RESOURCE FLOW BETWEEN AGRICULTURE AND INDUSTRY

RESOURCE FLOW BETWEEN AGRICULTURE AND INDUSTRY

- The Chinese Experience*-

SHIGERU ISHIKAWA

The author has previously been engaged in a series of comparative studies on the role of the agricultural sector among the developing countries,

being in doubt about the validity of the generally recognized vievy that in

those countries much of the capital for industrialization has been supplied

from this sector. For the purpose of re-examining this view, ip this article

the author analyses the resource outflow-inflow position of the agricultural

sector in the Chinese economy and presents a grave question : Can the agri-

cultural sector provide sufiicient capital for industrial development in de-

veloping countri~s ?

INTRODUCTION HE IDEA that in order that ' economic development in underdeveloped T countries should progress successfully it is necessary that the agricultural

sector should provide the funds for the non-agricultural sector, specifically,

for industrialization, would now appear to be accepted as being practically a

matter of common-sense. In the background of this way of thinking there lies the at first sight plausible reasoning that the primitive capital accumula-

tion for the emerging industrial sector can scarcely be looked for outside the

agricultural sector, the sector which is of overwhelming importance at the

beginning of the develdpment period both in terms of national income and of population. On the other hand, there is alsd ahother aspect to this mat-

ter, the belief that the arguments put forward by students of t~e experience

of Japan, which undertook a rapid industrialization in the 19th ce~~tury, and

of the Soviet Union, which trod a similar course of rapid heavy industriali-

zation between 1920 , and 1930, have provided empirical backing for this kind

of reasoning.l

* I wish to exprese my appreciation to Profestor Simon Kuznets for making comments and criticisms on the original version of the estimates regarding Table l. I am. also grate-

ful to Mr. Yoshio Kawamurh of the Institute of Asian Economic Affairs for allowing me

to use the revised edition of the book [28], which was most useful in making revisions of

the estimatcs of the net resource flow in this paper. I would like also to thank Dr. J. R.

McEwan for the English translation of the manuscript.

l For representativ~ views oi Japan's experience, see [4l] Part IV. In this. work it is

stated, for example, that in Japan during and since the Meiji period, with the help of

the well-known reform of the Land Tax and the Japanese landlord-tenant system " the

4 The Developing Economies

For the purposes of elucidating the admissibility or otherwise of this way of thinking I have previously taken up material connected with a few Asian countries, including pre-war Japan, and carried out an elementary com-

parative study, and have further supplemented this with a theoretical study

based on a simple structural model.2 The conclusions of these studies are summarized as follows. ( l) With the statistics at present available we are not

yet in a position to make any definite judgement regarding the contention that accumulation in the farm sector, br a net outflow of resources from it, took place in Japan in the Meiji period. (2) W. e have reason to believe

that the prevailing situation in the developing countries of Asia at present is

characterized by an increasing net inflow of capital resources into the farm

sector or by a switch from a net outflow to a net iriflow, as an accompani-

ment to the advance of the development process. (3) The chief factors deter-

mining such outflow-inflow positions in the developing countries of Asia at

present are (a) a high rate of population growth an~ the precipitation of the

resulting surplus labour in the farm sector, (b) high incoine elasticities for

consumption ip the farm sector~ (c) a relatively high demand for producers'

goods from the non-agricultural sector considered necessary for raising per capita production in agriculture, speciflcally capital goods for basic investment

(flood-control, irrigation, etc.), and (d) a high rate of growth required in the

industrial sector, etc. The strength of these factors is rooted in the charac-

teristics of the initial conditions restricting the development of the backward

c6untries of Asia at pres6nt. (4) Consequently we would seem to be called

upon to be prepared to find that a net inflow of capital funds into the agricultural sector may be unavoidable if development is to be suctessful.

At the same time, however, we are called upon to recognize that there is a possibility to fepress the increase in net outflow of resources, dependirig on

choice of technology in basic investment prdjects and choice of organization

Government took away about one-third of the agricultural product on all land by ivay

of the land tax. On the tenant-cultivated land, which had expanded to almos~ half of

the total cultivated area, the landlords collected about half of the agricultural pro~u~t

by way of rent," and 'c the maJor part of the funds needed both for agncultural and

industfial development were suppli~d by agriculture." (p. 655)

As regards the Soviet experience, the controversies between the right and left factions

over Preobrazhenski's well-known thesis on 'tsocialist primitive apcumulation " Were in

fact coricerned with the direction to be taken by this switch in accumulatioh, bui pro-

fessor Erlich's view-that it wzis the theory set out in this work which w~s put into

effect through the Five-Year Plan by the main-stream faction actually in power=is fairly

widely accepted in the West at presen:t [14]. Arg'uments of the latter kind Were ex-

panded and applied in the forinula for iridustriali~ation adopted in China, a cotintfy

whose overtories are at once characterized a5 connotirig the socialist tystem held in conimon with the ~0viet IJnion, particularly as it exists in agriculture, zind thefe is a

very large number of writers who cbnsider, Iike Nove, that in Chiria, too, the cdllec-

tivization_of agriculture was the decisive instrument in 'c socialist aecumulatiori." ([40]

pp. 16*24.)

i2 This study is set ~ut in [25], ehaptet 4.

Resource Flow between Agriculture and Industry 5

in the farm sector.

Tbc 4bQve comparative stu~i~s incorporated part of t*he resul,ts of empir-

ical work which I had previously carried out on re~0u.rceS outflQw and inflow

in China between 1949 and 1959,8 but in the present article t.he subject is

narrowed dowl~ t.o China and 4n attelTrpt m,ade to improve arld exp.~nd tbc

work procedures employed. Thi.s will serve the aiim of deepe,nin~ Qur u~ider-

standing of points (2) and (3) in the conelusions Jisted abov.e. FQr these pur-

pQses, in the follpwing we Shall at first carry o ut (i) a stat.istica~ re-exaJ~l-

in~tipn of the resources out~ow and inflow between the' far~l and non-far'm sectors, using data which have newly become available, specifically statistical

data regarding the levying of agricultural taxes in kind, these taxes constitut-

ing an important part of the resources outflow from the farJTI sector (Sections

I and II) ; (ii) an empirical examination of behaviour patterns in food-con-

sumption in the farm household, which are understood as one of the principal

d~ter.mjnal~ts of outflow and inflpw of capital reS0urces, ~nd we shall see how

the results of this examinatiQn fit with the observation n~ade unde{ r (i) above.

(Section IJJ)

In the study which follows we have used the definitions Qf concepts and

tbc metbcdology for statistical estimation of resourc~s outflow and ipflow which we ~mp.10yed in the above-I~lent-iQl~ed colqcrp~rat.ive studies. ~art,ipuhr

attent.ipn T~mst bc draw:n to the fQllQwixlg four points. Tbc first is that " ag-

riculture " in the cQ~rte xt of " tbc transfer of capital fu;idS from agricult~lre "

ngust have the ~lean_i~lg of " tbc far~n sector " wheri used in the strict sense.

The baSic cQn~ stituent unit in this seQtQr is th: ~ farm h9usehold in which

produQtive activities-agriculture and sub~id.i~ry Qr p~rt-til~le. work, etc.-~re

brganica.1ly combirled with the cqnsw~ling activitie~ of the family unit and

we may say that even after tbcse units have been c0~ Ilectivized in the form

of Agricultural Produqers' QQ-Qperatives (APC) or Qf Pebple's CQmm.u~l~s nQ

co~lrplete sepa.r4tlpn of these activitieS has bcen ~een, apart fro~n shQrt,

exctptional periods. S~cQndly, we col~sider thd terJTI " capital funds " to refer

tp b.as.ic right.s o, f clajm tp cQ~nmpditi~S al~d servi~es, ~nd we den, ot~ them

by the ter~n " r~sQurces." Thirdly, the net sur~i of outflow is foun,d as the,

difference between real imports ~Lnd exports expressed i~l terms of certain base-year prices. Beside~ be, in~ subject to influence by tbc size of tbc di~fer-

ence between im~oirts apd ex~orts at the current priees (of the year in which these i~rport_s al;id expQrts take place), a differe~rce ne~cessit~ting fin;a,~ci~l

cleari~rg, th.e net sum of outgojngs is infiuel;rced by Qha.nges in thb terms of

trade. In the case of any import surplus in the current priceS thi,s reJat;io,1~:

is expre_ss~d ip tbc fol.lowing equ~tion.4

M E _ ~ + E /P. ~1) P~ P.~P~ P. ¥P_

8 This study was first published in Tables 6 and 7 in [23]. It was ne~ct published in

a revised version treating the partl;.cular items as given in [26].

4 This is transposed as follows for t*he case ~)f an export surplus in current price terms.

E .M _Mp E+ M P~_l . . P~ (P )

6 The Developing Economies (Where M and E are imports and exports in terms of the prices of the year in question, and P~ and P. are price index figures for imports and exports.)

The first item on the right of the equation is denoted " the sum of real financial resources inflow," and the second " the sum of resources inflow due

to the terms of trade effect." Fourthly, besides imports and exports in the

form of commercial transactions, we include in imports and exports govern-ment public investment in agriculture (regarded as a farm sector import) and payments of taxes in kind by the farm sector (regarded as a farm sector

export).

I. COMMODITY IMPORT-EXPORT ACCOUNT OF THE FARM SECTOR

According to our method, the first step in studying the flow of resources

in the farm sector consists in clarifying the sector's import-export accotint

for goods and services in relation to other sectors. In developing cotintries

where the greater part of the farm sector and the commodity transactions routes

appertaining thereto are in an as yet unorganized condition the performance of this task is wellnigh impossible unless we can carry out micrb-surv~ys of

peasant fainily budgets in such manner that they will subserve ouf aims. In

the case of China, however, statistics for pr~rchases of the products of agricul-

ture and subsidiaries and for rural retail corilmodities are compiled on the

basis of work reports by various organs in the commercial sector, which has

been widely socialized in advance of other sectors, albeit that sorFle questions

remain as regards the degree of accuracy of these statistics, and furthermore

these statistics ar~ published to a considerable degree. Along with these, statistical estimates for transactions on the non-organized market are Publish-

ed. Hence it is not impossible to estimate for the commodity import-export

account of the farm sector on a macro basis, provided that we give careful consideration to the concepts, definitions, and methods of calculation employed

in these statistical sburces and= apply necessary adjustments to them. The reSults of such an attempt in regard to the period 1950-1959, together with

details of the estimation procedures, are exhibited in Table 1.

Before treating of the findings obtained from this estimated account it

would seem to be nec6ssary to make a few comments on the nature of the exports and imports and on problems connected with the utiliz.ation of the published statistical material.

(1) The exports of the farm sector comprise the products of agriculture and farm subsidiaries.5 These exports can be classified into the following three

e The concept of subsidiary farm business differs according to whether the source material is the National Income Statistics, the Farm Economic Survey, or the internal

trade statistics. Here they are regardcd as including not.only products frorn fishing,

hunting, and collecting, but also the products of handicraft industry intended for

the market and consisting principally of the processing of raw materials produced by

!

~

Resource Floz~, between Agriculture and Industry 7

categories on the basis of the nature of the marked involved.

(~L) The payment of the Agricultural Tau in kind. When paid into the state

fiscal organs the greater part of this is at once handed over 'to the Trade

Ministries and its sale is undertaken by State Trading Companies.

(b) Sales in what may be called " the controlled market." This corresponds to

Purchase by State Trading Companies and Supply and Marketing Co-operatives.6 A part of the transactions in this market comprises ~Nhat is ofiicially known a~ " planned purchase," aipplied to food grains in November,

1953 and later extended to raw cotton and oilseeds. The amounts delivered

by the peasants and by Agricultural Producers' C0:operatives are determi-

ned by compulsory quotas laid down under state planning. As we show in the next Section, one of the characteristics of these quotas is that they

embrace the greater part of that part of the goods which is capable of being made intd marketable commodities (in the case of food grains the surplus food grains " after deduction of eatingigrains, seed, and animal ''

feed). The purchase prices are a controlled price the level of which was determined in line with market prices at the time of the institution of the

planned purchase system, but, as we shall see below, they have since been

kept practically unchanged. The remainder ~f the transactions on this market are those of what is known as " unified purchase." As regards the speci.fica'~tion of them it should have been the case that purchase contracts

~vere entered into with the producers for the purchase of a certain propor-

tion of total production in each region ~nd in respect to each designated

commodity, and that free disposal of the remainder should have been allowed. It is said, however, that since the proportions erred on the high

side and price contr61 was strictly enforced these purchases in fact differed

little from planned purchase, with the exception of the period of the relaxa'

tion of the free market from October, 1956 to August, 1957. Again, the items designated for unified purchase were enlarged from the principal products-pig, tea, hemp, and cocoons-to include a large number of minor

10cal products.7

(c) Sales in the so-called "free market." A part of the transactions in the

market represents the remainder of marketed products after the deduction of the deliveries of designated items subject to planned purchase and unified

purchase as above. But the volun~e of these tran~actions, as is clear from

the above, was limited, and in contrast to the Soviet collective farm niar-

ket, where trail~;actioyls in this Cate~ory were wholly free, there were strict

a~riculture. The value qf sales of the handiqraft products of the farms is given as 8

hundred million yuan in the Receipt and Expenditure Survey of Farm Household of 1954 (Cf. Table 3). Howbver, it is also teported from the side of production statistics

that the production under this head amounted to 2.81 thousand million yuan in that

year. ([27], p. 52n.)

8 For a geieral view of these erganizaiions; s~e [16], pp. 5-12. This paper is one of

the pioneering studies of this subject.

7 See [32], especiahy the stateul:ent o!i ~･ 89.

~ The Peveloping E.conomies limitations governjng the pl~qes in which trans~ctions ;pight tak.e p_1.~Qe, t,he

pers.oyLs with wbcp? tran~actions might be undertaken, and the prices at which tr~ns~cti,or}s mjght take pl~ce.8 An.pther par.t of the transactipns

taking place i_n this mark.et represprited e)~changes ih tradi.tional fon~l bc-

tw. eep far~nqr a~id far,mer and betiveen farmer 4nd direct consumer in. phe

local in~rkets (the it~pas including, besideS " native prodl4qts " an. d veget~b~es,

dppa~~tic ~ning~ls a~ld dQrp~stic poultry), a~ld this category alone .was able

to ~laint~lin cp:;np~.rativ~ fr~edqm in t. r~nsactions from hrst to last.9 W. e

paay Supppse tha~t this has prac ~ically the Sange poverage ~s wh~t is ofiipi~lly

termed " far.m~rs' trade."lo

The rel~tiv~ e scale of these three ~narkets ca.n be known in comparative

detail o~ly in r.cs,pect tQ the two years 1953 a~id 1954, during which this system

W as eSt~blished in substance throughout the na.tion. We exhibit this in Table

2.1~ Since in tbc " porchases by State Trading Companies and Supply and M~rketi~rg C.o-operatives (p.lal:~ne,d and unified purchases) " in Table I are

i~Qluded the 2Lmounts i.n fact purchased by these organs in the free ~narket,

the origi,n* !a. I free market is somewhat bigger in scale than there shoWn. Over

~he wh; ole, however_, thiS market accounted for a proportion of total marketed

~gricultl4ral prQd ucts which was less than one-thirdj and it might be thought

clear that ljt had dee~ined with the passage of tir~le. Further, the items dealt

ip beQ~me m9r.e limited tQ Iocal, products with the passage of time. From

the ~bove we n)ay infer that from 1953 the determination of the m~rketable produce Qf the far~n Seqtor as exhibited in Table I w~~s carried ou.t princi,p.ally

ip ~;.cc.ord~nce with the planners? preference, or in other wor:ds, that peasant

b; eh~viour in ~L free ~)a.rket~ pf 2i kind which could be explained in terms of

peasapt income leve= Is a:nd pric~s for produte, may be considered to have

b~en subject tp marked limitations.

(2) FE~rm sector imports comprise prod.ucers' goods and consumers' goods frotn m~nufacturihg industry, and agricultural pi-oducts. From the nat,ure of

e See the various provisions specified in Table 8. Note 6.

D. On the chronological changes in the market conttol for agricultural products and

the effects prod. uced On production, there is an exc.ellent account in [42], Chapters

lll ~Ld. IV.

10 " Farmers' tra,d~ " refers tp the various fprms of exqh~nge in the ~raditiona,1 free

mar~ets of rural Cb~n~, byt apaolrg the dj ~fi,~itio~s i~l the publishec Iiter~tl~re some

con~ide,r it to be limite4 tq s~;e~ of their ptpduct~ t.o the direc~ co~Isu.mers by the far-Iners ([ll], p. 81 ff. ~nd Cl9j, p. 22. In ~hese two publications it is said that farmers'

tra~~ thus defined aceo~l~t~ for lO'/o qf t,o.tal retajl tr~de ip t~e rur~~ mark,e,t.).. TQ the

coptr~ry? ot~eF ac,ov~t,s ~blc ;:hs;. i~ shou, [1.d ~l~p incl~de saies ot agnjcl;itu, r~l and

sl;bs~di~ry p.ro.duct~ alya,i,i~hlF for s~le whi~h ~re sold to co,nmerce, co*Qperativ,es, and

pt~e;r qrgan~ ([.P], p.p. 2~; 36).

n Table 2 is made up on the supposition that the material specified ip Notqs (c) aud

(d) are given i.n line with t~e (a) spries ljp. Ta,bls l. If they ~re in li:ne wit~ thd (b)

series the value of supply in Line 2 becomes ~uiva'~nt to t_hat h~ure min~ls t~e taxes

paid in kind in Line l. See also the nar. ra=tive in the te~t 14nder the sectiqn (3).

Resoutlce Flow betwee,t Agriculture and Industry 9

the st~tistics from which they are derived liv:e may assume that expenditures

on consumer goods of a service character in the farm household's budget are not included in them.12 The imported articles can also be classi,fied ac-

cording to the nature of the market involved into controlled market articles

and free market articles. The " controlled market " is a general appellation

applying to purchases from State Trading Companies and Supply and Mar-keting Co-operatives. As an institution, control exists only in respect to the

fixed-quantity distribution system for food grain be: gun on a provisional basis

along with the introduction of the planned phrchase system in 1953 and in

respect to a number of other items;8 In regard to the other import items, however, we may say that their purchase was corltrQlled, in that the total amounts supplied and the breakdown by items were substantially determined

by conscious government decisions. The " free market " refefs to purchases frol;n joint public and privat~ commercial or~al}s, private commercial organs,

industrial ahd handicraft meinufactur~rs, and farmers, and tbc transa.ctions

coming under the last head are brought together under the " farmers' trade :'

which we have mentioned above. As regairds other transactions in tbc free market, it is not.ed that these are of a scale larg~r tha:} t.hose in the case of

fr~e market exp6rts. Hov~ever, from an early date the greater part of these

merchants and industrialists have been tinder the control of State Tra.ding Companies as regards supplies of ia~v materials ~nd commodities d~alt in.

