Dr Lai Lai Aung, Assistant Director( Met Service)

Dr Khaing Khaing Soe Assistant Director(Public Health)

Dr Thin Nwe htwe Staff Officer(Agriculture)

Rice Yield And Dangue Haemorrhagic

Fever(DHF) Condition depend upon Climate Data

Background

• Total area 678,500 square KM Latitudes 9.8̊ N - 29.8̊ N, • Longitudes 92.2̊ E - 101.1̊ E. • Lies in the Tropic • 14 Regions & State

Neighbouring Countries • China on the northeast, • Laos on the east, • Thailand on the southeast, • Bangladesh on the west, • India on the west & northwest • the Bay of Bengal to the west & southwest, • Andaman Sea at the South

CHINA INDIA BANGLA DESH LAOS

THAILAND BOB

ANDAMAN SEA

The Climate of Myanmar • lies in the monsoon region of Asia. • roughly divided into three seasons:

– Summer Season (Mar to mid May), – Rainy Season (mid May to Oct), – Winter Season (Nov to Feb)

► the central myanmar area an average

annual rainfall , 30 inches ►coastal region with annual average

rainfall , 200 inhes

Topography: mountainous area to the north, west and eastern parts, low land and deltaic areas and dry zone area in the central Myanmar areas

Population:52 million

4

Net Sown Area

17.70% Fallow Land 0.70%

Culturable Waste Land 7.80%

Reserved Forests 27.50%

Other Forests 21.80%

Other Land 24.60%

Land Utilization in Myanmar (2014-2015)

Number of Stations over the Country

92° 94° 96° 100°

ANDAMAN SEA

N

100 50 0 50 100

THAILAND

CHINA

INDIA

LAOS

6 6

14 14

2 12 12

14 9

16

7

6 8 7

3

4

10

Total:118

Comparison Rice Yield and Txgt50p (days above average temperature) data for Ayeyarwaddy Region( Pathein)

5

15

25

35

45

55

65

75

85

3000

3100

3200

3300

3400

3500

3600

3700

3800

3900

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Rice yield

Txgt50p

adjusted

Correlation=0.74 Rice yield was related with Txgt50p at the year of 1994,00,2002-07,09

Comparison DHF and HWF(Heat wave frequency) data for Ayeyarwaddy Region( Pathein)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Health

HWF

Correlation=0.42 DHF was related with HWF at the year of 98,2002, 2005

Comparison Rice yield and Tx90p(amount of hot days) data for Ayeyarwaddy Region( Pathein)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

3000

3100

3200

3300

3400

3500

3600

3700

3800

3900

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Rice Yield

Tx90p

Correlation=0.80 Rice yield was related with Tx90p most the year except the year 98,03,04,05

Rainfall Comparison between Normal(1961-1990) & Normal(1981-2010)

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

Normal(1961-1990) Normal(1981-2010)

► (81-10) normal was decreasing at the month of May, June, July and August and it was nearly unchanged for the other months.

Minimum Temperature Comparison between Normal(1961-1990) & Normal(1981-2010)

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

22.0

24.0

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

Normal(1961-1990) Normal(1981-2010)

► normal minimum temperature was decreasing from month January to May and September to December. ► It was nearly unchanged at month July and August.

Maximum Temperature Comparison between Normal(1961-1990) & Normal(1981-2010)

27.5

28.5

29.5

30.5

31.5

32.5

33.5

34.5

35.5

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

Normal(1961-1990) Normal(1981-2010)

► normal maximum temperature was increasing nearly all months except February and December. ► It was clear that rate of maximum temperature was higher at the month April,May June , July and August compare to other months.

Results

► Txgt 50p, Tx90p, HWF indices are relevant and beneficial for Rice yield and DHF diseases. ► Normal maximum temperature is also increasing all month of Myanmar except February and December and minimum temperature were decreasing. ► Normal rainfall pattern also shifted, it is decreasing in the month of May, June, July and August and rest of month is nearly unchanged.

• The Ministry of Health and Sports (Formerly, Ministry of Health) is responsible for enhancing the health status of the population through delivering comprehensive health services pertaining to the promotion of good health, the prevention of disease, and the provision of effective treatment and rehabilitation.

