Monterey Peninsula Water Mngmnt DistrictMonterey County Water Resources AgencySan Luis Obispo County, Dept. of PWsMonterey One WaterBureau of Reclamation

Salinas and Carmel Rivers Basin Study

Basin Study Team Meeting

December 6, 2018

• Discuss the Basin Study process

• Provide update on activities

• Obtain input from study partners

Introductions and Meeting Purpose

Initial Glossary for the SCRBS

Learning appropriate vernacular and terms is essential for understanding the dynamic process of the Basin Study - This is helpful for meaningful collaboration:

• Considers the vernacular of the Bureau of Reclamation, the state and local jurisdictional terms of art

• Terminology must be defined and properly interpreted for the region to fully benefit from the Basin Study process

– What is an objective– What is a metric– Projects, portfolios, strategies

• Glossary will help us to all stay on the same page during the process

Initial Glossary for the SCRBS

• The Glossary will be in the front of the document and is designed to help people understand the methodology

• Basin Study Objectives: The overarching objective of Reclamation’s Basin Study Program…

• Metrics: assess the effectiveness of adaptation strategies to meet the Basin Study objectives…

• The Basin Study Team identified four categories of metrics for use in the Basin Study: - Climate Metrics - Water Supply Metrics- Water Demand Metrics - Water Management Metrics

Acronyms and Abbreviations for the SCRBS

Acronyms and Abbreviations will be in the back of the document

– AET actual ET – Basins Study Salinas/Carmel Rivers Basins Studies– BCSD Bias Correction and Spatial Downscaling – BMP best management practices – CAT Climate Action Team – CCTAG Climate Change Technical Advisory Group – CDEC California Data Exchange Center

SCRBS Planning Process

2. Stakeholder processes

Program Activities & Schedule

Stakeholder Input to demands

Stakeholder Input to project opportunities

Share results with Stakeholder

Share results with Stakeholders

2. Characterize Climate Change

Modeling Coordination

Application of Local Models

- Evaluate Alternatives

Application of Local Models:

- Incorporate USBR Climate Change Inputs

1. Develop Study Metrics

6. Adaptation & Mitigation Strategies

5. Evaluate Supplies, Demands

& Operations

7. Evaluate Adaptation & Mitigation Strategies

8. Basin Study Report

Modeling Coordination

Modeling Coordination

Modeling Coordination

Present report to Stakeholders

4. Develop Tools & Inputs

3. Develop Scenarios

Modeling Coordination

Modeling Coordination

Salinas and Carmel River Basin Study

Original Diagram was a linear perspective

11 Ancillary Tasks: Communication and Outreach, Meetings Data Management

Program Activities & Schedule

Share results with Stakeholder

Share results with Stakeholders

4. Characterize Climate Change (USBR)

Application of Models: Define the problem under range of climate and socioeconomic conditions

3. Develop Study Metrics (BC/USBR)

8. Adaptation & Mitigation Strategies (BC)

7. Evaluate Supplies, Demands & Operations

9. Evaluate Adaptation & Mitigation Strategies

10. Basin Study Report

Present report to Stakeholders

6. Develop Tools & Inputs (USGS)

5. Develop Scenarios(BC/USBR)

Salinas and Carmel River Basin Study

1 Orientation, Meetings, Review In

formation

Define the future climate and socioeconomic scenarios

Define how to measure success

Identify projects to address the defined problem

Apply models to evaluate strategies against the Objectives/Metrics

Define the future climate conditions

Update: Acknowledge parallel analyses coming together to evaluate mitigation strategies

Today’s Meeting

Task 3 Develop Study Metrics

TM 1 Discussed Objectives and Metrics

• Why we look at how to evaluate projects at the beginning of the study:– What must be addressed to meet Reclamation requirements for a basin study– What is important to the stakeholders in the watershed– What questions or issues do the analytical tools need to address

• Technical Memorandum 1 addressed:– objectives– metrics

Objectives

• Objectives represent the requirements of Reclamation, the desires of the local agencies and stakeholders and regulatory constraints (e.g., SGMA, Instream Flow Requirements)

• The SCRBS objectives were derived from:– Reclamation guidance for basin studies– Local IRWM objectives– SGMA requirements

Category Objective Performance measure

Water supplies and demands

Improve reliability and sustainability Frequency, duration, and extent of shortfallsDiversify supplies Number of sources of supply and magnitudeMaximize conservation Water demand compared to demand target

Groundwater management

Attain or maintain groundwater levels and storage Groundwater elevation and volume in storage

