RTÉ/Behaviour & Attitudes European Election Exit PollA face-to-face Exit Poll was conducted among...
Transcript of RTÉ/Behaviour & Attitudes European Election Exit PollA face-to-face Exit Poll was conducted among...
J.5582
RTÉ/Behaviour & Attitudes European Election Exit Poll
May 23rd 2014
Prepared for:
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Introduction
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Introduction
● This report sets out the findings of an Exit Poll commissioned by RTÉ and carried out by Behaviour & Attitudes. The poll was conducted among a sample of 3,081 voters nationwide, interviewed immediately after they had voted in the Election on Friday, 23rd
May, 2014.
● The sample was spread throughout all three European constituencies and undertaken at 175 polling stations. Interviews were conducted face-to-face with randomly selected individuals – throughout the hours of polling from 7am to 10pm in accordance with the 1992 Electoral Act (no interviews took place within 100 yards of a polling station).
● The accuracy level is estimated to be plus or minus 1.7% at a national level, and plus or minus 3.4% at a constituency level. Extracts from the report may be quoted or published on condition that due acknowledgement is given to RTÉ and Behaviour & Attitudes.
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Research Methodology
● A face-to-face Exit Poll was conducted among voters immediately after leaving polling stations on European Election day, Friday, 23rd May, 2013.
● An effective sample of 3,081 voters was interviewed.
● The Poll was undertaken in all three European constituencies.
● 175 polling stations were sampled, distributed proportionate to population within each constituency:
No. of seats No. of Pollingstations
No. of interviews
Statistical margin of
error
Dublin 3 61 1070 ±3.06%
Midlands North West
4 56 970 ±3.21%
South 4 58 1041 ±3.09%
Total 11 175 3,081 ±1.8%
● Specific polling stations within constituency were selected randomly.
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Voter Selection
Selection of Respondents (Voters)
● In accordance with the 1992 Electoral Act, no interviews took place within 100 yards of a polling station.
● Interviewing was continuous throughout each time-period.
● In the event of refusal at contact, the interviewer noted gender, approximate age and social class, and sought to replace that person at the first available opportunity with a person sharing similar demographic characteristics.
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Note on Weighting
Two levels of weighting have been applied to this data to ensure accurate reflection of the electorate.
1. Regional Weighting
To correct for the regional imbalance in the sample design the constituency totals have been re-weighted to the known electorate size in each constituency as the table below shows:
Dublin Midlands-North-West
South
Electorate 799,975 1,175,437 1,205,260
% weighted 25.2 36.9 37.9
2. Demographic WeightingThis is a random probability sample survey and should reflect the actual profile of the turnout on the day. However, sampling bias can always occur and we have applied corrective demographic weights to minimise this effect. In practice, given the large sample size these weights only impact on first preference vote by no more than one percentage point in almost all cases. Nonetheless even marginal weighting in our view provides a more precise sample output.
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Weighting x Population
18+ Population Achieved Weighted
Gender % % %
Male 51 54 51
Female 49 46 49
Age % % %
18 – 24 12 5 7
25 – 34 22 13 18
35 – 49 29 32 30
50 – 64 21 31 26
65+ 16 19 19
Class % % %
AB 13 19 17
C1 28 30 30
C2 21 19 18
DE 31 24 27
F 7 7 8
The table below indicates the weights used.
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European Elections 2014:Dublin Constituency
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First Preference Vote: European Election: DublinBase: All Dublin Voters in European Parliament Elections
24
11
8
1
12
14
7
14
6
1
1
0
Lynn Boylan (Lynn Ní Bhaoigheallain), Sinn Féin
Nessa Childers, Independent
Emer Costello, Labour Party
Thomas Darcy, Direct Democracy Ireland
Mary Fitzpatrick, Fianna Fáil
Brian Hayes, Fine Gael
Paul Murphy, Stop the Water Tax/ Socialist Party
Eamon Ryan, Green Party
Brid Smith, People Before Profit Alliance
Jim Tallon, Independent
Raymond Patrick Whitehead, Direct Democracy Ireland
Damon Matthew Wise, Fís Nua
% First Preference
Vote
Q.1The candidates for election in the European Parliament Election are listed on this ballot paper. Please mark the ballot paper giving your order of preference as you have just voted.
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First Preference Vote: European Election: DublinBase: All Dublin Voters in European Parliament Elections
TotalGender Age Class
Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-49 50+ ABC1 C2DE
% % % % % % % % %
Lynn Boylan (Lynn NíBhaoigheallain), Sinn Féin
24 26 23 29 26 27 21 14 41
Nessa Childers, Independent 11 7 14 9 11 8 13 13 8
Emer Costello, Labour Party 8 7 9 2 8 7 9 8 8
Thomas Darcy, Direct Democracy Ireland
1 1 1 - 2 1 1 1 2
Mary Fitzpatrick, Fianna Fáil 12 13 11 13 9 8 17 14 10
Brian Hayes, Fine Gael 14 16 12 11 16 14 14 17 9
Paul Murphy, Stop the Water Tax/ Socialist Party
7 7 8 7 9 9 6 8 7
Eamon Ryan, Green Party 14 14 13 15 15 16 11 19 5
Brid Smith, People Before Profit Alliance
6 5 8 9 3 8 6 5 9
Jim Tallon, Independent 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 1 1
Raymond Patrick Whitehead, Direct Democracy Ireland
1 1 0 2 - 1 1 1 1
Damon Matthew Wise, Fís Nua 0 0 - - - - 0 0 -
Q.1The candidates for election in the European Parliament Election are listed on this ballot paper. Please mark the ballot paper giving your order of preference as you have just voted.
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First Preference Vote: European Election: DublinBase: All Dublin Voters in European Parliament Elections
Region
TotalCity
NorthCity
South
Dun Laoghaire/Rathdown
FingalSouth Dublin
% % % % % %
Lynn Boylan (Lynn Ní Bhaoigheallain), Sinn Féin 24 32 21 14 24 27
Nessa Childers, Independent 11 8 10 15 10 13
Emer Costello, Labour Party 8 8 11 9 6 6
Thomas Darcy, Direct Democracy Ireland 1 3 0 - - 2
Mary Fitzpatrick, Fianna Fáil 12 11 9 13 20 8
Brian Hayes, Fine Gael 14 9 15 16 15 16
Paul Murphy, Stop the Water Tax/ Socialist Party 7 14 4 4 8 6
Eamon Ryan, Green Party 14 8 18 21 12 12
Brid Smith, People Before Profit Alliance 6 5 11 4 3 8
Jim Tallon, Independent 1 1 1 1 2 0
Raymond Patrick Whitehead, Direct Democracy Ireland 1 1 - 2 1 1
Damon Matthew Wise, Fís Nua 0 0 - - - -
Q.1The candidates for election in the European Parliament Election are listed on this ballot paper. Please mark the ballot paper giving your order of preference as you have just voted.
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First Preference Vote: European Election: DublinBase: All Dublin Voters in European Parliament Elections
Local Election Party Support – First Preference
Total Fine Gael LabourFianna
FáilSinn Féin
Green Party
All Indep./ Others
Soc. P./PBPA
% % % % % % % %
Lynn Boylan (Lynn Ní Bhaoigheallain), Sinn Féin
24 1 3 4 86 3 14 12
Nessa Childers, Independent 11 11 9 5 2 9 20 7
Emer Costello, Labour Party 8 10 39 3 0 3 4 1
Thomas Darcy, Direct Democracy Ireland 1 - - - 1 - 3 2
Mary Fitzpatrick, Fianna Fáil 12 7 8 64 1 5 7 5
Brian Hayes, Fine Gael 14 58 12 5 2 7 6 1
Paul Murphy, Stop the Water Tax/ Socialist Party
7 1 4 3 3 4 18 38
Eamon Ryan, Green Party 14 10 23 9 2 67 10 3
Brid Smith, People Before Profit Alliance 6 2 3 4 2 1 14 30
Jim Tallon, Independent 1 1 - 3 - - 2 -
Raymond Patrick Whitehead, Direct Democracy Ireland
1 - - - - - 2 1
Damon Matthew Wise, Fís Nua 0 - - - - - 0 -
Q.1The candidates for election in the European Parliament Election are listed on this ballot paper. Please mark the ballot paper giving your order of preference as you have just voted.
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European Election Second Preference Support Levels Versus European Election 1st Preference Support: Dublin Base: All Dublin Voters in EP Elections
Second Preference
Total
European Election – 1st Preference
Lynn Boylan
Sinn Féin
NessaChilders Indep-endent
EmerCostello Labour Party
Thomas DarcyDirect
Democ-racy
Ireland
Mary Fitzpatrick Fianna
Fáil
Brian Hayes
Fine Gael
Paul Murphy Stop the Water Tax/
Socialist Party
EamonRyan Green Party
BridSmith People Before Profit
Alliance
Jim Tallon
Independent
Raymond Patrick
WhiteheadDirect
Democracy
Ireland
Damon Matthew
Wise Fís Nua
% % % % % % % % % % % % %
Lynn Boylan (Lynn NíBhaoigheallain), Sinn Féin
6 - 9 1 23 3 4 23 6 14 9 - -
Nessa Childers, Independent
12 11 - 15 19 14 12 11 18 10 8 10 100
Emer Costello, Labour Party
9 5 6 - - 7 24 1 21 4 10 - -
Thomas Darcy, Direct Democracy Ireland
1 2 - - - 1 1 1 1 4 - 35 -
Mary Fitzpatrick, FiannaFáil
5 4 10 9 - - 8 - 6 - - 12 -
Brian Hayes, Fine Gael 9 2 15 23 - 14 - 2 22 6 8 - -
Paul Murphy, Stop the Water Tax/ Socialist Party
11 23 11 4 24 7 1 - 5 29 - 12 -
Eamon Ryan, Green Party
12 6 14 25 - 19 27 5 - 8 7 - -
Brid Smith, People Before Profit Alliance
10 21 8 1 8 1 1 42 4 - - 9 -
Jim Tallon, Independent 2 2 4 - - 4 2 1 1 3 - 11 -
Raymond Patrick Whitehead, Direct Democracy Ireland
1 0 1 1 26 - - - - 3 23 - -
Damon Matthew Wise, Fís Nua
0 1 - - - - - - 2 - - - -
None/no second pref 21 22 22 21 - 30 20 14 15 19 36 11 -
Q.1The candidates for election in the European Parliament Election are listed on this ballot paper. Please mark the ballot paper giving your order of preference as you have just voted.
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Reasons for First Preference European Election Candidate Support: Dublin Base: All Dublin Voters in EP Elections
Main Influencing Candidate Factors
Total
European Election – 1st Preference
Lynn Boylan
Sinn Féin
NessaChilders Indep-endent
EmerCostello Labour Party
Thomas DarcyDirect
Democ-racy
Ireland
Mary Fitzpatrick Fianna
Fáil
Brian Hayes
Fine Gael
Paul Murphy Stop the Water Tax/
Socialist Party
EamonRyan Green Party
BridSmith People Before Profit
Alliance
Jim Tallon
Independent
Raymond Patrick
WhiteheadDirect
Democracy
Ireland
Damon Matthew
Wise Fís Nua
% % % % % % % % % % % % %
Personality/ Qualities 30 20 51 27 19 33 32 16 39 28 16 12 -
Party 33 42 14 49 26 44 41 18 20 16 25 36 -
Policies 30 31 27 22 38 16 17 60 35 39 43 52 100
Party Leader 3 2 1 1 - 1 5 3 2 9 - - -
None 5 5 8 1 8 6 4 3 5 8 16 - -
Don't know 0 1 - - 8 - - 1 - - - - -
Q.2Please tell me which one of the following was the main reason you decided to give your first preference vote to that candidate in the European Parliament elections?
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Reasons for First Preference Vote in European Election Party Support: DublinBase: All Dublin Voters in European Parliament Elections
Main Influencing Candidate Factors
Total
European Election Party Support
Fine Gael Labour Fianna FáilSinn Féin
Green Party
All Indep./ Others
Soc. P./PBPA
% % % % % % %
Personality/ Qualities 30 32 27 33 20 39 32 21
Party 33 41 49 44 42 20 17 17
Policies 30 17 22 16 31 35 41 51
Party Leader 3 5 1 1 2 2 3 5
None 5 4 1 6 5 5 7 5
Don't know 0 - - - 1 - 1 1
Q.2Please tell me which one of the following was the main reason you decided to give your first preference vote to that candidate in the European Parliament elections?
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Local Election Versus European Election First Preference: DublinBase: All Dublin Voters in European Parliament Elections
Local Election First Preference
Vote
European Election Party Support
TotalFine Gael
LabourFianna
FáilSinn Féin
Green Party
All Indep./ Others
Soc. P./PBPA
% % % % % % % %
Fine Gael 16 66 20 9 1 12 8 3
Labour 12 10 57 8 2 21 7 6
Fianna Fáil 12 5 4 62 2 8 6 6
Sinn Féin 21 3 1 1 75 3 7 8
Green Party 6 3 3 3 1 31 3 2
All Independents/ Others
32 13 15 17 18 23 68 73
Socialist Party/ People Before ProfitAlliance
9 1 1 3 4 2 24 42
Don’t know 1 - - - 1 1 1 1
Q.5 To which party or independent candidate did you just give your first preference vote in the local elections?
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Local Election Versus 2011 General Election: DublinBase: All Dublin Voters in EP Elections
Q.5Q.10
To which party or independent candidate did you just give your first preference vote in the European elections? To which party or independent candidate did you give your first preference vote in the 2011 General Election?
