An Evolving Work Program Margaret Grosh

Global Expert

Team for Safety

Nets Safety nets re non-contributory

transfer programs targeted to the

poor or those vulnerable to

poverty and shocks. Some people

refer to such programs described

as social assistance or social

welfare programs. Common

safety net programs include: cash

transfers, labor intensive public

works programs, in-kind transfers

such as school feeding Fee

waivers for essential services,

price subsidies, etc.ditional

Cash Transfers,

Safety Nets

in Times of

Crisis and of

Growth

Crisis

Agendas Social Safety Nets are non-contributory

transfer programs targeted to the poor or

those vulnerable to poverty and shocks.

Some people refer to such programs

described as social assistance or social

welfare programs. Common safety net

programs include:

Cash Transfers and Conditional Cash

Transfers, Food-related Programs, Price &

Other Subsidies, Public Works, Health

care services, Education, electricity and

housing.

Social safety nets are only one part of the

Safety Nets at the Bank www.worldbank.org/safetynets Since 1987

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Cumulative Number of Countries with World Bank Lending For Safety Nets As counted by Theme code 54

2015

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87

Retrospective

What Was Going on in the 1980s?

• The international debt crisis • Structural adjustment and

attendant controversies • The Lost Decade for

Development • Recognition of Social Costs of

Crisis and Adjustment

In the Bank • Health and Ed portfolios small • Just beginning to work on

household survey data • Just beginning to deal with

civil society organizations

In Safety Nets • Chile invents the proxy means

test in 1980

• Maharashtra state in India is running and evaluating an Employment Guarantee scheme

• Jamaica replaces food subsidies with food stamps in 1984

• The bleak prospects for growth and fiscal pressure puts social assistance and targeting on the agenda

In Development

2015

2015

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Headline 1987

Bolivia ESF: 1st WB loan for social costs of adjustment

Starts Wave of Social Funds vehicle for funding labor intensive public works quickly spreads to 50+ countries many evolve in directions of decentralization or

CDD programs a plurality focus on labor intensive public works,

response to natural disasters, or social care services

2015

Bo

livia

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19

87

Headline 1994

Armenia invents Paros PMT system

initially used for humanitarian assistance in 1997 used to target new Family Poverty Benefit reform had elements common to others in the region: consolidation of many small programs; move from categorical to needs based targeting; replaces untargeted electricity subsidy with targeted cash subsidy a continuing story of improving systems and results

Arm

eni a

Par

os

2015

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19

87

Headline 1995/7

Brazil and Mexico start CCT Programs

Beginning of wave of CCTs Spreads to 30+ countries Mexico’s PROGRESSA sparks wave of rigorous

impact evaluations Use of informatics and transparency provides a

vision of modern, accountable social assistance

Bra

zil a

nd

Mex

ico

st

art

CC

T

2015

Bo

livia

ESF

19

87

Headline 1998

East Asia + Financial Crisis

Actions: Many new programs of all types, Big upsurge in safety nets lending Lessons: Need for safety nets, ability to limit long

term harm In need for prior investment in

administrative systems B

razi

l an

d M

exic

o

star

t C

CT

East

Asi

a +

Fin

anci

al c

risi

s

2015

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87

Headline 2001

Colombia, Jamaica, Turkey 1st WB loans for CCTs

Bra

zil a

nd

Mex

ico

st

art

CC

T Ea

st A

sia

+ F

inan

cial

cri

sis

Firs

t C

CT

Loan

s

First time Bank lends for a cash transfer Human capital argument in the co-responsibilities key to clearance through legal department

2015

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Headline 2001

World Bank Social Protection Strategy Paper

Bra

zil a

nd

Mex

ico

st

art

CC

T Ea

st A

sia

+ F

inan

cial

cri

sis

Firs

t C

CT

Loan

s

Articulates efficiency motive for SSN to: help households manage risk help households invest help govts reform in other sectors Messages resonate with clients, other donors, scholars

WB

SP

Str

ateg

y p

ape

r

2015

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87

Headline 2002

Chile Solidario Established

Bra

zil a

nd

Mex

ico

st

art

CC

T Ea

st A

sia

+ F

inan

cial

cri

sis

Firs

t C

CT

Loan

s

•Focuses on chronic poor •Linking them into many existing social protection programs •Provides pyscho-social support as well •Is echoed in time in many other countries working on the “graduation’ or ‘social inclusion’ or ‘activation’ agenda

WB

SP

Str

ateg

y p

ape

r

Ch

ile S

olid

ario

2015

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Headline 2004

Ethiopia Productive Safety Net Program

Bra

zil a

nd

Mex

ico

st

art

CC

T Ea

st A

sia

+ F

inan

cial

cri

sis

Firs

t C

CT

Loan

s

a large scale safety net mostly public works unconditional cash transfer for those who

can’t work reform of humanitarian aid to make it more

productive “saving livelihoods as well as lives” Exemplar of vision for low income countries, First WB investment financing for unconditional

cash transfer

WB

SP

Str

ateg

y p

ape

r

Eth

iop

ia P

SNP

Change 2005-2008

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Headline 2005

Mahatma Gandi Indian National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (NREGA)

