SECOND EDITION - dusk.geo.orst.edu

Edited by

Dawn J. WrightForeword by David G. Gallo

Afterword by Jerry R. Schubel

OCEANS O L U T I O N S

EARTHS O L U T I O N SS E C O N D E D I T I O N

OCEANS O L U T I O N S

EARTHS O L U T I O N S

Edited by

Dawn J. WrightForeword by David G. Gallo

Afterword by Jerry R. Schubel

Esri Press, 380 New York Street, Redlands, California 92373-8100 Copyright © 2016 Esri All rights reserved. 1st edition 2015; 2nd edition 2016.

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Names: Wright, Dawn J., 1961- editor. Title: Ocean solutions, earth solutions / Dawn J. Wright, [editor]. Description: Second edition. | Redlands, California : Esri Press, [2016] | Includes bibliographical references and index. Identifiers: LCCN 2015047683 | ISBN 9781589484603 (alk. paper) Subjects: LCSH: Marine ecology. | Endangered ecosystems. | Marine resources conservation. e-ISBN 9781589484658

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Dedication

To Peter Kouwenhoven, lead author of chapter 5, who on July 24, 2015, passed away suddenly in his sleep while away in Japan on business. We continue to extend our deepest sympathies to Peter’s family and to his colleagues at CLIMsystems in Hamilton, New Zealand. Peter will be sorely missed by GIS and climate change colleagues around the world.

ContentsForeword xiAcknowledgments xiiiIntroduction xv

Chapter 1Cloudy with a Chance of Fish: ArcGIS for Server and Cloud-Based Fisheries Oceanography Applications 1Tiffany C. Vance, Stephen Sontag, and Kyle Wilcox

Chapter 2What GIS Experts and Policy Professionals Need to Know about Using Marxan in Multiobjective Planning Processes 25Heather M. Coleman and Jeff A. Ardron

Chapter 3Artificial Reefs, Beach Restoration, and Sea Turtle Nesting in Martin County, Florida 47Alexandra Carvalho, Kathy Fitzpatrick, Jessica Garland, and Frank Veldhuis

Chapter 4Tools for Implementing the Coastal and Marine Ecological Classification Standard 71Lori Scott, Kathleen L. Goodin, and Mark K. Finkbeiner

Chapter 5How Does Climate Change Affect Our Oceans? 87Peter Kouwenhoven, Yinpeng Li, and Peter Urich

Chapter 6A GIS Tool to Compute a Pollutant Exposure Index for the Southern California Bight 103Rebecca A. Schaffner, Steven J. Steinberg, and Kenneth C. Schiff

Dawn J. Wright, ed.; 2016; Ocean Solutions, Earth Solutions, second edition; http://dx.doi.org/10.17128/9781589484603_toc

viii OCEAN SOLUTIONS | EARTH SOLUTIONS

Chapter 7Development of a Map Viewer for Archipelago de Cabrera National Park, Balearic Islands, Spain 127Beatriz Ramos López, Nuria Hermida Jiménez, and Olvido Tello Antón

Chapter 8Whale mAPP: Engaging Citizen Scientists to Contribute and Map Marine Mammal Sightings 143Lei Lani Stelle, Melodi King, and Courtney Helen Hann

Chapter 9Extending Esri Geoportal Server to Meet the Needs of the West Coast Ocean Data Network and Inform Regional Ocean Management 167Todd Hallenbeck, Steven J. Steinberg, Andy Lanier, and Tim Welch

Chapter 10Linking Landscape Condition Impacts to Coral Reef Ecosystem Composition for the East End of Saint Croix 185Daniel S. Dorfman, Simon J. Pittman, Sarah D. Hile, Christopher F. G. Jeffrey, Alicia Clarke, and Chris Caldow

Chapter 11Using GIS Tools to Develop a Collaborative Essential Fish Habitat Proposal 201Sophie de Beukelaer, Karen F. Grimmer, Jennifer A. Brown, and Chad King

Chapter 12More Than Maps: Connecting Aquarium Guests to Global Stories 221Jennifer Lentz, Emily Yam, Alie LeBeau, and David Bader

Chapter 13Uncovering the Oceans through Marinescape Geovisualization 243Rosaline Canessa, Robert Newell, and Cathryn R. Brandon

Chapter 14Approaches to Visualizing Complex Ocean Data Using Worldwide Telescope 265Rob Fatland

Contents ix

Chapter 15Managing the Visual Landscape of Oregon’s Territorial Sea 281Paul Manson and Andy Lanier

Chapter 16Near Real-Time Oceanic Glider Mission Viewers 307Shinichi Kobara, Christina Simoniello, Ruth Mullins-Perry, Ann Elizabeth Jochens, Matthew K. Howard, Stephanie M. Watson, Robert Currier, Barbara Kirkpatrick, and Stephan Howden

Chapter 17Multivariate Classification of Seamount Morphology: Assessing Seamount Morphotypes in Relation to Marine Jurisdictions and Bioregions 329Miles Macmillan-Lawler and Peter T. Harris

Chapter 18Satellite Services for Coastal Applications 357Thomas Heege, Matthew Bergin, Knut Hartmann, and Karin Schenk

Chapter 19The Coastal Defense App: Evaluating Nature’s Role in Coastal Protection 369Laura Flessner, Zach Ferdaña, Greg Guannel, George T. Raber, and James Byrne

Chapter 20Modeling and Mapping Coastal Ecosystem Services to Support Climate Adaptation Planning 389Lisa Wedding, Sarah Reiter, Eric Hartge, Greg Guannel, Hilary Walecka, Molly Melius, Tom Robinson, Sandi Potter, Lisa Posternak, Amy Lyle, Sarah Newkirk, Gregory Verutes, Anne Guerry, Mary Ruckelshaus, Katie Arkema, and Meg Caldwell

Chapter 21The Tetiaroa Atoll Research Project: Documenting Changes in Island Morphology and Biodiversity through GIS-Based Field Research 411Jason Berney, Ian Eland, Tim Krantz, Steven D. Moore, David A. Smith, Nathan Strout, and Lucas Wilgers

x OCEAN SOLUTIONS | EARTH SOLUTIONS

Chapter 22Sediment Drainage Streams Important in Benthic Seafloor Classification 431Chris Jenkins