Reduce/prevent seawater intrusion Distance inland from coastMaintain water quality Actual water quality compared to criteriaPrevent land subsidence Amount of subsidenceAttain or maintain beneficial use of interconnected surface water Amount and direction of interflow

Flood protection Prevent damage to urban areas and agriculture Flow levels compared to maximum allowable flows

Damage costs compared to baselineClimate change Understand and plan for climate change impacts Met by Basin Study

Water qualityDrinking water standards Actual water quality compared to standardsWaste discharge criteria Actual water quality compared to standardsReuse criteria Actual water quality compared to standards

EnvironmentalInvasive species management Extent of invasive species

Maintain species and habitat Amount of species and protected and improved habitat

Maintain instream flows Instream flows compared to baseline

Power/energy No impact to existing hydropower generation Change in outputEnergy efficiency Level of demands

Stakeholder support and regional collaboration

Collaboration between urban, rural, and agricultural, as well as regional, state, and federal entities Extent of collaboration and support

Cost effective adaptive management strategies Identify effective adaptation and mitigation strategies Extent of effectiveness

Objectives Defined in TM-1 (Table 6)

Metrics

• Metrics that define model inputs or constraints:– Climate Metrics: Climate Variable, Spatial Scale, Temporal Scale, and Statistic– Water Demand Metrics– Water Supply Metrics

• Metrics that define the output: – Water Management Metrics– Define the output from the models – Quantitative values that can be used to score strategies against the objectives

Water Management MetricsTM-1 Table 12. Water Management Metrics

Category Metric Description

Water DeliveryGross Water Delivery Annual and/or seasonal gross water delivery from a given water supply to a given water demand1

Frequency of Water Delivery Imbalance Frequency of negative water demand imbalances (total water delivery less than demand, i.e., delivery shortage) for a given water demand.

Magnitude of Water Delivery Imbalance Magnitude of negative water demand imbalances (total water delivery less than demand, i.e., delivery shortage) for a given water demand.

Flood Control

Frequency of Exceeding Guide Curve Elevation Frequency of reservoir water surface elevation exceeding the applicable guide curve.

Magnitude of Exceeding Guide Curve Elevation Magnitude by which reservoir water surface elevation exceeds applicable guide curve.

Duration of Exceeding Guide Curve Elevation Duration for which reservoir water surface elevation exceeds applicable guide curve.

Frequency of Releases above Threshold Frequency of reservoir release in excess of maximum desired release rate.4

Magnitude of Releases above Threshold Magnitude of reservoir release in excess of maximum desired release rate. 4

Duration of Releases above Threshold Duration of reservoir release in excess of maximum desired release rate. 4

Frequency of Streamflow in Excess of Channel Capacity Frequency of streamflow exceeding channel capacity (includes streamflow from reservoir release(s) and unregulated runoff).

Hydropower

Recreation Frequency of Rapid Reservoir Drawdown Frequency of daily reservoir drawdown in excess of 6 inches per day.5

Environmental

Salinas River Steelhead Flow Prescription –Steelhead Upstream Passage Number of days each year when conditions sufficient for steelhead adult upstream passage occur in the Salinas River.2

Salinas River Steelhead Flow Prescription –Smolt Outmigration Block Flow

Occurrence and duration each year of engineered block flow for steelhead smolt outmigration. 2

Salinas River Steelhead Flow Prescription –Juvenile Passage to Salinas River Lagoon

Number of days each year when conditions sufficient for steelhead juvenile passage to the Salinas River lagoon occur. 2

Salinas River Live Stream Rule –Frequency of live stream below Salinas Dam

Number of days each year when visible flow occurs in the Salinas River below Salinas Dam per Permit 5882, as amended.

Salinas River Live Stream Rule –Frequency of inflow bypass for live stream rule

Number of days each year when Salinas Reservoir (Santa Margarita Lake) bypasses inflow per Permit 5882, as amended.

Carmel River Minimum Instream Flow – Frequency of meeting required minimum flow Number of days each year when minimum instream flow requirement is achieved.

Water Quality Sea Water Intrusion Annual seawater inflow to coastal groundwater sub-basins3

Sustainability

Change in Groundwater Levels Annual change in groundwater levels within a groundwater sub-basin or defined water balance sub-region.

Change in Groundwater Storage Annual change in groundwater storage within a groundwater sub-basin or defined water balance sub-region.

Surface-Water Depletion Annual surface-water depletion within a groundwater sub-basin or defined water balance sub-region associated with groundwater use.

