value Advisors 10.6 Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 11.6 N/A Dividend (%) 7.3 N/A TSR -0.7 5.1


33 Davy Research

Südzucker

Analyst: Jack Gorman Email: [email protected] Bloomberg: SZU GY Phone: +353 1 6148926 RIC: SZUG.DE Sector: Sweeteners www.suedzucker.de


SUMMARY ACCOUNTS Feb10 Feb11 Feb12P Feb13F Feb14F I N C O M E S T A T E M E N T ( € M )

Revenue 5718.2 6160.8 6991.9 7285.4 7289.7 EBITDA 649.1 763.8 1015.7 1139.4 1112.9 Depreciation 256.7 245.0 264.4 280.0 290.0 Amortisation of intangibles 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Operating profit 392.4 518.8 751.3 859.4 822.9 Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 2.0 4.1 0.9 16.5 22.0 PBIT before exceptionals 394.4 522.9 752.2 875.9 844.9 Group net interest -84.9 -73.4 -76.5 -81.2 -72.0 Other finance costs 38.9 -0.7 -23.0 0.0 0.0 Total finance costs -46.0 -74.1 -99.5 -81.2 -72.0 Exceptionals -5.7 -8.1 7.7 0.0 0.0 PBT 342.7 440.7 660.4 794.7 772.9 Tax -72.0 -96.0 -145.5 -106.5 -177.7 Minorities (incl. pref. divs.) -50.1 -68.1 -112.4 -110.2 -113.5 Earnings (basic) 194.4 250.4 376.2 551.7 455.4 Average no. of shares (m) - basic 189.4 189.4 189.4 189.4 189.4 Average no. of shares (m) - diluted 200.7 204.4 205.8 205.8 205.8 P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )


EBITDA 649.1 763.8 1015.7 1139.4 1112.9 Change in working capital 274.5 -14.5 -305.9 -122.2 -37.7 Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other operating cashflows 41.3 4.0 -96.0 -0.1 0.0 Cash generated from operations 964.9 753.3 613.8 1017.1 1075.2 Net capital expenditure -216.3 -245.4 -276.1 -400.0 -350.0 Operating cashflow 748.6 507.9 337.7 617.1 725.2 Net interest -40.0 -93.0 -41.3 -81.2 -72.0 Tax -99.8 -70.1 -73.8 -106.5 -177.7 Dividends from associates 60.7 7.0 2.3 10.0 10.0 Dividends to minorities -56.9 -58.2 -63.9 -81.2 -85.2 Free cash flow 612.6 293.6 161.0 358.2 400.3 Dividends to shareholders -75.7 -85.2 -104.1 -132.2 -138.8 Acquisitions & investments 0.0 0.0 -10.1 -214.6 0.0 Business disposals 25.3 20.0 32.6 0.0 0.0 Share Issues / (Buybacks) 51.7 0.0 -4.6 0.0 0.0 Translation differences 10.5 0.0 -4.4 0.0 0.0 Other -57.1 -16.7 -7.6 0.1 0.1 Change in net cash / debt 567.3 211.7 62.8 11.5 261.6 B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )

Property, plant & equipment 2551.5 2554.9 2554.1 2709.1 2769.1 Intangible assets 1189.1 1188.1 1191.6 1191.6 1191.6 Investments in associates / jv's 19.0 11.1 12.3 191.9 191.9 Working capital 1520.4 1609.3 1954.1 2076.4 2114.0 Other 66.3 85.1 58.9 58.9 58.9 Capital Employed 5346.3 5448.5 5771.0 6227.9 6325.5 Financed by Equity capital & reserves 2954.4 3148.9 3300.1 3719.9 4036.7 Minority interests 545.8 594.7 669.1 779.3 892.7 Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net Debt/(Cash) 1065.2 853.5 790.7 779.2 517.6 Deferred consideration/debt-related 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Retirement benefit obligations 409.2 397.8 546.1 546.1 546.1 Net deferred tax 27.1 51.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 Other long-term liabilities 344.6 401.8 455.2 393.6 322.6 Capital Employed 5346.3 5448.5 5771.0 6227.9 6325.5 Intangibles amortised 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Capital employed inc. intangibles 5346.3 5448.5 5771.0 6227.9 6325.5 Invested capital inc. intangibles 4565.4 4597.1 4759.9 5278.4 5447.0 *Pre-exceptionals