Qopsequelitly, yV~ ~an take it that in the total ~mport I~larket, ip;Cludjng the

fr~e market, " consu~ler's sovereignty " is subject tp sev,ere limitations. We

laiay say that the fact that since 'the ~econd h~.If of 1953 there h~s been a

conti~ming shortage of goods on the C~inese ruial ngarketl4 refleQts this.

(3) The greatest problem in the utili~ation of the statistiqal materia.1 em-

ployed in makin~ u~ Table I is the difficulty of j~idgirlg whether or hot ~he

totals for purch~ses (ts'ai-kou) of agricultuir~l and ~ubsidi~ry products, th~

12 Expendiiures on co~sumption goods of a service char~cter may perhaps accouri~ for

the greater part of the " other expenditures " in Table 3. Viewed either iri ternts of

cash expe4dit_u~e~ or of cas.h ~nd nQn-cash exp.enditures, this occ.upies appiroximately

lOo/o of the total. This implies that Tabl. e I und. ef-estimates it~rports roughly by this

propoytion.

18 Return s.ales of food gr.aips in the farm sectpr w.ere ~~~rie~ out in respect to the farm householcs cesignatbd ~s " farm household~ suff~rin~ fropa foQ~ s.hortage " in the

Provisibn~1 Regulations for Confrolled Purc.has~ and Consum,ptiqn of Fooc Grains ip

Rural. Areas Qf 1955, and those in the aiea where agricultural pioduction is concen-

trated on the Economic Crops and Na!tutal Calamity Are~s. C56]

14 According to Wang P'ing, [67], the value of niariufactured goods so;d in the free

!parket, in the sens,e of direct retail trade by manufactures and handicraft manufactures,

was 7.05 thp~~~and million yuan in 1953, 5.0 iu 1954, 3.56 in 1955, and 4.02 in 1956.

The~~ ~re figures which include sales in the n,on-agricultural sectors. In the light of

t*hese ~t is clear th~Lt th.e free mar.ket im_por.ts given in Table I include purchases from

joipt publiq and priv~rte commer,c~ and fro.In private commerce.

15 E~l!toria~ in the People's Daily, Oct. 7, 1953, Nov. I l, 1953, Feb. 8, 1955, and Nov.

l.2, 195..5.

,1 O The Developing Economies

~)'-*r~atest basis in the statistics within the export account, include the Agricul-

tural Tax paid in kind. In the text-book accounts " purchases of agricultural

products " are subdivided as follows :

Purchases of agricultural

products

Concentrated J, Collection of Agricultural Tax in kind IPlanned purchases

purchases Non-planned purchases

Non-concentrated purchases

As the reason for thus including taxes paid in kind along with purchases, the same text-book says, " although these are not originally a part of com-

mercial circulation, they are an important source from which the state con-

centrates agricultural products, and the agricultural products obtained from

the Agricultural Tax are sold through the commercial organs."I6 On occasion,

however, there are items in the published statistics which clearly do not include the Agricultural Tax, and arriving at a judgment in each case is altogether troublesome. The sources employed in this Table are a case re-quiring such a judgment. Table 2, as well as Tables 3 and 4) are of service

in checking this, but while Tables 2 and 4 suggest that the figures do not

include taxes in kind, Table 3 suggests tha~ they do,17 We believe that the check provided by Tables 2 and 4 is of gr~ater reliability, but for cautioh's

sake ~t may be suitable for us to exhibit. this as two substitutable series for

the case in which the estimated export~ do not include taxes paid in kind and the case in which they do. In Table I we have put the figures in the squrces for purchases of agricultural and subsidary prbducts by State Trading

Companies and Supply and Marketing Co-operatives unchanged in Serics 1-2, and in the Totals column we have shown an (a) series in which it is assumed

that taxes in kind are not included in them and a (b) series in which it is

' assutned that they are included.

(4) The second problem is the fact that there is a considerable d~rerence

between the figures published up to the middle of 1958 as statistics of pur-

chases and those published after that date. In practically all cases the latter

are smaller than the former. In the Table the former appear as A series and the latter as ~ series. Checking them with available material, it appears

that the B series repiresents the results of a correction of the A series on three

~oints.18 (i) As shown in Table 3, up to 1955 the state trading companies

18 See [20], pP･ 237-238, 121-122. 17 The checks by means of these Tables, apart from that relating to Table 2, are self-

evident. The. check by means of Table 2 is carried out by the following procedure.

The figures for food supplied in this Table plus sales in the free market are of the

~ame series as the figures in the 1-2 series in Table 1, but when converted into terms

of kind the figures are equivalent to columns (2)+(3) in the Table. As shown in Note

(f), the =figures for raw cotton and oilseeds, too, do not produce very irrational results.

le Corrections of the A series by the B series are particularly great in the period prior

Resource Flow betw~en Agricul ture and Ind ustry 11

delegated the greater part of their purchases to the Supply and Marketing Co-operatives, 'and this might have produced double accounting in the purchase

statistics.19 (ii) The alteration which acconrpanied. the revision of definitions

and methods in " retail commodity statistics " as a result of the All China

Purchasing Power Conference held in June, 1957, under the auspices of the State Economic Council and the State Statistical Bureau.20 (iii) The value of

transations in the free market had been obtained by estimation, and the

procedure was revised. Thus we would expect it to be well for our study to rely wholly on the B series~ but the simultaneous use of the A series is

made necessary by the fact that many of the related figures are for 1958 and

the preceding years. We may expect the same problem to exist in the case of commodity imports, but here B serics figures are obtainable only for value

of producer goods purchased.21 Keeping the results of these consideration in mind, inspection of Table l

(and of the principal figures therein shown in Figure 1) provides the follow-

ing observations. Firstly, considerably different observations regarding the

commodity import-export bala'~ce in the farm sector are possible, depending on which of the two substitutable series is adopted, but taking the aA series,

which has the largest value for exports, or the aB series, which we find the

most plausible, it is about 1955 that the balance shifted decisively to an im-

port surplus. Further, we have reason for thinking that the trend was for the surplus to the enlarged with the passage of the years. Secondly, judging

by the series for the controlled market excluding free market transactions, the series which is weake~t in its statistical basis, imports and exports would

seem to have followed ~L boutse iri which they were comparatively near to a

to 1953. As result, the marketed ratio series given in Figure 4 show~ a much better

fit' with that for food grains in the case ef the B series.

19 The source suggesting this is [63], p. 24. Here we find the note, " cleared of redu-

plications as between state commerce and co-operatives " appended for the first time

to a mention of purchases of the products of industry and agriculture by state and

co-operative commerce in 1957,

ao In particular see [18]. As one df these reforms, the sales of production goods to

the farm sector in the retail statistics, which had formerly excluded production goods in subsidiary farm business, now came to include these. Under farmers' trade it had

been the practice to calculate the sales made by farmers' to residents in both town and

country, but now this calculation was made for sales to non-agricultural occupations

onlyl Assuming that this latter reform was carried out completely, from the st~nd-

point of Table I we would have to deduct the equivalent ~mouht from the import

account. 31 It is nevertheless true that it is still doubtful whether the purchases of production

goods given in series II-1~i)-(B) in Table I are comparable with the A figures in the same series. The A figures are estimated by selecting production goods from the manu-

factured goods, but the B figures are nrerely referred to in the original source as " :neans

for agricultural production." The " means for production " are ofiicially defined as in-

cludirrg " agricultural raw materials such as cotton." In this instance the sums in

question ate included in this series only because they appoximate to A.


Figure 1. E~PQRTS AN.D IMPORTS OF COMMODITIES BETW, Eg~N THE AGRICULTUl~AL AND NON-AGRICULTUl~AL SECTORS (cuirent piices, thousand million y~tan)

30

20

lO

/ l' Commod. ity '

. Imiports . ~. j

ld / CommQdity

s aA/// Exports

~.'~a~Bfll 7' lll~"~___ _b~! I aB . b.~AJ/ /

/ .¥ // dlj/'~ ~A._...j

/ f ;" -/ I.l / / / .., / Exports. via l ~' ¥i /lh:iports via CQntrollid

hf ¥ / Controlled ~:~rket// l/aB ¥F' Marke. t

/ / Inports of Producers' ~oods I

and St~ie Capjtal Investment ,.~,_J ¥__.._///

._/d' ' ~"~t~

Notes :

Sou. rce :

1951 195S 1955 - 1957 aA, aB, bA, and bB indic~te the alternative series which are derived

Table I and explained in ths te~;t of Lines 1-1*1-~ or that of ri-1-(l

From Table l.

. Controued market stand･s for the II-2-(1), apd II-3.

from tot~1

balance, but even in this case the size of the export surplus prpgressively

decreased, and it is more or less clear that it changed tp an ijmport sl;rphys

in 1958. Thirdly, these statistiqs make it clear that related to one of the determining factors in this change ip the balanqe between import a~d export

sl;rpluses were the sudde~l increases in prod~lcers goods 2~nd governme nt ipvest-

ment in capital conStr.uction. Fourthly, this kind of change from an export surplus to an import surplus and the subsequeht enlargement of the irnport

surplus may be imagined to have been undesirable in the sight of the plann-

in'o authorities who from the frst had been projecting a rapid enlargement of the industrial sector, but the occurrence would appear to have taken place

under conditiol;s in which the pla~mers' pref~rences were in the ascendant in

the determination of the imports and exports of the farn) sectQr.

Among the above observations, to what degree (1) to (3) are relevant d, epends on the reli~ibility of the statistics used and the appropriate~ess of

the methods employed in thejr utiJizat,i.on, bpt in thp ~,ight pf th~ r~.su_Its of


the investigatiori Of the soutce niaterial ~rhich we havb giveri abo~re vre ate disposed tp think that they are cdmparatively neat the t'uth. As independent

material for checking them we might think of estimating for the financial aspect of the inter-sebtor balance of payments (the current accbunt element,

services, current transfer, and capital account), but as y~t we have not suc-

qeeded in ptoducing over-all estitnates of these.22 On the other hand, we can use for the same purposes the result~ of the National Suivey of Farm Hou~e-

hold Receipts and Expenditures carried out for the frst time in 1955 in respect to a randotn sample of more thar~ 16.000 peasant households in 25 Prbvinces with 1954 as the refereriCe year. The available figure~ from this sutvey are ptesented in Table 4. We have already used this as a partial check on Table l, and if we compare it with Table I iri terms of the total frame of

iinports and e~tports it wduld seem to e~hibit a fairly good degree of fit.

In particular, the value of commodity exports in 1954 shown in it is 18 thou-

sand million yuan and that 6f commodity imports 23 thousdnd milliori yuan, giving an impdrt surplus of 5 thpusand million yuan. The value of impo,rts

is iri excess of th'at given in Table l, but the greater part of thi~ differehce

may be considered to be an error produced by the ~rarious asstimptionS made

in the ptocess of estimation etnployed in Table l.

ll･. THE DIRECTION AND SCALE OF NET FLOWS OF RESOURCES

As we said in th~ Introductory section, the method employed in Qur estiination of net flows of resources in the farin sector is that of finding the

differences between real imports and exports by revaluing in terms of the

prices of a c6rtain base year the values of importS and exports expressed in

currel~t prices. Wh~t we must pmphasize here, however, is that our calcula-tion of the difference between real ilTrports and exports by means of ~hese

base ye~r prices has been uhdertaken only as a convenient means fot the estimation of net flows of resources. From the frst, the idea that flows of

resdurees might have takeh phLce in directions and on a scale different from

th0Se indicated by the commodity export or import surplus expr~ssed in current prices is based oh the riotion that the current prices in theSe pases

are different from th, e " re~l prices " of the imPorted arid exported articles,

arid that for this reason there may perhaps be some additional flow of re-sources. By such " real prices " is meant production costs where the allocation of the factors of production among the various ptodticts is carried out with

mdst efficiency. Since it is extremely difficult to find for " real prices " in

this sense in respect to every year, the aim of this method is to take, as an

approximation, the price structure of a year in the past in which the Nation-

al Econpr~ry ~ras in a relatively normal condition (in the ,case of C~ipa the

22 The f･ragmtntary figures are given in [25]. Wage income and receipts of remittances may be supposed to have bulked large among the items serving to defray the import

surplus. This is the same as the restilts in Table 4.

14 The Peveloping Economies

fact of the market mechanism being in operation is at least a part of this condition) and was further~nore more stable, and thereby to. cause it to be

of use in intertemporal price comparisons. Hence the question dealt with ir}

this Section is that of arriving at approximate Yalues for the differencq be-

tween real imports and exports, having frst selected a base year which would

appear to be suitable from this point of view. As a practical question the selection, of a suitable base year is ~ difficult task, but for the purposes of

the present study we shall first calculate for 1952 and 1936-37 on common-sense grounds* and thereafter shall try to elicit the significance of the results.

The year 1952 is ofbcially considered to be the year in which the National

Economy recovered the highest levels of pre-war economic activity. The frst

Five-Year Plan began in the following year, 1953, and market strain accom-

panying rapid investment increases appeared from the second half of that

year) but 1952 was a year in which the supply and demand relations in respect to rcsources were relatively stable. As a result of the completion of

the Land Reform and of the movement for the destruction of the pre-existing social order and customary practices in commerce and industry known as the San-fan movement the organization of the economy was compar-atively modernized. Moves towards socialization, however, were as yet not conspicuous. For such reasons ,as these it is customary for students of China

to consider 1952 the most normal year in the period of the People's Republic

of China,2s and these same reasons provide the grounds for our choice of this year as one of the base years in our study.

The determination of real commodity imports and exports in terms of this ba~e year can be carried out with the estimated data for commodity impor~s and exports in current prices treated in the previous Section and with data regarding import and export prices which we shall now investigate.

The results are exhibited in Table 6.

1) The State Statistical Bureau compiled and published an A11 China Price Index for Purchases of Agricultural and Subsidiary Products and an

All China Rural Retail Price Index for lylanufactured Goods covering the

years 1950-1958.24 There remain some obscure points regarding the compila-

tion of these statistics,25 but if we bear in mind all errors which might

arise from these points it will be possible for us to use these statistics as the

principal data in arriving at our real values.

2) We have reason for supposing that the Price Index for Purchases of

23 For example, [13], pp. 8-11.

24 The most detailed explanation so far published regarding the purchase price index

is to be found in [58].

2e As one of these we may mention the fact that the calculation formula of the index

figures is not known. Ideally, the Paasche formula, and for realistic purposes the link

method based on the Laspire formula are desired as formulae for the determination of

Chinese price indices. (AS critical examinations of Chinese price indices the best to

date are [37]. It is supposed that these two indices may perhaps be of the Laspirc

formula or of the link type based on the Laspire formula.

Resource Flow between Agriculture and Ind ustry 15

Agricultural and Subsidiary Products may have excluded agricultural products paid as taxes. If we assume that these statistics include these

agricultural products paid as taxes (and consequently reflect the changes

in the conversion prices employed in the fiscal administration of these products) we will be able to use them directly as comprehensive deflators

of the total exports of the B seri~s mentioned in the preceding Section. If,

however, we assume that this is not so, then we must reply to. the supple-

mentary question of how we are to evaluate in real terms the amount of exports in the A series accounted for by agricultural products paid in taxes.

First let us state the main points of the procedure for the monetary evalu-

ation of the Agricultural Tax, as far as we know them. (a) The sum levied in Agricultural Taxes is evaluated on a unified basis

in weight terms of hsi-liaug (fine grains)26 by the fscal organs. The most

detailed yearly series for the Agricultural Tax which are available to us

are also given in " hsi-liang " terms. By " hsi-liang " is meant the processed

forms of the principal food grains in each region (rice in south China,

millet in north China, kao-liang in the north-east, and wheat in the north-

west, the north-west being, exceptional in that the flgures are for food

grains before processing). The greater part of tax payments is made in

these standard principal grains, unprocessed.27 The quantities of these unprocessed grains are converted to those of ~rocessed grains and the

latter are set down unchanged as tax receipts in hsi-liang terms. In cases in which taxes are paid in differing qualities of the principal food grains, or are paid in other food grain~, the general rule is to deter-

mine the quantities payable by conversion at market prices from the tax-demand expressed in terms of the standard principal food grains. It

also sometimes happens that when the government wishcs to encourage the payment of taxes in a certain crop the conversion rate is made pro-

fitable for that crop. Regarding the conversion rates for payment in cash we have no information, except for the fact that in September, 1950, the regulations in the East China Region called for conversion at

market prices.28

2G [28] first edition, pp. 131, 327. Th~re had been a great deal of confusion in the

Western litera~ure regarding the interpretation of the term " hsi-liang." In the majority

of cases writers have regarded it as meaning rice, wheat, or processed food grains, as

opposed to " tsu-liang " (coarse grains) or unprocessed food grains.

27 [28], p. 310, 316-317.

