ICARDA

11th General Conference of AARINENA12-14 October 2008, Damascus- Syria

Revisiting CWANA Research Priorities and Needs Assessment

K. Shideed, M. Solh, and I. Hamdan

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The Context of Agriculture in NENA and Developing Countries in Dry Areas

Food and feed insecurity Rural poverty (majority of poor are in rural

areas) Natural resources Scarcity/ degradation Declining share of public spending

allocated to agriculture Poor countries are net food importers Farming is the main market for jobs Widening income inequality Increasing food prices

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Dry areas of developing world • Occupy about 3 billion hectares (19% of total global land area),

• Are home to one-third of the global population – over 1.7 billion people.

• About 16% of the population in these areas lives on one dollar a day, particularly in marginalized rainfed areas

The Dry Areas

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Natural Scarcity of Water in Dry Areas

1.1

2.7

5.4

5.6

8

13

20.3

34.5

35

0 10 20 30 40

Middle East & North Africa

South Asia

Western Europe

East Asia & Pacific (& Japan & Koreas)

Sub-Saharan Africa

Europe & Central Asia

North America

Latin America & Caribbean

Australia/New Zealand

Reg

ion

ARWR per capita (1000m3/yr)

Actual Renewable Water Resources (ARWR) per capita

Total renewable water resources withdrawn (%)Total renewable water resources withdrawn (%)

1.4

2.2

3.2

6.2

8

9.4

10.3

25.1

72.7

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Latin America & Caribbean

Sub-Saharan Africa

Australia/New Zealand

Europe & Central Asia

North America

East Asia & Pacific (& Japan & Koreas)

Western Europe

South Asia

Middle East & North Africa

Reg

ion

Percent

Percent of total renewable waterresources withdrawn

Most countries in dry areas are Most countries in dry areas are facing increasing water scarcityfacing increasing water scarcity

MENA is the world’s most MENA is the world’s most water-scarce region water-scarce region

Highest water withdrawn in dry Highest water withdrawn in dry areasareas

Future projections of Future projections of population growth suggest population growth suggest further decrease in per capita further decrease in per capita water availability in dry areas water availability in dry areas (from 1100 m(from 1100 m33/yr to 550 m/yr to 550 m33/yr in /yr in 2050)2050)

Increased competition on waterIncreased competition on water More research investment for More research investment for

efficient, sustainable , and efficient, sustainable , and equitable water use equitable water use

ICARDA Water Poverty Index (WPI) and HDI for non-tropical dry-area countries

Access to water and food in developingcountries and countries in transition

Implications of Water Scarcity on Human Poverty and Access to Food

Water poverty contributes greatly to the low HDI (human poverty) of poor countries in dry areas

Direct relationship between access to water and access to food and feed security

Irrigation accounts for 80-90% of all water used in dry areas

Increasing competition on water is expected to reduce agriculture share to 50% by 2050

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Intensity of public agricultural R&D (Total public agricultural R&D spending as a percentage of

agricultural GDP)

Source: Pardey, P.G., N. Beintema, S. Dehmer, and S. Wood. 2006. Agricultural Research: A Growing Global Divide? IFPRI, Agricultural Science and Technology Indicators Initiative, Washington D.C. August 2006

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Research Intensity in Public Agricultural R&D in Selected CWANA Countries

(Agricultural R&D spending for $100 of Ag GDP) Country Year of Data Research Intensity ($)

Jordan 2003 2.83

Syria 2003 0.53

Ethiopia 2000 0.43

Eritrea 2000 1.70

Sudan 2000 0.17

Tunisia 2002 1.04

Morocco 2002 0.95

Mauritania 2001 0.92

CWANA Region 2000 0.66

Developing world 2000 0.53

Developed world 2000 2.36

Global 2000 0.80

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Educational Attainment of Researchers for Selected CWANA Countries

Education Attainment (%)

Share of Female (%)

Country Year of data

BSc MSc PhD BSc MSc PhD

Jordan 2003 39 28 33 19 17 5

Syria 2003 75 5 20 26 36 5

Ethiopia 2000 49 32 9 14 5 1

Eritrea 2000 59 36 5 2 1 0.2

Sudan 2000 21 46 33 6 26 17

Tunisia 2002 9 21 70 3 6 20

Morocco 2002 11 55 34 28 18 14

Mauritania 2000 36 47 17 3 3 1

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Composition of Ag Research Expenditures, in selected CWANA countries, 2002 (%)

Public Agencies Private EnterprisesCountry Research

InstitutionsHigher

EducationTotal

Jordan 45.8 (58.5) 47.7 (38.1) 93.6 (96.6) 6.4 (3.4)