DIVISIONAL ANALYSIS Feb12P Feb13F Feb14F Feb12P Feb13F Feb14F Revenue (€m) Operating Profits (€m)*

Sugar 3728.2 3862.0 3750.0 510.9 605.8 550.0 Special Products 1805.8 1826.8 1885.0 149.2 153.8 163.6 Crop Energies 528.9 560.7 566.1 53.0 54.8 58.5 Fruit 929.0 1035.9 1088.6 38.2 46.0 50.8 Total 6991.9 7285.4 7289.7 751.3 860.4 822.9


VALUATION Feb12P Feb13F Feb14F Dec11P Dec12F Dec13F Rel to Sector


PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 Yr Absolute 1.3 -5.0 8.4 22.0 8.2 9.4 Rel to DAX 1.3 -7.7 -2.6 20.6 -8.5 -9.2 Rel to E300 2.0 -6.7 -2.6 21.3 0.0 -2.3 Rel to E300 Food Producers 2.5 -4.0 1.2 12.5 -1.3 -5.4


2012 2867 2167 19.2 12.8 16.2 2011 2611 1861 2465 21.1 14.9 18.4 2010 2039 1394 1993 20.8 13.6 16.8 2009 1588 1087 1454 28.3 13.2 19.8 2008 1619 730 1087 20.8 12.5 17.5 2007 1878 1341 1619 N/A N/A N/A

KEY RATIOS Feb10 Feb11 Feb12P Feb13F Feb14F G R O W T H

EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 20.5 24.9 44.0 47.0 -18.0 Dividend (%) 12.5 22.2 27.3 4.3 5.5 Revenue (%) -2.6 7.7 13.5 4.2 0.1 EBITDA (%) 9.1 17.7 33.0 12.2 -2.3 P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y




CAGR(%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS % Revenue (%) 3.9 N/A SZVG 55.0 EBITDA (%) 4.9 N/A Zucker Invest GmbH 10.0 EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 6.7 N/A Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) -0.2 N/A Dividend (%) 4.9 N/A TSR 16.8 7.5


34 Davy Research

Symrise

Analyst: Jack Gorman/Aiden O'Donnell Email: [email protected]/[email protected] Bloomberg: SY1 GY Phone: +353 1 6148926/+353 1 6724211 RIC: SY1G.DE Sector: Ingredients www.symrise.com



Revenue 1362.0 1571.9 1583.6 1689.1 1752.3 EBITDA 265.4 331.1 315.9 344.4 362.4 Depreciation 38.3 40.3 40.4 40.5 40.7 Amortisation of intangibles 44.2 46.3 41.0 44.7 43.3 Operating profit 182.9 244.4 234.4 259.2 278.4 Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 PBIT before exceptionals 182.9 244.4 234.4 259.2 278.4 Group net interest -46.3 -66.9 -38.5 -36.7 -33.5 Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total finance costs -46.3 -66.9 -38.5 -36.7 -33.5 Exceptionals -19.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 PBT 116.7 177.5 195.9 222.5 244.9 Tax -32.4 -44.0 -49.3 -56.0 -61.2 Minorities (incl. pref. divs.) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Earnings (basic) 84.3 133.5 146.5 166.5 183.7 Average no. of shares (m) - basic 118.2 118.2 118.2 118.2 118.2 Average no. of shares (m) - diluted 118.2 118.2 118.2 118.2 118.2 P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )


EBITDA 265.4 331.1 315.9 344.4 362.4 Change in working capital 32.6 -52.2 -45.6 -33.5 -17.7 Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other operating cashflows -24.1 1.0 -5.2 0.0 0.0 Cash generated from operations 273.9 279.8 265.1 310.9 344.7 Net capital expenditure -54.4 -65.7 -55.8 -76.0 -78.9 Operating cashflow 219.5 214.1 209.3 234.9 265.8 Net interest -23.8 -40.2 -21.7 -31.7 -28.5 Tax -48.2 -44.8 -64.2 -56.0 -61.2 Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Free cash flow 147.5 129.2 123.5 147.2 176.1 Dividends to shareholders -59.1 -59.1 -70.9 -75.7 -80.0 Acquisitions & investments -21.2 -2.8 -3.0 -13.1 0.0 Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share Issues / (Buybacks) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Translation differences 1.4 8.6 -4.0 0.0 0.0 Other -1.0 -23.2 -5.8 -0.1 0.1 Change in net cash / debt 67.6 52.7 39.7 58.3 96.2 B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )

Property, plant & equipment 386.0 418.7 431.5 467.0 505.1 Intangible assets 837.7 863.4 834.3 802.7 759.4 Investments in associates / jv's 7.9 8.6 18.9 18.0 18.0 Working capital 358.4 409.3 439.4 472.9 490.7 Other -26.3 -54.1 -28.4 -28.5 -30.0 Capital Employed 1563.6 1645.9 1695.5 1732.1 1743.2 Financed by Equity capital & reserves 689.0 842.1 913.7 1004.5 1108.2 Minority interests 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net Debt/(Cash) 574.0 521.3 481.6 423.3 327.1 Deferred consideration/debt-related 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Retirement benefit obligations 199.4 212.4 221.6 221.6 221.6 Net deferred tax 59.0 44.4 53.2 53.2 53.2 Other long-term liabilities 42.2 25.7 25.4 29.5 33.1 Capital Employed 1563.6 1645.9 1695.5 1732.1 1743.2 Intangibles amortised 167.0 213.3 254.3 299.0 342.3 Capital employed inc. intangibles 1730.6 1859.2 1949.9 2031.1 2085.5 Invested capital inc. intangibles 1429.9 1576.7 1649.7 1726.8 1777.6

DIVISIONAL ANALYSIS Dec11P Dec12F Dec13F Dec11P Dec12F Dec13F Revenue (€m) EBITDA (€m)

Scent & Care 801.4 860.6 891.2 157.6 167.8 182.5 Flavour & Nutrition 782.3 828.6 861.1 158.4 176.5 179.9 Total 1583.7 1689.2 1752.3 316.0 344.3 362.4

QUARTERLY DATA Dec11 Dec12 Dec13F CALENDAR Date Ex-Div EBITDA Q1 85.2 87.0 91.6 Interims 09-08-12 EBITDA Q2 77.3 83.6 87.7 Finals 14-03-12 EBITDA Q3 80.1 84.8 87.7 AGM 15-05-12 EBITDA Q4 73.4 82.3 83.1 Updated 10-08-12



PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 Yr Absolute 2.0 5.3 18.5 22.7 30.5 42.3 Rel to DAX 2.0 2.3 6.5 21.2 10.5 18.1 Rel to E300 2.7 3.4 6.5 21.9 20.7 27.1 Rel to E300 Food Producers 3.2 6.4 10.6 13.1 19.2 23.1


2012 2692 2057 21.6 13.5 16.6 2011 2274 1643 2062 20.1 14.7 17.9 2010 2238 1498 2053 27.1 16.0 20.9 2009 1573 707 1498 24.6 8.5 16.4 2008 1928 775 998 20.9 9.3 15.3 2007 2220 1790 1928 N/A N/A N/A


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 14.7 21.2 4.3 12.6 7.5 Dividend (%) 0.0 20.0 3.3 6.5 6.1 Revenue (%) 3.2 15.4 0.7 6.7 3.7 EBITDA (%) 1.3 24.7 -4.6 9.0 5.2 P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y




CAGR(%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS % Revenue (%) 5.2 N/A M&G Investment Management 15.0 EBITDA (%) 5.7 N/A Gerberding Vermogensverwaltung 5.9 EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 34.2 N/A MFS Investment Mgmt 5.0 Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 19.2 N/A Mondrian Investment Partners 3.2 Dividend (%) N/A N/A Standard Life Investment 3.1 TSR N/A N/A


35 Davy Research

Tate & Lyle

Analyst: Jack Gorman Email: [email protected] Bloomberg: TATE LN Phone: +353 1 6148926 RIC: TATE.L Sector: Sweeteners www.tateandlyle.com


SUMMARY ACCOUNTS Mar10 Mar11 Mar12 Mar13F Mar14F I N C O M E S T A T E M E N T ( £ M )