28 _ The following provisions appear in the Supplementary Provisions to the Provisional

Regulation of the Agricultural Tax in the Newly Liberated Areas, issued by the Military

Administration Committee of East China in September. 1950. " In the regions in which

the cultivation of economic crops is comparatively numerous and in the regions in which

there is a shortage of food grains the People's Government in each Province (city or

region) may levy agricultural tax in cash as substitute for food grains. As regards the

prices for that conversion, where there are the state trading company listed prices

the levies will be made calculating in accordance with the listed prices .for middle-grade

food grains. In regions where. there are no listed prices the levies will be made at

16 The D~veloping Economies

(b) Agricultutal prodtiCts delivefed as ta;~~es ~aid in kind are at once

handed 0~er by the government fina;ncial authorities to ~he cdtnntercial

authorities. After the coinrriercial atithorities have sold them on ~he mar-

ket through State Tradi,ng Companies they Pay in the proceeds to the siate financial authorities, This is kno: wn as " the ~um of converted public

food gtains," and is given as a receipt item in the bud~et along with

the pdrtion of t,a~~es paid in cash. The ptices at which the financial

authoritie~ hand over the products to the cdmmercial authorities are determined by Ptice Agreement Clauses ih cdritracts concluded in advance

between these two authorities. One would ~~pedt the unit price for hsi-liang to be specified by these Clatises, but we have no information rega;rding their content.29

As is clear from the abov6, " hsi-liang " is a real unit in which the

total of Agricultural Tax paid iri kind- is reckoned in terms of certain

price levels of the principal food grains, a kind of " food-grain e~uiva-

lent." But since the contents of the principal food grains differ from region

to region and the raising of coriversion rates from other fobd grainS into

the principal food grairis is 6ntployed as an incehtive, this food-grain eqlaivalent is only an apptdximatidn. A still riiore decisiv6 qbestion is

how this food-grai･n equivalent is converted into money terms. Following c;ut the above Procedure, we qan r6phrase this question as the ~uestion

of whether or rio~ there is a diffefential betweeh the evaluated prices

for agricultural products paid as t,axes in kind as shown in the budget (equivalent to th6 prices at which thb coinmetcial alithorities inake their

paytnents to the financial authorities) and the coinmercial authorities'

purchase priccs (since we may stppose that the~e agricultural products

paid as taxes in kind would be sold at the same prices as agricultural products subject to planried putchase), and, if there is, how the evaluated ptices used in budgeting are determined. Ithe inforination necessary for

investigating this questi6n is ptesentcd in Table 5 and Figure I . From these we learn first that the pric_es for hsi-1iang as used in budgeting were

practically constant over the years 1950-1957,30 and second that between

1953 and 1956 the lev~ls of these prices exhibited practically no differ-

ence from the annual median figures of the information regarding prices

in dispersed lota:1 mzirkets collected by Ronal'd Hsia fr6m new~Paper

reports. These two facts suggest that therb was seemirigly ptactically

~lo djfferential _ between the purphase prices and budgetary prices fof f004 ~rains, ~t least during the y6ars 195~ ~o lg5~.81 Thir~, for the period

niarkct piices." ('[43], Vol, 1, pp. 315-316.)

.9 [28], pp. 310i31.2; 314*315. See also [32], P. 6.

*b 1]he trehd seeins to be a little inclined to rise. This order of change, however; wduld

be better attributed to fluctuaiions in the compositiorr of the food gr~iris paid ~s taxe~.

3* The same was probably th~ cases in 1958. The budget price for 100 chin ()f hsi-liang

ixi the taxes levied in 1958, which can be calculated fr6in Li Hsien-nien's rtport on

the state accowits for 1959, is 8L7 yuan, the sam,~ as for 1957. On the other haiid,

Resource Flow between Agriculture and ledustry 17

Figure 2. MONTHLY CHANGES IN THE WHOLESALE PRICES OF FOOD GRAINS (lOO catties) AND COTTON (ginned, 10 catties)

IN SHANGHAI AND TIENTSIN

;$

S

15

lO

6

15

lO

5

l : : : l l Wheit

ll l ll I

I i l S~~~~2~lhatighl ~ j I :

l : I I I :

l j Ricel l : IJ: : l

l

j t l I I l 4 , I' I l j I ICotto I I f l

f I I I I I l l 'e;Ii~~~~si'r : l : j ~ll illet I : I I t t /1 1 i l ll I : I I l J

, I } j ! : l I I l : l I I l I l I Il ~'Cl I r rn I Il ' l t t i t

t l l

l I t t ' l Ja,7L Jan. Jah. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957

Notes : ' For ,Shanghai, the prices of wheat and raw cotton from 1955 are the ' taking

in by purdhase ' prices, those of rice and raw cotton for lg50~52 are maiket

prices, and the price df rice from 1955 is the ' controlled consumption price.'

Source~ : For Shanghai : [1] ; For Tientsin : [38]

of 1953 and before, a fairly conspicuous rise in the ~urchase price index

is clear. Interpreting this at its face iralue, it implies that the budgetary

prices of 1950 were higher than aver~ge purchase prices, but this is clearly

contradictory to the fact that cash payment of taxes in the East-China Region empl6yed market prices in conversidn, as stated above. We have reasons for thinking that this apparent contradiction is connected with

the fact that the food prices for 1952, the base year of the purchase price

index, exhibited violent fluctuations over the whole year, as shown in Figure 2. It may be that these purchases are made in the second half of

each year (and consequently at values a good deal lower than annual average vaiues), and that this has fixated the base year prices at a low

level. On the otheir hand, it inay be that the hahd-over prices between

the fihancial and food Ministries are based on the higher market prices

according to [44], in the six years following the implementatio!1 of planned purchase

of foods in 1953, tha;t is, up to 1959, the rate of increase in the purchase price was no

more than 2.10/0'


of an earlier period in the year, and that these have appeared as the budget prices.32 Again, we may iinagine that there may have been a fair

difference between the items and qualities of food grains covered in the

calculation of the purchase price index and those coveted by the budget

prices, and that the former, may have included item~ with a high rate of

price increase. The same is true of the period from 1953. The observa-

tions in regard to raw cotton are more or leS~ the same as this. The reason for the prices for raw cotton collected by Hsia being a good deal

lower than the budget prices may be that preferential rates had been applied as mentioned above.38 The conclusions from t. he above are as

follows. For the purposes of arriving at real figures for the amount of

taxes paid in kind within exports in the A series the use of time series

data for purchase prices by commodities may be considered suitable, although some questions remain as regards the period of 1953 and earlier.

But since we cannot obtain data of this kind di･rectly, as approximations

it may be permissible for us to suppose ,conStant budget prices, or to

adopt the purchase price index con~erted ~rith the proportion of taxes

paid in kind as weight. In the present study we shall adopt the former.

3) For the purposes of arriving at real figures for imports we have used

Rural Manufactured Products Retail Price Index for manufactured goods, and the Price Index for Purchase of Agricultural and Subsidiary Products for agricultural products,34

The signiflcance of our chobsin~ the 1936-37 prices as base year prices in

the calculation of real imports and exports is that this was the year of peace

immediately preceding the war and civil war which lasted from July, 1937, until immediately before the establishment of the People's Republic of China,

and it is also based on the supposition that there was a relatively free opera-

tion of the inarket mechanism, including the free pursuit of foreig~ trade.

A wholesale price index linking this year and 1952, together with group indi-

ces by stages of processin.g, has : been compiled and published by thd Institute

of Economic Research, Nank'ai University. Esseritial to this index are such questions as the fact that it is a wholesale

price index, that it is a simple geometrical average index; and that it is limited

to the Tientsin area, while there are also supplementary qu~stioris when we

come to link it at year 1952 with other indices elicited from the above inves-

tigations. In this study, however, we have avoided entering any further into

the matter of pre-war base prices, contenting ourselves with outlining the

32 The first provisions for the levying of the Agricultural Tax issued in writing by the

central govermpent were published on the 30th of May, 1950, as " Decisions Relating

to the Summer Levy. of ' Public Food Grain~ ' in the Newly Liberated Areas in 1 950."

38 On the whole the changes in the conversion rate between hsi-liang and raw cotton

between 1950 and 1954 run parallel to those iri the ratio between the prices of food

grains and raw cotton as published by. the government in, each year.

84 The figures for real state investment in capital construction are arrived at by means

of the construction costs index for state capital construction works.


broad movements of real imports and exports in terms of pre-war prices with

the help of the import and export price indices derived elicited from them.

The results of the calculations are included in Table 6.

The firidings which can be got from Table 6 are ( l) that the real import-

export balance calculated in 1952 prices shows a switch from an export sur-plus to an import surplus from about 1953, at a time earlier than that for itnports and exports in current prices, either (a) or (b) series, and that this

import surplus increases in successive years and (2) that in the case of the

1936-37 prices an export surplus is more or less mairitained throughout, but

that the scale of this is later reduced. Compared with the commodity import

surplus condition represented in terms of current prices in Table I and Figure

l, this resultant has connexions with the fact that between 1952 and 1957 the

terms of trade between agriculture and industry were improved by approxi-mately lOo/o, but that nevertheless they were still markedly short of recover-

ing the approximately 300/0 deterioration in terms of trade up to 1952 when

considered in terms of pre-war prices. Table 7 is given as showing the opera-

tion of this terms of trade effect on the formation of a real commodity import

surplus.

In this way the terms of trade effect on real flows of resources differs

decisively as between the two series, but which of the two base periods, then, would it be more plausible to adopt ? Ultimately, the reply to this is

indeterminate, but I think that substantially there is little meaning in attempt-

ing to evaluate real transfers of capital resources in terms of pre-war base

prices, and that it is more meanihgful to do so in terms of 1952 prices. We

explain the reasons for this by means of Figure 3.

Fig"*･ 3. ILLUSTRATION OF DIFFERING EFFECTS IN TERMS OF TRADE BETWEEN AGRICULTURE AND INDUSTRY

> ~*.

::~

~

~sFV

~so

~

o

P6

A Pt ¥¥･ / Al

/ R I'i I,¥¥ / t~ ¥ /

E' : /A' 0$ Po lo ¥ //.

¥ rt / / ~l / Oa

/ /C~ /. ¥ / ¥ Io /// ¥

/// ' -- L ' l? Ot Oo PQ ' o

pAt

Industrial Products

20 The Developing Eco~omies

In the Figure, O indicates the production possibility curve for the whole

country, I the society's indiffererice ctirves with respect to consuinption, and

P the relative price line. ' The suffix z~ro indicates the year 1952, and t

1957. The production Possibility curve Ot is drawn in the Figure in a fairly exaggerated form, but we may , expeqt that in comparison with Oo it should get lairger while inclining sdmewhat towards industrial products. As a

r~~ult of the introduction of socialization and planning the social indifference

curve tomes to be determined by the planners' preferences rather than by the consumers', _ and cdns~quently lo transfoirms to It (by I/t w'e have indicated

the ca~e in IArhich consumers' pteferente rema:ins dominant). Therefore, the

production structure is determined at,point C, and it is inclined more towards

industry than point B, irepresenting 1952 (and also more than point D iri the

case in which It is dominant). Real prices under these conditions will be shown by a price lin6 pt drawn so as to be a tang~nt to both these two curves

It and Ot ~at the point C. If actual prices corresponding to this price lin~

are dominant no real transfer df resources will arise as a result of the terms

of trade effect. Pt reptesents the actually dominant prices, but' we do not know whether it occupies this position in relation to pt Or not. What is

clear to us is that the position of Pt relative to P!o (~quivalent to Po) ipdi-

c~te~ in this way the improvement of the terms of trade of the farm sector.

Although w=~ have omitted it here, it is possible for us to redraw the Figure

with 1936-37 as the ziero year. It will be clear that in such a case Pt will

be on the opposite side of P'o m comparispn with this Figure. We inay also

suppose that Po would not be determined in ~the mannef charact~ristic of a

closed econoiny, as in this Figure, but would be determined in a m~nner which strongly reflected interriational prices.85

Wha.t we have sought to show by me~ns of thiS Figure is the following. As we stated at the beginning of this Sectioh, the price line livhich we should

really follow up in this study is Pt, but since we have no effective means

for arriving at this we have sought an approximation to it by means of P'o.

This kind of attempt becomes significant only ur}der the qonditions where at least, firstly, the shapes of Oo and Ot are comparatively siniilar if not identical

(this means similarity in available technologies, and not only in resource

endowments), and secondly that tbc de~~rmination of Po Should be carried out in a manner which reflects the shape of Oo. We mziy ' suppose that in such cases pt and P/o wili be comparatiyely close. In 19~2 prices we repre-

sent such as P'o. In the case of 1936-37 prices, however, the result is that

85 Figure 3 utilizes the chart used in the methodological studies on the inter-temporal comparisons of national incomb initiated by Richa!rd Moorsteen and elaborated by

Abrum Bergson in [2], pp. 31-35. Their new discovery was th~t as methods for the

evaluation of natiQnal income at two productionj points B and G there are four sets :

OEIOB, OF/OB (OF!/OB), O.CIOH, and OC/OJ (OC/OJ/), and that there are differences

of appropriateness among them. This kind of index number problem of course exists

in our case too, but what we are doing in the present instance is to look for realistic

approxlmatlons to " real prices " as a qu~stion prior to the inde),; number problem.


because of the above two conditions' the suppositioh that pt and p,o are similar

is, in itself unrealistic, even assuming that there is a posSibility of Pt bcing closer

to P; than to 1952 prices. An evaluation i.n teirms of 1936-37 ~rices may be

considered tp p6ssess a significance similar to evaluations of one country's

national income or economic strllcture with the help of the price structure

of another, in that it ignorcs the cases represented by the curves Oo and Ot

(and by extension those represented by ~he curve, s IQ and It). Although it may be significant when looked at from another viewpoint; from the view-point of this study it ceases to. be meaningful.86

The conclusion~ of our studies in this Section are summarized as follows :

(1) Markedly difFerent results are obtained in the evalu4tion of the directions

and scale bf net transfers of real fesources, employing either the A or B ~eries,

according to whether one takes 1952 or 1936-37 prices as the base. If one takes the former, the net position of r.eal resource flows changes from an export surplus to an import surplus from around 1953, and the scale of t.his

increases in successive years. If one. takes. the latter, real resource flows show

an export surplus throughout, and only its scale is reduced. (2) Which of thes~ results is the more plausible is indeterminate, b, ut bea= ring in mind the

significance of the me.thod of evaluating real transfers. in terms of base year

prices, the ~valuaiiori ih terms of 1936-37 prices is seen to be mor6 deficient

in theoretic~l significance.

III. THE MARKETABLE RATIO OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS AND FARM HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION BEHAVIOUR

Since the resultant of our statistical investigation, namely that tbc direc-

tion of net tiansfers of resources between agricultllre and industry in China

in the period 1950-1959 appears to have changed gr~dually froin an outflow frorrL agricultur.e to an inflow into agriculture (or, assuming that there = was

an outflow from agricult, ure throughout, that its scale was reduced in su. cces-

sive years), will be an observation which is contrary to people's. common-

sense, it will probably be particularly necessary for us to app~nd an exami-

nation of the question of what kind of factors led to the producti6n of these

resultants. Howeveir, regar.ding the fact.ors to which particular irriportance should be att~ched in the case of China in the light of a general : and theo-

retical examination. of the determining factors in net resource transfers. I have

already discussed this. matter in my previous studies mentidned at the beginnilrg of this' article, and I would ask the reader to. refer to them.

To bumpaarize them, the theoretical studies were pursued centring on the investigation: of the structural equations describing bQth the relations of

86 The cou. rse of sdeking to estimate the magnitude of li ~tCPt by me~ns of an evaluation

of the ~um of indirect taxes and subsidies will undotibtedly come'to, mind as one meth-

od fof evaluating net transfers of resource~. Howdter, whether indirect taxes and

subsidies in fact constitute an addition to real cos,ts or are a part of real co~ts is a

matter which can be judged only when we have determined the real price line Pt.


supply and demand for the ' inarketed products of the farm sedtor and the relations of supply and demand for manufactured goods of the ndn-agricul-tural sector designed for consumption in the farm sector. As crucial deter-minants of net resource. flows, thty drew attehtion particularly to ( l) the

population growth rate, (2) the iate of rise in the produc~ivity of labour (measured by the hour) in agriculture, (3) the incom~ elasticities of farmers'

consumption, (4) incom6 distribution among the farmers, (5) the marginal fixed capital coefficient iri agriculture, and (6) the magnitude of the inducement

effect on local investment exercised by centralized investmeht. T~tken up in

these studies as providing explanations of the trends in flows of resources in China were the following. Firstly, the high values of ( l) and (5) and the

low value of (2) (this being under the influence of initial conditions common

to developing c6untries in Asia today) are in operation as the dominant factors

promoting an inflow of resources into the farm sector. Secondly, in spite of

the operation of certain factors peculiar to China impeding an inflow of resdurces, namely the tendency for the marginal fixed capital coeflicient to fall

as an ~ccompaniment to the diffusion of small-scale basic investment projects

in conriexion with (5) and the increase in inducetnent effect ~ccompanying the

collectivization of agriculture iri conne~don with (6), they did not succeed in

caricelling out the above-mentioned factors possessing counter-effects. The

question which we propose to raise here is that of (~), the ihcom~ elasticity

of farm consumption and the related marketable ratio of agricultural pro-ducts, a question which was not treated sufficiently in previous studies.

Since our way of raising this questioh i~ partial, Iet us first say something

about the position occupied by net flows of resources within toial determin-

ing factor~. Firstly, as need hardly be ~aid, the marketable ratib of a~ricul-

tutal prbducts refers to the proportion occupied by that part of the total produce of the farm sector which is market-sold. Grasping the scale 0=f the

commercialization of agricultural prdducts from this aspect means, in terms

of the most aggregate factor in net resource flows as previously mentioned,

raising the question of exports from the farm sector in terms of its supply

~spect. We would seem to be called upon to point dut ~s a further implica-

tion that in so far as this marketable ratio fails to rise there is a dangdr of

it becoming very difficult for the non-farm' sector to exceed the growth rate

of the farm sector. This is because at this stage in economic develo~ment the development of the non-fatm sector is conditioned by the incre~sd in labour-supply, which, in turn, is conditioned by the qu~ntities of food grains37

supplied In this way the directions and scale df net fldws of iresourc~s dome

to be determined by how necessary for the purpose of raising the marketable

ratio the products of the non.farm sector aie considered, and by what ways these are actually supplied.