Local Election First Preference
Party Vote Total
General Election 2011
Fine Gael
LabourFianna
FáilSinn Féin
Green Party
All Indep./ Others
Soc. P./PBPA
Don’t know
Did not vote
% % % % % % % % % %
Fine Gael 16 39 7 5 - 3 4 - 18 16
Labour 12 9 27 10 1 13 3 3 13 10
Fianna Fáil 12 9 3 54 2 2 6 - 8 9
Sinn Féin 21 9 21 13 82 5 7 4 14 26
Green Party 6 5 7 - 1 53 6 3 1 9
All Independents/ Others
32 28 35 17 14 21 75 90 43 29
Socialist Party/ People Before ProfitAlliance
9 4 12 6 4 - 30 64 8 7
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Type of Representatives Wanted in European Election – Candidate Support Base: All Dublin Voters in European Parliament Elections
Q.3In the European Elections, in the case of the statements below, please tell me whether each one was important in deciding who to vote for, or not?
Factors ofImportance
Total
European Election – 1st Preference
Lynn Boylan
Sinn Féin
NessaChilders Indep-endent
EmerCostello Labour Party
Thomas DarcyDirect
Democ-racy
Ireland
Mary Fitzpatrick Fianna
Fáil
Brian Hayes
Fine Gael
Paul Murphy Stop the Water Tax/
Socialist Party
EamonRyan Green Party
BridSmith People Before Profit
Alliance
Jim Tallon
Independent
Raymond Patrick
Whitehead Direct Democra
cy Ireland
Damon Matthew
Wise Fís Nua
% % % % % % % % % % % % %
I wanted a strong voice to stand up for Ireland/this constituency in Europe
85 87 90 82 92 81 85 88 80 92 92 80 -
I wanted someone with the experience to represent Ireland/this constituency in Europe
72 63 74 82 23 69 89 67 84 63 33 47 100
I wanted to protest against the Government.
48 78 48 22 93 43 13 71 25 66 75 79 100
I wanted to protest against the EU and its policies towards Ireland
36 59 38 15 64 25 15 50 17 51 51 57 -
None 2 87 90 82 92 81 85 88 80 92 92 80 -
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Type of Representatives Wanted in European Election – European Election Party SupportBase: All Dublin Voters in European Parliament Elections
Q.3In the European Elections, in the case of the statements below, please tell me whether each one was important in deciding who to vote for, or not?
Factors of Importance Total
European Election Party Support
Fine Gael Labour Fianna FáilSinn Féin
Green Party
All Indep./ Others
Soc. P./PBPA
% % % % % % %
I wanted a strong voice to stand up for Ireland/this constituency in Europe
85 85 82 81 87 80 90 90
I wanted someone with the experience to represent Ireland/this constituency in Europe
72 89 82 69 63 84 65 65
I wanted to protest against the Government.
48 13 22 43 78 25 62 69
I wanted to protest against the EU and its policies towards Ireland
36 15 15 25 59 17 46 50
None 2 3 3 4 2 3 1 1
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Factors of Importance in European Election – European Election Candidate Support Base: All Dublin Voters in European Parliament Elections
Q.4In the European Elections, in the case of the statements below, please tell me whether each one was important in deciding who to vote for, or not?
Factors of Importance
Total
European Election – 1st Preference
Lynn Boylan
Sinn Féin
NessaChilders Indep-endent
EmerCostello Labour Party
Thomas DarcyDirect
Democ-racy
Ireland
Mary Fitzpatrick Fianna
Fáil
Brian Hayes
Fine Gael
Paul Murphy Stop the Water Tax/
Socialist Party
EamonRyan Green Party
BridSmith People Before Profit
Alliance
Jim Tallon
Independent
Raymond Patrick
WhiteheadDirect
Democracy
Ireland
Damon Matthew
Wise Fís Nua
% % % % % % % % % % % % %
The handling of controversies surrounding the Gardaí, and the resignation of Alan Shatter as Minister for Justice.
30 42 32 21 36 31 15 32 21 35 42 12 -
The announcement of measures to support First Time House Buyers
20 32 19 18 - 24 13 14 11 23 11 10 -
The arrest and questioning of Gerry Adams
20 32 23 11 27 18 15 10 17 25 18 - -
The exit of Ireland from the Troika Bailout
33 38 31 27 11 28 41 31 27 33 33 21 -
The forthcoming introduction of water charges
55 83 59 25 82 52 21 80 27 84 69 42 -
Reduced unemployment figures
44 61 34 45 42 36 45 34 32 49 51 25 -
The removal of some discretionary medical cards
55 80 61 35 82 55 24 72 29 76 85 22 100
The introduction of a Property Tax
51 79 56 24 57 43 22 73 27 70 61 31 100
None 17 5 12 25 - 26 25 8 36 5 7 43 -
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Factors of Importance in European Election – European Election Party SupportBase: All Dublin Voters in European Parliament Elections
Q.4In the European Elections, in the case of the statements below, please tell me whether each one was important in deciding who to vote for, or not?
Factors of Importance Total
European Election Party Support
Fine Gael Labour Fianna FáilSinn Féin
Green Party
All Indep./ Others
Soc. P./PBPA
% % % % % % %
The handling of controversies surrounding the Gardaí, and the resignation of Alan Shatter as Minister for Justice.
30 15 21 31 42 21 32 33
The announcement of measures to support First Time House Buyers
20 13 18 24 32 11 17 18
The arrest and questioning of Gerry Adams
20 15 11 18 32 17 19 17
The exit of Ireland from the Troika Bailout
33 41 27 28 38 27 31 32
The forthcoming introduction of water charges
55 21 25 52 83 27 71 82
Reduced unemployment figures
44 45 45 36 61 32 38 40
The removal of some discretionary medical cards
55 24 35 55 80 29 68 74
The introduction of a Property Tax
51 22 24 43 79 27 63 72
None 17 25 25 26 5 36 10 7
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Satisfaction with Government – European Election Candidate SupportBase: All Dublin Voters in European Parliament Elections
Q.11 Overall, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country?
Satisfaction with
GovernmentTotal
European Election – 1st Preference
Lynn Boylan
Sinn Féin
NessaChilders Indep-endent
EmerCostello Labour Party
Thomas DarcyDirect
Democ-racy
Ireland
Mary Fitzpatrick Fianna
Fáil
Brian Hayes
Fine Gael
Paul Murphy Stop the Water Tax/
Socialist Party
EamonRyan Green Party
BridSmith People Before Profit
Alliance
Jim Tallon
Independent
Raymond Patrick
WhiteheadDirect
Democracy
Ireland
Damon Matthew
Wise Fís Nua
% % % % % % % % % % % % %
Satisfied with the way the government is running the country
26 5 17 38 7 20 69 7 44 9 17 15 -
Dissatisfied with the way the government is running the country
70 92 78 53 93 77 27 93 49 90 83 85 100
Don’t know 4 3 5 9 - 4 5 - 6 1 - - -
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Satisfaction with Government – European Election Party SupportBase: All Dublin Voters in EP Elections
Q.11 Overall, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country?
Satisfaction with
GovernmentTotal
European Election Party Support
Fine Gael Labour Fianna FáilSinn Féin
Green Party
All Indep./ Others
Soc. P./PBPA
% % % % % % % %
Satisfied with the way the government is running the country
26 69 38 20 5 44 12 8
Dissatisfied with the way the government is running the country
70 27 53 77 92 49 86 91
Don’t know 4 5 9 4 3 6 2 1
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Economic Outlook – European Election Candidate SupportBase: All Dublin Voters in European Parliament Elections
Q.12Thinking about the economy in Ireland in the past 12 months, would you say that it has been getting better, getting worse, or staying the same?
Economic Outlook Total
European Election – 1st Preference
Lynn Boylan
Sinn Féin
NessaChilders Indep-endent
EmerCostello Labour Party
Thomas DarcyDirect
Democ-racy
Ireland
Mary Fitzpatrick Fianna
Fáil
Brian Hayes
Fine Gael
Paul Murphy Stop the Water Tax/
Socialist Party
EamonRyan Green Party
BridSmith People Before Profit
Alliance
Jim Tallon
Independent
Raymond Patrick
WhiteheadDirect
Democracy
Ireland
Damon Matthew
Wise Fís Nua
% % % % % % % % % % % % %
The economy in Ireland in the past 12 months has been getting better
44 22 40 63 6 43 72 28 69 22 32 70 -
The economy in Ireland in the past 12 months has stayed the same
30 31 34 26 42 33 21 47 21 31 18 30 -
The economy in Ireland in the past 12 months has been getting worse
26 46 26 11 52 23 7 24 10 47 50 - 100
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Economic Outlook – European Election Party SupportBase: All Dublin Voters in European Parliament Elections
Q.12Thinking about the economy in Ireland in the past 12 months, would you say that it has been getting better, getting worse, or staying the same?
View of Economy Total
European Election Party Support
Fine Gael Labour Fianna FáilSinn Féin
Green Party
All Indep./ Others
Soc. P./PBPA
% % % % % % % %
The economy in Ireland in the past 12 months has been getting better
44 72 63 43 22 69 32 25
The economy in Ireland in the past 12 months has stayed the same
30 21 26 33 31 21 36 40
The economy in Ireland in the past 12 months has been getting worse
26 7 11 23 46 10 32 35
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Household Financial Situation – European Election Candidate SupportBase: All Dublin Voters in European Parliament Elections
Q.13Thinking about the financial situation of your household in the past 12 months, would you say that it has been getting better, getting worse, or staying the same?
Household Financial
SituationTotal
European Election – 1st Preference
Lynn Boylan
Sinn Féin
NessaChilders Indep-endent
EmerCostello Labour Party
Thomas DarcyDirect
Democ-racy
Ireland
Mary Fitzpatrick Fianna
Fáil
Brian Hayes
Fine Gael
Paul Murphy Stop the Water Tax/
Socialist Party
EamonRyan Green Party
BridSmith People Before Profit
Alliance
Jim Tallon
Independent
Raymond Patrick
Whitehead Direct Democra
cy Ireland
Damon Matthew
Wise Fís Nua
% % % % % % % % % % % % %
The financial situation of your household in the past 12 months has been getting better
13 4 11 13 - 11 25 10 26 4 16 15 -
The financial situation of your household in the past 12 months has stayed the same
41 33 44 55 23 40 47 43 41 38 32 64 -
The financial situation of your household in the past 12 months has been getting worse
46 62 45 32 77 49 28 48 33 59 52 21 100
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Household Financial Situation – European Election Party SupportBase: All Dublin Voters in European Parliament Elections
Q.13Thinking about the financial situation of your household in the past 12 months, would you say that it has been getting better, getting worse, or staying the same?
Household Financial
SituationTotal
European Election Party Support
Fine Gael Labour Fianna FáilSinn Féin
Green Party
All Indep./ Others
Soc. P./PBPA
% % % % % % %
The financial situation of your household in the past 12 months has been getting better
13 25 13 11 4 26 9 7
The financial situation of your household in the past 12 months has stayed the same
41 47 55 40 33 41 41 40
The financial situation of your household in the past 12 months has been getting worse
46 28 32 49 62 33 50 53
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Dublin ConstituencyInterpretation & Analysis
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Interpretation & Analysis
Reduced to just a three seat constituency since 2009, Dublin was always going to be the most hard-fought of all three Euro constituencies.
Indeed, in the Behaviour & Attitudes/Sunday Times pre-election Opinion Poll conducted in the weeks leading up to the election, a quarter of all potential voters in the constituency remained undecided as to how they would cast their vote on election day. At that stage, we noted in our commentary that the undecided bloc was heavily skewed towards potential female voters, and that it was this group which might well have the final say on the ultimate seat tally.
That poll indicated a first preference support level for Sinn Féin’s Lynn Boylan of 19%, followed by Brian Hayes of Fine Gael on 16%, with both of these candidates likely to be elected, with a subsequent dogfight for the final seat amongst any one of five other contenders.
Based upon our exit poll, Lynn Boylan of Sinn Féin is set to be returned as Dublin Euro MEP as early as the first count, and will most certainly top the poll in the capital.
Boylan has performed well across all age groups, amongst males and females equally, and peaks at 41% of all first preferences cast by C2DE, blue collar workers.
As many as three candidates then remain in the hunt for the final two seats – Eamon Ryan of the Green Party, Brian Hayes of Fine Gael, and Mary Fitzpatrick of Fianna Fáil.
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Interpretation & Analysis
Ryan’s appeal is across the board with regard to gender and age groupings, and he actually leads the field amongst white collar and professional workers. Brian Hayes, at 14% support in the exit poll, is neck and neck with Ryan, although the Fine Gael candidate will be disappointed that he has not managed to match his pre-election poll support levels on the day.
Fianna Fáil seemed to have chosen well in selecting Mary Fitzpatrick as their candidate in Dublin, given her perceived reputation as something of an anti-Fianna Fáil establishment agitator during the reign of Bertie Ahern in her own constituency of Dublin Central. However, she looks set to fall in late count eliminations.
Labour performed poorly in the initial counts and Costello did not get much of a lift from harder left eliminations, exiting relatively early. Transfers were, of course, always set to decide the final two seats.
Subsequently, Ryan pulled ahead of the pack slightly, benefiting from transfers from Murphy and later again, on the elimination of Fitzpatrick. Our exit poll deemed Ryan elected without reaching the quota and it all remaining too close to call between Childers and Hayes, but the latter perhaps edging it by a hair’s breadth. With a margin this tight, eighth count transfers in a poll - even one this large and broadly based - make it perhaps too close to call. The battle for the final seat is likely to be nail-biting.