• It executes these health services through seven departments: 1. Department of Public Health 2. Department of Medical Services 3. Department of Heath Professional Resource Development and

Management 4. Department of Medical Research 5. Department of Traditional Medicine 6. Department of Food and Drug Administration 7. Department of Sports and Physical Education

Myanmar: Health sector overview

Comparison Health and Txgt50p (days above average temperature) data for Ayeyarwaddy Region( Pathein) correlation=0.63 (98,01,02,05,07)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Health

Txgt50p

adjusted

Comparison DHF and Tx90p(amount of hot days) data for Ayeyarwaddy Region( Pathein) correlation=0.55 (91,93,98,01,02,05,07)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Health

Tx90p

Comparison DHF cases and Txm(mean daily max temp) data for Ayeyarwaddy Region( Pathein) correlation=0.46 (91,93,98,02,05,07)

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

DHF Cases

txm

DHF cases and PRCPTOT (Annual total wet day) (94,97,01,02,07,09)

correlation=0.4

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

DHF Cases

prcptot

Model Summary

a. Predictors: (Constant), Txgt50p, PRCPTOT b. Dependent Variable: DHF

Model R R square Adjusted R Square

Std. Error of the Estimate

0.731 .535 .483 4664.89663

ANOVA

a. Predictors: (Constant), Txgt50p, PRCPTOT b. Dependent Variable: DHF

Model R df Mean Square

F Sig

Regression Residual Total

4.503E8 3.917E8 8.420E8

.2 18 20

2.251E8 2.176E7

10.345 0.001

conclusion

• In this study, we compare Annual DHF cases in Myanmar with Txgt50p (fraction of days with above average temperature), Tx90p (Amount of hot days), Txm (mean daily maxium temperature and PRCPTOT (Annual total wet day).

• We found that increase in days with above average temperature and increase in wet day are associated with increase in DHF cases.

• In Myanmar, mountain areas are cold and previously no DHF case and now increase in temperature in mountain area and more DHF cases are found.

Annual Total Wet-day PR with rice yield

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

3000

3100

3200

3300

3400

3500

3600

3700

3800

3900

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Rice YieldPRCPTOT

No. of heavy rain days (30mm) with rice yield

y = 0.4778x + 27.516

-505101520253035404550

3000

3100

3200

3300

3400

3500

3600

3700

3800

390019

9319

9419

9519

9619

9719

9819

9920

0020

0120

0220

0320

0420

0520

0620

0720

0820

0920

10

Rice Yield

R30mm

Adjusted

Linear (R30mm)

Growing Degree Days with Rice Yield

y = 28.102x + 6115.6

5200

5400

5600

5800

6000

6200

6400

6600

6800

7000

3000

3100

3200

3300

3400

3500

3600

3700

3800

3900

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Rice YieldGDDgrownAdjustedLinear (GDDgrown)

Regression model Model Summary

Model R R Square Adjusted R Square Std. Error of the Estimate 1

.567a .321 .231 224.45052 a. Predictors: (Constant), Growing degree days, Number of heavy rain days

ANOVAb

Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig.

1 Regression 357493.526 2 178746.763 3.548 .055a

Residual 755670.508 15 50378.034

Total 1113164.033 17

a. Predictors: (Constant), Growing degree days, Number of heavy rain days b. Dependent Variable: Rice Yield

Results For paddy production, not only climate data influence but also other factors (eg. Varieties, Soil Types, Fertilizer Application, Crop Management and Pest and Diseases, so on). But the climate data can really influence when the drought have the whole growing season or heavy rain (flood) during the harvesting time, so on. The relationship of climate indices and other crops’ production (maize or pigeon pea), the correlation will be high. And the seasonal data will be beneficial.

Annual mean daily maximum temperature For the year 2099

1961

Annual sum of daily precipitation 2070

2099

To get more accuracy, we need to use much more images and high resolution (30 m and 10 m, 5 m resolution) Predict for drought, flood and cyclone to use in agriculture sector

Thank you!!