Chapter 23The Navy Shore Geospatial Energy Module 441Amanda Williams, Sandrine Schultz, and Greg Turner

Afterword 461Contributors 463Index 495

CHAPTER 20New

Modeling and Mapping Coastal Ecosystem Services to Support Climate Adaptation PlanningLisa Wedding, Sarah Reiter, Eric Hartge, Greg Guannel, Hilary Walecka, Molly Melius, Tom Robinson, Sandi Potter, Lisa Posternak, Amy Lyle, Sarah Newkirk, Gregory Verutes, Anne Guerry, Mary Ruckelshaus, Katie Arkema, and Meg Caldwell

AbstractTo support decision-makers in their efforts to manage coastal resources in a changing climate, the Natural Capital Project and the Stanford University Center for Ocean Solutions are engaging in, informing, and helping shape climate adaptation planning at various scales throughout coastal California. Our team has built collaborations with Sonoma County regional planners and local scientific and policy experts to inform these local climate adaptation decisions that might minimize the economic and social losses associated with climate change. More specifically, to support the Sonoma County planning community in their efforts to update their Local Coastal Program, we have conducted a spatially explicit coastal vulnerability assessment using the InVEST tool and ArcGIS software. The goal of this analysis is to evaluate the role of natural habitats in reducing exposure to rising sea levels and more intense storms. This chapter describes our approach and preliminary findings based on mapping ecosystem services to support climate adaptation planning in Sonoma County, California.

IntroductionCoastal Impacts Associated with Climate Change

Climate change impacts (e.g., rising seas, increased storms, extreme tides) can lead to economic, social, and environmental vulnerabilities that threaten the supply of ecosystem services. The densely populated coastal communities of the United States directly benefit from a broad range of ecosystem services provided by the dynamic coastal zone, especially protection from coastal flooding caused by storms and rising seas (Arkema et al. 2013). Maintaining natural capital (e.g., benefits from nature embodied in

Dawn J. Wright, ed.; 2016; Ocean Solutions, Earth Solutions, second edition; http://dx.doi.org/10.17128/9781589484603_20

390 OCEAN SOLUTIONS | EARTH SOLUTIONS

Earth’s lands, waters, and biodiversity) to protect and support vibrant coastal communities is critical in the face of intensifying climate change impacts. These communities are faced with a significant challenge—and opportunity—to proactively manage the consequences of a changing climate.

In California, in which the ocean economy is the largest in the nation at approximately $39 billion annually and a majority of California’s large and growing population lives within the coastal zone (Kildow et al. 2014; Pitkin and Meyers 2012; California Department of Finance 2013), climate change is projected to have far-reaching impacts. Rising sea levels and increased storm events caused by a changing climate, coupled with chronic and long-term coastal erosion problems, reduce the resilience of California’s coastal communities and put their economies and ecological infrastructure (e.g., freshwater aquifers) at significant risk. California’s coastal habitats can reduce the impacts of sea level rise and buffer from storms, providing the ecosystem service of coastal protection. Coastal California represents a great case study site to evaluate the challenges and opportunities in coastal resilience and adaptation planning using natural capital.

Science Context: Ecosystem Services Provided by Coastal HabitatsEcosystem services are the benefits that are naturally provided by habitats to people such as erosion control, water purification, crop pollination, and timber production. Loss of habitat reduces the ability of nature to provide these valuable ecosystem services. A diversity of habitats fringing the US coastline (e.g., coastal forests, marshes, dunes, seagrass beds) attenuate waves and thus reduce storm-related damage to shorelines from erosion and inundation (Barbier et al. 2011; Shepard et al. 2011). California’s coastal habitats (e.g., sea grasses, kelp forests, salt marshes, dunes) are a valuable part of the coastal landscape and may provide significant protection from rising sea levels and increasingly frequent and intense storm events. As coastal development and rising sea levels damage or destroy these habitats, coastlines and the nearby communities and infrastructure become increasingly vulnerable to storms.

An important challenge for decision-makers is to determine the best mitigation and adaptation strategies that not only protect human lives and property but also protect the ability of coastal habitats to provide the ecosystem service of coastal protection into the future. Modeling and mapping of natural capital and the value that ecosystem services provide can support this critical first step to designing and evaluating science-based climate adaptation strategies in coastal California.

Policy Context: Decision ContextAdaptation to climate change is on the rise in scientific and policy agendas (Adger et al. 2007; Moser 2009; Preston et al. 2009; Ekstrom and Moser 2014) and many governments and nongovernment actors at the national, regional, and local levels are developing adaptation plans for response to climate change. Increasing attention to climate change is a step forward, but many barriers to actionable adaptation policies exist. Overcoming these barriers involves incremental policy, planning, and management choices (Ekstrom and Moser 2014). The most often encountered barriers include (1) lack of quality data and planning tools, which inhibit incorporating the ecosystem services in policy contexts; (2) transitioning from broad-scale planning efforts to project-level actions; and (3) modeling complex impacts beyond sea level rise, particularly with respect to increased storm events.

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Climate change, and the threat it poses to California’s coastal communities, is properly addressed through the state’s land-use policy. The California Coastal Act was enacted in 1976 to address land-use and development regulation in the coastal zone. Local governments in the coastal zone must prepare a Local Coastal Program (LCP) that includes a land-use plan, zoning ordinances, and implementation programs for the land-use plans (California Public Resources Code 30500–26; California State Legislature 2014). Local plans can play a key role in enhancing community resilience by guiding how a community prepares for and responds to climate change (Berke and Lyles 2013). Therefore, local plans are the specific policy vehicle through which our team can assist local decision-makers in setting and implementing effective adaptation policies. The California Coastal Commission (CCC) (2013) reviews and approves LCPs as consistent with (and adequate to carry out) Coastal Act policies, after which the local government becomes the lead agency for permitting most coastal development above the mean high tide line, subject to limited CCC appeal authority (California Public Resources Code 30514a–b; California State Legislature 2014).