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European Elections 2014:Midlands North West Constituency
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First Preference Vote: European Election: Midlands North WestBase: All Midlands North West Voters in European Parliament Elections
10
13
2
1
0
20
11
1
11
7
4
16
4
0
Thomas Byrne, Fianna Fáil
Matt Carthy, Sinn Féin
Mark Dearey, Green Party
T.J. Fay, Independent
Mark Fitzsimons, Independent
Luke ‘Ming’ Flanagan, Independent
Pat The Cope Gallagher, Fianna Fáil
Ben Gilroy, Direct Democracy Ireland
Marian Harkin, Independent
Jim Higgins, Fine Gael
Lorraine Higgins, Labour Party
Mairead McGuinness, Fine Gael
Ronan Mullan, Independent
Cordelia Níc Fhearraigh, Fís Nua
% First Preference
Vote
Q.1The candidates for election in the European Parliament Election are listed on this ballot paper. Please mark the ballot paper giving your order of preference as you have just voted.
33
First Preference Vote: European Election: Midlands North WestBase: All Midlands North West Voters in European Parliament Elections
TotalGender Age Class
Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-49 50+ ABC1 C2DE F
% % % % % % % % % %
Thomas Byrne, Fianna Fáil 10 10 9 12 9 8 11 11 9 9
Matt Carthy, Sinn Féin 13 15 11 14 19 9 12 9 17 8
Mark Dearey, Green Party 2 2 2 - 3 3 1 3 1 -
T.J. Fay, Independent 1 1 1 - - 2 1 1 1 1
Mark Fitzsimons, Independent 0 - 1 - - 0 0 - 1 -
Luke ‘Ming’ Flanagan, Independent
20 20 20 33 23 21 15 18 23 14
Pat The Cope Gallagher, FiannaFáil
11 11 11 13 7 10 12 10 10 15
Ben Gilroy, Direct Democracy Ireland
1 1 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 1
Marian Harkin, Independent 11 9 14 9 11 12 11 13 10 12
Jim Higgins, Fine Gael 7 8 5 3 6 6 8 6 6 11
Lorraine Higgins, Labour Party 4 3 5 1 3 5 4 4 5 -
Mairead McGuinness, Fine Gael 16 15 17 11 12 17 18 19 11 26
Ronan Mullan, Independent 4 5 3 3 4 5 4 4 5 3
Cordelia Níc Fhearraigh, Fís Nua
0 0 1 - 1 1 0 0 1 -
Q.1The candidates for election in the European Parliament Election are listed on this ballot paper. Please mark the ballot paper giving your order of preference as you have just voted.
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First Preference Vote: European Election: Midlands North WestBase: All Midlands North West Voters in European Parliament Elections
Region
TotalCavan, Donegal, Leitrim, Louth,
Monaghan
Galway, Mayo, Roscommon,
Sligo
Kildare, Laois,Longford, Meath,
Offaly, Westmeath
% % % %
Thomas Byrne, Fianna Fáil 10 6 4 16
Matt Carthy, Sinn Féin 13 18 8 13
Mark Dearey, Green Party 2 3 2 1
T.J. Fay, Independent 1 1 1 1
Mark Fitzsimons, Independent 0 - 1 0
Luke ‘Ming’ Flanagan, Independent 20 12 26 19
Pat The Cope Gallagher, Fianna Fáil 11 25 8 5
Ben Gilroy, Direct Democracy Ireland 1 1 0 1
Marian Harkin, Independent 11 8 16 9
Jim Higgins, Fine Gael 7 2 14 3
Lorraine Higgins, Labour Party 4 3 3 5
Mairead McGuinness, Fine Gael 16 15 11 20
Ronan Mullan, Independent 4 5 4 4
Cordelia Níc Fhearraigh, Fís Nua 0 - 0 1
Don’t know - - - -
Q.1The candidates for election in the European Parliament Election are listed on this ballot paper. Please mark the ballot paper giving your order of preference as you have just voted.
35
First Preference Vote: European Election: Midlands North WestBase: All Midlands North West Voters in European Parliament Elections
Local Election Party Support – First Preference
Total Fine Gael LabourFianna
FáilSinn Féin
Green Party
All Indep./ Others
Soc. P./PBPA
% % % % % % % %
Thomas Byrne, Fianna Fáil 10 2 - 28 3 7 5 -
Matt Carthy, Sinn Féin 13 2 3 4 65 - 5 15
Mark Dearey, Green Party 2 1 - 0 1 66 1 11
T.J. Fay, Independent 1 - - 0 - - 3 -
Mark Fitzsimons, Independent 0 - - - 1 - 1 12
Luke ‘Ming’ Flanagan, Independent 20 11 21 14 15 5 36 28
Pat The Cope Gallagher, Fianna Fáil 11 1 8 32 4 - 4 -
Ben Gilroy, Direct Democracy Ireland 1 - 2 - - - 3 -
Marian Harkin, Independent 11 9 14 7 5 4 21 -
Jim Higgins, Fine Gael 7 23 - 1 2 - 2 -
Lorraine Higgins, Labour Party 4 2 38 2 2 7 4 22
Mairead McGuinness, Fine Gael 16 45 11 8 2 - 8 11
Ronan Mullan, Independent 4 5 2 3 1 5 7 -
Cordelia Níc Fhearraigh, Fís Nua - - - - - - - -
Q.1The candidates for election in the European Parliament Election are listed on this ballot paper. Please mark the ballot paper giving your order of preference as you have just voted.
36
European Election Second Preference Support Levels Versus European Election 1st Preference Support: Midlands North WestBase: All Midlands North West Voters in European Parliament Elections
Second Preference
Total
European Election – 1st Preference
Thomas Byrne, Fianna
Fáil
Matt Carthy,
Sinn Féin
Mark Dearey, Green Party
T.J. Fay, Indepen
dent
Mark Fitzsimo
ns, Indepen
dent
Luke ‘Ming’
Flanagan,
Independent
Pat The Cope
Gallagher,
FiannaFáil
Ben Gilroy, Direct
Democracy
Ireland
Marian Harkin, Indepen
dent
Jim Higgins,
Fine Gael
Lorraine Higgins, Labour Party
Mairead McGuinn
ess, Fine Gael
Ronan Mullan, Indepen
dent
Cordelia Níc
Fhearraigh, Fís Nua
% % % % % % % % % % % % % % %Thomas Byrne, Fianna Fáil
9 - 8 5 - - 3 53 8 5 - 2 3 8 -
Matt Carthy, Sinn Féin
5 4 - - - - 16 6 11 4 1 4 1 3 -
Mark Dearey, Green Party
1 2 1 - - - 1 - - 1 - 5 1 - -
T.J. Fay, Independent 1 - 1 - - 33 0 1 - - - - - 2 34
Mark Fitzsimons, Independent
2 1 1 5 37 - 2 - 12 2 3 - 1 5 -
Luke ‘Ming’ Flanagan, Independent
10 9 32 17 28 - - 9 12 18 3 3 7 10 -
Pat The Cope Gallagher, Fianna Fáil
8 50 8 - - - 6 - - 5 - 3 3 5 -
Ben Gilroy, Direct Democracy Ireland
1 2 1 - - - 2 - - 1 - 3 - - -
Marian Harkin, Independent
12 10 6 17 27 - 20 4 17 - 12 15 14 21 21
Jim Higgins, Fine Gael
8 1 1 5 - - 2 2 - 7 - 2 41 2 -
Lorraine Higgins, Labour Party
4 2 1 21 - - 4 2 - 4 5 - 5 7 -
Mairead McGuinness, Fine Gael
12 3 2 15 - - 8 5 14 25 59 28 - 17 21
Ronan Mullan, Independent
4 1 4 - - - 9 1 - 6 3 - 6 - 23
Cordelia Níc Fhearraigh, Fís Nua
1 - 2 5 - - 1 - - - - 7 1 - -
None/no second pref 9 - 8 5 - - 3 53 8 5 - 2 3 8 -
Q.1The candidates for election in the European Parliament Election are listed on this ballot paper. Please mark the ballot paper giving your order of preference as you have just voted.
37
Reasons for First Preference European Election Candidate Support: Midlands North WestBase: All Midlands North West Voters in European Parliament Elections
Main Influencing Candidate Factors
Total
European Election – 1st Preference
Thomas Byrne, Fianna
Fáil
Matt Carthy,
Sinn Féin
Mark Dearey, Green Party
T.J. Fay, Indepen
dent
Mark Fitzsimo
ns, Indepen
dent
Luke ‘Ming’
Flanagan,
Independent
Pat The Cope
Gallagher,
FiannaFáil
Ben Gilroy, Direct
Democracy
Ireland
Marian Harkin, Indepen
dent
Jim Higgins,
Fine Gael
Lorraine Higgins, Labour Party
MaireadMcGuinn
ess, Fine Gael
Ronan Mullan, Indepen
dent
Cordelia Níc
Fhearraigh, Fís Nua
% % % % % % % % % % % % % % %
Personality/ Qualities
40 24 28 30 29 67 52 34 47 52 36 49 41 52 -
Party 29 51 41 30 - - 9 45 36 9 43 38 35 13 21
Policies 22 14 22 35 53 33 32 16 - 24 18 9 14 23 79
Party Leader 2 5 4 - - - 1 - - 2 1 - 3 - -
None 5 3 5 - 18 - 4 3 17 11 3 4 4 8 -
Don't know 2 2 - 5 - - 3 3 - 3 - - 3 4 -
Q.2Please tell me which one of the following was the main reason you decided to give your first preference vote to that candidate in the European Parliament elections?
38
Reasons for First Preference Vote in European Election Party Support: Midlands North WestBase: All Midlands North West Voters in European Parliament Elections
Main Influencing Candidate Factors
Total
European Election Party Support
Fine Gael Labour Fianna FáilSinn Féin
Green Party
All Indep./ Others
Soc. P./PBPA
% % % % % % % %
Personality/ Qualities 40 40 49 29 28 30 51 -
Party 29 37 38 48 41 30 10 -
Policies 22 15 9 15 22 35 29 -
Party Leader 2 2 - 3 4 - 1 -
None 5 4 4 3 5 - 7 -
Don't know 2 2 - 2 - 5 3 -
Q.2Please tell me which one of the following was the main reason you decided to give your first preference vote to that candidate in the European Parliament elections?
39
Local Election Versus European Election First Preference: Midlands North WestBase: All Midlands North West Voters in European Parliament Elections
Local Election FirstPreference Vote
European Election Party Support
Total Fine Gael LabourFianna
FáilSinn Féin
Green Party
All Indep./ Others
Soc. P./PBPA
% % % % % % % %
Fine Gael 24 73 10 4 3 10 16 73
Labour 4 2 39 2 1 - 4 2
Fianna Fáil 26 10 14 76 9 5 17 10
Sinn Féin 15 3 7 5 74 5 8 3
Green Party 2 - 3 1 - 65 1 -
All Independents/ Others
29 13 27 12 12 16 54 13
Socialist Party/ People Before Profit Alliance
1 0 5 - 1 5 1 0
Q.5 To which party or independent candidate did you just give your first preference vote in the local elections?
40
Local Election Versus 2011 General Election: Midlands North WestBase: All Midlands North West Voters in EP Elections
Q.5Q.10
To which party or independent candidate did you just give your first preference vote in the European elections? To which party or independent candidate did you give your first preference vote in the 2011 General Election?
Local Election First Preference
Party Vote Total
General Election 2011
Fine Gael
LabourFianna
FáilSinn Féin
Green Party
All Indep./ Others
Soc. P./PBPA
Don’t know
Did not vote
% % % % % % % %
Fine Gael 24 56 12 5 4 - 1 - 16 18
Labour 4 3 19 2 2 - 2 - - 5
Fianna Fáil 26 12 7 68 6 7 10 - 29 29
Sinn Féin 15 9 13 7 72 - 5 - 16 12
Green Party 2 - 6 - - 85 2 - - 2
All Independents/ Others
29 21 42 17 17 8 80 100 37 31
Socialist Party/ People Before ProfitAlliance
1 - - 0 1 8 2 100 4 1
41
Type of Representatives Wanted in European Election – Candidate Support Base: All Midlands North West Voters in European Parliament Elections
Q.3In the European Elections, in the case of the statements below, please tell me whether each one was important in deciding who to vote for, or not?
Factors ofImportance
Total
European Election – 1st Preference
Thomas Byrne, Fianna
Fáil
Matt Carthy,
Sinn Féin
Mark Dearey, Green Party
T.J. Fay, Indepen
dent
Mark Fitzsimo
ns, Indepen
dent
Luke ‘Ming’
Flanagan,
Independent
Pat The Cope
Gallagher,
FiannaFáil
Ben Gilroy, Direct
Democracy
Ireland
Marian Harkin, Indepen
dent
Jim Higgins,
Fine Gael
Lorraine Higgins, Labour Party
MaireadMcGuinn
ess, Fine Gael
Ronan Mullan, Indepen
dent
Cordelia Níc
Fhearraigh, Fís Nua
% % % % % % % % % % % % % % %
I wanted a strong voice to stand up for Ireland/this constituency in Europe
86 88 89 81 82 100 90 80 84 78 83 92 85 84 100
I wanted someone with the experience to represent Ireland/this constituency in Europe
78 82 78 62 90 67 78 83 50 76 80 80 81 59 66
I wanted to protest against the Government.
46 47 68 37 82 100 59 42 51 52 19 40 20 36 79
I wanted to protest against the EU and its policies towards Ireland
46 39 63 39 82 100 66 45 40 47 17 28 29 42 79
None 6 6 4 14 10 - 3 7 - 8 11 - 6 5 -
42
Type of Representatives Wanted in European Election – European Election Party SupportBase: All Midlands North West Voters in European Parliament Elections
Q.3In the European Elections, in the case of the statements below, please tell me whether each one was important in deciding who to vote for, or not?
Factors of Importance Total
European Election Party Support
Fine Gael Labour Fianna FáilSinn Féin
Green Party
All Indep./ Others
Soc. P./PBPA
% % % % % % % %
I wanted a strong voice to stand up for Ireland/this constituency in Europe
86 84 92 84 89 81 86 -
I wanted someone with the experience to represent Ireland/this constituency in Europe
78 81 80 83 78 62 75 -
I wanted to protest against the Government.
