Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer CIBC World Markets Institutional Investor Conference...

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Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer CIBC World Markets Institutional Investor Conference February 20, 2004

Transcript of Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer CIBC World Markets Institutional Investor Conference...

Page 1: Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer CIBC World Markets Institutional Investor Conference February 20, 2004.

Robert McFarlaneEVP & Chief Financial Officer

CIBC World MarketsInstitutional Investor ConferenceFebruary 20, 2004

Page 2: Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer CIBC World Markets Institutional Investor Conference February 20, 2004.

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This presentation contains forward-looking statements about expected future events and financial and operating results that are subject to risks and uncertainties. TELUS’ actual results, performance, or achievement could differ materially from those expressed or implied by such statements. For additional information on potential risk factors, see TELUS’ Annual Information Form, and other filings with securities commissions in Canada and the United States.

TELUS disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

All dollars in C$ unless otherwise specified.

forward-looking legal disclaimer

Page 3: Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer CIBC World Markets Institutional Investor Conference February 20, 2004.

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about TELUS

Canada’s 2nd largest telco

Executing national growth strategy focused on data, IP & wireless

2004E1: Revenues $7.45 to 7.55B

EBITDA2 $2.95 to 3.05B

Free Cash Flow $1.13 to 1.23B ($3.21 to

$3.49/sh)

Operating segments: wireline: TELUS Communications

wireless: TELUS Mobility

Enterprise value: $16.4B

Daily trading3: 1.0M shares1 Targets announced December 18, 2003

2 Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation & amortization including restructuring and workforce reduction cost

3 Recent 3 month average. TSX: T, T.A; NYSE: TU

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TELUS Communications segment

ILEC: full service in W. Canada and E. Quebec Non-ILEC: data & IP for business in Central Canada

Revenue (2004E)1: $4.8 to 4.85B

EBITDA (2004E)1: $1.975 to 2.025B

Network Access Lines: 4.9M

Total Internet Subscribers: 881K (562K high-speed)

Fibre IP backbone: national

Strategic alliance: Verizon Communications

1 Targets announced December 18, 2003

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TELUS Mobility segment

31.7M: Cdn. PopulationLicensed POPs:

29.5M (93%)Network coverage:

Verizon Wireless & NextelStrategic relationships:

best in North AmericaSpectrum position:

only one in Canada (Nextel in US)iDEN Mike network:

coast to coast 1XCDMA footprint:

$975M to 1.025BEBITDA (2004E)1 :

$2.65 to 2.7BRevenue (2004E)1 :

3.4MSubscribers:

leading Canadian national wireless provider

1 Targets announced December 18, 2003

Page 6: Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer CIBC World Markets Institutional Investor Conference February 20, 2004.

4th quarter & 2003 review

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2003 Q4 review – consolidated

change

significant increase in earnings

1 Excludes restructuring & workforce reduction costs of $16M & $241M for Q4-03 and Q4-02, respectively.

$189M$50M$(139)MNet Income

$0.54

$0.13$(0.41)EPS

1.7%$1.83B$1.79BRevenue

8.3%$699M$645MEBITDA1

Q4-03Q4-02

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2003 Q4 review – consolidated

1 Ratio of capex to total revenues.2 Free Cash Flow defined as: EBITDA less capex, net cash interest, cash taxes, cash dividends;

before restructuring & workforce reduction payments.

$164M$84M$(80)MFCF (before restr. payments)2

1 pt24%23%Capex Intensity1

4.6%$435M$416MCapex

Q4-03 changeQ4-02

strong improvement in free cash flow generation

$250M$30M$(220)MFCF (after restr. payments)

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generating cash flow growth($M)

746

1,136

20032002

Communications

significant in YoY cash flow (EBITDA less capex)

52%

75

456

20032002Mobility

508%

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2003 Q4 review – deleveraging

45 to 50% long term

53.0%56.6%Net Debt : Capital

Q4-03 guidanceQ4-02

significant increase in free cash flow results in deleveraging well ahead of targets

3.0X

(original)

<2.8X (Jul-03)

<2.7X (Dec-03)

2.6X3.3XNet Debt : EBITDA

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2003 Initial Targets 1 Exceeded?