The 2013 Sea Level Rise Policy Guidance Public Review Draft represents the CCC’s recommendations for how local governments can integrate adaptation into LCP amendments and coastal development permits. The draft acknowledges several needs pertaining to ecosystem services information. It recommends that existing LCP policies to protect natural resources be evaluated to determine the extent to which policies already address current and anticipated changes from sea level rise, and suggests that additional policies may be needed to establish adaptive management plans for natural resources that account for sea level rise. It also recommends that updated LCPs should include (1) maps of potential ecosystem change over time with sea level rise and (2) updated land-use designations and zoning to protect land adjacent to environmentally sensitive habitat areas. Moreover, the draft suggests that the expected loss of habitat that will occur with sea level rise be accounted for by updating policies to provide for new or restored coastal habitat. Finally, it calls for the addition of policies that state that the effects of sea level rise be addressed in management plans for coastal habitats. In our Sonoma County case study, we seek to advance the recommendations provided by the CCC in order to incorporate ecosystem services science into the coastal adaptation decision contexts.

The California Coastal Act defines an environmentally sensitive habitat area (ESHA) as “any area in which plant or animal life or their habitats are either rare or especially valuable because of their special nature or role in an ecosystem and which could be easily disturbed or degraded by human activities and developments” (California Public Resources Code 30107.5; California State Legislature 2014). The Coastal Act stipulates that ESHAs be “protected against any significant disruption of habitat values, and only uses dependent on those resources shall be allowed within those areas” (California Public Resources Code 30240; California State Legislature 2014). In practice, not all ESHAs are mapped (proactively), resulting in uncertainty as to where ESHAs exist within a given jurisdiction. ESHA determinations are typically made on a case-by-case basis. Although some jurisdictions have mapped where they believe ESHAs exist, the CCC reserves the right to make that determination on pending applications.

Mapping and Modeling Ecosystem Services to Support Coastal Planning To proactively adapt to a changing climate and incorporate an ecosystem service approach into climate adaptation planning, it is important to quantify, map, and value the goods and services from nature that contribute to coastal protection and other services that sustain and fulfill human life. The Stanford University Center for Ocean Solutions and the Natural Capital Project are working


with several coastal counties in California to answer three key questions: (1) Where are the impacts (e.g., erosion and inundation) from climate hazards (e.g., rising sea levels, increased temperatures, altered wave climates) likely to be the greatest on coastal systems? (2) What are the consequences of climate adaptation planning on natural capital, habitats, and ecosystem services? (3) Which adaptation solutions are most appropriate and cost-effective considering the social, physical, and legal setting? These questions arise from the need of coastal planners and land-use decision-makers to have scientific approaches and tools to make informed specific decisions in coastal adaptation planning. Shaped by the context of coastal planning decisions in California, our ecosystem service approaches and tools such as InVEST (Integrated Valuation or Environmental Services and Tradeoffs) can lead to substantive change by empowering coastal decision-makers to include the best available scientific information in their decision-making processes.

To map and value the goods and services from natural capital, we are using the InVEST software suite. InVEST is a free and open source suite of software models created by the Natural Capital Project (2015) at Stanford University to map and value the goods and services from natural capital. Our interdisciplinary team of scientists and lawyers from the Center for Ocean Solutions and the Natural Capital Project has partnered with coastal decision-makers in jurisdictions across California to use InVEST to identify where coastal habitats play key roles in coastal protection and to include the multiple benefits of natural infrastructure into coastal adaptation planning documents and zoning ordinances. We are doing the following: (1) updating the planning documents to account for modeled sea level rise scenarios; (2) drafting public safety provisions; and (3) testing model ordinance language in real-world planning contexts.

We are currently engaged with four counties along the Central Coast of California, and we will highlight the current ecosystem service mapping of coastal protection in our Sonoma County case study. The goal of our case study is to evaluate the role of natural habitats in reducing exposure to rising sea levels and more damaging storms, and this chapter reflects the initial application of our findings. In our Sonoma County case study, we seek to advance the recommendations provided by the CCC to incorporate ecosystem services science into the coastal adaptation decision contexts.

Case Study: Sonoma CountyAs a leader in climate mitigation and adaptation planning, Sonoma County has made significant progressive efforts such as the development of a countywide collaborative initiative to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and the creation of a community-focused climate action plan. By working with regions such as Sonoma County and other climate adaptation leaders, we are able to codevelop new solutions that may be transferable to communities that are receptive to, yet potentially less willing or able to, test new solutions.

Sonoma County has received a two-year grant from the California Ocean Protection Council to develop and adopt updated policies in local planning ordinances that conserve and protect coastal resources from future climate change impacts (figure 20.1). This initiative includes working with experts to compile the best available scientific data and an integrated approach to protecting both built and natural infrastructure to support the long-term health and socioeconomic and environmental resiliency of Sonoma County coastal communities.

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Figure 20.1. Sonoma County coastline. Data sources: Esri, DeLorme, GEBCO, NOAA NGDC, and other contributors.

Photos © 2002–14 by Kenneth and Gabrielle Adelman, California Coastal Records Project, www.californiacoastline.org.

Our team has built collaborations with Sonoma County regional planners and local scientific and policy experts to inform these local climate adaptation decisions that might minimize the economic and social losses associated with climate change. More specifically, to support the Sonoma County planning community in its efforts to update the Local Coastal Program, the Center for Ocean Solutions, in partnership with the Natural Capital Project, is conducting a spatially explicit coastal vulnerability assessment using the InVEST tool and ArcGIS. The goal of this analysis is to evaluate the role of natural habitats in reducing exposure to rising sea levels and more intense storms.


Geospatial Approach to Ecosystem Service Assessment Healthy coastal habitats reduce the impacts of storms and shoreline erosion and increase resilience in coastal areas, providing an important ecosystem service. With ever-increasing human pressure on ecosystems, coastal communities require ways to identify locations in which natural habitats provide the greatest benefits so that they can prioritize adaptation planning efforts that protect or restore these critical natural habitats. We used InVEST in combination with ArcGIS to identify areas in which natural coastal habitats provide the most protection from storms and shoreline erosion.