46 20 40 44 68 37 55 -
I wanted to protest against the EU and its policies towards Ireland
46 26 28 42 63 39 58 -
None 6 7 - 7 4 14 5 -
43
Factors of Importance in European Election – European Election Candidate Support Base: All Midlands North West Voters in European Parliament Elections
Q.3In the European Elections, in the case of the statements below, please tell me whether each one was important in deciding who to vote for, or not?
Factors of Importance
Total
European Election – 1st Preference
Thomas Byrne, Fianna
Fáil
Matt Carthy,
Sinn Féin
Mark Dearey, Green Party
T.J. Fay, Indepen
dent
Mark Fitzsimo
ns, Indepen
dent
Luke ‘Ming’
Flanagan,
Independent
Pat The Cope
Gallagher,
FiannaFáil
Ben Gilroy, Direct
Democracy
Ireland
Marian Harkin, Indepen
dent
Jim Higgins,
Fine Gael
Lorraine Higgins, Labour Party
MaireadMcGuinn
ess, Fine Gael
Ronan Mullan, Indepen
dent
Cordelia Níc
Fhearraigh, Fís Nua
% % % % % % % % % % % % % % %
The handling of controversies surrounding the Gardaí, and the resignation of Alan Shatter as Minister for Justice.
34 46 47 45 54 33 46 24 37 42 16 13 17 23 23
The announcement of measures to support First Time House Buyers
32 33 36 33 45 33 44 20 21 40 34 17 20 19 23
The arrest and questioning of Gerry Adams
22 23 29 24 20 - 24 20 12 25 18 19 19 7 23
The exit of Ireland from the Troika Bailout
36 33 38 41 37 - 42 21 37 38 33 46 35 35 45
The forthcoming introduction of water charges
52 64 71 33 81 100 69 44 84 52 25 41 26 49 44
Reduced unemployment figures
46 52 54 28 63 33 54 28 54 43 47 44 40 47 44
The removal of some discretionary medical cards
52 60 69 38 81 100 60 48 54 52 30 40 34 51 44
The introduction of a Property Tax
52 53 74 37 71 100 69 46 71 50 26 43 29 54 44
None 26 20 17 41 19 - 15 38 16 29 38 32 36 29 34
44
Factors of Importance in European Election – European Election Party SupportBase: All Midlands North West Voters in European Parliament Elections
Q.3In the European Elections, in the case of the statements below, please tell me whether each one was important in deciding who to vote for, or not?
Factors of Importance Total
European Election Party Support
Fine Gael Labour Fianna FáilSinn Féin
Green Party
All Indep./ Others
Soc. P./PBPA
% % % % % % % %
The handling of controversies surrounding the Gardaí, and the resignation of Alan Shatter as Minister for Justice.
34 16 13 35 47 45 42 -
The announcement of measures to support First Time House Buyers
32 24 17 26 36 33 39 -
The arrest and questioning of Gerry Adams 22 19 19 21 29 24 22 -
The exit of Ireland from the Troika Bailout 36 35 46 26 38 41 40 -
The forthcoming introduction of water charges 52 26 41 53 71 33 62 -
Reduced unemployment figures 46 42 44 39 54 28 50 -
The removal of some discretionary medical cards 52 33 40 54 69 38 57 -
The introduction of a Property Tax 52 28 43 49 74 37 62 -
None 26 36 32 29 17 41 21 -
45
Satisfaction with Government – European Election Candidate SupportBase: All Midlands North West Voters in European Parliament Elections
Q.11 Overall, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country?
Satisfaction with
GovernmentTotal
European Election – 1st Preference
Thomas Byrne, Fianna
Fáil
Matt Carthy,
Sinn Féin
Mark Dearey, Green Party
T.J. Fay, Indepen
dent
Mark Fitzsimo
ns, Indepen
dent
Luke ‘Ming’
Flanagan,
Independent
Pat The Cope
Gallagher,
FiannaFáil
Ben Gilroy, Direct
Democracy
Ireland
Marian Harkin, Indepen
dent
Jim Higgins,
Fine Gael
Lorraine Higgins, Labour Party
MaireadMcGuinn
ess, Fine Gael
Ronan Mullan, Indepen
dent
Cordelia Níc
Fhearraigh, Fís Nua
% % % % % % % % % % % % % % %
Satisfied with the way the government is running the country
27 15 6 36 9 33 15 12 14 20 68 41 64 25 21
Dissatisfied with the way the government is running the country
66 80 89 45 91 67 79 81 86 71 30 54 28 68 79
Don’t know 6 5 5 19 - - 6 7 - 9 2 5 8 7 -
46
Satisfaction with Government – European Election Party SupportBase: All Midlands North West Voters in European Parliament Elections
Q.11 Overall, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country?
Satisfaction with
GovernmentTotal
European Election Party Support
Fine Gael Labour Fianna FáilSinn Féin
Green Party
All Indep./ Others
Soc. P./PBPA
% % % % % % % %
Satisfied with the way the government is running the country
27 65 41 14 6 36 18 -
Dissatisfied with the way the government is running the country
66 28 54 80 89 45 76 -
Don’t know 6 6 5 6 5 19 6 -
47
Economic Outlook – European Election Candidate SupportBase: All Midlands North West Voters in European Parliament Elections
Q.12Thinking about the economy in Ireland in the past 12 months, would you say that it has been getting better, getting worse, or staying the same?
Economic Outlook
Total
European Election – 1st Preference
Thomas Byrne, Fianna
Fáil
Matt Carthy,
Sinn Féin
Mark Dearey, Green Party
T.J. Fay, Indepen
dent
Mark Fitzsimo
ns, Indepen
dent
Luke ‘Ming’
Flanagan,
Independent
Pat The Cope
Gallagher,
FiannaFáil
Ben Gilroy, Direct
Democracy
Ireland
Marian Harkin, Indepen
dent
Jim Higgins,
Fine Gael
Lorraine Higgins, Labour Party
MaireadMcGuinn
ess, Fine Gael
Ronan Mullan, Indepen
dent
Cordelia Níc
Fhearraigh, Fís Nua
% % % % % % % % % % % % % % %
The economy in Ireland in the past 12 months has been getting better
27 22 16 53 9 - 17 14 - 24 40 44 50 30 56
The economy in Ireland in the past 12 months has stayed the same
40 45 31 25 28 67 39 44 60 39 44 42 42 51 23
The economy in Ireland in the past 12 months has been getting worse
33 33 52 22 63 33 44 42 40 37 16 15 7 19 21
48
Economic Outlook – European Election Party SupportBase: All Midlands North West Voters in European Parliament Elections
Q.12Thinking about the economy in Ireland in the past 12 months, would you say that it has been getting better, getting worse, or staying the same?
View of Economy Total
European Election Party Support
Fine Gael Labour Fianna FáilSinn Féin
Green Party
All Indep./ Others
Soc. P./PBPA
% % % % % % % %
The economy in Ireland in the past 12 months has been getting better
27 47 44 18 16 53 20 -
The economy in Ireland in the past 12 months has stayed the same
40 43 42 44 31 25 41 -
The economy in Ireland in the past 12 months has been getting worse
33 10 15 38 52 22 39 -
49
Household Financial Situation – European Election Candidate SupportBase: All Midlands North West Voters in European Parliament Elections
Q.13Thinking about the financial situation of your household in the past 12 months, would you say that it has been getting better, getting worse, or staying the same?
HouseholdFinancial
SituationTotal
European Election – 1st Preference
Thomas Byrne, Fianna
Fáil
Matt Carthy,
Sinn Féin
Mark Dearey, Green Party
T.J. Fay, Indepen
dent
Mark Fitzsimo
ns, Indepen
dent
Luke ‘Ming’
Flanagan,
Independent
Pat The Cope
Gallagher,
FiannaFáil
Ben Gilroy, Direct
Democracy
Ireland
Marian Harkin, Indepen
dent
Jim Higgins,
Fine Gael
Lorraine Higgins, Labour Party
MaireadMcGuinn
ess, Fine Gael
Ronan Mullan, Indepen
dent
Cordelia Níc
Fhearraigh, Fís Nua
% % % % % % % % % % % % % % %
The financial situation of your household in the past 12 months has been getting better
8 6 5 16 - - 6 2 - 6 14 5 16 6 -
The financial situation of your household in the past 12 months has stayed the same
53 51 40 65 55 33 49 53 31 44 67 60 63 67 79
The financial situation of your household in the past 12 months has been getting worse
40 43 55 19 45 67 45 45 69 50 19 35 21 27 21
50
Household Financial Situation – European Election Party SupportBase: All Midlands North West Voters in European Parliament Elections
Q.13Thinking about the financial situation of your household in the past 12 months, would you say that it has been getting better, getting worse, or staying the same?
Household Financial
SituationTotal
European Election Party Support
Fine Gael Labour Fianna FáilSinn Féin
Green Party
All Indep./ Others
Soc. P./PBPA
% % % % % % % %
The financial situation of your household in the past 12 months has been getting better
8 16 5 4 5 16 5 -
The financial situation of your household in the past 12 months has stayed the same
53 64 60 52 40 65 49 -
The financial situation of your household in the past 12 months has been getting worse
40 21 35 44 55 19 45 -
51
Midlands North West ConstituencyInterpretation & Analysis
52
Interpretation & Analysis
A four seat constituency, Midlands-North-West sprawls from Donegal in the North down to Galway and Mayo in the West, and into Laois/Offaly and the Midlands.
Given the geographical spread of the constituency, both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil are running two candidates, with each emanating from different ends of the constituency.
Based upon today’s exit poll, it is a certainty that Luke ‘Ming’ Flanagan will be elected as MEP for Midlands-North-West, topping the poll and making it over the line in the early stages of the count.
Flanagan’s support is steady across all socio demographic groupings, albeit peaking amongst the younger 18-34 year old cohort.
A four seat constituency, next in line to be elected will be Mairead McGuinness of Fine Gael. McGuinness will capture circa 16% of the first preference vote, and will benefit from in or around 60% of running mate Jim Higgin’s transfers upon elimination, propelling her over the line. It may take many counts, based on a number of successive eliminations, before McGuinness is elected.
Fianna Fáil stalwart Pat the Cope Gallagher at 11% is neck and neck with his running mate, Thomas Byrne on 10%. Neither appear to be attracting significant transfers, so it is likely that whoever can stay ahead will be elected by virtue of their party rival’s transfers on elimination.
53
Interpretation & Analysis
We are then in a battle for the fourth and final seat between Marian Harkin, sitting independent MEP and Matt Carthy of Sinn Féin.
Our exit poll suggests Harkin is trailing Carthy on first preferences by a couple of points.
Crucially Harkin is significantly more transfer-friendly than Carthy, and this could see Harkin pip Carthy at the post, come the end of the count, drawing on transfers from Lorraine Higgins of Labour, Ronan Mullan Independent, and even Fine Gael’s Higgins.
54
European Elections 2014:South Constituency
55
First Preference Vote: European Election: SouthBase: All South Voters in European Parliament Elections
3
9
26
1
7
5
1
12
17
5
2
1
5
5
1
Richard Cahill, Independent
Deirdre Clune, Fine Gael
Brian Crowley, Fianna Fáil
Jillian Godsil, Independent
Simon Harris, Fine Gael
Kieran Hartley, Fianna Fáil
Theresa Heaney, Catholic Democrats (The National Party)
Sean Kelly, Fine Gael
Liadh Ní Riada, Sinn Féin
Diarmuid Patrick O'Flynn, Independent
Peter O'Loughlin, Independent
Dónal Ó'Ríordáin, Fís Nua
Grace O'Sullivan, Green Party
Phil Prendergast, Labour Party
Jan Van De Ven, Direct Democracy Ireland
% First Preference Vote
Q.1The candidates for election in the European Parliament Election are listed on this ballot paper. Please mark the ballot paper giving your order of preference as you have just voted.
56
First Preference Vote: European Election: SouthBase: All South Voters in European Parliament Elections
TotalGender Age Class
Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-49 50+ ABC1 C2DE F
% % % % % % % % % %
Richard Cahill, Independent 3 2 4 6 4 2 2 3 3 1
Deirdre Clune, Fine Gael 9 5 12 7 9 8 9 8 8 18
Brian Crowley, Fianna Fáil 26 25 27 24 23 26 27 23 28 30
Jillian Godsil, Independent 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 1 2 1
Simon Harris, Fine Gael 7 6 7 5 7 8 6 9 5 7
Kieran Hartley, Fianna Fáil 5 5 4 10 5 4 4 7 3 4
Theresa Heaney, Catholic Democrats (The National Party)
1 1 2 - 2 1 2 1 1 1
Sean Kelly, Fine Gael 12 16 8 14 15 11 12 13 10 19
Liadh Ní Riada, Sinn Féin 17 19 16 19 22 19 15 14 22 8
Diarmuid Patrick O'Flynn, Independent
5 6 5 5 4 5 6 7 4 2
Peter O'Loughlin, Independent 2 2 2 - 2 1 2 2 1 1
Dónal Ó'Ríordáin, Fís Nua 1 0 1 - 1 1 0 1 0 -
Grace O'Sullivan, Green Party 5 5 6 3 4 8 5 7 4 6
Phil Prendergast, Labour Party 5 5 6 5 2 4 7 4 7 2
Jan Van De Ven, Direct Democracy Ireland
1 2 1 - 1 2 2 2 1 -
Q.1The candidates for election in the European Parliament Election are listed on this ballot paper. Please mark the ballot paper giving your order of preference as you have just voted.