Revenues $7.15B $7.2 to 7.3B

EBITDA 2 $2.84B $2.7 to 2.8B

EPS $0.92 $0.35 to 0.55

Capex $1.25B ~$1.5B

Free Cash Flow $961M $300 to $600M

Net Debt to EBITDA2 2.6X 3.0X 1 Provided on December 16, 2002 Targets Call.

2 Excluding restructuring & workforce reduction costs.

2003 comparison to initial targets – Consolidated

3

Reported EPS included $0.21 benefit from income tax recoveries. 3

4

4 Before restructuring & workforce reduction payments.

exceeded consolidated targets with exception of revenue

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2003 Q4 review – Communications segment

Q4-03 change($M) Q4-02

5.0%1,1821,244Revenue1

revenue softness led to profitability decline despite expense reduction

1 Normalizing to exclude cumulative price cap & asset disposition impacts of $49.7M & $23.2 in Q4-03 & Q4-02, respectively, revenue declined 2.8%.

2 Ratio of capex to total revenues.3 EBITDA less capex.

1.5%509517EBITDA

2 pts25%23%Capex Intensity2

8.7%206226Cash Flow3

4.1%303291Capex

7.2%697750Opex

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2003 Q4 review – Communications segment

underlying EBITDA growth

7% underlying EBITDA growth & 5 pt margin improvement when normalized

cum. growth

509

Q4-03

EBITDA (reported)

($M) Q4-02

(1.5)%517

45%

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Normalized EBITDA Margin

price cap impact

530Norm. EBITDA (Sub-total) 4.7%506

5 pts40%

4.7%-

0.6% - Investment Tax Credits

(11)

11 pension expense 6.8%-

540Norm. EBITDA (Total) 6.8%506

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2003 comparison to initial targets – Communications

2003 Initial Targets1 Met/Exceeded?

Revenues $4.79B $5.0 to 5.05B Non-ILEC

Revenues $555M $575M 2

EBITDA3

$2.03B $2.075 to 2.15B Non-ILEC

EBITDA ~($29)M ~($60)M Capex $893M ~$1.05B High-speed net adds 152K 150 to 175K 1 Provided on December 16, 2002 Targets Call.2 Normalized for asset dispositions, actual 2003 non-ILEC revenues would be $576M.3 Excluding restructuring & workforce reduction costs.

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2003 Q4 review – Mobility segment

($M) Q4-02 Q4-03 change

External Revenue 550 643 17%

EBITDA 129 190 48%

Capex 125 132 5.8%

Capex Intensity1 23% 20% 3 pts

Cash Flow2 3 58 $55M

outstanding results across the board

1 Ratio of capex to total revenues.2 EBITDA less capex.

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2003 Initial Targets Met/Exceeded?

External Revenues $2.36B $2.2 to 2.25B

EBITDA2 $815M $625 to 650M

Capex $360M ~$450M

Wireless net adds 431K 400 to 450K

1 Provided on December 16, 2002 Targets Call.2 Excluding restructuring & workforce reduction costs.

2003 comparison to initial targets – Mobility

1

Mobility met or exceeded all 2003 targets

Page 17: Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer CIBC World Markets Institutional Investor Conference February 20, 2004.

2003 corporate priorities

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2003 TELUS corporate priorities

delivering operational efficiency

improving Central Canada profitability

enhancing wireless performance

improving levels of customer service

strengthening financial position

reaching a collective agreement

Met/exceeded?

2004

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delivering on operational efficiency program

Q4-03 Cumulative1Cum.1

Targets2

5 44 43

- 33 33

Net Staff Reductions 700 7,500 7,3003

Savings ($M) 25 454 4501 Refers to the duration of the Operational Efficiency Program, June 2001 through December 2003.2 As disclosed in management's discussion and analysis in the 2002 TELUS Annual Report.3 800 in 2001; 6,500 in 2002 & 2003.

Actual Results

Customer contact centres closed or consolidated

Communications segment phone store closures

met or exceeded all OEP targets

Page 20: Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer CIBC World Markets Institutional Investor Conference February 20, 2004.