Next, the determinants of the marketable ratio (expresse.d as Axt/At, where quantity of marketable agricultural ~roducts is Axt, alid total of agricultural

37 Strictly speaking, including food grains used for seed and for animal feeding grains

and food grains used for storage.


products At) are, in the most simplified case; the quantity consumed per capita in the farm sector (at) and prodtiction per capita (AtlNt, where farm

population is Nt)' This is expressed as

Axt/At= l-at/(At/Nt)' ' ' ' . . ' ' ' ' * .(1) Expressing farm consumption behaviour. in relation to agricultural pro-

ducts by the income elasticity (c) and using production per capita as an

approximation for per capita income we get

at=a (At/Nt)c . ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' : .(2) (¥Arhere a denotes a constant) an4 if, we substitute this in equation ( 1) we get

Axt/At=1-a (At/Nt) c-1 . . . . . . . . . . .(3) One of the above deterininants, at, is analyzed ir~t6 c and ao (a certain min-

imum level of consumption). Sinc~ under the donditions of the situation prevail-

ing in China in the planning period i~l which the determination of consumption

of farm household is strongly sub,ofdinated to the preferences of the planners

it may perhaps be problematical whether or not a farm household's behav-iour represented by c will have sufB:cient significance for it to be taken into

consideration. However, it is not right to suppose that the farm household's

behaviour is to be completely ignored even in cases where the economy is subject to planners' preferences. We shall carry out the investigation of this

point later, and shall proceed with Qur argument on the basis of equation

(2). To these determihants we dan add ~ few niore. As is at once apparent,

equation (3) takes only income effect into consideration, and does not consider

price effect. But in the light of the results of our investigati:ons in Section

2, we may consider it permissible to omit this from our analysis of this period

in China. At/Nt may be analysed into pioduttivity pef labour-houir and the

degree of over-population in the farm household. These two factors were se-lected for special treatment in my previous studies, but here we shall continue

our investigation without analysing them in this way. Howeter, it may perhaps be well for us ~o add something regarding at least o. ne important

factor, namely the distribution of incomes in the farm sector, a fabtor which

exerts infiuence on farm household consumption per capita. In . this case,

equation (3) becomes Axt/At 2(!' [1 ai(Ait/Nit)ci-1].......... . . . . . .(4)

In the equation, a'i indicates the weights of the various strata of the farm

household measured in terms of total productioh. The analysis of the empirical data in line with these eqtiations must

nevertheless face difEiculties which are even greater than thos~ eonfronting our sttidies in the ' previous Section. this d~rives principaliy from the

fact that, as. the Chinese authorities also recognize, the official statistics for

total agricultural produdtiofl (At) are weakly based. Under the bonditions

obtaining at the present day, when practically all attempts to arrive at an

estimated series for At whic~ would take the = place of the o~cial statistics

can never be anything more than " intellectual guesswork,?' it may .perhaps

be more prudent to work from the basis provided by the official figures such

24 τhθZ）6ロ8！0ゆ動gE‘0π0魏拓5

Eig脈re4． 1斑DICATORS　OF　THE　MARKET旦D　RATIO　OF　FARMPRQDUGTS：．MAINLAND　q耳INA70

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tg50 興952 1954　ユ956　1958

A，Tota1’Farm　Products＝（1）Value　of　marketed　p士odαcts　in　Series　b・（A）in　Tab工c1÷Agricultural　incomc　in　P

　　O魚（証a耳5cries．

（2）ValuβQf　markete4products　i旦Seri¢s　b町（B）in　Tab夏e1牽Agricu1加raHnco皿e葦n

　　O恥ia星、scr三es，

｛3）V準1鵬of皿3rketod　produc熔in　Scr三cs　a・（B〉玉n　Tablo　hAgr三cultural　income　in

　　oHicial五題come．

（4）Value　of　market叫prQducts　in　Series　b・（A）iu　Tゆle1牽Agr五cultural　incomβin

　　Liu　and　Ych　es㎡mates．

（5）Value　of　ma『ketcd　product零in　Series　a・（B）iu　TabIe1＋Agric腿1tural　inco皿e　in

　　LiualdYehcstimates．B．　Food　Gra㎞s；

（6）Q鮮a賦ity　of　markctcd　fbod3rain等in　Tabie8÷quantity　of　total　food　gra㎞

　　production血Table8。（7）Qluantity　of凱arketed　food　gra三魚s　in　Table8÷quantity　of　tota1£ood　grain

　　product三〇n　estImated　by　Liu　and　Ye致。

（8）Qlu灸ntity　of　marke象ed　foQd　gra血s　i4Table8÷興antity　of　tot負1£ood　grain

　　product1q耳estimatcd　by　Y鵬鳳一li　Wu．、

Sourqes＝丁血e　A・（1）一A・（3）Agriσu玉turaエincgme　in　ofHcial　series歪bllows［2ミ〕，pμ15＄，

189，apd［27］晃p，，56．

The　A・（4）Li覗a無d　Ych　seri¢s　follows［35コンppほ40，66L　The　B一（3）Liu　aud　Y61真

esε量mates恥11・ws［35］・P2432・663・丁血eB・（4）Yu4黙・1iWuestimatqs一舳ws、〔3］・1

－P

．86・

Notes＝（i）Agricultural　income　in　o｛琉ial　series・面A・（1）一A一（3）箆fers　to　income　ex－

clusive　of　the　inco狙e　accruing　from　the・・handicr諭pr6duction　done　by　the・£arm

households．　1なcontrast，3gricα1tural　i摯come　i琵Liu　and　Yeh　series孟s五nclu毒ve　of　it・

Resoul~ce Flow between Agl'iculture a,id Industry 25

(ii) The yalues of agricu.Itural incorne in A are all evaluated in terms of the 1952

prices. The values of marketed products given in Table I are in terms of curfent

prices. However, fronl the discussion in the text related to Table 5, it is evident

t.hat the accounting prices of those products paid as the Agricultural Tax in kind are

in 'fact a consfant price. Therefore, for computing the l~rarketed ratio~ of farm pro-

ducts in Serie~ a, the amounts of purchases by State and Co-operative dommerce

plus sales in the free market are converted into 1952 prices terms by the use of

the oificial, onLthe-farm price index of marketed farm products given in [27], p. 55, as deflator. To ' the conterted amouhts are added the amounts ofA~ricultural

Tax paid in kind to derive the total values of marketed farm products in the 1952

prices. With regard to the values of marketed products in Series b, the total values

shown are defiated accor,ding to the above procedure. (iii) The 1958 values of total

marketed- products in Series A are derived by assu~ning that the rate of increase in

the values from 1957 to 1958 is equal to that in Series B.

as they are, and toi look into the question of the manner in which these figures are distorted by any biase~ which may be expected to lie concealed

in them. In the present study we shall follow this course.

First, in Figure 4 we give annual series for the marketed ratio ' with total

farm sector exports as estimated in Table I as dividend, and total net incomes

from agricultural produQtion in the ofiicial estimat~S as divisor.[Lines ( l), (2),

and (3)] In the Figure the marketable rate for food grains, which may be considered tQ have great, e.r reliability in the figures for the dividend, is also

exhibited. [Line (6)] The details of the estimation are given in Table 8. Again, w. e have produced other marketable ratio series in which the figures

of T. C. Liu-K. C. . Yeh and of Yuan-1i Wu, who have ptiblished estimates to ireplac~' the ofEcial figures, are substituted for the talues in the divisor alone

(the values in the dividend'remaining the sarne as above), and these are also

exhibited in Figure l. [Lines (7), and (8)~

What thd Table conveys to us is : (i) that the ofiicial series, with the

exception pf ( l), ~xhibit similar movements in the case bf both total exports and ~rain exports and t. hat after th~ b~ginning 0.f the Five-Year Plan they

reach a. peak in 1954 and thereafter prQgressively decline, and (ii) that ~he Liu-

Ye.h series. ~xhibit moverr~ents which are markedly different from the official

series as regards total exports, and in partic. ular the movements are in the

opposite direction in 1956-1957 and theireafter. As regards grains, the values

are lower than the official series for the period of 1957 and before, and in

particular for 1954; while from 1958 movement in the opposite directioh is exhibited.

Limiting the matt~r to the estimation of food grain prQduction (the Liu-

Yeh ind. ependent ~stin~ation of. incomes from ag.ricultural production is essen-tially the rev. isiqn of the. official estimation of agricultural inc. omes in res~ect only

to the statistics f,or food grain prod; uction) we find one of the causes produci~lg

this kirld of difference in the following fac. t. Both Liu-Yeh and Wu consider

that the ofiicial statistics of 1956-1957 and before are over-estimates of actual

output and have corrected them by carrying out a " backward projection " from: 1956-1957, of such an order'as to produce more or less constant figures


fot per capita food grains consumption (p~r Chinese citizen) from 1952. We, too,

recognize that there were over-estimates in the early statistics, but we think

that these do not affect the peak reached by the marketed rate in 1954 and subsequent declining trend. Another cause is the deliberate reduction of the

official figures for 1958-1959 in the estimates published in both these studies.

Over-estimation j n these two years is a matter upon IA'hich majority opinion

is in agreement, but as regards the question of whether the marketable ratio

based on corrected figures for thes6 years would be greatly in excess of that

for 1954 or not, we are, if anything, of a negative opinion.

In the same way as the grounds for the revision of the statistics under-

taken by these authors are conjectural, the observations which we have made

above are based on our own conjectures,a8 but a more decisive explanation is to be found in the examinatiorL of farmers' cohsumption behaviour which

we shall presently undertake. We think that on the basis of it we shall be

able to show that after having reached its peak in the planning period in 1954 the marketable ratio declined gehtly, and that after having again in-

creased in 1959 (this, however, is outside the period dealt with here) it declined

once more.89

88 Our position as regards the oincial statistics of agricultural output is that while we

recognize that the reliability 'of Chinese agricultural statistics is reduced by biases due

to the deficiencies in survey methods and the individualistic interests of the reporters,

attempts to replace these staiistics by certain definit~ correcied figures must, ~t present,

be limited piincipally to correcting backwards in time when land unreported with intention to evade taxation is discovered. As an instance connected with such unreported

cultivated land, it is known that as a result of the " Investigation-of-fields and Deter-

mining-of-output Work " between 1951 and 1952, the only survey of cultivated area

and volume of production carried on a national scale, at least before the end of the

First Five-Year Plan period, the existence of a large area of " black lapd " was brought

to light. ([28] first edition, p. 286.) Thirty million mou of unreported cultivated land was

also discovered in the course of agricultural co'operativization, but for statistical pur-

poses this wzis couhted as reclaimed land ([17], p. 22). On the other hand, we can cite

the inadequacy of the crop reporting system as the reason for the lack of reliability in the sta~istics for agricultural production, particularly in the initial period, but there

exist no grounds sufEcient to sup~ort the judgement that this fact produced under-

reporting on an organized scale in the initial period. Albeit that this repdrtingi system

has been successively improved, in 1957 there were still many provinccs which were not

even totaning the reports from the outlying villages, and the gaps were bcing filled with

estimated figures. From 1958 randorrL sample surveys were put into effect over the

whole country in parallel with the regular reporting system, but the methods employcd

had many defects. A deficiency in calory levels in comparison with pre.war levels of

an order which is scarcely to be believed is cited as a reason for considering the statis-

tics of the initial period to be under-estimates, but vyhether this deficiency is in fact

scarcely to be believed or not is a matter which still requires a full-sdale ~tudy.

39 the Peking correspondent of the Tokyo h4:aihichi reported a summary of M~o tse-

tung's speech at the Tenth Plenum of the Central Committee of~he Chinese Communist

P~rty (originally reported by a wall newspaper). The speech said in part that " we

haYe committed a humber of mistakes in 1959 and 1960. . . . One of the majof inistakes

Resource Flow between Agliculttcre alid I･ndustry 27

Next we shall look into the question of what were the factors producing

these movements of the marketable ratio, doing so along the lines of equations

(1) to (4) and confining our attention, as before, t6 food grains.

(1) The official data relating to change~ in the average ' at ' of total farm

households are given in Table 9. The question of the over-estimation of At

in the early period which we mentioned above applies to the estimates such

as this which set out from total production, but taking into consideration

the figures revealed by the receipt and expenditure surveys of farm house-holds and agricultural production co-operatives we think that it is unlikely for

farm household consumption to have beerl unchanged or to have declined. (2) It is extremely dif~icult to evaluate the absolute level of ' at ? with

reference to the scale of satisfaction of the farm household and an independ-

ent study is required for this matter, but in the light of a comparison with

the pr.e-war flgures estimated by J. L. Buck and shown in Table 9, the evalu-

ations made by the food administration authorities which. we shall discuss

below, and the accounts given in official publications regarding rural consumption levels,40 we think that it cannot be denied that the food consumption of the 1956-1957 Ievel still remained close to the minimum consumption level.

(3) Regarding At/Nt for average of total farm households, even assuming that the rate of increase of At is the same as that of total population, it must

be expected to show a net increase since the rate of increase of the farm pop-

ulation must be expected to have been lower than that of total population. (4) It is difficult to estimate values for c s~ long as reliable series for at

and At/Nt are unobtainable, but we surmise that at least between 1954 and 1957 the valtie of ip may well have been somewha:t greater than unity. For

the income elasticities of food grains to be greater than unity is extra-

ordipary in the light of the common-sense of international comparisQns,41

and the approximate values of the cross-section obtained from Table 10 by

an approximation methods are also less than unity (calculated from series

A-7 and A-4), but the decisive grQunds for such an estimation are to be found in our qualitative judgement regarding food policy from 1954 onward.

The latter also provides an answer to the question of the significance of

the behaviouristic equation accompanying ip to which we have referred above. As stated above, 1954 is the peak year of the marketable ratio but,

as the government itself recognized, the planned purchases in that year were clearly excessive, and the balance remaining after deducting from production the taxes paid in kind and planned purchases was not sufficient

to meet the minimum quantities required for holding by the peasantry. By the time the spring of 1955 was reached there were deficiencies in the re-

was regarding the government procurement of food gtains. . . . The quantities of the

procurement wer~ raised, byt there were in actuality not as many food grains in the

country side as would make possible such procurengent." (The Mainichi. March 9, 1967.)

40 On this subject [57] is the best source,

41 For India [39], particularly pp. 8.0-81.


distribution of food grains to farm households suffering from food-shortage.

For this reason there were " Give Us Food " disturbances Over an extensive

area of China in April and May of that year, unrest in the minds of the

peasantry being a contributory factor.42 On the basis of this experience the government decided on the so-called Three Fix~ed Policy issued in the

order of August, ~1955. The points conta;ined in it which are of importance

in connexion with the matter in hand are as follows.43

a) The order fixed the amounts of normeL1-year production, purchases, and food redistribution in respect to all the far,m households in the coun-

try. The former two amounts were pegged for three years. However, provision was n)ade for the increasing of ptrchases by up to 400/0 in areas

~vith abundant harvests in case of the state being unable to maintain a balance in its receipts and disbursements of food grains as a result of the

occurrence of naturaf disasters. The zimounts of food to be redistributed

were to be fixed annually.

b) In general purchases were to be made in respect to 80-900/0 of･ surplus food grains in the possession of fariners having a surplus of food. " Sur-

plus food grains " were defined as meaning confrmed production in the

normal year minus domestic food requirements (food grains for domestic

consumption, feeding of animals, and seed) and taxes paid in kind. The quantities of food g.r~Lins alloc~ted to domestic consumption and feeding

of animals were to be =determined in accordance with the " general con-

sumption levels prevailing in each region.

Supplementary purchases in respect to the increase in productiQn ac-

cruing under these regulations were carried out with some severity at the

end of 1957, and as a result there was some increase in the volume of marketed food gtains but basically we xnay take, it that the 1955 decisions

ruled throughout.44 Further to this, the provisions laid down in April, 1958,

direct that during eadh･ of the years of the Second Five-Year Plan taxes paid. in kind and planned purchases should be stabilized at the levels of

the 1957 food year.45 It seems that these provisions were virtually abandon-

ed in 'l959, but it would appear to be clear that the spirit embodied in these various regulations consisted in a recognition of the fact that under

the conditions of the then levels of ~roduction and consumption in the farm sector it wats advantageous from th~ point of view of the National

Economy, and not merely from the point of view of the producers, to per-

mit the value of c to exceed uriity.

(5) While in the above we have been considering average values for

4z Editorials in the People's Daily, June 18, 1955 and Aug. 29, 1955. See also the Yang

Wei-Iin report in the People's Daily. June 26, 1955.

4~ [48], pp. 160-162.

44 State Council Supplementary Provisions for Controlled Purchases and Controlled Consumption of Food Grains of October 11, 1957. ([49], Vol. =6, pp. 351-354.)

45 Some Provisions of the State Council Regarding the Improvement of the Food Cdn-trol Systern of April ll, 1958. ([49], Vol. 7, pp. 281-283.)


the farm sector. Table 10 gives the material relating to the determinants of

the marketable ratio in line with equation (4), which takes into considera-

tion changes ih inbome~ or the distribution of wealth within that class. The

basic data are derived from the Survey of Farm Households Receipts and Expenditures of 1954, but hypothetical calculations have been included fof the preceding period. The mafketable ratio declined markedly under the influence of the leyelling effect on the distribution of land exercised

by the Land Reform. Since that time changes in ' the distribution of land

have continued to occur, ~ilthough on a small scale. These changes have taken the form of a rise of peasants of the lower stratum into the middle

stratum on the one hand, and on the other hand a decline in the average area of cultivated land held by the members of each of these two strata.

We lhay suppose that the levelling of the distribution of land proceeded still further after the collectivization of 1955. This may be expected to have had the effect of lowering the marketable ratio.

As conclusions of the above examination we estimate that two factors which caused a decline in the marketable ratio on the supply side of mar-keted food grain, 'and which con~equently had a tendency to promote a net outflow of resources from the farm s~ctor, were constantly in o~eration. We

may say that the switch from a real export surplus to a real import surplus

during the period of the First-Five Year Plan, or alternatively the gradual

decline in the real export surplus, occurred with at least these two factors

included among the important factors involved.4e

IV. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

Our conclusions from the above examination- may be summarized as fol-10ws.

( l) Our study is still weak from the point of view of the data employed,

but the results of our revisionary ~rork concerning net outflow and inflow

of real resources in the Chinese farm sector between 1949 and 1959 still show that the net position is that a change frorri an export surplus to an

import surplus seems to have taken place in response to the expansion of ebonomic development during the period of the First Five-Year Plan, and that it would s~~'m to be charaeterized ~)y the fact that this import surplus

grew over time.

(2) When we look into the mdvements of the marketed rate of agricultural products, particularly food grains, as one of the aggregate factors infiuencing

Suoh a net resource flow position, we find that if anything they a~peai to have

*,G Considered :in relation to future prospects, the principal factor, alongside the investi-

gation regarding consumption made in this Section, is the tendency to increased demand

fo, agricultural production godds originating in the non-agricultural sector and fequired

for the raising of agricultural productivity. The influence exerted on net transfers of

real resources can be found by inter-industry analysis. This study we shall publish at

andther opportuhity.


been following a declining trend between 1954 and 1957. (3) We have carried out an examination of the farm household's behaviour

in respect to domestic consumption of agricultural products as one of the determinants of the marketed ratio of agricultural products. We have inferred

that the income elasticity of the average farm household is extremely high because the present levels of consumption of food grains in the farm household

are extremely low and because the distribution of income is being equalized.