Syria 83.4 (83.6) 15.8 (15.9) 99.3 (99.6) 0.7 (0.4)

Ethiopia 88.9 (89.0) 10.8 (10.8) 99.8 (99.7) 0.2 (0.3)

Eritrea a 92.7 (71.1) 7.3 (28.9) 100 (100) 00 (00)

Sudan 65.3 (70.2) 26.4 (28.4) 91.7 (98.6) 8.1 (1.4)

Tunisia a 73.6 (73.1) 26.4 (26.9) 100 (100) 00 (00)

Morocco a 63.6 (63.6) 36.4 (36.4) 100 (100) 00 (00)

Mauritania a 91.9 (91.9) 8.1 (8.1) 100 (100) 00 (00)

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Cereal growth rates in CWANA Countries, 1961 – 2002

Production Growth Rates (%)

-0.9

0.5

3

1.6

3.5

0.4

-2.3

-4.7

3.1

0.7

1.4

2.4

1

1.4

3.5

7.6

1

2.6

3.7

7.7

1.2

2.1

9

7.7

-1.1

2.9

-9 -4 1 6

Afghanistan Algeria Egypt

Ethiopia Iran Iraq

Jordan Kazakhstan*

Kyrgyzistan* Lebanon

Libya Mauritania Morocco

Oman Pakistan

Saudi Arabia Somalia Sudan Syria

Tajikistan* Tunisia Turkey

Turkmenistan* Uzbekistan*

Yemen CWANA Region

•Jordan, and Yemen experienced negative growth rates in cereal production over the last four decades

• Syria, Egypt, SA, Pakistan and Iran are the only countries that achieved higher growth rates (above regional average)

Grain gap in 30 CWANA countries (excluding Turkey and Kazakhstan)

Source: World Bank 1993

Major Challenges of Dry Areas

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Methodology of Priority Setting Methodology of Priority Setting (CWANA): 2002 Exercise- 1(CWANA): 2002 Exercise- 1

Brainstorm meetingsBrainstorm meetings

Five brainstorming meetings were organized as follows:Five brainstorming meetings were organized as follows: Central Asia and Caucasus (CAC) sub-region: 20 September Central Asia and Caucasus (CAC) sub-region: 20 September

2001 in Tashkent (Uzbekistan) 2001 in Tashkent (Uzbekistan) Nile Valley and Red Sea (NVRS) sub-region: 27 September Nile Valley and Red Sea (NVRS) sub-region: 27 September

2001 in Cairo (Egypt), 2001 in Cairo (Egypt), West Asia (WA) sub-region: 18-19 November 2001 in Aleppo West Asia (WA) sub-region: 18-19 November 2001 in Aleppo

(Syria) (Syria) North Africa (NA) sub-region: 8-9 January 2002 in Hammamet North Africa (NA) sub-region: 8-9 January 2002 in Hammamet

(Tunisia) (Tunisia) Arabian Peninsula (AP) sub-region: 24 January 2002 in Kuwait Arabian Peninsula (AP) sub-region: 24 January 2002 in Kuwait

City (Kuwait).City (Kuwait). QuestionnaireQuestionnaire

Over 500 questionnaires were distributed. The ratio of Over 500 questionnaires were distributed. The ratio of questionnaires returned to distributed is 67% (340 responses questionnaires returned to distributed is 67% (340 responses received out of 504 distributed). received out of 504 distributed).

Regional ConsultationRegional Consultation

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Methodology of Priority Setting Methodology of Priority Setting (CWANA): 2002 Exercise- 2(CWANA): 2002 Exercise- 2

Regional ConsultationRegional Consultation The regional consultation meeting was structured as follows:The regional consultation meeting was structured as follows:

Plenary sessionsPlenary sessions to set the tone of the meeting, to set the tone of the meeting, provide an overview of current agricultural research provide an overview of current agricultural research priorities in CWANA, and present the APAARI priorities in CWANA, and present the APAARI experience in agricultural research priority setting experience in agricultural research priority setting and the preliminary results of the CWANA survey and the preliminary results of the CWANA survey undertaken in the region.undertaken in the region.

Parallel Parallel sub-regional working groupssub-regional working groups to revisit and to revisit and finalize the agricultural research priorities identified finalize the agricultural research priorities identified during the sub-regional brainstorming meetings.during the sub-regional brainstorming meetings.

A comprehensive analysis of sub-regional priorities, A comprehensive analysis of sub-regional priorities, validated by the respective validated by the respective working groupsworking groups, in order , in order to identify those priorities that are common to to identify those priorities that are common to CWANA region.CWANA region.