Land Subsidence TBD

Relate Objectives to Water Management Metrics

Objectives• Water supplies and

demands• Groundwater• Flood protection• Climate change• Water quality• Environmental• Hydroelectric power

and recreation• Stakeholder support

and regional collaboration

• Adaptation and mitigation strategies

Water Management Metrics• Salinas River Steelhead Flow Prescription –Steelhead

Upstream Passage • Salinas River Steelhead Flow Prescription – Smolt

Outmigration Block Flow• Salinas River Steelhead Flow Prescription – Juvenile

Passage to Salinas River Lagoon• Salinas River Live Stream Rule – Frequency of live

stream below Salinas Dam• Salinas River Live Stream Rule – Frequency of inflow

bypass for live stream rule• Carmel River Minimum Instream Flow –Frequency of

meeting required minimum flow • Sea Water Intrusion• Change in Groundwater Levels• Change in Groundwater Storage• Surface-Water Depletion• Land Subsidence

• Gross Water Delivery• Frequency of Water Delivery Imbalance• Magnitude of Water Delivery Imbalance• Frequency of Exceeding Guide Curve

Elevation• Magnitude of Exceeding Guide Curve

Elevation• Duration of Exceeding Guide Curve

Elevation• Frequency of Releases above Threshold• Magnitude of Releases above Threshold• Duration of Releases above Threshold• Frequency of Streamflow in Excess of

Channel Capacity• Frequency of Rapid Reservoir Drawdown

Category

Hydr

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Recr

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Wat

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Metric

Gro

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Del

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Del

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Mag

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Category Objective

Water supplies and demands

Project future water supply and demand considering changes in climate, runoff, groundwater recharge and discharge, water demands, and reservoir evaporation.

x x x x x x x

Attain or maintain target groundwater levels and storage x x xPrevent or reduce seawater intrusion x xMaintain groundwater quality

Prevent land subsidence x x xAttain or maintain beneficial use of interconnected surface water x x xAnalyze impacts of supply changes x x xPrevent damage to urban areas and agriculture x x x x x x xAnalyze performance of infrastructure considering climate change, extreme events, and population growth

Understand and plan for climate change impacts

Analyze impacts of supply changes

Meet drinking water standards

Meet waste discharge criteria

Meet reuse criteria

Analyze impacts of supply changes

Manage invasive species

Maintain species and habitat x x x x x xMeet instream flow requirements x x x x x xAnalyze impacts of supply changes xMaintain or increase hydropower generation x

Stakeholder support and Regional Coordination

Improve collaboration between urban, rural, and agricultural, as well as regional, state, and federal entities

Identify effective adaptation and mitigation strategies

Improve reliability and sustainability of water supplies

Diversify water supplies

Maximize water conservation

Adaptation and mitigation strategies

Hydroelectric power and Recreation

Basin Study Objectives versus Metrics the models will measure

Basi

n St

udy

Obj

ectiv

es fr

om T

able

6

Groundwater

Flood protection

Climate change

Water quality

Environmental

Metrics to be Measured by the Models From Table 12 of TM1

Water Delivery Flood Control Environmental Sustainability

Develop Scoring TablesFor each Objective create a single sheet illustrating the Water Management Metric outputs that will address the success of a Strategy

Objective

Study Metrics / Performance Measures

Change in Groundwater Levels

Change in Groundwater Storage

Surface-Water Depletion

Land Subsidence

Sea Water Intrusion TBD

No ActionStrategy #1Strategy #2Strategy #3Strategy #4Strategy #4Corresponding Objective (1) (1) (5) (4) (2) (3)

Qualitative / Quantitative Quantitative Quantitative Quantitative Qualitative ** Qualitative ** TBD **

Wa ter Q u a l i ty

Groundwater

(1) Attain or maintain target groundwater levels and storage(2) Prevent or reduce sea water intrusion(3) Maintain groundwater quality(4) Prevent land subsidence(5) Attain or maintain beneficial use of interconnected surface water

Su s ta i n a b i l i ty

Task 4 Characterize Climate Change

• Objective: Distill large number of climate projections into a manageable number of scenarios for detailed analysis.

• Approach: Combination of ensemble-informed and transient methods

- Develop time-varying climate change signal from selected subsets of climate projections

- Impose climate change signal on observed historical climate variability

Climate Scenarios

• Objective: Distill large number of climate projections into a manageable number of scenarios for detailed analysis.