InVEST 3.0.0 is the first version of InVEST with stand-alone versions for a suite of 16 ecosystem service models and analysis tools. InVEST models are spatially explicit, using maps as information sources and producing maps as outputs (figure 20.2). The spatial resolution of analyses can be driven by the scale of available data as well as the scale of the planning question to address questions at the local, regional, or global scales.

Figure 20.2. Screen capture of InVEST version 3.0.1 Coastal Vulnerability Assessment tool. Courtesy of the

Natural Capital Project.

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In collaboration with stakeholders, planners can rerun InVEST analyses; and with an iterative process, planners can create new scenarios based on the information revealed by the models until suitable solutions are identified. The ecosystem service models in InVEST are based on production functions that define how an ecosystem’s structure and function affect the flows and values of ecosystem services. The models account for both service supply (e.g., natural habitats as buffers for storm waves) and the location and activities of people who benefit from services (e.g., coastal inhabitants and infrastructure potentially affected by coastal storms). InVEST includes models for several different ecosystem services, including nutrient retention, carbon storage and sequestration, renewable energy, and coastal vulnerability.

The InVEST Coastal Vulnerability model incorporates a scenario-based approach to evaluate the role that coastal habitats play in reducing exposure to coastal impacts. The results can be informative to the subsequent evaluation of trade-offs between adaptation strategy approaches and help to inform answers to such questions as the following:

• Where will dune restoration provide the largest protection from climate-related increases in the frequency and severity of coastal storms?

• How will sea level rise affect the ability of marsh habitats to maintain water quality?• How will seawalls and coastal armoring affect the number of visitors and revenue from coastal

recreation? The InVEST Coastal Vulnerability model produces a qualitative estimate of coastal impact

exposure to erosion and inundation during storms. The output is an exposure index, which differentiates areas with relatively high or low exposure. Model inputs serve as proxies for various complex shoreline processes that influence exposure to erosion and inundation. By coupling exposure results with population information, the areas along a given coastline where humans are most vulnerable to storm waves and surge can be identified. The most recent InVEST 3.0 version of the model produces exposure layers with and without habitat scenarios so that the user can estimate the role of habitats in reducing exposure.

Preprocessing for the InVEST Coastal Vulnerability Model The Coastal Vulnerability model data inputs include

• a polyline with attributes about local coastal geomorphology (e.g., beach, dune, cliff) along the shoreline,

• polygons that represent the location of natural habitats (e.g., sea grass, kelp, wetlands),• rates of projected net sea level change, • a depth contour that can be used as an indicator for surge level (the default contour is the edge

of the continental shelf), • a digital elevation model (DEM) that represents the topography and the bathymetry of the

coastal area, • a point shapefile that contains values of observed storm wind speed and wave power, and• a raster that represents global population distribution.Preprocessing for the InVEST Coastal Vulnerability model involves compiling and formatting

each of the input GIS datasets and creating an area of interest polygon shapefile to denote the modeling extent. Wind and wave exposure data is represented in the model using a point shapefile that contains values of observed storm wind speed and wave power across an area of interest (AOI)


using Wave Watch III data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) (NOAA National Weather Service 2015). This global Wave Watch III layer is provided as base data with the InVEST tool download. The model requires that all spatial inputs be projected in World Geodetic System 1984 (WGS84). An important preprocessing step for coastal vulnerability modeling includes the projection of all input datasets to WGS84 to ensure alignment with meters as the linear unit.

The geomorphology and natural habitat are to be prepared using the best available spatial data layers for the AOI. For modeling in the United States, a local coastal geomorphology layer can be characterized using the NOAA environmental sensitivity index (ESI) datasets (NOAA Office of Response and Restoration 2015). This line shapefile input is used to compute the geomorphology ranking (1–5) of each shoreline segment on the basis of input from the InVEST coastal vulnerability guidelines (table 20.1). For example, rocky cliffs (rank = 1) are less prone to erosion and inundation than estuaries (rank = 4) or sandy beaches (rank = 5).

Table 20.1. Coastal Vulnerability Ranking System of Biogeophysical Variables for the InVEST Coastal Vulnerability Model

Variable Rank

Very Low Low Moderate High Very High

1 2 3 4 5

Geomorphology Rocky; high cliffs; fjord; fiard; seawalls

Medium cliff; indented coast, bulkheads, and small seawalls

Low cliff; glacial drift; alluvial plain, revetments, rip-rap walls

Cobble beach; estuary; lagoon; bluff

Barrier beach; sand beach; mud flat; delta

Relief 0–20 percentile

21–40 percentile

41–60 percentile

61–80 percentile

81–100 percentile

Natural Habitats Coral reef; mangrove; coastal forest

High dune; marsh

Low dune Sea grass; kelp

No habitat

Sea Level Change

0–20 percentile

21–40 percentile

41–60 percentile

61–80 percentile

81–100 percentile

Wave Exposure 0–20 percentile

21–40 percentile

41–60 percentile

61–80 percentile

81–100 percentile

Surge Potential 0–20 percentile

21–40 percentile

41–60 percentile

61–80 percentile

81–100 percentile

Source: Courtesy of The Natural Capital Project.

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In the Sonoma County case study work, we represented natural habitats (e.g., sea grass, kelp, wetlands) based on the California Department of Fish and Wildlife shapefiles created during the Marine Life Protection Act process (figure 20.3) (California Department of Fish and Wildlife 2015). The model uses these input layers to compute a Natural Habitat ranking for each shoreline segment, using the rank values in table 20.1. For example, to evaluate how the exposure of an area changes if high sand dunes are removed or lost, users can change the rank value for high sand dunes from 2 to 5.

Figure 20.3. Habitat types included in the InVEST model analysis for (left) the full Sonoma County coastline and (right) southern Sonoma County coastline. Courtesy of the Natural Capital Project and the Center for Ocean

Solutions.

