Ris client seminar oct 2010

16
An Introduction to Brooks Macdonald Asset Management September 2010 Market Update October 2010

description

 

Transcript of Ris client seminar oct 2010

Page 1: Ris client seminar oct 2010

An Introduction to Brooks Macdonald Asset Management

September 2010

Market Update

October 2010

Page 2: Ris client seminar oct 2010

Market Update – 3 years in Local Currency

Page 3: Ris client seminar oct 2010

Market Update – 3 years adjusted for Sterling

Page 4: Ris client seminar oct 2010

Markets – Conflicting forces

Micro vs Macro

Inflation vs Deflation

Page 5: Ris client seminar oct 2010

Macro Economic Factors

High unemployment

Lower consumer spending

Public sector cuts

Banks deleveraging

US dual deficit

Higher personal taxation

Page 6: Ris client seminar oct 2010

Micro – Company Level Factors

Companies profitableLow debt levelsHigh earnings / dividend yieldsLow equity valuationsCompanies generating lots of cash• Merger & Acquisition (M&A)• Expansion• Higher dividends / share buybacks

Low equity allocations at present

Page 7: Ris client seminar oct 2010

Markets – opportunities

Defensive UK & International dividend paying stocks (value opportunities)

Asia Pacific and Emerging Markets

Gold?

Cash on deposit?

Banking shares?

Page 8: Ris client seminar oct 2010

Markets – Risks

Government Bonds (Gilts)

PIIGS ( Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece & Spain)

Consumer

Inflation – additional Quantitative Easing

Exchange Rates

Page 9: Ris client seminar oct 2010

US Dollar versus Sterling

Page 10: Ris client seminar oct 2010

Little value in Gilts – End of the Bull market in Gilts????

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

UK 10yr Gilt Yield

Page 11: Ris client seminar oct 2010

Value in high yielding equities

0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 5.00% 6.00% 7.00% 8.00%

10yr Gilt Yield

FTSE 100 Index

IG Corporate Bond

Glaxo

BAE Systems

Vodafone

National Grid

Income Yield - Equities v Bonds

Page 12: Ris client seminar oct 2010

Asia can afford to spend

Source: IMF Financial stability report, Apr 09, CEIC, Nomura Global Economics

0

50

100

150

200

Hon

g K

ong

Luxe

mbo

urg

Aus

tralia

Chi

naD

enm

ark

NZ

Cze

ch R

epub

licK

orea

Indo

nesi

aTa

iwan

Finl

and

Slo

vaki

aS

wed

enTh

aila

ndS

witz

erla

ndV

ietn

amM

alay

sia

Irela

ndIc

elan

dS

pain

Pol

and

Net

herla

nds

Phi

lippi

nes

Aus

tria

Can

ada

Ger

man

yH

unga

ryIn

dia

Por

tuga

lFr

ance UK

US

Bel

gium

Gre

ece

Italy

Japa

n

Debt % of GDP Gross public debt-to-GDP ratios in 2010

OECD average

Page 13: Ris client seminar oct 2010

Why Asia Pacific/Emerging Markets?

Increased financial and political stabilityCurrent account surpluses/lower levels of debt (both government and individual)Young populationsGrowth of domestic demand, rather than just export-led economies, and continued growth of middle class/urbanisationDiversified region (e.g. Australia – commodities; Singapore – finance; South Korea – manufacturing)The progression of China from third world to 1st world economy and the benefits for the region as a whole (e.g. tourism in Taiwan)

Page 14: Ris client seminar oct 2010

Asset Allocation range (2004-2010)

BMAM Medium risk

Page 15: Ris client seminar oct 2010

Equity markets to remain volatile whilst market views polarised

Western governments weak

Double dip unlikely, slower growth likely

Outlook

Page 16: Ris client seminar oct 2010

Disclaimer

Brooks Macdonald Asset Management Limited are authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority.

This documentation may contain confidential or legally privileged information that is intended for the addressee only. Any views or opinions presented are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of Brooks Macdonald. If you are not the intended recipient you are hereby notified that any disclosure, copying, distribution or reliance upon the contents of this documentation is strictly prohibited. If you have received this documentation in error, please notify the sender immediately , so that arrangements may be made for its proper delivery.