Climate Scenarios

Wetter-Warmer

Hotter-Drier

Warmer-Drier

Hotter-Wetter

All scenarios are completed, undergoing thorough review.

Basin-Averaged Annual Precipitation Basin-Averaged Annual Mean Temperature

• Next Steps:

– Complete review of scenarios

– Provide to USGS for development of model inputs.

– Complete documentation and provide to study team for review (Tech Memo No. 3 from Plan of Study)

Climate Scenarios

Task 5 Develop Scenarios

Score Portfolios under Various Scenarios

• SCRBS addresses water resources to 2100: projecting 80 years into the future has significant uncertainty

• We address uncertainty with sensitivity analysis by defining scenarios that address a range of futures

• Climatic Scenarios: Ranges of temperature and precipitation with varying climate

• Socioeconomics Scenarios:– Changes in urban area and water practices– Changes in agricultural acreage, crops, irrigation practices

Nine Scenarios to Address Uncertainty

3 Socioeconomic Scenarios

3 Cl

imat

e Sc

enar

ios

Task 6 Develop Tools and Inputs Status

Regional Surface Water Model Modification

• Updated climate footprint from domain to provide consistent climate for all study areas.

• Updated discretization to connect with Paso Robles Basin Model (yellow)

• Extended model area to cover Monterey Peninsula (yellow-coastal)

Work on Model Tool Configuration

• Continued development of Salinas Valley Operational Model with Reservoir Operations

• Paso Robles model updates• To connect to regional HSPF model• Allow higher resolution temporal climate

data• Develop agricultural demands using Farm

Process (FMP4)

Green region modified for connection to Paso Robles Model

Study Climate Scenario Implementation

Project Progress:

• Automating workflow for generating climate data for models • Will begin downscaling climate ensemble data for models by end of 2018 • Will finish climate data generation by March 2019

Climate Ensembles

Downscaling climate data to regional scale

Climate Inputs for Model

December 2018

March 2019

Model Tool Needs• Develop baseline land use

• Finalize mechanism to distribute updated land use in socio-economic scenarios

• Develop framework for Socio-Economic Scenarios• Propose mapping water demands by sector to population• Distribute demands across existing wells• Scale by population and distribute by census block

• Define Carmel River Diversions and ASR Operations

Task 9: Evaluate Adaptation & Mitigation Strategies

Action

Action

Action

Action

Action

Action

Action

Action

Action

Action

Formulate StrategiesIdentify Potential

Mitigation Actions

Task 8 Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies

Strategy #1

Strategy #2

Screening Actions and Strategies

Strategy #1

Strategy #2

Action

Action

Action

Action

Action

Action

Action

Action

Action

Action

Screen Against Objectives

Model RunsFormulate StrategiesIdentify Potential

Mitigation Actions

Metric Outputs

Task 8 Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies Task 9 Evaluate Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies

Strategy Performance

Strategy #1

Strategy #2

Screening Actions and Strategies

Strategy #1

Strategy #2

Robust Strategies

Example of Strategy Performance Display

Performance of Strategies against the No Project

Schedule

Basin ReportClimate

Change TM

Scenarios TMModel Tools TM

Develop Strategies TM

Evaluate Strategies TM

Supplies, Demands, and Operations TM

2017 2018 2019 2020

Summary of Future Tasks

• Task 3. Objectives/metrics– Awaiting comments on draft TM with consolidated

objectives

• Task 4. Climate change/sea level rise– Release draft TM in early 2019– Linkage to IRWMPs

• Task 5. Study Scenarios– Draft socioeconomic scenarios developed– Enhancing agricultural portion– Add climate scenarios– Release draft TM

• Task 6. Modeling tools– Work underway– Targeting early 2019 for draft TM

• Task 7. Water supplies, demands, and operations– Start early 2019

Upcoming Activities• Task 8. Adaptation and mitigation strategies

– Linkage to DCP input– Coordinate with GSAs– Start identifying strategies

• Task 9. Evaluate Strategies– Linkage to DCP input– Coordinate with GSAs– Start developing methodology

• Task 10. Basin Study– Linkage to DCP input– Coordinate with GSAs– Complete in 2020

• Task 11.1. Public outreach– Public meeting in 2019

• Task 11.2. Meetings– Public meeting in 2019

Salinas and Carmel Basins Study

Additional Information:

Reclamation’s Basin Study Web Site:www.usbr.gov/watersmart/bsp/index.html

Reclamation Basin Study Contact Information:Arlan Nickel – Project Manager (916) 978-5061Email: anickel@usbr.gov