Surge potential is calculated on the basis of a depth contour that can be used as an indicator for surge level, with the default contour as the edge of the continental shelf. In general, the longer the distance between the coastline and the edge of the continental shelf at a given area during a given storm, the higher the storm surge. A global continental shelf dataset is also included with the InVEST tool download and can be used for modeling unless local conditions (e.g., an island system) require an alternative layer.

A global elevation and bathymetry dataset, Global 2 Arc-Minute Ocean Depth and Land Elevation, also known as ETOPO2 (NOAA National Geophysical Data Center 2001), is provided with the InVEST tool download. Higher resolution DEMs are preferred for local-level modeling if available, as was the case with Sonoma County’s Vegetation Mapping and LiDAR Program (Sonoma County Vegetation Mapping and LiDAR Program 2015). Finally, sea level rise projections represented by a polygon shapefile of rates of projected net sea level change for a time horizon are integrated into the model. This shapefile should be created using the best available information


from tide gauges or other sensors for the area of interest. In Sonoma County, we used the sea level rise projections from the National Research Council (2012), which represents the best science for projections by the state of California, including the CCC, the agency with authority over planning decisions in California’s coastal zone.

The input data layers produced during the preprocessing stage reveal spatial variation in the variables that come together in the coastal vulnerability model to estimate differences in exposure across the study region. To map exposure under possible futures, these input data layers can be modified to reflect future scenarios of sea level rise, restoration, or conservation of habitats and changes in the intensity and frequency of storms.

InVEST Coastal Vulnerability ModelingThe InVEST Coastal Vulnerability Model produces an exposure index and coastal population raster (table 20.2). The exposure index raster contains ranks of the relative exposure of different coastline segments to erosion and inundation caused by storms within the same coastal region of interest. Ranks vary from very low exposure (rank ~1) to very high exposure (rank ~5) and are computed by taking the nth root of the product of the n variables used in the analysis. Coupled together, the exposure index and coastal population rasters can be used to create maps that show the relative vulnerability of human populations to coastal hazards and sea level rise (figure 20.4). The outputs of the model are a series of raster layers that overlay the shoreline in the coastal region of interest, with a spatial resolution defined by the user (≥250 m) (figure 20.5). The spatial resolution of analyses is based on both the scale of available data as well as the scale of the planning question. These rasters contain a number of indexes and rankings of input variables (described as follows) and can be used to create maps that fit the user’s needs. The model output creates exposure layers with and without habitat scenarios so that the user can evaluate the role of habitats in reducing exposure.

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Table 20.2. Data Outputs of the InVEST Coastal Vulnerability Model

Output Layer Name Data Type

Description

outputs\run_summary .html

HTML This file summarizes the run by showing four main pieces of information:

• A map of the area of interest (AOI), along with the AOI’s latitude and longitude

• A histogram of the exposure index (between 1 and 5) of the coastal segment

• A histogram of the vulnerability of the population living along the coast

• A histogram of the vulnerability of the urban centers along the coast

outputs\coastal exposure

Folder Contains all the layers used to compute the coastal vulnerability index.

1_a_shore_exposure.tif Raster Cells that correspond to the shoreline segments are either 0 if sheltered or 1 if exposed.

1_b_geomorphology.tif Raster Shore segments are valued from 1 to 5, depending on the geomorphology in the geomorphology layer. Lower coastal values indicate geomorphologic types that are less susceptible to erosion, and vice versa.

1_c_relief.tif Raster Shore segments are valued from 1 to 5, depending on the average elevation around that cell. Lower values indicate lower elevations.

1_d_natural_habitats.tif Raster Shore segments are valued according to the natural habitats that are present there.

1_e_wave_exposure.tif Raster Shore segments are ranked in a similar way to wind exposure but according to their exposure to waves.

1_f_surge_potential.tif Raster Segments are ranked according to their exposure to potential surge. First, the exposed segments are assigned a rank in equal proportion between 1 and 5, depending on their distance to the edge of the continental shelf. Then, these values are propagated along the sheltered coast. Isolated coastline segments (such as islands) are assigned the rank of the closest (already ranked) segment.

1_g_sea_level_rise.tif Raster Segments ranked in equal proportion between 1 and 5 based on the sea level rise value from the input shapefilea.

1_h_coastal_exposure.tif Raster Coastal exposure index computed by equation:

/1 7

EI R R R R R R RGeomorphology Relief Habitats SLR WindExposure WaveExposure Surge( )=


Figure 20.4. Flow diagram of vulnerability and adaptation to climate change adapted from Field and colleagues (2014).

Figure 20.5. InVEST analysis shows relative coastal exposure for 2050 sea level rise scenario on (left) the full Sonoma County coastline and (right) the southern Sonoma County coastline. Courtesy of the Natural Capital

Project and the Center for Ocean Solutions.

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Based on these limitations and assumptions, the InVEST Coastal Vulnerability tool is an informative approach to investigating relative exposure for a coastline and can be used to identify locations in which coastal habitats play a significant role in reducing exposure to erosion and inundation. However, for local-scale decisions regarding locally specific geomorphic conditions, further site-specific analysis is needed using advanced tools such as the InVEST Nearshore Wave and Erosion model.

Postprocessing for the InVEST Coastal Vulnerability ModelThe data outputs from the Coastal Vulnerability model contain all the data layers used to compute the coastal vulnerability index in the form of a comma-separated values (CSV) table. The CSV table contains two columns that are most relevant for visualizing results. The coastal_ex column contains results from the coastal exposure analysis, and the coastal_1 column contains exposure values without the protective service from the habitat layers included in the analysis. With the creation of a feature class, using the WGS84 coordinate system, the results can be spatially visualized along the coastline in many ways; two primary postprocessing methods are discussed as follows.

The coastal exposure values provide a relative ranking of exposure to average wind and wave conditions as well as rising seas (on the basis of values from the InVEST or Federal Emergency Management Agency [FEMA] or NOAA sea level rise input). To visually represent the coastal exposure results, the Symbology tab in the layer properties can be selected for “quantities” and then “graduated colors” for the symbology type. In the field value, coastal_ex can be selected and an appropriate point size chosen on the basis of the map and visualization needs. The symbols for the low, moderate, and high coastal exposures are best visualized using the quantile method with three breaks. Through this visualization method, the relatively higher, medium, and lower exposure values are generally represented in red, yellow, and blue, respectively.