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87

107

20032002Communications EBITDA1 per FTE2

delivering on operational efficiency program($000s)

23%

23% productivity improvement at Communications

1 Excludes restructuring & workforce reduction costs.2 Full-Time Equivalent (FTE) employees – average for the period.

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138 139 141

117133

105

60

38

3120

16

138

123 136

152

(24) (28)(33) (35) (36) (38) (37) (36)

(30)(23)

(18) (15) (6) (6) (2)

Q2-00 Q3-00 Q4-00 Q1-01 Q2-01 Q3-01 Q4-01 Q1-02 Q2-02 Q3-02 Q4-02 Q1-03 Q2-03 Q3-03 Q4-03

Core Revenue Asset Disposition EBITDA

improving Central Canada profitability

9th Consecutive quarter of EBITDA improvement

($M)

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TELUS Mobility Rogers AT&TBCE Wireless

$55

$45$47

Source: Company reports

2002

2003

$57

$47$48

industry ARPU up year over year

Microcell

$40$38

enhancing wireless performance

ARPU

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$630M

EBITDA growth

focused on profitable growth over subscriber growth

enhancing wireless performance

profitable subscriber growth

Source: Company reports. Sum of reported net adds & wireless EBITDA for BCE, Rogers Wireless, Microcell, TELUS Mobility

TELUSMobility

45%

1.4M

subscriber growth

30%

TELUSMobility

2003 industry

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enhancing wireless performance

Mobility’s share of TELUS’ EBITDA & cash flow

Mobility’s rapidly expanding cash flow now represents 29% of consolidated EBITDA and EBITDA less capex

21%

29%

20032002EBITDA

9%

29%

20032002 EBITDA less capex

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BCE AWE

2.7%2.6%

1.6%

2.0%1.8%

1.5% 1.4%

TELUSVerizonSprintPCS

Rogers Nextel

3.2%

CingularMicrocell

3.0%1

2.7%

T-Mobile

TELUS’ low churn rate reflects superior customer service

1 T-Mobile USA Q3-03 YTD churn rates

2003 churn rates

enhancing wireless performance/improving customer service

churn

Page 26: Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer CIBC World Markets Institutional Investor Conference February 20, 2004.

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strengthening financial position

2003 global telecom performanceEBITDA1 % growth rates

AT&T

19

15

98

(3) (3)(4) (5)

(6)

(14)

(18)

1314

2 1

(0.3)

2

Telia FT DT TELUS KPN MTS Telstra Nippon BCE

%

BT PCCWAliant VZBLS SBCSprint

(18)

As at February 10, 2004

Notes: 1 Excluding restructuring TELUS data based on 2002 & 2003 results Other results provided by Bloomberg, company, and analyst reports

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strengthening financial position 2003 credit rating update

Dec.18 – Moody’s rating review for ‘possible upgrade’

Sept. 12 – Moody’s outlook to ‘positive’ from ‘stable’

Aug. 8 – S&P outlook to ‘stable’ from ‘negative’

June 16 – DBRS trend to ‘stable’ from ‘negative’

May 28 – Fitch outlook to ‘stable’ from ‘negative’

April 16 - Moody’s outlook to ‘stable’ from ‘negative’

credit ratings are lagging indicators of strengthened financial position

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2003 summary

Q4 2003: continued excellent Mobility results across the board well

ahead of plan

OEP enabled normalized Communications EBITDA growth despite revenue softness

strong growth in Consolidated EBITDA margins & EPS profitability

YE Dec 2003: met or exceeded all 2003 operational efficiency, profitability,

cash flow & leverage targets

results reflect successful 2003 execution & provide foundation for positive 2004 outlook

Page 29: Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer CIBC World Markets Institutional Investor Conference February 20, 2004.

2004 corporate priorities and targets

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2004 priorities

reaching collective agreement reflecting competitive dynamics

providing superior customer service

revitalizing wireline growth

enhancing North American leadership position in wireless

driving towards a leadership position in high-speed Internet access

continuing benefits from operational efficiency

… leading the way into 2004

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reaching a collective agreement

Union chose binding arbitration Jan. 30, 2004

Next steps

select arbitrator(s), set terms of reference & timeline

Generic terms of reference include:

growth & competitiveness of a company & competitive dynamics of its industry

company’s ability to operate efficiently, improve productivity & meet standards of service

comparability with other industry collective agreements

good labour-management relations

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providing superior customer service

repair answer (611)

CRTC Standard = 80% of calls in 20 seconds or less

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Aug

-02

Sep

-02

Oct

-02

Nov

-02

Dec

-02

Jan-

03

Feb-

03

Mar

-03

Apr

-03

May

-03

Jun-

03

Jul-0

3

Aug

-03

Sep

-03

Oct

-03

Nov

-03

Dec

-03

New trouble management system introduced (LYNX).

