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Richard J. Shinder, Perella Weinberg Partners November 15, 2012
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PRESENTED BY: Richard J. Shinder, Perella Weinberg Partners November 15, 2012 “RUNNING BULLS OR ROARING BEARS: WALL STREET REACTIONS TO THE 2012 ELECTION RESULTS” The National Association of Business Political Action Committees 2012 NABPAC POST-ELECTION CONFERENCE
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The National Association of Business Political Action Committees 2012 NABPAC POST-ELECTION CONFERENCE. “RUNNING BULLS OR ROARING BEARS: WALL STREET REACTIONS TO THE 2012 ELECTION RESULTS”. Richard J. Shinder, Perella Weinberg Partners November 15, 2012. Introduction. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Richard J. Shinder, Perella Weinberg Partners November 15, 2012
PRESENTED BY:
Richard J. Shinder, Perella Weinberg PartnersNovember 15, 2012
“RUNNING BULLS OR ROARING BEARS: WALL STREET REACTIONS TO THE 2012 ELECTION RESULTS”
The National Association of Business Political Action Committees
2012 NABPAC POST-ELECTION CONFERENCE
Introduction
THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 2
o Status quo election outcomeo Center for Responsive Politics estimates that the 2012
election cost US$6 billion – for what?o Obama “mandate” – what’s to come?
o Convincing win, but with lower EV and popular vote count than in 2008
o Republicans hold House while Democrats outperform expectations with Senate gains
o What message has the electorate sent to Washington?o State and local outcomes
o California
Macro Themes
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o Fiscal cliff/national debt/deficitso Economic growth expectationso Employmento Taxeso Regulation
o Generalo Financial Serviceso Energyo Health Care
o Affordable Care Acto Interest rateso Currency risko Business confidenceo Consumer confidenceo M&A activity
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o Fiscal cliffo National debto Budget deficits
Fiscal Issues
Growth and Employment
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o Global economic environmento Fiscal policy impact on growtho American Jobs Act
Taxes and Regulation
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o Taxeso As a % of GDPo Composition of tax baseo Corporateo Personal
o Incomeo Estate
o Dividends and Capital Gainso Business investment
o Regulationo General business regulatory environmento Financial Serviceso Energyo Health Care
o Federal, State and Local
Affordable Care Act
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o Implementationo Taxeso Modifications/Challenges
Currency and Interest Rates
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o Status as reserve currencyo Fed policy vis. fiscal cliffo QE infinity?o Long-run inflation risk
Business/Consumer Confidence
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o Capital investmento M&A activityo Consumer sentimento Foreign investor sentimento Debt reductiono Consumption vs. investmento Corporate cash balances
Near-Term Sector Themes
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o Energyo Health Careo Housing and relatedo Consumero Infrastructure
Intermediate-Term Themes
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o Commoditieso Industrial exportso Business serviceso Consumer luxury
Thank You
THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 12
Richard J. ShinderPartner, Perella Weinberg Partners
767 Fifth AvenueNew York, NY 10154
(212) [email protected]
Richard J. Shinder is a Partner of Perella Weinberg Partners L.P. (“PWP”). The opinions expressed in this presentation are his own and may not be representative of those of PWP.
NABPAC thanks Jake McGuire of The PAC Store for allowing us to use his photographs in this presentation.
