Sciencephotolibrary. UNFCCC COP and MOP outcomes – a brief history and current status Parliament...
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Transcript of Sciencephotolibrary. UNFCCC COP and MOP outcomes – a brief history and current status Parliament...
UNFCCC COP and MOP outcomes – a brief history and
current status
Parliament 27th October 2011
Dr Guy Midgley
Chief Director South African National Biodiversity Institute; IPCC co-
ordinating lead author
Most observed warming since the mid-20th century
is very likely the result(confidence >90%)
of the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse
gas concentrations –
warming is unequivocal
IPCC (2007)
Climate challenge
4
History of the UNFCCC and its Kyoto Protocol• Rio Earth Summit 1992 established a
framework Convention to address climate change
• Context: a new awareness of global sustainability and socio-economic shifts and links
• Convention => high level statement of principle and approach, entered into force 1995 = COP1
• Subsequent negotiated decisions (COPs and inter-sessionals) give substance to the Convention and bind countries to implement with Secretariat support
• Key principle “common but differentiated responsibilities”
• Art 2 i: Stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system
• Art 2 ii: Such a level should be achieved within a time frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner
Article 2 of the Convention (Objective)
6
History of the UNFCCC and its Kyoto Protocol
• Kyoto Protocol adopted 1997 – legally binding instrument, sets net emissions targets for “Annex 1” countries and elaborates “modalities” (5.2% below 1990 levels by end of 1st commitment period)
• USA did not accede, (Australia followed) thus creating major imbalance in system, especially fairness and competitiveness issues in Annex 1.
• Delays in bringing Kyoto into effect, Russia’s signature in 2004 “activated” KP in 2004
• First MOP in Montreal in 2005 – 1st commitment period set for 2008-2012
• AWK-KP established to review Annex 1 targets
7
History of the UNFCCC and its Kyoto Protocol
• COP13/MOP3 Bali• Bali Action Plan – focuses on 4 building
blocks – mitigation, adaptation, finance and technology transfer
• Ad hoc Working Group on Long term Co-operative Action (AWG-LCA) established to give substance to the Bali Action Plan
• “Shared vision for long-term cooperative action, including a long-term global goal for emission reductions”
• Two-year “Bali roadmap” setting up COP15 in Copenhagen for a major move forward
• Complex linkages between AWG-LCA and KP and delicate, complex “balance”
8
BALI TO COPENHAGEN (2007,8,9)• 2009 – deadline re 2nd commitment period;
expectation to conclude negotiation on LCA• Technical negotiations stall on political issues• Japan, Russia, EU signal backtracking on Kyoto, some
lack of transparency • Proposals for new Convention architecture & new
protocol• Polarised politics, process stall progress on substance• Copenhagen Accord – political agreement recording
consensus of key groups apart from ALBA therefore only “noted” by COP
• Resolves key issue of “common but differentiated responsibility and respective capability” particularly around mitigation, review of global goal, deforestation
• Does not resolve global goal, level of ambition or Kyoto Protocol (implication for carbon “space”)
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• Sets up largest collective effort so far to reduce emissions, in a mutually accountable way, with national plans captured formally at international level under UNFCCC (Copenhagen Accord +)
• Comprehensive package framework to help developing nations deal on climate change: finance, technology, capacity-building support to meet urgent adaption needs, and to adopt sustainable paths to low emission economies resilient to adverse impacts of climate change (incl. Green Climate Fund)
• Schedule for nations to review the progress towards objective of keeping the average global temperature rise below 2°C
• Agreement to review whether the objective needs to be strengthened in future (1.5°C?), on the basis of the best scientific knowledge available
CANCUN outcomes (2010)
Current pledges projectedoutcome
Trajectory of Global Fossil Fuel EmissionsCO
2 em
issio
ns (P
g C
y-1) CO
2 emissions (Pg CO
2 y-1)
Growth rate1990-1999
1 % per year
Growth rate2000-2009
2.5 % per year
Time (y)
2009: Emissions:8.4±0.5 PgCGrowth rate: -1.3%1990 level: +37%
2000-2008Growth rate: +3.2%
2010 (projected):Growth rate: >3%1990 1995 2000 2005 2010