SAFETY IN NUMBERS

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“(...) laws should be revised toreflect the premise that the number

of collisions with vulnerable roadusers is determined largely by

motorist behaviour.”

FACT SHEET

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FACT SHEETSAFETY IN NUMBERS

SAFETY IN NUMBERS

• Countries with the lowest levels of cycle usehave the poorest cyclist safety records.• The Netherlands has witnessed a 45%increase in cycling and a 58% decrease infatalities between 1980 - 2005• London saw a 91% increase in cycling since1990 and a 33% fall in cycling casualtiesbetween 1994 and 1998

SMEED'S LAW

The concept of 'Safety in Numbers' is not new. Itwas first demonstrated in 1949 by Smeed1 withregard to motor vehicle use when data from 62countries showed that road fatalities per vehiclewere lower in countries with more driving. Therelationship - an exponential curve - has becomeknown as Smeed's Law and has stood the test oftime well, being verified in examinations of dataacross 42 years in the UK2 and 110 years inAustralia3. As can be seen in the below graph ofWalking and Cycling in California, it can be justas easily adapted to cycling figures which showa perfect ‘Smeed curve’”

safety in numbers2

Safety in numbersCycle mode share v fatality rate and helmet-wearing rate

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SAFETY IN NUMBERS

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GLOBAL STUDY

Jacobsen4 examined population level data from68 cities in California USA, 47 towns inDenmark and 14 European countries, tocompare the amount of cycling and walking andthe injuries occurring in collisions with motorvehicles.• It was found across all the data sets thatmotorists are less likely to hit bicyclists andpedestrians when there are more peoplebicycling or walking.• So if cycling gets safer the more cyclists thereare on the road it is unlikely that the reason forthis is that cyclists are becoming more cautiouswhen their numbers are larger.• It appears that motorists adjust theirbehaviour in the presence of people cycling.There is then an urgent need for furtherexploration of the human factors controllingmotorist behaviour.• Therefore, not only are policies that increasethe numbers of people walking and cycling agood way to improve safety, but laws should berevised to reflect the premise that the number ofcollisions with vulnerable road users isdetermined largely by motorist behaviour.

AUSTRALIAN STUDY

Robinson5 used three data sets from Australia,

• 1985-86 - The mean per capita distancecycled in Western Australia was double that inNew South Wales and the risk of fatality 35%less• 1982 - 1989 - In Western Australia cyclingalmost doubled. During the same period, thenumber of cyclists admitted to hospital fell by48% and reported fatal and serious injurieswent down by 33%.

However• 1990’s - the amount of cycling in Australiawas greatly reduced following the passage ofhelmet laws. Pedestrian deaths and serious headinjuries (DSHI) in Victoria fell by 74% due toroad safety campaigns that ought also to havebenefited cyclists. But the cycle helmet lawintroduced during the same period caused cycleuse to fall by about 30% while DSHI for cyclistsfell by only 57%, much less than for pedestrians.Thus despite, or because of, the helmet law, therisk of injury per cyclist relative to pedestriansincreased as cycling numbers fell.

FACT SHEETSAFETY IN NUMBERS

CYCLING IN SWEDEN ANDWALKING IN CANADA

In Malmö, Sweden, Ekman6 compared cyclistvolumes against serious cycling crashes at 95intersections.

• The larger number of cyclists the lower thenumber of accidents

Leden study examined changes in numbers ofbicyclists and collisions between motorists andbicyclists in response to changes in physicalconfiguration at intersections between bicyclepaths and roadways in Gothenburg, Sweden7.• The total number of collisions increased withthe 0.4 power of the increasing use of theintersections by bicyclists. In other words theamount of accidents increased at a lower ratethan the increase in the number of cyclists,therefore each individual cyclist was safer.• Leden also examined police reported injuriesto people walking at some 300 signalizedintersections in Hamilton, Ontario, Canada8.The number of collisions increased with the0.32 to 0.67 power with increasing numbers ofpedestrians. That is, where there were greaternumbers of pedestrians, fewer pedestrianswere involved in crashes.

FOOTNOTES1 Smeed RJ. Some statistical aspects of road safety research. J R Stat Soc A19492 Adams J. Smeed’s law, seatbelts and the Emperor’s new clothes. In: EvansL, Schwing RC, editors. Human Behavior and Traffic Safety. New York (NY):Plenum; 19853 Knott JW. Road traffic accidents in New South Wales, 1881-1991. AustEcon Hist Rev 19944 Jacobsen PL. Safety in numbers: more walkers and bicyclists, saferwalking and bicycling. Injury Prevention, 2003;9:205-2095 Robinson DL. Safety in numbers in Australia: more walkers and bicyclists,safer walking and bicycling. Health Promotion Journal of Australia,2005;16:47-516 Ekman L. On the treatment of flow in traffic safety analysis—a non-parametric approach applied on vulnerable road users. Bulletin 136. Lund,Sweden: Institutionen för Trafikteknik, Lunds Tekniska Högskola, 19967 Leden L, Garder P, Pulkkinen U. An expert judgment model applied toestimating the safety effect of a bicycle facility. Accident Analysis &Prevention, 2000 Jul8 Leden L. Pedestrian risk decrease with pedestrian flow. A case study basedon data from signalised intersections in Hamilton, Ontario. AccidentAnalysis & Prevention, 2002;

PHOTO (COVER)http://www.flickr.com/photos/18844496@N00/2615536578/

(page 3) http://www.flickr.com/photos/61204891@N03/6161765133(below): Caroline Terrée / Seawall, Vancouver (Canada)http://www.flickr.com/photos/pacificninja/6204789980/

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