The InVEST modeling approach offers an additional value in the ability to modify the results on the basis of a scenario in which the habitats are lost or degraded. To visually represent the role that habitat plays in reducing exposure—thus informing priority locations for preservation and restoration of natural ecosystems (nature-based adaptation strategies)—a similar symbology methodology can be used beginning with key selections. In the feature class attribute table, a float field can be added to the field named Difference. The values for the field can be calculated so that each value represents the numerical difference between the coastal_1 (no habitats) and coastal_ex (with habitats) fields, noting that all values in the Difference field should be ≥0. After the Difference field is populated, all rows can be selected in which the coastal_ex values are >3 and in which the Difference value is not equal to zero. This selection will represent coastal sections that are relatively highly exposed and in which habitat plays a role in reducing that exposure. In a similar manner, the Difference field can be symbolized using a yellow to dark-red color ramp with three quartile breaks. The darker values represent locations in which habitats play a relatively higher role in reducing exposure to coastal hazards (figure 20.6).


Figure 20.6. Priority locations for natural adaptation, determined by identifying high-exposure locations in which habitats play the largest role in reducing exposure for (left) the full Sonoma County coastline and (right) southern Sonoma County coastline. Courtesy of the Natural Capital Project and the Center for Ocean Solutions.

When overlaid with data on coastal population density, the model’s outputs can be used to identify locations in which humans face higher risks of damage from storm waves and surge (Arkema et al. 2013). This model produces a qualitative estimate of such exposure in terms of an exposure index. By coupling these results with population information, the model can show areas along a given coastline in which humans are most vulnerable to storm waves and surge. Additional local information that represents infrastructure, properties, or other assets of interest can be used to identify locations in which higher exposure leads to higher vulnerability (Langridge et al. 2014). Although this approach includes average wave and storm conditions, the model does not take into account coastal processes that are unique to a region, nor does it predict long- or short-term changes in shoreline position or configuration, or fluvial flooding.

InVEST Coastal Vulnerability Model Assumptions and LimitationsOne main limitation of this modeling approach is that the dynamic interactions of complex coastal processes that occur in a region are overly simplified into the geometric mean of seven variables and exposure categories. InVEST does not model storm surge or wave field in nearshore regions. More important, the model does not take into account the amount and quality of habitats, and it does not quantify the role of habitats for reducing coastal hazards. Also, the model does not consider any hydrodynamic or sediment transport processes: it has been assumed that regions that belong to the same broad geomorphic exposure class behave in a similar way. In addition, in using this model

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we assume that natural habitats provide protection to regions that are protected against erosion independent of their geomorphology classification (i.e., rocky cliffs). This limitation artificially deflates the relative vulnerability of these regions and inflates the relative vulnerability of regions that have a high geomorphic index. Based on these limitations and assumptions, the InVEST Coastal Vulnerability tool is an informative approach to investigate relative exposure of a coastline and identify locations in which coastal habitats play a significant role in reducing exposure. However, for local-scale decisions regarding locally specific geomorphic conditions, further analysis is needed (e.g., the InVEST Nearshore Wave and Erosion model).

Linking Geospatial Science to Climate Adaptation Planning in California As we have done in our coastal California work, ecosystem service analyses are most effectively used in a decision-making process that starts with stakeholder consultations and continues with iterative discussion that focuses on the stakeholder questions of interest and potential policy options available to the location. Through the iterative development of our work, stakeholders can use InVEST to develop spatial scenarios to evaluate, such as climate adaptation planning alternatives (figure 20.7). The map products created from the InVEST tool support the spatial evaluation of climate adaptation planning alternatives under different sea level rise scenarios and inform how the protective service provided by coastal habitats is likely to change in the future.

Figure 20.7. Flow diagram of the iterative process used for engaging planners and gaining input on coastal adaptation planning. Courtesy of the Natural Capital Project and the Center for Ocean Solutions.

We are using the outputs to better understand the relative contributions of these different model variables to coastal exposure and highlight the protective services offered by natural habitats to coastal populations. This information can help coastal managers, planners, landowners, and other stakeholders identify regions of greater risk to coastal hazards, which can in turn better inform development strategies and permitting. Results provide a qualitative representation of erosion and inundation risks rather than quantifying shoreline retreat or inundation limits.


Case Study Application of the Coastal Vulnerability Model in Sonoma CountyThe InVEST Coastal Vulnerability model was applied to investigate where habitats protect against impacts from coastal hazards, and our team is currently engaging stakeholders and policy makers to revise, improve, and translate results to meet their needs for adaptation planning. The science-policy process is iterative in that feedback we elicit from stakeholders improves the model inputs and policy relevance of outputs, and the model results in turn inform future planning discussions and so forth. In Sonoma County, north of the Russian River mouth, the predominant coastal features are kelp forests backed by mostly low coastal terraces and scattered coastal cliffs along the coast. Based on our model results, these kelp forests provide minimal reduction in exposure to erosion and inundation during storms compared with other natural habitat features in the area. The area south of the Russian River is characterized by longer beach expanses, including a two-mile-high dune and two estuaries with wetlands. These types of habitats may significantly reduce exposure to coastal impacts in this region. The spatially explicit valuation of ecosystem services supports the identification of the role of natural habitat in specific locations (e.g., high-dune systems that buffer storm surge in Sonoma County).

The map output of the InVEST model for Sonoma County depicts relative exposure to coastal erosion and inundation across the greater Sonoma County coastal area (see figure 20.5). The results identify areas of highest hazard relative to the rest of the Sonoma County coastline, indicating potential areas or hot spots to prioritize management and further quantitative modeling. The next steps involve the evaluation of any assets of interest (transportation routes such as Highway 1, coastal parks and trails, communities, public infrastructure, and so forth) to determine the relative vulnerability that the assets may experience under 2030, 2050, and 2100 sea level rise projections. To evaluate the benefits of habitat protection, the difference in relative exposure in scenarios with and without habitat were mapped and visualized (see figure 20.6).