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2002 Research Priority: Criteria and Weights (%) Attached in Identifying Priorities

Country Productivity Poverty Alleviation

Resource Conserv.

Food Security

Contribution to Develop.

Sudan 31 19 14 20 16

Morocco 20 20 30 20 10

Libya 50 20 20 10

Egypt 39 15 19 17 12

Total (CWANA)

35 15 16 21 13

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2002 Research Priority Setting: Importance of Agro-ecologies

Agro-ecologies

Importance (%)

High Moderate Low

Drylands 85 7 8

Irrigated 51 10 39

Rangelands 64 29 7

Forest 32 19 49

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Setting Ag. Res Priorities: 2002 Exercise

Item Regional Priorities (in Ranking)

Germplasm Management

Germplasm improvement & biotechnology (1) genetic resources conservation (2) IPM (2)Seed Production (3)

Crops Wheat & Barley (1) Forages, Vegt., Industrial crops, and Legumes (2)Fruit trees, Maize, Potato, and Forest (3)

Animals Small ruminants (1) Cattle (2) Bees & Camel (3)

Socioeconomic & Policy

Marketing, Quality & value addition, and Policies (1) Technology dissemination, IA, and Post harvest (2)

NRM Water & Soils (1) Range (2)

ICARDAContext of Research Priority SettingContext of Research Priority Setting

• Millennium Development Goals

• Millennium Ecosystem Assessment• Global conventions: UNCCD, UNCBD, UNFCCC, IT-PGFRA, and others

• Fourth Report of the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change

• CGIAR System-wide Priorities

• Priorities identified by NARS

• ICARDA’s New Strategic Plan, 2007-2016

• Increased Food Prices and Concerns on Food Security

•Increased Energy Prices

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High Increases in Food pricesHigh Increases in Food prices

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

20

40

60

80

100Corn

Wheat

Rice

Oil (right scale)

Source: Data from FAO 2008 and IMF 2008Source: Data from FAO 2008 and IMF 2008.

Commodity prices (US$/ton)Commodity prices (US$/ton)

New trend?

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Increased Food Prices: World Bank Increased Food Prices: World Bank Weighted Index of Commodity Weighted Index of Commodity

PricesPrices

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

(Mar

ch)

FERTILIZER FOOD GRAINS ENERGY

World Grain Balance: Consumption World Grain Balance: Consumption Exceeds ProductionExceeds Production

Source: USDA

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Mill

ion

Tons

Production Consumption

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003

Ave

rage

ann

ual g

row

th r

ate

(%)

maize

rice

wheat

Source: World Development Report 2008.Source: World Development Report 2008.

Productivity Growth is Declining: Productivity Growth is Declining:

Potential for Increased Food PricesPotential for Increased Food Prices

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ICARDA VisionImproved livelihoods of the resource-poor

in the dry areas

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ICARDA’s Major Research Programs

Biodiversity and Integrated Gene Management

Integrated Water and Land Management

Diversification and Sustainable Intensification of Production Systems

Social, Economic and Policy Research

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ICARDA’s Research Programs, the Millennium Development Goals and CGIAR

Priorities

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The Need for Revisiting Research The Need for Revisiting Research Priorities for NENA Region- 1Priorities for NENA Region- 1

Major national, regional and global developments since Major national, regional and global developments since 20022002

Research priority setting is a key factor in enhancing the Research priority setting is a key factor in enhancing the effectiveness of public investments in agricultural effectiveness of public investments in agricultural science and technology. science and technology.

To this end, promoting research-for-development in To this end, promoting research-for-development in developing countries requires due attention to the developing countries requires due attention to the following:following: Revisiting research priorities of 2002Revisiting research priorities of 2002 Understanding the evolution and identify complementary Understanding the evolution and identify complementary

roles of different research partners, including NARSs, roles of different research partners, including NARSs, ARIs, and CG centers.ARIs, and CG centers.

Conducting ex-ante and ex-post research evaluation for Conducting ex-ante and ex-post research evaluation for accountability and resource allocation purposes to accountability and resource allocation purposes to maximize impact and ensure relevance to poverty-maximize impact and ensure relevance to poverty-targeting.targeting.