Government cdntrol of commercialization of agricultural products during the

period was very far-reaching and powerful, but the gov~rnment was obliged

to give recognition to farm consumption behaviour in line with this income

elasticity. There was a danger that if the government repressed this to an excessive degree there would be a decline in the farmer's desire to increase agri-

cultural production and there ~vould eventually be social unrest. 1954, which

represented the peak attained by the marketed ratio, ~vas the year in which this kind of situation revealed itself. (It appears that the same situation also

arose in 1959 and 1960.) A comprehensive examination of determining factors

has not been carried out, but at the beginning of Section 111 a summary is

given of the broad conclusions reached in studics conducted as a preliminary

to the investigation of the importance in China of such factors as rate of population increase, rate of rise in the productivity of labour in agriculture,

its marginal fixed capital coeflicient, and the inducement effect of centralized

investm~nt on local investment. Considering these iTl association ~vith the

conclusion given under (3) above, it would appear that these are conformable

with the results of statistical examination of outflow and inflow of real capital

resources given under ( l).

What implications, then, do these conclusions have for the question of the mobilization of development funds for the developing countries in general,

and especially for the mobilization of funds for ilidustrialization ?

(a) One of the largest features of China in comparison with other countries

on the way to development is that in China the market mechanism is much more strongly subject to limitations and that the socialization of the economic

unit, including that of the farm household, is advancing mbre rapidly. Con-

sidering this in relation to the subject dealt with in this article, one aspect which is subject to direct influence from these features is the aspect

relating to the consumption behaviour of the farm household. Contrary to expectation, however, even under the conditions imposed by this institutional

background the government has been unable entirely to negate farmers' be-haviour in relation to food consumption, and it has been obliged to maintain

the psychological stability of the peasantry and to give recognitiorL to the

operation of peasant income elasticity in relation to food consumption within

the limits necessary for the maintenanct of incentives to increased production.

We must look for the basic causes producing such a situation in those initial

conditions characteristic of contemporary developing countrics, conditions

represented by a low level of agricultual production and a low level of peas-

ant consumption. Because bf tbcse, it is only with great di~iculty that the

Resource Flow between Agriculture ard I nd ustry 31

restrictions imposed on the marketihg of agricultural produdts can be over-

come, notwithstanding the advantages produced by institutional reforms. Conversely, again, it may happen that institutional reform (through its equal-

izing effect on the distribution of incomes) will strengthen these restrictions.

(b) Arnong the other principal factors influencing outflow and inflow of capital resources in the farm sector, too, there are included such factors as

will promote a net outflow of resourcesi rather than t~1e rdverse, under the conditions of institutional reform. Viewed as a whole, however, the

gre~Lter part of these promote a net inflow of capital resources under the

special initial conditions of economic development common to developing countries at the present day. When we evaluate the. resultants which have

emerged from the improved statistical studies of resources outflow and inflow

in China against the background of this kind of examination of determining

factors we are led to think that we should support all the more strongly the opinion that perhaps it may be very dif~cult to look to the farin sector

for the capital funds required for industrialization in the course of the development of the backward countries of the piesent day. (c) If we assume that it will be very dif~cult to depend on the farm sector

for the funds required in industrialization, we must answer the question of

whence the primitive accumulation funds in the development process in the developing countries at the present day are to be provided. I thirik that in

those developing countries of the present day ~rhich were either colonies or

semi-colonies in the past the legacy from the colonial period docs much to fulfll this function. This includes not only social overhead capital but also

ditectly productive investment (such as Japanese investment in manufacturing

and mining in Manchuria). There is. no doubt that the wealth of merchants and financiers made available out of the circulatory process also occupies a

considerable proportion. However, I wish to leave studies of these questions

to the future.

32 7フ短Z）8ッθJoPづπgE60π0窩記3

Table1．AGRICULTURAL　SECTOR　EXPORTS　IN　RELATION　TO

1950　　　　　　1951　　　　　　1952

1・Commodity　Exports　l，Payment　of　Agricu玉tural　Taxes　in　Ki且d

　2．　Sales　of　Agricultural　and　Farm　Subs1diary　　　　Industry　Products　to　State　Commercc3nd　　　　Cbnsumers’Co・operat1ves

3．　Sales　on　Free　Market

呵二器脚IL　Commod呈ty　Imports

　　l　　Industria真Products　Purchased

2。

3．

4．

（1）

（2）

From　State　Commerce頒d　Co－operatives

From　Fre6Market

2．20

｛（A）

（B）

｛（A）

（B）

｛（A）

（B）10。20

｛（A）

（B）　8。0

（A）

2．85

7．68

3．96

14。49

13．35

11．64

茎0．50

3．07

10．31

6．48

5．30

6。49

18．68

16．04

15．61

12。97

9。44　　　　　10．47

1．34　　　　　　4、32

8．10　　　　　6．15

i）Pr・ducti・nG・・dsPurchased　｛留α731㊥　141

超，、器鼎器、9鐙，講sed　l盤　　　、認i）　State　Food　Distribut互6n

ii）OthersState　Investme血t　in　CaPital　Construction　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　O，60

Tota1、　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　15．30

Procedures：　1－1　For1950－1957：Figures　are　obtaiΩed　by　deducting　taxes　paid　in　cash

£rom　total　agricultural　taxes　and　loca1　菖upPlementary　taxes　by　fisca1（calendar）years　as

shown　in［28L　pp．153，199。The　Agr1cuItural　Taxes　paid　hl　cash　are　given　in　pp，114and・

168－1690f　l281．The　proportion　to　total　Agricultural　Tax　is　assumed　to　be　applicゆ1βin

the　case　of　thdocal　supplementary　taxes　also．，For1958；［33】，p。2L　The　sum　of　the

Agricultural　Tax　and　local　supplementary　taxes　is　published　as　being37thousand　mi1Hon

粥伽，The　figure　in　the　Table　has　been　calcu量ated　by　deduction　at　the　rate　of　payment

in　kind　in，respect　to　Agricultural　Tax　in1957，85％。　For1959：［341、The　sum　Ievied　as

Agricultural　Tax　w換s3。3thousand　mill圭on2即η，　This　is　the　same　as　the6gure　given

in　the1959budget　given　in［341。　It　is　assumed　that　the　local　taxation　budget　of　O，磁

thousand　mi1Honフ吻～was　similarly　the　same　as　in　that　budget。The且g皿e　in　the　Table

is　arrived　at　by　multiplying　the　total　of3。74thousand　millionク撚πby　the　same　coefHcent

of85％。As　stated　in　the　text，there　is　a　distinction　between　budgetary　and　tax－revenue

years　in　the　Agricultura夏Tax　accounting，and　it　is　clearly三ndicated　that　these　ngures　for

1959appertain　to　the　former　category，but　since　the　level　of　taxation　was　stable　we　have

reason　to　suppose　that　these　figures　were　the　same　as　those　for　the　tax・revemユe　year．

1－2一（A）The　figures　in　this　series　are　derived　fmm　the6gures　published　by　the　State

Statistical　Bureau　up　to　1958。（The　same三s　the　case　hcreinunder。〉The　Representative

sources　are＝（a）［581，pp．4一フ，（b）［631an｛1［641，pp．24ff．，（c）【671，pp．28－29．Among

these，　（a）and　（b）give　the“total　value　of　agrまcultural　products　taken　by　purc五ase　by

Society。”　Figures　fbr　“total　value　of　agricultural　products　taken　by　purckase　by　State

Commerce　and　Co・operative　Commerce，’can　be　elicited　with　the　help　of　a　sまmple　assump一

Rθ50z6r‘θFZo㎜ゐθ≠型68，z且97z必z‘あz‘プθ‘zπ4乃z4％5耽y 33

NON・AGRICULTURAL　SECTOR　AND　BREAKDOWN（iuthousandmil1玉onグ鋸4π）

1953　　　　　1954　　　　　　！955　　　　　1956　　　　　　1957　　　　　1953－57　　　　　1958　　　　　1959

　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　Total

2．80　　　　　　　3．04　　　　　　　3．00　　　　　　　2．68

8．19　　　　　12。10　　　　　12、96　　　　　13．32

8．85　　　　　　5．96　　　　　　5．92　　　　　　6．58

19．84

18．12

17．0を

15，32

21．10

20．40

18．06

17．36

2L8920．80

18．89

17．80

22」23

21．〔B

19．55

18．40

2．93

15．62

14．92

6．28

5．36

24．83

23，21

21．90

20．28

14．45　　　　　　3，15　　　　　　3．18

62。19

58、20　　　　　　18。8　　　　　　24．10

33．25

30．96　　　　　　　3．96

109．89

103．61　　　　　25．91

95．44

89．16　　　　　22．76

12．99

7．37

5．62

2。65

1．92

10．34

4．70

2．73

1．97

0．77

18．46

14．76

8．4婆

6．32

3．00

2，50

11，76

4．84

3．10

1．74

0．42

20．02

15．14

9．15

5．99

3．10

2．82

12．04

8．90

3．27

5．63

0．62

24．66

17。19

10．12

7．07

4。52

3．70

12．67

9．20

3，70

5．50

1．19

27．18

16，82

12．43

4．39

3．96

3．26

12．86

9．70

3，90

5．80

1．19

27．71

76．90

47。51

29．39

17。23

14．20　　6，68　　8．1559。67

37．34

16．70

20．64

　4．19　　　　　　2．63

118．03　　　　　　　34．20

tion　if　it　is　assumed　that　these　transact玉ons　take　place　at　the　same　pr…ces　as　those　of

other　transactions　on　the　free　market。　This　assumption　is　not　realistic　but　it　is　an

assumpt呈on　which　is三mplied　when　as　a　pract玉cal　question　we　apply　the　same　taking．by．

purchase　pr…ce　index　to　the　total　value　taken　by　purchase　by　Society・

1－2一（B）The　figures　in　this　series　are　derived　from　theβgures　published　by　the　State

Statistical　Bureau　since1959．（The　same　is　the　case　hereinunder。）Representative　sour¢es

are；（d）【551and（e）［51】，　Tke且gures　for　1958and　before　in　this　series　are　derived　from

these　sources、　The　figures　for　l959　have　been　extrapolated　with　the　rates　of圭ncrease

over　the　previous　year　given　in［81，P．32。

1－3　These　figures　representcd　the　difference　between　I－4一（b）and　I－2・Among　them，source

（c）u皿der　I－2一（A）prov五des　a　ckeck　for　the1953－56最gures　of　thε1－3一（b）ser量es三皿重he恥rm

of五guires　for　value　of　agricultural　pr、oducts　sold　in　the　f士ee　market　evaluated　in　terms　of

retail　prまces．These　sums（together　with　purchase　and　retail　price　margins）are　as　follows：

In1953，9．97thousand　million廻απ（12・7％），in1954，7・02thousand　millionン即π（17・8％），

in1955，6。804thousand　m玉11ion鐸αη（14．9％），and　in1956，7。499thousandク鋸餓（里4。0）．

14　（a）Series。Totals　made　on　the　assumption　that　the　value　of　purchases・by　State

Commerce　and　Co・operatives　under　I－2do　not　include　taxes　levied　in　klnd　u血der　the

Agricultural　Tax，1－L（b）Series．　Tot換ls　made　on　the　assumption　that　I－2represents

ρollected　figures　including　tQtal　of　I－1・　Thi3mea皿s　that　the　“total　value　of　agricultural

products　taken　by　purchase　by　Socicty”in　source（a）and　thc“total　value　of　agr五cultur換1and

farm　subsidiary，量ndustry　products　taken　by　purchase”in　source（d）correspond　to　this　total。

II4～II－2　The　sources　used　in　the　estimation　of　these五gures　are　give夏aot、in　terms　of

34 7「hθ　Z）θワ8Zg1》づπg　E60πo”zJ63

farm　sector　but　in　te㎜s　of　the　rural（nung・ts‘un）sector，and至n　order　to　make　them

compamble　with　the　figures　in　the　items　under　I　above，they　have　all　been　adjusted　to

figures　for　the　agricultural　sector　by　using　the　proportion　betΨeen　agricultural　produc－

tion　and　rural　population・As　regαrding　the　determining　of　this　proportion，（1）annual

average　rural　population丘gures　are　given　in　［59］，PP，24－25　αnd　［66】，PP。6－9；（2）Ggures

for　“£arm　population，，in　1952　and　1956　are　given　in［361，　PP．34－41；　andく3）　£rom

thcse　two　we　have　found　the　proportions　in　the　two　years1952and1957（94・9％　and

93．2％）and　have　extrapo！ated　by　equal　difference　for　the　other　years．

II－1一（1）既nd（2）These五gures　are　calculated　from　sQurces（a）and（b），They　rest　on　the

same　assumptions　as　I－2一（A）．

II－1－i一（A），II－1－ii一（A），and　IL2．Basic換11y　these　are　derived　from　the五gures　given　in

accordance　witk　the　preliminary　accounts　of　the　Head　OHice　of　the　Chinese　Consumers，

Co嬬operatives　as　given　in［101。　For　the　significauce　of　these　figures，scc［271，PP．　175－180・

The　points　requ三ring　commentary玉n　this　connexion　are　the50110wing　l1）The　general

framework　of　the　series　of丘gures　given　here　is　that　of　the“value　of　rural　retail　com・

modity　trad血g”witLin　the“total　value　of　retail　commodity　trading　in　Society。，，As

stated　in　the　textラit　is　clea』r　that　since　1957changes　have　been　m批de　in　the　content　of

this　concept　regarding　the・“farmers’　trade”　and　“production　goods　for　rural　areas”

and　the　series　used　hcre　date　from　beforβthis　time。　Consequently，we　have　speci且ed

these　as　the　A　series　in　accordance　with　the　distinction　between　A　and　B　series　as　in　the

section　I　of　the　Table，but　even　so　at　Ieast　one　great　ch＆nge　in　the　estimation　of“rural

retai玉commodity　trading”has　been　made　in　the　period　covered．This　Oh‘u・Ghu　series

dates　from　before　this　change，and　as　ser玉es　dating　from　after　the　change，we　have　the

series　derived　from　source（a）under　I－2－A。Comparing　these　two　sets　of　value　for“ruraI

retail　commodity　trading”we　get　the　following．（in　thousand　millionク襯η）

　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　1953　　　　　1954　　　　　1955　　　　　1956　　　　　1957

　　　Statistical　Research　Series　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　21．61　　24．56　　24．81　　　Ch‘u－Chu　Series　　　　　　　　　　　　　　18．38　　　　20，83　　　　25．60　　　　28．27

1n　the　Table　the　Ch‘u・Ghu　series　has　been　adopted　because　of　its　value　in　providセ｝g　a

breakdown　of　the　value　of　retail　trading、　2）As　regards　the“total　valuc　of　rural　retail

com魚odity　trading1’£or　other　years　obtained　from　the　Ch‘u－Chu　series，we　have　based

ourselves　on　the　following．For1957the且gure　has　b㏄n　arrived　at　by　assum三ng　that　the

ratio　be伽een　the　Statistical　Research　series　and　the　Ch‘u－Chu　series　in1956as　in　the

preceding　paragraph　was　applicable　to1957．For1952we　have　followed　the　statementappearing　in　lllI，p・27that　the　rate　Qf　increase　in　value6f　rural　retail　commodity　trading

between1952and　1953was18・4％・Regarding1958it　is　stated　in［30】，p・30that　thevalue　of　rural　retail　commodity　trading　in　I958had　increased　by　more　tぬan20％overI957。This　is　clearly　a（B）series　figure，but　we　have　arrived　at　our丑gure　on　the　assump●

tion，thattheratioisthesameasintheAseries．II－1－i一（B）The丘gures　are　derived　from　l551，p。150and［291，

II－2－i　The五gures　for“volume　of　foo（1grains　supplied　by　the　State　to　the　rural　areas’，

（ih　terms　of　hsi4iang，not　including　beans）for　the　period　from1953to1956（expected）are

given　in［571．On　the　other　hand，it　is　stated　in　l441that　the　margin　between　contr611ed

purchase　and　consumers’price　for　food　in　thc　rural　area　between1953and1959remainedconstant　at　around8％，We　regard　the　controUed　purchase　price　as　being　the　same　astぬe　conversion　price　used　in　fisca1a（1m1nistration、　From　this　we　can　fi且d　the　value　of

total　rural　redistribution。This　is　adjusted　to　apply　to　the　agricultural　sector　in　accordance

甫tll　procedure　given　abo》e，　For　other　years　we　have　est三mated　on　the　basis　of　the

reported　l76．4thousand　mi11ion　catties（threshed　weight）sold　to　the　mral　areas　over丘ve

years　as　mentioned　in，final　QHicial　report　o訟，the　Firstマive－Year　Plan　by　the　State　Statis騨

tical　Bureau，and　on　the丘gures　in　t壱rms　of　food　years　given　in　the　Table．

HI－2－ii　［271，p．162，

R850μπθ．FZO脚み6伽88η1生gr加伽78απ4動伽礎y 35

T8ble2。 BREAKDOWN　O』F　MARKETED　PRODUCTS　OF　AGRICULTURE　ANDFARM　SUBSIDIARY　INDUSTRY　PRODUGTS（at　Pmducers，Prices）　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　（inthousandmillion鐸α”）