In Sonoma County, this map highlights the relative role of habitat (low/moderate/high) in reducing exposure to erosion and inundation during storms in the highest exposure areas. For example, the habitat areas that play the largest role in reducing exposure are located in the high-dune habitat near Doran Beach and south of Salmon Creek.

Results can also help evaluate different climate adaptation strategies, and when overlaid with data on coastal population it helps identify locations in which communities face higher risks of damage from storm waves and surge. The final coastal vulnerability maps we will produce during the next steps of our work will identify where coastal habitats are currently providing protective services to people and property. The maps will depict results from a vulnerability index calculation indicating where natural and human communities are the most exposed to coastal erosion and inundation and which communities are at the greatest risk of loss of other services.

Sonoma Case Study: Adaptive PlanningSonoma County is at the beginning of a two-year grant process to incorporate the best available science on sea level rise into its local coastal program; and before receiving this grant funding, the county had been working to update its LCP. Because of the long-term nature of planning processes and the sea level rise grant timelines, the current modeling results will require a later amendment to the LCP. Our team of lawyers has worked with Sonoma County to provide countywide policy language for the current LCP update about the modeling work and vulnerability assessments that

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are currently under way. This language informs the public about the research on sea level rise that is under way through the grant process and about the optional adaptation strategies that are likely to be implemented in the upcoming LCP amendment. The language ensures that, where possible, our scientific analysis of the role that habitats play in increasing coastal resilience will be integrated into local policy.

Evaluating Adaptation Planning Alternatives Coastal communities and state agencies use analysis and mapping to employ site-specific strategies (i.e., protect, accommodate, and retreat) in a way that improves overall coastal resilience (Herzog and Hecht 2013). Retreat strategies promote the ability of natural systems (e.g., beaches, dunes, wetlands) to respond to the many impacts of climate change on the nearshore ecosystem and allow these systems to migrate landward, ensuring their survival. In turn, these systems provide cobenefits for coastal communities and mitigate impacts exacerbated by increased coastal erosion and inundation. However, given the state of existing development and infrastructure in the coastal zone, retreat strategies may not be appropriate everywhere (Bell et al. 2014). Planners need a suite of criteria for identifying which strategies, applied in which places, maximize overall resilience. In the next steps of our work, we will be examining the full range of options, from built or “gray infrastructure” to natural or “green infrastructure,” and combinations of the two.

Whether adaptation approaches will be strategic in nature, and whether they will contribute to healthy nearshore ecosystems, depends on communities’ ability to engage in long-term, science-based adaptation planning that places value on maintaining and enhancing ecosystem function and the political will to do so. Coastal communities are responding to sea level rise and damage from increased storm intensity by using gray solutions (e.g., seawalls) and green solutions (e.g., dune or wetland restoration), or a mix of both. Gray solutions are traditional approaches whose design generally does not incorporate coastal habitats. Green solutions, by contrast, consist of nature-based approaches whose design accounts for the role that habitats can play in reducing exposure to sea level rise and associated impacts and in providing additional ecosystem service benefits beyond coastal protection, such as supporting wildlife, coastal tourism, and property values.

To minimize economic and social losses associated with climate change, local, regional, and national governments are developing plans to proactively prepare, respond, and adapt in the future (table 20.3). Whether those approaches will contribute to healthy nearshore ecosystems over time will require political will to embrace approaches that simultaneously yield social, economic, and environmental resilience.


Table 20.3. Coastal Vulnerability Adaptation Strategies

Adaptation Strategy Definition Example Solution

Protection: Hold the line

Defend the location of existing development by armoring the coast with hard armoring (e.g., seawalls, riprap, revetments) or soft armoring (e.g., sand, vegetation).

The Horizontal Levee concept, implemented in San Francisco Bay, uses tidal marshes and smaller inland levees for shoreline management, capitalizing on the capacity of tidal marshes to reduce the height of storm waves (The Nature Conservancy 2014).

Green-gray hybrid

Accommodation: Adjust to the line

Increase development’s resilience to climate change and protect coastal ecosystems through the use of traditional zoning, building code, and flood protection code tools (e.g., impact fees, density restrictions, setback buffers).

The New York Aquarium experienced significant flooding damage as a result of Hurricane Sandy. Rebuilding plans call for raising the new shark building several feet higher to meet new flood-zone predictions, moving air intake vents from the flood doors to the roof, moving electrical panels out of basements, and installing full-height storm doors on some glass doors that were only partly protected (Susan A. Chin, personal communication 2015).

Gray

Retreat: Get away from the line

Channel new development out of vulnerable areas while allowing existing development to be relocated, demolished, or inundated by the rising sea.

The Surfers Point Project used a retreat strategy for a beachfront bike path, relocating the erosion-damaged infrastructure inland and restoring natural processes by replacing paved beachfront land with a cobble berm covered by vegetative dunes (The Nature Conservancy 2014).

Green-gray hybrid

Source: Adapted from Herzog and Hecht 2013.

A pitfall of adaptation planning is that some strategies have unintended adverse consequences. Maladaptation is a term used to describe an action that is ostensibly taken to avoid or reduce vulnerability to climate change but that inadvertently increases the vulnerability of other systems, sectors, or social groups. In collaboration with local planners and decision-makers, our interdisciplinary team will help counties and cities evaluate adaptation strategies to enhance resilience and avoid maladaptation. To avoid maladaptive practices, communities and state agencies should

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answer the following questions regarding project practices to address rising seas (after Barnett and O’Neill 2010):

1. Will the strategy result in a net increase in emissions of greenhouse gases?2. Will the strategy (and/or its impacts) disproportionately burden the most vulnerable people

(lower income, older, minority populations)?3. Will the strategy reduce incentives to adapt in the future?4. Will the strategy create “path dependency” (i.e., commit capital and institutions to trajectories

that are difficult to change in the future)?5. Will the strategy result in economic, social, or environmental costs that are high relative to

alternatives?