Revenue 2533.0 2720.0 3088.0 3230.0 3282.0 EBITDA 364.0 417.0 439.0 467.0 483.0 Depreciation 100.0 91.0 85.0 100.0 102.0 Amortisation of intangibles 20.0 18.0 18.0 18.0 18.0 Operating profit 244.0 308.0 336.0 349.0 363.0 Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 PBIT before exceptionals 244.0 308.0 336.0 349.0 363.0 Group net interest -51.0 -50.0 -33.0 -30.0 -25.0 Other finance costs -21.0 -8.0 8.0 0.0 0.0 Total finance costs -72.0 -58.0 -25.0 -30.0 -25.0 Exceptionals -288.0 -5.0 68.0 -10.0 0.0 PBT -116.0 245.0 379.0 309.0 338.0 Tax 95.0 -49.0 -72.0 -61.0 -64.6 Minorities (incl. pref. divs.) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Earnings (basic) 15.0 163.0 307.0 248.0 273.4 Average no. of shares (m) - basic 457.0 461.5 465.7 470.0 470.0 Average no. of shares (m) - diluted 459.3 468.8 474.9 478.0 478.0 P E R S H A R E D A T A ( P )


EBITDA 364.0 417.0 439.0 467.0 483.0 Change in working capital 291.0 -101.0 -121.0 -68.0 -23.0 Share-based payments 5.0 9.0 11.0 10.0 10.0 Other operating cashflows 56.0 -100.0 -71.0 -42.0 -12.0 Cash generated from operations 716.0 225.0 258.0 367.0 458.0 Net capital expenditure -79.0 -21.0 -102.0 -135.0 -112.0 Operating cashflow 637.0 204.0 156.0 232.0 346.0 Net interest -59.0 -46.0 -40.0 -30.0 -25.0 Tax -38.0 -31.0 16.0 -45.0 -49.0 Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Dividends to minorities -2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Free cash flow 538.0 127.0 132.0 157.0 272.0 Dividends to shareholders -103.0 -70.0 -112.0 -117.0 -121.0 Acquisitions & investments -21.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Business disposals -26.0 280.0 1.0 20.0 0.0 Share Issues / (Buybacks) -4.0 2.0 -16.0 0.0 0.0 Translation differences 79.0 27.0 -7.0 0.0 0.0 Other -46.0 -16.0 -10.0 0.0 0.0 Change in net cash / debt 417.0 350.0 -12.0 60.0 151.0 B A L A N C E S H E E T ( £ M )

Property, plant & equipment 1208.0 855.0 922.0 937.0 927.0 Intangible assets 340.0 320.0 325.0 307.0 289.0 Investments in associates / jv's 7.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 Working capital 329.0 338.0 352.0 420.0 443.0 Other 32.0 86.0 86.0 77.0 66.0 Capital Employed 1916.0 1604.0 1690.0 1746.0 1730.0 Financed by Equity capital & reserves 827.0 950.0 1033.0 1154.0 1296.0 Minority interests 27.0 23.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net Debt/(Cash) 814.0 464.0 476.0 416.0 265.0 Deferred consideration/debt-related 28.0 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Retirement benefit obligations 257.0 139.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 Net deferred tax -84.0 -44.0 -12.0 -12.0 -12.0 Other long-term liabilities 47.0 65.0 28.0 23.0 16.0 Capital Employed 1916.0 1604.0 1690.0 1746.0 1730.0 Intangibles amortised 81.0 99.0 117.0 135.0 153.0 Capital employed inc. intangibles 1997.0 1703.0 1807.0 1881.0 1883.0 Invested capital inc. intangibles 1777.0 1543.0 1651.0 1730.0 1739.0

DIVISIONAL ANALYSIS Mar12 Mar13F Mar14F Mar12 Mar13F Mar14F Revenue (£m) Op. Profit (pre am.) (£m)

Speciality Food Ingredients 887.0 945.0 978.0 214.0 225.0 235.0 Bulk Ingredients 2201.0 2285.0 2304.0 172.0 174.0 180.0 Central 0.0 0.0 0.0 -38.0 -37.0 -39.0 Total 3088.0 3230.0 3282.0 348.0 362.0 376.0

HALF YEARLY DATA Mar09 Sep09 Mar10 CALENDAR Date Ex-Div Sales (£m) 1855.0 1823.0 1683.0 Interims 08-11-12 30-11-11 Pretax Profit (£m) -8.0 50.0 -111.0 Finals 31-05-12 27-06-12 EPS adjusted (p) 18.8 18.3 20.6 AGM 26-07-12 DPS (p) 16.1 6.8 16.1 Updated 27-07-12

