Russia - A.M. Best Company
Transcript of Russia - A.M. Best Company
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Nominal GDP USD bn 1527.47Population mil 144.0GDP Per Capita USD 10,608Real GDP Growth % 1.5Inflation Rate % 3.7
Literacy Rate % 99.7Urbanization % 74.2Dependency Ratio % 43.5Life Expectancy Years 71.0Median Age Years 39.6
Insurance Regulator
Premiums Written (Life) USD mil 5,683Premiums Written (Non-Life) USD mil 16,215Premiums Growth (2016 - 2017) % 4.4
RussiaBelarusChinaKazakhstanPolandUkraine
CRT-2CRT-5
Country Risk TierCRT-4CRT-5CRT-3CRT-4
Vital Statistics 2017
Insurance Statistics
Regional Comparison
The Central Bank of the Russian Federation
United Nations Estimates
Source: IMF, UN, Swiss Re, Axco and A.M. Best
Regional Summary: Central Asia•Economic prospects remain vulnerable due to sanctions
against Russia, the region’s largest economy, and potential changes in trade policy. Uncertainty surrounding the sanctions, and the potential ripple effects on other countries in the region could lead to slower economic growth, given Russia’s importance for trade.
•Political power is highly concentrated. The region suffers from high levels of corruption, a lack of transparency, and regular government interference in the judicial process. A lack of political succession plans in some countries could lead to social unrest and political uncertainty.
•Statesupportofthefinancialsysteminrecentyearshas been substantial and will likely remain necessary, to strengthen buffers and facilitate lending growth, Weak banking systems in several countries will continue to lead to higher government debt.
•Additional risks for the region include tightening of global financialconditions,commoditypriceandexchangevolatility, delays in implementing structural reforms, and the potential for trade restrictions.
Economic Risk Political Risk Financial System Risk
Country Risk Tier 1 (CRT-1) Very Low Level of Country Risk
Country Risk Tier 2 (CRT-2) Low Level of Country Risk
Country Risk Tier 3 (CRT-3) Moderate Level of Country Risk
Country Risk Tier 4 (CRT-4) High Level of Country Risk
Country Risk Tier 5 (CRT-5) Very High Level of Country Risk
RussiaCRT-4August 22, 2018Region: AsiaCountry Risk Criteria ProceduresGuide to Best’s Country Risk Tiers•TheCountryRiskTier(CRT)reflectsA.M.Best’s
assessment of three categories of risk: Economic, Political, and Financial System Risk.
•Russia, a CRT-4 country, has a moderate level of economicriskandhighlevelsofpoliticalandfinancialsystem risk. Russia’s plentiful natural resources and well-educated workforce provide potential for growth. However, internationaleconomicandfinancialsystemsanctionsandheightened political tensions will constrain growth over the near term. In 2017, the Russian economy returned to growth following two years of economic recession. Growth is expected to remain moderate, but below potential, over the near term.
•The majority of countries pictured are categorized as CRT-1, 2, or 3. Notable exceptions are the Eastern European countries Belarus and Ukraine.
BEST’S COUNTRY RISK REPORT
Curacao
Cayman Islands Anguilla
BritishVirginIslands
St. Maarten
Zimbabwe
Zambia
Yemen Vietnam
Somoa
Venezuela
Vanuatu
Uzbekistan
Uruguay
United States
UnitedKingdom
U.A.E.