57
First Preference Vote: European Election: SouthBase: All South Voters in European Parliament Elections
Region
Total Cork, KerryClare, Limerick,
TipperaryCarlow, Kilkenny,
Waterford, Wexford
% % % %
Richard Cahill, Independent 3 2 4 3
Deirdre Clune, Fine Gael 9 14 6 4
Brian Crowley, Fianna Fáil 26 26 31 21
Jillian Godsil, Independent 1 2 1 1
Simon Harris, Fine Gael 7 1 4 16
Kieran Hartley, Fianna Fáil 5 3 6 5
Theresa Heaney, Catholic Democrats (The National Party)
1 1 1 2
Sean Kelly, Fine Gael 12 12 16 9
Liadh Ní Riada, Sinn Féin 17 24 11 15
Diarmuid Patrick O'Flynn, Independent 5 5 8 4
Peter O'Loughlin, Independent 2 1 1 3
Dónal Ó'Ríordáin, Fís Nua 1 0 1 0
Grace O'Sullivan, Green Party 5 4 5 7
Phil Prendergast, Labour Party 5 4 6 7
Jan Van De Ven, Direct Democracy Ireland 1 1 1 2
Q.1The candidates for election in the European Parliament Election are listed on this ballot paper. Please mark the ballot paper giving your order of preference as you have just voted.
58
First Preference Vote: European Election: SouthBase: All South Voters in European Parliament Elections
Local Election Party Support – First Preference
Total Fine Gael LabourFianna
FáilSinn Féin
Green Party
All Indep./ Others
Soc. P./PBPA
Richard Cahill, Independent 3 2 2 2 - - 6 10
Deirdre Clune, Fine Gael 9 24 5 2 2 - 4 -
Brian Crowley, Fianna Fáil 26 17 18 59 4 7 19 18
Jillian Godsil, Independent 1 1 - - - - 5 -
Simon Harris, Fine Gael 7 14 13 4 - 5 3 -
Kieran Hartley, Fianna Fáil 5 3 - 12 3 - 2 -
Theresa Heaney, Catholic Democrats (The National Party)
1 1 1 1 - - 2 -
Sean Kelly, Fine Gael 12 27 3 5 4 - 10 -
Liadh Ní Riada, Sinn Féin 17 2 - 7 80 - 15 28
Diarmuid Patrick O'Flynn, Independent 5 3 4 1 4 4 13 10
Peter O'Loughlin, Independent 2 1 1 2 - 6 3 7
Dónal Ó'Ríordáin, Fís Nua 1 - - 0 2 4 0 10
Grace O'Sullivan, Green Party 5 3 5 2 1 66 8 9
Phil Prendergast, Labour Party 5 1 47 2 - 9 6 9
Jan Van De Ven, Direct Democracy Ireland 1 1 1 1 1 - 3 -
Q.1The candidates for election in the European Parliament Election are listed on this ballot paper. Please mark the ballot paper giving your order of preference as you have just voted.
59
European Election Second Preference Support Levels Versus European Election 1st Preference Support: SouthBase: All South Voters in European Parliament Elections
Second Preference
Total
European Election – 1st Preference
Richard Cahill,
Independent
Deirdre Clune,
Fine Gael
Brian Crowley, Fianna
Fáil
Jillian Godsil,
Independent
Simon Harris, Fine Gael
Kieran Hartley,Fianna
Fáil
Theresa Heaney, Catholic
Democrats
Sean Kelly, Fine Gael
Liadh NíRiada, Sinn Féin
Diarmuid Patrick O'Flynn, Indepen
dent
Peter O'Loughl
in, Indepen
dent
Dónal Ó'Ríordáin, Fís Nua
Grace O'Sullivan, Green
Party
Phil Prender
gast, Labour Party
Jan Van De Ven, Direct
Democ. Ireland
% % % % % % % % % % % % % % % %Richard Cahill, Independent
3 - - 1 17 2 - 9 3 4 11 10 - 4 3 -
Deirdre Clune, Fine Gael
9 - - 9 6 22 - 16 30 3 4 - - 8 9 -
Brian Crowley, FiannaFáil
11 16 8 - 6 11 53 26 15 12 9 6 - 12 10 7
Jillian Godsil, Independent
3 12 4 1 - - - - 2 5 3 - - 2 4 8
Simon Harris, Fine Gael
7 - 30 3 8 - 2 - 14 3 - 18 - 3 8 -
Kieran Hartley, Fianna Fáil
9 - 3 29 - 2 - - 3 2 - - - 3 3 -
Theresa Heaney, Catholic Democrats (The National Party)
2 - 2 2 - 2 - - - 1 3 5 - 5 - 6
Sean Kelly, Fine Gael 10 4 26 16 7 20 2 - - 4 8 7 - 4 16 -
Liadh Ní Riada, Sinn Féin
6 7 5 7 - - 6 17 4 - 16 8 28 9 8 12
Diarmuid Patrick O'Flynn, Independent
4 7 - 2 26 1 2 - 3 9 - 16 15 3 3 -
Peter O'Loughlin, Independent
2 6 - 1 - 1 - - - 3 11 - - - 2 6
Dónal Ó'Ríordáin, Fís Nua
1 7 1 0 - - 2 - - 2 - - - 1 - 6
Grace O'Sullivan, Green Party
4 4 2 3 - 7 7 6 3 6 5 8 - - 3 5
Phil Prendergast, Labour Party
4 3 3 4 - 11 4 - 3 1 5 - - 14 - 6
Jan Van De Ven, Direct Democracy Ireland
1 - - - 6 1 - - - 4 1 5 - - - -
Don't know - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Q.1The candidates for election in the European Parliament Election are listed on this ballot paper. Please mark the ballot paper giving your order of preference as you have just voted.
60
Reasons for First Preference European Election Candidate Support: SouthBase: All South Voters in European Parliament Elections
Main Influencing Candidate Factors
Total
European Election – 1st Preference
Richard Cahill,
Independent
Deirdre Clune,
Fine Gael
Brian Crowley, Fianna
Fáil
Jillian Godsil,
Independent
Simon Harris, Fine Gael
Kieran Hartley,Fianna
Fáil
Theresa Heaney, Catholic Democra
ts
Sean Kelly, Fine Gael
Liadh NíRiada, Sinn Féin
Diarmuid Patrick O'Flynn, Indepen
dent
Peter O'Loughl
in, Indepen
dent
Dónal Ó'Ríordáin, Fís Nua
Grace O'Sullivan, Green
Party
Phil Prender
gast, Labour Party
Jan Van De Ven, Direct
Democ. Ireland
% % % % % % % % % % % % % % % %
The personality or qualities of the candidate
46 42 42 64 49 52 45 50 48 34 37 23 46 33 33 27
The party of the candidate
28 18 44 21 14 24 42 6 31 38 15 13 - 24 39 6
The policies of the candidate
19 26 8 12 37 16 11 36 15 18 39 48 54 37 13 56
The candidate’s party leader
2 - 1 1 - - - - 2 3 - - - 2 6 -
None of these 4 3 5 1 - 7 2 7 4 6 9 17 - 3 5 11
Don’t know 1 10 - 1 - 2 - - - 1 - - - - 3 -
Q.2Please tell me which one of the following was the main reason you decided to give your first preference vote to that candidate in the European Parliament elections?
61
Reasons for First Preference Vote in European Election Party Support: SouthBase: All South Voters in European Parliament Elections
Main Influencing Candidate Factors
Total
European Election Party Support
Fine Gael Labour Fianna FáilSinn Féin
Green Party
All Indep./ Others
Soc. P./PBPA
% % % % % % %
The personality or qualities of the candidate
46 47 33 61 34 33 38 -
The party of the candidate 28 33 39 24 38 24 13 -
The policies of the candidate
19 13 13 12 18 37 40 -
The candidate’s party leader
2 1 6 1 3 2 - -
None of these 4 5 5 1 6 3 8 -
Don’t know 1 0 3 1 1 - 2 -
Q.2Please tell me which one of the following was the main reason you decided to give your first preference vote to that candidate in the European Parliament elections?
62
Local Election Versus European Election First Preference: South Base: All South Voters in European Parliament Elections
Local Election FirstPreference Vote
European Election Party Support
Total Fine Gael LabourFianna
FáilSinn Féin
Green Party
All Indep./ Others
Soc. P./PBPA
% % % % % % % %
Fine Gael 28 66 6 18 3 16 18 -
Labour 6 5 55 4 - 5 5 -
Fianna Fail 24 10 7 57 10 11 13 -
Sinn Fein 14 3 - 3 63 4 6 -
Green Party 2 0 4 1 - 27 2 -
All Indep./Others 25 16 28 17 22 38 56 -
Soc.P/PBPA 1 - 2 1 2 2 3 -
Q.5 To which party or independent candidate did you just give your first preference vote in the local elections?
63
European Election Versus 2011 General Election: SouthBase: All South Voters in European Parliament Elections
Q.5Q.10
To which party or independent candidate did you just give your first preference vote in the European elections? To which party or independent candidate did you give your first preference vote in the 2011 General Election?
European Election First Preference
Party Vote Total
General Election 2011
Fine Gael
LabourFianna
FáilSinn Féin
Green Party
All Indep./ Others
Soc. P./PBPA
Don’t know
Did not vote
% % % % % % % %
Fine Gael 28 54 7 9 5 - 8 31 27 26
Labour 6 3 34 3 3 - 1 - 6 4
Fianna Fail 24 11 9 66 8 14 10 - 26 20
Sinn Fein 14 8 17 9 69 - 8 - 5 15
Green Party 2 2 6 0 - 41 2 - 2 1
All Indep./Others 25 22 27 12 16 45 70 69 30 32
Soc.P/PBPA 1 1 1 1 3 - 1 19 1 -
64
Type of Representatives Wanted in European Election – Candidate Support Base: All South Voters in European Parliament Elections
Q.3In the European Elections, in the case of the statements below, please tell me whether each one was important in deciding who to vote for, or not?
Factors ofImportance
Total
European Election – 1st Preference
Richard Cahill,
Independent
Deirdre Clune,
Fine Gael
Brian Crowley, Fianna
Fáil
Jillian Godsil,
Independent
Simon Harris, Fine Gael
Kieran Hartley,Fianna
Fáil
Theresa Heaney, Catholic Democra
ts
Sean Kelly, Fine Gael
Liadh NíRiada, Sinn Féin
Diarmuid Patrick O'Flynn, Indepen
dent
Peter O'Loughl
in, Indepen
dent
Dónal Ó'Ríordáin, Fís Nua
Grace O'Sullivan, Green
Party
Phil Prender
gast, Labour Party
Jan Van De Ven, Direct
Democ. Ireland
% % % % % % % % % % % % % % % %
I wanted a strong voice to stand up for Ireland/this constituency in Europe
86 83 95 87 94 72 85 88 85 89 86 83 72 84 90 77
I wanted someone with the experience to represent Ireland/this constituency in Europe
77 75 88 88 36 71 79 73 83 68 53 57 61 65 83 56
I wanted to protest against the Government.
44 69 17 41 64 21 57 51 18 73 77 39 36 44 28 79
I wanted to protest against the EU and its policies towards Ireland
39 51 29 35 76 24 39 37 25 58 52 35 15 52 22 67
None 4 12 3 5 - 6 3 - 7 4 - 5 - 2 2 10
65
Type of Representatives Wanted in European Election – European Election Party SupportBase: All South Voters in European Parliament Elections
Q.3In the European Elections, in the case of the statements below, please tell me whether each one was important in deciding who to vote for, or not?
Factors of Importance Total
European Election Party Support
Fine Gael Labour Fianna FáilSinn Féin
Green Party
All Indep./ Others
Soc. P./PBPA
% % % % % % % %
I wanted a strong voice to stand up for Ireland/this constituency in Europe
86 85 90 87 89 84 85 -
I wanted someone with the experience to represent Ireland/this constituency in Europe
77 81 83 87 68 65 59 -
I wanted to protest against the Government.
44 19 28 43 73 44 67 -
I wanted to protest against the EU and its policies towards Ireland
39 26 22 35 58 52 51 -
None 4 5 2 5 4 2 4
66
Factors of Importance in European Election – European Election Candidate Support Base: All South Voters in European Parliament Elections
Q.4 Please tell me whether any of the following influenced how you voted in the European election, or not?
Factors of Importance
Total
European Election – 1st Preference
Richard Cahill,
Independent
Deirdre Clune,
Fine Gael
Brian Crowley, Fianna
Fáil
Jillian Godsil,
Independent
Simon Harris, Fine Gael
Kieran Hartley,Fianna
Fáil
Theresa Heaney, Catholic Democra
ts
Sean Kelly, Fine Gael
Liadh NíRiada, Sinn Féin
Diarmuid Patrick O'Flynn, Indepen
dent
Peter O'Loughl
in, Indepen
dent
Dónal Ó'Ríordáin, Fís Nua
Grace O'Sullivan, Green
Party
Phil Prender
gast, Labour Party
Jan Van De Ven, Direct
Democ. Ireland
% % % % % % % % % % % % % % % %The handling of controversies surrounding the Gardaí, and the resignation of Alan Shatter as Minister for Justice.
31 40 17 30 52 21 38 28 23 41 42 30 33 26 31 40
The announcement of measures to support First Time House Buyers
23 25 28 22 14 24 16 23 24 30 11 16 54 19 20 26
The arrest and questioning of Gerry Adams
22 26 15 19 48 15 37 25 21 29 24 11 18 26 20 13
The exit of Ireland from the Troika Bailout
29 46 42 25 24 26 29 38 25 30 29 33 54 27 29 37
The forthcoming introduction of water charges
51 79 25 52 61 32 47 31 35 72 72 53 72 49 39 66
Reduced unemployment figures
42 61 46 37 41 45 44 23 40 50 36 22 33 33 52 48
The removal of some discretionary medical cards
53 86 33 54 55 29 61 43 37 74 65 35 33 57 49 80
The introduction of a Property Tax
51 75 33 51 66 28 68 34 31 73 73 50 72 48 37 69
None 24 11 29 28 12 31 15 51 31 13 12 22 28 30 22 15
67
Factors of Importance in European Election – European Election Party SupportBase: All South Voters in European Parliament Elections
Factors of Importance Total
European Election Party Support
Fine Gael Labour Fianna FáilSinn Féin
Green Party
All Indep./ Others
Soc. P./PBPA
% % % % % % %
The handling of controversies surrounding the Gardaí, and the resignation of Alan Shatter as Minister for Justice.