VALUATION Mar12 Mar13F Mar14F Dec11 Dec12F Dec13F Rel to Sector


PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 Yr Absolute 1.1 -0.6 -2.4 -7.0 -6.9 13.1 Rel to FTSE 100 2.2 -1.9 -9.1 -3.5 -9.2 6.8 Rel to E300 1.6 -3.4 -11.2 -1.4 -9.2 12.8 Rel to E300 Food Producers 2.2 -0.5 -7.7 -8.5 -10.4 9.3


2012 721 634 18.7 11.2 15.5 2011 705 520 705 18.2 13.4 15.6 2010 545 389 518 14.0 10.2 12.0 2009 478 230 433 12.6 6.2 9.3 2008 583 329 401 12.0 8.0 10.2 2007 775 403 445 16.4 8.3 11.5

KEY RATIOS Mar10 Mar11 Mar12 Mar13F Mar14F G R O W T H

EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 7.1 -5.2 46.2 0.5 5.7 Dividend (%) 0.0 3.5 5.1 4.4 1.9 Revenue (%) -28.7 7.4 13.5 4.6 1.6 EBITDA (%) -5.9 14.6 5.3 6.4 3.4 P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y



EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 7.1 8.3 13.3 15.6 19.3 Group Interest Cover (x) N/A 6.2 10.2 11.6 14.5 Debt / EBITDA (x) 2.3 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.5 Debt / Equity (%) 98.6 48.4 45.0 35.3 20.1 Debt / Free Cash Flow (x) 1.6 3.7 3.6 2.6 1.0 Avg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) 5.0 7.8 7.0 6.7 7.3 Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 12.4 5.2 4.2 4.6 4.6 Dividend Cover (x) 1.8 1.6 2.3 2.2 2.3 Working Capital / Revenue (%) 13.0 12.4 11.4 13.0 13.5 Net Capex / Depreciation (%) 79.0 23.1 120.0 135.0 109.8 Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) N/A 20.0 19.0 19.7 19.1

CAGR(%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS % Revenue (%) -0.9 N/A Invesco 9.7 EBITDA (%) 3.1 N/A Blackrock 5.4 EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 8.5 N/A Schroders Investment Mgmt 5.2 Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 6.7 N/A Artemis 5.0 Dividend (%) 3.0 N/A AXA SA 4.9 TSR 7.9 9.4


36 Davy Research

Total Produce

Analyst: John O'Reilly Xetra: T70 Email: john.o'[email protected] Bloomberg: TOT ID Phone: +353 1 6148915 RIC: T7O.I Sector: Food & Beverage www.totalproduce.com



Revenue 2431.4 2600.5 2526.6 2678.6 2705.4 EBITDA 53.6 56.5 51.9 57.3 59.2 Depreciation 13.2 13.1 13.2 13.8 14.0 Amortisation of intangibles 5.7 5.7 5.8 5.8 5.8 Operating profit 34.7 37.6 33.0 37.7 39.5 Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 1.6 1.7 3.4 3.4 3.4 PBIT before exceptionals 36.3 39.4 36.4 41.1 42.9 Group net interest -3.2 -3.4 -4.7 -4.7 -4.4 Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total finance costs -3.2 -3.4 -4.7 -4.7 -4.4 Exceptionals -4.8 -2.4 2.7 0.0 0.0 PBT 28.4 33.6 34.4 36.4 38.5 Tax -9.2 -8.4 -7.3 -10.2 -10.8 Minorities (incl. pref. divs.) -6.2 -6.9 -4.3 -6.9 -7.2 Earnings (basic) 13.0 18.3 22.8 19.3 20.5 Average no. of shares (m) - basic 351.9 351.9 329.9 329.9 329.9 Average no. of shares (m) - diluted 351.9 349.5 329.9 329.9 329.9 P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )


EBITDA 53.6 56.5 51.9 57.3 59.2 Change in working capital 0.9 7.0 -7.7 -4.6 -2.9 Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other operating cashflows -5.2 -3.8 -5.2 -3.0 -3.0 Cash generated from operations 49.3 59.6 39.0 49.7 53.4 Net capital expenditure -8.4 -10.7 -14.8 -14.0 -14.0 Operating cashflow 40.9 48.9 24.2 35.7 39.4 Net interest -2.9 -3.4 -5.2 -4.7 -4.4 Tax -7.6 -9.8 -11.3 -10.2 -10.8 Dividends from associates 1.8 1.9 1.8 2.0 2.0 Dividends to minorities -5.0 -5.0 -4.9 -5.0 -5.0 Free cash flow 27.2 32.6 4.5 17.8 21.2 Dividends to shareholders -5.9 -5.9 -5.9 -6.5 -6.8 Acquisitions & investments -7.9 -7.2 -25.0 1.5 0.0 Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share Issues / (Buybacks) 0.0 -8.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 Translation differences 0.0 -4.0 -0.6 0.0 0.0 Other -3.7 -4.1 -0.7 -0.0 0.0 Change in net cash / debt 9.6 2.6 -27.6 12.8 14.3 B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )

Property, plant & equipment 137.1 145.3 146.5 146.7 146.7 Intangible assets 127.2 140.6 152.5 146.5 140.7 Investments in associates / jv's 33.0 34.1 40.2 40.2 40.2 Working capital 13.3 -0.6 11.5 16.1 18.9 Other 18.0 15.3 18.1 7.1 7.1 Capital Employed 328.6 334.7 368.9 356.5 353.6 Financed by Equity capital & reserves 165.2 168.6 176.7 183.0 189.8 Minority interests 55.8 58.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net Debt/(Cash) 50.6 47.9 75.6 62.8 48.4 Deferred consideration/debt-related 15.7 19.8 12.4 11.4 11.4 Retirement benefit obligations 10.5 12.3 18.1 18.1 18.1 Net deferred tax 13.1 17.6 10.2 10.2 10.2 Other long-term liabilities 17.9 10.5 15.9 11.0 15.6 Capital Employed 328.6 334.7 368.9 356.5 353.6 Intangibles amortised 22.0 27.7 33.5 39.3 45.1 Capital employed inc. intangibles 350.6 362.4 402.4 395.8 398.7 Invested capital inc. intangibles 309.2 322.1 358.2 356.5 354.8




PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 Yr Absolute -4.4 3.8 -9.3 -2.4 10.8 5.1 Rel to ISEQ -4.8 4.1 -11.7 -1.8 1.7 -14.3 Rel to E300 -3.8 1.9 -18.5 -3.0 2.5 -6.1 Rel to E300 Food Producers -3.2 4.9 -15.3 -10.0 1.2 -9.0


2012 50 38 6.8 5.3 5.9 2011 46 35 37 6.8 5.2 6.0 2010 40 32 38 6.2 4.9 5.7 2009 40 18 34 5.9 2.8 4.7 2008 66 21 26 11.6 3.2 8.4 2007 88 58 59 14.7 10.2 12.7


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) -4.1 5.6 5.9 5.1 4.7 Dividend (%) 0.0 0.0 11.8 4.8 4.5 Revenue (%) -3.4 7.0 -2.8 6.0 1.0 EBITDA (%) -4.9 5.4 -8.1 10.3 3.4 P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y



EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 16.9 16.4 10.9 12.2 13.5 Group Interest Cover (x) 11.5 11.4 7.7 8.7 9.8 Debt / EBITDA (x) 1.2 1.2 1.7 1.3 1.0 Debt / Equity (%) 30.0 29.9 37.2 30.5 24.0 Debt / Free Cash Flow (x) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Avg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) 5.7 7.0 7.7 6.8 7.9 Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 8.7 9.3 14.9 13.4 13.4 Dividend Cover (x) 3.8 4.0 3.8 3.8 3.9 Working Capital / Revenue (%) 0.5 N/A 0.5 0.6 0.7 Net Capex / Depreciation (%) 63.6 81.7 112.6 101.3 100.3 Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) 32.3 24.9 21.2 28.0 28.0

CAGR(%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS % Revenue (%) 6.3 N/A Balken Investment Co 11.3 EBITDA (%) 1.7 N/A Arnsberg Investment Co 6.4 EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 4.9 N/A Sparinvest Fondsmæglerselskab 5.4 Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 3.7 N/A Farringdon Capital Management 4.9 Dividend (%) N/A N/A State Street Global Advisors Ireland 4.0

37 Davy Research

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38 Davy Research

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