Natural Disasters(Fires, Floods, Power Outage)

611Repair Answer

Contact Centres4 to 2

611Repair Answer

Staff22% 9 months exceeding

CRTC Standard

VancouverCable Cut

Jan-

04Fe

b-04

Page 33: Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer CIBC World Markets Institutional Investor Conference February 20, 2004.

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revitalizing wireline growth

TELUS NGN IP applications

TD Bank Financial Group win Oct. 2003

$160M 7-year contract for Managed Data Solution for over 1,200 branches Canada wide

NGN with IP VPN security & enhanced services cannot be matched by competitors

IP-One launched Nov. 2003

first carrier-grade hosted and managed telephony application for business in Canada

full suite of IP-based advanced services integrating voice-mail, e-mail, data & images via secure online Web portal

Page 34: Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer CIBC World Markets Institutional Investor Conference February 20, 2004.

341 EBITDA less capex divided by total revenue

Source: Bloomberg & analyst reports, except TELUS (midpoint of 2004 targets)

enhancing North American leadership position in wireless

cash flow yield leader2004E cash flow yield1 (%) (analyst estimates)

24% 24

17 16

1312

11

18

12

Nextel US Avg VerizonWireless

RogersWireless

CDN Avg Sprint PCS AT&TWireless

CingularTELUSMobility

Page 35: Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer CIBC World Markets Institutional Investor Conference February 20, 2004.

35 2004 targets reflect strong earnings & cash flow growth

2004 consolidated targets summary

1 Includes ~$30M in restructuring & workforce reduction costs. 2 Update to original target of $950M to $1.05B as stated on December 18, 2003 targets call. Current and go-forward definition removes cash dividends paid ($172M and $180M (target) in 2003 & 2004, respectively) and is now: EBITDA less: capex, cash interest, cash taxes, cash restructuring & stock compensation.

2%approx. $1.225BCapex

14 to 36%$1.05 to 1.25EPS

5 to 8%

change

EBITDA1

Revenue

2004 targets

$2.95 to 3.05B

$7.45 to 7.55B

34 to 46%Free Cash Flow2 $1.13 to 1.23B

4 to 6%

> 0.1XNet Debt to EBITDA < 2.5X

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improving free cash flow1

improving FCF leading to significant debt reduction

2001 2002

2003

$(1.14)B

$(140)M

$1.13B to 1.23B

2004E

$845M

1 EBITDA excluding restructuring & workforce reduction costs less cash interest paid, cash taxes, and capital expenditures plus cash interest received and excess stock compensation expense over stock compensation payments.

Page 37: Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer CIBC World Markets Institutional Investor Conference February 20, 2004.

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2004E global telecom performanceprojected Cash Flow (EBITDA - Capex) % growth rates

AT&T

14

1110

75

53 2 2 2

(3)(4)

(11) (11)

(23)

3

11

TELUS Telstra Aliant Telia MTS BCE Nippon FT DT PCCW BLS Sprint

%

BT VZ KPNSBC

As at February 10, 2004

Notes: TELUS data based on 2003 results & mid-point of 2004 targets Other estimates provided by Bloomberg, company and analyst reports

(23)

Page 38: Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer CIBC World Markets Institutional Investor Conference February 20, 2004.

why invest?

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why invest in TELUS?

delivering focused telecom growth strategy in Canada

track record of achieving public targets

leading wireless provider generating significant cash flow

incumbent wireline business generating robust cash flow

Central Canada expansion increasingly profitable

technology leadership in IP

industry-leading earnings & cash flow growth

Page 40: Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer CIBC World Markets Institutional Investor Conference February 20, 2004.

questions?

Page 41: Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer CIBC World Markets Institutional Investor Conference February 20, 2004.

investor relations

1-800-667-4871telus.com [email protected]