Runway Safety: the surprising dominance of FOD and bird strikesI Mc C Pres To Swift Sept2011

INSIGHT SRIAll Rights Reserved © 2011, Iain McCreary and Insight SRI 1

Runway Safety:The surprising dominance of FOD and bird strikes

Iain McCreary12 September 2011

SWIFT ConferenceMontreal, CANADA

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Why me?

available online www.runway-safety.comUS $1,200; PDF

INSIGHT SRI

The hierarchy of runway safety events (per million flight ops.)

All Rights Reserved © 2011, Iain McCreary and Insight SRI 3

RUNWAY INCIDENTSper million operations

No. ofincidentsoccurring

No. ofaccidentscausing actual

damage

Averagedirect cost

per damage accident

(US$)

Averagedirect cost-all events

(US$)

Direct cost

(US$)

Incursion 14 0.021,567,28

3 1,901 26,763

Excursion 0.7 0.7 907,678 907,678 610,593

Bird (on runway) 65 4.1 359,033 22,741 1,485,075

FOD (on runway) 207 164 10,300 8,144 1,684,985

TOTALS 287 168 - - 3,807,415


security camera footageMarch 2007


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INSIGHT SRIAll Rights Reserved © 2011, Iain McCreary and Insight SRI

Airline PerspectiveNot the cause, but the effect

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INSIGHT SRI

Despite what their own numbers and reporting tell them, airlines have a hard time believing that FOD and bird strikes are worth as much as

a merger



The Airport PerspectiveVisual v. automated runway inspections


A typical runway inspectionFeb 2008, LAX 25R

Source: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dFFr50wWKOY

INSIGHT SRI

The ‘rules of thumb’ for FOD...


Visual/manual FOD inspections at Large Airports

Rule : 1 pcs of FOD on the runway every 2 months

INSIGHT SRI

FOD collected at Atlanta, airport wide (2008-09)(this pattern is typical for most large airports)


INSIGHT SRI

FOD collected at Atlanta plus 3 other US airports, airport wide (this pattern is typical for most large airports)



FOD retrieval by time of day at ATL, runway only (2008-09)

Scheduled daily inspections Majority of FOD

collected

INSIGHT SRI

YVR – Operational FOD finds for the North runway (n.b. This is a map! NOT a chart)


longitude

latit

ude

INSIGHT SRI

The ‘rules of thumb’ for FOD...


Automated runway scanning at Large Airports

Rule : 1 pc of FOD every 2 days on the runway

Visual/manual FOD inspections at Large Airports

Rule : 1 pcs of FOD on the runway every 2 months

INSIGHT SRI

Even the best visual inspections are “three nines” (99.9%) ineffective

1. Airports relying on visual detection find 30x to 40x less FOD than airports using automated scanning (1/30 = 3.33%)

2. For airports relying on visual inspections, only 2% to 3% of the debris found is collected during the morning runway inspections (97% - 98% found OUTSIDE scheduled inspections)

3. Therefore, the best-in-class visual runway inspections seem to find less than 3%*3% = 0.1% of debris present during the operational day

CONCLUSION? The FAA approved runway inspection standard is 99.9% INEFFECTIVE!

ICAO 4 per day requirements only slightly better


INSIGHT SRI

Iain McCrearyManaging Director, Insight SRI

No 5602020 Pennsylvania Ave NWWashington DC, 2006 USA

+1 520 205 [email protected]

All Rights Reserved © 2011, Iain McCreary and Insight SRI

Runway Safety: FOD, Birds, and the Case for Automated Scanning

for sale onlinewww.runway-safety.com

21

Runway Safety: the surprising dominance of FOD and bird strikesI Mc C Pres To Swift Sept2011

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