Bra

zil a

nd

Mex

ico

st

art

CC

T Ea

st A

sia

+ F

inan

cial

cri

sis

Firs

t C

CT

Loan

s

-- Guarantees up to 100 days of employment per

year for adult rural Indians

A symbol of and inspiration to the rights based approach to social protection

A reminder that of success is determined by implementation and governance

W

B S

P S

trat

egy

pap

er

Eth

iop

ia P

SNP

Ind

ia N

REG

A

2015

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Headline 2006

Livingstone Call for Action

Bra

zil a

nd

Mex

ico

st

art

CC

T Ea

st A

sia

+ F

inan

cial

cri

sis

Firs

t C

CT

Loan

s

Representatives from 13 African countries; Calls for more ‘social transfer’ programs, More capacity building, long term funding

commitments; Sets schedule for developing costed local

plans and bi-annual S-S conference

WB

SP

Str

ateg

y p

ape

r

Eth

iop

ia P

SNP

Ind

ia N

REG

A

Lliv

ings

ton

e

Cal

l fo

r A

ctio

n

2015

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87

Headline 2006

World Bank WDR: Equity and Development

Bra

zil a

nd

Mex

ico

st

art

CC

T Ea

st A

sia

+ F

inan

cial

cri

sis

Firs

t C

CT

Loan

s

Re-establishes within the World Bank the importance of equity, a language to discuss it

Makes it easier to articulate that safety nets have both equity and risk management goals

WB

SP

Str

ateg

y p

ape

r

Eth

iop

ia P

SNP

Ind

ia N

REG

A

WD

R 2

00

6

2015

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87

Headline 2008

Food & Fuel Price Increases, Financial Crisis Hits

Bra

zil a

nd

Mex

ico

st

art

CC

T Ea

st A

sia

+ F

inan

cial

cri

sis

Firs

t C

CT

Loan

s W

B S

P S

trat

egy

pap

er

Eth

iop

ia P

SNP

Ind

ia N

REG

A

WD

R 2

00

6

Cri

ses

World Bank Index of Commodity Prices

0

100

200

300

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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

(June 2008

Energy Food Grains

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Headline 2008/9 2/3s developing countires improve SSN during crisis

Bra

zil a

nd

Mex

ico

st

art

CC

T Ea

st A

sia

+ F

inan

cial

cri

sis

Firs

t C

CT

Loan

s W

B S

P S

trat

egy

pap

er

Eth

iop

ia P

SNP

Ind

ia N

REG

A

WD

R 2

00

6

Cri

ses

2015

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Feature Story 2008-2011

World Bank Lending for SSN Surges

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Grant Amounts (left axis)

IDA - Lending Amount (left axis)

IBRD - Lending Amount (left axis)

Lending in Countries (number, right axis)

Analytic. & Advisory Activities (no, right axis)

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Recent Trends The Increase in Social Pensions

Headline: The Expansion in Social Pensions

Time Line of Social Pensions Reforms in Latin America

Iconic cases –South Africa, Brazil, Bolivia much earlier, but recently take off elsewhere

2015

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Feature Story: last few years

IT Revolution

Bra

zil a

nd

Mex

ico

st

art

CC

T Ea

st A

sia

+ F

inan

cial

cri

sis

Firs

t C

CT

Loan

s

Bio-ID (fingerprints, facial and iris screening)

Branchless banking for payment systems

Cell phone/tablet surveys and data systems

Cheaper technology, more transparent processes, working on “last mile” issues

WB

SP

Str

ateg

y p

ape

r

Eth

iop

ia P

SNP

Ind

ia N

REG

A

Livi

ngs

ton

e C

all f

or

Act

ion

IT R

evo

luti

on

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Continuing Trends

S-S learning Big-Time

Bra

zil a

nd

Mex

ico

st

art

CC

T Ea

st A

sia

+ F

inan

cial

cri

sis

Firs

t C

CT

Loan

s W

B S

P S

trat

egy

pap

er

Eth

iop

ia P

SNP

Ind

ia N

REG

A

Lliv

ings

ton

e

Cal

l fo

r A

ctio

n

IS-S

lear

nin

g gr

ow

s

The time is ripe for it -- an explosion of policy action -- How To issues prominent on agenda

Lots of activity in the field

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Continuing Trends SSN are among the most evaluated areas in development

2015

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Continuing Trends Analysis at System as well as Program Level

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10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

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70%

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90%

100%

ARG BRA CHL COL ECU HND MEX PER SLV URY

CCTs School feeding Social pension Family and Child benefits Disability benefits Other

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Op Ed 2013

Issues Today

Growing but not universal understanding of value of safety nets

Lots of diversity and debate universal versus targeted programs; conditional vs non-conditional, shape and size of welfare state

Continuation of ‘first generation’ how-to issues, especially in low

income countries

Resurgence of interest in making SSN more “productive’ via links to nutrition, education, labor markets, micro-finance, agriculture, etc.

Maybe development of ‘missing instruments’ to support unemployed or employed with plummeting incomes?

2015

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Op Ed 2013 World Bank Lending – a diverse portfolio

CCT, 49 SA / Income Support, 68

Family/Child Allow., 5

Non-contrib pensions, 4

Disability benefits, 5

Basic transfers, 2

Education, 22 Training , 26 Health, 26 Energy/util, 5 Housing , 4

62

21

162

19

14

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

Cash

Non-cash

Public works

Microcr / incomegen.

TA, instit. improv.

Others

Food (incl.Nutrition)

Number of SSN Activities by Type, FY07-13

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World Bank Supplies Knowledge Resources for SSN

www.worldbank.org/safetynets www.worldbank.org/rsr

Website: News, events, publications Publications Database ADEPT SP & Other Toolkits Primer Series Core Course Training & South-South Learning Events

SSN How To

Coming Soon

ASPIRE World Atlas

Know How on Means Testing and Community

Based Targeting

Urban Safety Nets

Dozens of country-specific engagements