31 20 31 32 41 26 39 -
The announcement of measures to support First Time House Buyers
23 25 20 21 30 19 19 -
The arrest and questioning of Gerry Adams
22 17 20 21 29 26 24 -
The exit of Ireland from the Troika Bailout
29 31 29 25 30 27 35 -
The forthcoming introduction of water charges
51 31 39 51 72 49 66 -
Reduced unemployment figures
42 43 52 38 50 33 39 -
The removal of some discretionary medical cards
53 34 49 55 74 57 63 -
The introduction of a Property Tax
51 31 37 54 73 48 66 -
None 24 31 22 26 13 30 18 -
Q.4 Please tell me whether any of the following influenced how you voted in the European election, or not?
68
Satisfaction with Government – European Election Candidate SupportBase: All South Voters in European Parliament Elections
Q.11 Overall, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country?
Satisfaction with
GovernmentTotal
European Election – 1st Preference
Richard Cahill,
Independent
Deirdre Clune,
Fine Gael
Brian Crowley, Fianna
Fáil
Jillian Godsil,
Independent
Simon Harris, Fine Gael
Kieran Hartley,Fianna
Fáil
Theresa Heaney, Catholic Democra
ts
Sean Kelly, Fine Gael
Liadh NíRiada, Sinn Féin
Diarmuid Patrick O'Flynn, Indepen
dent
Peter O'Loughl
in, Indepen
dent
Dónal Ó'Ríordáin, Fís Nua
Grace O'Sullivan, Green
Party
Phil Prender
gast, Labour Party
Jan Van De Ven, Direct
Democ. Ireland
% % % % % % % % % % % % % % % %
Satisfied with the way the government is running the country
26 11 62 18 7 53 15 12 50 7 12 16 28 22 30 10
Dissatisfied with the way the government is running the country
69 84 30 77 76 44 85 88 42 90 82 84 72 68 61 90
Don’t know 5 5 8 5 17 3 - - 8 3 6 - - 10 9 -
69
Satisfaction with Government – European Election Party SupportBase: All South Voters in European Parliament Elections
Q.11 Overall, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country?
Satisfaction with
GovernmentTotal
European Election Party Support
Fine Gael Labour Fianna FáilSinn Féin
Green Party
All Indep./ Others
Soc. P./PBPA
% % % % % % % %
Satisfied with the way the government is running the country
26 54 30 18 7 22 12 -
Dissatisfied with the way the government is running the country
69 39 61 78 90 68 83 -
Don’t know 5 7 9 4 3 10 5 -
70
Economic Outlook – European Election Candidate SupportBase: All South Voters in European Parliament Elections
Q.12Thinking about the economy in Ireland in the past 12 months, would you say that it has been getting better, getting worse, or staying the same?
Economic
Outlook Total
European Election – 1st Preference
Richard Cahill,
Independent
Deirdre Clune,
Fine Gael
Brian Crowley, Fianna
Fáil
Jillian Godsil,
Independent
Simon Harris, Fine Gael
Kieran Hartley,Fianna
Fáil
Theresa Heaney, Catholic Democra
ts
Sean Kelly, Fine Gael
Liadh NíRiada, Sinn Féin
Diarmuid Patrick O'Flynn, Indepen
dent
Peter O'Loughl
in, Indepen
dent
Dónal Ó'Ríordáin, Fís Nua
Grace O'Sullivan, Green
Party
Phil Prender
gast, Labour Party
Jan Van De Ven, Direct
Democ. Ireland
% % % % % % % % % % % % % % % %
The economy in Ireland in the past 12 months has been getting better
35 8 71 25 25 58 41 17 54 18 23 24 46 32 48 11
The economy in Ireland in the past 12 months has stayed the same
35 49 15 37 29 29 31 56 36 42 32 48 15 41 26 43
The economy in Ireland in the past 12 months has been getting worse
30 42 14 37 45 12 27 27 10 40 45 28 39 27 26 46
71
Economic Outlook – European Election Party SupportBase: All South Voters in European Parliament Elections
Q.12Thinking about the economy in Ireland in the past 12 months, would you say that it has been getting better, getting worse, or staying the same?
View of Economy Total
European Election Party Support
Fine Gael Labour Fianna FáilSinn Féin
Green Party
All Indep./ Others
Soc. P./PBPA
% % % % % % % %
The economy in Ireland in the past 12 months has been getting better
35 60 48 28 18 32 20 -
The economy in Ireland in the past 12 months has stayed the same
35 28 26 37 42 41 40 -
The economy in Ireland in the past 12 months has been getting worse
30 12 26 36 40 27 41 -
72
Household Financial Situation – European Election Candidate SupportBase: All South Voters in European Parliament Elections
Q.13Thinking about the financial situation of your household in the past 12 months, would you say that it has been getting better, getting worse, or staying the same?
HouseholdFinancial
SituationTotal
European Election – 1st Preference
Richard Cahill,
Independent
Deirdre Clune,
Fine Gael
Brian Crowley, Fianna
Fáil
Jillian Godsil,
Independent
Simon Harris, Fine Gael
Kieran Hartley,Fianna
Fáil
Theresa Heaney, Catholic Democra
ts
Sean Kelly, Fine Gael
Liadh NíRiada, Sinn Féin
Diarmuid Patrick O'Flynn, Indepen
dent
Peter O'Loughl
in, Indepen
dent
Dónal Ó'Ríordáin, Fís Nua
Grace O'Sullivan, Green
Party
Phil Prender
gast, Labour Party
Jan Van De Ven, Direct
Democ. Ireland
% % % % % % % % % % % % % % % %
The financial situation of your household in the past 12 months has been getting better
13 - 31 8 13 21 11 13 25 9 3 - 28 10 14 -
The financial situation of your household in the past 12 months has stayed the same
42 35 46 46 41 54 48 13 49 27 36 48 18 42 44 34
The financial situation of your household in the past 12 months has been getting worse
45 65 22 46 46 25 42 74 26 63 61 52 54 49 41 66
73
Household Financial Situation – European Election Party SupportBase: All South Voters in European Parliament Elections
Q.13Thinking about the financial situation of your household in the past 12 months, would you say that it has been getting better, getting worse, or staying the same?
Household Financial
SituationTotal
European Election Party Support
Fine Gael Labour Fianna FáilSinn Féin
Green Party
All Indep./ Others
Soc. P./PBPA
% % % % % % %
The financial situation of your household in the past 12 months has been getting better
13 26 14 9 9 10 5 -
The financial situation of your household in the past 12 months has stayed the same
42 49 44 46 27 42 34 -
The financial situation of your household in the past 12 months has been getting worse
45 25 41 45 63 49 61 -
74
South ConstituencyInterpretation & Analysis
75
Interpretation & Analysis
The South Constituency is a vast one, encompassing swathes of the so-called Greater Dublin Area, such as Wicklow and Wexford, across to Limerick and Clare, swooping down to Cork and Kerry.
This broad geographical constituency footprint led both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael to run multiple candidates, although it was always acknowledged that Brian Crowley of Fianna Fáilwould greatly outstrip his running mate, Kieran Hartley, and head the poll, as is his want.
And so it has come to pass. Our exit poll suggests that Crowley will return to Europe on the first count, with his surplus of no practical use to his running mate Hartley in seriously challenging for a seat.
Next in line is Liadh Ní Riada of Sinn Féin whose 17% share of first preferences will comfortably see her home, by virtue of a mix of some of Crowley’s surplus, and transfers from Independent Diarmuid Patrick O'Flynn, and in particular Grace O’Sullivan of the Greens.
Indeed, Phil Prendergast’s spirited attempt to distance herself from Labour’s woes has yielded no dividends and she is likely to join her colleagues Emer Costello in Dublin and Lorraine Higgins in Midlands North West as also-rans. However, Prendergast stayed until late in the race, and would seem to have lasted longer than her Labour stablemates.
76
Interpretation & Analysis
The third candidate likely to be elected in the South constituency is Sean Kelly of Fine Gael, who will benefit from the elimination of his running mate Simon Harris, some of whose transfers will also bolster Deirdre Clune, who is in pole position to pick up the fourth and final seat.
Probably the most predictable of all three Euro constituencies, it would be a major shock based on these exit poll figures if anybody but the four aforementioned candidates were to be elected to the European Parliament in Ireland South.
77
Local Election 2014National Picture
78
First Preference Party Vote: Local ElectionsBase: All Voters
24
7
22
16
3
28
3
Fine Gael
Labour
Fianna Fail
Sinn Fein
Green Party
All Indep./Others
Soc.P/PBPA
First Preference
Vote%
Gender Age Class
MaleFemal
e18-24 25-34 35-49 50+ ABC1 C2DE F
% % % % % % % % %
23 24 20 21 24 25 26 19 39
7 7 4 4 7 8 8 7 1
23 21 28 19 20 23 20 22 34
17 14 14 20 16 14 12 22 6
3 3 1 4 4 2 5 2 -
26 30 32 31 28 26 29 29 20
2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 -
Q.5 To which party or independent candidate did you just give your first preference vote in the local elections
79
First Preference Party Vote: Local ElectionsBase: All Voters
24
7
22
16
3
28
3
Fine Gael
Labour
Fianna Fail
Sinn Fein
Green Party
All Indep./Others
Soc.P/PBPA
% First Preference
Vote
RegionEuropean Election Exit Poll Party Support – First
Preference
DublinRestLeins
Munster
Conn/ Ulster
Fine Gael
Lab-our
FiannaFáil
Sinn Féin
GreenParty
All Indep/Others
Soc.P./PBPA
% % % % % % % % % % %
16 27 27 23 69 12 12 2 13 14 3
12 8 5 2 5 52 4 1 13 5 6
12 22 25 29 9 8 64 7 9 13 6
21 17 13 12 3 2 4 70 3 7 8
6 2 2 2 1 3 1 0 34 2 2
32 24 27 32 14 23 15 18 27 58 73
9 1 1 1 0 2 1 2 2 7 42
Q.5 To which party or independent candidate did you just give your first preference vote in the local elections
80
Local Elections First Preference Vote Versus 2011 General ElectionBase: All Voters
2014 LocalElection Exit
Poll Total
2011 General Election First Preference
Fine Gael
LabourFianna
FáilSinn Féin
Green Party
Indepen-dent/ Others
SP/PBP
Don’t know
Did not vote
% % % % % % % % % %
Fine Gael 24 52 8 7 3 2 4 5 21 20
Labour Party 7 4 27 4 2 7 2 3 6 6
Fianna Fáil 22 11 6 65 5 6 9 - 22 22
Sinn Féin 16 8 18 9 74 2 7 3 11 16
Green Party 3 2 7 0 0 59 3 2 1 3
All Independent/Others
28 23 34 15 16 22 75 87 36 31
Socialist Party/ People Before Profit Alliance
3 1 5 2 2 2 9 58 4 2
Q.5 To which party or independent candidate did you just give your first preference vote in the local elections
81
Future General Election Voting Intention x Local Election Party SupportBase: All Voters
Q.14And to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote if a General Election were held tomorrow?
Future GE Support Total
Local Election Party Support
Fine Gael Labour Fianna Fáil Sinn FéinGreen Party
All Indep./ Others
Soc. P./PBPA
% % % % % % % %
Fine Gael 21 70 14 5 1 12 7 3
Labour Party 5 2 50 2 0 7 2 1
Fianna Fáil 19 3 10 69 2 - 6 4
Sinn Féin 18 2 3 5 82 - 11 11
Green Party 3 1 2 1 1 53 2 4
All Independent/Others 22 7 11 6 5 13 60 70
Socialist Party/ People Before Profit Alliance
3 - 1 0 1 3 8 59
Don’t know 12 16 11 12 8 14 12 8
Would not vote 0 0 - 0 - - 1 -
82
Local Election 1st Preference Party x Satisfaction with GovernmentBase: All Voters
Q.11 Overall, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country?
Local Election Party Support
TotalFine Gael
LabourFianna
FáilSinnFéin
Green Party
All Independent
/ Others
Socialist Party / People
Before Profit Alliance
% % % % % % % %
Satisfied with the way the government is running the country
26 58 40 16 6 29 15 8
Dissatisfied with the way the government is running the country
68 35 54 79 91 62 79 88
Don’t know 5 7 6 4 3 9 6 4
83
Local Election 1st Preference Party x View of EconomyBase: All Voters
Q.12Thinking about the economy in Ireland in the past 12 months, would you say that it has been getting better, getting worse, or staying the same?
Total
Local Election Party Support
Fine Gael
LabourFianna
FáilSinnFéin
Green Party
All Independent
/ Others
Socialist Party / People
Before Profit Alliance
% % % % % % % %
The economy in Ireland in the past 12 months has been getting better
34 54 53 25 18 57 27 26
The economy in Ireland in the past 12 months has stayed the same
36 33 30 41 33 25 39 40
The economy in Ireland in the past 12 months has been getting worse
30 13 18 34 49 17 35 35
84
Local Election 1st Preference Party x Household Financial SituationBase: All Voters
Q.13Thinking about the financial situation of your household in the past 12 months, would you say that it has been getting better, getting worse, or staying the same?