Ukraine
Uganda
TurkmenistanTurkey
Tunisia
Trinidad & Tobago
Tonga
Togo
Thailand
Tanzania
Tajikistan
Syria
Switzerland
Sweden
Swaziland
Suriname
Sudan
Sri Lanka
Spain
South Africa
Somalia
Solomon Islands
Slovenia
Slovakia
Singapore
SierraLeone
Serbia
Senegal
Saudi Arabia
Sao Tome & Principe
San Marino
St Vincent & the Grenadines St Lucia
St Kitts & Nevis
Rwanda
Russia
Romania
Qatar
PuertoRico
Portugal
Poland
Philippines
Peru
Paraguay
PapuaNew Guinea
Panama
Palau
Pakistan
Oman
Norway
Nigeria
NigerNicaragua
New Zealand
Netherlands
Nepal
Namibia
Mozambique
Morocco
MongoliaRepublic of
Moldova
Mexico
Mauritius
Mauritania
Malta
Mali
Malaysia
Malawi
Madagascar
Macedonia
Luxembourg
Lithuania
Liechtenstein
Libya
Liberia
Lesotho
Lebanon
Latvia
Laos
Kyrgyzstan
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Kenya
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Jordan
Japan
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Italy
Israel
Ireland
Iraq Iran
India
Iceland
Hungary
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Haiti
Guyana
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Guatemala
Grenada
Greenland
Greece
Ghana
Germany
Georgia
Gambia
Gabon
FrenchGuiana
France
Finland
Fiji
Falkland Islands
CanaryIslands
Azores
Reunion
Sumatra
Borneo
Taiwan
Sakhalin
Kuril Is
lands
NewGuinea
Tierra Del Fuego
South Georgia
Ethiopia
Estonia
Eritrea
Equatorial Guinea
El Salvador
Egypt
Ecuador
East Timor
DominicanRepublic
Dominica
Dijbouti
Denmark
CzechRepublic
Cyprus
Cuba
Croatia
Cote d'Ivoire
Costa Rica
Congo
Dem. Republicof Congo
Comoros
Colombia
China
Chile
Chad
Central AfricaRepublic
Cape Verde
Canada
Cameroon
Cambodia
Burundi
Myanmar
BurkinaFaso
Bulgaria
Brunei
Brazil
Botswana
Bosnia &Herzegovina
Bolivia
Bhutan
Benin
Belize
Belgium
Belarus
Barbados
Bangladesh
Bahrain
Bahamas
Azerbaijan
Austria
Australia
Armenia
Argentina
Antigua & Barbuda
Angola
Andorra
Algeria
Albania
Afghanistan
Western Sahara(Occupied by Morocco)
Montenegro
Isle of Man
Jersey
Guernsey
Monaco
Gibraltar
Seychelles
Russia
Hong KongMacau
Russia
Indonesia
Guam
Northern Mariana Islands
Wake Island
Marshall Islands
Federated Statesof Micronesia
Nauru
Tuvalu
CoralSeaIslands
New Caledonia
Norfolk Island
French Polynesia
Pitcairn Islands
Kiribati
Tokelau
AmericanSamoa
CookIslands
Niue
Curacao
Cayman Islands Anguilla
BritishVirginIslands
St. Maarten
Zimbabwe
Zambia
Yemen Vietnam
Somoa
Venezuela
Vanuatu
Uzbekistan
Uruguay
United States
UnitedKingdom
U.A.E.
Ukraine
Uganda
TurkmenistanTurkey
Tunisia
Trinidad & Tobago
Tonga
Togo
Thailand
Tanzania
Tajikistan
Syria
Switzerland
Sweden
Swaziland
Suriname
Sudan
Sri Lanka
Spain
South Africa
Somalia
Solomon Islands
Slovenia
Slovakia
Singapore
SierraLeone
Serbia
Senegal
Saudi Arabia
Sao Tome & Principe
San Marino
St Vincent & the Grenadines St Lucia
St Kitts & Nevis
Rwanda
Russia
Romania
Qatar
PuertoRico
Portugal
Poland
Philippines
Peru
Paraguay
PapuaNew Guinea
Panama
Palau
Pakistan
Oman
Norway
Nigeria
NigerNicaragua
New Zealand
Netherlands
Nepal
Namibia
Mozambique
Morocco
MongoliaRepublic of
Moldova
Mexico
Mauritius
Mauritania
Malta
Mali
Malaysia
Malawi
Madagascar
Macedonia
Luxembourg
Lithuania
Liechtenstein
Libya
Liberia
Lesotho
Lebanon
Latvia
Laos
Kyrgyzstan
Kuwait
SouthKorea
NorthKorea
Kenya
Kazakhstan
Jordan
Japan
Jamaica
Italy
Israel
Ireland
Iraq Iran
India
Iceland
Hungary
Honduras
Haiti
Guyana
Guinea-Bissau Guinea
Guatemala
Grenada
Greenland
Greece
Ghana
Germany
Georgia
Gambia
Gabon
FrenchGuiana
France
Finland
Fiji
Falkland Islands
CanaryIslands
Azores
Reunion
Sumatra
Borneo
Taiwan
Sakhalin
Kuril Is
lands
NewGuinea
Tierra Del Fuego
South Georgia
Ethiopia
Estonia
Eritrea
Equatorial Guinea
El Salvador
Egypt
Ecuador
East Timor
DominicanRepublic
Dominica
Dijbouti
Denmark
CzechRepublic
Cyprus
Cuba
Croatia
Cote d'Ivoire
Costa Rica
Congo
Dem. Republicof Congo
Comoros
Colombia
China
Chile
Chad
Central AfricaRepublic
Cape Verde
Canada
Cameroon
Cambodia
Burundi
Myanmar
BurkinaFaso
Bulgaria
