Rozinkina Inna, Kukanova Evgenia, Revokatova Anastasia , & Muravev Anatoly, Glebova Ekaterina
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Transcript of Rozinkina Inna, Kukanova Evgenia, Revokatova Anastasia , & Muravev Anatoly, Glebova Ekaterina
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Rozinkina Inna, Kukanova Evgenia, Revokatova Anastasia, &Muravev Anatoly, Glebova Ekaterina
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SubjectSubject
Large-scale approach (COST-733) Microclimatic analysis Verification Conclusions
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Regions of meteo-support
20.04.23
3
Coastal cluster (Olympic Park)
Mountain Cluster (Krasnaya Polyana)
Sochi
Krasnaya polyana
In mountain Cluster all venues are on the slopes
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Motivation:Motivation:
Forecasting for Mountain cluster based on microclimatic analysis methods and classification of large-scale processesRecommendations for forecasters
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Choice of classification(period 1/12/2012 – 20/03/2013)
Project COST-733 - “Harmonisation and Applications of Weather Type Classifications for European regions“
Weusthoff T: 2011,Weather Type Classification at MeteoSwiss – Introduction of new automatic classifications schemes, Arbeitsberichte der MeteoSchweiz, vol. 235, 46 p
Amount of days which couldn’t be ranged to a certain classhttp://geo23.geo.uni-augsburg.de/cost733wiki
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GWT27: 27 circulation types
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The most often types:
1, 4, 14, 16, 17, 23, 24, 26 № 4
Period: 1.12.2012-20.03.2013
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Weather types in different monthsWeather types in different months
Amount of days with different weather types in February
0
2
46
8
10
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27
Amount of days with different weather types in March
0
2
4
6
8
10
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27
Amount of days with different weather types in January
02
46
810
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27
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TYPE TYPE №4№4
• Precipitation under type 4 were 14 times (from 21)• The heaviest precipitation during this winter were
observed under 4 type• Weather type 4 was observed often then others
• Periphery of cyclone.• Atmospheric front alter
direction because of the mountains.
• Front can stop between mountains and does not change location during several days
• When it is type 4, it is 50% that heavy precipitation
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Real example of type №4March, 13Precipitation - 40 mm/day COSMO-Ru2 forecast
Cold flux from the north -> intensification of atmospheric fronts -> interaction with mountains -> low speed -> fronts stop in the valley -> heavy precipitation
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Precipitation and weather types GWT_27
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Weather types withoutwithout heavy precipitation (<10mm): 2,6,8,10,11,12,13,18,22,27
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Weather types withwith heavy precipitation (>10mm):1,4,7,9,14,16,17,19,25
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Coastal (sea) air temperature Continental air temperature
Deference (gradient) between continental and Deference (gradient) between continental and coastal temperature coastal temperature
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Precipitation, sum of 12 hours, mm
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
мм
Dependence of precipitation on sea Dependence of precipitation on sea and continental temperature differenceand continental temperature difference
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Additional investigations of COST-733
Program software from http://cost733.met.no/ was used for Europe and Western Siberia in order to:- obtain new types of circulation
- find out how discrimination to different types (for temperature and precipitation) statistically significant. How temperature and precipitation distribution under weather type differ from mean values for whole period (1957-2013).
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Typification of large-scale processes by k-mean distance method
Period: December – March, resolution 1.5x1.5 degrees
01.09.1957 – 31.08.2002 ERA-4001.09.2002 – 31.03.2013 ERA Interim
Amount of weather type – 20
Domain of typification takes into account main synoptic processes
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Calculation results• Set of circulation
types (map of ground pressure)
• List of dates for whole period (1957-2013) with weather types (from 1 to 20)
Inter annual frequency of different types doesn’t show significant trends for this period
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Discrimination of different weather typesHow distribution of temperature and precipitation under different weather types (20) differ from mean values during period (1957-2013)?