Total
Local Election Party Support
Fine Gael
LabourFianna
FáilSinnFéin
Green Party
All Independent
/ Others
Socialist Party / People
Before Profit Alliance
% % % % % % % %
The financial situation of your household in the past 12 months has been getting better
11 21 17 7 5 14 8 6
The financial situation of your household in the past 12 months has stayed the same
46 52 52 47 34 51 44 44
The financial situation of your household in the past 12 months has been getting worse
43 27 31 46 61 36 48 50
85
Reason for Vote x Local Election 1st Preference PartyBase: Voters
Q.6And thinking again of the local election, please tell me which one of the following was the main reason you decided to give your first preference vote to that candidate in the local election?
Main Reason for Preference Total
Local Election Party Support
Fine Gael LabourFianna
FáilSinn Féin
Green Party
All Indep./ Others
Soc. Party/People Before Profit
% % % % % % % %
The personality or qualities of the candidate 50 57 56 54 28 28 54 20
The party of the candidate 23 28 25 27 37 30 8 21
The policies of the candidate 21 10 16 14 27 32 31 54
The candidate’s party leader 2 2 1 2 3 2 1 1
None of these 3 2 2 2 5 5 5 5
Don’t know 1 1 - 1 0 2 1 -
86
Type of Representation Wanted x Local Election 1st
Preference PartyBase: All Voters
Q.7In the Local Election, in the case of the statements below, please tell me whether each one was important in deciding who to vote for, or not?
Factors of Importance Total
Local Election Party Support
Fine Gael
LabourFianna
FáilSinn Féin
Green Party
All Indep./ Others
Soc. Party/People Before Profit
% % % % % % % %
I wanted a candidate who
would represent my views on local issues
Important 89 85 90 89 92 83 90 94
Not important 10 14 9 8 7 15 9 5
Don’t know 1 1 0 3 1 2 1 1
I wanted to protest against the Government and its policies
Important 53 22 29 55 82 47 68 75
Not important 45 75 69 43 17 50 30 22
Don’t know 2 2 1 3 1 3 2 3
87
Influencing Factors x Local Election 1st Preference PartyBase: All Voters
Factors of Influence Total
Local Election Party Support
Fine Gael LabourFianna
FáilSinn Féin
Green Party
All Indep./ Others
Soc. Party/People Before Profit
% % % % % % % %
The handling of controversies surrounding the Gardaí, and the resignation of Alan Shatter as Minister for Justice
32 18 22 36 46 26 36 39
The announcement of measures to support First Time House Buyers
28 23 22 29 39 15 29 19
The arrest and questioning of Gerry Adams 23 15 15 24 38 17 22 16
The exit of Ireland from the Troika Bailout 29 29 31 24 36 31 29 22
The forthcoming introduction of water charges
55 30 39 57 81 40 66 81
Reduced unemployment figures 45 41 49 41 59 30 46 45
The removal of some discretionary medical cards
57 36 45 59 82 39 63 69
The introduction of a Property Tax 54 30 39 56 79 34 65 74
None 25 38 26 26 9 37 20 10
Q.8 Please tell me whether any of the following influenced how you voted in the Local election, or not?
88
Coalition Preferences x Local Election SupportBase: All Voters
Q.15 Which of the following coalitions would you like to see following the next General Election?
Preferred Coalition Total
Local Election Party Support
Fine Gael LabourFianna
FáilSinn Féin
Green Party
All Indep./ Others
Soc. P./PBPA
% % % % % % % %
Fine Gael and Labour 18 45 46 5 2 16 9 7
Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil 15 20 10 30 2 7 10 3
Fine Gael and Sinn Féin 4 7 3 1 7 1 3 2
Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil 15 3 7 24 35 4 10 14
Sinn Féin, Labour, Greens and other left wing parties and independents
12 1 8 2 29 27 20 29
Other 13 7 11 15 14 22 16 20
Don’t know 24 19 18 24 13 26 34 28
Would not vote 1 1 - 0 0 1 1 -
89
Replacement of Leader x Local Election SupportBase: All Voters
Q.16Which, if any, of the following do you feel should be replaced as the leader of their party over the next three months or so?
Leaders Feel Should be Replaced
Total
Local Election Party Support
Fine Gael LabourFianna
FáilSinn Féin
Green Party
All Indep./ Others
Soc. P./PBPA
% % % % % % % %
Enda Kenny as leader of Fine Gael 35 15 23 38 58 30 39 47
Micheál Martin as leader of FiannaFáil
22 19 19 19 29 23 24 29
Eamon Gilmore as leader of the Labour Party
44 27 40 44 59 44 50 52
Gerry Adams as leader of Sinn Féin 34 43 36 35 19 41 33 23
Eamon Ryan as leader of the Green Party
10 8 5 7 14 7 14 20
Don’t know 10 11 6 9 5 13 12 8
None 14 20 18 12 9 14 12 10
90
European Integration Views x Local Election Party SupportBase: All Voters
Total
Local Election Party Support
Fine Gael LabourFianna
FáilSinn Féin
Green Party
All Indep./ Others
Soc. P./PBPA
% % % % % % % %
In favour of further European integration
47 58 56 46 36 41 43 32
Against further European integration
40 31 32 41 50 30 45 57
Don’t know 13 12 11 13 14 29 12 11
Q.17 Are you in favour of, or against, further European integration?
91
Same Sex Marriage Views x Local Party SupportBase: All Voters
Total
Local Election Party Support
Fine Gael LabourFianna
FáilSinn Féin
Green Party
All Indep./ Others
Soc. P./PBPA
% % % % % % % %
Yes – in favour of same sex marriage 69 68 75 57 75 81 73 75
No – against same sex marriage 21 23 16 29 17 8 18 20
Don’t know 10 10 9 14 8 10 9 4
Q.18
As you probably know, in 2010 Irish law was changed to allow for full civil partnership between same sex couples. Since then, a decision has been taken to hold a referendum in 2015 on whether the law should be changed to allow for full marriage for same sex couples, with all of the legal entitlements that are enjoyed by married couples. If such a referendum was held today, would you vote yes in favour of same sex marriage or no against same sex marriage?
92
Local ElectionInterpretation & Analysis
93
Interpretation & Analysis
Typically, voters have used Local Government Elections as an opportunity to register their dissatisfaction with the Government of the day with, for example, Independent candidates often performing more strongly than they would in a General Election.
The common wisdom would therefore be that the share of vote registered by parties in such Local Elections are not necessarily indicative of how those same parties are likely to perform in the subsequent General Election.
Notwithstanding this, the parties will continue to leverage the Locals as a means of blooding new candidates for the next General Election.
In the 2009 Local Elections, Fine Gael won 32% of the first preference vote, emerging not only as the biggest party on the day, but also realising a significant seat bonus, winning 39% (340) of all seats on their 32% share of the vote.
Based on this election’s exit poll figures, Fine Gael’s Local Government vote is likely to decline to in or around 24%. Assuming no significant seat bonus, on the basis that both Government parties are ‘on the backfoot’ from the electorate’s perspective, the main coalition party stands to win in or around 220 seats, out of the total 949 being contested.
The Labour Party, meanwhile, is set to suffer a circa 50% decline in the share of the local election vote it garnered in 2009. These figures would yield roughly 65 local council seats, compared to the 132 it won five years ago.
94
Interpretation & Analysis
The big winners in the 2014 Locals are undoubtedly Sinn Féin and Independent candidates. From a baseline of just 7% of the vote in 2009, equating to just 6% of all seats won in that election, Sinn Féin will have captured approximately 16% of the popular local Government Election vote by the time all counts are tallied at the end of Saturday, 24th May.
In terms of seat allocation, this should see the party increase its haul from just over 50 seats in 2009 to as many as 150 this year.
Meanwhile, the number of Independent candidate councillors sitting on local authorities around the country is likely to settle in at between 250 and 300 seats. In fact, the Independent bloc may well be the largest across the country, shattering the status quo enjoyed by mainstream parties in the local Government realm since the foundation of the State.
Finally, in 2009, Fianna Fáil support was in decline, and they were disappointed with the 25% of Local Election first preferences they won then.
Fast forward to May 2014, and the party is beginning to recover from its disastrous 2011 General Election result of just 17% of first preferences.
In practical terms, the Soldiers of Destiny have come close at 22% to matching their 2009 Local Election result in today’s poll and, given the fact that the number of local election seats being contested has increased from 883 five years ago to 949 today, the party is set to more or less match the tally of 218 seats it won last time out.
95
Interpretation & Analysis
● xxx
European Election 2014National Picture
96
First Preference Party Vote: European ElectionsBase: All Voters
22
6
22
17
6
27
3
Fine Gael
Labour
Fianna Fáil
Sinn Féin
Green Party
All Indep./Others
Soc.P/PBPA
First Preference
Vote%
Gender Age Class
MaleFemal
e18-24 25-34 35-49 50+ ABC1 C2DE F
% % % % % % % % %
23 21 18 22 22 23 24 18 40
5 6 3 4 5 7 6 6 1
22 22 26 18 20 25 21 22 28
19 16 19 22 17 15 13 24 8
6 6 4 6 8 5 10 3 2
24 29 30 28 27 25 27 27 21
3 4 3 3 4 3 4 3 -
Q.1The candidates for election in the European Parliament Election are listed on this ballot paper. Please mark the ballot paper giving your order of preference as you have just voted.
97
First Preference Party Vote: European ElectionsBase: All Voters
22
6
22
17
6
27
3
Fine Gael
Labour
Fianna Fáil
Sinn Féin
Green Party
All Indep./Others
Soc.P/PBPA
% First Preference
Vote
RegionLocal Election Exit Poll Party Support – First
Preference
DublinRestLeins
Munster
Conn/ Ulster
Fine Gael
Lab-our
FiannaFáil
Sinn Féin
GreenParty
All Indep/Others
Soc.P./PBPA
% % % % % % % % % % %
14 27 25 22 65 15 9 4 5 11 2
8 6 5 3 3 41 2 1 6 4 4
12 22 32 21 11 12 65 5 6 12 6
24 16 17 10 2 2 5 77 2 11 15
14 3 6 2 3 12 2 1 67 6 5
28 27 15 43 16 19 16 12 15 55 68
14 - - - 0 3 1 2 3 9 51
Q.1The candidates for election in the European Parliament Election are listed on this ballot paper. Please mark the ballot paper giving your order of preference as you have just voted.
98
European Elections First Preference Vote Versus 2011 General ElectionBase: All Voters
2014 EuropeanElection Exit
Poll Total
2011 General Election First Preference
Fine Gael
LabourFianna
FáilSinn Féin
Green Party
Indepen-dent/ Others
SP/PBPDon’t Know
Did not vote
% % % % % % % % %
Fine Gael 22 46 10 7 4 2 8 5 25 17
Labour Party 6 4 20 2 1 5 5 3 6 6
Fianna Fáil 22 12 9 62 6 3 15 3 24 20
Sinn Féin 17 8 20 11 71 4 11 14 15 19
Green Party 6 6 11 3 1 70 5 4 6 6
All Independent/Others
27 25 30 16 17 16 56 71 25 32
Socialist Party/People Before Profit Alliance
3 2 7 1 3 3 11 54 3 4
Q.1The candidates for election in the European Parliament Election are listed on this ballot paper. Please mark the ballot paper giving your order of preference as you have just voted.
99
Future General Election Voting Intention x European Election Party SupportBase: All Voters
Q.14And to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote if a General Election were held tomorrow?
Future GE Support Total
European Election Party Support
Fine Gael Labour Fianna Fáil Sinn FéinGreen Party
All Indep./ Others
Soc. P./PBPA
% % % % % % % %
Fine Gael 21 65 10 9 2 18 10 3
Labour Party 5 2 48 2 1 10 3 4
Fianna Fáil 19 6 6 60 4 5 10 3
Sinn Féin 18 2 5 4 74 4 12 15
Green Party 3 0 2 1 1 33 1 1
All Independent/Others 22 11 16 11 11 17 50 67
Socialist Party/ People Before Profit Alliance
3 0 2 1 2 0 8 41
Don’t know 12 14 13 13 6 13 14 7
Would not vote 0 0 - 0 1 - 0 -
100
European Election 1st Preference Party x Satisfaction with GovernmentBase: All Voters
Q.11 Overall, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country?
European Election Party Support
TotalFine Gael
LabourFianna
FáilSinnFéin
Green Party
All Independent
/ Others
Socialist Party / People
Before Profit Alliance
Satisfied with the way the government is running the country
26 61 36 17 6 36 15 8
Dissatisfied with the way the government is running the country
68 33 56 79 91 55 80 91
Don’t know 5 6 8 5 3 9 5 1
101
European Election 1st Preference Party x View of EconomyBase: All Voters
Q.12Thinking about the economy in Ireland in the past 12 months, would you say that it has been getting better, getting worse, or staying the same?
Total
European Election Party Support
Fine Gael
LabourFianna
FáilSinnFéin
Green Party
All Independent
/ Others
Socialist Party / People
Before Profit Alliance
The economy in Ireland in the past 12 months has been getting better
34 57 52 27 19 55 23 25
The economy in Ireland in the past 12 months has stayed the same
36 32 30 39 35 28 39 40
The economy in Ireland in the past 12 months has been getting worse
30 10 18 35 46 17 38 35
102
European Election 1st Preference Party x Household Financial SituationBase: All Voters
Q.13Thinking about the financial situation of your household in the past 12 months, would you say that it has been getting better, getting worse, or staying the same?
Total
European Election Party Support
Fine Gael
LabourFianna
FáilSinnFéin
Green Party
All Independent
/ Others
Socialist Party / People
Before Profit Alliance
% % % % % % % %
The financial situation of your household in the past 12 months has been getting better
11 22 11 7 7 19 6 7
The financial situation of your household in the past 12 months has stayed the same
46 54 52 47 33 44 44 40
The financial situation of your household in the past 12 months has been getting worse
43 24 36 45 61 37 50 53
103
Reason for Vote x European Election 1st Preference PartyBase: Voters
Q.2Please tell me which one of the following was the main reason you decided to give your first preference vote to that candidate in the European Parliament elections?