Brunei
Brazil
Botswana
Bosnia &Herzegovina
Bolivia
Bhutan
Benin
Belize
Belgium
Belarus
Barbados
Bangladesh
Bahrain
Bahamas
Azerbaijan
Austria
Australia
Armenia
Argentina
Antigua & Barbuda
Angola
Andorra
Algeria
Albania
Afghanistan
Western Sahara(Occupied by Morocco)
Montenegro
Isle of Man
Jersey
Guernsey
Monaco
Gibraltar
Seychelles
Russia
Hong KongMacau
Russia
Indonesia
Guam
Northern Mariana Islands
Wake Island
Marshall Islands
Federated Statesof Micronesia
Nauru
Tuvalu
CoralSeaIslands
New Caledonia
Norfolk Island
French Polynesia
Pitcairn Islands
Kiribati
Tokelau
AmericanSamoa
CookIslands
Niue
Economic Risk: Moderate•Russiaisasignificantcommoditiesexporter,whichleaves
the country exposed to shifts in global demand and pricing conditions. It is one of the world’s leading producers of natural gas and oil, as well as a top exporter of metals, including steel and aluminum.
•Russia faces a wide range of structural issues, including anagingdemographic,insufficientinfrastructure,andhighlevels of state control in the economy.
•The US Treasury Department expanded sanctions against Russia in June 2018, following allegations of interference in the 2016 US presidential election. The new sanctions could increase tensions, impact the state’s involvement in the economy, and create structural limitations that will remain a drag on growth.
•Despite some worsening headwinds to growth, higher oil prices,lowerinflation,andstrongdomesticdemandwillsupport growth in the near term.
Political Risk: High•In March 2018, Vladimir Putin won a second consecutive
term as president (four presidential terms in total). Putin’s political party, the pro-Kremlin United Russia Party, has a constitutional majority in parliament. Putin’s term runs for six years through 2024.
•Decision-making lies with a narrow group of ruling elites and advisers in the presidential administration. The congressional majority will likely be able to push policy changes that the Kremlin favors. The political system will likely see further centralization of power.
•The government is highly involved in economic activity, particularly in the energy sector. Continued state intervention in the private sector has led to opaque regulationsandaninefficientandcorruptlegalsystemthatsuffers from political interference.
•CorruptioninRussiaisendemicandremainsasignificantchallenge to conducting business there. The government haslaunchedahigh-profileanti-corruptioncampaign,butthe crackdown will likely serve the ruling party’s political agenda.
•The government continues to crack down on opposition political parties, limiting their effectiveness.
Financial System Risk: High•TheCentralBankofRussiabecametheultimatefinancialregulatorforallfinancialinstitutions,includingtheinsurance industry, in 2013. Operations for the Central Bank are carried out by its Financial Markets Service.
•Duetolowerlevelsofinflationandamodestlyimprovingeconomy, the Central Bank of Russia has been able to decrease its policy interest rate.
•Several large private banks failed in 2017, underscoring the vulnerability of Russia’s banking system. The IMF has noted excessive risk concentrations as an issue.
Economic Growth (%)
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Real GDP CPI Inflation
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook and A.M. Best
Political Risk SummaryScore 1 (best) to 5 (worst)
0
1
2
3
4
5International Transactions
Policy
Monetary Policy
Fiscal Policy
Business Environment
Labor FlexibilityGovernment Stability
Social Stability
Regional Stability
Legal System
RussiaWorld Average
Source: A.M. Best
Russia
GDP Per Capita and Population
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
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Russia Belarus China Kazakhstan Poland Ukraine
USD
Millions
GDP Per Capita Population
Source: IMF and A.M. Best
BEST’S COUNTRY RISK REPORT
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Page 2 of 2 August 22, 2018