Statistical criterion of Kolmogorov-Smirnov shows how different two data distributions from each other
We found out that for Sochi region only 4 types differ from “climate” in terms of precipitation (there is a tendency to dry or wet weather). Under others 16 types precipitations with big variety of intensity can be observed
11 types differ from “climate” in terms of temperature
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Microclimatic characteristics identified Microclimatic characteristics identified by observations of SOCHI 2014 networkby observations of SOCHI 2014 network
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460 - ski-jump, 628 м; 59 – bobsleigh, 701 м; 58 – bobsleigh, 835 м; 53 – snowboard, 1027 м; 62 – biathlon stadium, 1471 м
Г. АибгаMt. Aibga
Krasnaya Polyana
Black sea
Mt. Aibga
Krasnaya PolyanaKrasnaya Polyana
7 АМS (at Olympic objects): 20 Feb. – 20 March 2 network meteo station (Mt. Aibga , Krasnaya Polyana): 1 Dec.-20 March
South-East
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1 – ski centre «Rosa Hutor»; 2 – Extreme-park – «Rosa Hutor»;3 – bobsleigh centre; 4 – ski-jump; 5 – Complex for biathlon and cross-
country skiing
Valley is protected from the large-scale wind streams, the height of venues (800 – 1500 m) are close to the top of cloudinessThe resolution of COSMO-2 is not sufficient for reproducing the local values of critical parameters - the additional techniques are necessary
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,
1471 m
1027 m
835 m
701 m628 m
H
2 mm
- Heights of stations
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Ski-jump,
628 м
Bobsleigh,
701 м
Bobsleigh, 835 м
Snowboard,
1027
biathlon
stadium,
1471 м
Ski-jump, 628 m - 0,86 0,85 0,80 0,75
Bobsleigh, 701 m 0,86 - 0,95 0.91 0,82
Bobsleigh, 835 m 0,85 0,95 - 0,91 0,82
Snowboard 1027 m0,80 0.91 0,91 - 0,81
biathlon stadium,
1471 m
0,75 0,82 0,82 0,81 -
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PRECIPITATION INTENSITYPRECIPITATION INTENSITYStations codes:460 460 - ski-jump, 628 m; 5959 – bobsleigh, 701 m; 5858 – bobsleigh, 835 m; 5353 – snowboard, 1027 m; 6262 – biathlon stadium, 1471 m3110731107 – Krasnaya Polyana37109 37109 – Mt. Aibga
mmmm
20 Feb. – 20 March
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Features of precipitation regimes at different points
Station H, mGeographic
features
Amounts feb –march
2013Features
Krasnaya Polyana
538 valley 217Low
correlation of amounts
ski-jump, 628 S - exp 213
bobsleigh 701 S - exp 219
bobsleigh 835 S - exp 248
snowboard 1027 S - exp 241
biathlon stadium
1471 N - exp 207Slightly
less
Mt. Aibga 2225 S – exp, top 79
Significantly less
Krasnaya PolyanaKrasnaya Polyana
Mt. Aibga
Krasnaya Polyana
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ASSESSMENT OF COSMO-RU2 PRECIPITATION FORECASTASSESSMENT OF COSMO-RU2 PRECIPITATION FORECAST
From 20 Feb to 20 March 2013
00 and 06 model runs (will be used by synoptic in Sochi)
5 АМS и 2 network stations
Only 3 cases when forecast was not successful. (2 times model predicted precipitation, but it was not, 1 time precipitation was not predicted but was observed).
