Resultados&discusión hondurasen
Transcript of Resultados&discusión hondurasen
National and Regional GLOBIO Modeling results
Denisse McLean
Belize, August 2010.
46%
11%4%
2%
37%
Modeling Work in Central America
Colaboration between Central American Commission (CCAD) – IRBIO - PBL
In line with the commitments adopted with CBD
First regional evaluation built upon national individual evaluations
Objectives:
To implement a scientifically supported methodology in the Central American region
To adapt a global methodology to a regional – national context
To integrate the topic of biodiversity in the policy making process
To develop local biodiversity modeling capacity
Modeling Work in Central America
Regional team coordination
Establishment of the regional advance team in charge of the first modeling exercise:◦ MSA value revision team◦ Scenario development team◦ Modelation team
Team training in the methodology
Coordination of linked work
Local capacity development Training for national
environmental authorities’ technicians◦ First basic GLOBIO modeling
methodology workshop◦ Second advanced CLUE land
use modeling workshop Input information
exchange for regional modeling
Inputs
• Spatial inputs▫National land use maps▫Road maps▫Population density maps▫Ecosystem maps
• Team information▫Model parameters▫Scenarios▫MSA values evaluation
• GLOBIO impact categories per pressure
Scenarios considered
Baseline
• Population, migration, GDP, exports and tertiary sector increase
• Primary sector reduction
• Constant effects
ALIDES
• Economic sector transformation
• Reforestation and sustainable production promotion
• Increasing effects
Free Trade
• Increased access to markets
• Agricultural product exports
• Fuels and processed goods imports
• Decreasing effects
Assumptions Policy options based on Baseline scenario
projections Independency between options Political and climatic stability
Variables related to land use change were included
The values of some variables were approximated
Scenario figures Support information
◦ Data series◦ Projections◦ Files◦ Articles
Sistematic lack of information for every country and every land use
Obtained products National and regional
maps Aggregated figures Reports Data bases Developed local
capacity
Gracia
s a D
iosColón
Olancho
Atlántida
Yoro
Comayagua
Fco M
orazá
n
Islas d
e la Bahía
Intibucá
Lempira
La Paz
El Para
ísoCopán
Cortés
Ocotepeque
Choluteca
Santa Bárb
araValle
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
46%
11%
4%
2%
37%MSA RemanenteInfraestructuraFragmentaciónDeposición NCambio ClimáticoUso de Suelo
Regional Results
Regional Results
48.09%
9.47%5.80%2.54%
34.10%
Current State
MSA RemanenteInfraestructuraFragmentaciónDeposición NCambio ClimáticoUso de Suelo
Regional Results
41.64%
7.90%4.78%4.16%
41.52%
Baseline Scenario
MSA RemanenteInfraestructuraFragmentaciónDeposición NCambio ClimáticoUso de Suelo
Regional Results
42.77%
8.29%
4.78%4.15%
40.01%
ALIDES Scenario
MSA RemanenteInfraestructuraFragmentaciónDeposición NCambio ClimáticoUso de Suelo
Regional Results
40.56%
7.73%4.76%3.91%
43.05%
Free Trade Scenario
MSA RemanenteInfraestructuraFragmentaciónDeposición NCambio ClimáticoUso de Suelo
Regional Results - PA
73.00%
6.39%
5.43%
2.42%
12.76%
Protected Areas - Current State
MSA RemanenteInfraestructuraFragmentaciónDeposición NCambio ClimáticoUso de Suelo
Regional Results - PA
66.19%6.17%
5.02%
3.85%
18.77%
Protected Areas – Baseline Scenario
MSA RemanenteInfraestructuraFragmentaciónDeposición NCambio ClimáticoUso de Suelo
Regional Results - PA
65.07%
6.13%
5.00%
3.84%
19.96%
Protected Areas – ALIDES Scenario
MSA RemanenteInfraestructuraFragmentaciónDeposición NCambio ClimáticoUso de Suelo
Regional Results - PA
65.77%5.85%
5.00%
3.60%
19.78%
Protected Areas – Free Trade Scenario
MSA RemanenteInfraestructuraFragmentaciónDeposición NCambio ClimáticoUso de Suelo
National Results
LAND USECurrent State
Baseline Scenario2030 ALIDES 2030 Free Trade 2030
% Var. % Var. % Var.