1953 1954

Actual　　　　　　　　　　　　　ActualF三gurepe「centagcFigurepe「centagc

L　Value　of　Agricultural　Tax　Levied　in　Kind

　　　a．　Food　Gmins

　　　b．Raw　Cotton　　　c．　　Others

2．Value　of　Plan皿ed　Purchase　Goods　Supplied

　　　a．Food　Grains

　　　b．　Raw　Cotton

　　　c，　Oil－bearing　Crops

3．Value　of　Purchases　of　Goods　under　　　U皿ified　Purchase

塗．Value　of　Sales　in　Free　Market

　　　a，　Planned　Purchase　Goods

　　　ヒ：9欝d認haseG。。ds　｝

5．Tota1

2，80＆

2．54b

O．20b

O．06b

5．30c

3．66e

1．15f

O．49f

2．89α

8．85＆

1．16c

7．69d

19。84＆・

14．！

12．8

1．0

0。3

26．7

18．4

5．8

2．5

14．6

44．6

5．8

38．8

100．0

3．04＆

2．80b

O．16b

O．08b

7．3互c

5．246

1．44f

O．63f

4．78α

5．96乱

’0．36c

5．60d

21．10巳

14．4

13．3

0．8

0．4

34．6

24．8

6。2

3．0

22。7

28．2

1．7

26．5

100．0

Remarks3a．Fr6m　Table1．b，Figures　calculated　from［281，pp．168－169，189．It　has　bcen　assumed　that　the　propor葡

tions　occupied　by　each　item　in　the　Agricultural　Tax　and　tbe　local　supplementary　taxcs

are　the　same．As　the　unit　price，we　have　used　the　accounting　pr三ces　used　in　budgeting

as　shown　in　Table5．

c．　Fまgures　taken　directly　£rom　［671．

α。Differences　between　figures　marked“a”and6gures　marked“c”．A3a　result　of　a

check　it　has　been　made　clear　that　the且gures　given　in【671and［581，have　been　arrived

at　by　tむe　same　est玉mat量on　procedure．

e．Prod皿ct　of　food　purchases　by　State　and　Co・operative　Commerce　shown　in　Table8

and　the　accounting　prices　used　in　budget三ng　given　in　Table5、

f。　Arrived　at　by　proportional　div三s呈on　of　the　balance　remaining　after　deduction　of　mar－

keted　value　of　food　grains　from　value　of　pl＆nned　purchase　goods　supplied　by　the　gross

output　ratio　for　cotton　and　oil・bearing　crops　（0．7＝03）given　in　respect　to　these　惚o

years　in［351，p、397．This　amount　to　assuming　that　the　ratios　between　value　suppHed

and　value　produced　were　the　same　in　these　two　years，In　I953　this　ratio　was50。0％

and　in　l954，69．4％，figures　which　are　a　good　deal　lower　than　those　given　i夏【651，p、13，

namely，　74，9％　　in　the　1952　cotton　year，79。8％　　量n　the　1953　cotton　year，　and　73。7％　　in

the195蛋cotton　year，We　may　add　that　the　marketed　portions　of　these　twoαops　are

equal　to　the　value　supplied　with　the　addition　of　the　value　sold　in　the£ree　market圭E

series4－a。（Excluding　value　of　food　sold。Assum血g　that　the　rat1o　betwee夏va1腿e　supp践ed

and　value　of　sales　in　free　market　remained　the　same　over　these　three　years・）

36

Tab！e・3．

TゐθD即θ」ρμπg　Eooπ07雇θ5

STATE　COMMERGE　AND　SUPPLY　AND　MARKETINGCOiOPERATIVES’PURCHASE　OF　FARM　ANDSUBSIDIARY　PRODUCTS

価血i皿重o血押η）

1952　　　1953　　　1954 1955　　1956　（total）

A。Total　Pμrchases　by　Supply　and　　　　Market量ng　Co甲o裏》eratives

　　　　L　OnO加nAcOo題血t

　　　　2。As　St斧te　Agents

B．Total　Purchases　by　State　Co魚merce

1．　On　Own　Account

　　　2．Throhgh‘S賦pply　and　MarketiΩg　　　　　　　　Co－operat量ves，

d．　Total　Purchase　by　CO・operatives　and

　　　　State　Commcrce

3，882

　8132，887

重L　a．

5，629

1，385

4，244

n．a．

nφag　　n。a．

2，8874，244

7，937

1，826

6，111

｛7，638

7，362

｛1，5271，25互

6，111

a・a・n・島　｛3；縄

nのa．

1，875

n．a。

ng　a．

nのa．

血．a，

n．a。

4，594

3，037

1，557

訂．a，

nじaD

1，557

n．ap

Note；AsfortheHgureswfittednparallelintheseveralcolumnsBandC，since孝tiswritten　in［15］“St飢e　Agency　Purchases　of1954（value　of　purchases　by　state　commerce）

amounted　to　more　than80％　of　totai　state　taking　in　by　purchase，”the　ratiQs　there　of　are

shown　iゑto　the　two　cases　of80％and83％，

S6uf66s：　【151，［gl，a血d　［50］ゴ£or6ach　ye註r．

R850耀‘εFZO敦ノ・6θ微紹ε解・Ag擁‘¢‘㌃駕惚‘Zπ41批！Z‘；ε孟ブツ 37

T8ble4． CASH　INCOME　AND　EXPENDITURE　IN　SURV耳y　OFFARM　INCOME　AND　EXPENDITURE

1954 1955

TgtaLI血Comc Cask　hcome C箏h

IncO孤e

AveゴagβPer　Avcrage　Per　AU働China・Hou霞ehold　Household　Hou蔑eholds

（壷απ）（　（t響）

Average　PerH：ousehold

（即π）

A．Income　L　Agr至cultural顛comc

　　　a・qrqp　Husba旦dry

　　　b。　Ani恥al　Husbandw

　2。Subsidi軍y　In¢ustry　hcome・

　　　a・　qo翼ect加g，Fisb㎞9，Hu箆ting

　　　b・　Pアclimiロary，CroP　proc¢ssi畢9

　　　　　　　and・Handierafts

　　　c，旦hiゆ奨9，Tra亘5P・甑ti・n

　　　　　　　andCommerce

　3．Othe翠Ipcome（fromwages，！eases　　　　　andrqmittaロccs）

B。Expe臓ditqre・

　　　Expe旦d玩ur¢q無Prp¢翠ctio且Gqods

　　　Exp醇喚di亀urβgn　M¢aロs　for

　　　　　LivcHぬood

　　　Paymgnt　of　T4xe3

　　　0thers

1．

2。

3．

4．

692．9

420．6

172．8

99．5

667．7

156．2

454。0

35．4

22．1

263．1

138．4

96．8

41．6

33．4

　7．9

6．7

18．8

91．3

225．0

55，9

一M2．5

　5．5

　22．0

30．9

16，3

11．7

4．9

3．9

0．9

0．8

2。2

10，7

26．些

6．5

16．7

0，6

2，6

2些7．6

115．4

79．8

35．6

2些．5

　5．3

7．9

1，0．3

107．7

Notc；The　oxpa聡sion　to　aμ・China　hpuscholds　has　be㎝arr五vod　at　by　mαltiplying　t軸c

average五gU螂per　housβhold　byむhc　number　of　farm熱ousψolds三n　Chin＆血出atyear，117。33、川i塒Qn。』Singe嘘he　sμrv曼y　was　conducted　byミan¢o界sam章1ing，it　may憂e

considered皿ore　represe臥tativc　tha血　other　a！トChina　surveys・　4breakdαwn　of　cash　ex－

penditurc　is、give臓o耳ly血・t車e　ca鴫of　the　po耽至on　sp㎝t　on　pur｛毒h灸se　of　cqmmo（！ities，t尊柔s

comprisi具g27β％多or　p喚p4聾c填on－gqods　a且d72．2％£or皿e孕ns　for　Hveli虹ood．　Und曳r

“oth¢rs”・β塾c　incl騨d畦d　wag弓葺to夏ired　agricultural夏aboqr・P灸X寧｛壌ts　in　re蔑pect　to　loa尊sρf

mc飢sf・τP竃ρducti。阜・dμties、卿蜘隅1sewices・圭ntcrest・．9ifts・貧pd・therexpenditures・ltis

琿sumedゆat　aI1婁h馨c　c茜p㎝4iturcs　ar6i昇，cash，and，sin¢c　wβgaIquIate　the　non・agriculturaI

portion　of垣x　payln¢靴s（p頃d二in　casb）司t15哩5％in　ac¢rd鱒ce　with［28】，p，189，we皐鍵ve

included・thatp瞬ioロi蝕theacco鷲臓t・景scashexpe雌tu奪e・

sources3　16Pl，PP．3導　¢．鱒¢1221，PP。9τ証・

T3ble

5．BU

DGET

　PR

IGES　

AND　

PURCHASE　

PRICES　

OF　

AGRIGULTURAL　

PRODUCTS

鴇

1950

　　　19

5互　　　19

52　　　19

53　　　19

54　　　1955　　　

1956　

　　

1957

A．Food　Grains

　1．

　Budget　

Price　

Per　

lOO　

C毎πHsi”

liaBg（

鐸4η

）1　

　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　8。

49

　　

　（

Index。

1950＝

100〉

　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　

　　

　　

　　

　　

　　

　　

　　

100

　2．

Purcぬ

ase　

Price　

Inde

x　of

　Fo

od　Gm

i豆s　in　

the　Market　

Directly　

i皿　

　　　the　

Hands　

of　th

e　Fo

od　Min

istr

ア（we

ight

ed　aver

age＝

1950

＝10

0）2　

！00

　3．

　Gr

oup　

Index

　of

　Fo

od　

Crop

s　

with量

鳳AU

・Ch

ina

　Agricultural　

Products

　　

　　

Purchases　

I夏dex（

origi玖

a1血dex　

with　1952＝

100c

onve

rted

　to

　　　　I9

50＝10

0）3　

　　　

　　

　　

　　

　　

　　

　　

　　

　　

　　

　　

　　

，　

　　

　　

　　

　　

　　

　　

　、

100

　4．

Aver

age　

Gov

℃mme皿

t　

Purc

hase

　Pr

まce

s　

acco

rd…

ng　

to　

Rona

ld　

Hs至

a（男

4π）

農

　　

　　

　　

Rice（hu

sked

）

　　

　　

　　

Whea

t

　　　　　　Coarse

grains

B，Raw

　Co

tton

（ginn

ed）

　1．

Fiscal　Conversion　Rate　fQr1αまπofR・

aw　Cotton　to　Hsi。

1iang（

‘h‘

π）1・

10・33

　2．

Budget　Price『

for1

00C毎

πRa

w　Co

tton

5　　　　

　　

　　

　　

　　

　　

　8．

77

　3．

　1鳳

dex　

for　

Above：

1950＝！00　－　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　10

0

　4，

Tec

hn…

cal　

Cro

ps　

Grou

p　

Index

　wi

thin

　Al

l－Ch

加a　

Agri

cult

ural

　　　　Products　Pu

rc｝｝as

es　I豆

dex3

（or

igin

a1董nd

ex　w匡

th！

952＝

1QO

　　

　　

conv

erte

d　

to　

195

0＝＝

100）

　　

　　

　　

　　

　　

　　

　　

　　

　　

　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　100

　5．

Aver

age　

Gove

mme豆

t　Purchase　

Prices　

according　

to　Ronald　Hsia4

　8．

50　

　　

8。50

　　

　8．

57　

　　

8．57

　　

　8．

52・　

　8．

48　

　　

8．60

100．

1　　

100．

1　　

　101．

0　　

　！

Ol．

O　　

　IOO．

4　　

　99．9　　　101．3

：！7．

3　　　122．

7　　　131．

9

120．

7139．

7

8．46

　　

　8。

67　

　　

8．33

　　

　8．

60

9．09

　　

　9。

31　

　　

8．94

　　

　9．

24

8．46　　　8．

67　　　8．

33　

　　8．60

10。

43　

　　

10．

03　

　　

9．06

　　

　9．

37　

　　

8．98

　　

　9．

56　

　　

9．55

　8，

87　

　　

8．53

　　

　8．

67　

　　

8．03

　　

　7．

65　

　　

8．1！

　　

　8．

21

101．

1　　

　97

．2　

　　

98，

8　　

　91

．5　

　　

87．

2　　

　92．

5　　

　93。

6

111．

6

6、24　

　　

6．72　

　　

6。46　

　　

6．67

122．

5

§ 恥 b ミゆ ξ 養’

』蜜菖 §．鴇

Notes　

and　

Sources：

L　Ca

lcul

ated

£ro

m　th

e　ac

coun

ts　of　

the　

Agricultα

ral　

T亀x・

in　

terms　

of　

hsi・

1五ang　

andク

熈η

currency　

given　in　l281，

pp．153，

！89，and丘

om　the　

amount　levieα

op　raw　

cotton　expressed’

in　terms　

of　cotton　a馳

d　of　hs三4量

ang　

inl［

281，

pp．128，

177。

2。 3． 4． 5．

P80ρ

Z8，

5Dα

歪融

，　Mar

c五　1，

　19

54、

［271，

p．55。

【17】

，p．

49．

Calc腿lated三

by　

A－1×

B－L

T3ble6．REAL　IMPORT－EXPOR．

T　BALANCE　

OF　THE　

FARM　SECTOR

1952　　　　1953　　　　1954　　　　1955　　　　1956　　　　1957

A．Value　

of　Re

al　Im

por

ts－Ex

por

ts　at

　l952Pr置

ces（

thousand　

millionク

襯π

）

　　1。

　Exports＝

　1。

Agricultural　Tax（

呈n　

kind）

　　　　　　　　　　2．　Exports　

via　

the　

Mark

et：a．

．se

ries

（A）

　　　　　

　　

　　

　　

　　

　　

　　

　　

　　

　　

　　

　b．

sef三

es（

A）

　　

　　

　　　　　　3。

『ro

taL　

a，se

ries

（A）

　　　　　

　　

　　

　　

　　

　　

　b。

Series（

A）

　　

　　

　　

　　

　　

　　

　（

Purchase　

Price　

Inde

x　fo

r　Pr

oduc

ts　of

　Ag

r至cu

ltur

e

　　　　　　　　　　　　　　an

d　Sub

sidi

arie

s）

　　IL　　Imports：

　1．

　Manu£actured　

Good

s

　　　　　

　　

　　

　　

　　

（Reta圭

1Price　

Index　

for　

Rural　

Manufactured　Goods）

　　

　　

　　

　　

　　

2。Ag

ricu

ltur

al　

Pro

ducts

　　　　　　　　　　3．

State　

Investment　in

　Ca

pita

l　Co

nstr

ucti

on

　　　　　　　　　　　　　（Go

nstr

ucti

on　Cos

ts　

Index　

for　

St換

te騨

Operated　

Enterprises）

　　　　　

　　

　　

　4．

Tota

l

　II

I、Va

lue　

of　

Impo

rt　

Surp

lus：

a．se

ries

　　

　　

　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　b．

series

3．07

15．

61

12．54

18．

68

15．

61

（100。

0）

　10。47

（100．

0〉

　4．

23

　0．

60

（100。

0）

　15．30

－3．

38

－0．

31

2．80

15．48

12．

93

星8．

28

15．73

3。04

15．87

13。

20

18．

91

16。24

3。00

16．69

14．04

19．69

17．

04

2．68

16．77

14．47

19．45

17．15

2．93

17．

89

15．50

20．

82

18。

43

（110，

1）（113．

8）（113．

2）（116。

6）（122・

4）

　13．19　　　14。73　

　　14．93　　　17．12　　　16．56

（98．

5）（

1002〉

（101．4）（100．4）（10L6）

　4．

26　　　　4．

25　　

　　7．

86　　　　7．

89　　　　7．

92

　0。

81　　　　0，

48　　

　　0．

75　　　　1．

47　　　　1．

荏9

（94

．6）

　（

87．

0）　

（83．

0）　

（8LO）

　（

80・

0）

　18．

26　

　　

19．

45　

　　23．54　　　26．48　　　25．97

－0．

02　

　　

　0。

54　

　　　3、

85　　　　7．

03　　　　5，

15

　2．

53　

　　

　3．

21　

　　　6。

50　　　　9．

33　　　　7．

54

B。

Real　

Impo

rts

・Ex

port

s三

簸ter

ms　

of19

36－37Prices（

thousand　

m三1賦

o皿劃

απ

）

　　

1。　Exports＝

a，series（A）

　　

　　　　　　　b．

series（A）

　　　　

　　

　　

　　

　　

（Exp

ort　

Pr三

ce　

Inde

x）

　　

IL　　

Imports

　　

　　　（Impo耽Price　

Index）

　IIL　

Val

ue　

of　Im

por

t　Sur

plu

s：a，se

r三es（

A）

　　

　　　

　　

　　

　　

　　

　　

　　

　　

b．ser

ies（

A）

　8．

17

　6．

83

（228。

6）

　4．

62

（331．

3）

＿3．

55

＿2．

21

　8．

00　　　　8．28　　　

　8．

62　

　　

　8．

54　

　　

　9，

18

　6。

87　　　　7．09　　　

　7．

4委　

　　

　7．

51　

　　

　8．

10

（247．

9）（254．

9）（253，

8）（260．

3）（270・

5）

　5．

48　　　　5．84　　　

　7．

16　

　　

　7．

88　

　　

　7．

85

（33

6．6）

　　（342，9）　

　（

344．

6）　

　（

344．

9）　

　（

353，

2）

一2．

52　

　　

－2．

64　

　　－1．

46　　　－0．

66　　　－1．

33

－1．

39　

　　

－1．

25　

　　－0．

28　　　　0．

37　　　－0．

25

Note

s＝　Fo

r　a　

gene

ral　

acco

unt　

of　

the　

proc

edur

es　

empl

oyed

　呈

職the　compila

tion

　of　

thi

s　Ta

ble，

see　

the

　te

xt（

pp，

14ff

．）

．

Inde

x£gures　

under　

A　from［

27】

，PP。

55，

7LImport　

price　in4ex　under　

B　calculated　by

　th

e　fo

llow

ing　

pro－

cedures：

　1）

　In

dex　fi

gure

s　ar

e　g五

vea

　as　be

low

　in　

出e　

annual　

price・

1nde

x　fo

r　wh

oles

ale　

comm

odit

ies　

in　

T三entsin（

classi盒

ed　

according

to　de

gree

　of

　pr

oces

sing

）wi

th　July，1936to　

June　

1937　

as　

base

peri

od　co

mpil

ed　by

　th

e　In

stitute　of　

Economics，

Nank‘

ai　

Uni－

versity，

　In　

fact　

these　

annual　

figure

s　for　

1952　are　

averages　of

the　

mont

hly　

inde

x丘gu

res　

for　

Janu

ary－

March，

buち

as　

shown　

inthe　

example　

in　Figure2，

these　

mont

hly－prices　are　markedly

淘魯ミiii き忌無竃ミ餌頓 §

．ミ鳶貸鳶ミ義ぎ § 論港娼

stab

lo　

a亡d　

so　

theゾ

are　

used　

to　

represent　

the　

wholeゾ

ear．

（1血

dex

βgures　

converted　

to　Ne

w　Pe

oplc

，s粥

απ）

　　1．

　Ag

ric

ultur

al　

pfoducts　

　　

　　

　　　　　　　　227、

88　　2．

　Ot

灯er　

agr

icultu∬

盗l　

pτoducts　

　　

　　

　　

　　