Intensity of precipitation is overestimated by 1,5 – 2 times at 5 days of this period
High quality of COSMO-Ru2 precipitation forecast
Tendency to the overestimation
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Wind direction at Olympic objectsWind direction at Olympic objects
ski-jump, 628 м
bobsleigh, 701 м
bobsleigh, 835 мsnowboard, 1027 м
ski-jump, 628 м
ski-jump, 800 м
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Ski-jump,
628 м
Bobsle
igh,
701 м
Ski-
jump,
800 м
Bobsle
igh,
835 м
Snowboard,
1027 м
Freestyle,
1077м
Biathlon
stadium,
1471 м
Ski-jump, 628 м - 0.76 0.92 0.79 0.42 0.33 0.31
Bobsleigh, 701 м 0.76 - 0.82 0.99 0.38 0.32 0.18Ski-jump, 800 м 0.92 0.82 - 0.86 0.38 0.31 0.2
Bobsleigh, 835 м 0.79 0.99 0.86 - 0.4 0.34 0.2Snowboard, 1027 м 0.42 0.38 0.38 0.4 - 0.2 0.45
Freestyle, 1077м 0.33 0.32 0.31 0.34 0.2 - 0.44
Biathlon stadium,
1471 м0.31 0.18 0.2 0.2 0.45 0.44 -
20 Feb. – 20 March
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< 100 m < 200 m < 500 m < 1000 m >10 000
Ski-jump, 628 m 0 4 11 12 0
Bobsleigh, 701 m 7 12 14 15 4
Ski-jump, 800 m 7 11 15 16 5
Bobsleigh, 835 m 7 12 14 15 4
Snowboard, 1027 m 8 11 12 14 4
Freestyle, 1077 m 7 12 15 16 4
Biathlon stadium,
1471 m9 12 16 18 5
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VERSUS
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Temperature under north windTemperature under north wind
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Temperature assessment under different wind directionsEast South
South-west WestWest
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Temperature
2011-2012 2011-2012 Dec - MarchDec - March
2013, January - 2013, January - MarchMarch
Calculated in Met
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Temperature forecast is more exact under solid cloud cover;diurnal variation is underestimated by 2ос
Temperature forecast with cloudy weather
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WIND assessmentWIND assessment
Wind turned clockwise relatively to the real wind by 70 - 90о
Low speed
Middle speed (5-7 m/s) High speed (>7 m/s)Low speed (<5 m/s)
Wind speed overestimated by 1-2 m/s
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WIND, middle speedWIND, middle speed
Overestimation of wind speed by 4-5 m/s
WIND, high speedWIND, high speed
Overestimation of wind speed by 2-3 m/s
Very stable assessment!
Turned clockwise relatively to the real wind by 30 - 50о
Turned diversely to the real wind by 30 - 40о
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Wind N E SE
night day night day night day
Т2м +0.5оС +2оС +0.5..1оС +2.5оС 0оС +2.5оС
Тd2м -0.5… -1 оС 0…-1 оС -1..-1.5 оС
V -1.5 m/s -0.5 … -1.5 m/s -2…-2.5 m/s
V - 57..67о 0о +60о - 50 …60 о
Wind S SW W night day night day night day
Т2м +0.5оС +2.5оС 0оС +2.5оС +0.5 оС - 1оС
Тd2м -1.5…-2.5 оС -1… -2 оС -0.5… -1 оС
V -2 … 2.5 m/s -1.5 … 2 m/s -1.5 … 2 m/s
V -70о 0о
- 90о …
110о- 60о … 70о - 80о …130о
Practical Proposals of values for Correction of COSMO-Ru2 Forecasts under different wind directions
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Some practical recommendations for forecasters in mountain cluster are obtained:
- Microclimatic properties of wind, visibility and precipitation
- Large- scale Synoptic situations which lead to heavy precipitation
- Estimates of model forecast of temperature, dewpoint temperature, precipitation, wind speed and wind direction
- Corrections coefficients to model forecast with dependence of weather conditions were defined
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1471 m
1027 m
835 m
701 m628 m
HH
Stations codes:460 - ski-jump, 628 m; 59 – bobsleigh, 701 m; 58 – bobsleigh, 835 m; 53 – snowboard, 1027 m; 62 – biathlon stadium, 1471 m; 31107 – Krasnaya Polyana; 37109 – Mt. Aibga
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Tendency to the overestimation of dewpoint temperature by 1-2оС
Model wind is rotated clockwise relatively real wind by 30 - 120о
Successful forecast of pressure with precision up to 1hPа
Other results
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