Primary Forest 24.39% 13.69% -10.69 13.65% -10.74 13.42% -10.96Secondary Forest 24.96% 14.02% -10.94 18.32% -6.64 15.28% -9.68Extensive Agriculture 38.08% 48.77% 10.69 48.70% 10.61 28.05% -10.03Intensive Agriculture 1.75% 13.25% 11.50 13.28% 11.53 18.68% 16.93Livestock Grazing 9.50% 8.95% -0.55 4.74% -4.76 23.24% 13.74Others 1.33% 1.33% 0.00 1.33% 0.00 1.33% 0.00
National Results
National ResultsCurrent State Baseline Scenario
ALIDES Scenario Free Trade Scenario
Current StateBaseline Scenario 2030 ALIDES 2030 Free Trade 2030
% Var. % Var. % Var.
Remaining Biodiversity
MSA 46.37% 36.73% -9.64 37.03% -9.34 39.17% -7.20
Loss per pressure
Infrastructure 11.13% 6.15% -4.98 6.09% -5.04 8.73% -2.40
Fragmentation 4.11% 2.93% -1.18 2.65% -1.46 3.11% -1.00
N Deposition 0.00% 0.00% 0.00 0.00% 0.00 0.00% 0.00
Climate Change 1.88% 4.31% 2.43 4.32% 2.44 4.25% 2.37
Land Use 36.50% 49.87% 13.37 49.91% 13.41 44.75% 8.25
National Results
PROTECTED AREASCurrent State
Baseline Scenario 2030 ALIDES 2030 Free Trade 2030
% Var. % Var. % Var.
Remaining Biodiversity
MSA 46.37% 36.73% -9.64 37.03% -9.34 39.17% -7.20
Loss per pressure
Infrastructure 11.13% 6.15% -4.98 6.09% -5.04 8.73% -2.40
Fragmentation 4.11% 2.93% -1.18 2.65% -1.46 3.11% -1.00
N Deposition 0.00% 0.00% 0.00 0.00% 0.00 0.00% 0.00
Climate Change 1.88% 4.31% 2.43 4.32% 2.44 4.25% 2.37
Land Use 36.50% 49.87% 13.37 49.91% 13.41 44.75% 8.25
National Results
Following Steps In the countries:
◦ Report revision◦ Improvement of information quality◦ Comparison of results between countries◦ Embedding of results in political processes◦ Evaluation of new scenarios
PARCA III FTA European Union Aquatic ecosystem module
Following Steps In the Project:
◦ Model transfer and follow up◦ Result presentation to interested stakeholders◦ Analysis of policy implications◦ Tool improvements
Primer ejercicio metodológico. No se trata de un análisis exhaustivo,
definitivo, de nivel científico de precisión. Existe información más actualizada y/o
validada que no pudo ser integrada. Por lo tanto, los resultados no se consideran
validados ni oficializados por los países.
Report clarifications
The objective of the exercise was to build the first preliminar approximation to the state and trends in biodiversity in terms of the Mean Species Abundance from the data available at the moment of model application according to the sources consulted and to deliver these models to the countries.
Report clarifications
The results with provide the countries with a valuable tool to support their environmental management and decision making. The models can be used as an instrument to stimulate discussion and to integrate the topic of biodiversity into other sectors through the consideration, planning and design of policy alternatives.
Report clarifications
Countries are expected to maintain the models by improving results with updated information and by evaluating new scenarios and policy options according to emerging needs, possibilities and interests in each country or within the whole region.
Report clarifications
Is the quality of the input information enough to derive conclusions from results?
What conclusions can be derived for national and regional policies?
Which applications can be made with the results and the models?
Points to discuss
How to keep the modeling capacity in the countries?
Which political processes would be the most adequate to embed the models?
Which aspects to improve? F.E. Quality of input information, MSA values, validation
Is it necessary to have a follow up?
In which areas should the follow up be implemented?
Points to discuss
List the current policies in the country that impact positively or negatively biodiversity conservation, protection and use
List the upcoming policies in the country that could impact positively or negatively biodiversity conservation, protection and use
Points to discuss
Questions and Comments
Thank you