　　

　　14

9．98

　　3．

Anim創

products　

　　　　　　　　22

4．25

　　4．・F6rcstryIp

r6du

ctS　

　　　　　　　　518も

07　

　5．

Manufactur王ng　lndustry　consumptio皿good

s494

．72

　　

6．

　Man

u£

acturing　

industry　

productionε

σods　

　　33

8・76

　2）

　In　

order　

to　m欲

ke　up

　a　

Paasc

he　ty

pe　in

dex

　for　

fa㎜

crs’

reご

efvi

ng　

pric

es　

and£

armers，

paying　

prices　

with1952weights

usin

g　th

es¢　βgur

e怠，

・蜘

e　ha

ウe，

in　

the　

case　

of　

far

mers，

卸eceiving

pri66

忌，ap

倉1i

dd　to　

the呂

bove　

commodity　

groups　

the　

weig

h£s　

O．80

to　gr

oup　

1，0。

06to　

group

2，

0。12

to　

grou

p3，

and　

O。02to　

group

4。Th

ese　

weig

hts　

have　

been　

d6termined　

bearing　

i且m1nd　the

comp

osit

ion　

we三

g五ts

　fo

ゴto

tal　

agr

icul

tura

l　

cons

umpt

ion　

in　

I27】

p．50

，wh

翌c　

i貸dudi喀

sdme　

conjectures、

The　

synth

esized1ndex

堤gu

re　fb

r195

2com

es　

out　

at2

28。

56．

As　

rega

rds　

the量

ndex

　of

£armers，pay圭

ng　P鍍

ccs，

　t賊

s　ha

s　be

en　ca

lcul

ated

　ta

king

　in

toco

ns玉

dera

tion

　th

e　co

mpos

itio

n　by

　mo

nths

　of　

the

　value　

of　

im－

ports

　i且

．19

52a

s　g董

ven　

in　

Tab19粟

，　

and　

apPlying　to

　th

e　ab

ove

co血mod

葺tソgr

oUps

ち11

e　

w4g

hts　

O．

57to　

glou

p5，

0。

15to　

group6，

and　O．28　

to　the

　price焦

（1e叢

　for　

agricultural　

prod

ucts

（4P

Prox

－im

atcd

　fr

om　

the

　ind

exσ

f£ar

m愈rs

’τ

ecei

vi豆

g　pri

ces）

。The　

syn－

thesized　index6gure

　co

mes　

out　

at33

1。30

。　

3）We　have　

co面pil6d　

by　th¢

following　methbd言

indi

ces　

for

£ar

mers

’re

cei

vin

g　an

d　

payin

g口

rices

『fo

r195

2－

57and　

have　

Hnked

them

　at

1952

with

　the漁

dicds血

the　

preceding　

para

graph．

Asrega

rds

垣rm

ers，

receiving　

prices，

we　

have　

synthesized　the　

pur－

chas

e　i血

dex　

£or

　ag

ricU

ltur

al　

and　

subs

孟di

ary　

pro

duc亡

s　give且

unde

r　A－

1－3　an

d　th

e　pr

i¢e　

in¢

ex　

fqで

agf

icul

tura

l　

products　

pa三

das

　Ag

ricul

tural

　Ta

x（priGe　

un益

ズed　

in　

accordan¢

e　wi

th　th

e　su

p－

position　i豆

tbe　

text）with　t塾

e　we三g翁

t　O。

836＝

0．164f

Gr　19

52。Tk

e£

arm

ers’pay

ing

　price玉

ndex　

has　

been　

synthesized　

from

　th

e　re

taiI

price

　i無

dex　

for　

rura1血

anufactured　

goods　

given　

under　

A－II

－1，

the　con

str

uctio

皿co

sts　

index　

given　

under　

A－II－

3，a血

d　th

e　pu

r－

chase　

index　

for　

agri

cult

ural

　an

d　s腿

bsid

iary　pfod

雇ct

s　given　

under

A－1－

3with　

the　

weig

hts　

Q．68

，0．

04，and

　O2

8for

1952

。

　　

　　

　　

　　

　　　　　　19

52　　19

53　　195

4　　19

55　

　1956　

　1957

　F含

r血ers

，r6

de玉vi

ng　

　pr

ice　

inde

x（P8

）　　

　　

100　

108・

4　　

111・

5　111・

0　

　113

・9　

　118。

3

　Fa

童m6

rs，pay

ing

　　

pr丑

ce互

ndex

（P恥

）　

　　

　10

0　　

101．

6　　

103，

5　　

104．

0　　

104。

1　106』

6

Table7」

・TR

ANSF

ERS　

OF　

REAL

　F】

［寅

ANCIAL

RESOURCFES　

AND　

TERMS　

OF「

密RADE　

EFF豆

CT，

1957

　　　　　　　　　　　（in　thoUsa塾d　mi職on鐸αη）

　（

A）

Base　Year

　1952

　（

B）

BaseY白

af　

1939－

37

L　Va！ue　of　Rea1（】ommodity　Imports＝

　　　ハ4／

Pη塾一E／

P8 aseries

bseries

4．37（

5。15

）

6。94（

7．54

）

2．Va1鵬

of　Transfゑrs　of　Real　F三

nancial

　　　Re

sour

ces＝

（M－

E）／P㎜

　　　　　　　　a8eries　

　　　　　　　　　　　　2．

43

　　　　　　　　b　

series　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　4．

91

3．Va1α

e　of　

Transfer　

of　

Resourcβ

s　due

　　　to　Terms　

of　Trade　

Effect：

　　　（EIPθ

）（Pθ

／P初

一1）

　　

　　

　　

　　

aseries

bseries

2．30

2．03

一L33

一〇．25

0．82

1．64

一2．

15

一1．

90

Notes＝

The£

ormula£

or　

calculation　

is　

given　

in　Section1。The

calc

ulat

ion　

data

　ar

e　fr

om　Ta

bles

　l　

and6．

The6gures　

ill　

cqlu四n（

A）11ave　

been　calculated　

o且the　basis　of

the　

inde

x且gu

res　

give

且in

　Ta

ble5

，　no

te　B一（3）・　Tも

e　

figures　

in

Section　

l　of　

the　

Table　

show　

the　

results　

of　

calcul

ation　

given　

i皿

Table5．

　As　

regaで

ds　

the　

calculation　

of　

the　

va夏

ue　of　the　

feal

impo

rt　su

rplu

s　i取

Tabl

e　6，

　si

nce　

it　is　a　synthesis　

of　

rea腫

zed

丘gures　

employing血

dex　

figures　

for　

each　

groロ

p　in

　the　

composi、

tlon　of五mports　and　

exports，

it　naturaIly　

produces　some　degree

of　deザiation　from　th¢resu玉ts　of　calculation　

giveぬin　this　Table・

8 § 恥 b き匙愚誌尊 § § §’

R650Z6名‘6EZO四6θ渉四6θノ～！i8ア∫‘％㌃％7θ4π41π4π5〃tソ 41

Tableε．MARKETED　RATIO　OF　FOOD　GRAINS

搬lu翻Agricultura1士axLevied　SoldtoS臨器£o冒opc「ative

（1）

Absolute　　　　　　　　　　　　Absolutc　　　　　　　（2）／（1）×100Figure

（2）　　　　（3）

　　　　　　　　（4）／（1）×100Figure（4）　　　　（5）

1950

1951

1952

182．O

I97．7

226．6

24．2

29．6

32．1

13，3

15。0

14．2

10．1

20．1

30．2

5．5

10．2

13．3

1953

1954

1955

1956

1957

229．2

240．3

259．5

27L5275．3

31．2

32。0

32。6

29．6

31．2

13，6

13．3

12．6

10．9

1L3

42．7

6！。2

55．0

44，0

56．8

18、6

25．5

21．2

16．2

20．6

！953－57　Total　　I，275．8 156．6 12．3 259。7 20．4

1958

1959

371．0

400．8

37，6

38．0

10．1

9．5

66．5

79．4

17．9

19．8

Estimation　Procedures；

　（1）　In［281，PP・128，177，the　value　of　total　food　productiou，including　beans，is　given

ill　terms　of　hsi－liang。From　this　we　have　fQund　the　total　food　production，excludillg　soybeans，

hl　terms　of　hsi・1iang，by　employing　the　conversion　rate　from　weighed　beans　to　hsi・Hang

given　in　l681，namely10L5％．The五gures　for1958and！959．have　been　 calculated　using　the

conversion　ratc　from　gross　food　gra血s（yUa夏四liang）to　hsi－liang　give紅in【281，namely72．4％・

　（2）　In【28」，PP。114・　168－169，五gures　for　the　amount’of　Agricultural　Tax　lcvied　in　food

grεしins（in　hsi4iang『terms）are　given　for1950　to　、1957。　Since　these　do　not　includc　Iocal

supp1㎝entary　taxes　we　have　used　the　data■egard血g　total　loc飢supplementary　taxes

g圭ven　in［281，pp。153，189，and　have・expanded　the．行gures、寵o　include　locaLsupplementary

taxes卜assuming　that　the　proportion　of　these　taxcsユevied　in£ood　gねins　was　the．same　as　in

tぬe　case　o鉦he　Agr三cultural　Tax．丁血e£gures　foτ1958have　been　est圭mated　on、the．basis

of　the　statement　in｛33】，p、21，that　in1958the　Agricultural　Tax　and　local　supplementary

taxes　amounted　to3。7thous鋤d　millio瞼鋼απ．　For　the．purposes　of　estimation　we　have

assumed　thaいthc　proportion　of、Agricultural　Tax　a職d　supplemcntary　taxes．．levicd　in

food　grai且s　was84・55％，the　average　for　the　period　of』血e．First　Fivc－year　Plan，and　that

’血e　budgeted　un呈t　price　pcr・100‘h言陀of　hsi曽1iangT・was♪8．5壬2クμα諺ンthc　ave聾age　for　the　periQd

of　the　FirsレFive・Ycar　Plan．．The．6gure　obtained737．6　thousand　milliQn　6属π，represents

a血ipcrease・of20，5％over1957，and　is　agood　deal　more　lth鍛expected4．5％meationed　in

［31】，p．．6、　For1959it　is　stated　in［34しヱthat　the・三ncome　from　tllc　Agricultural　Tax　was

3．3thousa且d．mi田onク襯π，Thisξs　tぬe　same　as　the丘gure　given．油1331．We　assume　that

thc　budgcted　local　supplementary　taxes　were　also　the　same，at　O，4をthousand　mi11ion　J麗π、

Wc　convert　thc　total　of3．7益thousand　m三IliQnクααη』i箕to　t駐e　q犠antity　Qf　food．grains　lcviむd

in　payment　of　taxes（in　terms．of　lhsi－Hang）by　the5ame　proccdure　as　above、

　（4）For1953マ1955εWc、ぬave　sub繊c亡ed　t五e痘gurcs重鷺co1ロmn2）from　the、total　value

of　food　gra玉ns　levied　as　taxes　or沈aken　i皿≦by　purchase　by　fhe　State（73．9　thbusand　miIlion

クμαπin1953，93．2．三n1954，and－87」6・in1955）in血si－Hang・terms．（excluding　beans）as　given

血［57】・　For1950－1952；ら［54L　夢。16Lαn通　回2】，｛》・3L　givc　the　蜀dllowing　血dex　丘gures，

respβctively・㌧（The；methods＝cmployed　i夏fthc　ca！β腿1ation　of　tkesc　Gbod　gra㎞s，arc　not　speci丘cd，

42 Th6　Z：）θτノεJo汐ぎng　E60πo”3∫65

AND　BREAKDOWN（in　bi皿ioll　cattics　of　hsi騨1iεm9）

　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　Total　M：arketedSo1（l　in　Free　Market　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　Food　Grains

0伍cia1FigureofMarketed　　Ratio　of　Food　Grains

鵠継e（6）／（1）×1・・A離e（8）／（1）×1・・HuiLingch‘uch‘ing　TcκT

　　（6）　　（7）　　　（8）　　　（9）　　　（10）　　’（11）　　（12）

32．5 17．9 66．8 36．7 18．7＊

20．4＊

18．1＊ 23．4

16，2

4，6

4．9

12。2

7．1

1．9

1．9

4。5

90，1

97．8

92，5

85．8

88．0

39．3

40．7

35．6

31．6

32．0

25．0＊

26，0＊

25．2

30．8

26．7

29．1＊

31．0＊

27，1＊

25、1＊

37．8 3．0 454．2 35，6

7．6 1，9

104．1

125．0

28．1

31．2

but　it　is　assumed　th飢they　are　the　same　as　used　in　the　Table．）

To凱I　volume　of　food　graills　purchased

　by　the　State

Total　volume　of　food　gra血s　levied　as

　taxes　or　purchased　by　the　State

1950

100

1951

200

1952　　　　　1953

350。32　　　　424．4

　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　100　　131．04　1，67．16

0f　these　the　former　makes　it　possible　for　us　to　arrive　at　the　Hgures　given玉n　the　Table

by　us三ng　the　above－cited丘gures　for1953。（ln［50】£or1953，the　value　of　total　purchases　in1953

is　giv㎝as29％over1952，w，hich　d逓ers£rom　the　increase　of21．44％at　which　we　arrived

frQm　the。above－cited　series7but加．the　prese且t　case　we　adopt　the　lattcr　figαre。）耳xtrapolating

by　the　latter　series　the五gure　of　34r・3thousand　mi1Eon6hεη1evied　and　purchased　in　1950

0btained　by　adding　column2）in　the　Table　to　the　volume　of　food　grains　purchased　in1952，

we　get45，0thousand　mil賎on6h動for1951and57。3for1952，respect量vely10。3％and8。0％

more　than　the　total　of　columns2）and3）in　the　Table，旦amely49。6thousand　milHon6伽

in1951and62・3in1952・For1956：We　have　adopted　the　statcme塾t　in［50】，for　l956，

“Since　in　1956the　State　Hghtened　the£乱rmers’duties　in　regard　to　the　levying　and　taking

in　by　purchase　of　food　gra1ロs，the　volume　of　food　gra三ps　levied　or　take且in　purchase

dec五ned　by　16％from　the　previous　ye＆r。，’（The　total　value　for　that　year　thus　becomes73・6

thousand　mi1五〇n‘hiη、）For1957：We　have　found　the　difference　between　column2）and　the

Hgure　of88，0thousand・mi1五〇n‘伽given　in　the　statement　in　the　editorial　in　the　P80μθ，5

Pα吻Qf　the27th　of　September，1958；“The　govemment血as　already　dccided　that　inspite　of

the　greatly　increased　productiQn　of　food　ill　this　year　it　wi11maintain　u旦changed　the　level

of88。O　thousan（l　mil且Qn‘h砒1evied　or　taken　in　by　purchase　duri臆g　Iast　year．”　FQr　1958：

We　can　work　out　the丘gures　directly　because　it　is　stated　in［52］，p．11，that　the　value　of

food　gra㎞s　purchased　by　thc　State　and　Co・operative　Commerce、ま皿that　year　was17％、

over　the　previous　year．FoL1959r　We　have　ad6pted　the　statement．iu　l21L　p．28that

State　purchases　of　food　in　that　year　werO　l9。4％more　than　in　the　previous　year，

　（6）For1950：We　Lave　adopted　the五gure6f66。8thousand　mi1Hon‘hゑπfor£ood　le頭ed

or　takeΩiロby　purch4sc　i鉱　1950．as　given、，in　［551，P．149，and．have　arrived　at　our　丘gures

R650μκεFIJo卿66伽661～11g痒α〆伽で碗4Z裾％5妙 43

by　subtracting　from　it　the．且gures　columns2）and4）in　the　Table、This　source　colltains

no　specific　information　as　to　the　scope　of　food　grains　co》ered，the　units　employed，etc．，

but　since　the丘gure　of105．92thousand　m三1Hon　ohεπfor　1958given　in　the　same　column　is

similar　to　the　sum　of　columns2）and4）in　the　Table，104・1thousand　mi11ion‘h肋，we

have　assumed　th昂t　the　scope　of　food　gr呂bs　covered，units　employed，etc，，are　t｝1e　sε㎜e　as

量n　the　Table，［441states　that　approximately　half　of　the　value　of　food　graips　taken　in　by

purchase　in1950was　undertaken　by　private－enterprise　foQd　merchantsεmd　processing£actories．　This　sum　is　stated　to　have　been　two輪th1rds　of　thc　value　of　national　retail

trading　and73．8％　of　tQtal　pr1ced　value　Qf　foods　processed，and　we　m＆y　be　justi丘ed　in

assuming　t血at　it　includes　the　value　of　food　grains　levied呈n　taxes、　Making　this　assumption，

the　volume　of　sales　in　t耳e　free　market　as　shown　in・the　Table　occupies48。7％of　the　total

volume　of　commerciaHzed£ood　grains，and　more　or　Iess　Htted　with　the丑gure血［44］．

Figures　for　1953and　1954　hεしve　been　calculated　on　the　assumption　that　the　proportion　of

sales　to　the£ree　market　w三thin　the　value　of　food　grains，raw　cotton，and　oil　crops　levied

as　taxes　and　sold　in　these　two　years（18．0％for1953and47％for1954）can　be　applied

to　food　grains．Th6丘gures　for1954and　thereaf毛er　are　entirely　estimates，arrived　at

bearing　in　mind　the　foIlowing　changes　in　the　food　control　system　as　we11as　the　move・

me加血total　sales　of　food　gra短s　in　t血e　free　market　shown　in　Table　L

　a）In“Provisiona互Mcasures£or　Food　Market　AdministratiQn　of　January，1953”【471

it　is　laid　down　thatl　peas乱nts　may　dispose　of　the　surplus　of　food　grains　remaining　to

them　after　payment　of　taxes　a皿d　planned　purchases　by　1）using　it　freely，2）stQring　it，

3）se1鮭ng　it　to　State　or　Go・operative　Commerce　or　put血g　it　on　the　St飢e　food　market，or