Bridging the GapAs a boundary organization that is working to bridge the gap between the research community and decision-makers, our team of scientists, analysts, and lawyers is able to (1) advance the science of ecosystem service modeling to support climate adaptation planning, (2) engage local communities in an iterative process to develop a scientifically robust coastal vulnerability assessment for Central Californian counties that enables them to quickly evaluate the relative effectiveness of various adaptation strategies, and (3) translate cutting-edge science into policy that supports the capacity of California counties to engage in sustainable coastal adaptation planning.

Our iterative approach involves partnership with the local counties and collaboration with federal and state agencies (e.g., the CCC, California State Coastal Conservancy, Ocean Protection Council, NOAA Office for Coastal Management). These engagements also provide the opportunity to interact and leverage relevant research with academic and nongovernment institutions (e.g., Sonoma County Agricultural Preservation and Open Space District, The Nature Conservancy, Central Coast Wetlands Group). Our work provides specific and tangible learning opportunities and examples for replication elsewhere by public- and private-sector interests coping with climate adaptation. Our team engages in an iterative process with county decision-makers and local officials to update local coastal planning documents for sea level rise and ensure the development of maximally useful approaches and tools for incorporating climate information into management strategies and project analysis.

TransferabilityCalifornia’s coastal jurisdictions are vastly different because of their different geomorphic characteristics (e.g., beaches, bluffs, estuaries), coastal and nearshore processes (e.g., waves, currents, sediment budgets), and rates of sea level rise. Because of these physical distinctions as well as other factors, including unique cultural and political views, each jurisdiction approaches coastal planning decisions differently. By codeveloping our methods with city- and county-level planners as well as with state-level guidance, we allow for flexibility to tailor information and refine analysis according to the jurisdictional context.

Our work is fundamentally about developing methods and transferable tools to incorporate climate information in the decision-making processes. In particular, we are uniquely positioned


to facilitate the transfer of science, approaches, lessons learned, and tools because we work with four distinct California jurisdictions that comprise a spectrum of infrastructure and economic needs (e.g., tourism, recreation, agriculture, public facilities) as well as diverse geomorphologic and biophysical characteristics (e.g., beaches, wetlands, lagoons, bluffs). Through consistent planning processes such as the LCPs, the California Coastal Act addresses land-use and development regulation in the coastal zone; and jurisdictions must prepare planning documents and zoning ordinances at this land–sea interface. Requests for increased uniformity and transferability of approaches has been noted at the local, county, and state levels. Our work across jurisdictions not only helps these jurisdictions learn from one another but also fosters collaboration with state and federal agencies to inform the transfer of knowledge from these jurisdictions to other jurisdictions in California and beyond.

A similar approach has been applied in other California coastal climate adaptation planning contexts to locate specific natural habitats that can reduce vulnerability to sea level rise and storms (Langridge et. al 2014). Although each coastal jurisdiction is unique in California and uses local planning documents that reflect their social and biophysical attributes, each jurisdiction must adhere to California’s overarching legal framework pertaining to sea level rise. By strategically choosing adaptation alternatives, jurisdictions can work to protect people and property while also protecting or restoring dwindling critical habitat and the full suite of benefits that those habitats provide to coastal inhabitants. Sea level rise management and climate adaptation planning require a comprehensive understanding of the interplay between the ecological, legal, social, and political systems in these particular jurisdictions.

ConclusionThe map products created from the InVEST tool support the spatial evaluation of climate adaptation planning alternatives under different sea level rise scenarios and how ecosystem services provided by coastal protection are likely to change in the future. This modeling and mapping approach has allowed our team to visually represent the role that natural habitat plays in reducing coastal exposure in Sonoma County, which will allow us to inform priority locations for nature-based adaptation strategies during the next steps of our collaborative work.

Through the use of the InVEST Coastal Vulnerability tool, our team can provide relevant scientific information in a format that is relevant for climate adaptation planning discussions and ultimately relevant for policy decisions to meet the requirements of the California Coastal Act. Codeveloping our methodology with city- and county-level planners and state-level guidance provide us the flexibility to tailor information and refine analysis according to the jurisdictional context. We will work with Sonoma County to employ a range of project-level strategies (protection, accommodation, and retreat) that are calculated to improve overall resilience through a mixture of gray and green solutions (see table 20.3). Sonoma County will set a precedent in developing community-scale adaptation policies in a way that takes ecosystem service analysis into account. Through the use of the InVEST Coastal Vulnerability tool, our team can provide relevant scientific information in a format that is relevant for climate adaptation planning discussions and ultimately relevant for policy decisions to meet the requirements of the California Coastal Act.

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AcknowledgmentsThis chapter was improved by the constructive critique of three anonymous reviewers.

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K. Takahashi. 2007. “Assessment of Adaptation Practices, Options, Constraints, and Capacity.” In Climate Change 2007: Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by M. L. Parry, O. Canziani, J. P. Palutikof, C. and P. van der Linden. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.

Arkema, K., G. Guannel, G. Verutes, S. A. Wood, A. Guerry, M. Ruckelshaus, P. Kareiva, M. Lacayo, and J. M. Silver. 2013. “Coastal Habitats Shield People and Property from Sea-Level Rise and Storms.” Nature Climate Change 3 (10): 1–6.

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Supplemental ResourcesDawn J. Wright, ed.; 2016; Ocean Solutions, Earth Solutions, second edition; http://dx.doi.org/10.17128

/9781589484603_20d

For the digital content that goes with this chapter, explained below in this section, go to the following link or QR code. A hyperlink is also available in the book’s online resources (esri.com /esripress-resources/ocean-solutions-2e).

Story Map app• Incorporating Natural Capital into Climate Adaptation Planning, http://arcg.is/1Rk7gCb

This Story Map app explains how incorporating natural capital into climate change adaptation planning can aid coastal planners in making cost-effective, informed decisions that protect both natural habitats and the communities that depend on them. The Story Map focuses on Sonoma County, California, and identifies where natural habitats play the largest relative role in protecting coastal communities from climate change impacts in that region.

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