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The Need for Revisiting Research Priorities for NENA Region- 2

Revisiting R&D priorities with the aim of factoring the global, regional and national developments that have occurred over the past few years. This includes:

Assess NARS capacity to address emerging research issues (shifting of research focus toward poverty alleviation, NRM,…)

Developing an action plan to implement the priorities (funding, resource allocation)

Harmonizing and integrating the activities of regional and international organizations within AARINENA research priorities (based on comparative advantages)

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AdvantagesAdvantages of A Regional Approach of A Regional Approach

to Research Priority Settingto Research Priority Setting Economies of scale:Economies of scale: A regional approach would enable the development of a A regional approach would enable the development of a

critical mass of researchcritical mass of research that could lead to substantial economies of scale; that could lead to substantial economies of scale;

Synergies and complementaritySynergies and complementarity:: Seeking regional complementarity and Seeking regional complementarity and synergies, synergies, based on NARSs’ comparative advantagebased on NARSs’ comparative advantage, would significantly , would significantly reduce research duplication and would enhance the efficient use of scarce reduce research duplication and would enhance the efficient use of scarce regional resources;regional resources;

Enhanced exchange flowEnhanced exchange flow:: a regional approach would promote the a regional approach would promote the exchange flow among scientists and institutions and would enhance the exchange flow among scientists and institutions and would enhance the sharing of information, methodologies, and experiences;sharing of information, methodologies, and experiences;

Internalizing spillovers (spillins):Internalizing spillovers (spillins): A regional approach to agricultural A regional approach to agricultural research represents a logical and efficient path to internalizing such positive research represents a logical and efficient path to internalizing such positive externalities;externalities;

Enhancing attractiveness of external funds:Enhancing attractiveness of external funds: A regional research agenda A regional research agenda may reveal more attractive to donor agencies.may reveal more attractive to donor agencies.

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Process for Revisiting the Research Process for Revisiting the Research Priority Setting- 1Priority Setting- 1

The Task ForceThe Task Force: : Members: Salah Galal, Majid Members: Salah Galal, Majid

Jamal, Nasri Haddad, Ibrahim Hamdan, Kamel Jamal, Nasri Haddad, Ibrahim Hamdan, Kamel Shideed Majid Slama. Shideed Majid Slama.

The Task Force members also function as The Task Force members also function as Focal Points each for one of the six priority Focal Points each for one of the six priority clusters.clusters.

The ScopeThe Scope: :

Thematic working groups rather than Regional Thematic working groups rather than Regional /sub- regional (No. of themes?)/sub- regional (No. of themes?)

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The Process:The Process: Identify the themes and to develop the Working Groups; one WG Identify the themes and to develop the Working Groups; one WG

for each Theme.for each Theme. Enlarge the number of the sub-regional/country representation in Enlarge the number of the sub-regional/country representation in

each of the Thematic Groups.each of the Thematic Groups. Select for each WG leading expert (s) from the national Select for each WG leading expert (s) from the national

programs (NARS etc) –programs (NARS etc) –Funding??.Funding??. Each WG will be supported by a member of the Task Force Each WG will be supported by a member of the Task Force

(Theme Focal Point). The Experts will: (Theme Focal Point). The Experts will: Review the current Priority SettingReview the current Priority Setting

Present their views on the themes of the current priorities Present their views on the themes of the current priorities and to derive tentative suggestions for WGs discussion (an and to derive tentative suggestions for WGs discussion (an Expert Consultation)Expert Consultation). .

Assist the WGs develop recommendations and generate Assist the WGs develop recommendations and generate new agricultural research priorities new agricultural research priorities

Process of Revisiting the Research Process of Revisiting the Research Priority Setting- 2Priority Setting- 2

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Main Messages and Issues: Resource use efficiency and enabling policy

The need for rigorous research to answer the following questions: How to address resource use efficiency, productivity and

profitability?

How to ensure sustainability under highly stressed NR base, rapidly changing land use and climate variability?

What are the alternative options to improve the livelihoods of the farming communities?

What is the enabling policy and institutional environment to enhance the uptake and impact of improved technologies?

How to better link farmers to markets, and minimize market risks?

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Main Messages and Issues: Sources of Growth and Research Funding

Expansion in crop area was a major contributor to cereal growth rates in the last 4 decades. This is no longer a viable option given increased water scarcity

Future growth rates in food production needs to come from productivity enhancement

Private R&D contribution is expected to stay minimal in productivity-enhancing research of staple crops.

Publicly funded agricultural R&D will continue as the main source of productivity-enhancing research in NENA.

Spillovers of agricultural science and technology within and among countries have been a key feature of agricultural development.

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Main Messages and Issues: Recommendations for Promoting R&D

To enhance the effectiveness of public investments in agricultural science and technology:

Enhance technology strategies and priority setting in line with their comparative advantages, resource endowments, and contribution to the developmental goals

Understand the evolution and identify complementary roles of different research partners, including NARS, ARIs, and CGIAR Centers

Define options and opportunities for optimizing the contribution of agricultural R&D

Carry out ex-ante and ex-post research evaluation for accountability and resource allocation purposes to maximize impact.

Thank You for Your Attention ICARDA