4）using　it　in　the　rural　areas　in　sma11－quantity　exchanges£or　the　purposes　of　equalizing

lQcal　surpluses　and　scarcities。The　Statc£ood　markets　are　Qperated　under　State　supervi・

s1Qn，and　thQse　who　are　allowed　to　buy　in　these　markets　are　the　inhabitants　of　towlls　and

cities，and　such　of　the　hotels，restaurants　and　pτocessing五rms　in　the　small　towns　and

cities　as　have　been　granted　permission。The　tmding　coming　under3）and4）in　the　above

is　represented　in　the　Table　as　the　free　market　transactiQns　in1954and1955。

　b）　No　changes　in　a）above　are　a（1ded　iτ夏［481．

　c）　The“Directive　on　the（～μestion　of　Relaxing　the　Admi馳istration　of　the　Rural　Market

of　Ocεober，　1956”　［451　0rigillaIly　prescribed　the　freeiηg　of　tぬe　markeε　for　material　goods

other　than　those　subject　to“Planned　taking血by　purchase，，　and　“uni最ed　tak玉ng　in　by

purchase，”but　it　is　beHeved　that　in£act　material　goods　apPertai且ing　to“Planned　tak血9

h　by　purchase”came　into　the　free　market。（See　the　preamble　to　the　ProvisiQns　in　the

follow三ng　item・）　The　degree　to　which・this　took　place　is　not　known・but　here　it　is　taken

as　being　half　of　the　marketed　ratio　on　the　frce　market　i且the　years　I953and1955．

　d）　In“Provisions　Disallow血g　the　Entry　to　the　Free　Market　of　Agricultural　Products

and　Other　Material　Goods　Subject　of　State　Planned　Purchase　and　Uni丘ed　Pu1℃hase　of

August，1957”［461，the　selling　of£ood　in　the　market　was£orbidden，and　it　could　be　sold

only　at　the　shops　for　taking　in　by　purchase　designated　by　the　State・　In　those　regions

where　the　supply－and－demand　s董tuation　had　eased　State£ood　markets　m三ght　be　set　up

u且der　the　Provincial　administrations，but　this　was　not　geperaL

　e）Food　transactions　in　the“markets”reopened　under　the　Directive凹of　the　Central

Com疏丘ttee　of　tke　Chinese　Communist　Partアand　tke　St＆te　Council　may　be　regarded　as

similar　to　these　transactiQns　in　the　fbrmer　St＆te£ood　mαrkets．

　（8）　Total　of　columps2），4），and6）。

　　（10）　［65］、The　asterisk　indicates　that　the　figures　are　in　terms　of£ood　years，

　　（11）　［111．

　　（12）　　［61】．

丁昌ble

9．qUANTITI昇S　

IOF　

FOOD　GRAINS　AVAILABLE　

FOR　

PER　

CAPITへ

FARM

AND　

NON－

FAR

M　

POPULATION

云

State　

Statistical　

Bureau’

s　Data1

」．

L。

BuckPs　

Study2

1953

－54

　　

1954

－55

　　

1955

－56

　　

1956

－57

Aver

ageforthe

　Fo

ur　Years

1949－

58　　1929－33

1． 2． 3． 4． 5． 6． 7． 8．

Prod

ucti

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unprocessed）

（MMT）

Reduction　

Factor　

for　

Processing（3）／（1）

？roduction（

かro

cesse

d）（MM

T）

TotalquantityAv

ail

able£

orF

6・αGr

alns

（MMT〉

Factor　

for　

Food

　Us

c（4）

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tity

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Num

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fn旦

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’Qu

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ty　

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Pe鷲

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Rural　

Population（kg。）

9．　

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10。 1L 12。

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for　

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皿i1Ko血

5）

166．

75、

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855

142．

53

111．

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ユ86

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7

206．

2

（279）

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　（187）

4　　　　　（199）

4

　　　　　　　（193）

5

18．51　　　18。45　　　　19．47

76．

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§ 恥 b…

ii 無尽ミ・

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ii ロミミ’

物

Noteも

＝塒

且gu

「es

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a「e。

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・d飴

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feed。

We魍

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that

　th

e五gu

警es

　gi

ven　

foセ1952－

53包

re262kg。

and　

for1949approximately200kg．

S・urces＝

L［6異

】，

P）．2臼，31．

2．［31

，PP

．71

－72

，68

－70．

3．［

61，

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4。［

24】

，1601，

5。［

531．

6．【

62］

．

Table10．

CHAN

GES　

IN　MA

RKET

ED　RA

TIO　

OF　FO

OD　GR

AINS　DUE

　　

　　　　TO　CHANGES　

IN　INCOME　DISTRIBUTION

Members　

of　Poor　Peasants，　M丑

ddlc　

　Rick　　Formcr　Total　

orCo－oporatives　　　Labourcrs　

　　Peasants　

Peasants　Lan【llords　Average

A．・

1954

g

　I．Proport三

〇n　

of　

Agricultural　

Popula

tion

（％）

　2，

　Av

erag

e　Gu

ltiv

atcd

　La

Ed　Pcr

　Ca

pita（

耀oμ

）　3・

　ProporもioR　

of　Total　

Cultivated　Ar

ea（％）

　4，

　Av

erag

e　Fo

od　Con

sump

tio夏

Per　

Capi

ta（

6み勉

）　5。

Food　

Marketed　

Ratio（

％）

B． c．

6。　Market6d　

Food　

Grains　

as　

Proporti

on　of　Total（

％）

7．工．

2。 3． 4． 5． 1． 2． 3．

　（

Agricu！

tural　

Income　

Per　

Capita）

（鐸

αη）

OB　

Consumption　

of　

Land　

R．cform

　Proportion　

of　

Agricultural　

I》opulatiQn（

％）

　Ave

rage

　Cu

ltiv

ated

　Lεmd　Per

　Ca

pita

（η

～oμ

）

　ProportiQn　of　Total　

Cultivated　Area

　To

tal　

Mark

cted

　Ra

tio　

Assu

ming

　Rate

s　fo

r　

　Each　Stratum　

Were　the　

Same　as　in

195生

（％）

　M：

arke

ted　

Food

　Gm

ins　

as　Pr

opor

tion

　of

　To

ta1，

　　on　Same　Assumption　as　Above（

％〉

Befbr

e　Lan

d　Re

fbrm

　Proportion　of　Total　

Cultivated　

Land

Totai　

Marketed　

Ratio，

on　

Sゑme　

Assumpt呈

on　as　B－

4（％）

Marketed　

Food　

Grains　

as　

Proportion　of　Total，

　on

　Sa

me　As

sump

tion

　as

　Ab

ove（

％）

　4．

2

　3．

17

　4．

1

391 30．

0

　4．

2　

（4．

9）

（466。

4）

29．0

　2．

68

23．6

353

22。

1

　18．

2

（20．6）

（27

2．6）

57．6

2．97

52．

2［

46．6

17 10．6

62．2

　3．54

66．8

378

25。2

　2．1

　5．

03

　3．

2

413

43．1

　2．5

　3．

05

　2，

3

361 28．1

　67．2　

　　　　

　8．2　　　　　　2．0

（65。6）　　　　　

（5．

3）、

　　

　　

（2．

6）

（479，7）　　「（860。

6）　

　　

（286。

0）

35．

73．80

41，

1

3．6

4．05

4．4

2，6

2．88

2．3

100．

0

　3。

29

100。

0

373

25．

7（25．3）

100．

0

（420、

6）

100．

0

　3．

30

100．

0

24．

8

43．2　

　　　　　7．

7　　　　　　2。

6　　　　　　100

2518　　　40

100

（35。3）

17．

8　　

　　

　　

22．

0　　

　　

　　

49．

6　　

　　

　　

　10

0

Notes

＝The

　d1

vis呈

on三nto　

stねta

　in　

the　

Tabl

e　is

　in

　te

rms　

of　

that

　cl

ass…

6cat

iQn　

whic

h　is

　pe

cul圭

ar　

to　

Chi訟

a，and　

does　

not皿

ecessarily

cor

resp

ond　

to　

inc

omes

　or

　th

e　di

stri

buti

o臓of

　We

alth

．As

　re

gard

s　th

e　Hg

ures

　in

　br

acke

ts　

give

n　un

der　

A－6，

the　

prQp

Qrti

on　

of　

mark

eted

fbod

　gr

ains

　as

　ca

lcul

ated

£ro

m　A－

2and

　A－

50n出

e　as

s砥mp

tion

　th

at　

food

「pr

oduc

tion

　pe

r　un

it　

of　

cult

ivat

ed　

area

　is

　co

nsta

nt，

and　

the

proportion　of　total£

ood　

grains　markct　in　such　a　

case，arc　

given　

undcr　

A－4，

For　

B－1a

pd　B－

2・In

　th

e　or

iginal

　so

urce“

others・

・is　

given　

under　

the　

strata　

classificat葦

on・

C－1is　

the　

same・This　includes　those　who

let　out

　sm

aII　

piec

es　of　Ian

d　to

　te

nants，

£ar

mers

　wh

o　al

so　

act　

as　

pett

y　tr

ader

s　an

d　ha

ndic

raft

　ma

nu£

acturers，

and　

the　

Iike。

However，

F t

heir　weight　is　marke41y　smal1，

and　

they　have　been　omitted　

from　the　

calculation　

in　order　

to　preserve　comparabi1三ty　with1954．

For　

B－2・

In　th

e　or

igin

a正sourc

e　these　

are　

given　

as　

per£

armer，

but　

we　

have　

arrived　

at　

our五

gures　

on　the　assumption　that　the

population　per君

arm　

household　

at　the　

time　of　the　

completio豆

the　

Land　Rc最）rm　was　

the　

samle　

as　i塾

　1954・

For　

B一婆，and　

B－5・

Arrived　

at　u血

der　

same　assumptions　

as　A－

6・Fo

r　C－

L　

Ave

rage　

gcne

ral

丘gu

res£

or　

the　

Central　

South　

Rcgion　

and　

Sou山

West　

Regioロ

as　

given　

in　

l28】

（β

rst　

edition）

，pp。118－

120．

Cons

eque

ntly

　th

e　cal

cula

tion

s　bas

ed　

o且th

is　

and　

give

n　un

der　

C－2　

and　

C－3a

re　

hypo

thet

ical

　va

1“es

・For　

C－2a

nd　G－

3・Ar

rivc

d　at

　un

der　

the　

same

　as

sump

tion

s　as

　A－

6・So

urce

；　

［60

】ex

cept

　wh

ere　

spe

ciHe

d三n　th

e　no

tes。

肉翁ミミき忌寓弩禽爲』偽、い1■

ら黛黛黛鳶 § 匙守 § 畏壁含

46 Thθ　D8η8Jq戸∫2zg　E60πo〃3ゼ83

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加oあκ襯gψαo（Communiqu6by　the　State　Statistical　Bureau　of　the　Govemment　of　thePeople，s　Repub1症c　of　China　on　thO　Results　of　the　ImplementatiQn　of　the　Plans£or　the

National　Economy）・［The　Communiqu6was　published　for　the　years1952－53to1956respectively　by　the　Financまal　and　Economic　Publishing・Company　（£or1952－53〉and　the

Statlstical　Publishing　Company（1954－1956）］．

［51］　　　　　　　，κ郡4η・ジ髭　Fα一‘h4π　κ衡〇一勉∫η　Oh伽g一‘配　あ　丁歪一みたo　レ侶ε‘一漉8π　（1953一η勿π　畝0　1957■π歪8η）

Oh∫一加40hlた一h5聰（ンhi召ゐ一肋oあκ襯g．幽o（Communiq腿60n　the　Results　of　Carrying　Out　the

First　Five・Year　Plan£or　the　Development　of　the　Nat呈ona！Economy，19534957），OHT（7，

19597No．4，

［52］　　　　，“Kuo－chia　T‘ung・chi－ch蔵K・uan・yU　Kuo－min　Ghing－chi　Fa・chIm　Ch‘ing－

k‘uang　ti　Kung－pao”（The　State　Statistical　Bureau’s　Communiqu60n　the　Developmeutof　the　National　Economy　in1958），OET（7，1959，No。7．

［53］　　　　，（Department　of　Agricultural・Statistics），1V即gッ8hπo魂o・3h81955・ηiθπ掘襯g一

ッ8h温o一孟50一訪8Sho8・∫F8η・ρ‘8‘∫歪丁‘襯g一‘雇丁ζ2‘一‘彪o（The　Co・operativizat量on　of　Agriculture　and

Statistical　Data　Relating　to　the　Distribution　of　Retums　by　Agricultural　Go－operatives，

Peking，Statistical　Publish沁g　Company，1957．

［54］　　　　　　，　“Ssu－nien－1ai　Kuo－chia　Lia亘9－shih　Shou・kou　ho　Kung－ying　Kung鱒tso　ti

Gh‘ing－k‘uang”（The　State　of　the　Govemment　Work　of　Procurement　and　Supply　of　Food

Grain　in　the　Last　Four　Years），HHyP，195生，No．4。

［55］　　，晦・直傭Sh歪h一伽一〇hμη4・h即／8π一油撫η9・ゐ・・乃㍑oC枷9一‘h歪h・防π・h襯Ch‘8π・

5h8（ンh‘8ηg一σhi鉱琵　丁‘2‘ηg・oh歪（Ten　Gre＆t　Years－Statistics　of　the　Economic　an｛l　Cultural

Ackievments　of　the　People’s　Republic　of　China），Peking　People’s　Publishing　Compaay2

1959．

［56］Sun　Wci．tsu，“Pien－chih　Liang．shih　Liu・chuan　Chi・hua　ti　YUan－tse”（Drawing　Up

the　Principles　for　Planned　Food　Circulation），（7H（7（7，1958，げNo・2・

［57］T‘細Chen4in，“Kuan・ya　Wo・kuo　Nung・min　Shou・ju　Chζing・k‘uan　ho　Sheng・kuoShui－p‘ing　ti　Ch‘u・pu　Ye聡・chiu”（A　Preliminary　Study　of　Incomes　and　Levels　of　Living

R850z躍‘8FZoω6εオωθ6πノ生g擁o％㌃z‘rεαπ4乃z4z‘5≠勿y 49

among　the　Peasant　of　Our　State），珊PyK，1958，No，1L

［58］　TCKTンData　Section，‘‘Chieh一£ang・hou　Ch‘a2mg－kuo　Kung－Nung－yeh　Shang－p‘inChia－ko　Chien－tao－ch‘a　I》ien－hu翫Ch‘ing－k‘uang”（Changes　in　the　Price－Scissors　Di鉦erencial

between　Commodities　Produced　by　Industry　and　Agrlculture£or　the　Whole　of　Chinasince　the　Liberatio血），TαζT，1957，No。17．

［59］　　　，“1949－1956・nien　Wo－kuo　Jen－k‘ou　T‘ung－chi　Tzu－liao”（Statistical　Data£or

the　Population　of　China，1949－1956），TOκT，1957，No。11。

［60］　　　　，“195手一nien　Nung－chia　Shou・chih　Tiao・ch‘a　Chien－yao　Tzu－1iao，，（Abridged

Data　from　the1954Farm　Receipt　and　Expenditure　Survey）ジT（ンKT，1957，No．19、

［61］　　　，“Wo－kuo　Liang－shih　T‘ung－kou　T‘ung・hsiao　ti　Chi－pen　Ch‘ing－k‘uang”（The

Basic　Situ統tion　in　the　Controlled　Purchase　and　Consumption　of　Food　in　Our　State），

TCKT，1957，No。19．

［62］　TCYC，Data　Section，“1957－nien228・ko　Nung－yeh　Sheng－ch‘an　Ho－tso・she　Shou－i

Fen．pei　Tien－hもing　Tiao・ch‘a　Tzu－1iao”（Data　from　a　Sample　Survey　Qf　Distribution　of

Retums　by228Agricultural　Producers’Co’operatives　in1957），T（7｝℃，　1958，No・8・

［63］　　　　　，“1957・nien　Kluo・nei　Shih・ch‘ang　Shang・p‘i豊Liu－chuan　Kai”k‘uang”（The

General　State　of　the　Flow　of　Commodities　into　the　Domestic　Market　in1957），Tαq

1958，No，4，

［64］　　　，“1957－nien　Shih・ch‘ang　Wu－cha　Pien－hua　Ch‘ing・k‘uang　chi　ch‘i　tui　Jen－min

Sheng－huo　ti　Ying・hsiamg”（The－State　of　Market　Changes　in1957and　Their　Influenceon　the　Life　of　the　People），TCyC，1958，No。4．

［65］　Tseng　Ling，“NungPts‘un　Ho－tso喝hua　KaQ－ch‘ao－chung　ti　Nung－ts‘un　Shih－ch‘ang”

（The　Rur争1Market　at　the　High　Tide　of　Co・operativization），COyO，1956，No．2。

［66］Wang　Kuang－wei，“Tui・y茸An・p‘ai　Nung－ych　Lao－t㎜lg－1i　ti　I・chieゴ，（An　Opinlon

Regarding　the　Disposition　of　Agricultural　Labour　Force），0螂（ン（7，1957，No。8．

［67］Wang　P‘ing，“Wo－kuo　Tzu－yu　Shih－ch‘ang　ti　Fan－wei　chi　ch‘i　Pie且・hua，’（The

Scope　of　the　Free　Market　in　Our　State　and　the　Changes　Taking　Place　in　lt），TOκT，1957，　No．　1L

［68］Wu　Po，“Kuan－yU　Chung・hua　Jen－min　Kmg・ho・kuo　Nung－yeh－shui　T‘iao・1i（Ts‘ao、ap）

ti　Shuo－ming”（Explanation　of　the（Draft）Regulations£or　the　Agricultural　Tax　of　the

People’s　Republic　of　China），EHPy瓦1958，No。12．

　　ABBREVIATIONS：σCYσ＝Ch‘ηg－6雇y8π一‘h勉（Economic　Research）．（協CO＝（ンhε一

　　h瓢σh聰一‘h乞（Plamed　Economy），　OHT（ン＝Ch2・h嘱卿　丁‘μηg－oh言（Planning　and

　　Statistics）．　EπPyK二丑5伽一h即Pαπ一頭8かえ‘朋（New　China　Semimonthly）、　EHyP＝

　　磁π一h即y勲一伽（New　China　Monthly）．TCκT＝7’‘襯g・6hゑ飾πg一∫50（Statistical

　　　Activities）。CEyC＝T‘㈱g－oh‘Y8箆・‘雇μ（Statistical　Research）、

NOTE

The　equation　in　the　Ishikawa

should　read

乱rticleonpage5

苦一藷歯㌃E＋畏（藷一ヱ）

Aga血，auotller　equation　o∬　the　same　page，in

Foot一ゑote4，shouldread

　　　　　暑一砦＝E元M＋考（舞一1）

RESOURCE FLOW BETWEEN AGRICULTURE AND INDUSTRY

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