Main Reason for Preference Total
European Election Party Support
Fine Gael LabourFianna
FáilSinn Féin
Green Party
All Indep./ Others
Soc. Party/People Before Profit
% % % % % % % %
The personality or qualities of the candidate 40 42 35 46 28 36 43 21
The party of the candidate 30 36 42 35 40 23 12 17
The policies of the candidate 22 14 16 14 24 36 34 51
The candidate’s party leader 2 2 3 2 3 2 1 5
None of these 5 4 3 3 5 4 7 5
Don’t know 1 1 1 1 0 1 2 1
104
Type of Representation Wanted x European Election 1st
Preference PartyBase: All Voters
Q.3In the European Elections, in the case of the statements below, please tell me whether each one was important in deciding who to vote for, or not?
Factors of Importance Total
European Election Party Support
Fine Gael
LabourFianna
FáilSinn Féin
Green Party
All Indep./ Others
Soc. Party/People Before Profit
% % % % % % % %
I wanted a candidate who
would represent my views on local issues
Important 89 85 92 90 92 86 89 90
Not important 10 14 8 8 8 13 9 7
Don’t know 1 1 - 2 0 1 1 2
I wanted to protest against the Government and its policies
Important 53 29 28 51 81 39 66 72
Not important 45 69 71 46 17 59 33 25
Don’t know 2 2 1 3 2 2 2 4
105
Influencing Factors x European Election 1st Preference PartyBase: All Voters
Factors of Influence Total
European Election Party Support
Fine Gael LabourFianna
FáilSinn Féin
Green Party
All Indep./ Others
Soc. Party/People Before Profit
% % % % % % % %
The handling of controversies surrounding the Gardaí, and the resignation of Alan Shatter as Minister for Justice
32 18 23 33 43 26 39 33
The announcement of measures to support First Time House Buyers
26 23 19 23 32 16 29 18
The arrest and questioning of Gerry Adams 22 17 16 21 30 21 22 17
The exit of Ireland from the Troika Bailout 33 34 33 26 35 28 36 32
The forthcoming introduction of water charges
52 28 34 52 75 35 65 82
Reduced unemployment figures 44 43 47 38 55 32 44 40
The removal of some discretionary medical cards
53 32 41 55 75 39 61 74
The introduction of a Property Tax 51 28 34 51 76 35 63 72
None 23 32 26 27 11 35 17 7
Q.4 Please tell me whether any of the following influenced how you voted in the European election, or not?
106
Coalition Preferences x European Election SupportBase: All Voters
Q.15 Which of the following coalitions would you like to see following the next General Election?
Preferred Coalition Total
European Election Party Support
Fine Gael LabourFianna
FáilSinn Féin
Green Party
All Indep./ Others
Soc. P./PBPA
% % % % % % % %
Fine Gael and Labour 18 46 43 8 2 20 9 8
Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil 15 20 9 29 4 15 10 6
Fine Gael and Sinn Féin 4 5 2 3 7 2 3 2
Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil 15 4 5 20 35 5 11 9
Sinn Féin, Labour, Greens and other left wing parties and independents
12 3 12 3 27 18 17 31
Other 13 6 12 14 13 20 17 26
Don’t know 24 18 19 25 15 24 33 21
Would not vote 1 1 - 0 0 0 1 1
107
Replacement of Leader x European Election SupportBase: All Voters
Q.16Which, if any, of the following do you feel should be replaced as the leader of their party over the next three months or so?
Leaders Feel Should be Replaced
Total
European Election Party Support
Fine Gael LabourFianna
FáilSinn Féin
Green Party
All Indep./ Others
Soc. P./PBPA
% % % % % % % %
Enda Kenny as leader of Fine Gael 35 14 26 38 55 28 39 43
Micheál Martin as leader of FiannaFáil
22 19 21 20 29 22 22 24
Eamon Gilmore as leader of the Labour Party
44 27 41 47 59 37 47 49
Gerry Adams as leader of Sinn Féin 34 43 39 35 19 36 34 27
Eamon Ryan as leader of the Green Party
10 8 9 9 14 6 12 15
Don’t know 10 11 9 8 7 10 13 11
None 14 22 19 12 8 19 12 11
108
European Integration Views x European Election Party SupportBase: All Voters
Total
European Election Party Support
Fine Gael LabourFianna
FáilSinn Féin
Green Party
All Indep./ Others
Soc. P./PBPA
% % % % % % % %
In favour of further European integration
47 58 55 46 35 61 40 35
Against further European integration
40 29 34 42 51 25 46 50
Don’t know 13 13 11 12 13 14 14 15
Q.17 Are you in favour of, or against, further European integration?
109
Same Sex Marriage Views x European Party SupportBase: All Voters
Total
European Election Party Support
Fine Gael LabourFianna
FáilSinn Féin
Green Party
All Indep./ Others
Soc. P./PBPA
% % % % % % % %
Yes – in favour of same sex marriage 69 66 81 56 74 84 73 80
No – against same sex marriage 21 23 11 30 18 10 18 15
Don’t know 10 12 8 14 8 6 9 4
Q.18
As you probably know, in 2010 Irish law was changed to allow for full civil partnership between same sex couples. Since then, a decision has been taken to hold a referendum in 2015 on whether the law should be changed to allow for full marriage for same sex couples, with all of the legal entitlements that are enjoyed by married couples. If such a referendum was held today, would you vote yes in favour of same sex marriage or no against same sex marriage?
110
Questionnaires
111
Dublin Constituency questionnaire
112
Dublin Constituency questionnaire
113
Dublin Constituency questionnaire
114
Dublin Constituency questionnaire
115
Midlands-North-West Constituency questionnaire
116
Midlands-North-West Constituency questionnaire
117
Midlands-North-West Constituency questionnaire
118
Midlands-North-West Constituency questionnaire
119
South Constituency questionnaire
120
South Constituency questionnaire
121
South Constituency questionnaire
122
South Constituency questionnaire
123
Sampling Points
124
Dublin sampling points
Dublin Dublin
St. Gabriel's NS, Cowper St., Dublin 7 Sandyford Community Centre
O'Connell's Secondary School, North Richmond St. (Off NCR) Dublin 1 Combined Clubs Hall, Balbriggan
1. Virgin Mary NS, Shangan Road, Dublin 9 Scoil Mhuire, Blakestown Road
Our Lady of Consolation NS, Collins Avenue East, Donneycarney, Dublin 5 Scoil Mhuire, Blakestown Road
Christ the King NS, Annaly Road, Cabra, Dublin 7 Scoil Bhríde Boys NS, Blanchardstown
Belgrove Junior Boys NS, Seafield Road, Clontarf, Dublin 3 Church of Ireland NS, Main Street, Castleknock
St. Patrick's Boys NS, Milbourne Avenue, Drumcondra Road, Dublin 9 St. Margaret's N.S. St. Margaret's
St. Finian's NS, Glenties Park, Rivermount, Finglas South, Dublin 11 St. Nicholas of Myra Hall, Kinsaley
St. Benedict's Resource Centre, St. Mary's Road North, East Wall, Dublin 3 Pope John Paul NS, Inbhir Ide Drive, Malahide
Gaelscoil Cholmcille, Coolock Lane (behind Astro Park) Dublin 17 Skerries Community Centre
Sean O'Casey Community Centre, St. Mary's Road North, East Wall, Dublin 3 Scoil Drimnagh, Feltrim Road, Swords
St. Joseph's NS, Macroom Road, Dublin 17 Tyrellstown Community Centre, Holbstown Road, Tyrellstown
Larkhill Boys School, Glenann Road, Dublin 9 Archbishop Ryan Senior NS, Foxdene, Lucan South
Crumlin College VEC, Crumlin Road, Dublin 12 St Peter The Apostle N.S. Neilstown Road
De la Salle Boys National School, Ballyfermot Road, Dublin 10 Scoil Carmel, Firhouse Road
St. Gabriel's Primary School, Ballyfermot Road, Dublin 10 Scoil Aine Naofa, Newcastle Road, Lucan
Ringsend Girls NS, Cambridge Road, Dublin 4 Lucan Educate Together N.S.
1. Ballsbridge College, Shelbourne Road, Dublin 4 Palmerstown Boys N.S. The Oval, Palmerstown
2. St. Mary's NS, Belmont Avenue, Donnybrook, Dublin 4 St. Mary's N.s. Grange Road, Rathfarnham
Beechwood Avenue Community Centre, Mountainview Road, Dublin 6 St. Thomas Junior N.S. Fortunestown Road
2. DIT Admin Building, Rathmines House, 143-149 Lower Rathmines Road, Dublin 6 Kilnamanagh National School, Treepark Road, Kilnamanagh
Presentation Primary School, Terenure Road West, Dublin 6W Springfield N.S. Maplewood Road
Scout Hall, St. Agnes Church Ground, Crumlin Village, Dublin 12 Bishop Shanahan N.S. Orwell Road, Templeogue
St. Colmcilles NS St. Lawrence's NS
Carysfort NS, Convent Road, Blackrock New Trinity Comprehensive School, Ballymun Road, Dublin 9
Good Shepherd NS Scoil Catriona, 59 Baggot St Lower, Dublin 2.
Harold Boy NS, Patrick St. St. Clare's NS, Harold's Cross Road, Dublin 6W
Dominican NS Scoil Mhuire N.S., Tuckets Lane, Howth, Dublin 13
Hollypark NS St Helen's N.S., Limetree Avenue, Portmarnock
Glencullen NS Scoil Mhuire, Glenmore, Ballyboden
Rathmichael NS, Shankill St Pius X N.S., Fortfield Park, Terenure, Dublin 6
125
Midlands-North-West sampling points
Midlands-North-West Midlands-North-West
Scoil Einde, Dr. Mannix Road Convent NS, Church Avenue, Portlaoise
Presentation Infants NS Newcastle Road Ballinalee National School
Scoil Bhríde, Oldtown, Sallins Road, Naas Scoil Mhuire NS, Kells
Aghards NS Castlejordan Community Centre
Scoil Bhríde, Green lane Edenderry Library
Derrinturn NS Tang Community School
Scoil Mhuire Junior School, Ballymany Multyfarnham NS
Patrician Primary School Cappataggle NS, Cappataggle, Ballinasloe, Co. Galway
St. Fintans Hall, Mountrath Carrowbeg NS, Liscananown
Drogheda Borough Council Office Fair St. Drogheda Gurteen NS, Cappalusk
Dunleer NS, Dunleer, Co. Louth Doire Glinne SN, Letterfore, Oughterard
Tenure NS, Mulany, Drogheda Clontuskert NS
Ashbourne Comminity Centre Askill Community Centre, Gubacreeny
Ratoath Senior National School Naíonra Thuas Mhic Eadraigh, Baile Óbha
Duleek Boys NS Derrynabrack NS, Cloontia
Scoil Eoin Phoil, Arden Dysart NS
Clara Boys NS, ClaraRunnamote NS, Lisnaglen, Cloonygormican, Co. Roscommon
Cornamaddy NS, Moydrum Sooey Community Centre, Ballynakill, Co. Sligo
Baile Chlair SN, an Carn Mor, Baile Chlair, Cheatrú an Bhrúnaigh
Tunnyduff NS
Mountbellew NS, Mountbellew Laghy NS
Carnanool NS Craigstown NS
Scoil Iosa NS, Ballyhaunis Cashel National School, Glencolmcille, Co. Donegal
Kilglass NS Scout Hall, York St., Castleblayney
Ballyconnell Central NS, Ballyconnell, Co. Cavan Batterstown N.S. Dunboyne
Gort an Choirce SN Cooneal N.S., Ballysakeery
MaChaire Rabhtaigh NS Manorhamilton Community Centre
Staplestown NS Rathcormac National School, Drumcliff, Co. Sligo
Timahoe Community Hall, Timahoe Duleek Boys NS
126
South sampling points
South Sampling Points
Social & Resource Centre, 61/62 Roches Buildings, Blackpool
Greenmount NS, Greenmount
St. Patrick's NS, Gardener's Hill
Scoil Mhuire Bonrian Convent School, Boherboy Road, Tivoli
Castleconnell NS
St. Brigid's National School, Singland
St. John of God's NS
Sixmilebridge NS
Clonlara NS
Scoil Ghobnatan, Mallow
Bandon GAA
Carrigaline Community Complex
Ballynora NS
Coolmoohan Community Centre
St. Colman's NS, Cloyne
Christian Brothers Primary, Midleton
Holy Family NS Balloonagh Tralee
Scoil an Ghleanna, Baile ui She, Ballycaneen
Patrickswell NS
Roxborough NS
Ballina NS
Pon Road Community Centre
Leighlinbridge NS
Castlecomer Convent Primary School
St. Senann's School
St. John's Road School
St. Andrew's NS Bray
Enniskerry NS
Kilcoole NS
Ballyvaughan NS
Scariff National School
Coachford NS
South Sampling Points
Lower Glanmire NS (New Inn)
Watergrasshill NS
Scoil Naisunta Baile Mhic Íre
Lisgoold Community Centre, Lisgoold, Co. Cork
Lissagriffin NS, Crookhaven
Knockanes NS, Brewsterfield
Killury NS, Causeway
Kilorglin NS
Caherelly NS
Aragh NS
Ballycahill
Scoil Teampall Toinne
Golden NS
St. Saviour's NS, Ballybeg
Nurney NS
St Canices Central National School, Kilkenny City
Strangmill NS
Scoil Chroí Ró Naofa (Ballymurn NS)
Ballyhack NS, Arthurstown
Glynn NS
Churchill NS
St. Paul’s Boys N.S. Lisduggan
CBS, Stephen Street, Kilkenny City
Callan Parish Hall, Callan Town
Clonakilty
Patrician Hall Ballinascarthy