Richard Pearson NFU Profiting from Sustainability Conference York Dec 2014
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Agriculture Looking For A Sustainable Profit Richard Pearson NFU Regional Director December 2014
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Transcript of Richard Pearson NFU Profiting from Sustainability Conference York Dec 2014
Agriculture Looking For A
Sustainable Profit
Richard Pearson
NFU Regional Director
December 2014
Population Up
Food Consumption Up
Life Expectancy Up
An industry with growing economic
contribution 2
00
0
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9000
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Source: Defa, Agricultural Accounts 2013
£ millionIncreasing economic contribution: Gross
Value Added (GVA)
• Agriculture’s contribution to the
economy as measured by GVA (Gross
Value Added) was £9.2 billion. This
has grown by £2.3 billion in the five
years to 2013 – a 34 per cent
increase.
• At the same time farm output has
grown by 31 per cent, to £25.7
billion.
• An impressive performance
compared with wider economic
picture.
Food and drink exports continues to grow
in 2014
Jan-June 2013
(£ bn)
Jan-June 2014
(£bn)
%
change
Total
Exports 6.2 6.5 4.8
EU 28 4.7 4.8 2.5
Non -EU 1.5 1.7 12
EU% share 75.6 73 -1.7
Non -EU %
share 24.5 26.2 1.7
Trade
balance -12.6 -12 -4.9
Source: Food and Drink Federation (FDF)
£12.8bn
0
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4,000
6,000
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Exports £m
Source: Food and Drink Federation (FDF)
Food and non-alcoholic drink exports (£m)
Future Demand Looks Strong
What Is The Reality On Farm
Price falls across the board
Commodity Prices
Oct 2014
Prices
Prices a
year ago
% change
y-o-y
Dairy (ppl) 30.8 33.0 -6.6%
Deadweight Cattle (p/kg) 349.0 391.3 -10.8%
Deadweight Sheep (p/kg) 355.2 392.1 -9.4%
Deadweight Pigs (p/kg) 152.6 171.9 -11.2%
Feed Wheat (£/t) 111.3 160.5 -30.6%
Potatoes (£/t) 126.5 160.67 -21.3%Source: AHDB/DairyCo/Bpex/Eblex/HGCA/PCL
• 2014 has been the year where across commodities, the industry has
seen falling farmgate prices.
• A combination of global supply and demand factors and continued
intense competition at a retail end has put a downward pressure on
beef, dairy and cereal sectors.
It’s all about volatility….
Basket of Commodities
0.0
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FAO - Food Price Index
UK Feed Wheat
50.0
70.0
90.0
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150.0
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230.00
3 J
an
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Fe
b2
7 M
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un
31
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Oct
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De
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Fe
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pr
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2 J
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Au
g2
4 S
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No
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7 D
ec
28
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1 M
ar
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3 J
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15
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l2
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ug
07
Oct
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ec
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Fe
b2
4 M
ar
05
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6 J
un
28
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l0
8 S
ep
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Oct
01
De
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2 J
an
23
Fe
b0
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pr
17
Ma
y2
8 J
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Au
g2
0 S
ep
01
No
v1
3 D
ec
24
Ja
n0
7 M
ar
18
Ap
r3
0 M
ay
11
Ju
l2
2 A
ug
03
Oct
14
No
v2
6 D
ec
06
Fe
b2
0 M
ar
01
Ma
y1
2 J
un
24
Ju
l0
4 S
ep
16
Oct
27
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v0
8 J
an
19
Fe
b0
2 A
pr
14
Ma
y2
5 J
un
06
Au
g1
7 S
ep
29
Oct
10
De
c2
1 J
an
03
Ma
r1
4 A
pr
26
Ma
y0
7 J
ul
18
Au
g2
9 S
ep
10
No
v2
2 D
ec
02
Fe
b1
6 M
ar
27
Ap
r0
8 J
un
20
Ju
l3
1 A
ug
12
Oct
23
No
v0
4 J
an
15
Fe
b2
9 M
ar
10
Ma
y2
1 J
un
02
Au
g1
3 S
ep
25
Oct
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Yorkshire Region
This Region Has
• 17% of cereal area
• 36% of pig herd
• 18% of cattle herd
• 27% of sheep flock
• Directly employs 41,371 people
• Agri Food Manufacturing base
• Research / Universities / Colleges
• There is no lack of advice to famers.
• Complex challenges ,Conflicting messages
• Farm businesses often resource and time poor
• Low confidence and high risk
• Personal motivation
• Stand still / self sufficiency will fall…
• Research, Innovation, Growth
• Growing home and global demand…
• What potential --- world market player?
• Opportunity…
Nothing is Impossible
